This study aimed to develop and validate a rating scale for assessing English First Additional Language essays at Grade 12 level for the final National Senior Certificate examination. The importance of writing as a communicative skill is emphasised with the re-introduction of writing as Paper 3 of the English First Additional Language examination at the end of Grade 12 in South Africa. No empirical evidence, however, is available to support claims of validity for the current rating scale. The literature on the concept of validity and the process of validation was surveyed. Theoretical models and validation frameworks were evaluated to establish a theoretical base for the development and validation of a rating scale for assessing writing. The adopted framework was used to evaluate the adequacy of the current rating scale used for assessing Grade 12 writing in South Africa. The current scale was evaluated in terms of the degree to which it offers an appropriate means of assessing Grade 12 Level essay writing while adhering to requirements of the National Curriculum Statement. It was found lacking and the need for a new, validated rating scale was established. Various approaches to scale development were considered in consideration of factors that impact scores directly, viz. the type of rating scale, rater characteristics, scoring procedures and rater training. A new scale was developed and validated following an empirical procedure comprising four phases. The empirical process was based on an analysis of actual performances of Grade 12 English learner writing. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was used in each of the four phases to ensure the validity of the instrument. The outcome of this project was an empirically developed and validated multiple trait rating scale to assess Grade 12 essay writing. The proposed scale distinguishes five criteria assessed by means of a seven-point scale. / Thesis (Ph.D. (English))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

The credit scoring with the help of classification techniques provides to take easy and quick decisions in lending. However, no definite consensus has been reached with regard to the best method for credit scoring and in what conditions the methods performs best. Although a huge range of classification techniques has been used in this area, the logistic regression has been seen an important tool and used very widely in studies. This study aims to examine accuracy and bias properties in parameter estimation of the logistic regression by using Monte Carlo simulations in four aspect which are dimension of the sets, length, the included percentage defaults in data and effect of variables on estimation. Moreover, application of some important statistical and non-statistical methods on Turkish credit default data is provided and the method accuracies are compared for Turkish market. Finally, ratings on the results of best method is done by using receiver operating characteristic curve.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurological disease characterized by the destruction of central nervous system (CNS) myelin. Although the neurotrophin, brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) has a beneficial role in re-myelination and/or myelin repair, these effects are hampered by the over-expression of a transcriptional repressor isoform of methyl CpG binding protein 2 (MeCP2) called MeCP2E1. We hypothesize that following experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) -induced myelin damage, the immune system induction of the pathogenic MeCP2E1 isoform hampers the re-myelination and/or myelin repair process by repressing BDNF expression. Our research identified the temporal gene and protein expression changes of MeCP2E1, MeCP2E2 and BDNF in an EAE mouse model of MS, and correlated them with the changes in the neurological disability scores (NDS). Our results indicated MeCP2E1 mRNA levels are elevated in EAE animals which is responsible for the repressed BDNF production in the spinal cord that prevents re-myelination and/or myelin repair. / February 2016

Communication can be divied into two broad areas namely, the verbal and nonverbal levels. While attention has been paid to nonverbal communication in the literature, few studies address the nonverbal communication that takes place in the natural setting of a therapeutic session. The present study provides such a naturalistic study, where the verbal content of actual therapy sessions are integrated with the nonverbal content to yield a holistic view of the session. An ecosystemic epistemology is adopted in this study, and represents a move away from more traditional approaches to nonverbal behaviour which are largely confined to a positivistic framework of thought and design. Symlog Interaction Scoring is employed as a practical method of assisting observers in distinguishing nonverbal behaviours, which are usually perceived unconsciously, and lifting them into consciousness, allowing this infonnation to be integrated with the meanings and hypotheses generated during therapy. By deliberately including descriptions of nonverbal behaviour, the descriptions of therapy were broadened, thereby providing a more holistic approach to therapy. / Psychology / M.A. (Clinical Psychology)

The aim of this thesis is to introduce and summarize the process of scoring model development in general and then basic statistical approaches used to resolve this problem, which are in particular logistic regression, neural networks and decision trees (random forests). Application of described methods on a real dataset provided by PROFI CREDIT Czech, a.s. follows, including discussion of some implementation issues and their resolution. Obtained results are discussed and compared.

PEC-PG. CNPq / As cooperativas de crédito são regidas pelos mesmos princípios cooperativistas, mas agregam funções financeiras como os bancos tradicionais. A solidariedade na área financeira permite que as cooperativas de crédito levem aos seus cooperados os fundos poupados ou repassando os de desenvolvimento governamental das políticas públicas em forma de crédito. É evidente, no entanto, que nem sempre os “apoios” são devolvidos da mesma maneira como foram recebidos, neste mundo de muita perfeição e de alta competitividade. Assim, integra o elemento estranho no meio onde se imagina seu difícil acesso, a falta de confiança no cumprimento do contrato de crédito contraído pelos credores (cooperados). É conhecido como Risco de Crédito ou de um eventual não pagamento das dívidas contraídas pelos cooperados, o principal fator para processo de Gestão de Risco de Crédito nas instituições cooperativas do mundo. Desse modo, se insere o problema da pesquisa, sendo nova a gestão de risco nas cooperativas de crédito e num mercado assombrado pelas crises financeiras, e com isso se questiona: em que medida ou em que ponto o cumprimento das normas da gestão de risco de crédito nessas instituições vem sendo atendido? Com base nessa preocupação, traçaram-se os objetivos, que apontam em avaliar as práticas de gestão de risco em cooperativas de crédito do Sudoeste do Paraná (PR) de acordo com as resoluções do Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN). Para isso, tem-se como objetivos específicos: listar as práticas de gestão de risco necessárias para a concessão de crédito; identificar de que forma estão sendo abordadas as práticas de gestão de risco de crédito, considerando-se normas de CMN; verificar qual é o impacto da gestão de risco percebido pelos gestores nas cooperativas de crédito; levantar em termos quantitativos quanto essas cooperativas perdem anualmente em inadimplência (default); comparar as práticas das cooperativas pesquisadas entre si e com as resoluções do CMN. O trabalho se justifica pela importância do processo de gestão de risco para as instituições cooperativas, para a academia e pela contribuição no reforço àquilo que o CMN vem recomendado nas suas resoluções. Para se atingir os resultados pretendidos, foi aplicado um estudo de caso múltiplo nas cooperativas CRESOL, SICOOB e SICREDI/PR, com abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa, em parte com dados secundários e primários. Os dados secundários foram levantados por meio da revisão da literatura referente às áreas de cooperativismo em geral e de crédito, a gestão de risco de crédito e normas e as resoluções do CMN sobre o tema, além de informações nos Relatórios Financeiros das três cooperativas. Os dados primários foram levantados por meio de aplicação de questionário nessas instituições, sendo entrevistados os Gerentes de Crédito, o Assessor Sênior da Controladoria e o Assessor e Supervisor de Crédito. Os dados levantados foram comparados entre as informações dos entrevistados da mesma instituição e depois com as outras, sendo que, na análise dos dados, os nomes das mesmas (instituições) deixaram de ser citadas e foi atribuído o nome de CASO (CASO1, CASO2, e 3 ). Foi identificada uma preocupação com a gestão de risco nessas instituições. Também se percebeu que o crédito só é liberado quando passa por análise de, no mínimo, três pessoas. Existem procedimentos de análise de crédito que seguem todas as alçadas necessárias para que a proposta seja deferida e também são avaliados de acordo com a renda do proponente e as cooperativas singulares são classificadas de acordo com seus patrimônios de Referências (PR) e Patrimônios de Referências exigidas (PRE), para receberem crédito das suas centrais e até para liberarem crédito aos seus cooperados Pessoa Jurídica, caso existam. Mesmo assim, foram localizadas as perdas (prejuízos), algumas mais acentuadas do que outras. Percebe-se que ainda existem reduzidos estudos sobre gestão de risco nas cooperativas de crédito, dada à situação em que se encontravam as mesmas, mas atualmente vale reforçar as pesquisas para conhecer como essas instituições lidam com a gestão de risco de crédito e outros riscos. / Credit unions are governed by the same cooperative principles but add financial functions as traditional banks. Solidarity in the financial area allows credit unions to take to their members or transferring funds spared government development of public policy in the form of credit. But it is not always clear that the "support" are returned the same way they were received, in this world of too much perfection and high competitiveness. Integrates the foreign element in the middle where you think its difficult access, lack of confidence in the fulfillment of the credit agreement contracted by creditors (cooperative). Known as credit risk or a possible non-payment of debts contracted by the cooperatives the main factor for Credit Risk Management process in cooperative institutions in the world. Thus falls the research problem, and new risk management in credit unions and a market haunted by financial crises, and if it asks: To what extent or at what point the compliance of the management of credit risk these institutions has been met? Based on this concern were traced objectives, which aim to assess the practices of risk management in credit unions Southwest of Paraná (PR) according to the resolutions of the National Monetary Council (CMN). For this, one has the following specific objectives: List the risk management practices needed to grant credit; Identify how they are being addressed management practices of credit risk considering CMN standard; Ascertain the impact of the management of risk perceived by managers in credit unions; Rise in quantitative terms as these cooperatives lost annually in default; Compare practices of cooperatives surveyed each other and with the resolutions of the CMN. The work is justified by the importance of the risk management process for cooperative institutions, academia and the contribution to the reinforcement to what the CMN has been recommended in its resolutions. And to achieve the desired results a study of multiple case was applied in cooperative CRESOL, SICOOB and SICREDI / PR, with qualitative and quantitative approach in part with secondary and primary data. The secondary data were collected by reviewing the literature pertaining to the areas of cooperative movement in general and credit risk management and credit standards and CMN resolutions on the topic, also collected in the Financial Reports of the three Credit unions. Primary data were collected through a questionnaire in these institutions, being interviewed Managers of Credit, Senior Advisor of the Comptroller, Assessor and Supervisor of Credit. And the data obtained were compared to the information of the respondents from the same institution and then with the other, in the data analysis of the same names (institutions) are no longer quoted and was assigned the name of CASE (case1 case2 and 3). A concern with risk management in these institutions was identified. Also noticed that credit is only been released when passing by analysis of at least three people. There are procedures for credit analysis that follows all the necessary limits for the proposal to be granted and are evaluated according to the income of the applicant and the individual cooperatives are classified according to their Wealth of References (PR in Portuguese) and Heritage References Required (PRE in Portuguese), to receive credit of their plants and up to release credit to their members Corporations if any. Yet losses were located some steeper others do not. Realize that there are still smaller studies on risk management in credit unions, given the situation they were in the same, but is currently worth strengthen research to know how these institutions deal with the management of credit risk and other risks. / 5000

PEC-PG. CNPq / As cooperativas de crédito são regidas pelos mesmos princípios cooperativistas, mas agregam funções financeiras como os bancos tradicionais. A solidariedade na área financeira permite que as cooperativas de crédito levem aos seus cooperados os fundos poupados ou repassando os de desenvolvimento governamental das políticas públicas em forma de crédito. É evidente, no entanto, que nem sempre os “apoios” são devolvidos da mesma maneira como foram recebidos, neste mundo de muita perfeição e de alta competitividade. Assim, integra o elemento estranho no meio onde se imagina seu difícil acesso, a falta de confiança no cumprimento do contrato de crédito contraído pelos credores (cooperados). É conhecido como Risco de Crédito ou de um eventual não pagamento das dívidas contraídas pelos cooperados, o principal fator para processo de Gestão de Risco de Crédito nas instituições cooperativas do mundo. Desse modo, se insere o problema da pesquisa, sendo nova a gestão de risco nas cooperativas de crédito e num mercado assombrado pelas crises financeiras, e com isso se questiona: em que medida ou em que ponto o cumprimento das normas da gestão de risco de crédito nessas instituições vem sendo atendido? Com base nessa preocupação, traçaram-se os objetivos, que apontam em avaliar as práticas de gestão de risco em cooperativas de crédito do Sudoeste do Paraná (PR) de acordo com as resoluções do Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN). Para isso, tem-se como objetivos específicos: listar as práticas de gestão de risco necessárias para a concessão de crédito; identificar de que forma estão sendo abordadas as práticas de gestão de risco de crédito, considerando-se normas de CMN; verificar qual é o impacto da gestão de risco percebido pelos gestores nas cooperativas de crédito; levantar em termos quantitativos quanto essas cooperativas perdem anualmente em inadimplência (default); comparar as práticas das cooperativas pesquisadas entre si e com as resoluções do CMN. O trabalho se justifica pela importância do processo de gestão de risco para as instituições cooperativas, para a academia e pela contribuição no reforço àquilo que o CMN vem recomendado nas suas resoluções. Para se atingir os resultados pretendidos, foi aplicado um estudo de caso múltiplo nas cooperativas CRESOL, SICOOB e SICREDI/PR, com abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa, em parte com dados secundários e primários. Os dados secundários foram levantados por meio da revisão da literatura referente às áreas de cooperativismo em geral e de crédito, a gestão de risco de crédito e normas e as resoluções do CMN sobre o tema, além de informações nos Relatórios Financeiros das três cooperativas. Os dados primários foram levantados por meio de aplicação de questionário nessas instituições, sendo entrevistados os Gerentes de Crédito, o Assessor Sênior da Controladoria e o Assessor e Supervisor de Crédito. Os dados levantados foram comparados entre as informações dos entrevistados da mesma instituição e depois com as outras, sendo que, na análise dos dados, os nomes das mesmas (instituições) deixaram de ser citadas e foi atribuído o nome de CASO (CASO1, CASO2, e 3 ). Foi identificada uma preocupação com a gestão de risco nessas instituições. Também se percebeu que o crédito só é liberado quando passa por análise de, no mínimo, três pessoas. Existem procedimentos de análise de crédito que seguem todas as alçadas necessárias para que a proposta seja deferida e também são avaliados de acordo com a renda do proponente e as cooperativas singulares são classificadas de acordo com seus patrimônios de Referências (PR) e Patrimônios de Referências exigidas (PRE), para receberem crédito das suas centrais e até para liberarem crédito aos seus cooperados Pessoa Jurídica, caso existam. Mesmo assim, foram localizadas as perdas (prejuízos), algumas mais acentuadas do que outras. Percebe-se que ainda existem reduzidos estudos sobre gestão de risco nas cooperativas de crédito, dada à situação em que se encontravam as mesmas, mas atualmente vale reforçar as pesquisas para conhecer como essas instituições lidam com a gestão de risco de crédito e outros riscos. / Credit unions are governed by the same cooperative principles but add financial functions as traditional banks. Solidarity in the financial area allows credit unions to take to their members or transferring funds spared government development of public policy in the form of credit. But it is not always clear that the "support" are returned the same way they were received, in this world of too much perfection and high competitiveness. Integrates the foreign element in the middle where you think its difficult access, lack of confidence in the fulfillment of the credit agreement contracted by creditors (cooperative). Known as credit risk or a possible non-payment of debts contracted by the cooperatives the main factor for Credit Risk Management process in cooperative institutions in the world. Thus falls the research problem, and new risk management in credit unions and a market haunted by financial crises, and if it asks: To what extent or at what point the compliance of the management of credit risk these institutions has been met? Based on this concern were traced objectives, which aim to assess the practices of risk management in credit unions Southwest of Paraná (PR) according to the resolutions of the National Monetary Council (CMN). For this, one has the following specific objectives: List the risk management practices needed to grant credit; Identify how they are being addressed management practices of credit risk considering CMN standard; Ascertain the impact of the management of risk perceived by managers in credit unions; Rise in quantitative terms as these cooperatives lost annually in default; Compare practices of cooperatives surveyed each other and with the resolutions of the CMN. The work is justified by the importance of the risk management process for cooperative institutions, academia and the contribution to the reinforcement to what the CMN has been recommended in its resolutions. And to achieve the desired results a study of multiple case was applied in cooperative CRESOL, SICOOB and SICREDI / PR, with qualitative and quantitative approach in part with secondary and primary data. The secondary data were collected by reviewing the literature pertaining to the areas of cooperative movement in general and credit risk management and credit standards and CMN resolutions on the topic, also collected in the Financial Reports of the three Credit unions. Primary data were collected through a questionnaire in these institutions, being interviewed Managers of Credit, Senior Advisor of the Comptroller, Assessor and Supervisor of Credit. And the data obtained were compared to the information of the respondents from the same institution and then with the other, in the data analysis of the same names (institutions) are no longer quoted and was assigned the name of CASE (case1 case2 and 3). A concern with risk management in these institutions was identified. Also noticed that credit is only been released when passing by analysis of at least three people. There are procedures for credit analysis that follows all the necessary limits for the proposal to be granted and are evaluated according to the income of the applicant and the individual cooperatives are classified according to their Wealth of References (PR in Portuguese) and Heritage References Required (PRE in Portuguese), to receive credit of their plants and up to release credit to their members Corporations if any. Yet losses were located some steeper others do not. Realize that there are still smaller studies on risk management in credit unions, given the situation they were in the same, but is currently worth strengthen research to know how these institutions deal with the management of credit risk and other risks. / 5000

The aim is to develop a new decision-making model for credit-loans. The model will be specific for credit applicants of the OKQ8 bank, becauseit is based on data of earlier applicants of credit from the client (the bank). The final model is, in effect, functional enough to use informationabout a new applicant as input, and predict the outcome to either the good risk group or the bad risk group based on the applicant’s properties.The prediction may then lay the foundation for the decision to grant or deny credit loan. Because of the skewed distribution in the response variable, different sampling techniques are evaluated. These include oversampling with SMOTE, random undersampling and pure oversampling in the form of scalar weighting of the minority class. It is shown that the predictivequality of a classifier is affected by the distribution of the response, and that the oversampled information is not too redundant. Three classification techniques are evaluated. Our results suggest that a multi-layer neural network with 18 neurons in a hidden layer, equippedwith an ensemble technique called boosting, gives the best predictive power. The most successful model is based on a feed forward structure andtrained with a variant of back-propagation using conjugate-gradient optimization. Two other models with a good prediction quality are developed using logistic regression and a decision tree classifier, but they do not reach thelevel of the network. However, the results of these models are used to answer the question regarding which customer properties are importantwhen determining credit risk. Two examples of important customer properties are income and the number of earlier credit reports of the applicant. Finally, we use the best classification model to predict the outcome of a set of applicants declined by the existent filter. The results show that thenetwork model accepts over 60 % of the applicants who had previously been denied credit. This may indicate that the client’s suspicionsregarding that the existing model is too restrictive, in fact are true.

信用風險或信用違約意旨金融機構提供給客戶服務卻未得償還的機率，故其在銀行信貸決策的領域是常被鑽研的對象，因為其對於金融機構所扮演的角色尤其重要，對商業銀行來說更是常難以解釋或控制，然而拜現今進步的科技所賜，金融機構可以藉由操控較過去低的成本即可進一步發展強健且精煉的系統與模型去做預測還有信用風險的控管，有鑑於對客戶的評分自大數據時代來臨起，即使是學生亦開始有了可以評鑑的痕跡，憑藉前人所實驗或仰賴的基本考量面向如客戶基本資料、財力狀況或是其於該公司今昔的借貸訊息，再輔以藉由開放資料所帶來的資訊，發想可能影響信用違約率的變數如外在規範對該客戶的紀錄，想驗證是否真有尚可開發的方向，若有則其影響可以到多深。 眾所皆知從過去到現在即有很多種方法被開創以及提出以預測信用違約率，當然所使用的方法和金融機構本身的複雜性、規模大小以及信貸類型有關，最常見的有判別分析，但其對於變數有嚴格的假設，而新興的方法神經網路可以克服判別分析的缺陷且預測的效能也不錯，但神經網路只給予預測結果而運算過程是未知的，對於想要了解變數間的關係無濟於事，故還是選擇從可以對二元分類做預測亦可以藉由模型係數看到應變數和自變數間關係的羅吉斯迴歸方法著手，而研究過程即是依著前人對於羅吉斯迴歸在信用風險上的繩索摸索，將資料如何清理、變數如何轉換、模型如何建立以及最後如何篩選做一個完整的陳述，縱然長道漫漫，對於研究假設在結果終得驗證也始見曙光，考慮的新面向確有其影響力，而在模型係數上也看到其影響的大小，為了更彰顯羅吉斯迴歸對於變數間提供的訊息，故在最後將研究結果以較文字易讀的視覺化方式作呈現。 / Credit risk or credit default means the probability of non-repayment that banks or financial institutions get after they provide services to their customers. Credit risk is also studied intensively in the field of bank lending strategy because it’s usually hard to interpret and control. However, thanks to advanced technology nowadays, banks can manipulate reduced cost to develop robust and well-trained system and models so as to predict and mange credit risk. In the light of the score on customers from the beginning of big data era, every single one can be tracked to assess even though he or she is student. Relying on common facets like personal information, financial statement and past relationship of loan in a specific bank, come up with possible variables like regulations which influence credit risk according to information from open data. Try to verify if there is a new aspect of modeling and how far it effects. As everyone knows, there are several created and offered methodologies in order to predict credit default. They differ from complexity of banks and institutions, size and type of loan. One of the most popular method is discriminant analysis, but variables are restricted to its assumption. Neural network can fix the flaws of the assumption and work efficiently. Considering the unknown process of calculation in neural network, choose logistic regression as research method which can see the relationship between variables and predict the binary category. With the posterior research on credit risk, make a complete statement about how to clean data, how to transform variables and how to build or screen models. Although the procedure is complicated, the result of this study still validates original hypothesis that new aspect indeed has an impact on credit risk and the coefficient shows how deep it affects.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / The water quality in many Cape Town Rivers and streams is a major challenge. Kuils River is subject to multiple land use impacts from upstream to downstream because of rapid urbanization in its catchment area. The main pollution sources are urban and industrial, organic matter from litter under the road-bridge, and golf course. However no systematic efforts have been made to evaluate and improve the health of the river in term of management. To assess impacts on water quality, this study was conducted from 4th September to 27th November 2012 in 5 selected sites in the upper reach of the Kuils river. The main aim was to compare the health of the river in 2012 with that found in 2005 using physical and chemical characteristics and the South Africa Scoring System (SASS). The statistical analysis showed a significant difference between and within sites. The water temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, total dissolved solids (TDS), and salinity were collected in situ by YSI 30 meter. To evaluate nutrient (nitrate and phosphorus) concentrations water samples were analyzed at UWC laboratory using spectrophotometer. In addition human activities, basic conditions (7.13 to 8.76), high total dissolved solids (416 to to 916.5 mg L¯¹) and salinity (0.31 to 0.71 mg L¯¹) concentrations were influenced by Malmesbury shales. Nitrate (0.1 to 3.1 mg L¯¹) and phosphorus (0.11 to 5.27 mg L¯¹) concentrations and the decrease in dissolved oxygen in November 2012 showed eutrophic conditions of the river. In the tributary site phosphorus (1.32 to 3.62 mg L¯¹) concentrations revealed hypertrophic condition compared to South Africa guideline. Macroinvertebrates sampled showed a total of 28 taxa grouped in 11 orders were sampled. Poor habitat diversity and water quality degradation were principal causes of low species diversity. The South Africa Score System version 5 (SASS5) and Average Score per Taxon (ASPT) indicated that the river is seriously impacted in 2012 compared to 2005 where water quality was in poor condition. The SASS and the ASPT scores were less than 50 and 4.2 at all sampling sites in most part of sampling period.