Pagrindinis šio darbo tikslas yra sukurti energijos tiekimo saugumo trikdžių scenarijų matematinį modelį, kuriuo būtų galima modeliuoti įvairių galimų energetinių trikdžių scenarijus. Priklausomai nuo trikdžio sudėtingumo lygio jis gali neturėti visiškai jokios įtakos ir pasekmių arba priešingai – gali turėti labai didelę įtaką ir labai sunkias pasekmes energijos tiekimo saugumui. Todėl energetinio trikdžio įtaka ir pasekmės suskirstomi balais: nuo 0 (nėra pasekmių) iki 5 balų (labai sunkios pasekmės). Nagrinėjama to trikdžio įtaka įvairiems valstybės sektoriams: ekonominiui, socialiniui ir politiniui. Energetinio trikdžio įtaka ir sukeltos pasekmės ekonominiui, socialiniui ir politiniui sektoriams ir suprantamas kaip atskiras scenarijus. Energetiniam trikdžiui buvo suteikti parametrai ir su įvairiais parametrų rinkiniais sumodeliuoti 100 scenarijų. Iš tų scenarijų išrinktas pats tikėtiniausias, nustatyti sunkiausi (kritiniai) bei lengviausi (sukeliantys mažas pasekmes) scenarijai. Taip pat suskaičiuojamos tokių scenarijų tikimybės bei trikdžių pasirodymo tikimybės. Tam naudojami Markovo grandinės bei procesai ir tikimybiniai skirstiniai. / The main objective of this paper is to develop a mathematical model of energy supply disturbances for modelling energy supply disturbance scenarios. The level of energy supply disturbance depends on the impact it does to energy security of supply. The level of energy supply disturbance expressible with points: from 0 points (no impact) to 5 points (very heavy impact). It is analysed impact of this disturbance to different sectors of state: economical, social and political. The impact and caused damage of energy supply disturbance to economical, social and political sectors is understandable like a different scenario. Energy supply disturbance depends on different parameters. Scenarios of disturbances were modeled considering three parameters. For comparison there were developed 100 different long term energy supply disturbance scenarios. There were selected most common, most heavy (critical) and easiest scenarios, evaluated such scenarios probabilities and energy supply disturbance probabilities. In thia paper was used Markov chains and processes, probability distributions.

Energy and its policy has been a priority for the EU since its establishment. The EU indicates the competitiveness, sustainability and security of supply to be the core pillars of energy policy, which guide energy projects and their implementations in the EU territory. Nonetheless, disagreements and different opinions on the natural gas transmission pipeline Nord Stream 2 reveal that the solidarity in terms of energy policy is not apparent. Hence, the purpose of this study is to reveal how the framings of the project are constructed by the most vocal actors - the EU institutions, Germany, Poland and Russia – in order to indicate implications of the frames to the future of the project and the EUenergy policy. The purpose of the study is achieved by adopting energy security concept as theoretical lens and frame analysis as a primary method of research. The study reveals that the actors frame the project in terms of energy security dimensions and energy security logics. The study concludes that the actors prioritize security of supply pillar to the largest extent and thus it poses complications to attain a currently core element of the EU energy policy – sustainability, and implement the NS2 project due to the lack of solidarity among actors.

Water-resource managers are facing unprecedented challenges in accommodating the large uncertainties associated with climate change in their planning decisions. Integration of climate risk information is a pre-requisite for water resources planning under a changing climate, yet this information is often presented outside the decision-making context and in a way which is not relevant for the decision at hand. Furthermore, there is a lack of approaches that explicitly evaluate the impact of nonstationary climate change on decision-relevant metrics and variables. This thesis describes novel methods for incorporating uncertain information on climate change in water resources decision-making and estimating climate change-related risks in water resources systems. The main hypotheses of this thesis are that: (1) shifting away from planning approaches based on abstract supply-demand balance metrics towards risk-based approaches that quantify the frequency and severity of observable outcomes of concern to water users, such as water shortages, can help decision-makers establish preferences among actions and identify cost and climate risk reduction trade-offs (2) adopting risk-based planning methods allows water managers to characterize and account for different sources of uncertainty in the water planning process and to understand their impact on outcomes of value and decisions. To test these hypotheses, this thesis presents an analytic approach for (1) incorporating nonstationary climate change projections and other uncertain factors related to demand changes into water resources decision-making, (2) understanding trade-offs between benefits of climate risk-reduction and cost of climate change adaptation, and (3) characterizing water supply vulnerability to unprecedented drought conditions. The approach is applied to London's urban water supply system located in the Thames river basin, south-east of England. Results from this thesis demonstrate how a systematic characterization of uncertainties related to future hydro-climatic conditions can help decision-makers compare and choose between a range of possible water management options and decide upon the scale and timing of implementation that meet decision-makers' risk tolerability. Additionally, results show the benefits of combining climate information with vulnerability analysis to test decisions' robustness to unprecedented drought conditions. The application of the proposed methods to the London urban water supply system suggests that the risks of exceeding reliability targets in the future will increase if no further supply or demand side actions were to be taken. Results from the case study also show that changes in demand due to population growth could have greater impacts on water security than climate change and that small reductions in climate-related risk may come at significantly higher costs. It should be stressed that the results from the case study are based on a simplified representation of London's water supply system and that they should be further tested with the full system model employed by the water utility which implements more complex operational rules.

The thesis analyses how the system of oil and fuel storage was created, and applied in Sweden during the Cold War. The investigation focuses on the period 1938-1998 and considers the vital role of fossil fuel during a period when Sweden declared neutrality and independence. This period also includes a phase of divestment of some of the state-owned stores. The project is partly based on original research in several archives including the Swedish Geological Survey, the War Archives of Sweden, the archive of the city of Stockholm, and relevant state agencies. Fuel was a means to security of supply, and how current policies interacted, as well as the extent to which it was perceived as a vital part of the nation’s current security politics. In particular, how the storage of oil, on a large scale, demanded adjustments of the physical Scandinavian bedrock, which in turn required new technology is examined. The study follows the forthcoming of both an organisation and a new set of knowledge illustrating how the practice of storing oil, in itself an unstable fluid changing characteristics over time, created a surrounding social network. The thesis also reviews the environmental awareness and ensuing concerns relating to the stores. The oil storage created a whole range of new specialists and experts, as well as academic fields, which all converged around the storage of oil. The long-term storage required regulations and monitoring, resulting in creation of new areas of expertise both within the companies obliged to store oil, and also within relevant state agencies. In addition, supervising authorities developed, typically governmental agencies, of which one was also assigned to dismantling the stores. The thesis discusses the political climate motivating the dismantling of the stores relating to contingency planning and civil defence, tracing the discourse until today when stores are now being re-activated.

En stor andel av Sveriges bostäder och lokaler är beroende av fjärrvärmeleveransen. Energimyndigheten i Sverige påtalar att störningar och avbrott i fjärrvärmevärmeleveransen kan leda till allvarliga konsekvenser för individer och samhällsviktiga funktioner. Höga krav ställs på fjärrvärmesystemen som förväntas kunna leverera en trygg energiförsörjning till alla kunder, oavsett tid på dygnet. En viktig åtgärd för att öka leveranskvaliteten i fjärrvärmesystem är att säkerställa tillgängligheten på produktionsanläggningar.   Energibolaget Sandviken Energi AB (SEAB) arbetar aktivt med frågeställningar som rör leveranssäkerhet i fjärrvärmesystem. SEAB har genom energikonsultbolaget FVB Sverige AB anlitat en praktiserande student för att undersöka hur leveranssäkerheten i Sandvikens fjärrvärmenät kan öka med hjälp av två externa samt en mobil panncentral. I studien riktades fokuset på prioriterade kunder, leveranskvalitet samt risker i fjärrvärmesystemet.   Tillvägagångssättet i studien karaktäriseras av en simulering och optimeringsstrategi till vilket beräkningsverktyget NetSim använts. Simuleringarna baserades delvis på bedömda risker i fjärrvärmenätet, framtagna i intervjuer med nyckelpersoner inom SEAB. Utifrån riskbedömningen har sex olika driftscenarier konstruerats och simulerats i ett flertal olika temperaturfall. Scenarierna representerar driften av produktionsenheterna och innehåller bland annat ett basscenario då alla produktionsenheter i nätet fanns tillgängliga. I resterande scenarier simulerades konsekvenserna av driftstörningar i anläggningens olika produktionsenheter.   Resultaten från studien visade på en fullgod värmeleverans i alla temperaturfall i fyra av sex driftscenarier. I två av driftscenarierna var den tillförda värmeeffekten för låg för att tillgodose kundernas behov fullt ut. En av slutsatserna som drogs var att när huvudproduktionen i nätet ej fanns tillgänglig, räckte inte värmeeffekten i nätet till för att försörja alla kunder vid alla temperaturfall. / A large proportion of Sweden's homes and premises depend on district heating delivery. The Swedish Energy Agency points out that disruptions and interruptions in district heating supply can lead to serious consequences for individuals and socially important functions. An important measure to increase the delivery quality in district heating systems is to ensure the availability of production facilities.    Through the energy consulting company FVB Sverige AB, Sandviken Energi AB (SEAB) has hired a practicing student to investigate how delivery security in Sandvikens district heating network can increase with the help of two external and a mobile boiler plant. The study focused on prioritized customers, delivery quality and risks in the district heating system.    The approach in the study is characterized by a simulation and optimization strategy for which the calculation tool NetSim has been used. The simulations were partly based on assessed risks in the district heating network, developed in interviews with key people within SEAB. Based on the risk assessment, six different operating scenarios have been constructed and simulated in a number of different temperature cases. The scenarios represent the operation of the production units and contain, among other things, a base scenario when all production units in the network were available. In the remaining scenarios, the consequences of operational disruptions in the plant's various production units were simulated.    The results from the study showed a satisfactory heat delivery in all temperature cases in four of six operating scenarios. In two of the operating scenarios, the added heat output was too low to fully meet customers' needs. One of the conclusions drawn was that when the main production in the network was not available, the heat output in the network was not sufficient to supply all customers in all temperature cases.

Alors que la construction communautaire prend ses racines dans l'adoption par six États européens du traité portant création de la Communauté du charbon et de l'acier (CECA), il faudra attendre 2009, pour qu'une politique de l'énergie soit introduite dans le droit primaire par le traité de Lisbonne. En dépit de cette consécration tardive, l'activisme de l'Union dans le domaine de l'énergie est incontestable, bien qu'il ne soit pas appréhendé uniformément au sein de la doctrine. Une partie d'entre elle estime qu'il n'existe toujours pas de politique énergétique européenne, tandis que l'autre considère que cette politique européenne existe mais qu'elle ne mérite pas, le qualificatif de« politique commune ». Ce débat doctrinal, qui s'insère dans le cadre de la théorie juridique des politiques en droit de l'Union, renvoie à une interrogation sur la nature et la portée exacte des interventions de l'Union dans le domaine de l'énergie. En effet l'analyse des actions entreprises par l'Union dans le secteur de l'énergie, depuis le traité CECA jusqu'à l'aune des années 90, révèle une montée en puissance de ces dernières, qui se traduit par une première mutation visant à substituer aux nombreuses actions partielles une première ébauche de vision globalisée des problématiques énergétiques au sein de la Communauté et ce, alors même qu'aucune politique de l'énergie n'avait été introduite dans le TCE. Les Etats membres étaient, en effet, très réticents à reconnaître une compétence à l'Union dans ce domaine, et ce pour différentes raisons liées aux multiples dimensions, économique, sociale, environnementale et sécuritaire d'une politique énergétique ainsi qu'à leur dépendance énergétique très diversifiée. Cet embryon de politique énergétique, enserrée dans des contraintes particulièrement fortes trouvera donc son ancrage juridique dans des bases juridiques indirectes ou subsidiaires et en particulier dans celles relatives à l'établissement d'un marché intérieur (Partie I). Pourtant, l'énergie est loin d'être un « objet économique ordinaire » et la soumission de ce secteur aux seules règles du marché pourrait générer de multiples menaces, notamment pour l'accomplissement des missions de service public, les exigences environnementales ou encore la sécurité de l'approvisionnement. Il aurait donc fallu, à l'occasion de l'introduction dans les traités d'une politique de l'énergie, mieux reconnaître la spécificité de ce secteur et prévoir en la matière la mise en place d'une politique véritablement commune. Or, le droit primaire hérité du traité de Lisbonne déçoit quelque peu : le nouvel article 194 du TFUE relatif à l'énergie, parait faire le choix d'une forme de statu quo et semble même remettre en cause certains aspects de cette politique. Pourtant, la dynamique communautaire parait enclenchée. Que ce soit dans le cadre du marché intérieur de l'énergie, via la régulation commune des marchés et la prise en compte de ses spécificités (sociale, sécuritaire, environnementale) ou dans celui du volet externe, au travers le renforcement des relations énergétiques avec les Etats tiers, la politique énergétique européenne s'oriente de plus en plus vers une vraie politique commune (Partie II). / The European Union construction has its origins in adoption by six European States of the ECSC Treaty. However, it will be necessary to wait until 2009, when a policy in the field of energy was integrated in the primary law by the treaty of Lisbon. Despite this late consecration, the activism of the Union in the field of energy is evident, even if it is far from being uniformly comprehended within the doctrine. One part of them considers, that the European energy policy still does not exist, while others consider that the European policy exists but that it should not be qualified as a “common policy”. This doctrinal debate, which is inserted as a part of the legal theory of polices in the European Union law, addresses a question on the nature and precise significance of the intervention of the Union in energy field.En fact, the analysis of actions undertaken by the EU in the energy sector since the ECSC Treaty up to the beginning of the nineties, reveals an increasing power of these last, ending up as a first mutation trying to substitute a number of partial actions by a first global vision of energetic policies within the Community. This was taking place without any energy policy introduction the TEC. The Member states were in reality very reluctant to acknowledge that the EU has a competence in this domain. This was due to numerous reasons linked to multiple dimensions: economic, social, environmental, and security issues of an energy policy, as well as their energetic dependence, which was quite varying. This embryo of an energy policy, inserted in particularly strong constraints, finds therefore its legal frame in indirect or subsidiary legal bases and especially in those relating to the establishment of the internal market (Part I). However, energy is far from being an “ordinary economic good” and the submission of this sector to market rules could generate multiple threats, notably for public service missions, environmental requirements or the security of supply. It would therefore have been necessary, on the occasion of introduction in the treaties of an energy policy, to better admit the specificity of this sector and to envisage in this field the establishment of a real common policy. But the primary law inherited from Lisbon Treaty is disappointing: the new article 194 of the TFUE relating to energy, seems to make the choice of status quo and even seems to put back some aspects of this policy. However, the Community dynamism is functioning. And either as a part of the internal market of energy, via common regulation of markets and taking into consideration of its specific characteristics (social, security, environmental), or in the one of external aspect, by reinforcing energy relations with third States, the European energy policy turns progressively into a real common policy (Part II).

Syftet med vår uppsats har varit att undersöka vilka möjligheter det civila näringslivet har att stödja Försvarsmakten med reparations- och underhållstjänst av försvarsmaktsgemensam materiel under en säkerhetspolitisk kris. Utvecklingen av vårt Totalförsvars har återigen blivit en aktuell fråga, kopplat till det säkerhetspolitiska läget i Europa idag. Det svenska Totalförsvaret syftar till att det civila försvaret tillsammans med Försvarsmakten gemensamt ska stärka samhällets motståndskraft. Ett starkt och robust civilt försvar är en förutsättning för att samhället ska kunna stödja Försvarsmakten under kriser och krig. Metoden som har varit vår ledstång under studien bygger på en induktiv ansats med ett explorativt förhållningssätt. Själva datainsamlingen och bearbetningen av den har varit kvalitativ, där datainsamlingen har genomförts genom semistrukturerade intervjuer av respondenter från både näringslivet och Försvarsmakten. De insamlade data i form av intervjuunderlag har analyserats, kodats och grupperats i teman enligt metoden tematisk analys. Resultatet från studien visar på att Sverige inte längre har den förmåga till krisberedskap som vi hade i slutet av 1990-talet och där regeringen slutligen upphävde förordningen kring motorreparationstjänsten. Vårt insamlade underlag visar dock på att såväl statliga offentliga utredningar, som myndigheter och det civila näringslivet ser ett behov och möjlighet till att kunna återskapa någon form av samverkan mellan civila företag och Försvarsmakten för att öka tillgängligheten på försvarsmaktsgemensam materiel. Studien har kommit fram till att Sverige har förutsättningar för att kunna bygga upp en krisberedskap kring reparations- och underhållstjänst i likhet med den vi hade före juni 2007. I denna nya krisberedskap har civila företag en uppgift i att stödja Försvarsmakten med reparations- och underhållstjänst av försvarsmaktsgemensam materiel vid kriser, väpnat angrepp och krig. / The purpose of this thesis has been to investigate what opportunities the commercial industry has to support the Armed Forces with repair and maintenance services of armed forces common equipment during a security policy crisis. The development of our Total Defence has once again become a topical issue, linked to the security policy situation in Europe today. The Swedish Total Defence aims to ensure that civil defence, together with the Swedish Armed Forces, jointly strengthens the overall resilience of society. A strong and robust civil defence is a prerequisite for society to be able to support the Armed Forces during crises and war. The method that has been our guidance during the study is based on an inductive approach with an exploratory approach. The data collection and its processing has been qualitative, where the data collection has been carried out through semi-structured interviews of respondents from both the commercial industry and the Swedish Armed Forces. The collected data in the form of interview data has been analysed, coded and grouped into themes according to the method of thematic analysis. The results of the study show that Sweden no longer has the capacity for crisis preparedness that we had in the late 1990s and where the government in the end repealed the regulation on the Total Defence repair and maintenance service. However, our collected data shows that both government public inquiries, as well as authorities and the commercial industry, once again see a need and opportunity to recreate some form of collaboration between civilian companies and the Armed Forces in order to increase the availability of joint armed forces equipment. The study has concluded that Sweden has the prerequisites to be able to establish a repair and maintenance service similar to the one we had before June 2007. Where civilian companies have a role in supporting the Armed Forces with the repair and maintenance service of armed forces common equipment in the event of crises, armed attack or war.

Free and Open-Source Software (FOSS) has become an integral part of the software supply chain in the past decade. Various entities (automated tools and humans) are involved at different stages of the software supply chain. Some actions that occur in the chain may result in vulnerabilities or malicious code injected in a published artifact distributed in a package repository. At the end of the software supply chain, developers or end-users may consume the resulting artifacts altered in transit, including benign and malicious injection. This dissertation starts from the first link in the software supply chain, ‘developers’. Since many developers do not update their vulnerable software libraries, thus exposing the user of their code to security risks. To understand how they choose, manage and update the libraries, packages, and other Open-Source Software (OSS) that become the building blocks of companies’ completed products consumed by end-users, twenty-five semi-structured interviews were conducted with developers of both large and small-medium enterprises in nine countries. All interviews were transcribed, coded, and analyzed according to applied thematic analysis. Although there are many observations about developers’ attitudes on selecting dependencies for their projects, additional quantitative work is needed to validate whether behavior matches or whether there is a gap. Therefore, we provide an extensive empirical analysis of twelve quality and popularity factors that should explain the corresponding popularity (adoption) of PyPI packages was conducted using our tool called py2src. At the end of the software supply chain, software libraries (or packages) are usually downloaded directly from the package registries via package dependency management systems under the comfortable assumption that no discrepancies are introduced in the last mile between the source code and their respective packages. However, such discrepancies might be introduced by manual or automated build tools (e.g., metadata, Python bytecode files) or for evil purposes (malicious code injects). To identify differences between the published Python packages in PyPI and the source code stored on Github, we developed a new approach called LastPyMile . Our approach has been shown to be promising to integrate within the current package dependency management systems or company workflow for vetting packages at a minimal cost. With the ever-increasing numbers of software bugs and security vulnerabilities, the burden of secure software supply chain management on developers and project owners increases. Although automated program repair approaches promise to reduce the burden of bug-fixing tasks by suggesting likely correct patches for software bugs, little is known about the practical aspects of using APR tools, such as how long one should wait for a tool to generate a bug fix. To provide a realistic evaluation of five state-of-the-art APR tools, 221 bugs from 44 open-source Java projects were run within a reasonable developers’ time and effort.

Depuis 2001 et la recomposition des équilibres de puissance, l'Inde s'affirme comme l'un des acteurs qui compte dans un espace international de plus en plus multipolaire. Les mouvements de fond actuels provoquent une redistribution de cette puissance imposant de nouvelles alliances et de nouveaux jeux de pouvoirs. L'Inde n'est pas étrangère à cette tendance et encore plus depuis l'arrivée au pouvoir, en 2014, de l'actuel Premier ministre, Narendra Modi. Ce dernier conduit une politique extérieure ambitieuse pour que son pays accède à un statut de puissance mondiale. C'est dans ce cadre que se pose notre problématique qui est de savoir dans quelle mesure la place de l'Afrique dans la politique étrangère indienne permet-elle justement à l'Inde de parvenir à se hisser à ce statut de puissance. Pour y répondre, cette thèse investigue trois directions. D'abord, la place de l'océan Indien dans la relation indo-africaine doit rendre compte du rôle de l'Afrique dans la volonté indienne de faire de cet océan un espace pacifique et sécurisé sur lequel l'Inde puisse être un acteur incontournable face à des acteurs politiques puissants et hétérogènes. Ensuite, cette thèse s'attache à déterminer le rôle que l'Afrique joue dans la volonté de l'Inde d'être une puissance ayant une capacité d'influence politique sur la scène internationale au travers des instances internationales, de ses relations bilatérales avec les États africains et de la diaspora indienne installée dans ces pays. Enfin, cette recherche de statut passe par le champ économique et la nécessaire évaluation de l'empreinte économique que l'Inde souhaite imprimer en Afrique pour mieux asseoir ses capacités d'influence. Cette étude doit permettre de donner un éclairage sur la politique extérieure indienne à l'heure où les États-Unis réévaluent leur implication dans l'océan Indien, où la Chine met en place la « One Belt, One Road » et où l'Inde et le Japon viennent de s'unir pour proposer un nouveau partenariat à l'Afrique. / Since 2001 and the reshuffling of the balance of power, India has become one of the influential actors in an increasingly multipolar international context. The current groundswells are reshuffling powers between Nations in shaping new alliances and new power games. India is, more than ever, involved in this trend since the current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, came to power in 2014. He conducts an ambitious foreign policy as a means to make his country a global and respected power. The context of the issue detailed in this document is: to what extent does Africa's place in India's foreign policy enables India to reach this status of power? This thesis investigates the following three themes: Firstly, the Indian Ocean's place in the Indo-African relationship should reflect Africa's role in India's will to make the Indian Ocean region a peaceful and secured space in which India is a decisive player in front of powerful and heterogeneous political actors. Secondly, this thesis focuses on assessing Africa's role in India's initiatives to be an influential player on politics on the international agenda through international bodies, its bilateral relations with African states and the Indian diaspora settled down in these countries. Thirdly, India's search for that particular status goes through the economic area and the assessment of India's economic footprint in Africa to better establish its influence on that Continent. This study tries to shed the light on India's foreign policy while the United States are reassessing their involvement in the Indian Ocean, and while China is setting up its "One Belt, One Road" and India and Japan have just come together to propose a new partnership to Africa.