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Simultaneous determination of Debt, Dividend, and Inside Ownership policies : Evidence from SwedenPersson, Rickard January 2014 (has links)
The main purpose of this thesis is to examine the simultaneous determination of debt, dividend, and inside ownership policies in Sweden. We apply a simultaneous equation model estimated with 3SLS. The results reveal a positive two-way causal relationship between debt and dividend polices. We also find a two-way causal relationship between inside ownership and dividend policies, but dividends affect inside ownership in a positive way while inside ownership affects dividends in a negative way. Further, we find a relationship between inside ownership and debt policies, but any causality appears to run from inside ownership to debt in a negative way. This study supports the notion that the convergence of interest and the entrenchment theory are not mutually exclusive. We also show that a SEM estimated with 3SLS is justified empirically over the OLS and that the difference between using 3SLS compared to 2SLS is negligible in our model.
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商業銀行資本適足率資訊內涵與資本調控問題之研究陳育成 Unknown Date (has links)
資本適足率(capital adequacy ratio,即實業界所稱之BIS比率)為金融界評估商銀風險之重要指標,在反映資本結構以至於倒閉風險的意義上,相較於財務分析常用的權益值對總資產比率,BIS比率應是一個更精確的指標。本研究先藉資本市場銀行股長天期窗口超額報酬率反映投資人所要求報酬中之風險貼水,探討投資人是否可以引用資本適足率衡量國內商銀的倒閉風險與流動性風險。此外,本研究亦針對壞帳費用與票券買賣損益兩項富裁量空間之科目,分析國內商業銀行策略性操縱帳面盈餘與資本問題。最後,就現行我國資本適足率規定之缺失,作進一步之檢討,並檢測調整部份風險性資產之風險權數後,對資本適足率解釋投資人所要求必要報酬間關係之影響。
實證結果發現,不論是商銀呈報金融主管機關之資本適足率,或是就銀行所發布資料,儘可能比照公訂資本適足率核算辦法所自行設算、不含資產負債表外風險性資產所計算之比值,甚至自行設算、僅考慮自有資本中之第一類資本(Tier 1 Capital)估算值,均與商銀股市超額報酬有顯著之負血關係,顯示資本適足率對投資人而言,屬攸關資訊,能幫助評估銀行倒閉風險,進而決定其所要求之必要報酬率。又國內商銀中,民營銀行股超額報酬對資本適足率之迴歸係數,較公營銀行更具負向關係,而民國八十一年後新成立之銀行對資本適足率之迴歸係數,亦較八十一年前成立之舊銀行更具負向關係,而景氣較蕭條時,資本適足率與報酬間之關係並未較繁榮期敏感。
在盈餘與資本調控部份,或因使用不同調控工具之成本差異,致使商業銀行在帳面資本不足時,傾向于增加提列壞帳費用;另一方面,銀行似乎為了損益平穩化之目的,而以多實現或少實現票券買賣損益作為調控當期盈餘之工具,此兩項潛在之盈餘調控工具,彼此間有著相互替代代,惟因實現票券買賣損益之成本因時而異,國內商業銀行引用此兩項工具相互替補的程度實隨資本市場榮枯而改變。在估算國內商銀壞帳費用不可裁量部份時,本研究發現以上期壞帳、本期逾催收款、應收匯兌承兌款及無擔保放款餘額估計壞帳,比過動國外文獻所採變數組更恰當。 / This thesis empirically examines the explanatory power of capital adequacy ratio (BIS ratio) to Taiwan's commercial bank long-windowed returns minus risk-free rates (hereafter excess return), investigating whether the ratio serves to measure the level of risk of these banks equity securities. Findings indicate the followings: (1) ceteris paribus, long-windowed bank returns negatively correlate with each and every measure of BIS ratio in this study. These results are consistent with the notion that capital adequacy ratio conveys relevant information regarding the bank shareholders risk; (2) required rate of security returns appears to be more (less) sensitive to the BIS ratio for banks founded after (prior to) 1992 and for non-state-owned (state-owned) commercial banks; (3) there is not corroborative evidence that macro-economic variables have incremental explanatory power to the regression coefficient for the BIS ratio.
Further, by identifying and examining the potential discretionary components of Taiwan's commercial bank loan loss provisions (LLPs) and securities gains and losses (RSGs), this study aims at exploring these banks' accruals management practices. Robust against various sensitivity tests, empirical findings support the notion that commercial banks strategically increase their LLPs to avoid unfavorable capital adequacy ratios. On the other hand, this study finds these banks smooth reported earnings via RSGs. Moreover, our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that LLPs and RSGs serve as substitutes for each other in commercial bank accruals management. However, the extent these banks exercise discretion via either measure varies with domestic capital market performance. For tests in this study, the specification of simultaneous equations outperforms the competing ordinary least square regression models.
This study also provides an innovative design for estimating bank loan loss provisions. As compared with competing designs, our model, which relates commercial bank LLPs to non-performing assets, unsecured loans, accrued acceptances and prior-period loan loss provisions, produce a more efficient predictor for Taiwan's commercial bank LLPs.
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Restrições ao crédito e a interdependência das decisões financeiras da firma : um estudo multipaísKirch, Guilherme January 2012 (has links)
O objetivo do presente estudo foi verificar empiricamente as implicações dos modelos desenvolvidos por Almeida e Campello (2007) e Acharya, Almeida e Campello (2007) em um contexto de simultaneidade entre as decisões financeiras da firma e no qual o impacto do ambiente legal sobre a capacidade de crédito da mesma fosse considerado. Para alcançar esse objetivo estimou-se um sistema de quatro equações simultâneas, que incorpora os avanços teóricos recentes no tocante as decisões financeiras da firma, para uma amostra de firmas de diversos países. Os resultados alcançados sugerem a rejeição empírica das implicações dos referidos modelos, visto que as diferenças esperadas entre as firmas classificadas como não restritas e classificadas como restritas não puderam ser confirmadas. Os resultados também sugerem que ignorar a simultaneidade que caracteriza as decisões financeiras da firma consiste em um erro de especificação que pode ter consequências sérias sobre as estimativas dos parâmetros e que as restrições financeiras manifestam-se em praticamente todas as firmas, possivelmente em intensidades diferentes. / The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the implications of the Almeida and Campello (2007) and Acharya, Almeida, and Campello (2007) models in a context of simultaneous financial decisions of the firm while taking into account the effects of the legal environment on the credit capacity of the firm. To achieve this goal I estimated a system of four simultaneous equations, which incorporates recent theoretical advancements, over a sample of firms from several countries. The results suggest the rejection of the empirical implications, since the expected differences between constrained and unconstrained firms could not be confirmed. The results also suggest that ignoring the simultaneity among financial decisions induces a misspecification that could have serious consequences on the estimated parameters and that the financial constraints arises in almost all firms, possibly in different degrees.
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A relação entre divulgação ambiental, desempenho ambiental e desempenho econômico nas empresas brasileiras de capital aberto: uma pesquisa utilizando equações simultâneas / The relation among environmental disclosure, environmental performance, and economic performance in Brazilian Public Companies: a study using simultaneous equationsKelly Teixeira Rodrigues Farias 28 January 2008 (has links)
As empresas têm crescentemente incluído em suas estratégias de negócios a responsabilidade ambiental em resposta às demandas sociais de conservação dos recursos naturais e às exigências dos diversos stakeholders para garantir sua legitimidade e permanecer no mercado. Nesse contexto, este estudo teve como objetivo investigar a inter-relação entre a divulgação ambiental, o desempenho ambiental e o desempenho econômico das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto. A pesquisa fundamentou-se na Teoria da Legitimidade e na Teoria da Divulgação, no que tange a divulgação de informações como uma resposta a pressões sociais e as necessidades dos stakeholders. Foram pesquisadas 87 empresas, que possuem ações negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa). O problema foi investigado pela hipótese que a divulgação ambiental, o desempenho ambiental e o desempenho econômico mantêm uma inter-relação positiva e linear entre si, observadas algumas características das empresas, o que culminou com adoção de um modelo de equações simultâneas. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que não há inter-relação significante entre as variáveis, de acordo com as características da amostra e dos indicadores utilizados, pois se observou que a divulgação ambiental é influenciada pelo desempenho ambiental, que o desempenho econômico afeta o desempenho ambiental, mas que a divulgação ambiental não é afetada pelo desempenho econômico. Sugere-se que sejam realizadas outras pesquisas, que observem a inter-relação utilizando outras variáveis e também outras medidas para aquelas que foram utilizadas. / The companies have been including the environmental responsibility in their business strategies, as a response to social demands for natural resources conservancy and to demands of the several stakeholders, in order to maintain their legitimacy and to stay in the market. This study aims to investigate the inter-relation among the environmental disclosure, the environmental performance and the economic performance of Brazilian Public Companies. The research was based on Legitimacy Theory and on Disclosure Theory, in relation to information disclosure as an answer to social pressures and to stakeholders needs. 87 companies, which have shares in Bovespa (São Paulo s Stock Market), had been investigated. The subject was investigated based on hypothesis, which environmental disclosure, environmental performance and economic performance are inter-related in a positive and linear way when related to some of the companies characteristics. It ended in the adoption of a simultaneous equations model. Results of the model suggest that there is no significant interrelation between environmental disclosure and environmental and economic performance, related companies characteristics and according to indicators used, as it was observed that the environmental disclosure is influenced by environmental performance and that the economic performance affects the environmental performance, but that environmental disclosure is no influences economic performance. It is suggested that from this study new research is taken, in order to observe the inter-relation observing other variables and other measures for those used.
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Restrições ao crédito e a interdependência das decisões financeiras da firma : um estudo multipaísKirch, Guilherme January 2012 (has links)
O objetivo do presente estudo foi verificar empiricamente as implicações dos modelos desenvolvidos por Almeida e Campello (2007) e Acharya, Almeida e Campello (2007) em um contexto de simultaneidade entre as decisões financeiras da firma e no qual o impacto do ambiente legal sobre a capacidade de crédito da mesma fosse considerado. Para alcançar esse objetivo estimou-se um sistema de quatro equações simultâneas, que incorpora os avanços teóricos recentes no tocante as decisões financeiras da firma, para uma amostra de firmas de diversos países. Os resultados alcançados sugerem a rejeição empírica das implicações dos referidos modelos, visto que as diferenças esperadas entre as firmas classificadas como não restritas e classificadas como restritas não puderam ser confirmadas. Os resultados também sugerem que ignorar a simultaneidade que caracteriza as decisões financeiras da firma consiste em um erro de especificação que pode ter consequências sérias sobre as estimativas dos parâmetros e que as restrições financeiras manifestam-se em praticamente todas as firmas, possivelmente em intensidades diferentes. / The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the implications of the Almeida and Campello (2007) and Acharya, Almeida, and Campello (2007) models in a context of simultaneous financial decisions of the firm while taking into account the effects of the legal environment on the credit capacity of the firm. To achieve this goal I estimated a system of four simultaneous equations, which incorporates recent theoretical advancements, over a sample of firms from several countries. The results suggest the rejection of the empirical implications, since the expected differences between constrained and unconstrained firms could not be confirmed. The results also suggest that ignoring the simultaneity among financial decisions induces a misspecification that could have serious consequences on the estimated parameters and that the financial constraints arises in almost all firms, possibly in different degrees.
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Restrições ao crédito e a interdependência das decisões financeiras da firma : um estudo multipaísKirch, Guilherme January 2012 (has links)
O objetivo do presente estudo foi verificar empiricamente as implicações dos modelos desenvolvidos por Almeida e Campello (2007) e Acharya, Almeida e Campello (2007) em um contexto de simultaneidade entre as decisões financeiras da firma e no qual o impacto do ambiente legal sobre a capacidade de crédito da mesma fosse considerado. Para alcançar esse objetivo estimou-se um sistema de quatro equações simultâneas, que incorpora os avanços teóricos recentes no tocante as decisões financeiras da firma, para uma amostra de firmas de diversos países. Os resultados alcançados sugerem a rejeição empírica das implicações dos referidos modelos, visto que as diferenças esperadas entre as firmas classificadas como não restritas e classificadas como restritas não puderam ser confirmadas. Os resultados também sugerem que ignorar a simultaneidade que caracteriza as decisões financeiras da firma consiste em um erro de especificação que pode ter consequências sérias sobre as estimativas dos parâmetros e que as restrições financeiras manifestam-se em praticamente todas as firmas, possivelmente em intensidades diferentes. / The purpose of this study is to empirically verify the implications of the Almeida and Campello (2007) and Acharya, Almeida, and Campello (2007) models in a context of simultaneous financial decisions of the firm while taking into account the effects of the legal environment on the credit capacity of the firm. To achieve this goal I estimated a system of four simultaneous equations, which incorporates recent theoretical advancements, over a sample of firms from several countries. The results suggest the rejection of the empirical implications, since the expected differences between constrained and unconstrained firms could not be confirmed. The results also suggest that ignoring the simultaneity among financial decisions induces a misspecification that could have serious consequences on the estimated parameters and that the financial constraints arises in almost all firms, possibly in different degrees.
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Investissement direct étranger, transfert de technologie et croissance économique en Europe Centrale et Orientale / Foreign direct investment, technology transfer and economic growth in Central and Eastern EuropeJude, Cristina 21 September 2012 (has links)
A l’issue de la transition économique et dans le contexte de rattrapage au sein de l’Union Européenne, cette thèse étudie le transfert de technologie associé aux investissements directs étrangers (IDE) en Europe Centrale et Orientale. Les externalités technologiques sont considérées comme la contribution principale des IDE au développement économique des pays d’accueil. La première partie de ce travail analyse le mécanisme microéconomique du transfert de technologie. Après avoir évalué le potentiel de transfert à travers l’excédent de productivité et l’intensité des échanges intersectoriels, nous analysons l’effet des externalités sur la productivité des entreprises locales. Nous construisons ainsi plusieurs mesures d’externalités horizontales et verticales, en accordant une toute attention particulière à la position des entreprises dans la filière. Enfin, nous nous intéressons au rôle de la capacité d'absorption locale et du décalage technologique dans la capture de ces externalités. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse nous menons une analyse macroéconomique centrée autour de deux directions : la relation entre les IDE et l’investissement local, ainsi que l’impact agrégé des IDE sur la croissance. Tout d’abord, nous partons de l’hypothèse de destruction créatrice entre les IDE et l’investissement local, puis nous analysons cette problématique dans la perspective des différents types d’IDE. Nous séparons également le mécanisme d’interaction entre les filiales et les entreprises locales selon le marché réel et le marché financier. Ensuite, nous évaluons la contribution des externalités agrégées au progrès technique, ce qui nous permet d’illustrer l’impact global des IDE sur la croissance économique. Enfin, nous considérons la relation IDE-croissance dans une double perspective, afin de montrer l’existence d’un cercle vertueux. / At the end of the economic transition and in the context of catching up within the European Union, this thesis studies the technology transfer associated with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central and Eastern Europe. Technological externalities are considered the main contribution of FDI to the economic development of host countries. The first part of this work analyzes the microeconomic mechanism of technology transfer. After having evaluated the potential for spillovers through the productivity gap and the intensity of intersectoral linkages, we identify the impact of technological spillovers on the productivity of domestic firms. We construct several measures of horizontal and vertical externalities, while giving particular attention to local firm’s status throughout the supply chain. Finally, we tested the role of local absorptive capacity and technological gap in the capture of spillovers. In the second part we conduct a macroeconomic analysis oriented on two directions: the relationship between FDI and local investment and the aggregate impact of FDI on growth. We start from the assumption of destructive creation between FDI and local investment and analyze this issue from the perspective of different types of FDI. We also separate the interaction mechanism between the affiliates and the domestic firms according to the real market and the financial market. We then evaluate the contribution of aggregate externalities to technical progress, which allows us to illustrate the overall impact of FDI on economic growth. Finally, we consider the FDI-growth relationship from a double perspective, in order to show the existence of a virtuous circle
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Analyzing spillover effects between sovereign, financial and real sectors during the euro zone crisis / Analyse des effets d'interdépendance des secteurs publics, bancaires et réels dans la crise de la zone euroShah, Syed Muhammad Noaman 27 June 2016 (has links)
Alors que le début de la crise de l'euro a relancé le débat sur l’interdépendance du risque decrédit et la relation dette bancaire-dette souveraine, l’importance du secteur réel est négligéedans l’élaboration des mesures de relance de la croissance économique dans la zone euro. Cettethèse se concentre sur ces questions au sein de la zone euro. D’abord, nous évaluons les effets«spillover» de la crise souveraine sur le coût de crédit des entreprises non financières enprésence des mesures d’austérité (Chapitre-I). Nos résultats indiquent un effet significatif de ladette publique sur le coût des prêts. En outre, en période de crise, les mesures d’austéritéimpactent significativement le coût de crédit tandis qu’avant la crise, on note une petite illustrationde la demande agrégée de Keynes. Ensuite, nous montrons que les fonctions traditionnelles desbanques, notamment celle de création de liquidité fragilisent le secteur souverain (Chapitre-II). Enparticulier, nous montrons que le risque de liquidité des banques agit comme un canal depropagation de l'incertitude vers les sociétés non financières et inversement. Enfin, nousexaminons la dynamique du risque de crédit sur la dette souveraine, les entreprises et lesbanques (Chapitre-III). Nos résultats montrent qu’il existe un risque de contagion sur les secteurset les marchés financiers de l’union monétaire. Par ailleurs, les résultats des simulations dechocs de primes de risque des pays «noyaux» de la zone euro confirment l’existence d’effetsindirects sur le reste de la zone. De plus, nous constatons un phénomène de fuite desinvestisseurs vers les valeurs refuges. / The onset of euro crisis has rekindled the policy debate regarding credit risk interdependenceamong sovereign-bank nexus. In this vein, the importance of real sector is overlooked whileformulating corrective measures for the recovery of economic growth in EMU. This thesispresents a study that examined these issues in euro zone. First, we evaluate spillover effect ofeuro crisis on borrowing cost of non-financial firms in presence of austerity measures (Chapter-I).Our results suggest significant effect especially where creditor rights protection are weak. Inaddition during recent crisis, results indicate presence of credibility channel due to austeritymeasures whereas; there is slight indication of aggregate demand channel before crisis. Second,we find traditional function of bank’s liquidity creation as a significant conduit of sovereign distressto real sector (Chapter-II). Particularly, our main finding shows that bank liquidity risk acts as aconduit which propagates uncertainty towards non-financial firms and re-channels it back torespective government. Finally, we examine cross-market credit risk dynamics among sovereignbank-firm nexus to identify presence of contagion during euro crisis period (Chapter-III). Ourresults report grave evidence of credit risk contagion across sectors and member states incorresponding financial markets in EMU. Moreover like peripheral countries, simulation results toshock in core countries risk premia strongly provide evidence of contagion towards remainingeuro zone.
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Libéralisation commerciale et réaction de l'offre des huiles alimentaires dans les pays de l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Afrique (UEMOA) / Trade liberalization and supply response of edible oils in west african economic and monetary union (WAEMU) countriesHomegnon, Noukpo 05 July 2018 (has links)
La production locale des huiles alimentaires ne constitue plus une ligne de défense crédible face aux importations dans les pays de l’UEMOA. Cette réalité contraste avec les objectifs de la politique agricole et du tarif extérieur commun (TEC) de l’UEMOA censés protéger la production communautaire. Ainsi, sous l’éclairage de la littérature économique et en se basant sur des données empiriques, nous avons utilisé les équations simultanées par pays de l’UEMOA, les équations des données de panel et les équations gravitationnelles en données de panel pour déterminer l’impact de la libéralisation commerciale sur l’offre des huiles alimentaires dans les pays de l’UEMOA.Les résultats obtenus convergent vers une même conclusion : la confrontation des objectifs de protection de la production communautaire et d’ouverture commerciale aux tests de cohérence révèle des incohérences et des contradictions. Les politiques de libéralisation commerciale ont plutôt favorisé une déstructuration du tissu productif et une désorganisation de l’architecture commerciale. De facto, l’offre des huiles alimentaires affiche deux réactions contradictoires au regard de la libéralisation commerciale au sein des pays de l’UEMOA : une réaction dépressive affichée par la production qui plombe et une réaction explosive affichée par les importations qui flambent et qui sont attirées par des rentes de réexportation. Cependant, ces rentes constituent des mirages qui réservent des implications économiques aux conséquences destructrices avec l’adoption du TEC-CEDEAO. / Local production of edible oils in the WAEMU’s countries is no longer a credible defense line against imports. This reality contrasts with the objectives of agriculture policy and WAEMU’s Common External Tariff (CET) which are supposed to protect Community production. Thus, under the light of the economic literature and based on empirical data, we used simultaneous equations for each country of WAEMU, panel data and gravity equations with panel data to determine the impact of trade liberalization on supply of edible oils in WAEMU’s countries.The results obtained converge towards the same conclusion: the confrontation of objectives of protecting local production and trade openness policy with the coherence’s tests reveals some inconsistencies and contradictions. Thus, WAEMU fails to reconcile the Union's trade openness objectives with the protection objectives of edible oils producers. Trade liberalization policies have tended to favor a disintegration of the productive structure and disruption of trade architecture. Thus, the supply of edible oils shows two contradictory reactions with regard to the trade liberalization within the WAEMU’s countries: a depressive reaction displayed by the production and an explosive reaction displayed by the imports which are attracted by re-export rents. However, these rents are mirages that reserve destructive economic implications with the adoption of ECOWAS’CET.
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Fiscalité environnementale, dette publique et croissance économique : une analyse macroéconomique / Environmental taxation, public debt and economic growth : a macroeconomic analysisHassan, Mahmoud 11 June 2018 (has links)
Les politiques environnementales, notamment celles recourant aux instruments fiscaux, ont pris une place de plus en plus importante dans un grand nombre de pays durant les trois dernières décennies. Tous les pays de l’OCDE ont introduit des taxes liées à l'environnement et un nombre croissant d'entre eux procèdent à une réforme dite "verte" de leur fiscalité. L’utilisation de la taxe comme un instrument pour la politique environnementale a suscité un large débat parmi les chercheurs sur ses impacts sur la croissance économique, mais sans parvenir à un consensus sur la nature de ces effets. Certains trouvent un effet négatif, alors que d’autres montrent un impact positif. Deux points ont attiré notre attention sur ce sujet. Premièrement, les études empiriques qui vérifient la validité de ces résultats sont très rares. Deuxièmement, la majorité des modèles théoriques qui ont étudié l’effet de la fiscalité environnementale sur la croissance économique supposent que le gouvernement finance ses dépenses uniquement par les taxes et que le budget d’État est équilibré à chaque période, évitant ainsi tout fardeau associé au remboursement de la dette publique. Par conséquent, cette thèse a pour objectif d’abord d’explorer empiriquement la nature de la relation entre la fiscalité environnementale et la croissance économique, et si cette relation est sensible au niveau d'autres variables dans l'économie. Ensuite, nous examinons les canaux par lesquels cette taxe peut affecter la croissance économique, et si l'existence et le niveau de la dette publique peuvent modifier cet effet. / Environmental policies, especially those using fiscal instruments, have become more and more important in a large number of countries over the last three decades. All OECD countries have introduced environmentally related taxes, and a growing number of them are carrying out a so-called "green" reform of their taxation. The use of the tax as an instrument for environmental policy has sparked wide debate among researchers on its impacts on economic growth, but without reaching consensus on the nature of these effects. Some find a negative effect; while others show a positive impact. Two points raised our attention on this subject. First, the empirical studies that verify the validity of these results are very rare. Second, the majority of theoretical models that have studied the effect of environmental taxation on economic growth assume that the government finances its expenditures solely through taxes and that the state budget is balanced each period, thus avoiding any burden associated to repayment of public debt. Therefore, this thesis aims firstly to explore empirically the nature of the relationship between environmental taxation and economic growth, and whether this relationship is sensitive to the level of other variables in the economy. We examine then the channels through which this tax can affect economic growth, and whether the existence and level of public debt can modify this effect.
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