Le sujet de cette thèse de doctorat est l'étude de divers aspects liés à l'approche markovienne dans le cadre des études de fiabilité.<p><p>La première partie de cette thèse concerne Ia modélisation d'installations industrielles et la construction de la matrice de transition. Le but poursuivi est le développement d'un code markovien permettant une description réaliste et aisée du système. Le système est décrit en termes de composants multiétats :pompes, vannes .<p>La définition d'une série de règles types permet l'introduction de dépendances entre composants. Grâce à la modélisation standardisée du système, un algorithme permettant la construction automatique de la matrice de transition est développé. L'introduction d'opérations de maintenance ou d'information est également présentée.<p><p>La seconde partie s'intéresse aux techniques de réduction de la taille de la matrice, afin de rendre possible le traitement de grosses installations. En effet, le nombre d'états croit exponentiellement avec le nombre de composants, ce qui limite habituellement les installations analysables à une dizaine de composants. Les techniques classiques de réduction sont passées en revue :<p>accessibilité des états,<p>séparation des groupes de composants indépendants,<p>symétrie et agrégation exacte des états (cfr Papazoglou). Il faut adapter la notion de symétrie des composants en tenant compte des dépendances pouvant exister entre composants.<p><p>Une méthode d'agrégation approchée pour le calcul de la fiabilité et de la disponibilité de groupes de composants à deux états est développée.<p><p>La troisième partie de la thèse contient une approche originale pour l'utilisation de la méthode markovienne. Il s'agit du développement d'une technique de réduction basée sur le graphe d'influence des composants. Un graphe d'influence des composants est construit à partir des dépendances existant entre composants. Sur base de ce graphe, un système markovien non homogène est construit, décrivant de manière approchée le comportement du système exact. Les résultats obtenus sur divers exemples sont très bons.<p><p>Une quatrième partie de cette thèse s'intéresse aux problèmes numériques liés à l'intégration du système différentiel du problème markovien. Ces problèmes résultent principalement du caractère stiff du système. Différentes méthodes classiques sont implantées pour l'intégration du système différentiel. Elles sont testées sur un exemple type de problème de fiabilité.<p><p>Pour finir, on trouve la présentation du code CAMERA dans lequel ont été implantées les différentes techniques présentées ci-dessus.<p> / Doctorat en sciences appliquées / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

L’objectif de la thèse est d’évaluer la fiabilité des réseaux de capteurs (WSN) en milieu naturel. L’évaluation prend en compte les composants physiques des nœuds de capteurs, les cellules photovoltaïques éventuelles (PV), les batteries rechargeables ou non, les protocoles de communications et d’échange de données ainsi que les éléments nécessaires pour une détection efficace, en particulier les feux de forêt. L’étude traite d’abord du fonctionnement du réseau de capteur dans la nature en prenant en compte sa consommation d’énergie et les défaillances physiques et fonctionnelles pour évaluer sa fiabilité. Puis, la fiabilité est comparée entre un réseau sans PV (WSN) et avec PV (PV-WSN) dans des conditions d’échange de données difficiles. Enfin, l’évaluation de la fiabilité des PV-WSN est effectuée dans le cadre de la détection et de la propagation des feux de forêts avec les mêmes conditions d’échange de données. Les principales hypothèses considérées sont : des distributions de capteurs aléatoires dans des réseaux avec un seul nœud « sink », des nœuds identiques, l’affaiblissement du signal radio dû aux obstacles naturels, une propagation de feu uniforme et elliptique, une végétation homogène, une perte possible de paquets de données ainsi que l’utilisation du protocole de routage « Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) ». Un simulateur a été développé pour effectuer les différentes études. Les résultats obtenus montrent l’importance des défaillances physiques pour l’évaluation de la fiabilité et pour la prolongation de la durée de vie des WSN et PV-WSN / The objective of my thesis was to evaluate the reliability of wireless sensor networks (WSN) in natural settings. My evaluation takes into account the physical components of sensor nodes, photovoltaic (PV) cells, rechargeable and non-rechargeable batteries, communication and data transmission protocols, and elements necessary for effective detection, especially for the case of forest fires. The study first deals with the functioning of a WSN in nature by taking into account its energy consumption, and physical and functional failures to assess its reliability. Reliability is then compared between a PV-free (WSN) and PV- (PV-WSN) network under complex data exchange conditions. Finally, the evaluation of the reliability of the PV-WSN is carried out in the context of the detection and propagation of forest fires under the same conditions of data exchange. The main assumptions considered are: the WSN is structured randomly with one sink per cluster and identical sensors, environmental and orientation losses affect PV-cell recharge, the radio signal may be weakened by natural obstacles, fire propagation is uniform and elliptical, vegetation is homogeneous, and there is communication loss using the Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) protocol. A simulator was developed to carry out these assessments. The results obtained show the importance of physical failures in assessing reliability and extending WSN and PV-WSN lifetime

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Structural optimization of vehicle components for blast mitigation seeks to counteract the damaging effects of an impulsive threat on occupants and critical components. The strong and urgent need for improved protection from blast events has made blast mitigating component design an active research subject. Standard up-armoring of ground vehicles can significantly increase the mass of the vehicle. Without concurrent modifications to the power train, suspension, braking and steering components, the up-armored vehicles suffer from degraded stability and mobility. For these reasons, there is a critical need for effective methods to generate lightweight components for blast mitigation. The overall objective of this research is to make advances in structural design methods for the optimization of lightweight blast-mitigating systems. This thesis investigates the automated design process of isotropic plates to mitigate the effects of blast loading by addressing the design of blast-protective structures from a design optimization perspective. The general design problem is stated as finding the optimum shape of a protective shell of minimum mass satisfying deformation and envelops constraints. This research was conducted in terms of three primary research projects. The first project was to investigate the design of lightweight structures under deterministic loading conditions and subject to the same objective function and constraints, in order to compare feasible design methodologies through the expansion of the problem dimension in order to reach the limits of performance. The second research project involved the investigation of recently developed uncertainty quantification methods, the univariate dimensional reduction method and the performance moment integration method, to structures under stochastic loading conditions. The third research project involved application of these uncertainty quantification methods to problems of design optimization under uncertainty, in order to develop a methodology for the generation of lightweight reliable structures. This research has resulted in the construction of a computational framework, incorporating uncertainty quantification methods and various optimization techniques, which can be used for the generation of lightweight structures for blast mitigation under uncertainty. Applied to practical structural design problems, the results demonstrate that the methodologies provide a practical tool to aid the design engineer in generating design concepts for blast-mitigating structures. These methods can be used to advance research into the generation of reliable structures under uncertain loading conditions inherent to blast events.

M. Tech. (Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Faculty of Engineering), Vaal University of Technology. / The current business environments in many companies are characterized by markets facing tough competitions, from which customer requirements and expectations are becoming increasingly high in terms of quality, cost and delivery dates, etc. These emerging expectations are even getting stronger due to rapid development of new information and communication technologies that provide direct connections between companies and their clients. As a result, companies should have powerful control mechanisms at their disposal. To achieve this, companies rely on a number of functions including production scheduling. This function has always been present within companies, but today, it is facing increasing complexities because of the large number of jobs that must be executed simultaneously. Amongst many factors, it is time driven. This study demonstrates that several disciplines can be married into one model (i.e. a unified model) to solve scheduling problems after disruptions, and clears the way for future multi-disciplinary research efforts. Scheduling problem is modeled as follows: Ito’s stochastic differential rule is used to analyse the time evolution of random or stochastic processes. Multifactor productivity is used to unify various disruption factors. Theory of line balancing is also employed to determine the required number of resources to minimize bottleneck. Reliability: disruptions are considered to be equivalent to system failure. The failure rate of the system is translated to the reliability of the system mathematically. The probabilities of failure are used as indicators of disruptions, and the theory of reliability is then applied. Bernoulli’s principle is also employed to relate pressure to production flow and aid in managing bottleneck situations. Results indicate that the amount of resources needed after disruption depends on the nature of disruption, and that the scheduler should plan to increase number of facilities following a trend that is only predicted by the nature of disruptions. It is also shown that disruption of one type may not greatly affect productivity of a certain company layout, whilst similar disruptions can have devastating effect on another type. It is further concluded that impacts of disruption are dependent on the type of company layouts.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Lithium-ion battery is one kind of rechargeable battery, and also renewable, sustainable and portable. With the merits of high density, slow loss of charge when spare and no memory effect, lithium-ion battery is widely used in portable electronics and hybrid vehicles. Apart from its advantages, safety is a major concern for Lithium-ion batteries due to devastating incidents with laptop and cell phone batteries. Overcharge and over-discharge are two of the most common electrical abuses a lithium-ion battery suffers. In this thesis, a fuzzy-rule-based system is proposed to detect the over-charge and over-discharge failure in early time. The preliminary results for the failure signatures of overcharged and over-discharged lithium-ion are listed based on the experimental results under both room temperature and high temperature. A fuzzy-rule-based model utilizing these failure signatures is developed and validated. For over-charge case, the abnormal increase of the surface temperature and decrease of the voltage are captured. While for over discharge case, unusual temperature increase during overcharge phases and abnormal current decrease during overcharge phases are obtained. The inference engine for fuzzy-rule-based system is designed based on these failure signatures. An early warning signal will be given by this algorithm before the failure occurs. This failure detection and early warning system is verified to be effective through experimental validation. In the validation test, the proposed methods are successfully implemented in a real-time system for failure detection and early warning. The result of validation is compatible with the design expectation. Finally an accurate failure detection and early warning system is built and tested successfully.

The telecommunication market is growing at a very fast pace with the evolution of new technologies to support high speed throughput and the availability of a wide range of services and applications in the mobile networks. This has led to a need for communication service providers (CSPs) to shift their focus from network elements monitoring towards services monitoring and subscribers’ satisfaction by introducing the service quality management (SQM) and the customer experience management (CEM) that require fast responses to reduce the time to find and solve network problems, to ensure efficiency and proactive maintenance, to improve the quality of service (QoS) and the quality of experience (QoE) of the subscribers. While both the SQM and the CEM demand multiple information from different interfaces, managing multiple data sources adds an extra layer of complexity with the collection of data. While several studies and researches have been conducted for data analytics in mobile networks, most of them did not consider analytics based on the four dimensions involved in the mobile networks environment which are the subscriber, the handset, the service and the network element with multiple interface correlation. The main objective of this research was to develop mobile network analytics models applied to the 3G packet-switched domain by analysing data from the radio network with the Iub interface and the core network with the Gn interface to provide a fast root cause analysis (RCA) approach considering the four dimensions involved in the mobile networks. This was achieved by using the latest computer engineering advancements which are Big Data platforms and data mining techniques through machine learning algorithms. / Electrical and Mining Engineering / M. Tech. (Electrical Engineering)

Aujourd'hui, les systèmes industriels deviennent de plus en plus complexes. Cette complexité est due d’une part à la structure du système qui ne se résume pas à des structures classiques en fiabilité, d’autre part à la prise en compte de composants présentant des phénomènes de dégradation graduelle que des systèmes de monitoring permettent de surveiller. Ceci mène à l'objectif de cette thèse portant sur le développement des stratégies de maintenance prévisionnelle pour des systèmes multi-composants complexes. Les politiques envisagées proposent notamment des stratégies de regroupement de composants permettant de tirer des dépendances économiques identifiées. Des facteurs d'importance permettant de prendre en compte la structure du système et la dépendance économique sont développés et combinés avec les évaluations de fiabilité prévisionnelle des composants pour l’élaboration de règles de décision de regroupement. De plus, un couplage des règles de décision de maintenance et de gestion des stocks est également étudié. L’ensemble des études menées montrent l’intérêt de la prise en compte de la fiabilité prévisionnelle des composants, des dépendances économiques et de la structure complexe du système dans l'aide à la décision de maintenance et de gestion des stocks. L’avantage des stratégies développées est vérifié en les comparant à d’autres existantes dans la littérature / Today, industrial systems become more and more complex. The complexity is due partly to the structure of the system that cannot be reduced to classic structure reliability (series structures, parallel structures, series-parallel structures, etc), secondly the consideration of components with gradual degradation phenomena that can be monitored. This leads to the main purpose of this thesis on the development of predictive maintenance strategies for complex multi-component systems. The proposed policies provide maintenance grouping strategies to take advantage of the economic dependence between components. The predictive reliability of components and importance measures allowing taking into account the structure of the system and economic dependence are developed to construct the grouping decision rules. Moreover, a joint decision rule for maintenance and spare parts provisioning is also studied.All the conducted studies show the interest in the consideration of the predictive reliability of components, economic dependencies as well as complex structure of the system in maintenance decisions and spare parts provisioning. The advantage of the developed strategies is confirmed by comparing with the other existing strategies in the literature

O envelhecimento de uma instalação industrial provoca o aumento do número de falhas. A probabilidade de falhar é um indicador do momento em que deve ser feita uma parada para manutenção. É desenvolvido um método estatístico, baseado na teoria não-markoviana, para a determinação da variação da probabilidade de falhar em função do tempo de operação, que resulta num sistema de equações diferenciais parciais de natureza hiperbólica. São apresentadas as soluções por passo-fracionário e Lax-Wendroff com termo fonte. Devido à natureza suave da solução, os dois métodos chegam ao mesmo resultado com erro menor que 10&#8722;3. No caso estudado, conclui-se que o colapso do sistema depende principalmente do estado inicial da cadeia de Markov, sendo que os demais estados apresentam pouca influência na probabilidade de falha geral do sistema. / During the useful life of an industrial plant, the failure occurrence follows an exponential distribution. However, the aging process in an industrial plant generates an increase of the failure number. The failure probability is a rating for the maintenance stopping process. In this paper, an statistical method for the assessment of the failure probability as a function of the operational time, based on the non-Markovian theory, is presented. Two maintenance conditions are addressed: In the first one, the old parts are utilized, after the repair this condition being called as good as old; in the second one the old parts are substituted by brand new ones this condition being called as good as new. A non-Markovian system with variable source term is modeled by using hyperbolic partial differential equations. The system of equations is solved using the Lax-Wendroff and fractional-step numerical schemes. The two methods achieve to approximately the same results, due to the smooth behavior of the solution. The main conclusion is that the system collapse depends essentially on the initial state of the Markov chain.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo aplicar a análise de confiabilidade estrutural a um edifício alto submetido à ação do vento considerando o conforto humano na avaliação dos modos de falha. Para isso, foram consideradas como variáveis aleatórias: a velocidade máxima do vento no topo do edifício cuja distribuição de probabilidade é a distribuição de Gumbel para máximos e o módulo de elasticidade do concreto com modelo de probabilidade normal. Realizou-se a análise para dois modos de falha: o deslocamento excessivo no topo do edifício, com base na NBR 15575-2/2013, e a aceleração máxima para verificação do conforto humano de acordo com a NBR 6123/2013. Posteriormente, foi realizada uma análise conjunta dos modos de falha aplicados em série. O método utilizado foi o FORM – First Order Reliability Method com algoritmo HLRF, implementado em ambiente Matlab, para o edifício teórico CAARC. Verificou-se grandes discrepâncias entre a probabilidade de falha para os dois modos considerados. Para a aceleração máxima, encontrou-se valores práticos de ponto de projeto e probabilidade de falha. No entanto, o deslocamento horizontal de 3 centímetros resultou em uma probabilidade de falha extremamente alta para valores de velocidade de vento baixos, concluindo-se que, para o edifício alto do problema, o limite normativo tende a ser facilmente extrapolado. À vista disso, o parâmetro de deslocamento horizontal baseado na altura total do edifício também foi estudado. Tal análise resultou em uma probabilidade de falha maior que a da aceleração, no entanto, apresentando valores de ponto de projeto consistentes. / The present work aims to apply structural reliability analysis to a tall building subjected to wind load considering human comfort in the evaluation of failure modes. For this purpose, the following random variables were considered: the maximum wind speed at the top of the building whose probability distribution is the Gumbel distribution for maximum and the modulus of elasticity of concrete with normal distribution. The analysis was conducted for two failure modes: excessive displacement on the top of the building, which is based on NBR 15575/2013, and the maximum acceleration for verification of the human comfort according to NBR 6123/2013. A joint analysis of failure modes applied in series was performed. The method used was the FORM - First Order Reliability Method with HLRF algorithm, implemented in Matlab environment, for the theoretical building CAARC. Large discrepancies between the failure probabilities of the two modes considered were found. For maximum acceleration, the design point value and the failure probability found were practical results. However, the horizontal displacement of 3 centimeters resulted in an extremely high probability of failure for low wind speed values, concluding that, for the tall building of the problem, the code limit tends to be easily extrapolated. Hence, the horizontal displacement parameter based on the total height of the building was also studied. Such analysis resulted in a failure probability greater than the acceleration one, however, presenting consistent design point values.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo aplicar a análise de confiabilidade estrutural a um edifício alto submetido à ação do vento considerando o conforto humano na avaliação dos modos de falha. Para isso, foram consideradas como variáveis aleatórias: a velocidade máxima do vento no topo do edifício cuja distribuição de probabilidade é a distribuição de Gumbel para máximos e o módulo de elasticidade do concreto com modelo de probabilidade normal. Realizou-se a análise para dois modos de falha: o deslocamento excessivo no topo do edifício, com base na NBR 15575-2/2013, e a aceleração máxima para verificação do conforto humano de acordo com a NBR 6123/2013. Posteriormente, foi realizada uma análise conjunta dos modos de falha aplicados em série. O método utilizado foi o FORM – First Order Reliability Method com algoritmo HLRF, implementado em ambiente Matlab, para o edifício teórico CAARC. Verificou-se grandes discrepâncias entre a probabilidade de falha para os dois modos considerados. Para a aceleração máxima, encontrou-se valores práticos de ponto de projeto e probabilidade de falha. No entanto, o deslocamento horizontal de 3 centímetros resultou em uma probabilidade de falha extremamente alta para valores de velocidade de vento baixos, concluindo-se que, para o edifício alto do problema, o limite normativo tende a ser facilmente extrapolado. À vista disso, o parâmetro de deslocamento horizontal baseado na altura total do edifício também foi estudado. Tal análise resultou em uma probabilidade de falha maior que a da aceleração, no entanto, apresentando valores de ponto de projeto consistentes. / The present work aims to apply structural reliability analysis to a tall building subjected to wind load considering human comfort in the evaluation of failure modes. For this purpose, the following random variables were considered: the maximum wind speed at the top of the building whose probability distribution is the Gumbel distribution for maximum and the modulus of elasticity of concrete with normal distribution. The analysis was conducted for two failure modes: excessive displacement on the top of the building, which is based on NBR 15575/2013, and the maximum acceleration for verification of the human comfort according to NBR 6123/2013. A joint analysis of failure modes applied in series was performed. The method used was the FORM - First Order Reliability Method with HLRF algorithm, implemented in Matlab environment, for the theoretical building CAARC. Large discrepancies between the failure probabilities of the two modes considered were found. For maximum acceleration, the design point value and the failure probability found were practical results. However, the horizontal displacement of 3 centimeters resulted in an extremely high probability of failure for low wind speed values, concluding that, for the tall building of the problem, the code limit tends to be easily extrapolated. Hence, the horizontal displacement parameter based on the total height of the building was also studied. Such analysis resulted in a failure probability greater than the acceleration one, however, presenting consistent design point values.