The evaluation of design iceberg impact loads for offshore structures and the influence of hydrodynamic effects on impact loads are examined. Important hydrodynamic effects include iceberg added mass, wave-induced oscillatory iceberg motions, and the influence of a large structure on the surrounding flow field and subsequent velocities of approaching icebergs. The significance of these phenomena has been investigated using a two-body numerical diffraction model and through a series of experiments modelling the drift of various sized icebergs driven by waves and currents approaching a large offshore structure. Relevant findings from the hydrodynamic studies have been incorporated into two probabilistic models which can be used to determine design iceberg collision events with a structure based on either iceberg kinetic energy upon impact or global sliding force acting on the structure. Load exceedence probabilities from the kinetic energy and sliding force models are evaluated using the second-order reliability method. Output from the probabilistic models can be used to determine design collision parameters and to assess whether more sophisticated modelling of various impact processes is required. The influence of the structure on velocities of approaching icebergs is shown to be significant when the structure horizontal dimension is greater than twice the iceberg dimension. As expected, wave-induced oscillatory motions dominate the collision velocity for smaller icebergs but have a negligible effect on velocity for larger icebergs. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate

The Antarctic sea ice region is relatively stable in extent from year to year and sees little long-term variability, the primary driver for its seasonal advance and retreat being the seasonal changes in advection of heat through the atmosphere. However, observations show a slight positive trend in its extent over recent decades. Recent work has built on the hypothesis that anomalous poleward moisture fluxes could be seen in concert with anomalous decreases in sea ice variability by providing evidence of this correlation in the Arctic sea ice region. In order to test this hypothesis and to investigate the atmospheric circulation patterns during states of low sea ice concentration in the Antarctic, records of de-seasonalized sea ice concentration anomalies are made for five regions of the Antarctic polar region, and composite distributions of variables of atmospheric circulation for the lowest 10th percentile of months with low mean sea ice concentration are compiled. Meridional moisture fluxes from these composites are tested against the entire population of meridional moisture fluxes using the Student's t-test with a confidence level of 95%, and the differences from the overall mean fields for atmospheric conditions during these cases are calculated. Of the five regions, the Ross Sea, Weddell Sea, and Pacific Ocean sections exhibit significant local moisture flux anomalies in the direction of the pole during months with low sea ice concentration, supporting the hypothesis that moisture transport into the polar region is important for the variability of sea ice in the Antarctic. The Bellingshausen - Amundsen Seas and Indian Ocean sectors show weak local signals of poleward moisture fluxes, indicating that there are other varying factors affecting the sea ice more heavily in these regions. Mean geopotential height anomalies during months with anomalously low sea ice concentration indicate that the Weddell Sea and Pacific Ocean regions are coupled with the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode, while low sea ice concentration in the Indian Ocean as well as the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas regions show concurrence with the negative phase. With general circulation models predicting a persistence of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in a warming climate, it is important to understand how the Antarctic sea ice region responds to the phase of this oscillation.

As the decline in Arctic sea ice extent makes this region more accessible, the need is increasing for effective seasonal sea ice forecasting to facilitate operational planning. Recently, coupled global climate models (CGCMs) have been used to address the need for effective sea ice forecasting on seasonal time scales. This thesis assesses the operational utility of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) for seasonal sea ice forecasting. This assessment consists of two separate studies. The first uses hindcasting to analyze the skill of two versions of CanSIPS, as well as an intermediate version, on the pan-Arctic as well as regional scales. This approach allows for an overall assessment of the system's skill in addition to providing insight with regards to the features in each version which improved that skill. This study finds that the use of a new initialization procedure for sea ice concentration and thickness improved forecast skill on the pan-Arctic scale as well as in the Central Arctic, Barents Sea, Laptev Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. This study also shows that the substitution of one of the constituent models in the system improved forecast skill on the pan-Arctic scale as well as in the GIN, Barents, Kara, East Siberian, Chukchi, Bering, and Beaufort Seas. Overall, the new version of CanSIPS was found to be generally more skillful than previous versions. The second study conducts a potential predictability experiment on CanCM4, the constituent CGCM common to all versions of CanSIPS considered in this study. This study follows the methodology introduced by \cite{Bushuk2018} which allows for a more complete assessment of the dependency of potential predictability on initialization month than previous studies and for comparisons to be made between potential predictability and operational skill. This analysis is again done on both the pan-Arctic and regional scale. The findings of this experiment show that CanCM4 has relatively low potential predictability relative to other models and explains results previously presented in a multi-model study by \cite{Day2016}. Further, the characteristics of CanCM4's potential predictability share similarities with other models including greater predictability at longer lead times for winter target months than summer target months, greater predictability in the Atlantic sector than the Pacific sector, and the presence of the spring predictability barrier on the pan-Arctic scale as well as in several regions. The comparison of operational skill to potential predictability provides a general overview of the ``skill gap" which may be closed with improvements in initialization procedures and model physics. This comparison does, however, come with some caveats due to differences in the statistical characteristics of the perfect model and the climate system it represents. Together, the operational skill assessment of different versions of CanSIPS and the potential predictability experiment conducted on one of its constituent models, CanCM4, demonstrate that while room for improvement exists, the recent development of this forecast system has clearly increased its operational utility as a seasonal sea ice forecasting tool. / Graduate

In the recent past it has become evident that the Earth's climate is changing, and that human activity play a significant role in these changes. One of the regions where the ongoing climate change has been most evident is in the Arctic: the surface temperature has increased twice as much in this region as compared to the global average, in addition, a significant decline in the Arctic sea-ice extent has been observed in the past decades. Climate model studies of past climates are important tools to understand the ongoing climate change and how the Earth's climate may respond to changes in the forcing. This thesis includes studies of the Arctic climate in simulations of the early and mid-Holocene, 9 000 and 6 000 years before present. Changes in the Earth's orbital parameters resulted in increased summer insolation as compared to present day, especially at high northern latitudes. Geological data imply that the surface temperatures in the early to mid Holocene were similar to those projected for the near future. In addition, the geological data implies that the Arctic sea ice cover was significantly reduced in this period. This makes the early to mid-Holocene an interesting period to study with respect to the changes observed in the region at present. Several model studies of the mid-Holocene have been performed through the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP1 to PMIP3). The simulations have been performed with climate models of varying complexity, from atmosphere-only models in the first phase to fully coupled models with the same resolution as used for future climate simulations in the third phase. The first part of this thesis investigates the simulated sea ice in the pre-industrial and mid-Holocene simulations included in the PMIP2 and PMIP3 ensemble. As the complexity of the models increases, the models simulate smaller extents and thinner sea ice in the Arctic; the sea-ice extent suggested by the proxy data for the mid-Holocene is however not reproduced by the majority of the models. One possible explanation for the discrepancy between the simulated and reconstructed Arctic sea ice extent is missing or inadequate representations of important processes. The representation of atmospheric aerosol direct and indirect effects in past climates is a candidate process. Previous studies of deeper time periods have concluded that the representation of the direct and indirect effects of the atmospheric aerosols can influence the simulated climates, and reduce the equator to pole temperature gradient in past warm climates, in better agreement with reconstructions. The second part of the thesis investigates the influence of aerosol on the early Holocene climate. The indirect effect of reduced aerosol concentrations as compared to the present day is found to cause an amplification of the warming, especially in the Arctic region. A better agreement with reconstructed Arctic sea ice extent is thus achieved. / Under senare tid har det blivit uppenbart att jordens klimat håller på att förändras, och att mänsklig aktivitet spelar en viktig roll för dessa ändringar. Ett av de områden där den pägäende klimatfärändringen har varit tydligast är Arktis: temperaturen vid ytan har ökat dubbelt så mycket här jämfört med det globala genomsnittet. Dessutom har man observerat en betydande nedgång i havsisens utbredning i Arktis de senaste decennierna. Simuleringar gjorda med klimatmodeller av forntida klimat är viktiga verktyg för att förstå de pågående klimatförändringarna och hur jordens klimat påverkas av ändringar i klimatsystemets drivningar. Denna avhandling består av studier av det arktiska klimatet i modellsimuleringar av tidig och mid-holocen, ca. 9 000 och 6 000 år före nutid. Förändringar i jordens bana kring solen resulterade i en ökad sommar-solinstrålning jämfört med nutid, särskilt vid höga nordliga breddgrader. Geologiska data antyder att jordens temperatur vid ytan under denna period kan jämföras med dem vi förväntar för den närmaste framtiden. Vidare indikerar geologiska data att havsisen i Arktisk var kraftigt reducerad under denna period. Detta gör tidig till mid-holocen till en intressant period att studera, med avseende på de förändringar som för närvarande har observerats i området. Flera modellstudier av mitt-holocen har utförts i de olika faserna av Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP1 till PMIP3). Simuleringarna har utförts med klimatmodeller av varierande komplexitet, från atmosfärsmodeller i den första fasen, till fullt kopplade modeller med hög rumslig upplösning i den tredje fasen. I den första delen av denna avhandling undersöks den simulerade havsisen i de förindustriella och mid-holocen simuleringar som ingår i PMIP2 och PMIP3 ensemblerna. Modellerna simulerar mindre utbredning och tunnare havsis i Arktis i den senare PMIP ensemblen, men fortfarande återskapar inte modellerna generelt den havsisutbredning som de geologiska data indikerar. En möjlig förklaring till skillnaderna mellan den simulerade och rekonstruerade havsisutsträckningen kan vara att viktiga processer i klimatsystemet saknas eller inte är tillräckligt väl beskrivna i modellerna. Beskrivningen av atmosfäriska aerosoler och dess effekter på klimatet är en möjlig kandidatprocess. Från studier av forntida varma tidsperioder har man dragit slutsatsen att beskrivningen av aerosoleffekterna påverkar det simulerade klimatet. Bland annat kan man minska temperaturgradienten mellan ekvator och polerna i tidigare varma klimat, vilket bättre överensstämmer med temperaturrekonstruktioner. Den andra delen av avhandlingen undersöker påverkan av aerosoler på klimatet under tidig holocen. Den indirekta effekten som följer av lägre aerosolkoncentrationer i tidig holocen jämfört med i dag, visar sig orsaka en förstärkning av uppvärmningen, särskilt i det arktiska områet, vilket stämmer bättre med havsisrekonstruktioner från denna period. / <p>QC 20130910</p>

No description available.

Sea ice in the Antarctic Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) plays a pivotal role in regulating heat and energy exchange between oceanic and atmospheric systems, which drive global climate. Current understanding of Southern Ocean sea ice dynamics is poor with temporal and spatial gaps in critical seasonal data-sets. The lack of in situ environmental and wave data from the MIZ in the Antarctic region drove the development of UCT's first generation of in situ ice-tethered measurement platform as part of a larger UCT and NRF SANAP project on realistic modelling of the Marginal Ice Zone in the changing Southern Ocean (MISO). This thesis focuses on the firmware development for the device and the design process taken to obtain key measurements for understanding sea ice dynamics and increasing sensing capabilities in the Southern Ocean. The buoy was required to survive the Antarctic climate and contained a global positioning system, temperature sensor, digital barometer and inertial measurement unit to measure waves-in-ice. Power was supplied to the device by a power supply unit consisting of commercial-grade batteries in series with a temperature-resistant low dropout regulator, and a power sensor to monitor the module. A satellite modem transmitted data through the Iridium satellite network. Finally, Flash chips provided permanent data storage. Firmware and peripheral driver files were written in C for an STMicroelectronics STM32L4 Arm-based microcontroller. To optimise the firmware for low power consumption, inactive sensors were placed in power-saving mode and the processor was put to sleep during periods of no sampling activity. The first device deployment took place during the SCALE winter expedition in July 2019. Two devices were deployed on ice floes to test their performance in remote conditions. However, due to mechanical and power errors, the devices failed shortly after deployment. A third device was placed on the deck of SA Aghulas II during the expedition and successfully survived for one week while continuously transmitting GPS coordinates and ambient temperature. The second generation featured subsequent improvements to the mechanical robustness and sensing capabilities of the device. However, due to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, subsequent Antarctic expeditions were cancelled resulting in the final platform evaluation taking place on land. The device demonstrates a proof of concept for a low-cost, ice-tethered autonomous sensing device. However, additional improvements are required to overcome severe bandwidth and power constraints.

Home to the world’s longest coastline, Canada has experienced devastating economic and social from coastal flooding events. While there have been a variety of mitigation methods employed over the years to increase a community’s resistance to coastal hazards, it is unrealistic to think that there exists a solution to guarantee a community’s safety under all possible flood hazards. Instead, the community’s efforts to raise their resistance to flood hazards should be augmented with careful planning and management to increase a community’s resilience to flood hazards, allowing them to recover quickly after a natural disaster. The first step in elevating a community’s resilience is to better understand the expected hazards that it may experience. This thesis presents two unique case studies to better understand the flooding hazards present on the Canadian coastline. A large-scale numerical model that accounts for the presence of ice was developed to investigate storm surges in Canada’s western Arctic. It was found that the quality of the climatic forcing data used, ERA5, was poor in capturing peak wind speeds, but could be compensated for by using elevated wind drag coefficients. The use of non-traditional high-water marks such as driftwood lines were validated and were shown to significantly alter expected flood return periods compared to the return periods estimated from only the incomplete tide gauge measurements present on the Arctic coastline. The second case study extends the results of a tsunami hydrodynamic simulation on Canada’s Pacific coastline through a life safety assessment. The performance between an agent-based and GIS-based approach to modelling tsunami evacuation were directly compared and were shown to yield different magnitudes in fatality rate and facility demand, but similar trends. Both models agreed on a mitigation option that can significantly reduce the loss of life during a tsunami.

Thesis (Sc.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology, 1980. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Vita. / Bibliography: leaves 315-325. / by John Merrill Toole. / Sc.D.

The Arctic climate has changed significantly in the last decades, experiencing a dramatic loss of sea ice and stronger than global warming. The Arctic surface temperature and the growth or melt of sea ice is determined by the local surface energy budget. In this context, clouds are of essential importance as they strongly interact with the radiative fluxes and modulate the surface energy budget depending on their properties, the surface types, and atmospheric thermodynamics. For the quantification of changes in the radiative energy budget (REB) associated with the presence or absence of clouds, the concept of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is commonly used. This concept is defined as the differences between the REB in cloudy and cloud-free conditions, two atmospheric states which can not be observed at the same location and time. Consequently, either radiative transfer simulations or observations in both states have to be related, both of which complicate the derivation of CRF. A review of available studies and their approaches to derive the CRF reveals conceptual differences as well as deficiencies in the handling of radiative processes related to the surface albedo. These findings call into question the current state of CRF assessment in the Arctic based on the few available studies, but also their comparability. By combining atmospheric radiative transfer simulations with a snow albedo model, two processes that control the surface albedo during the transition from cloud-free to cloudy conditions and their role in the derivation of CRF are discussed. The broadband surface albedo of snow surfaces typically increases in the presence of clouds due to a spectral weighting of downward irradiance toward shorter wavelengths. For more absorbing surface types such as white ice and melt ponds, which are common in summer, there is a strong shift between the albedo of direct and diffuse illuminated surface, which diminishes the surface albedo depending on the cloud optical thickness and solar zenith angle. In this thesis, a hypothesis on the impact of those surface-albedo--cloud interactions on the annual cycle of shortwave CRF is discussed, but an application to inner Arctic conditions remains an open issue. An improved method to derive the shortwave CRF is proposed and an application to two airborne campaigns in the marginal sea ice zone northwest of Svalbard (Norway) illustrates the role of surface-albedo--cloud interactions in the Arctic in spring and early summer. For the longwave CRF, conceptual differences and the general interpretation of the different CRF estimates are discussed and illustrated for a case study. Radiative transfer simulations of a rarely observed annual cycle of thermodynamic profiles in the inner Arctic are used to study both longwave CRF approaches and the impact of thermodynamic profiles on the longwave CRF. Making use of airborne low-level flights in the MIZ and other available datasets, common seasonal radiative states on sea ice and case studies of warm air intrusions and cold air outbreaks are illustrated. The CRF is analyzed as a function of the observed cloud/surface regime, which is extended by radiative transfer simulations characterizing the conditions in this region and seasons.

No description available.