<p>The purpose of this thesis is to investigate patterns in educational enrollment and attainment in educational levels among women in South Africa. Some evidence from the literature suggest a slow increase in women&rsquo / s education and employment opportunities in South Africa. However, little is known about the way in which this slow pattern reflects at all levels and fields of education with special reference to the female population in South Africa. The thesis aims at examining changes of attainment in women&rsquo / s education from a sociodemographic perspective between 2004 and 2007. Factors affecting women&rsquo / s education in South Africa are also considered as they play major roles in women&rsquo / s enrollment and completion at school. The study focuses on women through different social and demographic attributes, by taking account of variables such as age, education attainment, geographic areas, population group to name but a few. All educational institutions are covered and two female groups are considered, women at school and women who left school. The study makes use of already existing data from General Household Survey conducted in 2004 and 2007 respectively, to bring some comparative perspective. The scope of the study is national in that, all the nine provinces are covered making distinction of rural and urban areas.</p>

How does the satisfaction (or the lack of satisfaction) of the innate need to have meaningful interpersonal relationships affects behavioural self-regulation? How does having/lacking interpersonal relatedness impact one’s perception of future interpersonal relationships? This doctoral dissertation aimed to answer these two fundamental questions by integrating the views of two complementary theories, need to belong theory (NBT; Baumeister & Leary, 1995) and self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000). Using a series of two laboratory experiments and one longitudinal study, this thesis examined the effects of social exclusion and inclusion on satisfaction of basic psychological needs, self-determined motivation, and self-regulation of behaviours. In Study 1 (N=72), social exclusion and inclusion were manipulated in order to examine their effects on the satisfaction of the three basic psychological needs proposed by SDT, that is the needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness. Findings from this first experiment revealed that social exclusion decreases satisfaction of the three needs, whereas social inclusion increases satisfaction of these needs when compared to the control condition. Furthermore, significant differences were found between the exclusion condition and the inclusion condition for the reported levels of satisfaction of the needs for competence and relatedness. The effects of social exclusion and inclusion on basic needs satisfaction were further investigated in Study 2 (N=70); also, the second study examined how self-determined motivation and behavioural self-regulation are affected. More specifically, it tested whether participants’ persistence at a laboratory task, as well as their intentions for a future peer interaction (intentions to compete against a peer participant and intentions to collaborate with a peer participant) are influenced by social exclusion and inclusion, through the meditating effects of basic needs satisfaction and self-determined motivation. The results suggested that social exclusion, via the effects of basic needs and motivation decreases peer collaboration, whereas social inclusion was shown to have an opposite effect on peer collaboration. The effect of condition via the mediating effects of basic needs satisfaction and motivation failed to predict persistence at the task and peer competition. Lastly, Study 3 (N=624) assessed naturally occurring social exclusion and inclusion in a population of junior high school students. This third study investigated the independent contributions of SDT and NBT in the prediction of academic motivation and high school dropout. Peer relatedness, perceived needs support from parents, and perceived needs support from teachers were examined as potential predictors of academic motivation and high school dropout. Findings suggested that peer relatedness plays an important role in the prediction of academic motivation, but, that perceived needs support from parents and perceived needs support from teachers are stronger predictors of that outcome. Results from this study also revealed that peer relatedness contributes to the prediction of high school dropout, beyond what can be explained by academic motivation, perceived needs support from parents, and perceived needs support from teachers. However, perceived needs support from parents was shown to be the most essential predictor of high school dropout. In sum, findings from this doctoral dissertation suggested that social exclusion has detrimental effects on one’s motivation and behavioural self-regulation. In contrast, social inclusion fosters social support which promotes satisfaction of the basic psychological needs, self-determined motivation, and successful self-regulation. This doctoral thesis contributed to the application of SDT and NBT by comparing elements of the two complementary frameworks. It also offered an original contribution to research on social exclusion and inclusion by examining their impacts on self-determined motivation, and basic needs satisfaction, as well as testing them in both the laboratory setting and the natural setting.

How does the satisfaction (or the lack of satisfaction) of the innate need to have meaningful interpersonal relationships affects behavioural self-regulation? How does having/lacking interpersonal relatedness impact one’s perception of future interpersonal relationships? This doctoral dissertation aimed to answer these two fundamental questions by integrating the views of two complementary theories, need to belong theory (NBT; Baumeister & Leary, 1995) and self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000). Using a series of two laboratory experiments and one longitudinal study, this thesis examined the effects of social exclusion and inclusion on satisfaction of basic psychological needs, self-determined motivation, and self-regulation of behaviours. In Study 1 (N=72), social exclusion and inclusion were manipulated in order to examine their effects on the satisfaction of the three basic psychological needs proposed by SDT, that is the needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness. Findings from this first experiment revealed that social exclusion decreases satisfaction of the three needs, whereas social inclusion increases satisfaction of these needs when compared to the control condition. Furthermore, significant differences were found between the exclusion condition and the inclusion condition for the reported levels of satisfaction of the needs for competence and relatedness. The effects of social exclusion and inclusion on basic needs satisfaction were further investigated in Study 2 (N=70); also, the second study examined how self-determined motivation and behavioural self-regulation are affected. More specifically, it tested whether participants’ persistence at a laboratory task, as well as their intentions for a future peer interaction (intentions to compete against a peer participant and intentions to collaborate with a peer participant) are influenced by social exclusion and inclusion, through the meditating effects of basic needs satisfaction and self-determined motivation. The results suggested that social exclusion, via the effects of basic needs and motivation decreases peer collaboration, whereas social inclusion was shown to have an opposite effect on peer collaboration. The effect of condition via the mediating effects of basic needs satisfaction and motivation failed to predict persistence at the task and peer competition. Lastly, Study 3 (N=624) assessed naturally occurring social exclusion and inclusion in a population of junior high school students. This third study investigated the independent contributions of SDT and NBT in the prediction of academic motivation and high school dropout. Peer relatedness, perceived needs support from parents, and perceived needs support from teachers were examined as potential predictors of academic motivation and high school dropout. Findings suggested that peer relatedness plays an important role in the prediction of academic motivation, but, that perceived needs support from parents and perceived needs support from teachers are stronger predictors of that outcome. Results from this study also revealed that peer relatedness contributes to the prediction of high school dropout, beyond what can be explained by academic motivation, perceived needs support from parents, and perceived needs support from teachers. However, perceived needs support from parents was shown to be the most essential predictor of high school dropout. In sum, findings from this doctoral dissertation suggested that social exclusion has detrimental effects on one’s motivation and behavioural self-regulation. In contrast, social inclusion fosters social support which promotes satisfaction of the basic psychological needs, self-determined motivation, and successful self-regulation. This doctoral thesis contributed to the application of SDT and NBT by comparing elements of the two complementary frameworks. It also offered an original contribution to research on social exclusion and inclusion by examining their impacts on self-determined motivation, and basic needs satisfaction, as well as testing them in both the laboratory setting and the natural setting.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to investigate patterns in educational enrollment and attainment in educational levels among women in South Africa. Some evidence from the literature suggest a slow increase in women&rsquo / s education and employment opportunities in South Africa. However, little is known about the way in which this slow pattern reflects at all levels and fields of education with special reference to the female population in South Africa. The thesis aims at examining changes of attainment in women&rsquo / s education from a sociodemographic perspective between 2004 and 2007. Factors affecting women&rsquo / s education in South Africa are also considered as they play major roles in women&rsquo / s enrollment and completion at school. The study focuses on women through different social and demographic attributes, by taking account of variables such as age, education attainment, geographic areas, population group to name but a few. All educational institutions are covered and two female groups are considered, women at school and women who left school. The study makes use of already existing data from General Household Survey conducted in 2004 and 2007 respectively, to bring some comparative perspective. The scope of the study is national in that, all the nine provinces are covered making distinction of rural and urban areas.</p>

Le décrochage scolaire des adolescents est un phénomène alarmant qui occasionne de multiples conséquences négatives, tant pour le jeune que pour la société. Des recherches empiriques ont soulevé l’importance de considérer les décrocheurs comme un groupe aux profils hétérogènes. En conséquence, quelques chercheurs ont proposé des typologies des décrocheurs scolaires à l’adolescence, dont Janosz (1994; Janosz, Le Blanc, Boulerice, & Tremblay 2000). À partir de trois indicateurs de l’adaptation scolaire des adolescents (engagement scolaire, indiscipline scolaire et performance scolaire), Janosz et ses collègues ont identifié quatre types de décrocheurs scolaires potentiels, soient les Discrets, les Désengagés, les Sous-performants et les Inadaptés. Les études prédictives conduites jusqu’à maintenant ont permis de déterminer que les différents types proposés par cette typologie se distinguent sur différents facteurs de risque du décrochage d’ordre individuel et environnemental. Toutefois, il n’est pas connu si ces types de décrocheurs potentiels se distinguent des adolescents non à risque de décrocher sur un facteur important, soit les traits de personnalité. Cette étude visait donc à évaluer si les traits de personnalité des adolescents (Ouverture, Extraversion, Contrôle, Amabilité et Stabilité émotionnelle) permettaient de prédire l’appartenance aux quatre types de décrocheurs potentiels proposés par Janosz et ses collègues (2000), en contrôlant l’effet de plusieurs autres facteurs de risque classique du décrochage. Les données provenaient de l’étude Stratégie d’Intervention Agir Autrement (SIAA), qui compte plus de 40 000 adolescents provenant de 69 écoles secondaires au Québec. L’échantillon qui a été utilisé dans cette étude (N = 4980) était composé d’élèves de 14 à 16 ans évalués en 2006-2007. Les adolescents ont rempli des questionnaires en groupe durant une période de classe. Différents modèles de régression logistique multinomiale contrôlant pour la nature hiérarchique des données ont confirmé que les traits de personnalité ont prédit l’appartenance à différents types de décrocheurs, et ce, au-delà de l’effet de plusieurs facteurs de risque classiques du décrochage scolaire. Ces résultats suggèrent que les théories du décrochage scolaire pourraient intégrer les traits de personnalité et que ces derniers pourraient être utilisés pour le dépistage des adolescents à risque de décrochage. / Adolescents’ school dropout is an alarming phenomenon which has several negative consequences for the youth themselves and for society as a whole. Empirical studies outlined the importance of considering school dropouts as a group of adolescents displaying heterogeneous profiles. Consequently, a number of researchers proposed typologies of school dropouts during adolescence, including Janosz (1994; Janosz, Le Blanc, Boulerice, & Tremblay 2000). Using three indicators of adolescents’ school adaptation (school engagement, school indiscipline, and academic achievement), Janosz identified four types of potential school dropouts, namely the Quiets, the Disengaged, the Low-achievers, and the Maladjusted. Predictive studies conducted to date showed that these different types proposed by Janosz can be distinguished on different classical individual and environmental risk factors of school dropout. However, it is not know if these potential school dropout types can be distinguished on an important factor, namely personality traits. Thus, this study aimed at evaluating if adolescents’ personality traits (Openness, Extraversion, Conscientiousness, Agreeableness, and Emotional stability) could predict membership in the four school dropout types proposed by Janosz et al. (2000), controlling for the effect of several classical risk factors of school dropout. Data were drawn from the New Approaches New Solutions (NANS) longitudinal study, which counts over 40 000 adolescents from 69 high school in Quebec (Canada). The sample that was used in this study (N = 4980) was composed of pupils aged 14 to 16 years assessed in 2006-2007. Adolescents filled out questionnaires in group during a class period. Different multinomial logistic regression models controlling for the hierarchical nature of the data confirmed that personality traits predicted membership in the different dropout types, and this, over and above the effect of several classical risk factors of school dropout. The results suggest that theories of school dropout could integrate personality traits and also that they could be used for screening adolescents at risk of dropping out of high school.

How does the satisfaction (or the lack of satisfaction) of the innate need to have meaningful interpersonal relationships affects behavioural self-regulation? How does having/lacking interpersonal relatedness impact one’s perception of future interpersonal relationships? This doctoral dissertation aimed to answer these two fundamental questions by integrating the views of two complementary theories, need to belong theory (NBT; Baumeister & Leary, 1995) and self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000). Using a series of two laboratory experiments and one longitudinal study, this thesis examined the effects of social exclusion and inclusion on satisfaction of basic psychological needs, self-determined motivation, and self-regulation of behaviours. In Study 1 (N=72), social exclusion and inclusion were manipulated in order to examine their effects on the satisfaction of the three basic psychological needs proposed by SDT, that is the needs for autonomy, competence, and relatedness. Findings from this first experiment revealed that social exclusion decreases satisfaction of the three needs, whereas social inclusion increases satisfaction of these needs when compared to the control condition. Furthermore, significant differences were found between the exclusion condition and the inclusion condition for the reported levels of satisfaction of the needs for competence and relatedness. The effects of social exclusion and inclusion on basic needs satisfaction were further investigated in Study 2 (N=70); also, the second study examined how self-determined motivation and behavioural self-regulation are affected. More specifically, it tested whether participants’ persistence at a laboratory task, as well as their intentions for a future peer interaction (intentions to compete against a peer participant and intentions to collaborate with a peer participant) are influenced by social exclusion and inclusion, through the meditating effects of basic needs satisfaction and self-determined motivation. The results suggested that social exclusion, via the effects of basic needs and motivation decreases peer collaboration, whereas social inclusion was shown to have an opposite effect on peer collaboration. The effect of condition via the mediating effects of basic needs satisfaction and motivation failed to predict persistence at the task and peer competition. Lastly, Study 3 (N=624) assessed naturally occurring social exclusion and inclusion in a population of junior high school students. This third study investigated the independent contributions of SDT and NBT in the prediction of academic motivation and high school dropout. Peer relatedness, perceived needs support from parents, and perceived needs support from teachers were examined as potential predictors of academic motivation and high school dropout. Findings suggested that peer relatedness plays an important role in the prediction of academic motivation, but, that perceived needs support from parents and perceived needs support from teachers are stronger predictors of that outcome. Results from this study also revealed that peer relatedness contributes to the prediction of high school dropout, beyond what can be explained by academic motivation, perceived needs support from parents, and perceived needs support from teachers. However, perceived needs support from parents was shown to be the most essential predictor of high school dropout. In sum, findings from this doctoral dissertation suggested that social exclusion has detrimental effects on one’s motivation and behavioural self-regulation. In contrast, social inclusion fosters social support which promotes satisfaction of the basic psychological needs, self-determined motivation, and successful self-regulation. This doctoral thesis contributed to the application of SDT and NBT by comparing elements of the two complementary frameworks. It also offered an original contribution to research on social exclusion and inclusion by examining their impacts on self-determined motivation, and basic needs satisfaction, as well as testing them in both the laboratory setting and the natural setting.

No description available.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-02T21:42:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MariaSuzumura.pdf: 706697 bytes, checksum: a5215671394f378e3bc9750e769da2fc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-30 / In the business world, companies are continuously searching for strategic differences and seeking human talent in increasingly competent professionals. Competence is related to performance and can be trained and developed according to the activities and the work performed. Education for work becomes more and more important as it increases its role in the dynamics of modern society which requires continuous updating of knowledge and seeks to reduce evasion from courses as one of its challenges. This research seeks to understand school dropout based on the wage gap between groups of students who dropped out school and those who finished their courses, among other issues. Data were collected between freshman students in ten mid-level technical courses at a state technical school in the city of São Paulo between 2009 and 2011. Researches support the conclusion that graduates achieve better wages then dropouts, the average wage of those who managed to graduate being 16.6pc higher than that of dropout students. Most students state that work is the main cause of their school evasion. We highlight the presence of public policies for the educational credit among respondents, as 34.8 pc the sample had scholarships, PROUNI or educational credit FIES. / No mundo dos negócios as organizações colocam-se numa procura contínua por diferenciações estratégicas e buscam o talento humano em profissionais cada vez mais competentes. A competência está relacionada ao desempenho e pode ser treinada e desenvolvida de acordo com as atividades e o trabalho prestado. A educação para o trabalho adquire maior importância à medida que aumenta seu papel na dinâmica da sociedade moderna que exige atualização contínua dos saberes e busca reduzir a evasão dos cursos como um de seus desafios. Esta pesquisa procura compreender a evasão escolar a partir da diferença salarial entre grupos de estudantes que abandonaram e finalizaram o curso, entre outras análises. Os dados foram coletados entre alunos ingressantes em dez cursos técnicos de nível médio de uma escola técnica estadual na cidade de São Paulo entre os anos 2009 e 2011. A pesquisa permite concluir que os alunos formados conseguem melhores salários que os evadidos, sendo a média dos salários dos que conseguiram se formar superior em 16,6% à média salarial dos evadidos. A maioria dos alunos evadidos aponta o trabalho como principal causa da evasão escolar. Evidencia-se a presença das políticas públicas para o crédito educacional entre os respondentes, já que 34,8% da amostra possuem bolsas de estudo, do PROUNI ou do crédito educativo do FIES.

Submitted by Viviane Lima da Cunha (viviane@biblioteca.ufpb.br) on 2016-09-08T14:18:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 3428449 bytes, checksum: 544eef068f9e49e0791709843ab4da8d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-08T14:18:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 3428449 bytes, checksum: 544eef068f9e49e0791709843ab4da8d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-11-25 / This study was based on references that deal with the historical context of Professional Education (MANFREDI, 2002) and Professional Qualification in Brazil (PRESTES and OLOPADE, 2009) placing the National Program for Access to Technical Education and Employment (PRONATEC) in this scenario; of issues related to school dropout and to permanence (DORE et al., 2014), as well as the processes of organizational learning (SILVA, 2009) related to educational management (CASTRO, 2007). The theme proposed has been chosen for the personal and professional interest of the researcher to understand with a more systemic look, the organizational learning processes and their developments in strategies that aim at guaranteeing the permanence and the fight against school dropout. This work aimed at analyzing the educational management strategies articulated by the team manager of PRONATEC at IFPB in João Pessoa Campus, departing from the organizational learning processes related to issues of school dropout and permanence as part of initial and continuing training courses. The research isa descriptive and exploratory methodological procedure of quantitative and qualitative nature. Data collection was carried out through bibliographical research, questionnaire and semi-structured interviews, the last two having been applied to 02 (two) coordinators and 13 (thirteen) supervisors of the Program. In order to interpretthe results, the technique of content analysis has been used. After the interpretations, it has been noticed that from the point of view of all the respondents, the dropouts exist primarily due to external factors and that the internal factors of the João Pessoa Campus have strengthened students permanence. With regards to learning, the individual and group levels were highly emphasized by respondents, featuring the categories of information search, observation, discussion and socialization; in relation to the organizational level it was detected a slight perception of effectiveness; however, interorganizational learning emerged more evidently in the speeches of the coordinators. By fostering the analysis of educational management strategies related to school evasion and permanence, it has been concluded that the team, by means of the learning acquired, developed practices that greatly contributed to improving the panorama of school dropout and permanence over the investigated period and that there is an emerging need to improve the links between the four levels of learning.With this research, it is expected to contribute for the management of the program to understand the relevance of the structuring of the learning processes, in order to map out strategies that provide better quantitative results, especially qualitative, mainly related to school permanence. / O estudo ancorou-se em referências que tratam do contexto histórico da Educação Profissional (MANFREDI, 2002) e Qualificação Profissional no Brasil (PRESTES E VÉRAS, 2009), situando o Programa Nacional de Acesso ao Ensino Técnico e Emprego (PRONATEC) neste cenário; de questões relativas à evasão escolar e à permanência (DORE et al, 2014), como também os processos de aprendizagem organizacional (SILVA, 2009) relacionados à gestão educacional (CASTRO,2007). A temática proposta foi escolhida por interesse pessoal e profissional do pesquisador de compreender com um olhar mais sistêmico os processos de aprendizagem organizacional e seus desdobramentos em estratégias que visam à garantia da permanência e ao combate à evasão. Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar as estratégias de gestão educacional articuladas pela equipe gestora do PRONATEC no IFPB Campus João Pessoa, a partir dos processos de aprendizagem organizacional relacionados às questões da evasão escolar e permanência no âmbito dos cursos de formação inicial e continuada. Tratou-se de uma pesquisa com procedimento metodológico descritivo e exploratório e natureza quanti-qualitativa. A coleta de dados ocorreu por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica, questionário e entrevistas semiestruturadas, estes dois últimos aplicados a 02 (dois) coordenadores e 13 (treze) supervisores do programa. Para interpretar os resultados, utilizou-se a técnica de análise de conteúdos. Após as interpretações, percebeu-se que no olhar de todos os entrevistados, a evasão existe principalmente em decorrência de fatores externos, e que os fatores internos do Campus João Pessoa potencializaram a permanência do estudante. Quanto às aprendizagens, os níveis, individual e de grupo foram bastante evidenciados pelos pesquisados, destaque para as categorias de busca de informações, observação, discussão e socialização; no que se refere ao nível organizacional, detectou-se uma mínima percepção de efetividade; já a aprendizagem interorganizacional, surgiu de forma mais evidente nas falas dos coordenadores. Ao promover a análise das estratégias de gestão educacional relacionadas à evasão e à permanência, concluiu-se que a equipe do programa, por meio das aprendizagens adquiridas, desenvolveu práticas que muito contribuíram para melhoria do panorama de evasão escolar e da permanência ao longo do período pesquisado e que há uma necessidade emergente de aperfeiçoamento da articulação entre os quatro níveis de aprendizagem. Com esta pesquisa, espera-se contribuir para que a gestão do programa compreenda a relevância da estruturação dos processos de aprendizagem, a fim de traçar estratégias que propiciem melhores resultados quantitativos, sobretudo qualitativos, principalmente relacionados à permanência escolar

nÃo hà / Tendo em vista os reconhecidos benefÃcios sociais e econÃmicos advindos da educaÃÃo, tanto em nÃvel individual quanto agregado, identificar os fatores que causam os problemas de evasÃo e repetÃncia escolar tem persistido como ponto importante na agenda de pesquisadores, seja de paÃses em desenvolvimento ou desenvolvidos. Nesse sentido, este estudo objetivou identificar os determinantes da evasÃo e da repetÃncia escolar no ensino mÃdio das escolas pÃblicas do CearÃ. Para tanto, foi utilizada a base de dados longitudinal do Sistema de AvaliaÃÃo Permanente da EducaÃÃo BÃsica (SPAECE) de 2008, acompanhada de 2009 a 2011, sobre a qual se construiu um modelo logÃstico multinÃvel que incorpora a natureza hierÃrquica dos dados, subdivididos em nÃveis de alunos e de escolas. Os resultados indicam a importÃncia do Programa Bolsa FamÃlia para a reduÃÃo da probabilidade, tanto para a ocorrÃncia de evasÃo, quanto de repetÃncia escolar. AlÃm disso, dentre os fatores que tÃm a maior influÃncia no aumento das chances de o aluno deixar a escola, estÃo o desinteresse pelos estudos e a persistÃncia de repetÃncia em anos anteriores. Sendo este Ãltimo, junto com o atraso escolar, os principais determinantes da retenÃÃo dos alunos cearenses. Uma vez que essas escolas possuem infraestruturas semelhantes, a intervenÃÃo dos educadores deve estar atrelada à motivaÃÃo dos alunos pelos estudos, atravÃs de medidas pedagÃgicas que os envolvam e os alertem efetivamente sobre os benefÃcios sociais e econÃmicos advindos pela acumulaÃÃo de educaÃÃo a mÃdio e longo prazo, tal como ocorre nos paÃses desenvolvidos. / Considering the overall benefits from education, the dropouts and school failures bring about severe consequences for economic progress and welfare of the population. The purpose of this study was to identify the determinants for the occurrence of such problems in public high schools of the State of CearÃ. For doing this, a longitudinal database of SPAECE of 2008, extended to 2009-2011, is applied to a multilevel logistic model on a hierarchical basis, which is divided in two dimensions: school and students. It is found evidence that factors associated with both the students themselves and their familiesâ status affects significantly the chances for dropouts and school failures. While the cash transfer (Bolsa FamÃlia) to studentâs household is an important mechanism to reduce the probability of dropout and school failure, the lack of students' dedications in school activities and persistency of failures are the main deficiencies for increasing the chances of dropouts from school. Since the sampled schools have similar infrastructure, the intervention of educators must be driven to student motivation in scholar activities, through educational measures that call for their attention and warn them effectively on the social and economic benefits arising from the accumulation of education in the medium and long term, as it occurs in developed countries.