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The ongoing financial crisis has had major adverse impact on the credit market. As the financial crisis progresses, the skyrocketing unemployment rate puts more and more customers in such a position that they cannot pay back their credit debts. The deteriorating economic environment and growing pressures for revenue generation have led creditors to re-assess their existing portfolios. The credit re-assessment is to accurately estimate customers' behavior and distill information for credit decisions that differentiate bad customers from good customers. Lending institutions often need a specific rule for defining an optimal cut-off value to maximize revenue and minimize risk. In this dissertation research, I consider a problem in the broad area of credit risk management: the selection of critical thresholds, which comprises of the "optimal cut-off point" and an interval containing cut-off points near the optimal cut-off point (a "near-optimal interval"). These critical thresholds can be used in practice to adjust credit lines, to close accounts involuntarily, to re-price, etc. Better credit re-assessment practices are essential for banks to prevent loan loss in the future and restore the flow of credit to entrepreneurs and individuals. The Profit Function is introduced to estimate the optimal cut-off and the near-optimal interval, which are used to manage the credit risk in the financial industry. The credit scores of the good population and bad population are assumed from two distributions, with the same or different dispersion parameters. In a homoscedastic Normal-Normal model, a closed-form solution of optimal cut-off and some properties of optimal cut-off are provided for three possible shapes of the Profit Functions. The same methodology can be generalized to other distributions in the exponential family, including the heteroscedastic Normal-Normal Profit Function and the Gamma-Gamma Profit Function. It is shown that a Profit Function is a comprehensive tool in the selection of critical thresholds, and its solution can be found using easily implemented computing algorithms. The estimation of near-optimal interval is developed in three possible shapes of the bi-distributional Profit Function. The optimal cut-off has a closed-form formula, and the estimation results of near-optimal intervals can be simplified to this closed-form formula when the tolerance level is zero. Two nonparametric methods are introduced to estimate critical thresholds if the latent risk score is not from some known distribution. One method uses the Kernel density estimation method to derive a tabulated table, which is used to estimate the values of critical thresholds. A ROC Graphical method is also developed to estimate critical thresholds. In the theoretical portion of the dissertation, we use Taylor Series and the Delta method to develop the asymptotic distribution of the non-constrained optimal cut-off. We also use the Kernel density estimator to derive the asymptotic variance of the Profit function. / Statistics

Thesis / Master of Science (MS)

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is used to measure the classification accuracy of tests that yield ordinal or continuous scores. Ordinal scores are common in medical imaging studies and, more recently, in black-box studies on forensic identification accuracy (Phillips et al., 2018). To assess the accuracy of radiologists in medical imaging studies or the accuracy of forensic examiners in biometric studies, one needs to estimate the ROC curves from the ordinal scores and account for the covariates related to the radiologists or forensic examiners. In this thesis, we propose a homogeneity test to compare the performance of raters. We derive the asymptotic properties of estimated ROC curves and their corresponding Area Under the Curve (AUC) within an ordinal regression framework. Moreover, we investigate differences in ROC curves (and AUCs) among examiners in detail. We construct confidence intervals for the difference in AUCs and confidence bands for the difference in ROC curves for performance comparison purposes. First, we conduct simulations on data where scores are assumed to be normally distributed, and the features include both categorical and continuous covariates. Then, we apply our procedure to facial recognition data to compare forensic examiners. The second part of this thesis addresses the correlation of decision scores among raters. In medical imaging studies and facial recognition, multiple raters assess the same subject pairs, leading to potential score correlations. Because of these correlated scores, standard methods for generalized linear models cannot be directly applied to estimate accuracy. In this thesis, we employ the generalized estimating equation to estimate covariate-specific and covariate-adjusted AUC values when correlations are present in ordinal scores. We conduct homogeneity tests on both covariate-specific and covariate-adjusted AUCs, investigating their statistical properties. To assess the finite sample properties of the test, we conduct simulation studies. Furthermore, we apply this test to real facial recognition data.

Objectif : Déterminer la fiabilité et la précision d’un prototype d’appareil non invasif de mesure de glucose dans le tissu interstitiel, le PGS (Photonic Glucose Sensor), en utilisant des clamps glycémiques multi-étagés. Méthodes : Le PGS a été évalué chez 13 sujets avec diabète de type 1. Deux PGS étaient testés par sujet, un sur chacun des triceps, pour évaluer la sensibilité, la spécificité, la reproductibilité et la précision comparativement à la technique de référence (le Beckman®). Chaque sujet était soumis à un clamp de glucose multi-étagé de 8 heures aux concentrations de 3, 5, 8 et 12 mmol/L, de 2 heures chacun. Résultats : La corrélation entre le PGS et le Beckman® était de 0,70. Pour la détection des hypoglycémies, la sensibilité était de 63,4%, la spécificité de 91,6%, la valeur prédictive positive (VPP) 71,8% et la valeur prédictive négative (VPN) 88,2%. Pour la détection de l’hyperglycémie, la sensibilité était de 64,7% et la spécificité de 92%, la VPP 70,8% et la VPN : 89,7%. La courbe ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) démontrait une précision de 0,86 pour l’hypoglycémie et de 0,87 pour l’hyperglycémie. La reproductibilité selon la « Clark Error Grid » était de 88% (A+B). Conclusion : La performance du PGS était comparable, sinon meilleure que les autres appareils sur le marché(Freestyle® Navigator, Medtronic Guardian® RT, Dexcom® STS-7) avec l’avantage qu’il n’y a pas d’aiguille. Il s’agit donc d’un appareil avec beaucoup de potentiel comme outil pour faciliter le monitoring au cours du traitement intensif du diabète. Mot clés : Diabète, diabète de type 1, PGS (Photonic Glucose Sensor), mesure continue de glucose, courbe ROC, « Clark Error Grid». / Objective: To determine the reliability and precision of a prototype of a non-invasive device for continuous measurement of interstitial glucose, the PGS (Photonic Glucose Sensor), using multi-level glycaemic clamp. Methods: The PGS was evaluated in 13 subjects with type 1 diabetes. Two PGS were tested with each subject, one on each triceps, to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, reproducibility and accuracy compared to the reference technique, the glucose analyzer Beckman®. Each subject was submitted to a multi-level 8 hour glucose clamp at 3, 5, 8 and 12 mmol / L, 2 hours each. Results: The correlation between the PGS and the Beckman® was 0.70. For the detection of hypoglycaemia, the sensitivity was 63.4%, the specificity 91.6%, the positive predictive value (PPV) 71.8% and the negative predictive value (NPV) 88.2%. For the detection of hyperglycaemia, the sensitivity was 64.7% the specificity 92%, the PPV 70.8% and the NPV: 89.7%. The ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) curve showed an accuracy of 0.86 and 0.87 for hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia respectively. Reproducibility according to the Clark Error Grid was 88% in the A and B zone. Conclusion: The performance of the PGS was comparable or better than other continuous glucose monitoring devices on the market (Freestyle® Navigator, Medtronic Guardian® RT, Dexcom® STS-7) with the advantage that it has no needle. It is therefore an interesting device and hopefully, which could facilitate the monitoring in the intensive treatment of diabetes. Key words: Diabetes, type 1 diabetes, PGS (Photonic Glucose Sensor), ROC curve, Clark Error Grid, continuous glucose monitoring, CGMS.

Huit instruments d’évaluation du risque ont été appliqués sur 580 délinquants sexuels. Il s’agit du VRAG, du SORAG, du RRASOR, de la Statique-99, de la Statique-2002, du RM-2000, du MnSORT-R et du SVR-20. De plus, les sujets ont été cotés sur la PCL-R, qui vise la mesure de la psychopathie, mais qui a fait ses preuves en matière de prédiction de la récidive (Gendreau, Little, et Goggin, 1996). En vue de mesurer l’efficacité de ces instruments et de la PCL-R, une période de suivi de 25 ans a été observée. Aussi, une division de l’échantillon a été faite par rapport à l’âge au moment de la libération, afin de mesurer les différences entre les délinquants âgés de 34 ans et moins et ceux de 35 ans et plus. Le présent travail vise à répondre à trois objectifs de recherche, soit 1) Décrire l’évolution du risque en fonction de l’âge, 2) Étudier le lien entre l’âge, le type de délinquant et la récidive et 3) Comparer l’efficacité de neuf instruments structurés à prédire quatre types de récidive en fonction de l’âge. Les résultats de l’étude suggèrent que l’âge influence le niveau de risque représenté par les délinquants. Par ailleurs, les analyses des différents types de récidive indiquent que le type de victime privilégié par les délinquants influence également ce niveau de risque. Les implications théoriques et pratiques seront discutées. / Eight evaluation techniques demonstrating high risk sexual offenders has been taken upon 580 individual sexual offenders. They are among the VRAG, the SORAG, the RRASOR, the Static-99, the Static-2002, the RM-2000, the MnSORT-R ans the SVR-20. Also, the subjects have been quoted according to the PCL-R, which focuses on their mental health, however supporting the quotes by prediction and relaps (Gendreau, Little, et Goggin, 1996). With the ongoing measuring of the suitability of these instruments as well as the PCL-R, it will take a period of 25 years for the observance. As well, a group of subjects have been studied from the age they were let out of prison, to come up with conclusions differentiating the offenders aging 34 and less with the offenders aging 35 and older. The present work on this subject matter hopes to focus on three research objectives: 1) Describe the evolution of risk according to the age, 2) To study the common point between age, they type of offender, and their relaps, and 3) To compare the suitability of 9 instruments the predict 4 types of relaps according to their age. The study results suggest that age affects the level of risk posed by offenders. Furthermore, analyses of different types of recidivism indicate that the preferred type of victim offender also influences the level of risk. The theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

L’Inventaire des risques et des besoins liés aux facteurs criminogènes (IRBC) est un instrument utilisé depuis le début des années 1990 pour évaluer les risques de récidive des jeunes contrevenants québécois. Il est le produit d’une collaboration du Québec avec l’Ontario, survenue dans le cadre de travaux de recherche effectués sur les instruments d’évaluation du risque de récidive des jeunes contrevenants. L’IRBC est donc le seul instrument précisément conçu pour évaluer les risques de récidive des jeunes contrevenants québécois et il n’a jamais fait l’objet d’une démarche visant à tester sa validité prédictive. Le but de ce projet de mémoire est de tester la validité prédictive de l’IRBC. Des analyses de courbes ROC et des analyses de survie ont été utilisées pour tester les propriétés métriques de l’instrument. Ces analyses suggèrent que, dans l’ensemble, l’IRBC arrive à prédire la récidive de façon acceptable. Quatre des huit grands domaines associés à la récidive, communément appelé BIG FOUR, seraient des prédicteurs modérés de la récidive lorsque testés avec les données issues de l’IRBC. Il s’agit des domaines Antécédents, Pairs, Personnalité-Comportements, et Attitudes-Tendances. Des aspects en lien avec la fidélité de l’instrument témoignent toutefois d’irrégularités dans le processus d’évaluation, ce qui interroge le niveau de rigueur maintenu au jour le jour par les professionnels. Des aspects en lien avec la fidélité de l’IRBC demeureraient à investiguer. / The Inventaire des risques et des besoins liés aux facteurs criminogènes (IRBC) is a test used since the early 1990s to assess young offenders’s risk of recidivism in Quebec. It is the product of a collaboration between Quebec and Ontario which occurred in the context of research work on instruments used to evaluate young offenders’s risk of recidivism. The IRBC is the only instrument specifically designed to assess the risk of recidivism of young offenders in Quebec and has never been subject of a predictive validity study. The aim of this master project is to test the predictive validity of the IRBC. ROC curves analysis and survival analysis were used to test the metric properties of the instrument. The results suggest that overall the IRBC is capable of predicting recidivism acceptably. Four of the eight domains associated with criminal recidivism, commonly called BIG FOUR, would be moderate predictors of recidivism when tested with data from the IRBC. These are Antécédents, Pairs, Personnalité-Comportements, and Attitudes-Tendances. However, aspects related to the fidelity of the instrument show irregularities in the assessment process, which questioned the rigor maintained daily by professionals. Aspects related to the fidelity of the IRBC would remain to be investigated.

L’obésité est un problème de santé publique reconnu. Dans la dernière décennie l’obésité abdominale (OA) a été considérée comme une maladie métabolique qui contribue davantage au risque de diabète et de maladies cardiovasculaires que l’obésité générale définie par l’indice de masse corporelle. Toutefois, dans les populations d’origine africaine, la relation entre l’OA et les autres biomarqueurs de risque cardiométabolique (RCM) demeure obscure à cause du manque d’études chez ces populations et de l’absence de valeurs-seuils spécifiques pour juger d’une OA. Cette étude visait à comparer la prévalence des biomarqueurs de RCM (OA, hypertension artérielle, hyperglycémie, dyslipidémie, résistance à l'insuline et inflammation pré-clinique) chez les Béninois de Cotonou et les Haïtiens de Port-au-Prince (PAP), à étudier l’association de l’OA avec les autres biomarqueurs de RCM, à documenter le rôle du niveau socio-économique (NSE) et du mode de vie dans cette association et à ’identifier les indicateurs anthropométriques de l’OA -tour de taille (TT) et le ratio TT/hauteur (TT/H)- et les seuils qui prédisent le mieux le RCM à Cotonou et à PAP. Il s’est agi d’une analyse de données transversales chez 452 adultes (52 % hommes) apparemment en bonne santé, âgés de 25 à 60 ans, avec 200 sujets vivant à Cotonou (Bénin) et 252 sujets à PAP (Haïti). Les biomarqueurs de RCM considérés étaient : le syndrome métabolique (SMet) d’après les critères harmonisés de 2009 et ses composantes individuelles - une OA à partir d’un TT ≥ 94cm chez les hommes et ≥ 80cm chez les femmes, une hypertension, une dyslipidémie et une hyperglycémie; la résistance à l’insuline définie chez l’ensemble des sujets de l’étude à partir du 75e centile de l’Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA-IR); un ratio d’athérogénicité élevé (Cholestérol sérique total/HDL-Cholestérol); et l’inflammation pré-clinique mesurée à partir d’un niveau de protéine C-réactive ultrasensible (PCRus) entre 3 et 10 mg/l. Le ratio TT/H était aussi considéré pour définir l’OA à partir d’un seuil de 0,5. Les données sur les habitudes alimentaires, la consommation d’alcool, le tabagisme, les caractéristiques sociodémographiques et les conditions socio-économiques incluant le niveau d’éducation et un proxy du revenu (basé sur l’analyse par composante principale des biens et des possessions) ont été recueillies au moyen d’un questionnaire. Sur la base de données de fréquence de consommation d’aliments occidentaux, urbains et traditionnels, des schémas alimentaires des sujets de chaque ville ont été identifiés par analyse typologique. La validité et les valeurs-seuils de TT et du ratio TT/H prédictives du RCM ont été définies à partir des courbes ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics). Le SMet était présent chez 21,5 % et 16,1 % des participants, respectivement à Cotonou et à PAP. La prévalence d’OA était élevée à Cotonou (52,5 %) qu’à PAP (36%), avec une prévalence plus élevée chez les femmes que chez les hommes. Le profil lipidique sérique était plus athérogène à PAP avec 89,3 % d’HDL-c bas à PAP contre 79,7 % à Cotonou et un ratio CT/HDL-c élevé de 73,4 % à PAP contre 42 % à Cotonou. Les valeurs-seuils spécifiques de TT et du TT/H étaient respectivement 94 cm et 0,59 chez les femmes et 80 cm et 0,50 chez les hommes. Les analyses multivariées de l’OA avec les biomarqueurs de RCM les plus fortement prévalents dans ces deux populations montraient que l’OA était associée à un risque accru de résistance à l’insuline, d’athérogénicité et de tension artérielle élevée et ceci, indépendamment des facteurs socio-économiques et du mode de vie. Deux schémas alimentaires ont émergé, transitionnel et traditionnel, dans chaque ville, mais ceux-ci ne se révélaient pas associés aux biomarqueurs de RCM bien qu’ils soient en lien avec les variables socio-économiques. La présente étude confirme la présence de plusieurs biomarqueurs de RCM chez des sujets apparemment sains. En outre, l’OA est un élément clé du RCM dans ces deux populations. Les seuils actuels de TT devraient être reconsidérés éventuellement à la lumière d’études de plus grande envergure, afin de mieux définir l’OA chez les Noirs africains ou d’origine africaine, ce qui permettra une surveillance épidémiologique plus adéquate des biomarqueurs de RCM. / Obesity is recognized as a major public health problem. In the last decade abdominal obesity (AO) was considered as a metabolic disorder which further contributes to the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease than the general obesity defined by body mass index. However, in African origin population groups, the relationship between AO and other cardiometabolic risk (CMR) biomarkers remained unclear because of the lack of studies in these population groups and the lack of specific cut-off values to define AO. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of CMR biomarkers (OA, hypertension, hyperglycemia, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and subclinical inflammation) in Beninese from Cotonou and Haitians from Port-au-Prince (PAP), to assess the association between AO and other CMR biomarkers in relation to Cotonou and PAP participants’ socioeconomic and lifestyle parameters and to define anthropometric indicators of AO -waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR)- and specific thresholds that best predict the CMR in both Cotonou and PAP. The cross-sectional study included 452 apparently healthy adults (52 % men), aged 25-60 years, 200 subjects from Cotonou (Benin) and 252 subjects from PAP (Haiti). The CMR biomarkers were: the metabolic syndrome (MetS) according to the harmonized criteria of 2009, its individual components - AO defined by a WC ≥ 94cm in men and ≥ 80 cm in women, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia - Insulin resistance was set at the 75th centile of Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA-IR) for the whole sample of subjects. High atherogenicity index (total serum cholesterol/HDL-Cholesterol), subclinical inflammation according to high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) concentration between 3 to 10 mg/L was also assessed. WHtR from a cut-off point of 0.5 was also considered to assess AO. Data on dietary habits, alcohol consumption, tobacco, sociodemographic and socioeconomic status, including education level and a proxy of income (based on principal component analysis of property and possessions) were documented by a questionnaire. Dietary patterns were generated from Western, urban and traditional food frequency in each city by cluster analysis. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the performance of specific WC and WHtR cut-offs to predict the CMR. MetS was present in 21.5 % and 16.1 % of participants in Cotonou and PAP respectively. AO was higher in Cotonou (52.5 %) than in PAP (36 %) with higher prevalence in women than in men. The serum lipid profile was more atherogenic in PAP with 89.3 % of low HDL-C in PAP comparing to 79.7 % in Cotonou and high seum TC / HDL-C ratio of 73.4 % in PAP versus 42 % in Cotonou. The specific WC and WHtR cut-off values were respectively 94 cm and 0.59 in women and 80cm and 0.50 in men. Multivariate analysis of AO with the most prevalent CMR biomarkers in these two population groups showed that AO was associated with increased risk of insulin resistance, high atherogenic index and high blood pressure, irrespective of socioeconomic and lifestyle factors. Two dietary patterns were defined: transitional and traditional in each city, but these were not associated with the CMR biomarkers although they were related to socioeconomic variables. This study confirms the presence of several CMR biomarkers in apparently healthy subjects. Additionally, AO was a key element of the CMR in both population groups. However, current WC thresholds should be reconsidered in light of larger studies to better define AO among Black African groups, which will improve the epidemiological surveillance of the CMR biomarkers.

L’intérêt porté à l’évaluation du risque de récidive chez les délinquants ayant une déficience intellectuelle (DI) a notablement augmenté depuis les 10 dernières années. D’ailleurs, certains croient que les instruments utilisés pour mesurer le risque chez les auteurs d’infractions sexuelles neurotypiques peuvent s’appliquer aux auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI tandis que d’autres appuient l’idée d’utiliser et de développer des mesures actuarielles propres à ces individus. Trois objectifs ont été posés pour tenter d’éclaircir ces deux visions, soit 1) Comparer les taux de récidive entre les deux groupes d’auteurs d’infractions sexuelles (ayant une DI et neurotypiques), en plus de déterminer lequel récidive plus rapidement sur une courte période de temps, 2) Analyser la validité prédictive de huit instruments actuariels (et de la PCL-R) auprès d’un échantillon d’auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI et 3) Analyser la composition des instruments par domaines (Knight et Thornton, 2007). L’échantillon est composé de 550 auteurs d’infractions sexuelles dont 54 ont une DI. Les résultats suggèrent que les deux groupes d’auteurs d’infractions sexuelles (neurotypiques et ayant une DI) présentent des taux de récidive similaires. Un nombre restreint d’instruments semblent par contre efficaces chez les auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI. De ce fait, le SVR-20 s’est révélé avoir une validité prédictive pour la récidive sexuelle, le RMC, le RMV et le MnSOST-R pour la récidive violente et le VRAG pour la récidive non violente. Il est toutefois justifié de se questionner sur la manière d’évaluer le risque chez cette clientèle particulière. L’analyse de la composition des instruments semble importante puisque certains domaines pourraient prédire différemment la récidive chez les auteurs d’infractions sexuelles ayant une DI. Une grande partie des facteurs pouvant être utiles dans la prédiction de la récidive ne semblent toujours pas avoir été identifiés, repoussant ainsi la création d’instruments propres aux délinquants ayant une DI. / Interest in the risk assessment for offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID) has particularly grown during the last 10 years. Two opinions are shared on this subject: some believe that the instruments used to measure risk in sexual offenders can apply to sexual offenders with ID while others support the idea of using and developing actuarial measures for these people. Three objectives were set in an attempt to clarify these two visions: 1) Compare recidivism rates between the two groups of sexual offenders (with and without ID), 2) Analyze the predictive validity of the eight most commonly used actuarial instruments (and the PCL-R) based on a sample of sex offenders with ID and 3) Analyze the composition of the instruments according to their domains (Knight and Thornton, 2007). The sample consisted of 550 sex offenders of which 54 have an ID. The results suggest that the two groups of sexual offenders have similar rates of recidivism. A limited number of instruments also seems to be effective for sex offenders with ID. The SVR-20 was found to have predictive validity regarding sexual recidivism, the RMC, the RMV and the MnSOST-R for violent recidivism and the VRAG for non-violent recidivism. However, it is justified to question how the risk of recidivism is assessed for this particular clientele. The composition analysis of the actuarial instruments seems important among sex offenders with ID since some domains could predict differently the risk of recidivism. Finally, many of the risk factors that may be more useful in predicting recidivism has not been identified yet, thus delaying the creation of instruments tailored to offenders with ID.

INTRODUÇÃO: O Hipotireoidismo congênito (HC) é uma das endocrinopatias mais frequentes em pediatria e pode causar retardo mental e do crescimento, se não for tratado precocemente. A determinação do nível do hormônio estimulador da tireoide em sangue total após o nascimento (TSHneo) constitui uma estratégia efetiva para o rastreamento de HC, embora não exista consenso em relação aos níveis considerados seguros para essa detecção. Muitos serviços utilizam os valores de corte do TSH neonatal de 10,0 e 15,0 ?UI/mL, por ensaios imunofluorimétricos. OBJETIVO: Analisar a capacidade de detecção dos casos de hipotireoidismo congênito por diferentes níveis de corte do TSH neonatal e os efeitos destes sobre o sistema de triagem neonatal para essa doença, em nascidos vivos avaliados pelo Programa de Triagem Neonatal (PTN) da rede pública do Estado de Mato Grosso (MT), de 01 de janeiro de 2010 a 31 de dezembro de 2012. MÉTODOS: Estudo de coorte, de corte transversal, com coleta retrospectiva de dados obtidos a partir do banco de dados do Serviço de Referência em Triagem Neonatal do Estado de Mato Grosso, de nascidos vivos no período 01/01/2010 a 31/12/2012 e avaliados pelo PTN-MT. Estes foram divididos em dois grupos: I. Controle: Crianças com exame de triagem neonatal normal; II. Estudo: Crianças com HC. Análise estatística incluiu o uso do teste qui-quadrado ou exato de Fischer para análise das características dos recém-nascidos entre os grupos e o teste t de Student ou não paramétrico de Mann-Whitney para análise dos níveis de TSH em sangue total de ambos os grupos e, avaliação das concentrações de TSH e T4 livre no soro, em crianças com HC. Construiu-se uma curva ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic), para a avaliação dos pontos de corte do TSHneo. O nível de significância foi p<0,05. RESULTADOS: Entre as 111.705 crianças triadas pelo Programa, 50 tiveram o diagnóstico de HC, sob o ponto de corte do TSHneo de 5,0 ?UI/mL. A prevalência da doença foi de 1:2.234 nascidos vivos. A cobertura do Programa estadual foi de 73,9%. Para o Grupo II, os níveis do TSHneo foram superiores a 20,0 ?UI/mL em 61,4% das crianças e, os níveis de TSH no soro excederam este valor em 83,7%. A curva ROC identificou o ponto de corte do TSHneo de 5,03 ?UI/mL, como o correspondente à sensibilidade de 100% e a maior especificidade associada (93,7%). A área observada sob a curva foi de 0,9898 (p<0,0001). CONCLUSÕES: Observou-se uma cobertura inadequada do PTN-MT. O ponto de corte do TSH neonatal de 5,0 ?UI/mL, adotado pelo PTN-MT, foi confirmado pela curva ROC como o mais seguro para detectar HC e determinou a elevada prevalência da doença no Estado de Mato Grosso / INTRODUCTION: Congenital hypothyroidism (CH) is a very common pediatric endocrine disorder and can cause mental and growth retardation without early treatment. Measuring the total blood thyroid-stimulating hormone level after birth (TSHneo) is an effective screening strategy for CH, although there is not yet a consensus on the appropriate diagnostic levels. Many services use the neonatal TSH cut-off points of 10.0 and 15.0 uIU/mL per imunofluorimetric assay. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to analyze the ability of various TSHneo cutoff values to detect CH and their effects on the Newborn Screening Program (NSP) of the State of Mato Grosso (MT) from January 1, 2010, to december 31, 2012. METHODS: Cohort study, cross-sectional, based on retrospective data collection obtained from the database of the Reference Service for Neonatal Screening of the State of Mato Grosso, for all live births from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2012, reviewed by NSP-MT. The infants were divided into two groups: I-Control: infants with normal newborn screening tests and II-Study: infants with CH. Statistical analysis included the chi-square or Fisher\'s exact test to compare the characteristics of the newborns from both groups and Student\'s t-test or the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test to analyse the total blood TSH level from both groups of infants and evaluate the serum TSH and free thyroxine (T4) concentrations in infants with CH. A Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to assess the TSHneo cutoff values. The significance level was p < 0.05. RESULTS: Using a TSHneo cutoff value 5.0 uIU/mL, 50 out of 111,705 screened infants were diagnosed with CH. The prevalence of CH was 1:2,234 live births. The state program coverage was 73.9%. For Group II, the TSHneo levels were higher than 20.0 uIU/mL in 61.4% of infants, and the serum TSH levels exceeded that level in 83.7%. The ROC curve showed that a TSHneo cutoff value of 5.03 uIU/mL had 100% sensitivity and the greatest associated specificity (93.7%). The area under the curve was 0.9898 (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: An inadequate coverage of the NSP-MT was observed. The ROC curve confirmed that the TSHneo cutoff value of 5.0 ?IU/mL adopted by the NSP-MT was the safest for detecting CH and determined the high prevalence of disease that was found in the State of Mato Grosso