有鑑於產險業特別準備金制度爭議已久，應於何時提存或收回似乎已成了保險業界與保險司之間的角力賽。本研究採用傳統精算中破產理論(Ruin Theory)的概念，並觀察火災保險、貨物運輸保險、漁船保險與任意汽車保險等四個不同損失分配的險別進行蒙地卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo Simulation)，得出各個險種最適的特別準備金提存率。本文使人更容易了解因各險種具備的特性不同，在相同的破產機率水準下，會因為危險程度不同以及自留保費收入相對於自留賠款間的關係，間接影響到最適特別準備金的提存額度。 　　本研究的實證模擬分析結果發現：整體而言，目前產險業應提存的特別準備金總額大致上已充足，但是，若以各險別應提列的特別準備金額度而言，任意汽車保險有滯留過多的情形，而漁船保險則明顯地不充足，因此，目前應重新估算各險別應提存的特別準備金，暫時以各險可「相互浥注」的概念，使各險種調整至適當的比率，一併轉入「淨值」項下的「特別公積」科目，而「負債」項所剩餘的「特別準備金」餘額應逐年攤銷；建議今後特別準備金必須以「差額補足法」的會計處理方式，並按各個險種「專款專用」為原則。 / Much debate has devoted about the issue of the contingency reserve in property insurance companies in Taiwan over the past decades and how to calculate the appropriate amount of the reserve has become a perplexing problem between insurance companies and regulators. This paper conducts the Ruin Theory and comes up with the optimal model for calculating the contingency reserve. By using Monte Carlo Simulation method, we collect four different lines data in Fire, Marine cargo. Fishing vessel and Motor insurance to calculate the optimal contingency reserve ratio in each line. In addition, we examine the effect of different contingency reserve systems on insurance company's financial statements. Our results imply that owing to the different loss distribution in each line, the different level of risk and the ratio of retention premium to retention claim will indirectly affect the optimal contingency reserve under the identical ruin probability level. 　　Our findings indicate that the overall contingency reserve of property insurance company is sufficient at present, but the amount is not sufficient for each line. For example, the reserve in motor insurance is over-reserved while that in fishing vessel insurance is not adequate. We, therefore; suggest that the contingency reserve should be re-estimated by each line. At present, we suggest to use the "inter-line-compensation" principle to make up the insufficient reserve for different line. However, the contingency reserve should be credited as "special fund" of Surplus when the reserve in each line is at the adequate level and the over-reserved amount of "special claim's reserve" should be amortized year by year. Moreover, We suggest to applying the "marginal contribution" method for calculating contingency reserve and establish an individual account for the contingency reserve for each line.

As ruin theory evolves in recent years, there has been a variety of quantities pertaining to an insurer's bankruptcy at the centre of focus in the literature. Despite the fact that these quantities are distinct from each other, it was brought to our attention that many solution methods apply to nearly all ruin-related quantities. Such a peculiar similarity among their solution methods inspired us to search for a general form that reconciles those seemingly different ruin-related quantities. The stochastic approach proposed in the thesis addresses such issues and contributes to the current literature in three major directions. (1) It provides a new function that unifies many existing ruin-related quantities and that produces more new quantities of potential use in both practice and academia. (2) It applies generally to a vast majority of risk processes and permits the consideration of combined effects of investment strategies, policy modifications, etc, which were either impossible or difficult tasks using traditional approaches. (3) It gives a shortcut to the derivation of intermediate solution equations. In addition to the efficiency, the new approach also leads to a standardized procedure to cope with various situations. The thesis covers a wide range of ruin-related and financial topics while developing the unifying stochastic approach. Not only does it attempt to provide insights into the unification of quantities in ruin theory, the thesis also seeks to extend its applications in other related areas.

As ruin theory evolves in recent years, there has been a variety of quantities pertaining to an insurer's bankruptcy at the centre of focus in the literature. Despite the fact that these quantities are distinct from each other, it was brought to our attention that many solution methods apply to nearly all ruin-related quantities. Such a peculiar similarity among their solution methods inspired us to search for a general form that reconciles those seemingly different ruin-related quantities. The stochastic approach proposed in the thesis addresses such issues and contributes to the current literature in three major directions. (1) It provides a new function that unifies many existing ruin-related quantities and that produces more new quantities of potential use in both practice and academia. (2) It applies generally to a vast majority of risk processes and permits the consideration of combined effects of investment strategies, policy modifications, etc, which were either impossible or difficult tasks using traditional approaches. (3) It gives a shortcut to the derivation of intermediate solution equations. In addition to the efficiency, the new approach also leads to a standardized procedure to cope with various situations. The thesis covers a wide range of ruin-related and financial topics while developing the unifying stochastic approach. Not only does it attempt to provide insights into the unification of quantities in ruin theory, the thesis also seeks to extend its applications in other related areas.

Cette thèse est principalement constituée de trois articles traitant des processus markoviens additifs, des processus de Lévy et d'applications en finance et en assurance. Le premier chapitre est une introduction aux processus markoviens additifs (PMA), et une présentation du problème de ruine et de notions fondamentales des mathématiques financières. Le deuxième chapitre est essentiellement l'article "Lévy Systems and the Time Value of Ruin for Markov Additive Processes" écrit en collaboration avec Manuel Morales et publié dans la revue European Actuarial Journal. Cet article étudie le problème de ruine pour un processus de risque markovien additif. Une identification de systèmes de Lévy est obtenue et utilisée pour donner une expression de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée lorsque le PMA est un processus de Lévy avec changement de régimes. Celle-ci est une généralisation des résultats existant dans la littérature pour les processus de risque de Lévy et les processus de risque markoviens additifs avec sauts "phase-type". Le troisième chapitre contient l'article "On a Generalization of the Expected Discounted Penalty Function to Include Deficits at and Beyond Ruin" qui est soumis pour publication. Cet article présente une extension de l'espérance de la fonction de pénalité actualisée pour un processus subordinateur de risque perturbé par un mouvement brownien. Cette extension contient une série de fonctions escomptée éspérée des minima successives dus aux sauts du processus de risque après la ruine. Celle-ci a des applications importantes en gestion de risque et est utilisée pour déterminer la valeur espérée du capital d'injection actualisé. Finallement, le quatrième chapitre contient l'article "The Minimal entropy martingale measure (MEMM) for a Markov-modulated exponential Lévy model" écrit en collaboration avec Romuald Hervé Momeya et publié dans la revue Asia-Pacific Financial Market. Cet article présente de nouveaux résultats en lien avec le problème de l'incomplétude dans un marché financier où le processus de prix de l'actif risqué est décrit par un modèle exponentiel markovien additif. Ces résultats consistent à charactériser la mesure martingale satisfaisant le critère de l'entropie. Cette mesure est utilisée pour calculer le prix d'une option, ainsi que des portefeuilles de couverture dans un modèle exponentiel de Lévy avec changement de régimes. / This thesis consists mainly of three papers concerned with Markov additive processes, Lévy processes and applications on finance and insurance. The first chapter is an introduction to Markov additive processes (MAP) and a presentation of the ruin problem and basic topics of Mathematical Finance. The second chapter contains the paper "Lévy Systems and the Time Value of Ruin for Markov Additive Processes" written with Manuel Morales and that is published in the European Actuarial Journal. This paper studies the ruin problem for a Markov additive risk process. An expression of the expected discounted penalty function is obtained via identification of the Lévy systems. The third chapter contains the paper "On a Generalization of the Expected Discounted Penalty Function to Include Deficits at and Beyond Ruin" that is submitted for publication. This paper presents an extension of the expected discounted penalty function in a setting involving aggregate claims modelled by a subordinator, and Brownian perturbation. This extension involves a sequence of expected discounted functions of successive minima reached by a jump of the risk process after ruin. It has important applications in risk management and in particular, it is used to compute the expected discounted value of capital injection. Finally, the fourth chapter contains the paper "The Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure (MEMM) for a Markov-Modulated Exponential" written with Romuald Hérvé Momeya and that is published in the journal Asia Pacific Financial Market. It presents new results related to the incompleteness problem in a financial market, where the risky asset is driven by Markov additive exponential model. These results characterize the martingale measure satisfying the entropy criterion. This measure is used to compute the price of the option and the portfolio of hedging in an exponential Markov-modulated Lévy model.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T15:22:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JackelyaAS.pdf: 313251 bytes, checksum: 729c2692ae341877eba59b8ce2bf93dd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-03-11 / In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin / Neste trabalho estudamos um novo modelo de risco para uma empresa que ? sens?vel a classica??o de risco de cr?dito, proposto por Yang(2003): Obtemos equa??es recursivas para a probabilidade de ru?na em tempo nito, distribui??o do tempo de ru?na, sistemas de equa??es integrais do tipo Volterra para severidade e distribui??o conjunta do capital antes e depois da ru?na

Cette thèse a pour objet d'étude les méthodes numériques d'approximation de la densité de probabilité associée à des variables aléatoires admettant des distributions composées. Ces variables aléatoires sont couramment utilisées en actuariat pour modéliser le risque supporté par un portefeuille de contrats. En théorie de la ruine, la probabilité de ruine ultime dans le modèle de Poisson composé est égale à la fonction de survie d'une distribution géométrique composée. La méthode numérique proposée consiste en une projection orthogonale de la densité sur une base de polynômes orthogonaux. Ces polynômes sont orthogonaux par rapport à une mesure de probabilité de référence appartenant aux Familles Exponentielles Naturelles Quadratiques. La méthode d'approximation polynomiale est comparée à d'autres méthodes d'approximation de la densité basées sur les moments et la transformée de Laplace de la distribution. L'extension de la méthode en dimension supérieure à $1$ est présentée, ainsi que l'obtention d'un estimateur de la densité à partir de la formule d'approximation. Cette thèse comprend aussi la description d'une méthode d'agrégation adaptée aux portefeuilles de contrats d'assurance vie de type épargne individuelle. La procédure d'agrégation conduit à la construction de model points pour permettre l'évaluation des provisions best estimate dans des temps raisonnables et conformément à la directive européenne Solvabilité II. / This PhD thesis studies numerical methods to approximate the probability density function of random variables governed by compound distributions. These random variables are useful in actuarial science to model the risk of a portfolio of contracts. In ruin theory, the probability of ultimate ruin within the compound Poisson ruin model is the survival function of a geometric compound distribution. The proposed method consists in a projection of the probability density function onto an orthogonal polynomial system. These polynomials are orthogonal with respect to a probability measure that belongs to Natural Exponential Families with Quadratic Variance Function. The polynomiam approximation is compared to other numerical methods that recover the probability density function from the knowledge of the moments or the Laplace transform of the distribution. The polynomial method is then extended in a multidimensional setting, along with the probability density estimator derived from the approximation formula. An aggregation procedure adapted to life insurance portfolios is also described. The method aims at building a portfolio of model points in order to compute the best estimate liabilities in a timely manner and in a way that is compliant with the European directive Solvency II.

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We derive formulas for the moments of the ruin time in a Lévy risk model and use these to determine the asymptotic behavior of the moments of the ruin time as the initial capital tends to infinity. In the special case of the perturbed Cramér-Lundberg model with phase-type or even exponentially distributed claims, we explicitly compute the first two moments of the ruin time. All our considerations distinguish between the profitable and the unprofitable setting.