<p>Saturated hydraulic conductivity (<em>K</em>_<em>s</em>) is among the most important soil properties that influence the partitioning of rainfall into surface and subsurface waters and is needed for understanding and modeling hydrologic processes at the field-scale. Field-scale variability of <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> is often represented as a lognormal random field, and its parameters are assessed either by making local- or point-scale measurements using instruments such as permeameters and infiltrometers or by calibrating probabilistic models with field-scale infiltration experiments under natural/artificial rainfall conditions. This research quantifies the uncertainty in the <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> random field when using observations from the above techniques and provides recommendations as to what constitutes a good experiment to assess the field-scale variability of <em>K</em>_<em>s</em>. Infiltration experiments with instruments sampling larger areas (or volumes) are typically expected to be more representative of field conditions than those sampling smaller ones; hence, the uncertainty arising from the field-scale natural rainfall-runoff experiments was evaluated first. A field-averaged infiltration model and Monte Carlo simulations were employed in a Bayesian framework to obtain the possible <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> random fields that would describe experimental observations over a field for a rainfall event. Results suggested the existence of numerous parameter combinations that could satisfy the experimental observations over a single rainfall event, and high variability of these combinations among different events, thereby providing insights regarding the identifiable space of <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> distributions from individual rainfall experiments. The non-unique parameter combinations from multiple rainfall events were subsequently consolidated using an information-theoretic measure, which provided a realistic estimate of our ability to quantify the spatial variability of <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> in natural fields using rainfall-runoff experiments. </p> <p>  </p> <p>With the resolving ability from rainfall-runoff experiments constrained due to experimental limitations, the <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> estimates from in-situ point infiltration devices could provide additional information in conjunction with the rainfall-runoff experiments. With this hypothesis, the role of three in-situ point infiltration devices --- the double-ring infiltrometer, CSIRO version of tension permeameter, and Guelph constant-head permeameter --- was then evaluated in characterizing the field-scale variability of <em>K</em>_<em>s</em>. Results suggested that <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> estimates from none of the instruments could individually represent the field conditions due to the presence of measurement and structural errors besides any sampling biases; hence any naive efforts at assimilating their data (e.g., data pooling, instrument-specific transforms, etc.) and augmenting with field-scale rainfall-runoff observations as informative prior distributions would not be fruitful. In the absence of benchmarks establishing the true <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> field, it is also impossible to quantify these errors; therefore, a posterior coarsening method was used to alleviate their impact when estimating the field-scale variability of <em>K</em>_<em>s</em>. </p> <p>  </p> <p>Finally, the impact of censored moments on the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> distribution parameters was studied. Results highlighted the rainfall event's ability to only be able to resolve a fraction of the <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> field, and that the time and duration of peak rainfall intensity play a role in resolving the <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> field, besides the peak rainfall intensity. The reliability of the ML estimates is a function of the fraction of the <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> field resolved by the rainfall event, until a limit when the estimates start to overfit the calibration data. Rainfall-runoff experiments for which the ML estimates resolve 30--80 % of the <em>K</em>_<em>s</em> distribution are likely to be good calibration events. </p>

Planning and design of stormwater facilities (including best management practices and low impact development) involve the calculation of peak flows and runoff volumes. Rainfall-runoff models are frequently utilized to estimate this information. A userriendly rainfall-runoff tool (LIDIA) was developed using Visual Basic for Applications in Microsoft Office Excel. This research showed comprehensive guidelines on how to setup a model in LIDIA and reported the first evaluation of LIDIA using field data. LIDIA hydrologic module was tested using 10-minute rainfall, land cover, soil series, land cover management, and runoff data from two small watersheds in North Mississippi. Eleven storm events, over a period of seven months were used for the one evaluation site and 11 storm events were used for the second case study. Overall the development and results of LIDIA tool showed in this study are positive in keeping the enhancement of the model.

In the Spring of 2012, hydraulic data was collected to calibrate three types of discharge models: stage-discharge, single-regression and multi-regression index velocity models. Unsteady flow conditions were observed at the site (â H/â t = 0.75 cm/min), but the data did not indicate hysteresis nor variable backwater effects on the stage-discharge relation. Furthermore, when corrected with a datum offset (α) value of -0.455, the stage-discharge relation r2 was equal to 0.98. While the multiple regression index velocity models also showed high correlation (r2 = 0.98) values, high noise levels of the parameter index velocity (Vi) complicated their use for the determination of discharge. Because of its reliability, low variance and accessibility to students, the stage-discharge model [Q = 5.459(H-0.455)^2.487] was selected as the model to determine discharge in real-time for LEWAS. Caution should be used, however, when applying the equation to stages above 1.0m. The selected discharge model was applied to ADCP stage (H) data collected during three runoff events in July 2012. Other LEWAS models showed similar discharge values (coefficient of variation = 0.14) while the on-site weir also produced similar discharge values. Precipitation estimates for July 19 and 24 rain events over the Webb Branch watershed were derived from IDW interpolated rain data and rainfall-runoff analyses from this data yielded an average ratio of 0.23, low for the urbanized watershed. However, since the three LEWAS models were very similar, and the on-site weir showed a lower value to LEWAS, it was concluded that any error in the ratio would be attributed to the precipitation estimate, and not the discharge models developed in this study. / Master of Science

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第25252号 / 工博第5211号 / 新制||工||1994(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 堀 智晴, 教授 佐山 敬洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

Der Einsatz von hydrologischen Modellen zur Unterstützung von Planung und Betrieb von Entwässerungssystemen ist als Stand der Technik anzusehen. Realitätsnahe und sichere Modellergebnisse stellen dabei die Grundlage für eine zielgerichtete Entscheidungsfindung dar. Nur durch eine Kalibrierung können Parameter von konzeptionellen Modellen zur Berechnung des Niederschlag-Abfluss-Prozesses an die Randbedingungen des zu simulierenden technischen oder natürlichen Systems angepasst werden. Auch wenn die Kalibrierung eines Modells entscheidend zur Erhöhung der Realitätsnähe beiträgt, kann diese durch unterschiedliche Faktoren beeinflusst werden. Dies ist darauf zurückzuführen, dass bei hydrologischen Modellen nicht ausschließlich deterministische Gleichungen mit physikalisch basierten Parametern eingesetzt werden. Wesentliche Einflussfaktoren auf die Kalibrierung von urbanhydrologischen Modellen sind die gewählte Modellstruktur, die Eingangsdaten, die Kalibrierdaten, die Auswahl von Kalibrierereignissen sowie die eigentliche Kalibriermethodik. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden die Einflüsse der Kalibrierdaten, der Auswahl von Ereignissen und der Kalibriermethodik auf die Ergebnisse der automatischen Kalibrierung mittels multikriterieller Optimierungsverfahren untersucht.

The main objective of this thesis is to prove the influence of small water reservoirs on the extreme runoff situations in a watershed of upper Otava River. The system of small water reservoirs represents an effective part of flood protection, which can be realized without greater changes of landscape. The research part of this thesis includes a summary of knowledge about rainfall-runoff process, small water reservoirs and hydrological modeling. The work is applied to model watershed of Roklanský creek, which is situated in a central part of Šumava Mountains. There are a few rain gauges and laser sensors situated in this watershed, whose are needed for the modeling process. The thesis contains a selection of appropriate data and methods for a creation of digital model of terrain. This digital model of terrain is used for creation of most of the parameters, whose are used for modeling of rainfall- runoff process. This modeling is done in hydrological modeling program HEC - HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System). HEC - HMS is one of the most used simulation programs. The main part of the thesis is a simulation of rainfall-runoff process, applied to two real rainfall-runoff episodes. Next important part of the thesis is a comparison of this simulation with and without...

L'aménagement des versants méditerranéens en terrasses et en fossés avait pour but d'augmenter la surface agricole et de permettre une meilleure gestion de l'eau. La dégradation des terrasses et des drains peut conduire à une augmentation des risques d'inondation, d'érosion et de maintien des cultures. Pour améliorer la connaissance de l'impact réel sur la réponse hydrologique des versants, cette thèse suit différentes approches de modélisation. D'abord la réponse hydrologique d'un bassin versant méditerranéen (0.91 km2) avec des terrasses et des fossés aménagés est simulée à l'aide d'un modèle distribué, événementiel, à base physique, adapté aux bassins versants agricoles. La performance est très satisfaisante pour certains événements simulés, même si le modèle ne tient pas compte des terrasses. Afin de modéliser l'impact des terrasses agricoles et de l'écoulement artificiel, nous avons conçu un nouveau modèle distribué et parcimonieux qui utilise une distribution linéaire du temps de réponse, combiné avec l'hydrogramme unitaire instantané géomorphologique. Les simulations sur des versants et bassins virtuels avec un réseau non-optimal de drainage (non-OCN) montrent que (i) pour de longues interfaces entre une parcelle et un cours d'eau la réponse hydrologique est plus rapide et le débit de pointe plus élevé; (ii) la vitesse du ruissellement de surface a un plus grand impact sur le débit de pointe que la vitesse d'écoulement dans les fossés; et (iii) la densité de drainage accrue combinée avec la création de terrasses résulte en un débit de pointe plus élevé en aval et moins élevé en amont. / Terrace cultivation and artificial drainage were implemented on Mediterranean hillslopes for multiple reasons: agricultural terraces increase arable land surface and artificial drainage allows for better water management. Degradation of terraces and channels inevitably leads to an increase in flood risk, erosion and, eventually, crop damage. Little is known about their effect on hillslope hydrologic response, and therefore this thesis presents an integrated method where we compare different modelling approaches. We first simulated the hydrologic response of a Mediterranean catchment (0.91 km2) with terrace cultivation and artificial drainage using a physically-based, fully distributed storm flow model for agricultural catchments. Simulation performance is impressive for some storms, even though the model does not account for terraces. In order to model the effects of terrace cultivation and artificial drainage on hillslope hydrologic response explicitly, we subsequently developed a new distributed model with only geometric and flow velocity parameters, using a linear response time distribution combined with the hillslope geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph. Simulations on virtual hillslopes and catchments with a non-optimal channel network suggest that (i) drainage is faster and attains higher peak flows for longer interface lengths between agricultural fields and drainage channels; (ii) overland flow velocity has greater influence on peak flow than channel flow velocity; and (iii) the combined effect of increased drainage density and introduction of terrace cultivation is enhanced peak flow at the outlet, and a reduction of peak flow from upstream terraces.

The diploma thesis focuses on the analysis of rainfall-runoff processes and erosion characteristics of selected catchment in different landscape management. This analysis was solved at the Lukavecký brook catchment, which is located in the Pelhřimov district in Vysočina region. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the rainfall-runoff process and then focuses more on individual processes. It also characterizes water erosion, its consequences, forms and erosion control. At the end of the theoretical part are described methods of calculation of water runoff and water erosion. The practical part describes the catchment of the Lukavecký brook, its characteristics of natural conditions and the threat of water erosion. Then there is a procedure for processing of bases and data in the program ArcGIS. Subsequently, it includes an assessment of the different measures and changes in the type of land to drain water from the catchment and erosion threat.

Neste estudo, foi realizada uma revisão dos problemas observados na modelagem chuva-vazão, que influenciam a incerteza das condições iniciais dos processos de previsão de vazão. Foi realizada, também, uma revisão do estado da arte de alguns dos modelos de previsão de vazão de curto prazo utilizados no Brasil e, por último, uma revisão das metodologias de atualização de dados empregadas em trabalhos passados. Mas o principal enfoque deste estudo foi à elaboração de uma metodologia de atualização de dados de entrada, baseada na correção do desvio entre a vazão de saída de um modelo hidrológico e a vazão observada, por meio da perturbação dos dados de entrada de precipitação. O estudo de caso está composto por três bacias: Bacia do rio Ijuí, Bacia do rio Tesouras e a Bacia do rio Canoas. Estas bacias foram escolhidas, pois apresentam características distintas, tanto físicas quanto climáticas e, além disso, pela existência de estudos prévios com o modelo hidrológico utilizado neste trabalho. O processo de avaliação do método foi realizado em três etapas: 1) utilizando séries sintéticas; 2) utilizando séries reais; 3) previsão de vazões com atualização de dados. As duas primeiras etapas utilizaram o modelo em modo atualização (“off-line”) e, a última, o modelo em modo de previsão (“on-line”). Para a aplicação do método é necessário estabelecer condições de parada, sendo então, propostos dois conjuntos de critérios de parada. Com isto, foi estabelecido um conjunto adequado de critérios para que estes fiquem fixos para possibilitar futuras aplicações em outros modelos ou em outros estudos de casos. A técnica de previsão de vazão de curto prazo utilizada foi com base na chuva prevista, sendo adotada a previsão de chuva conhecida ou perfeita. Foram geradas previsões diárias de até 7 dias, durante 20 dias contínuos, escolhendo-se dois eventos de diferentes características em cada uma das bacias do estudo de caso. Em modo previsão os resultados se mostraram promissores, o objetivo desejado inicialmente foi atingido pelos dois conjuntos de critérios de parada propostos. Conseguiu-se ter um ganho significativo até o quarto dia de previsão, como, também, melhoras nos períodos de subidas do hidrograma, porém nos períodos de estiagens o ganho foi quase nulo. Além disso, este trabalho mostrou a viabilidade da utilização do modelo IPH II para a geração de previsões de vazões baseadas em previsão de chuva. / In this study a review of the problems observed in rainfall-runoff modeling has been made, which influence the uncertainty of initial conditions of flow forecasting processes, as well as a review of the state of the art of some of the short-term flow forecasting models used in Brazil and the data update methodologies used in many past jobs. However the focus of this study has been the development of a data entry update methodology based on the correction of the deviation between the output flow of a hydrological model and the observed flow, by means of the disruption of rainfall input data. The case study is composed of the three river basins: River Ijuí, River Tesouras and Canoas. These basins have been chosen due to their different characteristics, both physical and climate, besides having been used in previous studies of the hydrological model used. The evaluation process of the method is done in three steps: 1) using synthetic series; 2) using real series; 3) stream flow forecasting with data update, the first two with the model in update mode ("off-line") and the last in predict mode ("on-line"). For the application of this method is necessary to establish stopping conditions for application, and for this have been proposed two sets of stop criteria. With this, intended to establish an appropriate set of criteria so that they become fixed to permit future applications in other models. The short-term flow forecasting technique used has been based on the forecast rain, adopted the rain forecast known or perfect. Predictions have been generated daily up to 7 days, for 20 consecutive days, choosing two events of different features in each case study basins. In predict mode the results have been promissory, the desired goal initially achieved by the two sets of proposed stopping criteria. It was possible to have a significant gain until the fourth day forecast also improvements in periods of hydrograph increases but not during periods of drought the gain was almost nil. This work has also showed the ability to generate predictions of rain forecast based flow as the IPH II model in real time.

Submitted by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2017-08-16T14:08:03Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Alice_Alonzo_Steinmetz_Estimativa_de_cheias_aplicando_a_técnica_de_hidrograma_unitário_com_diferentes_abordagens_de_discretização_espacial.pdf: 7122282 bytes, checksum: aef191b90c4f1b064f63c6126e7c0c2f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-16T14:08:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Alice_Alonzo_Steinmetz_Estimativa_de_cheias_aplicando_a_técnica_de_hidrograma_unitário_com_diferentes_abordagens_de_discretização_espacial.pdf: 7122282 bytes, checksum: aef191b90c4f1b064f63c6126e7c0c2f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-06 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / A indispensabilidade de preservação dos recursos hídricos estimula os pesquisadores a procurarem uma melhor compreensão quantitativa do ciclo hidrológico. A escassez de monitoramento hidrológico, confrontada com as grandes dimensões das bacias hidrográficas do Brasil, inviabilizam a mensuração da vazão em bacias de pequeno porte, bem como a análise de seu comportamento ao longo de um curso d’água. No tocante à gestão de cheias em bacias hidrográficas, as séries históricas de vazão são fundamentais para entender a resposta da bacia hidrográfica à ocorrência de eventos de chuvas intensas. A necessidade de dados hidrológicos repercute no desenvolvimento de modelos capazes de estimar hidrogramas de escoamento superficial direto (ESD), elemento de maior relevância para a análise de vazões resultantes de eventos extremos de precipitação. Dentre as técnicas de modelagem do ESD, destacam-se a teoria do Hidrograma Unitário (HU) e do Hidrograma Unitário Instantâneo (HUI). O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi avaliar a aplicabilidade e limitações de modelos de HU sintéticos tradicionalmente empregados na engenharia hidrológica (Triangular-HUT e Adimensional-HUA), além de modelos de HUI conceituais (Nash-HUIN e Clark-HUIC) e de suas versões geomorfológicas (Nash-HUIGN e Clark-HUIGC). Todos os procedimentos relacionados aos modelos de HU e HUI foram conduzidos considerando dois cenários de estudo: modelagem concentrada (cenário 1) e modelagem distribuída (cenário 2). A área de estudo foi a bacia hidrográfica do arroio Cadeia que é uma importante sub-bacia da bacia hidrográfica do arroio Pelotas (BHAP), situada no sul do estado do Rio Grande do Sul. As informações primordiais para a aplicação de tais modelos foram as variáveis topográficas extraídas do modelo digital de elevação e dados temporais de chuva e vazão monitorados na bacia, fazendo uso da rede de monitoramento hidrológico existente na BHAP. Dez eventos chuva-vazão foram analisados e o método do Número da Curva possibilitou estimar a distribuição temporal de precipitações efetivas para ambos os cenários. O processamento computacional constituiu-se da aplicação do software HEC-HMS e da linguagem de programação R para a análise dos modelos de HU e HUI supracitados. Para a calibração dos parâmetros dos modelos, empregou-se o algoritmo Nelder Mead. As principais constatações deste trabalho foram: i) os modelos HUIC e HUIN foram os que tiveram melhor acurácia para estimativa de vazões de pico e dos hidrogramas; ii) as formulações geomorfológicas não são universais e necessitam ser utilizadas com cautela; iii) os modelos ajustados apresentaram desempenho ligeiramente superior quando discretizado por sub-bacia; iv) os modelos que utilizam parâmetros geomorfológicos possuíram melhor desempenho quando aplicada a modelagem concentrada; v) o algoritmo Nelder Mead pode ter aplicação limitada; vi) outros algoritmos devem ser investigados em estudos futuros no intuito de buscar soluções mais adequadas; vii) no cenário 2 foi possível discretizar os parâmetros e relacionar com a realidade hidrológica da bacia em estudo. / The indispensability of preserving water resources encourages researchers to seek a better quantitative understanding of the hydrological cycle. The scarcity of hydrological monitoring in conjunction with the large dimensions of Brazilian watersheds makes it unfeasible to measure stream flow and to analyze its behavior along a watercourse in small-sized watersheds. With regard to flood management in watersheds, historical stream flow series are fundamental to understand the watershed response to the occurrence of heavy rainfall events. The need for hydrological data stimulates the development of models capable of estimating direct surface runoff (DSR) hydrographs, which is the most relevant component when analyzing stream flows originated from extreme rainfall events. Among the techniques available for DSR modeling, the theory of Unit Hydrograph (UH) and Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) should be highlighted. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the applicability and limitations of synthetic UH models traditionally used in hydrological engineering (Triangular-TUH and Dimensionless-DUH), conceptual IUH models (Nash-NIUH and Clark-CIUH) and their geomorphological versions (Nash-GNIUH and Clark-GCIUH). All the procedures involving UH and IUH models were carried out taking into account two study scenarios: lumped modeling (scenario 1) and distributed modeling (scenario 2). The study area was the Cadeia river watershed, which is an important subwatershed of the Pelotas river watershed (PRW), located in the south of Rio Grande do Sul State. The main information for the application of such models were topographical variables extracted from digital elevation model and temporal series related to rainfall and stream flow monitored in the watershed, making use of the existing hydrological monitoring network in the PRW. Ten rainfall-runoff events were evaluated and the Curve Number method was used to estimate the temporal distribution of effective rainfalls for both scenarios. The computational processing consisted of the application of both HEC-HMS software and R programming language for analysis of the aforementioned UH and IUH models. Nelder Mead algorithm was employed for calibration of the models’ parameters. The main findings of this study were: i) CIUH and NIUH were the models that had the best accuracy for estimation of peak stream flows and hydrographs; ii) the geomorphological formulations are not universal and need to be used carefully; iii) the adjusted models resulted in slightly superior performance when discretized by sub-basin; iv) the models dependent on geomorphological parameters had better performance when lumped modeling was applied; v) the Nelder Mead algorithm may have limited application; vi) other algorithms should be investigated in future studies in order to seek more adequate solutions; vii) in scenario 2, it was possible to discretize the parameters and relate them to the hydrological reality of the watershed under analysis.