Tesis por compendio / Water is an essential resource from an environmental, biological, economic or social point of view. In basin management, the irregular distribution in time and in space of this resource is well known. This issue is worsened by extreme climate conditions, generating drought periods or flood events. For both situations, optimal management is necessary. In one case, different water uses should be supplied efficiently using the available surface and groundwater resources. In another case, the most important goal is to avoid damages in flood areas, including the loss of human lives, but also to optimize the revenue of energy production in hydropower plants, or in other uses. The approach presented in this thesis proposes to obtain optimal management rules in water resource systems. With this aim, evolutionary algorithms were combined with simulation models. The first ones, as optimization tools, are responsible for guiding the process iterations. In each iteration, a new management rule is defined in the simulation model, which is computed to comprehend the situation of the system after applying this new management. For testing the proposed methodology, four evolutionary algorithms were assessed combining them with two simulation models. The methodology was implemented in four real case studies. This thesis is presented as a compendium of five manuscripts: three scientific papers published in journals (which are indexed in the Journal Citation Report), another under review, and the last manuscript from Conference Proceedings. In the first manuscript, the Pikaia optimization algorithm was combined with the network flow SIMGES simulation model for obtaining four different types of optimal management rules in the Júcar River Basin. In addition, the parameters of the Pikaia algorithm were also analyzed to identify the best combination of them to use in the optimization process. In the second scientific paper, the multi-objective NSGA-II algorithm was assessed to obtain a parametric management rule in the Mijares River basin. In this case, the same simulation model was linked with the evolutionary algorithm. In the Conference manuscript, an in-depth analysis of the Tirso-Flumendosa-Campidano (TFM) system using different scenarios and comparing three water simulation models for water resources management was developed. The third published manuscript presented the assessment and comparison of two evolutionary algorithms for obtaining optimal rules in the TFM system using SIMGES model. The algorithms assessed were the SCE-UA and the Scatter Search. In this research paper, the parameters of both algorithms were also analyzed as it was done with the Pikaia algorithm. The management rules in the three first manuscripts were focused to avoid or minimize deficits in urban and agrarian demands and, in some case studies, also to minimize the water pumped. Finally, in the last document, two of the algorithms used in previous manuscripts were assessed, the mono-objective SCE-UA and the multi-objective NSGA-II. For this research, the algorithms were combined with RS MINERVE software to manage flood events in Visp River basin minimizing damages in risk areas and losses in hydropower plants. Results reached in the five manuscripts demonstrate the validity of the approach. In all the case studies and with the different evolutionary algorithms assessed, the obtained management rules achieved a better system management than the base scenario of each case. These results usually mean a decrease of the economic costs in the management of water resources. However, comparing the four algorithms assessed, SCE-UA algorithm proved to be the most efficient due to the different stop/convergence criteria and its formulation. Nevertheless, NSGA-II is the most recommended due to its multi-objective search focus on the enhancement of different objectives with the same importance where the decision makers can make the best decision for the management of the system. / El agua es un recurso esencial desde el punto de vista ambiental, biológico, económico o social. En la gestión de cuencas, es bien conocido que la distribución del recurso en el tiempo y el espacio es irregular. Este problema se agrava debido a condiciones climáticas extremas, generando períodos de sequía o inundaciones. Para ambas situaciones, una gestión óptima es necesaria. En un caso, el suministro de agua a los diferentes usos del sistema debe realizarte eficientemente empleando los recursos disponibles, tanto superficiales como subterráneos. En el otro caso, el objetivo más importante es evitar daños en las zonas de inundación, incluyendo la pérdida de vidas humanas, pero al mismo tiempo, optimizar los beneficios de centrales hidroeléctricas, o de otros usos. El enfoque presentado en esta tesis propone la obtención de reglas de gestión óptimas en sistemas reales de recursos hídricos. Con este objetivo, se combinaron algoritmos evolutivos con modelos de simulación. Los primeros, como herramientas de optimización, encargados de guiar las iteraciones del proceso. En cada iteración se define una nueva regla de gestión en el modelo de simulación, que se evalúa para conocer la situación del sistema después de aplicar esta nueva gestión. Para probar la metodología propuesta, se evaluaron cuatro algoritmos evolutivos combinándolos con dos modelos de simulación. La metodología se implementó en cuatro casos de estudio reales. Esta tesis se presenta como un compendio de cinco publicaciones: tres de ellas en revistas indexadas en el Journal Citation Report, otra en revisión y la última como publicación de un congreso. En el primer manuscrito, el algoritmo de optimización Pikaia se combinó con el modelo de simulación SIMGES para obtener reglas de gestión óptimas en la cuenca del río Júcar. Además, se analizaron los parámetros del algoritmo para identificar la mejor combinación de los mismos en el proceso de optimización. El segundo artículo evaluó el algoritmo multi-objetivo NSGA-II para obtener una regla de gestión paramétrica en la cuenca del río Mijares. En el trabajo presentado en el congreso se desarrolló un análisis en profundidad del sistema Tirso-Flumendosa-Campidano utilizando diferentes escenarios y comparando tres modelos de simulación para la gestión de los recursos hídricos. En el tercer manuscrito publicado se evaluó y comparó dos algoritmos evolutivos (SCE-UA y Scatter Search) para obtener reglas de gestión óptimas en el sistema Tirso-Flumendosa-Campidano. En dicha investigación también se analizaron los parámetros de ambos algoritmos. Las reglas de gestión de estas cuatro publicaciones se enfocaron en evitar o minimizar los déficits de las demandas urbanas y agrarias y, en ciertos casos, también en minimizar el caudal bombeado, utilizando para ello el modelo de simulación SIMGES. Finalmente, en la última publicación se evaluó el algoritmo mono-objetivo SCE-UA y el multi-objetivo NSGA-II. Para esta investigación, los algoritmos se combinaron con el software RS MINERVE para gestionar los eventos de inundación en la cuenca del río Visp minimizando los daños en las zonas de riesgo y las pérdidas en las centrales hidroeléctricas. Los resultados obtenidos en las cinco publicaciones demuestran la validez del enfoque. En todos los casos de estudio y, con los diferentes algoritmos evolutivos evaluados, las reglas de gestión obtenidas lograron una mejor gestión del sistema que el escenario base de cada caso. Estos resultados suelen representar una disminución de los costes económicos en la gestión de los recursos hídricos. Comparando los cuatro algoritmos, el SCE-UA demostró ser el más eficiente debido a los diferentes criterios de convergencia. No obstante, el NSGA-II es el más recomendado debido a su búsqueda multi-objetivo enfocada en la mejora, con la misma importancia, de diferentes objetivos, donde los tomadores de decisiones pueden sel / L'aigua és un recurs essencial des del punt de vista ambiental, biològic, econòmic o social. En la gestió de conques, és ben conegut que la distribució del recurs en el temps i l'espai és irregular. Este problema s'agreuja a causa de condicions climàtiques extremes, generant períodes de sequera o inundacions. Per a ambdúes situacions, una gestió òptima és necessària. En un cas, el subministrament d'aigua als diferents usos del sistema ha de realitzar-se eficientment utilitzant els recursos disponibles, tant superficials com subterranis. En l'altre cas, l'objectiu més important és evitar danys en les zones d'inundació, incloent la pèrdua de vides humanes, però al mateix temps, optimitzar els beneficis de centrals hidroelèctriques, o d'altres usos. La proposta d'esta tesi és l'obtenció de regles de gestió òptimes en sistemes reals de recursos hídrics. Amb este objectiu, es van combinar algoritmes evolutius amb models de simulació. Els primers, com a ferramentes d'optimització, encarregats de guiar les iteracions del procés. En cada iteració es definix una nova regla de gestió en el model de simulació, que s'avalua per a conéixer la situació del sistema després d'aplicar esta nova gestió. Per a provar la metodologia proposada, es van avaluar quatre algoritmes evolutius combinant-los amb dos models de simulació. La metodologia es va implementar en quatre casos d'estudi reals. Esta tesi es presenta com un compendi de cinc publicacions: tres d'elles en revistes indexades en el Journal Citation Report, una altra en revisió i l'última com a publicació d'un congrés. En el primer manuscrit, l'algoritme d'optimització Pikaia es va combinar amb el model de simulació SIMGES per a obtindre regles de gestió òptimes en la conca del riu Xúquer. A més, es van analitzar els paràmetres de l'algoritme per a identificar la millor combinació dels mateixos en el procés d'optimització. El segon article va avaluar l'algoritme multi-objectiu NSGA-II per a obtindre una regla de gestió paramètrica en la conca del riu Millars. En el treball presentat en el congrés es va desenvolupar una anàlisi en profunditat del sistema Tirso-Flumendosa-Campidano utilitzant diferents escenaris i comparant tres models de simulació per a la gestió dels recursos hídrics. En el tercer manuscrit publicat es va avaluar i va comparar dos algoritmes evolutius (SCE-UA i Scatter Search) per a obtindre regles de gestió òptimes en el sistema Tirso-Flumendosa-Campidano. En dita investigació també es van analitzar els paràmetres d'ambdós algoritmes. Les regles de gestió d'estes quatre publicacions es van enfocar a evitar o minimitzar els dèficits de les demandes urbanes i agràries i, en certs casos, també a minimitzar el cabal bombejat, utilitzant per a això el model de simulació SIMGES. Finalment, en l'última publicació es va avaluar l'algoritme mono-objectiu SCE-UA i el multi-objetiu NSGA-II. Per a esta investigació, els algoritmes es van combinar amb el programa RS MINERVE per a gestionar els esdeveniments d'inundació en la conca del riu Visp minimitzant els danys en les zones de risc i les pèrdues en les centrals hidroelèctriques. Els resultats obtinguts en les cinc publicacions demostren la validesa de la metodología. En tots els casos d'estudi i, amb els diferents algoritmes evolutius avaluats, les regles de gestió obtingudes van aconseguir una millor gestió del sistema que l'escenari base de cada cas. Estos resultats solen representar una disminució dels costos econòmics en la gestió dels recursos hídrics. Comparant els quatre algoritmes, el SCE-UA va demostrar ser el més eficient a causa dels diferents criteris de convergència. No obstant això, el NSGA-II és el més recomanat a causa de la seua cerca multi-objectiu enfocada en la millora, amb la mateixa importància, de diferents objectius, on els decisors poden seleccionar la millor opció per a la gestió del sistema. / Lerma Elvira, N. (2017). Assessment and implementation of evolutionary algorithms for optimal management rules design in water resources systems [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/90547 / Compendio

This thesis presents a performance assessment of flight operations in the North Atlantic Organized Track System (OTS) using the Global Oceanic Model. The main contributions of the study are: a) improvements to the logic of the Global Oceanic Model; b) prediction of benefits among various aircraft separation minima and operational policies to assign flights to tracks in the OTS system; and c) forecast of OTS traffic over North Atlantic from 2020 to 2040. The preliminary results show that a concept of operation with longitudinal separation minima of 15 nm and information of the flight cost matrix provides average fuel savings of 93 kilograms per flight using 2020 traffic. The fuel savings increase to 170 kilograms per flight using traffic levels expected in the year 2040. A new operational track assignment routine is developed and it could save around 40 kilograms per flight compared with the current concept of operations. The study results show a shortage of capacity of the Organized Track System in the future. The analysis shows that the OTS configuration used today and in 2020 is unable to accommodate the traffic projected in 2040. The analysis concludes that more tracks will be needed to maintain an acceptable level of service. / MS / The North Atlantic Organized Track System (OTS) are directional tracks for aircraft to fly between North America and Europe. This thesis presents a performance assessment of flight operations in the North Atlantic using a computer simulation model -- Global Oceanic Model. The main contributions of the study are: a) improvements to the logic of the Global Oceanic Model; b) prediction of benefits among various aircraft separation minima and operational policies to assign flights to tracks in the OTS system; and c) forecast of OTS traffic over Atlantic from 2020 to 2040. The preliminary results show that the predicted average fuel savings in the year 2020 are 93 kilograms per flight when aircraft are separated 15 nm longitudinally and assigned to tracks based on the flight cost matrix. The average fuel savings increase to 170 kilograms per flight using traffic levels expected in the year 2040. Additionally, a new operational track assignment routine is developed and it could save around 40 kilograms per flight compared with the current concept of operations. In conclusion, the Organized Track System configuration used today may be unable to accommodate the traffic projected in the year 2040. The shortage of capacity of the OTS indicates that more tracks will be needed to maintain an acceptable level of service.

The U.S. pelagic longline fishery catches 98% of domestic swordfish landings but is also one of the three fisheries most affecting federally protected sea turtles (Crowder and Myers 2001, Witherington et al 2009). Bycatch by fisheries is considered the main anthropogenic threat to sea turtles (NRC 1990). Accurate and precise bycatch estimates are imperative for sea turtle conservation and appropriate fishery management. However, estimation is complicated by only 8% observer coverage of fishing and data that are hierarchical in structure (i.e., multiple sets per trip), zero-heavy (i.e., bycatch is rare), and often overdispersed (i.e., larger variance than expected). Therefore, I evaluated two predominant bycatch estimation methods, the delta-lognormal method and generalized linear models, and investigated improvements in uncertainty incorporation. I constructed a simulation model to evaluate bycatch estimation at two spatial scales under ten spatial models of sea turtle, fishing set, and observer distributions. Results indicated that distributing observers relative to fishing effort and using the delta-lognormal-strata method was most appropriate. The delta-lognormal-strata 95% confidence interval (CI) was wider than statistically appropriate. The delta-lognormal-all sets pooled 95% CI was narrower but simulated bycatch was above the CI too frequently. Thus, I developed a bycatch estimate risk distribution to incorporate uncertainty in bycatch estimates. It gives managers access to the entire distribution of bycatch estimates and their choice of any risk level. Results support the management agency's observer distribution and estimation method but suggest a new procedure to incorporate uncertainty. This study is also informative for many similar datasets. / Master of Science

Det globala energibehovet ökar ständigt och i takt med detta ökar även faran för global uppvärmning bortom en hanterbar nivå och därför stramas kraven åt gällande minskade utsläpp av växthusgaser. EU har som följd av detta enats om en uppsättning klimatmål som benämns 20/20/20-målen som syftar till att minska växthusgasutsläppen med 20 procent, jämfört med 1990 års nivåer, sänka energianvändningen med 20 procent, höja andelen förnybar energi samt höja andelen biobränsle i transportsektorn med 10 procent.  Sektorn bostäder och service står enligt energimyndigheten för nära 40 procent av Sveriges totala energianvändning och blir därför ett område som är mycket intressant när det gäller att implementera energieffektiviseringsåtgärder.  Det kommunala företaget AB Gavlegårdarna ska under perioden 2016-2018 renovera ett tiotal punkthus i stadsdelen Östra Sätra i Gävle. Husen är typiska miljonprogramshus och beroende på val av effektiviseringsåtgärder kommer behovet av köpt värme samt el att förändras, dvs deras lastprofiler på det energisystemet. Dessa förändringar kommer i föreliggande arbete att simuleras och studeras i simuleringsprogrammet IDA ICE (IDA Indoor Climate and Energy) version 4.6.2, där resultaten jämförs och valideras med befintlig statistik.  Husen som berörs av upprustningen är av typen punkthus som definieras som friliggande hus med trapphus i mitten med lägenheter runt om.  Punkthusen var vanliga på 1940 talet och byggdes då oftast med 4-5 våningar. Även om huskropparna står fritt är de oftast placerade i grupp för att skapa en områdeskänsla. De aktuella byggnaderna är i stort lika varandra där avsaknad av källarplan hos vissa av husen är den tydligaste skillnaden, i övrigt består konstruktionen av markplan plus 4 våningsplan och ett vindsutrymme. Hus med källarplan rymmer totalt 29 lägenheter medan de övriga rymmer 27. Energisystemmodellen validerades samt modifierades att passa de renoverade husen. Resultatet har sedan använts för att beräkna områdets lastprofil gällande fjärrvärme vilket kan ses i nedanstående figur. Diagrammet visar lastkurvan både före och efter de energieffektiviserande åtgärderna implementerats.  Med hjälp utav de erhållna effektkurvorna kan områdets totala energianvändning jämföras före och efter implementering av energieffektiviseringsåtgärder. Resultatet visar att värmebehovet sjunker med 1,39 GWh. Appliceras detta på kraftvärmeproduktionen resulterar minskningen i 0,55 GWh lägre elproduktion som måste importeras till systemet. Importeras elen från kolkondens kan detta ge upphov till ökade koldioxidutsläpp med 512 ton koldioxidekvivalenter per år jämfört med 2,13 ton CO2 ekvivalenter om elen tas från svensk elmix.

This diploma thesis deals with the question of simulation models. It is divided into the theoretical and practical part. The aim of the opening part, in which the fundamental theory is defined, is to familiarize the readers with the ideas and advantages which simulation models can offer. In its practical part the work already focuses on the particular simulation project which should point out the possibilities of utilization of these models in practice. The subject of this project is the simulation of the course of the cultural event in the O2 Arena stadium. The main goal of this project is creation of the authentic simulation model which would on the basis of the later analysis enable the elimination or optimalization of the predefined major problems that are connected with organizing big cultural events in this arena.

Traditionally, research on cross‐country skiing biomechanics is based mainly on experimental testing alone. Trying a different approach, this thesis explores the possibilities of using computational musculoskeletal biomechanics for cross‐country skiing. As far as the author knows, this has not been done before. Cross‐country skiing is both fast and powerful, and the whole body is used to generate movement. Consequently, the computational method used needs to be able to handle a full‐body model with lots of muscles. This thesis presents several simulation models created in the AnyBody Modeling System, which is based on inverse dynamics and static optimization. This method allows for measurementdriven full‐body models with hundreds of muscles and rigid body segments of all major body parts. A major result shown in the thesis is that with a good simulation model it is possible to predict muscle activation. Even though there is no claim of full validity of the simulation models, this result opens up a wide range of possibilities for computational musculoskeletal biomechanics in cross‐country skiing. Two example of new possibilities are shown in the thesis, finding antagonistic muscle pairs and muscle load distribution differences in different skiing styles. Being able to perform optimization studies and asking and answering “what if”‐questions really gives computational methods an edge compared to traditional testing. To conclude, a combination of computational and experimental methods seems to be the next logical step to increase the understanding of the biomechanics of crosscountry skiing. / Traditionellt har biomekaniska forskningsstudier av längdskidåkning baserats helt och hållet på experimentella metoder. För att prova ett annat angreppssätt undersöks i denna avhandling vilka möjligheter som beräkningsbaserad biomekanik kan ge för längdskidåkning. Så vida författaren vet, har detta inte gjorts tidigare. Längdskidåkning innehåller snabba och kraftfulla helkroppsrörelser och därför behövs en beräkningsmetod som kan hantera helkroppsmodeller med många muskler. Avhandlingen presenterar flera simuleringsmodeller skapade i AnyBody Modeling System, som baseras på inversdynamik och statisk optimering. Denna metod tillåter helkroppsmodeller med hundratals muskler och stelkroppssegment av de flesta kroppsdelarna. Ett resultat som avhandlingen visar är att med en bra simuleringsmodell är det möjligt att förutsäga muskelaktiviteten för en viss rörelse och belastning på kroppen. Även om ingen validering av simuleringsmodellen ges, så visar ändå resultatet att beräkningsbaserad biomekanik ger många nya möjligheter till forskningsstudier av längdskidåkning. Två exempel visas, hur muskelantagonister kan hittas samt hur lastfördelningen mellan musklerna förändras då skidåkaren förändrar stilen. Att kunna genomföra optimeringsstudier samt fråga och svara på ”vad händer om”‐ frågor ger beräkningsbaserad biomekanik en fördel i jämförelse med traditionell testning. Slutsatsen är att en kombination av beräkningsbaserade och experimentella metoder borde vara nästa steg för att addera insikt om längdskidåkningens biomekanik. / <p>Report code: LIU‐TEK‐LIC‐2008:4. On the day of the defence date the status of article V was: Submitted.</p>

Este trabalho está voltado à avaliação dos problemas do transporte intermodal sob efeito de restrições sazonais que, usualmente, não são consideradas na fase de planejamento e dimensionamento da frota. E, considerando a sobreposição de dois fatores sazonais restritivos ao longo da cadeia de transportes - a variação na produção de grãos ao longo do ano e a sazonalidade das cotas de nível d\'água nas hidrovias -, um modelo de simulação de eventos discretos mostra as impedâncias sofridas no sistema pela junção de fatores restritivos bem fortes. É possível avaliar o impacto dessas restrições não só no nível de utilização dos silos intermediários e silagem do porto, mas também no número de veículos necessários para fazer o transporte de commodities na região Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Em um sistema de transporte composto pelos modais rodoviário, hidroviário e marítimo, no qual o modelo de simulação abrange desde a produção nas fazendas, passando pelo transporte de caminhão até os armazéns intermediários, posteriormente com o transporte fluvial com destino ao porto para exportação. O presente estudo traz uma série de comparações entre cenários para avaliação dos gargalos existentes neste sistema de transporte intermodal, especialmente avaliando cenários com e sem as restrições sazonais, assim como análises de sensibilidade de performance de equipamentos de carregamento e descarregamento, nos quais a frota e os estoques necessários são substancialmente diferentes se a sazonalidade não for considerada. / This work focuses on the evaluation of the intermodal transport problems under the influence of seasonal constraints that are not usually considered on the phase of planning and sizing the fleet. Considering the superposition of two different seasonal factors along the transportation chain - first one the variation on grain production and the second one the level of water in the waterways throughout the year -, a discrete event simulation model was built to show the real effects of those constraints in the grain supply chain. So, it is possible to evaluate the impact of those constraints not only on the usage level of storages in this system, but also the number of vehicles required to transport this commodities from the Midwest of Brazil to the port. In a complex multimodal transportation system, the simulation model in this work includes roadways, waterways and seaways to transport all the cargo from farms to the final costumer. This study is composed by a number of scenarios to evaluate the bottlenecks in this intermodal transportation system, specially analyzing scenarios with and without seasonal constraints, as well as analysis of sensitivity of performance of equipment of loading and unloading, in which the fleet and the required stocks are substantially different if seasonality is not considered. In other words, it is possible to evaluate the risks involved when managers are making decisions if they do not take in consideration any of those seasonal constraints.

Over the past ten years, more than 4,000 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have helped to shed light on the genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases. In recent years, phenotyping of the samples has often gone beyond single traits and it has become common to record multi- to high-dimensional phenotypes for individu- als. Whilst these rich datasets offer the potential to analyse complex trait structures and pleiotropic effects at a genome-wide level, novel analytic challenges arise. This thesis summarises my research into genetic associations for high-dimensional phen- otype data. First, I developed a novel and computationally efficient approach for multivari- ate analysis of high-dimensional phenotypes based on linear mixed models, com- bined with bootstrapping (LiMMBo). Both in simulation studies and on real data, I demonstrate the statistical validity of LiMMBo and that it can scale to hundreds of phenotypes. I show the gain in power of multivariate analyses for high-dimensional phenotypes compared to univariate approaches, and illustrate that LiMMBo allows for detecting pleiotropy in a large number of phenotypic traits. Aside from their computational challenges in GWAS, the true dimensionality of very high-dimensional phenotypes is often unknown and lies hidden in high-dimen- sional space. Retaining maximum power for association studies of such phenotype data relies on using an appropriate phenotype representation. I systematically ana- lysed twelve unsupervised dimensionality reduction methods based on their per- formance in finding a robust phenotype representation in simulated data of different structure and size. I propose a stability criteria for choosing low-dimensional phen- otype representations and demonstrate that stable phenotypes can recover genetic associations. Finally, I analysed genetic variants for associations to high-dimensional cardiac phenotypes based on MRI data from 1,500 healthy individuals. I used an unsuper- vised approach to extract a low-dimensional representation of cardiac wall thickness and conducted a GWAS on this representation. In addition, I investigated genetic associations to a trabeculation phenotype generated from a supervised feature ex- traction approach on the cardiac MRI data. In summary, this thesis highlights and overcomes some of the challenges in per- forming genetic association studies on high-dimensional phenotypes. It describes new approaches for phenotype processing, and genotype to phenotype mapping for high-dimensional datasets, as well as providing new insights in the genetic structure of cardiac morphology in humans.

No gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, a bacia hidrográfica é considerada a unidade natural de gestão. Suas características físicas definem um espaço onde a água converge para uma saída comum. O desenvolvimento integrado de uma bacia, bem como os possíveis conflitos ocasionados por demandas concorrentes do mesmo recurso, devem ser administrados respeitando esse conceito de unidade. No caso específico da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Jaguari, existe uma crescente preocupação relacionada aos usos múltiplos da água superficial. O rio Jaguari, importante afluente do Paraíba do Sul no estado de São Paulo, tem suas águas represadas para geração de energia elétrica e regularização de vazões. Nos últimos anos, tem-se constatado um crescente rebaixamento dos níveis operacionais da represa do Jaguari. Segundo estudos da sociedade civil organizada local, a tendência é de esgotamento do reservatório em poucos anos. Este trabalho aborda a questão do rebaixamento dos níveis de Jaguari através da aplicação do software DHI Mike Basin 2000. Trata-se de um simulador genérico para sistemas de recursos hídricos, de ampla aplicação. A bacia do Jaguari é representada em um modelo matemático e são simulados quatro cenários distintos de usos de água na bacia. Verifica-se que o problema é real e requer uma intervenção multi-institucional para ser solucionado. / In the management of water resources, basin is naturally considered the administration unit. Its physical properties define a land space where water flows on the way to a common outlet. The integrated development of a basin, as well as potential conflicts resulted by divergent users should be managed under this unit concept. On Jaguari river basin, in state of São Paulo, Brazil, there is an emergent concern related to the multiplicity of water uses. Jaguari river, an important branch of Paraíba do Sul river in state of São Paulo is dammed for the generation of electricity and stream flow regulation. In last years, it has been observed an increasing reduction in Jaguari reservoir operational levels. According to local organizations\' studies, the reservoir trends to collapse in few years. The present dissertation holds a discussion about the reduction of water level trend in Jaguari reservoir, through the application of DHI MIKE BASIN 2000 software. It is a generic, very useful simulator for water resources systems. The Jaguari basin is represented by a mathematic model, simulated for four different water use scenarios. It is shown that the problem is real, and requires a multi-institutional intervention to be solved.

The thesis deals with the use of cloud computing to solve computationally intensive task. Simulation methods are employed to analyze the operation of the proposed system before putting it into operation. Cloud computing makes the functionality of modern data centers accessible to small businesses, cloud allows scaling up and scaling down of resource usage on an as-needed basis; moreover, without high initial investments and long-term commitments. The paper examines in detail the ways to adapt the currently most popular cloud environment of Amazon's Elastic Compute Cloud to the specific requirements of custom applications and suggests ways to automate the process of creation and customization of instance images. The automation and management of running applications in cloud environment is demonstrated on the example of geographic data processing and map generation application. The simulation model for running applications in the cloud is built and exploited to verify the ability of the proposed solutions to succeed in a production deployment.