In today’s Nordic construction industry, it is difficult for new and innovative building solutions to be introduced due to prescriptive and inflexible regulations. Trading products and services cross-border is something that could loosen the tough market, but this is not possible due to the lack of common international frameworks that is performance based with the possibility to perform fire safety engineering. This is something that the Nordic Innovation project group called Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions wants to change. By introducing a new probabilistic method to verify fire safety in buildings, with the intention to become a Nordic standard, so will hopefully parts of these problems be resolved. The fourth work package of the project includes field testing of the new method which this thesis is a part of. The idea is to asses and improve the new probabilistic approach by comparing it to an existing non-probabilistic method and introduce ameliorating recommendations. Comparison of the probabilistic method is performed against a Swedish verification process that’s based on the General recommendations on analytical design of fire safety strategy (BBRAD) by verifying fire safety in a car park, that is located below an office building, with both verification methods. The two performance-based analyses treat deviations from a prescriptive solution, performed with the Boverket’s Building Regulations (BBR), and the results of these verifications is compared. The requirements that is verified are; escape in event of fire, protection against the outbreak of fire, protection against the development and spread of fire and smoke in buildings, protection against spread of fire between buildings, possibility of rescue responses and ensuring fire resistance in the structural members. Fire safety designs and approaches for treatment of the deviations are compared and analysed which concludes in the improvement recommendation that’s been presented.  Questions that has been answered during the work process is: How do the methods treat the possibility of a fire safety design without sprinkler? What is the main difference between the two verification methods? Which improvements could be done to the new Probabilistic method?  The recommendations of improvement that has been presented is based on the work process of the probabilistic approach and the comparison with the Swedish verification process. Development of the following areas is advocated: Treatment of critical levels for evacuation scenarios  Form a common Nordic statistical database Improved guidance of how to complete the validation analysis The thesis does not include all parts that’s required in a fire safety design but will merely focus on the deviations of the pre-accepted solution. The verification is only performed on the car park, i.e. the office part of the building is not included. / I dagens nordiska byggbransch är det svårt för nya och innovativa byggnadslösningar att införas på grund av de preskriptiva och fyrkantiga regelverk som finns. Handel av produkter och tjänster över gränserna är något som kan luckra upp den tuffa marknaden, men det är svårt på grund av bristen utav gemensamma internationella regelverk som är funktionsbaserade med möjlighet till fire safety engeinnering. Det är något som ett nordiskt innovationsprojekt kallat Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions vill förändra. Genom att införa en ny probabilistisk metod för att verifiera brandsäkerheten i byggnader, med avsikten att skapa en nordisk standard, kan förhoppningsvis delar av dessa problem lösas. Det fjärde arbetspaketet inom projektet består av att testa den nya metoden, vilket denna avhandling är en del av. Tanken är att bedöma och ta fram förbättringsförslag till den nya probabilistiska metoden genom att jämföra den med en befintlig scenariobaserad metod och presentera förbättringsrekommendationer. Jämförelse av probabilistiska metoden utförs mot en svensk verifieringsprocess som baseras på Boverkets allmänna råd om analytisk dimensionering av byggnaders brandskydd (BBRAD) genom att verifiera brandsäkerheten i ett parkeringsgarage, som ligger under en kontorsbyggnad, med båda verifieringsmetoderna. De två funktionsbaserade analyserna behandlar avvikelser från en förenklad dimensionering, som är utförd enligt Boverkets Byggregler (BBR), och resultaten av dessa verifikationer jämförs. De krav som verifieras är; utrymning i händelse av brand, skydd mot uppkomst av brand, skydd mot utveckling och spridning av brand och rök i byggnader, skydd mot brandspridning mellan byggnader, möjlighet till räddningsinsats och att säkerställa bärförmåga vid brand. Brandskyddets utformning och metodernas behandling av avvikelserna jämförs och analyseras vilket konkluderar i de rekommendationer för förbättring som presenteras. Frågor som har besvarats under arbetsprocessen är: Hur behandlar metoderna möjligheten att dimensionera brandsäkerheten utan sprinklersystem? Vad är den stora skillnaden mellan de två verifieringsmetoderna? Vilka förbättringar kan göras på den nya probabilistiska metoden? Rekommendationerna till förbättring som har tagits fram är baserad på arbetsprocessen i den probabilistiska metoden och jämförelsen med den svenska verifieringsprocessen. Utveckling av följande områden förespråkas: Behandling av kritiska nivåer i utrymningsscenarion Uppställning av en gemensam statistiskdatabas för de nordiska länderna Förbättrad förklaring om hur man utför valideringarna av analysen Avhandlingen omfattar inte alla delar som behövs vid bandskyddsprojektering utan fokusera endast på avvikelserna från den förenklade dimensioneringen. Verifikationen är endast utförd på parkeringsgaraget, det vill säga kontorsdelen av byggnaden behandlas inte. / Fire Safety Engineering for Innovative and Sustainable Building Solutions

There exists no predefined framework for aviation policy making and development. While aviation policy planning in most developed countries comes as a result of institutional and industry coordination and is embedded within other national policies addressing the welfare and growth of the country, it is found that in many cases in less developed countries (LDCs), aviation policy planning is often influenced by political pressures and the interests of fund donors. The complexity of this situation in the developing countries results in aviation plans that represent stand alone studies and attempt to find solutions to specific problems rather than comprehensive aviation plans which fit well the country‘s competitiveness profile and are properly coordinated with other national policies for achieving medium and long-term objectives. This study provides a three-stage policy development framework for aviation strategic planning based on situational analysis and performance benchmarking practices in order to assemble policy elements and produce a best-fit aviation strategy. The framework builds on study results that indicate an association between air transport sector performance and aviation policy strategies, arguing that it is not sufficient to simply describe performance but also to be able to assess it and understand how policymakers can use strategic planning tools to affect the air transport industry efficiency levels. This can be achieved by recognizing the level of the country‘s stage of development and working on enhancing the policy elements that produce better output and induce more contributions by aviation to the national economic development and connectivity levels. The proposed aviation policy development framework is systematic and continuous. It helps policymakers in LDC to manage uncertainty in complex situations by allowing them to defend, correct and re-examine the policy actions based on a forward thinking approach which incorporates the contingency elements of the policy and tracks the developments that can affect the odds of its success. The framework‘s elements and its flow of process are explained by providing an illustrative example applied to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-06-15T13:59:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 WISLAYNE AIRES MOREIRA_.pdf: 1071106 bytes, checksum: e020fcd4feaf1e0473221051a68d300e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-15T13:59:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 WISLAYNE AIRES MOREIRA_.pdf: 1071106 bytes, checksum: e020fcd4feaf1e0473221051a68d300e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-02 / IFTO - Instituto Federal de Educação, Ciência e Tecnologia do Tocantins / A despeito de o Brasil ser considerado o segundo produtor mundial de biodiesel, o norte do Brasil representa apenas 2% da produção desse biocombustível. O estado do Tocantins (TO) possui uma demanda que é superior ao que é produzido por mês de biodiesel e o governo estadual tem grande interesse em expandir a cadeia de biodiesel. Com o desenvolvimento da região de MATOPIBA (limites do Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia), as expectativas de crescimento da cadeia só tendem aumentar. Considerando essas informações, este trabalho tem como objetivo construir os cenários da cadeia produtiva do TO, buscando os fatores que limitam o seu crescimento. O referencial teórico apresenta questões sobre impactos ambientais, biodiesel, cadeia produtiva do biodiesel, cadeia produtiva da soja e análise dos cenários. O método de pesquisa utilizado é de caráter aplicado, qualitativo, exploratório. Para esse fim, foram realizadas entrevistas com principais elos da cadeia produtiva de biodiesel do TO, que são: representante do governo, representante de instituição pública e, representantes da agricultura familiar. Através da análise sugerida por Van der Heijden (2005), quatro cenários para a cadeia produtiva de biodiesel do Tocantins foram construídos, com base nos fatores políticos e legal, econômico, social, tecnológico e ecológico. Como contribuições, analisa-se a influência que as incertezas críticas a nível político, econômico, social, tecnológico, ecológico e legal podem gerar sobre a cadeia de produção de biodiesel do Tocantins. Desta análise, através dos cenários, busca-se sugerir meios para as empresas mitigarem os impactos ocasionados pelas incertezas críticas e que impeçam o seu crescimento. / Despite Brazil is considered the second largest producer of biodiesel, northern Brazil, produces only 2% of such biofuel. Tocantins (TO) have a demand that is superior to that produced by month of biodiesel, and the state government is keen to expand the biodiesel chain. With the development of MATOPIBA region (limits of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia) growth expectations of the chain only tend to increase. Considering this information, this work aims to build scenarios of the production chain of TO, seeking the factors that limit their growth. The theoretical framework it presents questions about environmental impacts, biodiesel, biodiesel production chain, the soybean production chain, analysis of scenarios. The research method is applied character, qualitative, exploratory. To this end, interviews were conducted with key links the production chain of biodiesel TO, that they are representative of the government, public institution representative and representatives of family farming. Through the analysis suggested by Van der Heijden (2005), four scenarios for the productive chain of Tocantins biodiesel were built, based on political and legal factors, economic, social, technological and ecological. As contributions, analyzes the influence that critical uncertainties the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal level can generate on the Tocantins biodiesel production chain. From this analysis, through the scenarios, we try to suggest ways for companies to mitigate the impacts caused by the critical uncertainties and to prevent their growth.

This study is to discuss the business investment strategy risk management model. The enterprise could identify, analysis the investment relative risks and establish the contingency strategy to management the risks in accordance with this model. This study selects the third generation digital mobile communication system to be the research objective. The business investment strategy risk management model could identify the investment strategy position of the industry value process in accordance with the value chain and cash flow. And the model could provide the framework and relationship of the relative risk variables through the risk variable system diagram. This model builds the scenarios of the industry and analyses different situations of the industry for forecasting the contingency strategy of the business. The contingency strategy is established for business implementing risk management of the high technology and high-risk investment. The 3G system is underling the high-level uncertainty status. The risk is increased by high license price, high infrastructure cost, technology development delay and none killer application etc. This study suggests the 3G Mobil communication company should implement the risk management actions for following items: ¡´The user ratio of 2005 ¡´The difference of 3G and 2.5G products¡C ¡´The competitive of system supplier capability. ¡´The supply chain of add-value service. ¡´Competitor status and strategy. ¡´Globe political and economic situation. This study suggests the business should implement the risk management model when it processing the high technology and high-risk investment. This model provides the risk identification, measuring, analysis, evaluation process and follow-up contingency strategy. The business could effectively manage the risk and ensure the competition by the model.

New and growing demands to finite and fully allocated water resources in the semi-arid southwestern United States mean that existing water resources must be managed with increasing efficiency to minimize shortages and associated social conflict. Computer based simulations can provide a powerful tool to aid in policy related decisions. This dissertation describes the development of a simulation model of the Rio Grande surface water and groundwater system for use in scenario evaluation. The primary model goal is to integrate cross disciplinary science at a basin scale, and make it easily accessible to a wide range of stakeholders. To achieve this at a river basin scale, three existing groundwater models and one surface water model were simplified and combined in a system dynamics framework using the commercial software package Powersim Studio 2005. To this physical model, a simple human behavioral model and user interface was added. The resulting scenario evaluation tool runs 40 year simulations on a laptop computer in tens of seconds, with inputs that are easily changed by non-expert users via a graphic, user friendly interface.

Land use/land cover (LULC) change and variations in precipitation can alter the quantity and quality of freshwater flows. The Mission-Aransas (M-A) estuary depends on inputs of freshwater and material from streams in order to maintain its ecological integrity. Freshwater inflow estimates for the M-A estuary have been established, but no analyses using scenarios of LULC change and precipitation variability have been conducted that inform how freshwater inflows could be impacted. A land change analysis for the M-A region was conducted by classifying two Landsat images for the years 1990 and 2010. A large degree of LULC change occurred within the M-A region during this time; with 27.1% of the land area experiencing LULC change. Furthermore, developed land increased by 44.9%. A SWAT hydrological model was developed to model the quantity and quality of freshwater inflows. SWAT was calibrated at a monthly scale using data from a stream gage. Model evaluations indicated that the model had a good performance rating with a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NS) of 0.66 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.66 for the calibration period; and an NS of 0.76 and R2 of 0.78 for the validation period. Three LULC change scenarios and three precipitation scenarios were developed to be used in a scenario analysis with the calibrated SWAT model. Each LULC change scenario represents a different amount of developed land (3.4, 3.7, and 4.7% of watershed area). Precipitation data was analyzed to select weather data for each precipitation scenario that each had different amounts of annual precipitation (763, 907, and 996 mm). A scenario analysis was conducted that analyzed how stream/channel flows and loads of sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were impacted under scenario conditions. A general increase in all output variables was exhibited as the amount of precipitation and developed land increased; with impacts from precipitation variability outweighing impacts from varying amounts of developed land. Furthermore, sediment loads were the variable most impacted by differing amounts of developed land. This study provides information on how LULC and precipitation can influence watershed hydrology that can be used in watershed management for the M-A region.

There exists no predefined framework for aviation policy making and development. While aviation policy planning in most developed countries comes as a result of institutional and industry coordination and is embedded within other national policies addressing the welfare and growth of the country, it is found that in many cases in less developed countries (LDCs), aviation policy planning is often influenced by political pressures and the interests of fund donors. The complexity of this situation in the developing countries results in aviation plans that represent stand alone studies and attempt to find solutions to specific problems rather than comprehensive aviation plans which fit well the country‘s competitiveness profile and are properly coordinated with other national policies for achieving medium and long-term objectives. This study provides a three-stage policy development framework for aviation strategic planning based on situational analysis and performance benchmarking practices in order to assemble policy elements and produce a best-fit aviation strategy. The framework builds on study results that indicate an association between air transport sector performance and aviation policy strategies, arguing that it is not sufficient to simply describe performance but also to be able to assess it and understand how policymakers can use strategic planning tools to affect the air transport industry efficiency levels. This can be achieved by recognizing the level of the country‘s stage of development and working on enhancing the policy elements that produce better output and induce more contributions by aviation to the national economic development and connectivity levels. The proposed aviation policy development framework is systematic and continuous. It helps policymakers in LDC to manage uncertainty in complex situations by allowing them to defend, correct and re-examine the policy actions based on a forward thinking approach which incorporates the contingency elements of the policy and tracks the developments that can affect the odds of its success. The framework‘s elements and its flow of process are explained by providing an illustrative example applied to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(エネルギー科学) / 甲第23997号 / エネ博第433号 / 新制||エネ||82(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院エネルギー科学研究科エネルギー社会・環境科学専攻 / (主査)教授 石原 慶一, 教授 白井 康之, 准教授 尾形 清一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Energy Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

Traditional macroeconometric models of the Australian economy estimate the behaviour of wage and price inflation separately, thereby ignoring the possibility that there is a contemporaneous relationship between these two variables. This thesis follows a recent trend emerging in other small open economies, such as the UK and Norway, which is to estimate the behaviour of wage and price inflation in a simultaneous-equations model. In order to capture the behaviour of the major variables which drive wages and prices, a complete model is constructed which embeds these important transmission channels. The model is developed in three stages. First, underpinned by a theoretical framework of a unionized economy with imperfect competition, the core wage- price system is developed whereby consumer prices and average weekly earnings are jointly estimated in a simultaneous-equations framework. Particular atten- tion is given to estimating two identified cointegrating relationships for wages and prices. These equations are interpreted as the long-run targets of workers and firms respectively and are embedded in a parsimonious system of short-run dynamics which drive wages and prices towards their long-run levels. Second, llie behaviour of llie main feedback variables driving llie wage-price system is modelled, with particular attention given to the unemployment rate. While several of the most recent models of unemployment show that the aggregate unemployment rate in Australia does indeed behave differently during periods of low and high unemployment, none can explain what drives the unemployment rate to increase at such a rapid rate and what contributes to its much slower decrease. Another central issue of this thesis, therefore, is to propose a rationale for this as yet unexplained phenomenon. The remaining behavioural variables in the model, including aggregate labour productivity, domestic output and the real exchange rate, are all estimated in a single-equation framework. Third, these equations are then combined with a number of important identi- ties and an interest-rate reaction function to close the model. Then, the impacts of several simulated economic scenarios on Australia's economic landscape are considered. Special emphasis is given to analysing the impact of a large nomi- nal wage shock. The outcomes from these simulated scenarios are pertinent to understanding the inflation process and have important implications for a small open economy like Australia with an explicit inflation target. Overall, the major result to emerge from this thesis is that there is significant statistical support for the hypothesis that wage and price inflation in Australia are jointly determined. This phenomenon has not yet been fully exploited in current macroeconometric models of the Australian economy. The modelling exercise also reveals that the Australian unemployment rate is linear in demand and labour productivity shocks, with nonlinear behaviour caused by real wage rigidity and generous unemployment benefits. Importantly, this simple model is able to simulate the behaviour of the Australian economy extremely well. The outcome from the policy scenarios is clear: both demand-side and supply-side shocks have real and nominal effects on the economy in the short- to medium- run, ceteris paribus. Moreover, a large nominal wage shock to the economy, which results in a real wage rise, will have no sustained effect on the level of domestic activity in the economy, the inflation rate or the real exchange rate. Unemployment is, however, pushed slightly above equilibrium in the short- to medium-run due to a sustained higher real wage level.

På grund av osäkerheter i indata, parametrar och modellstruktur kan det finnas stora osäkerheter i översvämningskarteringar. Trots detta sker oftast ingen osäkerhetsanalys vid översvämningskarteringar i praktiken vilket gör att beslutsfattare och andra användare kan uppfatta resultaten som mer korrekta än vad de egentligen är. En orsak till att osäkerhetsanalys ännu inte blivit en vedertagen del i översvämningskarteringar kan vara att modellerare på konsultbyråer och myndigheter inte har tillräcklig kunskap om ämnet. Att tillgången på data kan vara begränsad underlättar inte heller vid osäkerhetsanalyser. Dessutom saknas exempel på hur osäkerheter kan analyseras i MIKE 11, vilket är en av de vanligaste modellerna som används vid översvämningskarteringar på konsultbyråer. Syftet med examensarbetet var tvåfaldigt. Det första var att ge en generell kunskapsöverblick över aktuell forskning om osäkerheter och osäkerhetsanalys vid översvämningskarteringar för att öka kunskapen hos konsulter och beslutsfattare. Det andra syftet var att med ett exempel visa hur osäkerheter kan uppskattas i en översvämningskartering skapad i MIKE 11 då det finns begränsad tillgång på data. En litteraturstudie visade att det ofta finns stora osäkerheter i flödesberäkningar och den geometriska beskrivningen och att det finns väldigt många sätt att analysera dessa på. Några av metoderna som används är Monte Carlo simuleringar, Oskarpa mängder, Scenarioanalys, Bayesiansk kalibrering och Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, GLUE. En fallstudie gjordes där en hydraulisk modell av Kungsbackaån skapades med MIKE 11. Den metod som var praktiskt genomförbar att använda för att uppskatta osäkerheterna i detta arbete var scenarioanalys. Totalt utfördes 36 olika modellsimuleringar där kalibreringsflöde, Mannings tal och scenarioflöde varierades. Scenarioanalys ger inte någon exakt beräkning av osäkerheterna utan endast en subjektiv uppskattning. Resultatet av scenarioanalysen visade att då havsnivån i Kungsbackafjorden var 0,92 m skiljde de simulerada vattennivåerna som mest med 1,3 m för 100-årsflödet och med 0,41 m för beräknat högsta flöde, BHF. Även osäkerheterna i utbredningen för de två flödena undersöktes och visade sig vara som störst i flacka områden trots att osäkerheten i vattennivåerna var mindre där. / Due to uncertainty in data, parameters and model structure, there may be large uncertainties in flood inundation models. Despite of this, uncertainty analysis is still rarely used by practitioners when creating flood maps. A reason why uncertainty analysis has not yet become customary in flood inundation modeling may be due to a lack of knowledge. Low availability of data can sometimes also make it more difficult to do an uncertainty analysis. Moreover, no examples exist of how uncertainties can be analyzed in MIKE 11, which is one of the most common models used in flood mapping at consultant agencies. The aim of this study was twofold. Firstly, to provide a general overview of current research on uncertainty and uncertainty analysis for flood inundation modeling. This in order to increase knowledge among consultants and decision makers. Secondly, to give an example of how uncertainties can be estimated in a flood inundation model created in MIKE 11 when there is limited access to data. The research overview showed that there is often considerable uncertainty in the discharge calculations and geometrical description in hydraulic models, and that there are many different ways to analyze the uncertainties. Some methods that are often used are Monte Carlo simulations, fuzzy sets, scenario analysis, Bayesian calibration and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, GLUE. A case study was performed in which a hydraulic model was built for the River Kungsbackaån in MIKE 11. A scenario analysis was carried out to show the uncertainties in the hydraulic model. Overall, 36 different model runs were made in which the calibration discharge, Manning's number and design flow were varied. Scenario analysis cannot provide a precise estimate of the uncertainty, it can only give a subjective estimate. The results of the scenario analysis showed that when the sea level in Kungsbackafjorden was 0,92 m the simulated water levels differed at most by 1,3 m for the 100-year discharge and by 0,41 m for the calculated maximum flow. Also, the flood extent of the two discharges were investigated. The greatest uncertainty in the extent was found in the flat areas even though the uncertainty in water levels was smaller there.