To refine our knowledge and to adequately test hypotheses concerning theoretical and applied aspects of invasion biology, successful and unsuccessful invaders should be compared. This study investigated insect establishment patterns by comparing the climatic preferences and biological attributes of two groups of polyphagous insect species that are constantly intercepted at New Zealand's border. One group of species is established in New Zealand (n = 15), the other group comprised species that are not established (n = 21). In the present study the two groups were considered to represent successful and unsuccessful invaders. To provide background for interpretation of results of the comparative analysis, global areas that are climatically analogous to sites in New Zealand were identified by an eco-climatic assessment model, CLIMEX, to determine possible sources of insect pest invasion. It was found that south east Australia is one of the regions that are climatically very similar to New Zealand. Furthermore, New Zealand shares 90% of its insect pest species with that region. South east Australia has close trade and tourism links with New Zealand and because of its proximity a new incursion in that analogous climate should alert biosecurity authorities in New Zealand. Other regions in western Europe and the east coast of the United States are also climatically similar and share a high proportion of pest species with New Zealand. Principal component analysis was used to investigate patterns in insect global distributions of the two groups of species in relation to climate. Climate variables were reduced to temperature and moisture based principal components defining four climate regions, that were identified in the present study as, warm/dry, warm/wet, cool/dry and cool/moist. Most of the insect species established in New Zealand had a wide distribution in all four climate regions defined by the principal components and their global distributions overlapped into the cool/moist, temperate climate where all the New Zealand sites belong. The insect species that have not established in New Zealand had narrow distributions within the warm/wet, tropical climates. Discriminant analysis was then used to identify which climate variables best discriminate between species presence/absence at a site in relation to climate. The discriminant analysis classified the presence and absence of most insect species significantly better than chance. Late spring and early summer temperatures correctly classified a high proportion of sites where many insect species were present. Soil moisture and winter rainfall were less effective discriminating the presence of the insect species studied here. Biological attributes were compared between the two groups of species. It was found that the species established in New Zealand had a significantly wider host plant range than species that have not established. The lower developmental threshold temperature was on average, 4°C lower for established species compared with non-established species. These data suggest that species that establish well in New Zealand have a wide host range and can tolerate lower temperatures compared with those that have not established. No firm conclusions could be drawn about the importance of propagule pressure, body size, fecundity or phylogeny for successful establishment because data availability constrained sample sizes and the data were highly variable. The predictive capacity of a new tool that has potential for eco-climatic assessment, the artificial neural network (ANN), was compared with other well used models. Using climate variables as predictors, artificial neural network predictions were compared with binary logistic regression and CLIMEX. Using bootstrapping, artificial neural networks predicted insect presence and absence significantly better than the binary logistic regression model. When model prediction success was assessed by the kappa statistic there were also significant differences in prediction performance between the two groups of study insects. For established species, the models were able to provide predictions that were in moderate agreement with the observed data. For non-established species, model predictions were on average only slightly better than chance. The predictions of CLIMEX and artificial neural networks when given novel data, were difficult to compare because both models have different theoretical bases and different climate databases. However, it is clear that both models have potential to give insights into invasive species distributions. Finally the results of the studies in this thesis were drawn together to provide a framework for a prototype pest risk assessment decision support system. Future research is needed to refine the analyses and models that are the components of this system.

本論文主要是探討在二維度空間上二母體分佈是否一致。我們利用排列 (permutation)檢定方法來做比較, 並藉由費雪(Fisher)正確檢定方法的想法而提出重標記 (relabel)排列檢定方法或稱為費雪排列檢定法。 我們透過可交換性的特質證明它是正確 (exact) 的並且比 Syrjala (1996)所建議的排列檢定方法有更高的檢定力 (power)。 本論文另提出二個空間模型: spatial multinomial-relative-log-normal 模型 與 spatial Poisson-relative-log-normal 模型 來配適一般在漁業中常有的右斜長尾次數分佈並包含很多0 的空間資料。另外一般物種可能因天性或自然環境因素像食物、溫度等影響而有群聚行為發生, 這二個模型亦可描述出空間資料的群聚現象以做適當的推論。 / This thesis proposes the relabel (Fisher's) permutation test inspired by Fisher's exact test to compare between distributions of two (fishery) data sets locating on a two-dimensional lattice. We show that the permutation test given by Syrjala (1996} is not exact, but our relabel permutation test is exact and, additionally, more powerful. This thesis also studies two spatial models: the spatial multinomial-relative-log-normal model and the spatial Poisson-relative-log-normal model. Both models not only exhibit characteristics of skewness with a long right-hand tail and of high proportion of zero catches which usually appear in fishery data, but also have the ability to describe various types of aggregative behaviors.

再發事件資料常見於醫學、工業、財經、社會等等領域中，對再發資料分析研究時，我們往往無法確知再發事件發生的時間或是發生次數的分配。因此，本論文探討的是分析再發事件的無母數方法，包括Nelson提出的平均累積函數(mean cumulative function)估計量，及Wang、Chiang與Huang介紹的發生率(occurrence rate)之核函數(kernel function)估計量。 就平均累積函數估計量來說，藉由Nelson導出的變異數及自然(naive)變異數，可分別求得平均累積函數的區間估計。本文利用靴環法(bootstrap)計算出平均累積函數在不同時點的變異數，再與Nelson變異數及自然變異數比較，結果顯示Nelson變異數與靴環法算出的變異數較接近。因此，應依據Nelson變異數建構出事件發生累積次數之漸近信賴區間。 本論文亦介紹了兩個或多個母體的平均累積函數的比較方法，包含固定時點之比較與整條曲線之比較。在固定時點之下，比較方法分別為平均累積函數成對差異之漸近信賴區間及靴環信賴區間、變異數分析比較法，與排列檢定法；而整條曲線比較方法包含：類似 統計量、Lawless-Nadeau檢定。這些方法應用在本論文所採之實證資料時，所得到的檢定結論是一致的。 / Recurrent event data arise in many fields, such as medicine, industry, economics, social sciences and so on. When studying recurrent event data, we usually don’t know the exact joint or marginal distributions of the occurrence times or the number of events over time. So, in this article we talk about some nonparametric methods, such as the mean cumulative function (MCF) discussed by Nelson, and kernel estimation of the rate function introduced by Wang, Chiang and Huang. As to the estimator of MCF, we can compute the confidence interval by Nelson’s variance and naive variance. We use bootstrap method to compare the performance of Nelson variance of the estimated MCF and naive variance of the estimated MCF. The results show that Nelson variance is better than naive variance, so we should construct the confidence limits for the MCF by Nelson’s variance except when only grouped data are available. We also introduce methods for comparing MCFs, including pointwise comparison of MCFs and comparison of entire MCFs. Methods for pointwise comparing MCFs include approximate confidence limits for difference between two MCFs, analysis-of-variance comparison, permutation test, and bootstrap’s confidence limits for difference between two MCFs. Methods for comparing entire MCFs include a statistic like Hoetelling’s , and Lawless-Nadeau test. Finally, all approaches are employed to analyze a real data, and the conclusions concordance with each other.

A polineuropatia inflamatória desmielinizante crônica (PIDC) é uma síndrome caracterizada fundamentalmente pela disfunção do Sistema Nervoso Periférico e que afeta muito a qualidade de vida dos pacientes. O envolvimento da PIDC com o Sistema Nervoso Central tem sido descrito, maiormente como sendo subclínico, porém não há estudos sobre a caracterização deste envolvimento de uma forma ampla e quantitativa. Avaliamos 11 pacientes com PIDC, todos tratados e sem sinais clínicos de alterações centrais, e 11 controles, pareados em gênero e faixa etária de 19 a 69 anos. Foram adquiridas neuroimagens em uma máquina de Ressonância Magnética de alto campo (3T) usando diferentes técnicas de imagens; volumétricas ponderadas em T1, volumétricas de inversão e recuperação com atenuação de fluidos e ponderadas em T2, relaxométricas de cinco ecos para mapas de T2, de transferência de magnetização e por tensor de difusão. As imagens foram processadas em diferentes ferramentas computacionais e foram obtidos resultados para estudos da difusibilidade, volumetria, morfometria, tratometria e conectividade cerebral, além de achados radiológicos para os pacientes. As análises de grupos foram executadas por; 1) testes paramétricos monocaudais de duas amostras pareadas para os resultados da volumetria, da tratometria e conectividade cerebral; 2) mapeamento estatístico paramétrico para os resultados da morfometria baseada em voxel e; 3) estatística espacial baseada em tratos para os resultados da difusibilidade. Foram detectas alterações em todas as comparações. Os principais achados indicam um envolvimento possivelmente caracterizado por uma perda volumétrica encefálica generalizada, sobretudo nas regiões periventriculares associadas a ventrículos proeminentes acrescido de, um aumento da difusibilidade transversa e oblíqua nos maiores tratos de substância branca e, também há uma perda de densidade na substância branca periventricular e um aumento na substância cinzenta em uma região que sinaliza para o espessamento trigeminal bilateral e, uma redução geral da conectividade cerebral estrutural. / Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP) is a severe disease fundamentally characterized by dysfunction of the Peripheral Nervous System and affects greatly the quality of life of patients. The Central Nervous System (CNS) involvement in CIDP has not been described using recent quantitative neuroimaging techniques. We evaluated 11 patients with CIDP, all treated and without clinical signs of central alterations and 11 controls matched for gender and age group of 19 to 69 years. Magnetic Resonance Imaging were performed on a 3T scanner using different imaging techniques; structural 3D T1-weighted, fluid-attenuated inversion recovery, relaxometry with 5 echoes pulse sequence for T2 maps, magnetization transfer weighted and diffusion tensor imaging. The images were processed on different tools and were obtained results for the studies of diffusivity, volumetry, morphometry, tractometry, brain connectivity, and radiological findings of patients. Different statistical group analyses were performed in the quantitative results: 1) Parametric test for volumetry, tractometry and brain connectivity; 2) Parametric mapping for voxel morphometry; 3) Tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) for diffusion coefficients. Changes were detected in all comparisons. In the patients, our main findings are: generalized loss brain volume more pronounced in periventricular regions associated with prominent ventricles, increased simultaneously perpendiculars and parallel diffusivity in the major tracts of the TBSS analyze, white matter density loss in the periventricular area, some bilateral trigeminal thickening, and general reduction of the brain connectivity. The CIDP affects the global brain and represents a demyelination in the CNS.

Le contrôle explicite de la convergence des sommes convenablement normalisées de variables aléatoires, ainsi que l'étude du principe de déviations modérées associé à ces sommes constituent les thèmes centraux de cette thèse. Nous étudions principalement deux types de processus. Premièrement, nous nous intéressons aux processus indexés par un arbre binaire, aléatoire ou non. Ces processus ont été introduits dans la littérature afin d'étudier le mécanisme de la division cellulaire. Au chapitre 2, nous étudions les chaînes de Markov bifurcantes. Ces chaînes peuvent être vues comme une adaptation des chaînes de Markov "usuelles'' dans le cas où l'ensemble des indices à une structure binaire. Sous des hypothèses d'ergodicité géométrique uniforme et non-uniforme d'une chaîne de Markov induite, nous fournissons des inégalités de déviations et un principe de déviations modérées pour les chaînes de Markov bifurcantes. Au chapitre 3, nous nous intéressons aux processus bifurcants autorégressifs d'ordre p (). Ces processus sont une adaptation des processus autorégressifs linéaires d'ordre p dans le cas où l'ensemble des indices à une structure binaire. Nous donnons des inégalités de déviations, ainsi qu'un principe de déviations modérées pour les estimateurs des moindres carrés des paramètres "d'autorégression'' de ce modèle. Au chapitre 4, nous traitons des inégalités de déviations pour des chaînes de Markov bifurcantes sur un arbre de Galton-Watson. Ces chaînes sont une généralisation de la notion de chaînes de Markov bifurcantes au cas où l'ensemble des indices est un arbre de Galton-Watson binaire. Elles permettent dans le cas de la division cellulaire de prendre en compte la mort des cellules. Les hypothèses principales que nous faisons dans ce chapitre sont : l'ergodicité géométrique uniforme d'une chaîne de Markov induite et la non-extinction du processus de Galton-Watson associé. Au chapitre 5, nous nous intéressons aux modèles autorégressifs linéaires d'ordre 1 ayant des résidus corrélés. Plus particulièrement, nous nous concentrons sur la statistique de Durbin-Watson. La statistique de Durbin-Watson est à la base des tests de Durbin-Watson, qui permettent de détecter l'autocorrélation résiduelle dans des modèles autorégressifs d'ordre 1. Nous fournissons un principe de déviations modérées pour cette statistique. Les preuves du principe de déviations modérées des chapitres 2, 3 et 4 reposent essentiellement sur le principe de déviations modérées des martingales. Les inégalités de déviations sont établies principalement grâce à l'inégalité d'Azuma-Bennet-Hoeffding et l'utilisation de la structure binaire des processus. Le chapitre 5 est né de l'importance qu'a l'ergodicité explicite des chaînes de Markov au chapitre 3. L'ergodicité géométrique explicite des processus de Markov à temps discret et continu ayant été très bien étudiée dans la littérature, nous nous sommes penchés sur l'ergodicité sous-exponentielle des processus de Markov à temps continu. Nous fournissons alors des taux explicites pour la convergence sous exponentielle d'un processus de Markov à temps continu vers sa mesure de probabilité d'équilibre. Les hypothèses principales que nous utilisons sont : l'existence d'une fonction de Lyapunov et d'une condition de minoration. Les preuves reposent en grande partie sur la construction du couplage et le contrôle explicite de la queue du temps de couplage. / The explicit control of the convergence of properly normalized sums of random variables, as well as the study of moderate deviation principle associated with these sums constitute the main subjects of this thesis. We mostly study two sort of processes. First, we are interested in processes labelled by binary tree, random or not. These processes have been introduced in the literature in order to study mechanism of the cell division. In Chapter 2, we study bifurcating Markov chains. These chains may be seen as an adaptation of "usual'' Markov chains in case the index set has a binary structure. Under uniform and non-uniform geometric ergodicity assumptions of an embedded Markov chain, we provide deviation inequalities and a moderate deviation principle for the bifurcating Markov chains. In chapter 3, we are interested in p-order bifurcating autoregressive processes (). These processes are an adaptation of $p$-order linear autoregressive processes in case the index set has a binary structure. We provide deviation inequalities, as well as an moderate deviation principle for the least squares estimators of autoregressive parameters of this model. In Chapter 4, we dealt with deviation deviation inequalities for bifurcating Markov chains on Galton-Watson tree. These chains are a generalization of the notion of bifurcating Markov chains in case the index set is a binary Galton-Watson tree. They allow, in case of cell division, to take into account cell's death. The main hypothesis that we do in this chapter are : uniform geometric ergodicity of an embedded Markov chain and the non-extinction of the associated Galton-Watson process. In Chapter 5, we are interested in first-order linear autoregressive models with correlated errors. More specifically, we focus on the Durbin-Watson statistic. The Durbin-Watson statistic is at the base of Durbin-Watson tests, which allow to detect serial correlation in the first-order autoregressive models. We provide a moderate deviation principle for this statistic. The proofs of moderate deviation principle of Chapter 2, 3 and 4 are essentially based on moderate deviation for martingales. To establish deviation inequalities, we use most the Azuma-Bennet-Hoeffding inequality and the binary structure of processes. Chapter 6 was born from the importance that explicit ergodicity of Markov chains has in Chapter 2. Since explicit geometric ergodicity of discrete and continuous time Markov processes has been well studied in the literature, we focused on the sub-exponential ergodicity of continuous time Markov Processes. We thus provide explicit rates for the sub-exponential convergence of a continuous time Markov process to its stationary distribution. The main hypothesis that we use are : existence of a Lyapunov fonction and of a minorization condition. The proofs are largely based on the coupling construction and the explicit control of the tail of the coupling time.

Introdução: Poucos estudos avaliaram o valor prognóstico em longo prazo da presença, extensão e gravidade da doença arterial coronária (DAC) detectada pela angiotomografia computadorizada de artérias coronárias (TCcor). Métodos: Todos os pacientes consecutivos sem DAC prévia que realizaram TCcor para avaliar DAC foram incluídos. Os resultados da TCcor foram classificados como normal, DAC não-obstrutiva (estenose < 50%), ou obstrutiva (>= 50%). Além disso, com base no número de segmentos com a doença, a DAC foi classificada como não-extensa (<= 4 segmentos) ou extensa (> 4 segmentos). Os pacientes foram acompanhados para o desfecho primário de eventos cardiovasculares (CV) incluindo morte ou infarto do miocárdio (IAM) e um desfecho secundário dos eventos cardiovasculares adversos maiores, constituído por morte CV, IAM ou revascularização coronária tardia (> 90 dias). Resultados: Entre 3242 pacientes acompanhados por uma média de 3,6 ± 1,8 anos, ocorreram 92 (2,8%) eventos primários e 195 (6,0%) apresentaram o desfecho secundário. Em uma análise multivariada, foram associados com aumento de eventos a presença de DAC extensa não-obstrutiva (hazard ratio (HR): 3.1, intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC): 1,5-6,5); não-extensa obstrutiva (HR: 3,0, IC 95%: 1,3 - 7,0) e DAC obstrutiva extensa (HR: 3,9, IC 95%: 2,1-7,2), enquanto os não-extensiva CAD não-obstrutiva não esteve associada a eventos (HR: 1,3, IC 95%: 0,6-2,4). A adição da extensão da placa a um modelo que incluía probabilidade clínica de DAC, assim como a presença e gravidade de DAC resultou na melhoria da predição de eventos CV. Conclusão: Entre os pacientes com DAC não obstrutiva, aqueles com mais de 4 segmentos com doença apresentaram uma maior taxa de CV morte ou MI, comparáveis aos que têm doença obstrutiva com <= 4 segmentos. Mesmo entre os pacientes com DAC obstrutiva, maior extensão de placa esteve associado com maior taxa de eventos. Estes resultados sugerem que, independentemente da presença de estenose, a extensão da placa não-obstrutiva reforça a avaliação de risco além dos dados clínicos e outros achados TCcor / Introduction: There is limited prior data on the long-term prognostic value of the presence, extent and severity of both non-obstructive and obstructive CAD detected by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). Methods: All consecutive patients without prior CAD referred for CCTA to evaluate for CAD were included. CCTA findings were classified as normal, non-obstructive (< 50% stenosis) or obstructive (>= 50%) disease. Additionally, based on the number of segments with disease, extent of CAD was classified as non-extensive (<=4 segments) or extensive (> 4 segments). Patients were followed for a primary endpoint of cardiovascular (CV) death or myocardial infarction (MI) and a secondary endpoint of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) consisting of CV death, MI or late coronary revascularization (> 90 days). Results: Among 3242 patients followed for a mean of 3.6±1.8 years, 92 (2.8%) patients who experienced the primary endpoints and 195 (6.0%) experienced the secondary endpoint. In a multivariable analysis, the presence of extensive non-obstructive CAD (hazard ratio (HR): 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5 - 6.5); non-extensive obstructive (HR: 3.0, 95%CI: 1.3 - 7.0) and extensive obstructive CAD (HR: 3.9, 95%CI: 2.1 - 7.2) were associated with increase in the rate of the primary endpoint, while non-extensive non-obstructive CAD was not (HR: 1.3, 95%CI: 0.6 - 2.4). The addition of the extent of plaque to a model, which included clinical probability of CAD as well as the presence and severity of CAD, resulted in improved prediction of all endpoints. Conclusion: Among patients with non-obstructive CAD, those with more than 4 segments with disease experienced a higher rate CV death or MI, comparable to those who have obstructive disease with <= 4 diseased segments. Even among patients with obstructive CAD, greater extent of non-obstructive plaque was associated with higher event rate. These findings suggest that regardless of whether stenosis is present or absent, the extent of non-obstructive plaque enhances risk assessment beyond clinical data and other CCTA findings

In this study, the local similarity theory functions were calculated with two different approaches and on the other hand the mean hub height wind speed was compared with the rotor equivalent wind speed. Both calculations are based on two independent data-sets from measurement campaigns Hornamossen and Ryningsnäs which were conducted in the south of Sweden between May 2015 and June 2017, and November 2010 and February 2012. The first campaign includes measurements between 100 and 173 m and the second 98 and 138 m. In general, the aims were to validate if the results with reference functions and to compare the results from both approaches. The local similarity theory was used, because well above the ground, the assumption of a constant flux layer typically does not hold especially in the stable boundary layer. The used approaches are the flux-gradient and Richardson number formulation. Based on those, the non-dimensional universal functions for momentum and heat could be calculated and those could be presented as functions of the stability parameter. As shown in this study, the scatter the Richardson number formulation results are significant smaller compared to the flux-gradient formulation. One reason can be that the stability parameter and the universal functions for momentum and heat depend solely on the Richardson number. Despite the higher scatter, the medians of the universal function for momentum based on the flux-gradient formulations for both data-sets agree also with the references. Furthermore, for the results of the universal function for heat based on the flux-gradient formulation agree with the references if the minimum limit for the kinetic heat flux is significantly higher than for the universal function for momentum. Furthermore, in the publication from England &amp; McNider 1995, who derived the Richardson number formulation, includes two erroneous equations for stable stratification. One of them has a tipping error and the other was incorrectly derived. Thus, the corrected equations are presented in this work. This work also presents new equations which are not based on the assumption that the constants of the empirical formulation for the universal function for momentum and heat with the same value. A comparison of the old and new equations show for a generated Richardson number vales a agreement of the results over the defined Richardson number range. Finally, in the wind industry it is a common practice to use the mean wind speed at the hub height as the representative mean wind speed over the entire rotor swept area. However, this assumption differs increasingly from the reality, because turbine sizes increase constantly. Thus, in this study, this common method is compared with another averaging concept. Hence, the work focuses on a area-weighted mean wind speed which is called the rotor equivalent wind speed. This average gives a better estimation of the existing wind field because it is based on multiple measurements at various heights. Since the wind gradient changes with height, those two velocities are plotted as functions of the same stability parameter as above. The main results in unstable stratification are that the hub height wind speed underestimates the rotor equivalent wind speed by about 1 to 1.5 %. In stable stratification the results vary: Two calculations show a overestimates by about 1 % and another shows no difference between those averages. Hence, the conclusion based on those findings are that the hub height wind speed is a source for a higher modelling uncertainty. On the contrary, the rotor equivalent wind speed gives more accurate modelling results. / I denna studie beräknades de lokala likhetsteorifunktionerna med två olika tillvägagångssätt och å andra sidan jämförs genomsnittliga vindhastigheten vid navhöjden med rotorekvivalent vindhastigheten. Beräkningarna är baserad på två oberoende datamängder från mätningskampanjer Hornamossen och Ryningsnäs som genomfördes i södra Sverige mellan maj 2015 och juni 2017 och november 2010 och februari 2012. Första kampanj innehåller mätningar mellan 100 och 173 m och den andra 98 och 138 m. Generellt var målet att validera resultaten med referensfunktioner och jämföra både tillvägagångssätt med varandra. Lokala likhetsteorinen används eftersom för mätningar långt över marken håller antagandet om ett konstant flödesskikt vanligtvis inte. Det gäller särskilt i det stabila gränsskiktet. De två tillvägagångssätten är flödesgradientförhållandet och Richardson-talformuleringen. Baserade på de formuleringarna kan de icke-dimensionella universella funktionerna för momentum och värme beräknas och de visas som en funktion av stabilitetsparametern. I denna studie visas att spridningen av Richardsons talformuleringsresultat är signifikant mindre jämfört med andra metoden. En anledning är att stabilitetsparameter och både universella funktioner beror endast på Richardson tal. Trots den högre spridningen överensstämmer medianerna för den universella funktionen för momentum baserat på flödesgradientformuleringarna med referenserna. Detsamma gäller för resultaten av den universella funktionen för värme baserat på flödesgradientformuleringen om minimigränsen om kinetiska värmeflödet är betydligt högre än för den universella funktionen för momentum. Dessutom innehåller publikationen från England &amp; McNider 1995, som innehåller härledning av Richardson talformulering, två felaktiga ekvationer för stabila gränsskiktet. En av dem har ett tippfel och den andra var felaktigt härledd. Detta arbete presenteras de korrigerade ekvationerna. Dessutom presenteras en uppsättning nya ekvationer där de konstanterna av den empiriska formuleringen för den universella funktionen för momentum och värme inte antas att har samma värde. Slutligen är det i vindindustrin en vanlig praxis att använda den genomsnittliga vindhastigheten vid navhöjden som den representativa medelvindhastigheten för hela "rotor swept area". Turbinstorlekarna ökar dock ständigt och därför får skillnaden mellan realitet och beräkningen alltid större. Således fokusera denna studien en areaviktad medelvindhastighet som heter rotorekvivalent vindhastighet. Den beräknar medelvindhastigheten med ett mindre osäkerhet eftersom den är baserad på flera vindmätningar på olika höjder. På grund av ett ojämt vindgradient i gränsskiktet visas resulten som funktion av densamma stailitetsparameter från likhetsteorien. Huvudresultaten för instabil gränskiktet är att navhöjdens vindhastigheten underskattar rotorekvivalent vindhastigheten med cirka 1 till 1,5 %. För det stabila gränskiktet finns olika resultaten: Två beräkningar visar att navhöjdens vindhastigheten överskattningar rotorekvivalent vindhastigheten med ungefär 1 % och en beräkning visa inget skillnad mellan medelvärdarna. Slutsatsen är att navhöjdens vindhastigheten är ett källa till ett högre modelleringsosäkerhet. Däremot visades att användningen av rotorekvivalent vindhastigheten leda till ett bättre prognosresultat. / In dieser Studie wurde einerseits die lokale ähnlichkeitstheorie mit zwei unterschiedlichen Ansätzen berechnet und andererseits die durchschnittliche Nabenhöhen- mit der rotor-äquivalenten Windgeschwin- digkeit verglichen. Dafür standen zwei unabhängige Datensätze zur Verfügung, welche Messwerte zwischen 98 und 173 m beinhalteten. Die Messungen wurden in Südschweden durch die Messtürme Hornamossen und Ryningsnäs in den Zeiträumen von Mai 2015 bis Juni 2017 und von November 2012 bis Februar 2012 erhoben. Das Ziel dieser Studie war es, die Ergebnisse aus den Berechnungen mit Referenzfunktionen zu validieren und den ausgewählten Ansätzen zu vergleichen. Für Messungen mit mehr als 100 m über der Erdoberfläche ist die lokale ähnlichkeitstheorie anstelle der ähnlichkeitstheorie basierend auf der konstanten Flussschicht besser geeignet, da letztere von einem konstanten Wert ausgeht. Die Ansätze, die hierfür verwendet wurden, sind die „Flux-Gradient Formulation“ und die „Gradient Richardson Number Formulation“. Mit beiden kann die universelle Impuls- und Wärmefunktion berechnet und als Funktion des Stabilitätsparameters dargestellt werden. Wie diese Studie zeigt, ist die Streuung um die Referenzkurven sehr klein für die „Gradient Richardson Number“ Ergebnisse im Vergleich zur „Flux-Gradient Formulation“. Dies liegt daran, dass sowohl der Stabilitätsparameter und die universellen Impuls- und Wärmefunktion nur von der Richardson-Zahl abhängen. Trotz der höheren Streuung für die „Flux-Gradient Formulation“ stimmen die Mediane der universellen Impulsfunktionen von beiden Datensätzen und die Referenzkurven überein. Das Gleiche gilt für die Ergebnisse der universellen Wärmefunktion basierend auf der „Flux-Gradient Formulation“, wenn der Mindestwert für den kinetischen Wärmefluss signifikant größer ist als für die universelle Impulsfunktion. Ausgangspunkt ist die Veröffentlichung von England &amp; McNider 1995, welche die „Gradient Richardson Number Formulation“ dargestellt haben. Diese enthält zwei fehlerhafte Gleichungen, wovon eine einen Tippfehler aufweist und die andere auf einer fehlerhaften Herleitung basiert. Diese Arbeit stellt daher ebenso die korrigierten Gleichungen dar. Zusätzlich werden neue Gleichungen vorgestellt, bei denen nicht angenommen wird, dass die von England &amp; McNider angenommenen Konstanten der empirischen Funktionen für die universelle Impuls- und Wärmefunktion den gleichen Wert haben. In der Windindustrie ist es üblich, dass die durchschnittliche Nabenhöhen-Windgeschwindigkeit als Durchschnittsgeschwindigkeit für die gesamte „rotor swept area“ angenommen wird. Diese Annahme weicht immer mehr von der Realität ab, weil Windkraftwerke kontinuierlich größer werden. Daher wird in dieser Arbeit auf eine flächengewichtete mittlere Windgeschwindigkeit mit der Bezeichnung Rotor-äquivalente Windgeschwindigkeit gearbeitet. Diese produziert realistischere Durchschnittswerte, weil sie Messungen von mehreren vertikal verteilten Messpunkten einbezieht. Aufgrund des sich verändernden Windgradientens in der Grenzschicht wird die Abweichung zwischen diesen beiden Geschwindig- keiten als Funktion der Schichtungsstabilität dargestellt. Die zentralen Ergebnisse dieser Studie zeigen zusammenfassend, dass bei labiler Schichtung die Nabenhöhen-Windgeschwindigkeit die Rotor-äquivalente Windgeschwindigkeit um etwa 1 % bis 1.5 % unterschätzt. Für die stabile Schichtung unterscheiden sich die Ergebnisse: Zwei Berechnungen zeigen, dass die Nabenhöhen-Windgeschwindigkeit die Rotor-äquivalente Windgeschwindigkeit um ca. 1 % überschätzt und eine andere Berechnung zeigt keinen Unterschied zwischen den Mittelwerten. Daraus kann gefolgert werden, dass die Nabenhöhen-Windgeschwindigkeit eine höhere Fehlerquelle aufweist. Im Gegensatz dazu liefert die rotor-äquivalente Windgeschwindigkeit genauere Prognosewerte.

This master thesis deals with design and implementation of betting agent. It covers issues such as theoretical background of an online betting, probability and statistics. In its first part it is focused on data mining and explains the principle of knowledge mining form data warehouses and certain methods suitable for different types of tasks. Second, it is concerned with neural networks and algorithm of back-propagation. All the findings are demonstrated on and supported by graphs and histograms of data analysis, made via SAS Enterprise Miner program. In conclusion, the thesis summarizes all the results and offers specific methods of extension of the agent.

Summary and key words in German and English / Every church faces the challenge of procuring capable workers for the multifaceted task of ministry. For several decades now official denominational statements and the discipline of Practical Theology have been calling for a new understanding of giftedness in ecclesial service. As yet little fundamental research has been done in this area. This dissertation seeks to make a contribution both empirically and theologically. It marks the first time in the German–speaking world of Practical Theology that the issue of how one discovers charisms is addressed academically. The specific field of research is located in the Protestant Regional Church of Baden in southwest Germany. Nevertheless the findings can be applied more broadly since the research is based on thorough exegetical and systematic–theological analysis and has been verified empirically. There has been a quest for the charisms of the Spirit since the beginning of the twentieth century and even more so now in the face of the societal challenges of postmodernity. In the discussion of the different theological positionens arise as result that charisms have to be seen with an triune approach. In addtion, besindes the fact that charisms have a habitual meaning, they first of all have a relational dimension. The empirical research involved online–interviewings of pastors, plus interviews of church members. One of the major findings was that the views of pastors on how church members receive gifts is determined by their theological understanding of the charisms. Pastors discover gifts, not according to Pauline criteria, but largely according to emotional aspects, as proved by this research. It became apparent that protestant pastors are of the opinion that New Testament charisms are not first received at baptism, but already at birth. Another interesting finding is that members of both protestant main stream churches and pentacostal-charismatic churches hold the same believes about how to receive charisms. The only difference is their repertoire of gifts. This dissertation focuses on developing guidelines for the discovery of charisms within the congregation as the local body of the Church. / Fähige Mitarbeiter für eine vielgestaltige Gemeindearbeit zu finden, ist in jeder Kirche eine bleibende Aufgabe und Herausforderung. Seit einigen Jahrzehnten wird in kirchlichen Verlautbarungen und in der Praktischen Theologie verstärkt das Konzept einer gabenorientierten Mitarbeit betont. Dieses Feld ist noch wenig grundsätzlich erforscht. Die vorliegende Arbeit greift empirisch und theologisch in die aktuelle Diskussion ein. Innerhalb der Praktischen Theologie im deutschsprachigen Raum liegt mit ihr zum ersten Mal eine wissenschaftliche Untersuchung zur Frage vor, wie Charismen im Forschungsfeld der Evangelischen Landeskirche in Baden entdeckt werden. Die Ergebnisse reichen aber weit über diesen Rahmen hinaus und können grundsätzlich gelten, weil sie auf dem Hintergrund exegetischer und systematisch-theologischer Grundlagenarbeit in einer sorgfältigen empirischen Methodik erhoben, reflektiert und ausgewertet wurden. Die Ausführungen zeigen, dass die Suche nach Charismen seit Beginn des 20. Jh. angesichts der gesellschaftlichen Umbrüche im Kontext der Postmoderne zu einem großen Thema geworden ist. Aus den theologischen Positionen erwuchs die wesentliche Einsicht, dass Charismen trinitarisch einzuordnen sind und neben dem habituellen Charismenverständnis vor allem die relationale Dimension vorliegt. Die empirische Forschungsarbeit umfasst eine Online-Befragung von Pfarrern, ergänzend dazu wurden Gemeindeglieder interviewt. Als eines der Hauptergebnisse stellte sich heraus, dass die Meinung der Pfarrer, wie Gemeindeglieder Gaben empfangen, durch ihr theologisches Gabenverständnis bestimmt wird. Wie Pfarrer Gaben entdecken, richtet sich weithin nicht nach den paulinischen Kriterien, sondern nach emotionalen Gesichtspunkten, wie in der vorliegenden Arbeit nachgewiesen werden konnte. Wie sich herausstellte, sind Pfarrer der Überzeugung, dass neutestamentliche Gaben nicht erst bei der Taufe empfangen werden, sondern mit der biologischen Geburt. Ein weiterer interessanter Aspekt belegt, dass Gemeindeglieder der evangelischen Landeskirche im Vergleich zu charismatisch-pentekostalen Gemeindegliedern Gaben nach ihren subjektiven Glaubensüberzeugungen in derselben Weise empfangen, lediglich das Gabenrepertoire unterscheidet sich. Die vorliegende Arbeit zielt darauf ab, Leitlinien zum Entdecken von Charismen im Kontext der lokalen Gemeinde zu entwickeln. / Practical Theology / Thesis (D. Th. (Practical Theology))

Summary and key words in German and English / Every church faces the challenge of procuring capable workers for the multifaceted task of ministry. For several decades now official denominational statements and the discipline of Practical Theology have been calling for a new understanding of giftedness in ecclesial service. As yet little fundamental research has been done in this area. This dissertation seeks to make a contribution both empirically and theologically. It marks the first time in the German–speaking world of Practical Theology that the issue of how one discovers charisms is addressed academically. The specific field of research is located in the Protestant Regional Church of Baden in southwest Germany. Nevertheless the findings can be applied more broadly since the research is based on thorough exegetical and systematic–theological analysis and has been verified empirically. There has been a quest for the charisms of the Spirit since the beginning of the twentieth century and even more so now in the face of the societal challenges of postmodernity. In the discussion of the different theological positionens arise as result that charisms have to be seen with an triune approach. In addtion, besindes the fact that charisms have a habitual meaning, they first of all have a relational dimension. The empirical research involved online–interviewings of pastors, plus interviews of church members. One of the major findings was that the views of pastors on how church members receive gifts is determined by their theological understanding of the charisms. Pastors discover gifts, not according to Pauline criteria, but largely according to emotional aspects, as proved by this research. It became apparent that protestant pastors are of the opinion that New Testament charisms are not first received at baptism, but already at birth. Another interesting finding is that members of both protestant main stream churches and pentacostal-charismatic churches hold the same believes about how to receive charisms. The only difference is their repertoire of gifts. This dissertation focuses on developing guidelines for the discovery of charisms within the congregation as the local body of the Church. / Fähige Mitarbeiter für eine vielgestaltige Gemeindearbeit zu finden, ist in jeder Kirche eine bleibende Aufgabe und Herausforderung. Seit einigen Jahrzehnten wird in kirchlichen Verlautbarungen und in der Praktischen Theologie verstärkt das Konzept einer gabenorientierten Mitarbeit betont. Dieses Feld ist noch wenig grundsätzlich erforscht. Die vorliegende Arbeit greift empirisch und theologisch in die aktuelle Diskussion ein. Innerhalb der Praktischen Theologie im deutschsprachigen Raum liegt mit ihr zum ersten Mal eine wissenschaftliche Untersuchung zur Frage vor, wie Charismen im Forschungsfeld der Evangelischen Landeskirche in Baden entdeckt werden. Die Ergebnisse reichen aber weit über diesen Rahmen hinaus und können grundsätzlich gelten, weil sie auf dem Hintergrund exegetischer und systematisch-theologischer Grundlagenarbeit in einer sorgfältigen empirischen Methodik erhoben, reflektiert und ausgewertet wurden. Die Ausführungen zeigen, dass die Suche nach Charismen seit Beginn des 20. Jh. angesichts der gesellschaftlichen Umbrüche im Kontext der Postmoderne zu einem großen Thema geworden ist. Aus den theologischen Positionen erwuchs die wesentliche Einsicht, dass Charismen trinitarisch einzuordnen sind und neben dem habituellen Charismenverständnis vor allem die relationale Dimension vorliegt. Die empirische Forschungsarbeit umfasst eine Online-Befragung von Pfarrern, ergänzend dazu wurden Gemeindeglieder interviewt. Als eines der Hauptergebnisse stellte sich heraus, dass die Meinung der Pfarrer, wie Gemeindeglieder Gaben empfangen, durch ihr theologisches Gabenverständnis bestimmt wird. Wie Pfarrer Gaben entdecken, richtet sich weithin nicht nach den paulinischen Kriterien, sondern nach emotionalen Gesichtspunkten, wie in der vorliegenden Arbeit nachgewiesen werden konnte. Wie sich herausstellte, sind Pfarrer der Überzeugung, dass neutestamentliche Gaben nicht erst bei der Taufe empfangen werden, sondern mit der biologischen Geburt. Ein weiterer interessanter Aspekt belegt, dass Gemeindeglieder der evangelischen Landeskirche im Vergleich zu charismatisch-pentekostalen Gemeindegliedern Gaben nach ihren subjektiven Glaubensüberzeugungen in derselben Weise empfangen, lediglich das Gabenrepertoire unterscheidet sich. Die vorliegende Arbeit zielt darauf ab, Leitlinien zum Entdecken von Charismen im Kontext der lokalen Gemeinde zu entwickeln. / Philosophy, Practical and Systematic Theology / Thesis (D. Th. (Practical Theology))