This study examines three applications of control charts used for monitoring syndromic data with different characteristics. The first part develops a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) based surveillance chart, and compares it with the CDC Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) W2c method using both authentic and simulated data. After successfully removing the long-term trend and the seasonality involved in syndromic data, the performance of the SARIMA approach is shown to be better than the performance of the EARS method in terms of two key surveillance characteristics, the false alarm rate and the average time to detect the outbreaks. In the second part, we propose a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) control chart to detect a wide range of shifts in the mean of Poisson distributed biosurveillance data. The application of a sign function on the original GLR chart statistics leads to downward-sided, upward-sided, and two-sided GLR chart statistics in an unified framework. To facilitate the use of such charts in practice, we provide detailed guidance on developing and implementing the GLR chart. Under the steady-state framework, this study indicates that the overall GLR chart performance in detecting a range of shifts of interest is superior to the performance of traditional control charts including the EARS method, Shewhart charts, EWMA charts, and CUSUM charts. There is often an excessive number of zeros involved in health care related data. Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) models are more appropriate than Poisson models to describe such data. The last part of the dissertation considers the GLR chart for ZIP data under a research framework similar to the second part. Because small sample sizes may influence the estimation of ZIP parameters, the efficiency of MLEs is investigated in depth, followed by suggestions for improvement. Numerical approaches to solving for the MLEs are discussed as well. Statistics for a set of GLR charts are derived, followed by modifications changing them from two-sided statistics to one-sided statistics. Although not a complete study of GLR charts for ZIP processes, due to limited time and resources, suggestions for future work are proposed at the end of this dissertation. / Ph. D.

Little is known about the tick populations found within the central Appalachian/southwestern region of Virginia. The main focus of this research was to better assess local tick communities in the central Appalachian-Southwestern region of Virginia, which was addressed by determining species diversity, habitat associations, seasonal phenology, pathogen prevalence, and ecological factors that influences tick presence and abundance. A field study was conducted from June 2019 - November 2020 across 8 counties and 3 habitat types. Forested habitats exhibited greater tick species diversity than pasture and urban habitats. Each tick species was observed to be associated with particular habitats. The presence of B. burgdorferi sensu stricto (causative agent of Lyme disease), the human variant of A. phagocytophilum (causative agent of human granulocytic anaplasmosis), and Powassan virus (the causative agent of Powassan encephalitis) were detected in collected field specimens, suggesting a significant threat to public health. The detection of Powassan virus RNA in local Ixodes scapularis ticks is the first evidence of this viral pathogen within the region. The overwintering abilities of ticks, whose populations are expanding or becoming more invasive, including Haemaphysalis longicornis, Amblyomma americanum, and Amblyomma maculatum, were examined through a combination of laboratory and field experiments. Amblyomma americanum and H. longicornis nymphal ticks had a lower supercooling temperature than adult ticks, suggesting their potential to overwinter better; A. maculatum nymphs had similar average supercooling temperatures as the other two species at nymphal stage. Via a field experiment, A. americanum, H. longicornis, and A. maculatum were subjected to natural elements of a Virginian winter in a two-factor design investigating elevation and potential insulation coverage. Elevation and insulation coverage were found to have no significant impact on the overwintering survival of H. longicornis and A. americanum. However, the life-stage of the tick was determined to be a significant factor that dictated the survival of ticks of these species. Overwintering survival of Amblyomma maculatum nymphs was influenced by insulation (proxied by leaf litter); which may be attributed to this tick's preference of drier climate. Low overwintering survival suggests that a tick may not be able to establish a permanent population within the area. / Master of Science in Life Sciences / Ticks can transmit many pathogens, bacteria or viruses that cause disease, to both humans and animals. Diseases associated with ticks can include Lyme disease, Human Anaplasmosis, Ehrlichiosis, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, as well as viral illnesses. The pathogens that cause these diseases are vectored by specific tick species. Currently, there are no published reports of tick species present within the central Appalachian/southwestern region of Virginia. A study to determine local tick populations presence and the factors influencing their maintenance in the environment was conducted. Additionally, field collected specimens were screened to assess pathogen prevalence within the region. I confirm the presence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (causative agent for Lyme disease), Anaplasma phagocytophilum (causative agent for Human Granulocytic Anaplasmosis), and Powassan virus within Ixodes scapularis, commonly referred to as black-legged ticks. Habitat (forest, urban, pasture) was a significant influencing factor on the presence of I. scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, and Haemaphysalis longicornis (e.g., the latter species was predominantly found in pasture habitats). Secondly, I investigated how well three sympatric tick species would overwinter within the region. Survival of a tick is heavily dependent upon their ability to withstand desiccation, obtain a blood meal from a host, mate, and reproduce. Certain ticks may be limited to certain regions based on elevation, temperature, and relative humidity. I investigated the influence of elevation and insulation coverage (presence of leaves vs. no leaves) on A. americanum (Lone star tick), H. longicornis (Asian longhorned tick), and A. maculatum (Gulf Coast tick). Elevation and insulation coverage had no significant impact on the overwintering survival of the Lone star and Asian longhorned ticks. Tick survival was mainly dictated by what life-stage they were in; Lone star ticks survived better as adult than at other life stages. Asian longhorned ticks survived better as nymphs than larva and adults. Insulation coverage influenced the overwintering survival of the Gulf Coast tick. These ticks survived better with no leaves, which may be associated with their preference of drier climates.

The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is an invasive insect from Asia that has recently become a major pest of agricultural crops and a nuisance to home and business owners in the Mid-Atlantic U.S. Since 2010, H. halys has been reported in many vineyards in Virginia, but the pest significance in this crop is unknown. Sampling was conducted in four commercial vineyards across Virginia in 2012 and 2013 to study the seasonal phenology and pest status of H. halys in vineyards. Adults moved into vineyards as early as May and laid eggs usually on the undersurface of leaves, but occasionally on the berry or the rachis. Grapevines were an early season reproductive host for H. halys. A vineyard adjacent to a sub-urban area with homes and buildings in proximity had an early season peak of H. halys as compared to vineyards adjacent to woods. However, populations declined sharply in late season due to the possible movement of bugs to more preferable host plants such as soybean and corn. In contrast, H. halys was recorded throughout the grape growing period in a vineyard that was surrounded by forests. Significantly more H. halys were recorded from border than interior section of vineyards. A degree-day model suggested that there were enough degree-days to complete a generation of H. halys in Virginia vineyards. H. halys caused direct injury to the grape berries at veraison and pre-harvest berries. Injury expression in the veraison berry can be described as an appearance of a small necrotic spot at the site of the stylets insertion. The spot gradually increased in size and the berries became deformed. H. halys is an economic pest of raspberry, causing direct injury to the berries. Sampling of stink bugs in raspberry plantings in southwestern Virginia showed that the Euschistus species were the most abundant stink bugs in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2012. However, H. halys became the most abundant in 2013. / Master of Science in Life Sciences

Yes / Cattle (Bos taurus) are biologically able to breed year-round, potentially giving farmers the freedom to choose a calving strategy to best meet their economic goals. Thus, an accurate method to determine cattle birth seasonality from archaeological remains would prove to be a valuable tool when investigating a prehistoric farming community. This paper presents the results of intra-tooth isotope ratio analysis (δ18O, δ13C) of first, second and third molars from 15 cattle. The principal outcome is a possible new approach to determining cattle birth seasonality utilizing both carbon and oxygen isotope ratio measurements of first molar enamel. Although this technique requires verification through more extensive testing, particularly of modern material, initial results suggest that it may produce more accurate predictions of birth seasonality than techniques based on intra-tooth δ18O measurements of second and third molars.

Yes / The identification of dairying is essential if we are to understand economies of the past, particularly in northwest Europe, where a high degree of lactose tolerance suggests that fresh milk has long been a significant food product. This paper explores a possible link between economic focus and seasonality of calving. Although cattle (Bos taurus) can breed throughout the year, animals living in temperate regions with minimal or no human management tend to breed seasonally, their breeding behaviour being strongly influenced by the availability of food. In order to achieve a year-round supply of fresh milk in the past, it is likely that multiple-season calving was necessary, which would have required additional husbandry effort. Alternatively, for meat-focussed economies or those based on storable dairy products, a strategy of single-season calving in spring may have been favoured to maximise the utilization of spring and summer vegetation. Cattle birth seasonality is investigated through isotope ratio analysis (δ18O, δ13C) of tooth enamel. Results for cattle from Pool, Orkney dating to the latter part of the first millennium A.D suggest that calving occurred during at least three seasons implying that the continuous provision of fresh milk was of economic importance. / AHRC Studentship

<p>The purpose of this paper is to examine the correlation between hotels, their brands and the frontline staff within the industry. A competitive, international environment characterizes today´s hotel industry where brands are one of the strongest sources for a successful position amongst competitors. In the brand delivery, the front line staff is of utmost importance since they in many ways incorporate the brand values and the projected identity of the hotel. Hotels can use a variety of ways to communicate the brands identity to the front line staff in order to create the desired brand behavior, some more effective than others. At the same time the Swedish hotel industry, as many other, is characterized by a high percentage of staff turnovers. This is caused by the fact that part time or seasonal front line employees staff much of the hotels. This creates a possible tension since those delivering the service often are staff with limited brand awareness while at the same time the hotels are dependent of a constant brand delivery to create a sustainable brand image.</p><p>The study has been made through a qualitative approach and as a case study of a representative part of the Swedish hotel industry. We have conducted 7 interviews with various people, all working in management at different hotels. Research findings show that while there is an understanding of the front line staffs part in brand communication, the implementation phase is troublesome. In order for the staff to communicate the hotel brand true to the hotels proposed brand identity there is a need for a symbiotic relationship between the hotels management and the front line staff. A model for this relationship is therefore proposed by us.</p>

Les variations multidécennales et saisonnières de la Mousson Ouest-Africaine (MOA) au cours des deux derniers millénaires dans la région sahélienne sont peu documentées en raison du manque d'archives paléoclimatiques. Pour cela, on se propose dans ce travail de thèse d'explorer une nouvelle archive paléoclimatique basée sur l'étude sclérochronologique des coquilles du mollusque bivalve Anadara senilis dans des amas coquilliers fossiles afin de reconstituer les variations hydrologiques multidécennales et saisonnières dans le Delta du Saloum au Sénégal de 460 à 1090 A.D. L'hydrologie de cet estuaire hypersalin est très sensible aux variations de la MOA. Les variations hydrologiques passées sont reconstituées à travers des analyses isotopiques (δ18O, δ13C) des coquilles modernes et des coquilles fossiles dans le delta. Le signal isotopique saisonnier de ces coquilles retrace fidèlement les variations hydrologiques liées au régime de la mousson. Nos résultats montrent que ces variations isotopiques, associées aux stries de croissance dont la périodicité est connue, permettent de reconstituer les durées des saisons avec une précision de 25 jours, une précision jamais atteinte dans les études paléoclimatiques antérieures dans la région sahélienne. Les variations hydrologiques multidécennales sont reconstituées à travers la composition isotopique des coquilles fossiles prélevées dans un amas coquillier massif (Dioron Boumak) dont le taux d'accumulation est très important. Les coquilles fossiles prélevées dans cet amas présentent des valeurs isotopiques moyennes en δ18O plus négatives de 1.4 ‰ par rapport à leurs analogues modernes. Ceci est une indication que les conditions hydrologiques étaient plus douces qu'aujourd'hui dans le Saloum qui n'était pas hypersalin à cette époque. Le bilan Précipitation-Evaporation était par conséquent plus positif en réponse à des pluies plus intenses et/ou plus étalées dans le temps de 460 à 1090 A.D. Il semblerait que les pluies hivernales et printanières, caractéristiques de la frange littorale sénégalo-mauritanienne, plutôt rares et insignifiantes de nos jours se produisaient plus fréquemment pendant cette période. La jonction entre ces pluies et les pluies de mousson aurait favorisé l'établissement de saisons des pluies beaucoup plus longues (~5 mois environ au lieu de 3 aujourd'hui) et une augmentation du bilan Précipitation-Evaporation. Cette étude met en lumière le potentiel considérable d'A. senilis comme archive paléoclimatique à haute résolution de la variabilité des précipitation dans la région sénégalaise. Elle montre également l'importance de la saisonnalité des précipitations dans les cycles hydrologiques passés dans cette région qui doit être prise en compte dans les études paléoclimatiques futures. / The multidecadal and seasonal variations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) in the last two millennia remain poorly documented in the Sahel region because paleoclimate archives are lacking. For this, we propose in this PhD thesis a sclerochronological study of the mollusk bivalve Anadara senilis from massive shell middens to reconstruct multidecadal and seasonal variations of hydrological conditions in the Saloum Delta (Senegal) between AD 460 and 1090. Hydrological conditions in this hypersaline estuary are highly sensitive to the WAM variations.Past hydrological variations are reconstructed by using isotopic composition (δ18O, δ13C) of modern and fossil shells in this Delta. The shells' seasonal isotopic signals reflect faithfully hydrological variations, linked to monsoonal regime. Our results show that the variations of these seasonal isotopic signals, associated to shell growth patterns with known periodicities allow the reconstruction of season durations with a precision of 25 days, a precision that has never been achieved in paleoclimate studies in the Sahel region.Multidecadal variations of hydrological conditions are reconstructed by using isotopic composition of fossil shells collected in the massive shell middens (Dioron Boumak), characterized by high accumulation rate. The averaged δ18O value of fossil shells was more negative by 1.4‰ compared to modern shells' isotopic signature. This result indicates fresher mean conditions in the Saloum Delta that was likely not hypersaline as it is today. The precipitation-evaporation budget was thus more positive in response to a more intense and/or longer rainfall season during from AD 460 to 1090. We propose that winter and early spring rainfall events, which are observed very occasionally today, were occurring frequently during this period. These rains restricted to the western Sahelian coast and followed by the monsoon would have increased the total duration of the rainy season (~ 5 months instead of 3 months today) and substantially increased the annual precipitation-evaporation budget.This study shed light on the high potential of A. senilis as a high resolution paleoclimate archive of rainfall variability in the Sahel region. It shows also the importance of rainfall seasonality in past hydrological cycles that should be taken into account in the future paleoclimate studies.

State space modeling represents a statistical framework for exponential smoo- thing methods and it is often used in time series modeling. This thesis descri- bes seasonal innovations state space models and focuses on recently suggested TBATS model. This model includes Box-Cox transformation, ARMA model for residuals and trigonometric representation of seasonality and it was designed to handle a broad spectrum of time series with complex types of seasonality inclu- ding multiple seasonality, high frequency of data, non-integer periods of seasonal components, and dual-calendar effects. The estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood and trigonometric representation of seasonality greatly reduce computational burden in this model. The universatility of TBATS model is demonstrated by four real data time series.

This master thesis deals with succession and succession mechanisms of beetles (Coleoptera) on carrions of small vertebrates. As a model sample of small carrion a small mouse of weight 20 grams was chosen. In 2014 two experiments occurred. The first one studied the succession of a beetle community in dependence on seasonality and time of death of the sample. The second experiment was aimed to survey the blocking effect of an early insect succession on the final beetle community composition on carrions. It turned out, that during decomposition of the carrion the overall amount of beetles raised equally to the guild of necrophagous beetles. Change of the species spectrum during succession was not statistically confirmed. On the other hand, the effect of seasonality was clear as during the season the abundance and the amount of species increased. The proportion of trophic guilds changed significantly, necrophagous beetles were the most dominant part of the community towards the end of the season. Equally, the taxonomic composition of the community also changed during the season. The seasonal dynamics of carrion beetles was clear; Nicrophorus vespillo (Linnaeus, 1758) and N. investigator Zetterstedt, 1824 showed their peaks in spring and summer while N. humator (Gleditsch, 1767) and N. vespilloides...

L’étude de la composition isotopique de l’oxygène de l’émail des dents de vertébrésconstitue une méthode fiable de reconstitution des paléotempératures, grâce àl’interdépendance entre le δ18O de l’apatite des dents, le δ18O des fluides corporels, del’eau ingérée et la température du milieu. L’amélioration et la miniaturisation des techniquesanalytiques a permis d’augmenter la résolution du signal reconstitué, depuis les variations detempérature sur de grandes échelles de temps jusqu’aux variations saisonnières durant laformation de la dent. Cependant, ces variations du δ18O de la dent ne sont pas uniquementdépendantes des variations de température du milieu, mais peuvent également êtreaffectées par d’autres paramètres climatiques, comme la répartition des précipitations aucours de l’année, ou biologique, comme le mode de minéralisation de la dent, l’alimentation,la physiologie de l’animal ou des migrations.Les paramètres biologiques peuvent être estimés dans le cas de taxons possédantdes parents proches dans la faune actuelle. Par exemple, la connaissance des processus deformation et de minéralisation des dents de bovinés actuels permet d’interpréter le signalisotopique de l’oxygène enregistré dans les dents de bovinés fossiles. Ainsi, l’analyse dedents de Bison priscus provenant de l’aven de Coudoulous (Lot, France) a permis dereconstituer les variations saisonnières de température au cours de l’avant-dernier épisodeglaciaire (MIS 6) au Pléistocène moyen, lorsque la région servait de terrain de chasse àHomo neanderthalensis. Le climat était à cette époque plus froid de 4°C en moyenne, maisavec des saisons nettement plus contrastées. Ainsi, si les températures estivales étaientidentiques aux valeurs actuelles, les températures hivernales étaient plus basses de 6-7°C.En milieu marin, les variations saisonnières de température affectent uniquement leseaux de surface. Les plaques dentaires de myliobatidés, un groupe de raies pélagiquesvivant principalement entre 0 et 100 mètres de profondeur, sont un outil potentiel pourreconstituer la paléosaisonnalité. L’étude de plaques dentaires de Myliobatis et deRhinoptera actuels montre que la composition isotopique des dents de ces animauxenregistre des variations de température et de δ18O des eaux de surface. Ainsi, il est doncpossible de reconstituer les caractéristiques des masses d’eau traversées par l’animal. Cetoutil a également un intérêt paléoécologique car il permet de mettre en évidence d’éventuelscomportements migratoires, comme chez certains myliobatidés actuels. L’étude despécimens d’Aetomylaeus provenant du Pliocène de Montpellier (Hérault, France) montredes températures 5°C plus élevées par rapport aux v aleurs actuelles. / The oxygen isotopic composition of the vertebrate tooth enamel is a reliable proxy toreconstruct paleotemperatures based on the dependence of the δ18O of the tooth apatite onthe δ18O of body fluids, on the δ18O of the drinking water, and on the environmentaltemperature. The improvement and the miniaturization of the analytical procedures allowedincreasing the resolution of the reconstructed signal, from paleotemperature variations overgeological times to seasonal variations during the tooth growth. However seasonal variationsof the enamel δ18O do not only depend on temperature variations but can also be influencedby other climatic parameters such as rainfall distribution over the year, or by biological andecological parameters such as tooth mineralization process, diet, physiology or migratorypatterns.Biological parameters can be estimated based on the study of extant relatives inmodern faunas. For example, data on tooth formation and mineralization processes inmodern bovids allow a better understanding of the oxygen isotopic signal recorded in fossilbovid teeth. Thus reconstruction of seasonal variations of temperature during the penultimateglacial episode (MIS 6) has been made possible from the analysis of Bison priscus teethfrom the aven of Coudoulous (Lot, France). Climate was 4°C colder during the middlePleistocene when Europe was still Homo neanderthalensis hunting ground, and seasonswere more contrasted than today. Summer temperatures were similar to modern values, butwinter temperatures were 6-7°C colder.In marine environments, seasonal variations of temperature only affect surfacewaters. Myliobatids are pelagic rays living mostly between 0 and 100 m depth, thus theoxygen isotopic composition of myliobatid dental plates is a potential proxy to reconstruct thepaleoseasonality. The isotopic analysis of modern Myliobatis and Rhinoptera samplesconfirmed that variations of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater arerecorded in the δ18O of myliobatid teeth. Thus it is possible to reconstruct the variations ofseawater temperature during a part of the animal’s life, but it also allows pointing outmigratory patterns in some myliobatid species. Reconstructions of seasonal variations ofSST during the middle Pliocene in Montpellier (Hérault, France) from the δ18O of myliobatiddental plates yielded paleotemperatures 5°C higher than modern values.