<p> </p><p>Buying a house is for most people the biggest investment they will ever make. A lot of factors are taken in to consideration when looking for the perfect house; location, size, what state it is in and so forth. But since most people’s budgets are limited, the price is probably the most important aspect in the decision making process of buying a house. It is therefore highly interesting to note that since 1981, house prices in Sweden have increased with almost 400 percent.</p><p>This thesis examines the relationship between small house prices and macroeconomic factors in the Stockholm region during the period 1991 to 2007. By using macro economic theories complemented by data for all Stockholm’s municipalities in a OLS regression, the thesis will explain how the variables affects the small house prices in a boom, recession and over time.</p><p>The results and analysis reveals that as house prices rises, people tend to increase their spending on interest costs and vice versa if the prices falls. Furthermore, results show that in a boom, an existence of speculation is contributing to the rise while convergence is an important factor in a recession. The most important conclusion from this thesis is the fact that the influence of macroeconomic variables on house prices differs significantly, depending on if the economy is in a recession or a boom. Finally, the influence on the economy that the house- and real estate market possesses cannot be underestimated with its important effect on the credit market, inflation and asset market.</p><p> </p> / <p> </p><p>Husköp är för de flesta människor deras livs största investering och det är därför många faktorer som först måste vägas in varav den viktigaste förmodligen är priset. Huspriserna i Sverige har sedan 1981 nästan fyrdubblats, en utveckling som är mycket kraftigare än inflationen samma tid.</p><p>Den här kandidatuppsatsen avser att undersöka Stockholmregionens småhuspriser åren 1981-2007 och dess relation till makroekonomiska faktorer. Genom att använda en OLS regression med insamlad data för Stockholms alla kommuner och makroekonomiska teorier, visar vi hur utvalda makroekonomiska variabler påverkar småhuspriserna generellt, i hög- samt lågkonjunktur.</p><p>Resultat och analys visar att om småhuspriserna går upp är tenderar Stockholms befolkning att lägga en större del av deras inkomst på räntekostnader och tvärtom när priserna går ner. En psykologisk aspekt har en viktig del i dessa upp och nedgångar, i en uppgång startar en spekulationsperiod då människor vill vara en del ägandet i den uppåtgående husmarknad medans i en nergång skapas en sorts konvergens och en rad faktorer påverkar varandra i en spiralliknande nedåt trend. Denna trend kan förklaras i DiPasquales och Wheatons assets market model där det positiva förhållandet mellan marknader som hyresmarknaden, kreditmarknaden, byggmarknaden och tillgångsmarknaden står i fokus. Den viktigaste slutsatsen i uppsatsen är att makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar småhuspriserna helt olika beroende på om ekonomin är i en hög eller lågkonjunktur. Slutligen bör nämnas hur viktigt hus- och fastighetsmarknaden är för en ekonomi genom dess påverkan på kreditmarknaden och inflationen.</p><p> </p>

Darbo tikslas – išanalizuoti gyvenamojo nekilnojamojo turto rinką ir įvertinti pagrindinius veiksnius veikiančius statybų kainas ir ištirti kokią įtaką daro atskiro regiono vystymasis. Tyrimo objektas - nekilnojamojo turto rinka Vilniuje, Kaune, Klaipėdoje ir Šiauliuose, tiksliau daugiabučių namų rinką. Darbas susideda iš trijų dalių: teorinės, analitinės ir empirinės. Pirmiausia pateikiama teorinė informacija apie nekilnojamojo turto rinką – nekilnojamojo turto rinkos charakteristikos ir samprata. Antrame skyriuje analizuojami demografiniai, socialiniai ir ekonominiai veiksniai Lietuvoje, ir kokią įtaką daro nekilnojamojo turto rinkai. Paskutinėje dalyje analizuojami tie patys rodikliai Vilniuje, Kaune, Klaipėdoje ir Šiauliuose, ir jų įtaka gyvenamojo nekilnojamojo turto rinkai (ar butų kainos nėra per aukštos, ar situacija rinkoje nejuda link kainų burbulo). / The objective of this paper is to analyze residential real estate market and to evaluate the main factors influencing construction prices of residential real estate, and also to investigate are prices depend on individual region economic growth tendencies. Research subject is the real estate market of Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda and Siauliai cities, especially the tenement house market. The paper consists mainly of three parts: theoretical, analytical and empirical. Firstly, is provided theoretical information about real estate market - analysis and conception of real estate market and its characteristics. Then, in the second chapter, there is the analysis of demographical, social and economical factors in Lithuania, how they vary and influence the real estate market. Next is the study of main economic and social environment factors in Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda and Siauliai cities, and how they influence residential real estate market in these cities (are prices not too high or they are next to residential real estate price bubble). The research contains 52 pages. There are 13 tables and 11 diagrams.

Šio magistro darbo tema yra Šiaulių miesto nekilnojamojo turto rinkos analizė. Nekilnojamojo turto rinka yra ypač svarbus bet kurios šalies vidinės ir išorinės rinkos elementas, nuo kurio, kainų kitimo, priklauso ekonomikos pokyčiai. Šiame darbe nagrinėju nekilnojamojo turto vystimosi tendencijas Šiaulių mieste. Taip pat darbe nagrinėjama gyvenamojo būsto rinkos problematika: staigūs pokyčiai, šuolinis kainų ir paklausos didėjimas, pasiūlos mažėjimas, įvairūs veiksniai, įtakojantys gyvenamųjų patalpų rinką. Darbo tikslas – ištirti, išanalizuoti nekilnojamojo turto vystimosi tendencijas Šiaulių mieste, įtvirtinti analitinės dalies apžvalgą praktiniu ir anketiniu tyrimu, nustatyti nekilnojamo turto rinkos problemas bei pateikti siūlymus. Šiems tikslams įgyvendinti, iškelti tokie uždaviniai: išnagrinėti nekilnojamojo turto išorės veiksnių įtaką; aptarti ir išanalizuoti nekilnojamo turto sampratą ir vystimosi tendencijas Šiaulių mieste; pateikti išvadas ir pasiūlymus. Darbe nagrinėjama ne tik gyvenamojo būsto, žemės, komercinių patalpų rinka, nuomos ir pardavimo kainos, tačiau pateikiama ir Šiaulių miesto gyventojų anketinė apklausa, kurios metu išsiaiškinta žmonių nuomonė, dėl nekilnojamojo turto įsigijimo – pardavimo, bei sprendimus įtakojančius veiksnius. / Topic of this Master‘s Paper is analysis of Šiauliai City real estate market. Real estate market is an especially important internal and external market element of any country, the price changes of which predetermine economic changes. Aim of the paper is to research influence of external factors on the real estate markets, to analyse real estate development trends in Šiauliai City, to confirm analytical part review with practical and questioning survey, to disclose problems of the real estate market and to give suggestions. In order to attain the given aims, the following tasks have been set: to research influence of external factors on the real estate markets; to discuss and to analyse real estate concept and development trends in Šiauliai City; to give conclusions and suggestions. In the paper both residential, commercial premises, land market as well as rental and sale prices are analysed, questioning survey of Šiauliai City residents, disclosing the most popular real estate in Šiauliai City is given.

[pt] Esta tese analisa alguns aspectos do acordo de Basiléia III, proposto pelo Bank for International Settlements (BIS) e suas aplicações em três situações diferentes no mercado brasileiro. Em primeiro lugar, analisamos se duas das principais recomendações, requerimentos de capital e Stressed VaR, atenuariam os efeitos da crise pré-eleitoral brasileira em 2002, caso já estivessem vigentes neste passado recente. Inovamos ao propor o VIX como alternativa (Proxy) de volatilidade em situações de stress quando não há histórico disponível; ao modelar séries financeiras com SWGARCH e inovações alpha-estáveis (BRODA et al.,2013) e ao abordarmos o risco de mercado, simultaneamente, tanto via Indicadores Antecedentes - Early Warning, do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) - como via Requerimentos de Capital (BIS). Segundo, questionamos uma possível dicotomia no campo da regulação bancária, quando a regulação de risco de liquidez coexiste com o instituto do emprestador de última instância. Rebatemos esta suposta dicotomia e inovamos, tanto ao verificar que opções de compra sem vencimento podem proporcionar um complemento ou alternativa, teoricamente viável para os requisitos de capital; como ao evidenciar que o índice de liquidez agregada dos bancos brasileiros segue um passeio aleatório, o que implica um constante esforço em manter este índice em um nível seguro. Terceiro, ao avaliar um tipo de crise bem conhecida, inovamos ao propor que o risco de mercado imobiliário pode ser mitigado com opções reais, modeladas com mudança de regime de volatilidade dos preços imobiliários, simuladas a partir dos retornos mensais dos preços de venda constantes no índice FIPE-ZAP. / [en] This thesis analyzes some aspects of the Basel III Accord, from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and their applications on three different situations in the Brazilian market. First, we analyze whether two main recommendations, minimum capital requirements and the use of Stressed VaR, would mitigate the effects of the Brazilian pre-election crisis in 2002 if they were already implemented. We innovate in three situations: using the VIX as a volatility alternative (proxy) for stress scenarios when no historical data is available; modeling financial time series with SWGARCH and alpha-stable innovations (according to BRODA et al., 2013) and analyzing Market Risk with two approaches simultaneously: the Early Warning, from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Capital Requirements (BIS). Second, we discuss a supposed dichotomy in banking regulation: the simultaneity of liquidity risk regulation versus the lender of last resort institute. We rebate this dichotomy and innovate both by demonstrating that perpetual call options may offer a theoretically feasible alternative or complement to capital requirements; and by identifying that the Brazilian liquidity index is a random walk process, meaning a constant effort to keep this index at a safer level. Third, focusing a well known kind of crisis, we innovate by evaluating if the real estate market risk could be mitigated with the development of abandon real options with volatility regime-switching risk, simulated from the monthly returns of the real estate selling prices listed in the FIPE-ZAP index.

The aim of this diploma thesis is to compare market prices with respect to the locations in European cities. Locations are divided to European capitals and European cities with smaller (limited) population. Selected real estates are predefined apartment and predefined family house which are the same for all locations. Subject of the literature review is the definition of basic concepts, introduction of the real estate market situation both from the Czech and European perspective and outline of the basic information on European Valuation Standards including their history. Before starting the thesis I established the methodical procedure consisting of selection of the location, i.e. analysis of the markets of individual European metropolises and cities with smaller (limited) population. For the research I chose 4 capitals and 4 cit ies with a population up to 100.000 in Germany, Great Britain, France and the Czech republic. I focused especially on comparison of market prices of the apartments between individual European capitals because an apartment is object of the business transactions more often than a family house. I compared the market prices of family houses only in the cities with smaller (limited) population. In conclusion I tried to clearly summarize the reasons for the price differences between the cities with emphasis on the economic force in individual countries.

Firstly, this thesis contains an overview of basic concepts that we can meet on the real estate market. In the theoretical part of the thesis, the issues of auctions and their requirements are dealt with. Secondly, the practical part describes the specific real estate auction made in the area of Liberec Heights-Stary Harcov and there is further prepared by statistics dealing with the difference of the estimated price of the apartments, which were sold at auction, with prices of involuntary, which these flats were actually auctioned for. The work also includes its own estimate of one of these flats with an explanation of why the assessed prices differ from the prices at which the apartments are auctioned

The theoretic part of the diploma thesis contains an explanation of the basic terminology of the real estate market and estimation field. The practical part of the thesis deals with the real estate measurement, of a family house and a housing unit in particular. It deals with the issue of measurement of each property itself, including the process of measuring it. The output of the thesis is the overall estimation of the two properties by a comparative method.

O mercado imobiliário brasileiro está passando pelo maior boom que já ocorreu no mundo que, por sua vez, envolve uma complexa interação entre os agentes de oferta e de demanda. Os principais fatores que têm impactado a demanda por imóveis no período recente são o aumento da renda média e a expansão do mercado de crédito. Pelo lado da oferta, é a escassez de terrenos edificáveis, dificultada, ainda, pela legislação de proteção ao meio ambiente, justificando o alto déficit habitacional. O resultado dos três fatores que, juntos, pressionam a demanda para cima e a oferta para baixo, acarreta no aumento dos preços dos imóveis residenciais em todo o país. No caso específico do Rio de Janeiro, levam-se em conta as externalidades positivas geradas pelo aumento dos investimentos em infraestrutura para a realização da Copa do Mundo de 2014 e dos Jogos Olímpicos de 2016, incluindo a redução da violência em determinadas áreas com a implantação das Unidades de Polícia Pacificadora (UPPs). / The Brazilian real estate market is going through the biggest boom ever known in the world that, in turn, involves a complex interaction between the agents of supply and demand. The main factors that have impacted the demand for housing in recent years is the increase in average income and expansion of the credit market. On the supply side, is the lack of "buildable land", hampered also by the law of environment protection, justifying the high housing deficit. The result of three factors that, together, pushing the demand up and supply down, results in increased housing prices across the country. In the specific case of Rio de Janeiro, it takes into account the positive externalities generated by increased investment in infrastructure for holding the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics, including the reduction of violence in certain areas by deploying Unidades de Polícia Pacificadora (Pacifying Police Units).

[pt] Investimentos no mercado imobiliário envolvem grande aporte de capital e baixa liquidez, não sendo incorporados de forma instantânea, apresentando lento payback, além de diversas incertezas econômicas relativas à demanda, preço/m2 e velocidade de vendas, que aumentam o risco percebido dos investidores. Foi analisada a viabilidade econômica de um lançamento imobiliário na cidade do Rio de Janeiro identificando as opções reais relevantes ao empreendimento como a aquisição de informações, opções de adiamento e abandono do projeto, permitindo ao incorporador a escolha de decisões que maximizem o valor de seu empreendimento. Estima-se o valor máximo pago ao proprietário do terreno em função do direito de exclusividade. Ao considerar estratégias de opções inseridas na metodologia de fluxo de caixa descontado, diminui-se exposição de risco (Value-At-Risk) do empreendimento em 50 por cento e aumenta o valor do empreendimento em R$ 3MM. É importante, estabelecer uma cultura empresarial que empregue a teoria de opções de forma a proporcionar um efetivo gerenciamento de risco do empreendimento. / [en] Real Estate investments are characterized by high capital outflows, low liquidity and short payback together with economic uncertainties related to demand, price/m2 and sales speed that increase the risk perceived by investors. It is often the case when the property developer and the land owner sign an agreement where the former obtain the exclusive property rights to construct on the land for a certain period of time against an initial payment. This contract introduces in the real estate investment project the option to wait or abandon development depending on the information gathered from the market during the expiration period. It was analyzed a real estate investment in the city of Rio de Janeiro where the previous Real Options are identified and valued, allowing a better management of the decision process and an effective risk management for the company. It was estimated the ceiling price for the exclusive property rights. The adoption of the Real Option Strategy shows a reduction of 50 percent in the Valueat- Risk with respect to the traditional valuation (that does not considers the real options embedded) and the value of the project increases R$ 3MM.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2099418 bytes, checksum: a7be8c2ff460de911574b604c44ca931 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-11 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The capitalist world economy has experienced about a dozen serious financial crises in the past forty years, ranging between 1971, when the U.S. government, unilaterally, changes the dollar-gold relationship (which anchored the world payments system) causing the end of the management system of international trade and finance, established in 1944 in Bretton Woods, and the year 2011, when experiencing the unfolding trade, fiscal and economic of international financial crisis began in 2007, also, in USA. The internationalization of the financial system changed substantially the nature and determinants of world economic dynamics. The current financial crisis is, mainly, the crisis of financial globalization, perceived as a tendency to create a global financial market, through the financial deregulation, that allows for increased capital flows between countries. The inability to continue developing the trajectories of the financial paradigm" until late 1960 - real estate financing via savings banks - led to depletion of the financial model, as well as the adoption and generalization of radical innovation that became, in the late 1980s, the new financial paradigm: mortgage securitization. Changes caused by the introduction and proliferation of securitization in the mortgage market have created new financial players that were more suited to the new environment as well as the new logic of accumulation. The recent financial crisis cannot be regarded as a crisis point in a market segment of smaller ones - although growing - which originated in subprime mortgage defaults. This crisis was fomented for decades and corresponds to the natural unfolding of the evolutionary process of the capitalist system development. / A economia capitalista mundial experimentou cerca de uma dúzia de graves crises financeiras nos últimos quarenta anos, compreendidos entre 1971, quando o governo dos EUA, unilateralmente, altera a relação dólar-ouro provocando o fim do sistema de gerenciamento do comércio e das finanças internacionais, estabelecido em 1944 em Bretton Woods, e o corrente ano de 2011, quando se experimenta os desdobramentos comerciais, fiscais e econômicos da crise financeira internacional iniciada em 2007, também, nos EUA. A internacionalização do sistema financeiro modificou de forma substancial os determinantes e a natureza da dinâmica econômica mundial. A crise financeira atual é, principalmente, a crise da globalização financeira, apreendida como uma tendência à criação de um mercado financeiro global, através da desregulamentação financeira, que permita a intensificação no fluxo de capitais entre países. A impossibilidade de continuar desenvolvendo as trajetórias do paradigma financeiro vigente até finais dos anos 1960 financiamento imobiliário via bancos de poupança levou ao esgotamento do modelo financeiro, bem como à adoção e generalização de uma inovação radical que se transformou, no final dos anos 1980, no novo paradigma financeiro: a securitização de hipotecas. As alterações provocadas pela introdução e proliferação da securitização no mercado de financiamento imobiliário fizeram surgir novos atores financeiros que se mostraram mais adequados ao novo ambiente, bem como à nova lógica de acumulação. Desta forma, a recente crise financeira não pode ser considerada como uma crise pontual de um segmento de mercado de menor expressão embora crescente que teve origem na inadimplência das hipotecas subprime. Essa crise foi gestada ao longo de décadas e corresponde ao desdobramento natural do processo evolucionário de desenvolvimento do sistema capitalista.