Submitted by Franciele Moreira (francielemoreyra@gmail.com) on 2018-09-21T14:50:47Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Nícolas Rodrigues Moura - 2018.pdf: 4165797 bytes, checksum: 86460ffa29b4d346005f977c2f75693e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2018-09-24T13:21:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Nícolas Rodrigues Moura - 2018.pdf: 4165797 bytes, checksum: 86460ffa29b4d346005f977c2f75693e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-24T13:21:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Nícolas Rodrigues Moura - 2018.pdf: 4165797 bytes, checksum: 86460ffa29b4d346005f977c2f75693e (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Análises de estabilidade de taludes são predominantemente realizadas em duas-dimensões (2D) por métodos de equilíbrio limite. Os métodos convencionais de equilíbrio limite são alvos de muitas críticas pelo o uso do equilíbrio estático, pressuposições de forças na análise e por possuir o mesmo fator de segurança ao longo de toda a superfície de deslizamento. Para superar essas deficiências, o método proposto por Kulhawy (1969) incorpora o comportamento tensão-deformação do solo com tensões oriundas do Método de Elementos Finitos (FEM) e tem a mesma estrutura dos métodos de equilíbrio dos métodos de equilíbrio de equilíbrio limite clássicos. É também chamado de método aperfeiçoado. Devido à existência de taludes com geometrias complexas, a abordagem tridimensional (3D) é a única capaz de incorporar todos os aspectos geométricos do problema. Esta dissertação é dividida em dois artigos com o tema de estabilidade de taludes pelo o método de Kulhawy em abordagens 2D e 3D. O objetivo primário dessa dissertação é avaliar os principais fatores que influenciam a estabilidade de taludes. O primeiro artigo propôs geometrias variando de convexo a côncavo em um conjunto de propriedades típicas de solos. Duas trajetórias de geração de tensões in- situ foram utilizadas, i.e., construção e escavação. O método GLE foi calculado para fins de comparação. A superfície de deslizamento é muito dependente do histórico de tensão e da forma da face do talude. A diferença relativa no estado de tensões inicial típico alcançou 15% nas análises 2D e 34% nas análises 3D. A análise de sensibilidade do efeito do Poisson no fator de segurança mostrou-se muito relevante. A relação entre os fatores de segurança 2D e 3D são quase lineares independente do estado de tensões, das propriedades de resistência, formato da face do talude, na ordem de 30 a 40%. O segundo artigo propõe análises em barragens construídas em vales estreitos. Três abordagens de análises foram utilizadas: redução de resistência ao cisalhamento (SSR), métodos de Kulhawy e GLE. Condições típicas de fundações são muito variáveis como topografia e deformabilidade. A análise de sensibilidade do módulo de fundação de Young no fator de segurança foi insignificante em 2D e relevantes em 3D. A relação entre o comprimento do aterro (W) e a altura () é uma variável representativa do grau de estreitamento da barragem e na estabilidade de taludes. A análise de deformações planas tende a altas relações W/H e o oposto mostra elevados efeitos 3D. A inclinação da ombreira mostrou-se relevante no fator de segurança apenas em aterros em vales estreitos. Fundações mais rígidas são mais beneficias para o fator de segurança devido à produção de altos efeitos de arqueamento neste cenário. O método de Kulhawy provou-se ser vantajoso pela a incorporação do comportamento mecânico do solo, o uso de tensões mais realísticas nas análises e avaliação da estabilidade local na superfície de deslizamento. Isso aumenta a quantidade de informações úteis e confiáveis para o profissional de engenharia no projeto de taludes. Todas as análises foram realizadas usando o software SoilVision Systems, Saskatchewan, Canadá. Os módulos utilizados foram o SVLOPE, SVSOLID e o SVFLUX (SoilVision Systems Ltd., 2018). A análise de tensão para a simulação de trajetórias de escavação e construção utilizou do solucionador de Equações Diferenciais Parcias (PDE) o FlexPDE 6 (PDE Solutions Inc., 2014). / Slope stability analyses are predominantly performed using the two-dimensional (2D) conventional limit equilibrium methods. Conventional limit equilibrium methods are targets of many criticisms for using static equilibrium, assumptions of forces in the analysis and the same factor of safety along the slip surface. In order to overcome these shortcomings, the method proposed by Kulhawy (1969) incorporates the stress-strain behavior of the soil with stresses from the Finite Element Method (FEM) with the same structure as limit equilibrium methods. It is also called enhanced method. Due to the existence of slopes with complex geometries, the three-dimensional (3D) approach is only able to incorporate all the geometric aspects of the problem. This thesis is divided into two papers with the subject of slope stability analyses by the Kulhawy’s method in 2D and 3D approaches. The primary objective of this thesis is to evaluate major factors that influence slope stability. The first paper proposed geometries ranging from convex to concave in a set of soil properties. Two stress paths were considered, i.e., construction and excavation. The GLE method was computed for comparison purposes. The slip surface is very dependent on the stress history and the shape of slope face. The relative difference in typical initial stress state reached 15% in 2D analyses and 34% in 3D analyses. Sensitivity analysis of effect of Poisson’s ratio on factor of safety was very relevant. The relationship between 2D and 3D factors of safety are nearly linear independent of stress state on order of 30 to 40%. The second paper propose analyses on embankment dams built in narrow valleys. Three approaches of slope stability were used: shear strength reduction (SSR), Kulhawy’s and GLE methods. The typical conditions of foundation sites are very variable as topography and deformability. Sensitivity analysis of Young’s modulus of foundation on factor of safety was insignificant in 2D and relevant in 3D analyses. The ratio between embankment length (W) and height (H) was very important on slope stability. The plane strain analysis tends to high W/H ratio and the opposite shows high 3D effects. The inclination of abutment showed to be relevant on factor of safety only in embankments in narrow valleys. Stiffer foundations are beneficial to the factor of safety due producing high arching effects in this scenario. The Kulhawy’s method proved to be advantageous by the incorporation of mechanical behavior of soil, more realistic stress and local stability evaluation on slip surface. It increases the amount of useful and reliable information to the engineering professional in design of slopes. All analyses were performed using SoilVision Systems suite software, Saskatchewan, Canada. The modules used were SVSLOPE, SVSOLID and SVFLUX (SoilVision Systems Ltd., 2018). The stress analysis for the simulation of excavation and construction trajectories used partial differential equation (PDE) solver, FlexPDE 6 (PDE Solutions Inc., 2014).

[pt] Diferentes mecanismos de ruptura são considerados no momento de avaliar a estabilidade de um maciço rochoso fraturado. Entre estes, os mecanismos de ruptura tipo planar, em cunha e tombamentos têm sido estudados intensivamente, existindo atualmente modelos matemáticos que permitem avaliá-los. Estes mecanismos de ruptura são restritos a taludes pequenos e com fraturas contínuas, nas quais o deslizamento ocorre ao longo destas descontinuidades. Em casos de taludes de grande altura ou quando a persistência das fraturas é pequena em relação à escala do talude, o fraturamento torna-se descontínuo. Neste caso, o mecanismo de ruptura mais provável é o tipo Step-Path, o qual, a superfície de ruptura é formada por fraturas que se propagam através da rocha intacta juntando-se entre elas. Este fenômeno de união de fraturas é chamado de coalescência. Análises de estabilidade, como os probabilísticos ou por equilíbrio limite, são usados atualmente para avaliar estes tipos de rupturas, não se tendo ainda o desenvolvimento de um modelo numérico que possa representá-lo e reforçar estas teorias. O presente trabalho avalia o uso do Método dos Elementos Discretos na modelagem do mecanismo de ruptura tipo step- path, realizando uma análise de estabilidade que permita comparar os seus resultados com o método de equilíbrio limite. Foi utilizado o programa PFC nas versões 2D e 3D, assim como o programa FracGen para a geração de fraturas tridimensionais. A análise tridimensional foi feita mediante um acoplamento PFC3D-FracGen. A pesquisa inclui a análise e modelagem dos fenômenos de coalescência em amostras, assim como a influência da anisotropia na resistência das rochas em ensaios triaxiais. / [en] Different failure mechanisms are considered when a fracturated rock mass is valued. Some of them are being subject of accurate study, like planar failure mechanism, wedges and toppling, which are currently valued by mathematical models. These failure mechanisms are restricted to small slopes and with continue fractures, where the sliding occurs along these discontinuities. To height slopes or when the fracture persistence is smaller than the slope scale, the fracturing becomes discontinuous. In this case, the most probable failure mechanism to happen is the step-path type, in which the failure surface is composed by fractures that propagate through the intact rock and that are joined together. This phenomenon of fracture union is known as coalescence. Stability analysis, like probability analysis or limit equilibrium analysis are currently utilized to evaluate this kind of failures, but its important to develop a numerical model to represent and reinforce these theories. This work aims to evaluate the use of Discrete Element Method to model step-path failure mechanism on a stability analysis and to compare the results with limit equilibrium method. The program used to simulate the slope is PFC (2D and 3D) and the program FracGen was used to generate three-dimensional fractures. Three-dimensional analysis was done by a coupling between PFC3D and FracGen. The research includes the analysis and modeling of coalescence phenomenon on rock samples, as well as the analysis of the anisotropy influence on rock strength obtained from triaxial tests.

[pt] Em um maciço rochoso, as fraturas apresentam-se de forma irregular e descontínua. A complexidade na distribuição espacial destas descontinuidades faz com que o mecanismo de ruptura por tombamento ocorra mais frequentemente por uma combinação de dois tipos de fenômenos: Tombamento de blocos e flexural. Assim, a ruptura por tombamento do tipo bloco-flexural pode ser considerada a forma mais comum presente neste tipo de mecanismo. Trabalhos utilizando o método de equilíbrio limite ou modelos físicos estudam a influência desta combinação, mas a literatura relata poucos trabalhos numéricos que possam ajudar na compreensão dos fenômenos envolvidos neste processo de ruptura. O presente trabalho procura modelar o mecanismo de ruptura por tombamento bloco-flexural através do método dos elementos discretos (DEM), utilizando o software PFC (Particle Flow Code). Em particular, procura-se avaliar as potencialidades do método para estudos deste tipo, utilizando um novo modelo de contato entre partículas e a calibração das propriedades elásticas do material sintético. Apresentam-se também detalhes da metodologia utilizada e exemplos de validação, incluindo comparações com soluções analíticas e semi-analíticas disponíveis na literatura. / [en] Joints exhibit an irregular and discontinuous behavior inside the rock mass. The spatial distribution complexity of these discontinuities causes the toppling failure occurs more often by a combination of two types of toppling phenomena: toppling of rock blocks and flexural toppling. Thus, the block-flexural toppling can be considered the most common when a toppling process is being developed in rock slopes. Analytical and physical models approach, were presented in order to study each process individually, but the literature reports few works that may help to understand the influence of the two processes together. The present work aims to represents the mechanism of block-flexural toppling through the discrete elements method (DEM) using the PFC (Particle Flow Code) software. In particular, the objective is to assess the potential of the method for studies of this type, using a new model of contact between particles and the elastic properties calibration of the synthetic material. In order to do that, the work shows the methodology details and validation examples, including comparisons with analytical and semi-analytical solutions that are available in the literature.

The aim is to design economical and above all safe securing a deep notch, both in the construction phase and throughout the use of the building. In the first part of the thesis Background research will be given an idea of the construction of the geotechnical point of view. The second part will contain the geotechnical design calculation. The third part will be proposed safety recommendations in terms of geotechnical monitoring.

[pt] O principal objetivo deste trabalho é a aplicação do método dos elementos finitos (MEF) na análise da estabilidade de taludes em solo, para identificação da superfície crítica de deslizamento e cálculo do correspondente fator de segurança. Ainda que o método dos elementos finitos tenha se tornado ferramenta popular para análise de muitos problemas da engenharia geotécnica, existem relativamente poucas aplicações específicas publicadas na literatura sobre estabilidade de taludes. Dois métodos podem ser empregados para a utilização do MEF na área da estabilidade de taludes: o método direto, onde os resultados numéricos são exclusivamente usados para localização da potencial superfície de deslizamento e cálculo do fator de segurança, e o método indireto, onde seus resultados são acoplados a uma técnica para auxiliar a pesquisa da superfície crítica. Comparações entre resultados obtidos pelo método dos elementos finitos e de equilíbrio limite são feitas em vários exemplos numéricos investigados nesta dissertação, comentando-se a aplicabilidade, vantagens e limitações de ambas as metodologias em estudos da estabilidade de taludes em solos. / [en] The main objective of this research is the application of the finite element method (FEM) to analyze the stability of soil slopes, searching the position of the failure slip surface in the soil mass and its corresponding safety factor. The finite element method has become a popular tool for the study of many geotechnical engineering problems but, in the specific area of slope stability analysis, there are relatively few applications reported in the literature. Basically, two methods have evolved for application of the FEM results in slope stability problems: the direct method, that uses the numerical results only for establishing the slip surface and computation of the related safety factor, and the indirect method, where the FEM results are combined with another numerical technique to improve the search process of slip surfaces. Several numerical examples have been studied in this dissertation, making comparisons among the results obtained using the finite element and limit equilibrium methods. The applicability, advantages and shortcomings of both approaches are also discussed. / [es] 1276 El objetivo principal de este trabajo es la aplicación del método de los elementos finitos (MEF) al análisis de estabilidad de taludes de suelo, con el próposito de identificar la superfície crítica de deslizamento y cálculo del correspondiente factor de seguridad. Aunque el método de los elementos finitos se haya convertido en una herramienta popular en el análisis de muchos problemas de la ingeniería geotécnica, existen relativamente pocas aplicaciones específicas publicadas en la literatura sobre la estabilidad de taludes. Dos métodos pueden ser empleados para la utilización del MEF en el área de estabilidad de taludes: el método directo, donde los resultados numéricos son exclusivamente usados para localización de la potencial superficie de deslizamento y el cálculo del factor de seguridad; y el método indirecto, donde los resultados se acoplan a una técnica para auxiliar la investigación de la superficie crítica. Se utilizan varios ejemplos con el fin de comparar los resultados obtenidos por el método de los elementos finitos y por el método de equilibrio límite investigados en esta disertación. Se incluyen comentarios sobre la aplicabilidad, ventajas y limitaciones de ambas metodologías en estudios de la estabilidad de taludes en suelos.

Vid geotekniska arbeten är osäkerheter oundvikliga, men i stället för att hantera dessa som okända parametrar kan geotekniker med hjälp av bayesiansk statistik hantera geotekniska osäkerheter som slumpmässiga variabler med en sannolikhetsfördelning. I detta arbete har den bayesianska metoden utökad multivariabelanalys (EMA) tillämpats för bedömning av odränerad skjuvhållfasthet (𝑐u) i leror längs med Göta älv. Analysen har genomförts för områdena Smådala och Sörängen lokaliserade i lilla Edet längs med Göta älv, med mätdata från fem geotekniska mätmetoder i fält- och laboratorium: CPT-sondering (CPT), CRS-försök (CRS), direkta skjuvförsök (DSS), vingförsök (Vb) och fallkonförsök (Kon). Beräkningarna har genomförts i två steg: först har den totala osäkerheten för skattningen av 𝑐u bestämts separat för varje metod med hjälp av varianskoefficienten (𝐶𝑂𝑉tot) och sedan har samtliga 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot viktats med en EMA för en uppdaterad, mer tillförlitlig, total osäkerhet (𝐶𝑂𝑉tot,viktad). Resultaten visar 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot,viktat ≈ 2– 3,5 % för Smådala och 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot,viktat ≈ 1– 2 % för Sörängen. Slutsatsen är att bayesiansk statistik kan bidra till att kvantifiera geotekniska osäkerheter och därmed öka förståelsen dessa. Dock har osäkerheter vid bedömningen av vissa parametrar i 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot uppmärksammats, vilket kan innebära att osäkerheten från modellfelet (𝜗) kan öka osäkerheten vid skattningen av 𝑐u. Därför rekommenderas att storleken på 𝜗 vid bedömning av 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot bör undersökas och adderas till modellen för att möjliggöra användning av EMA i praktiken. / Uncertainties are inevitable in geotechnical investigations. However, instead of viewing these uncertainties as unknown parameters they could be managed with Bayesian statistics where the uncertainties are viewed as random variables with a statistical distribution. In this master thesis, the Bayesian method extended multivariate analysis (EMA) has been used for evaluation of the undrained shear strength (𝑐u) in clay along the Göta älv river. The analysis has been applied for the areas Smådala and Sörängen in the region Lilla Edet along the river, and with data from five geotechnical investigations methods from field- and laboratory testing: cone penetration test (CPT), constant rate of strain test (CRS), direct simple shear test (DSS), vane shear test (Vb) and fall cone test (Kon). The calculations were performed in two steps: first the calculation of the total uncertainty from the estimation of 𝑐u for each investigation method with the coefficient of variation (𝐶𝑂𝑉tot) and secondly the weighting of all the different 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot with an EMA to achieve an updated estimation of the uncertainties (𝐶𝑂𝑉tot,viktad). The results show that 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot,viktat ≈ 2– 3,5 % in Smådala and 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot,viktat ≈ 1– 2 % in Sörängen. The conclusion is that the usage of Bayesian statistics could increase the understanding of geotechnical uncertainties as well as give tools to quantify them. Although, there were uncertainties with the estimation of some parameters within 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot and thus the uncertainty from the so-called model error (𝜗) could increase the uncertainty in the estimation of 𝑐u. Therefore, it is suggested that the magnitude of 𝜗 when estimating 𝐶𝑂𝑉tot should be investigated and added to the model to enable the usage of EMA in practice.

[pt] Os deslizamentos ocorridos em grandes escalas ao redor do mundo decorrentes, principalmente, de eventos chuvosos extremos criaram um sinal de alerta para a necessidade de compreensão dos mecanismos de deflagração desses movimentos de massa. No entanto, a influência de variáveis fundamentais, como a espessura de solo e as condições iniciais de umidade, no estudo de estabilidade de bacias hidrográficas ainda não foi totalmente esclarecido. Nesta dissertação, simulações numéricas de fluxo e análise de estabilidade de encostas são realizadas nas bacias hidrográficas dos rios Quitite e Papagaio. Primeiramente, dois modelos analíticos de espessura de solo são utilizados em simulações envolvendo o fluxo tridimensional saturado-não saturado com o uso do método dos elementos finitos. A condição inicial de umidade também é analisada utilizando-se dados de precipitação por um período de spin-up. Posteriormente, o fator de segurança (FS) da região, via talude infinito, é analisado após a imposição de um evento chuvoso extremo. Dessa forma, é possível verificar que os intervalos de espessuras de solo de 0 a 3 m são os que mais se assemelham às cicatrizes mapeadas, sugerindo uma abordagem mais realística de espessura média para a bacia. Além disso, é verificado que, em eventos extremos, o uso do spin-up time para condição inicial de umidade variável pode não ter muita influência no fator de segurança, pois a intensidade e duração da chuva serão os agentes deflagradores. / [en] The large-scale landslides that have occurred around the world, mainly due to extreme rainfall events, serve as a warning signal for the need to understand the triggering mechanisms of these mass movements. However, the influence of fundamental variables, such as soil thickness and initial moisture conditions, in the study of watershed stability has not been fully clarified. In this dissertation, numerical flow simulations and slope stability analysis are carried out for the hydrographic basins of the Quitite and Papagaio rivers. In this study, two analytical soil thickness models are applied to saturated-unsaturated three-dimensional finite element flow simulations. The initial moisture condition is analyzed using precipitation data for a spin-up period. Subsequently, the safety factor (SF) is analysed, using the infinite slope method, after the imposition of an extreme rainfall event. From these results, it is possible to verify that the ranges of soil thicknesses from 0 to 3 m are the ones that most resemble the mapped scars, suggesting a more realistic approach for considering the average basin thickness. In addition, it is verified that, in extreme events, the use of spin-up time for initial variable humidity conditions may not have much influence on the safety factor, since the intensity and duration of the rain will be the triggering agents.

In geotechnical engineering, the uncertainties such as the variability and uncertainty inherent in the geotechnical properties have caught more and more attentions from researchers and engineers. They have found that a single “Factor of Safety” calculated by traditional deterministic analyses methods can not represent the slope stability exactly. Recently in order to provide a more rational mathematical framework to incorporate different types of uncertainties in the slope stability estimation, reliability analyses and non-deterministic methods, which include probabilistic and non probabilistic (imprecise methods) methods, have been applied widely. In short, the slope non-deterministic analysis is to combine the probabilistic analysis or non probabilistic analysis with the deterministic slope stability analysis. It cannot be regarded as a completely new slope stability analysis method, but just an extension of the slope deterministic analysis. The slope failure probability calculated by slope non-deterministic analysis is a kind of complement of safety factor. Therefore, the accuracy of non deterministic analysis is not only depended on a suitable probabilistic or non probabilistic analysis method selected, but also on a more rigorous deterministic analysis method or geological model adopted. In this thesis, reliability concepts have been reviewed first, and some typical non-deterministic methods, including Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), First Order Reliability Method (FORM), Point Estimate Method (PEM) and Random Set Theory (RSM), have been described and successfully applied to the slope stability analysis based on a numerical simulation method-Strength Reduction Method (SRM). All of the processes have been performed in a commercial finite difference code FLAC and a distinct element code UDEC. First of all, as the fundamental of slope reliability analysis, the deterministic numerical simulation method has been improved. This method has a higher accuracy than the conventional limit equilibrium methods, because of the reason that the constitutive relationship of soil is considered, and fewer assumptions on boundary conditions of slope model are necessary. However, the construction of slope numerical models, particularly for the large and complicated models has always been very difficult and it has become an obstacle for application of numerical simulation method. In this study, the excellent spatial analysis function of Geographic Information System (GIS) technique has been introduced to help numerical modeling of the slope. In the process of modeling, the topographic map of slope has been gridded using GIS software, and then the GIS data was transformed into FLAC smoothly through the program built-in language FISH. At last, the feasibility and high efficiency of this technique has been illustrated through a case study-Xuecheng slope, and both 2D and 3D models have been investigated. Subsequently, three most widely used probabilistic analyses methods, Monte Carlo Simulation, First Order Reliability Method and Point Estimate Method applied with Strength Reduction Method have been studied. Monte Carlo Simulation which needs to repeat thousands of deterministic analysis is the most accurate probabilistic method. However it is too time consuming for practical applications, especially when it is combined with numerical simulation method. For reducing the computation effort, a simplified Monte Carlo Simulation-Strength Reduction Method (MCS-SRM) has been developed in this study. This method has estimated the probable failure of slope and calculated the mean value of safety factor by means of soil parameters first, and then calculated the variance of safety factor and reliability of slope according to the assumed probability density function of safety factor. Case studies have confirmed that this method can reduce about 4/5 of time compared with traditional MCS-SRM, and maintain almost the same accuracy. First Order Reliability Method is an approximate method which is based on the Taylor\'s series expansion of performance function. The closed form solution of the partial derivatives of the performance function is necessary to calculate the mean and standard deviation of safety factor. However, there is no explicit performance function in numerical simulation method, so the derivative expressions have been replaced with equivalent difference quotients to solve the differential quotients approximately in this study. Point Estimate Method is also an approximate method involved even fewer calculations than FORM. In the present study, it has been integrated with Strength Reduction Method directly. Another important observation referred to the correlation between the soil parameters cohesion and friction angle. Some authors have found a negative correlation between cohesion and friction angle of soil on the basis of experimental data. However, few slope probabilistic studies are found to consider this negative correlation between soil parameters in literatures. In this thesis, the influence of this correlation on slope probability of failure has been investigated based on numerical simulation method. It was found that a negative correlation considered in the cohesion and friction angle of soil can reduce the variability of safety factor and failure probability of slope, thus increasing the reliability of results. Besides inter-correlation of soil parameters, these are always auto-correlated in space, which is described as spatial variability. For the reason that knowledge on this character is rather limited in literature, it is ignored in geotechnical engineering by most researchers and engineers. In this thesis, the random field method has been introduced in slope numerical simulation to simulate the spatial variability structure, and a numerical procedure for a probabilistic slope stability analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation was presented. The soil properties such as cohesion and friction angle were discretized to continuous random fields based on local averaging method. In the case study, both stationary and non-stationary random fields have been investigated, and the influence of spatial variability and averaging domain on the convergence of numerical simulation and probability of failure was studied. In rock medium, the structure faces have very important influence on the slope stability, and the rock material can be modeled as the combination of rigid or deformable blocks with joints in distinct element method. Therefore, much more input parameters like strength of joints are required to input the rock slope model, which increase the uncertainty of the results of numerical model. Furthermore, because of the limitations of the current laboratory and in-site testes, there is always lack of exact values of geotechnical parameters from rock material, even the probability distribution of these variables. Most of time, engineers can only estimate the interval of these variables from the limit testes or the expertise’s experience. In this study, to assess the reliability of the rock slope, a Random Set Distinct Element Method (RS-DEM) has been developed through coupling of Random Set Theory and Distinct Element Method, and applied in a rock slope in Sichuan province China.

In geotechnical engineering, the uncertainties such as the variability and uncertainty inherent in the geotechnical properties have caught more and more attentions from researchers and engineers. They have found that a single “Factor of Safety” calculated by traditional deterministic analyses methods can not represent the slope stability exactly. Recently in order to provide a more rational mathematical framework to incorporate different types of uncertainties in the slope stability estimation, reliability analyses and non-deterministic methods, which include probabilistic and non probabilistic (imprecise methods) methods, have been applied widely. In short, the slope non-deterministic analysis is to combine the probabilistic analysis or non probabilistic analysis with the deterministic slope stability analysis. It cannot be regarded as a completely new slope stability analysis method, but just an extension of the slope deterministic analysis. The slope failure probability calculated by slope non-deterministic analysis is a kind of complement of safety factor. Therefore, the accuracy of non deterministic analysis is not only depended on a suitable probabilistic or non probabilistic analysis method selected, but also on a more rigorous deterministic analysis method or geological model adopted. In this thesis, reliability concepts have been reviewed first, and some typical non-deterministic methods, including Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), First Order Reliability Method (FORM), Point Estimate Method (PEM) and Random Set Theory (RSM), have been described and successfully applied to the slope stability analysis based on a numerical simulation method-Strength Reduction Method (SRM). All of the processes have been performed in a commercial finite difference code FLAC and a distinct element code UDEC. First of all, as the fundamental of slope reliability analysis, the deterministic numerical simulation method has been improved. This method has a higher accuracy than the conventional limit equilibrium methods, because of the reason that the constitutive relationship of soil is considered, and fewer assumptions on boundary conditions of slope model are necessary. However, the construction of slope numerical models, particularly for the large and complicated models has always been very difficult and it has become an obstacle for application of numerical simulation method. In this study, the excellent spatial analysis function of Geographic Information System (GIS) technique has been introduced to help numerical modeling of the slope. In the process of modeling, the topographic map of slope has been gridded using GIS software, and then the GIS data was transformed into FLAC smoothly through the program built-in language FISH. At last, the feasibility and high efficiency of this technique has been illustrated through a case study-Xuecheng slope, and both 2D and 3D models have been investigated. Subsequently, three most widely used probabilistic analyses methods, Monte Carlo Simulation, First Order Reliability Method and Point Estimate Method applied with Strength Reduction Method have been studied. Monte Carlo Simulation which needs to repeat thousands of deterministic analysis is the most accurate probabilistic method. However it is too time consuming for practical applications, especially when it is combined with numerical simulation method. For reducing the computation effort, a simplified Monte Carlo Simulation-Strength Reduction Method (MCS-SRM) has been developed in this study. This method has estimated the probable failure of slope and calculated the mean value of safety factor by means of soil parameters first, and then calculated the variance of safety factor and reliability of slope according to the assumed probability density function of safety factor. Case studies have confirmed that this method can reduce about 4/5 of time compared with traditional MCS-SRM, and maintain almost the same accuracy. First Order Reliability Method is an approximate method which is based on the Taylor\'s series expansion of performance function. The closed form solution of the partial derivatives of the performance function is necessary to calculate the mean and standard deviation of safety factor. However, there is no explicit performance function in numerical simulation method, so the derivative expressions have been replaced with equivalent difference quotients to solve the differential quotients approximately in this study. Point Estimate Method is also an approximate method involved even fewer calculations than FORM. In the present study, it has been integrated with Strength Reduction Method directly. Another important observation referred to the correlation between the soil parameters cohesion and friction angle. Some authors have found a negative correlation between cohesion and friction angle of soil on the basis of experimental data. However, few slope probabilistic studies are found to consider this negative correlation between soil parameters in literatures. In this thesis, the influence of this correlation on slope probability of failure has been investigated based on numerical simulation method. It was found that a negative correlation considered in the cohesion and friction angle of soil can reduce the variability of safety factor and failure probability of slope, thus increasing the reliability of results. Besides inter-correlation of soil parameters, these are always auto-correlated in space, which is described as spatial variability. For the reason that knowledge on this character is rather limited in literature, it is ignored in geotechnical engineering by most researchers and engineers. In this thesis, the random field method has been introduced in slope numerical simulation to simulate the spatial variability structure, and a numerical procedure for a probabilistic slope stability analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation was presented. The soil properties such as cohesion and friction angle were discretized to continuous random fields based on local averaging method. In the case study, both stationary and non-stationary random fields have been investigated, and the influence of spatial variability and averaging domain on the convergence of numerical simulation and probability of failure was studied. In rock medium, the structure faces have very important influence on the slope stability, and the rock material can be modeled as the combination of rigid or deformable blocks with joints in distinct element method. Therefore, much more input parameters like strength of joints are required to input the rock slope model, which increase the uncertainty of the results of numerical model. Furthermore, because of the limitations of the current laboratory and in-site testes, there is always lack of exact values of geotechnical parameters from rock material, even the probability distribution of these variables. Most of time, engineers can only estimate the interval of these variables from the limit testes or the expertise’s experience. In this study, to assess the reliability of the rock slope, a Random Set Distinct Element Method (RS-DEM) has been developed through coupling of Random Set Theory and Distinct Element Method, and applied in a rock slope in Sichuan province China.

La construcción de coberturas en zonas alto andinas se ha convertido en una pieza clave para disminuir los pasivos ambientales y, a la vez, contribuir el desarrollo del país gracias a la minería. Gran parte del terreno en estas zonas son suelos arcillosos cuyo comportamiento es impredecible porque presentan cambios de volumen abruptos según la variación de saturación del suelo. Quienes transitan por carreteras en taludes de este tipo de suelo, corren alto riesgo debido al deslizamiento que sufren los taludes cada año. En este tipo de taludes se producen deslizamientos cuando el suelo arcilloso se encuentra parcialmente saturado, ya que en estas condiciones el suelo no es estable. Por ello, se realizaron los estudios de estabilidad de taludes de suelo parcialmente saturado con el método de talud infinito. Se construyó la envolvente de falla del suelo parcialmente saturado con los valores del ensayo del papel filtro y corte directo de acuerdo con la saturación a la que se encuentre sometido. Estos valores serán importantes para el cálculo del factor de seguridad, el cual se obtuvo a partir de una hoja de cálculo propuesta en esta investigación. Finalmente, se validó la hoja de cálculo con el software Geostudio donde se obtuvo una variación dentro del rango de significancia +-5%. Se concluyó que el análisis de estabilidad de talud de cobertura de un suelo parcialmente saturado proporciona un valor de factor de seguridad a partir de un análisis que simula con mayor exactitud el comportamiento del suelo. / The construction of hedges in high Andean areas has become a key element in reducing environmental liabilities and, at the same time, contributing to the development of the country thanks to mining. Much of the terrain in these areas is clay soils whose behavior is unpredictable because they present abrupt volume changes depending on the variation in soil saturation. Those who travel on roads on slopes of this type of soil are at high risk due to the landslide suffered by the slopes every year. In this type of slopes, landslides occur when the clay soil is partially saturated, since under these conditions the soil is not stable. For this reason, the stability studies of partially saturated soil slopes were carried out with the infinite slope method. The partially saturated soil failure envelope was constructed with the values ​​of the filter paper test and direct cut according to the saturation to which it is subjected. These values ​​will be important for the calculation of the safety factor, which was obtained from a spreadsheet proposed in this investigation. Finally, the spreadsheet was validated with the Geostudio software, where a variation was obtained within the range of significance + -5%. It was concluded that the slope stability analysis of a partially saturated soil cover provides a factor of safety value from an analysis that more accurately simulates soil behavior. / Tesis