Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity. Geostatistical methods, especially kriging, are widely used in ecology. Bird counts data often fail to show normal distribution over an area which is required for most of the kriging methods. Hence choosing an interpolation method without understanding the implications may lead to bias results. United Kingdom’s Exprodat Consulting Ltd had set an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) workflow for optimising interpolation of petroleum dataset. This workflow was applied in this study to predict capercaillie bird species over whole Sweden. There was no trend found in the dataset. Also the dataset was not spatially auto-correlated. A completely regularized spline surface model was created with RMSE 1.336. Medium to high occurrences (8-16) were found over two very small areas, within Västerbottens county and Västra Götlands county. Low occurrences (1-3) were found all over Sweden. Urban areas like Stockholm city and Malmö city had low occurrences. Another kriging prediction surface was created with RMSE 1.314 to compare the results. There were no prediction values from 5 to 16 in kriging surface. In-depth studies were carried out by selecting three areas. The studies showed that the results of local kriging surfaces did not match with the results of global surface. Uncertainty in GIS may exist at any level. Having low RMSE value does not always mean a good result. Hence ESDA before choosing interpolation method is an effective way. And a post result field investigation could make it more valid. Regression analysis is also widely used in ecology and there are certain different methods that are available to be used. Ordinary Least Squares is the first method that was tested upon bird counts data set. Adjusted R-squared value was 0.008616 which indicated that explanatory variables pine, spruce, roads, urban areas and wetlands were just contributing to 0.8% to the dependent variable bird counts. It was also found that there was no linear relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. Logistic regression was the next step as it had the capability to work with nonlinear data also. The Spatial Data Modeller (SDM) tool was used to perform logistic regression in ArcGIS 9.3. Initially results of logistic regression were unexpected, hence focal statistics was performed upon all the independent variables. Logistic regression with these new independent variables generated meaningful results. This time the probability of occurrence of birds had weak positive relationship with all the independent variables. Coefficients of pine, spruce, roads, urban areas and wetlands were found to be 0.39, 0.23, 0.13, 0.24 and 0.14 respectively. Pine and spruce are natural attractors for birds, hence results were quite acceptable. But the overall model performance remained poor. Positive coefficient for roads, urban areas and wetlands may well be due to redundancy in these datasets or observer bias in bird species reporting. IDRISI Andes also came up with almost the same results when logistic regression with same dependent and independent variables was performed. IDRISI Andes output contained the pseudo R-square value, found to be 0.0416. This was an indication of biasness in the dataset also. The results of in-depth studies by selecting three areas also showed that LR with focal statistics were having better results than LR without focal statistics, but the overall performance remained poor. The SDM tool is a good choice for performing logistic regression on small scale datasets due to its limitation. Comparison of results between the two geostatistical methods, interpolation and regression depicts the similarity at discrete places; an unbiased dataset might have resulted in a better comparison of two methods.

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Les invasions biologiques, deuxième cause de perte de biodiversité à l’échelle mondiale, représentent un risque majeur auquel nos sociétés doivent faire face. On parle d’invasion biologique lorsque des activités humaines permettent à une espèce de franchir des barrières qui jusqu’alors limitaient sa dispersion ou sa multiplication, entrainant une explosion géographique et démographique de l’espèce dans un nouvel écosystème et s’accompagnant éventuellement d’impacts économiques, sociétaux ou écologiques. La façon la plus efficace et la moins coûteuse de limiter les impacts causés par les espèces envahissante et de les prévoir en amont afin de mettre en place des mesures de prévention ciblées et efficaces et d’essayer de les éviter.L’objectif de cette thèse est de démontrer qu’il est possible d’améliorer la prédiction des invasions biologiques en développant et combinant différentes approches de modélisation de façon innovante. Les questions posées sont de savoir s’il est possible de prévoir quelles pourraient-être ces espèces, où elles pourraient devenir envahissantes et quels impacts elles pourraient avoir. Toutes les méthodes développées dans cette thèse ont été appliquées à des hyménoptères sociaux ; nombreuses espèces de fourmis (famille des Formicidés) ou frelon asiatique (famille des Vespidés, vespa Velutina nigrithorax), mais elles sont généralisables et réutilisables pour tout autre taxa.Je montre dans cette thèse qu’il est possible de développer un outil statistique de détection des espèces risquant de devenir envahissantes. J’applique cet outil aux fourmis, je fournis une liste de 15 espèces de fourmis risquant de devenir envahissantes à travers le monde et je cartographie les zones du globe risquant d’être envahies par ces espèces. Chacun des continents est menacée par au moins une de ces invasions potentielles. Dans un deuxième temps, je mets au point d’un cadre méthodologique permettant d’améliorer les prédictions d’aires de distribution des espèces en combinant leurs exigences climatiques et d’habitat, tout en respectant l’échelle géographique à laquelle ces facteurs agissent sur la distribution des espèces. J’applique cette méthode au frelon asiatique, ce qui me permet d’identifier les habitats qui lui sont les plus favorables et d’utiliser ces informations pour raffiner la prédiction de son aire favorable. En combinant le climat et l’habitat, je prédis une aire potentielle de distribution 56% plus restreinte par rapport aux estimations basées sur le climat uniquement. Enfin, dans un troisième temps, je m’intéresse au développement d’une méthode permettant de prédire spatialement les impacts causés par une invasion biologique. Pour ce faire, je prédis d’abord l’abondance potentielle du frelon asiatique en France. Je couple ensuite cette prédiction avec des données de présence de ruches et un modèle présidant l’impact du frelon asiatique sur la survie des colonies d’abeilles. J’estime enfin que cette invasion peut conduire à l’effondrement de 41% des colonies d’abeilles domestiques en France.Cette thèse met en lumière l’utilité d’intégrer la modélisation dans la construction du savoir autour des invasions biologiques, approche relativement nouvelle dans ce champ disciplinaire. De plus, elle illustre comment la modélisation et l’élaboration de prédictions peuvent aider à objectiver la prise de décision concernant la gestion des espèces envahissantes et optimiser leur efficacité en ciblant les habitats, les régions et les espèces d’action prioritaires. / Biologicals invasions, the second cause of biodiversity loss worldwide, represent a major threat that our societies have to face. Invasive species correspond to species that, due to human activities, cross geographic and reproduction barriers and expand into new areas in large numbers. This spread into new ecosystems may have severe socio-economic or ecological impacts. The most efficient way to limit these impacts is to predict and avoid biological invasions before they occur by setting up appropriate management plans.The aim of this PhD thesis is to demonstrate that existing predictive models can be further developed and combined together to improve biological invasion predictions. All of the methods developed in this thesis have been applied to social Hymenoptera: ant species (Formicidae) and the Asian hornet (Vespa velutina nigrithorax), but they are generalizable to any other taxa. The questions asked are: can we predict future invader species? Can we improve the spatial predictions of their distribution? Can we predict invasive species impact?First, I show in this thesis that it is possible to develop a model that detects future invasive species, even before they have had the chance to be moved outside their native range. I apply this screening tool to more than 2000 ant species, provide a list of the 15 ant species that are highly likely to become invasive and map their global suitability to highlights the area the most at risk from these invasions. All continents are threatened by at least one of these potential invasions. Second, I set up a methodological framework to improve species distribution predictions by combining multi-scale drivers. I apply this method to the invasive Asian hornet, identify its high affinity habitats, and use this information to refine suitability maps. I show that integrating multiple drivers, while still respecting their scale of effect, produced a potential range 55.9% smaller than that predicted using a climatic model alone. Finally, I propose a method to predict invasive species impacts in a spatially explicit way and I apply it to the estimate the Asian hornet’s impact on honeybee colonies in France. To do so, I estimate the Asian hornet nest density across France and combine it with an agent-based hive model to estimate honeybee mortality risk. I show that up to 41% of the honeybee colonies are likely to collapse due to the Asian hornet.Overall, these studies demonstrate how modelling techniques can provide valuable inputs to improve invasive species management decision by offering tools to optimize prevention strategies and target areas, species or habitats where action is needed in priority. Biological invasions involve our scientific, political and cultural perceptions in an intricate way; this PhD thesis highlights the usefulness of bringing together modelling techniques and the rest of biological invasion knowledge to better grasp invasion science complexity.

En hög grad av motivation och kunskapsutveckling har setts som nära sammankopplat med en god prestationsförmåga i arbetslivet. En del av variationen av motivation har visat sig kunna förklaras genom personlighet och idag används personlighetstester frekvent i rekryteringsprocessen. Syftet med studien var därför att undersöka om personlighetsegenskaper enligt femfaktorteorin kunde predicera intern respektive extern arbetsmotivation. Hypotesen var att olika personlighetsegenskaper kunde predicera intern respektive extern arbetsmotivation. Studien använde sig av mätverktyget Work Extrinsic and Intrinsic Motivation Scale (WEIMS) för att undersöka intern (W-SDM) respektive extern (W-NSDM) arbetsmotivation. Personlighetsegenskaper undersöktes med Ten Items Personality Inventory (TIPI) som grundade sig i femfaktorteorin med fem personlighetsegenskaper. Multipel regressionsanalys visade att personlighetsegenskaper som neuroticism och extraversion signifikant kunde predicera arbetsmotivation. En hög grad av egenskapen neuroticism kunde predicera både en hög intern och extern nivå av arbetsmotivation, medan högre nivåer av extraversion kunde predicera en hög nivå av extern arbetsmotivation. Sammanfattningsvis kan det sägas att graden av personlighetsegenskaper som neuroticism och extraversion kan predicera nivån av intern och extern arbetsmotivation. / A high degree of motivation has been closely linked to good performance in work organizations. Some of the variation in motivation has been shown to be explained by personality, and today personality tests are frequently used in recruitment processes. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate whether different personality traits, based on the five-factor model, could predict internal and external work motivation. The hypothesis was that different personality traits could predict internal and external work motivation. In this study, the Work Extrinsic and Intrinsic Motivation Scale (WEIMS) was used to examine internal (W-SDM) and external (W-NSDM) work motivation. Personality traits were examined with Ten Items Personality Inventory (TIPI), which was based on the Big five with five personality traits. Multiple regression analysis showed that a high degree of neuroticism could predict both a high internal and external level of work motivation, while higher levels of extraversion could predict a high level of external work motivation. In summary, the degree of personality traits such as neuroticism and extraversion can predict the level of internal and external work motivation.

The dawn of democracy and adoption of the new constitution heralded in a new political dispensation for South Africa. These development set local government in a new path as various pieces of legislations and policies were passed to transform local government from fragmented and racially – based municipalities into democratic and non – racial entities. Transformation did not end on amalgamation of racial municipal entities and change to racial composition of the administration staff but has to transcend beyond to ensure accountability, transparency, responsive and participation of communities in the affairs of local government to promote good governance. The Sedibeng District Municipality (SDM) established various structures, systems and processes intend on promoting transformation. However, its process of transformation is limited only to the structure and composition of the administration. Little was done to transform the reigning culture which has its roots in the apartheid past, despite the existence of policies including the White Paper on the Transforming Public Service Delivery (Batho Pele). Accordingly, the existence of new structures, systems and processes failed to curb corruption in the ranks of Sedibeng District Municipality. Currently, a number of staff members are facing various charges of fraud and corruption. The Auditor – General have found that millions of rands have spent without proper procedure being followed. The state of affairs give indications that existing structures, systems and processes are not solid enough to curb corruption. Furthermore, the situation is accentuated by the municipality’s failure to involve communities in the affairs of the local government. Communities are only used to rubber – stamp processes and programmes that are imposed by the municipality. This renders communities and community organisations useless and ineffective in holding the councillors accountable. Against the background of the problem statement, the hypotheses of the study were formulated as follows: * There is a non – compliance of municipal regulations required for transformation and good governance at Sedibeng District Municipality. * The leadership of the municipality does not possess adequate knowledge and the political will to monitor and ensure consistent adherence to regulations as required by law to promote transformation and good governance. The study utilized both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The study involved a number of techniques to gather information which includes literature study and empirical research. The findings of the study prove that there is a high level non – compliance of municipal regulations required to promote good governance at Sedibeng District Municipality. The responses of senior management also prove that there is a clear lack of leadership in the Sedibeng District Municipality. The study offers significant recommendations to improve the situation. The intend of the study was to explore and open avenue for further research in the field of change management (transformation of behaviour and culture), impact of cadre deployment in municipal performance and idea of public participation and involvement in the affairs of local government. / M Development and Management (Public Management and Governance), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2014

According to recent surveys on the use of systems development methodologies, many organizations claim that they are adapting systems development methodologies (Hardy et al. 1995; Russo et al. 1996; Fitzgerald, 1998). The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the adaptation of systems development methodologies in South Africa. This problem was investigated by addressing the following research questions: • What are the perceptions of system developers regarding systems development methodologies? • Why do system developers adapt system development methodologies? • How do they adapt the methodologies? • Is there a difference in the quality of the systems which are developed with these adapted systems development methodologies opposed to those systems which are developed according to a specific formalised methodology? In this dissertation, interpretive case studies have been used to add to the researcher's knowledge concerning how and why systems development methodologies in South Africa are adapted. Qualitative interviewing was used as a data collection method. All interviews were recorded and transcribed. The next step was to analyse the transcribed data. In this study, content analysis with cross-case analysis was used. The findings obtained were confirmed by making use of triangulation and member checking. The results indicated that although the use of systems development methodologies is mandatory in organizations, it is not enforced by senior employees. Organizations use multiple systems development methodologies. Systems development methodologies are adapted due to several reasons, i.e. financial gains that is obtained, the lack of knowledge, time limitations, the fact that methodologies are not universally applicable, etc. Systems development methodologies are statically and dynamically adapted by adding and removing steps. The combination of methodologies and switching between methodologies also occur. The results indicate that developers realize that formal systems development methodologies produce systems of a higher quality. However, because it is so time-consuming, they are prepared to accept a lower quality system in order to gain a faster delivery time. / Thesis (M.Sc. (Computer Science))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2007.

Thesis (M.Sc. (Computer Science))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2007.

Climate change will pose increasing challenges to forest managers working to achieve sustainable forest management in the boreal forest. A logical starting point for climate change adaptation is to proactively identify management practices and policies that have a higher likelihood of achieving management objectives across a wide range of potential climate futures. This research implemented an approach to identifying such measures by tapping into the experiential knowledge base of local forest practitioners. The assessment was organized according to a structured decision-making (SDM) approach. Northern forest practitioners consider the goals of climate change adaptation to be synonymous with those of sustainable forest management indicating that the criteria for the conservation and sustainable management of boreal forests as defined by the Montréal Process are suitable objectives against which the performance of alternative adaptation options can be assessed. The case study area for this research was the Champagne and Aishihik Traditional Territory of southwest Yukon where a climatically-driven, large-scale spruce bark beetle disturbance has been driving forest management planning yet climate change considerations have not been directly addressed in the planning process. Twenty-four adaptation options were identified as being important to implement in forest development areas to achieve regional goals and objectives of forest management across three scenarios of climate change. In addition, the performance of alternative strategies to re-establish forests was assessed. Results indicate that the applicability of alternative forest renewal adaptation strategies is strongly related to the objectives of forest management which differed across the forest management planning area. However, since none of the strategies were judged to perform highly across any of the scenarios of climate change, additional work is needed to explore whether a threshold of acceptability can be met even with the adoption of adjustments to forest management policies and practices. If not, management objectives themselves may need to be revised. An extensive list of research and monitoring needs were also identified, an indication that climate change is providing the imperative for a more comprehensive research and monitoring program to support the sustainable management of forest resources in this region. The next steps in a SDM approach are to implement adaptation options and strategies deemed appropriate and to monitor their performance in achieving management objectives within an adaptive management context.

The dawn of democracy and adoption of the new constitution heralded in a new political dispensation for South Africa. These development set local government in a new path as various pieces of legislations and policies were passed to transform local government from fragmented and racially – based municipalities into democratic and non – racial entities. Transformation did not end on amalgamation of racial municipal entities and change to racial composition of the administration staff but has to transcend beyond to ensure accountability, transparency, responsive and participation of communities in the affairs of local government to promote good governance. The Sedibeng District Municipality (SDM) established various structures, systems and processes intend on promoting transformation. However, its process of transformation is limited only to the structure and composition of the administration. Little was done to transform the reigning culture which has its roots in the apartheid past, despite the existence of policies including the White Paper on the Transforming Public Service Delivery (Batho Pele). Accordingly, the existence of new structures, systems and processes failed to curb corruption in the ranks of Sedibeng District Municipality. Currently, a number of staff members are facing various charges of fraud and corruption. The Auditor – General have found that millions of rands have spent without proper procedure being followed. The state of affairs give indications that existing structures, systems and processes are not solid enough to curb corruption. Furthermore, the situation is accentuated by the municipality’s failure to involve communities in the affairs of the local government. Communities are only used to rubber – stamp processes and programmes that are imposed by the municipality. This renders communities and community organisations useless and ineffective in holding the councillors accountable. Against the background of the problem statement, the hypotheses of the study were formulated as follows: * There is a non – compliance of municipal regulations required for transformation and good governance at Sedibeng District Municipality. * The leadership of the municipality does not possess adequate knowledge and the political will to monitor and ensure consistent adherence to regulations as required by law to promote transformation and good governance. The study utilized both qualitative and quantitative research methods. The study involved a number of techniques to gather information which includes literature study and empirical research. The findings of the study prove that there is a high level non – compliance of municipal regulations required to promote good governance at Sedibeng District Municipality. The responses of senior management also prove that there is a clear lack of leadership in the Sedibeng District Municipality. The study offers significant recommendations to improve the situation. The intend of the study was to explore and open avenue for further research in the field of change management (transformation of behaviour and culture), impact of cadre deployment in municipal performance and idea of public participation and involvement in the affairs of local government. / M Development and Management (Public Management and Governance), North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2014

According to recent surveys on the use of systems development methodologies, many organizations claim that they are adapting systems development methodologies (Hardy et al. 1995; Russo et al. 1996; Fitzgerald, 1998). The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the adaptation of systems development methodologies in South Africa. This problem was investigated by addressing the following research questions: • What are the perceptions of system developers regarding systems development methodologies? • Why do system developers adapt system development methodologies? • How do they adapt the methodologies? • Is there a difference in the quality of the systems which are developed with these adapted systems development methodologies opposed to those systems which are developed according to a specific formalised methodology? In this dissertation, interpretive case studies have been used to add to the researcher's knowledge concerning how and why systems development methodologies in South Africa are adapted. Qualitative interviewing was used as a data collection method. All interviews were recorded and transcribed. The next step was to analyse the transcribed data. In this study, content analysis with cross-case analysis was used. The findings obtained were confirmed by making use of triangulation and member checking. The results indicated that although the use of systems development methodologies is mandatory in organizations, it is not enforced by senior employees. Organizations use multiple systems development methodologies. Systems development methodologies are adapted due to several reasons, i.e. financial gains that is obtained, the lack of knowledge, time limitations, the fact that methodologies are not universally applicable, etc. Systems development methodologies are statically and dynamically adapted by adding and removing steps. The combination of methodologies and switching between methodologies also occur. The results indicate that developers realize that formal systems development methodologies produce systems of a higher quality. However, because it is so time-consuming, they are prepared to accept a lower quality system in order to gain a faster delivery time. / Thesis (M.Sc. (Computer Science))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2007.