Temporal stability of effects of the 11-year solar cycle on circulation conditions in central Europe Abstract The aim of this master thesis is to determinewhether circulation conditions in central Europe are affected by variable solar activity. Circulation type classification by Beck (2000) is used here to evaluate the solar effects. Circulation characteristics of circulation are available back to 1780. This master thesis proves that the solar cycle effects on circulation conditions in central Europe are not stationary in time. It was demonstrated that the frequency of individual circulation types varies significantly, depending on the length of studied period. The impact of solar variability on circulation conditions in central Europe is more significant when a shorter time period is being considered. It was also found that the response of circulation characteristics on solar variability is not immediate. There have not been clear results if there exists a linear trend on lagged response of solar variability on circulation characteristics. Linear trend has been found only for a whole year dataset with a lagged response within a year. This thesis proves that the solar cycle effects on troposphere are highly variable, so it is very difficult to define them straightforward. Keywords: atmospheric circulation,...

Les glaces polaires, en plus d'améliorer notre compréhension du climat, donnent accès aux retombées de béryllium-10 (10Be), isotope d'origine cosmogénique formé par l'interaction du rayonnement cosmique et des hautes couches de l'atmosphère. Son taux de production dépend de l'intensité du rayonnement cosmique primaire, qui est modulé par l'activité solaire et le champ magnétique terrestre. Le 10Be contient donc des informations sur ces deux paramètres. Il a permis, entre autres, l'amélioration des chronologies des carottes de glace grâce à des marqueurs stratigraphiques absolus liés à des évènements remarquables du champ géomagnétique comme l'excursion de Laschamp ou l'inversion de Brunhes-Matuyama.EPICA Dome C (75° 06' S, 123° 21' E) est une carotte de glace de 3270 m de long forée en Antarctique Est. Elle offre un enregistrement climatique complet durant les 800 000 dernières années (kyr BP). Dans le cadre de cette thèse, 2200 échantillons de 10Be ont été mesurés entre 2384 m (269 kyr BP) et 2627 m (355 kyr BP) de profondeur. Cette séquence continue offre, d'une part, la possibilité d'étudier l'activité solaire durant la période interglaciaire du Stade Isotopique Marin (MIS) 9.3, où la résolution atteint ~20 ans. Nos résultats contrastent avec ceux durant l'Holocène, avec l'absence remarquée du cycle de de Vries (210 ans) dans notre profil de 10Be. D'autre part, cette séquence nous a permis de vérifier que l'estimation classique de l'accumulation de neige obtenue par les modèles de datation de carottes de glace est correcte à 20% près lors de la succession des cycles glaciaires – interglaciaires.Ces mesures ont été combinées avec celles précédemment effectuées sous la responsabilité de Grant Raisbeck (publication en préparation). Ceci permet de disposer d'un profil continu et détaillé (résolution de 20 à 250 ans) entre 200 et 800 kyr BP sur la carotte de glace EPICA Dome C. Les variations de flux de 10Be observées se comparent bien aux changements d'intensité du champ géomagnétique enregistrés dans les sédiments marins. À partir de cette observation, il est possible de proposer une synchronisation de ces profils afin de les placer sur une échelle d'âge commune. Les déphasages observés entre l'augmentation de température en Antarctique (augmentation du D à EDC) et la hausse du niveau marin global (baisse du 18O marin des archives sédimentaires) n'excèdent pas 3200 ans excepté à la Terminaison VII. La faible résolution des enregistrements de 18O dans les sédiments marins rend l'analyse des déphasages délicate. Les résultats obtenus encouragent à analyser des périodes plus récentes autour de la Terminaison II, incluant les excursions géomagnétiques de Blake et d'Iceland Basin. Ceci permettrait en effet de contraindre plus fortement la synchronisation entre le signal paléomagnétique dans les sédiments marins et le flux de 10Be à EDC. / The polar ice cores, in addition to improving our understanding of the climate, give access to beryllium-10 (10Be) fallout, an isotope of cosmogenic origin created by the interaction of Galactic Cosmic Rays with the upper atmosphere. Its production rate depends on the intensity of the primary cosmic rays, which are modulated by solar activity and the Earth's magnetic field. 10Be therefore provides information on these two parameters. It has allowed, among others, the improvement of ice cores chronologies thanks to absolute stratigraphic markers linked to remarkable events of the geomagnetic field as the Laschamp excursion or the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal.EPICA Dome C (75° 06' S, 123° 21' E) is a 3270~m ice core drilled in East Antarctica. It offers a complete climate record over the last 800 000 years (kyr BP). In the framework of the PhD, 2200 10Be samples were measured between 2384 m (269 kyr BP) and 2627 m (355 kyr BP) deep. This continuous sequence provides, on the one hand, the opportunity to study the solar activity during the interglacial period of the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9.3, where the resolution reaches ~20 years. Our results contrast with those during the Holocene, with the noted absence of the de Vries cycle (210 years) in our 10Be profile. On the other hand, this sequence allowed us to verify that the classical estimate of snow accumulation obtained by the dating models of ice cores is correct to within 20% during the succession of glacial – interglacial cycles.These measurements were combined with those previously performed under the responsibility of Grant Raisbeck (publication in preparation). This allows to dispose of a continuous and detailed profile (resolution: 20 to 250 years) between 200 and 800 kyr BP on the EPICA Dome C ice core. The observed 10Be flux variations compare well with changes in the intensity of the geomagnetic field recorded in marine sediments. From this observation, it is possible to propose a synchronization of these profiles in order to place them on a common age scale. The observed phase shifts between the rise of temperature in Antarctica (increase of D at EDC) and the rise of global sea level (decrease of marine 18O from marine sediments) do not exceed 3200, except at the Termination VII. The low resolution of the 18O records from marine sediments makes it difficult to analyze the phase shifts. The obtained results encourage to analyze more recent periods around Termination II, including the Blake and Iceland Basin geomagnetic excursions. Indeed, this would allow to constrain more strongly the synchronization between the paleomagnetic signal in marine sediments and the 10Be flux at EDC.

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Orientadores: José Pissolato Filho, Pierre Kaufmann / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-23T01:41:59Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Duro_MagdaAparecidaSalgueiro_D.pdf: 3861523 bytes, checksum: f5896319d2a3653a7903f977210f3ac1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: A atual dependência da sociedade aos diversos sistemas tecnológicos em funcionamento na Terra traz uma constante preocupação pela sua vulnerabilidade a fatores menos conhecidos. As possíveis falhas no fornecimento de energia elétrica podem ocasionar transtornos de grande impacto às comunidades podendo acarretar perdas financeiras expressivas. Diversos fatores podem ocasionar falhas nas linhas de transmissão, entre eles, os fatores climáticos. Nesse contexto, são pouco conhecidas as influências qualitativas de distintos fatores, destacando-se os efeitos do denominado clima espacial. Há indicações que o clima espacial influencia a alta atmosfera terrestre, com repercussão no clima bem como em sistemas de engenharia em operação na Terra. As redes de transmissão de alta tensão representam um grande circuito elétrico pouco acima do solo sujeito a uma série de sobrecargas temporárias de vários tipos, algumas das quais podem levar a falhas. Algumas destas falhas podem estar relacionadas ao ambiente geofísico. Neste trabalho foi analisada uma base de dados sem precedentes de falhas em linhas de transmissão por um longo período (nove anos) numa grande malha localizada no Estado de São Paulo (sudeste do Brasil). O período estudado (1998-2006) compreende uma significativa fração do ciclo de atividade solar 23. A concessionária responsável (ISA.CTEEP) pela operação das linhas estudadas classifica as falhas em noventa e cinco tipos distintos de causas possíveis, sendo que a maior parte está relacionada às descargas atmosféricas. Este estudo está relacionado aos desligamentos devido às descargas atmosféricas, em duas redes de alta voltagem da companhia, de 138 kV e de 440 kV. No período estudado, estes desligamentos correspondem a 1.957 (42,80%) num total de 4.572 para a linha de 138 kV e de 170 (22,28%) sobre 763 para a linha de 440 kV. Equivale a menos de um a cada dez mil do número total de descargas atmosféricas ocorridas na mesma área, o que demonstra alta resiliência das redes de potência em relação aos raios. Durante a época das chuvas, há uma maior concentração de desligamentos. Para todo o período estudado houve redução de 67% e 77% no número de desligamentos devido às descargas atmosféricas, para as linhas de 138 kV e 440 kV, respectivamente, havendo uma boa correspondência com a redução do número de manchas solares. Nenhuma correlação foi encontrada em relação às atividades geomagnéticas caracterizadas pelo índice planetário (Kp) e pelas grandes tempestades (Dst) tanto em longos quanto em curtos prazos. Uma explicação sugerida associa a diminuição da atividade solar ao aumento da condutividade na atmosfera causada pelo maior fluxo de raios cósmicos. Consequentemente poderá ocorrer uma redução do limiar de voltagem necessário para produzir descargas atmosféricas para provocar desligamentos nas redes de alta voltagem. O circuito elétrico global descrito pelo acoplamento ionosfera-terra (a eletrosfera) exerce um papel importante para explicar a redução dos desligamentos. Com o aumento da condutividade atmosférica as descargas são menos potentes, resultando em menor número de desligamentos com o decréscimo do ciclo solar / Abstract: The current society dependence on the operating technological systems on the Earth brings a permanent concern for their vulnerability to not well known factors. Possible failures in electricity supply can cause inconveniences with large impact to the communities, which may cause significant financial losses. Different factors can cause failures in the transmission networks, including, climate factors. In this context, the influences of various qualitative factors, especially the effects of space weather are not well known. There are indications that space weather affects the upper atmosphere, with repercussions on the climate as well as in engineering systems in operation on Earth. High-voltage transmission networks represent large electrical circuits just above the ground which are subjected to a number of transient overcharges of various kinds, some of which may lead to failures. Some failures might be related to anomalies of the geophysical environment. In the present study we analyze a database consisting in a one unprecedented long series of transmission grid failures (nine years) on high-voltage networks located in São Paulo state (southeastern Brazil). The studied period (1998-2006) includes an important fraction of the solar activity cycle 23. The company responsible by the power grid operator (ISA.CTEEP) classifies causes in ninety-five distinct failure classes to explain the transmission grid shut downs. Most of the failures were attributed to atmospheric discharges. We have studied the failures attributed to atmospheric discharge, in the two power grids of the company, 138 kV and 440 kV. The failures attributed to atmospheric discharge correspond to 1.957 (42.80%) for a total 4.572 at 138 kV and to 170 (22.8%) out of 763 at 440 kV. They correspond to less than one ten thousandth of the actual number of atmospheric discharges recorded in the same area, demonstrating the grid's high resilience to breakdowns due to lightning. A clear concentration of failures in the region's thunderstorm season has been found. A significant 67% and 77% reduction in the number of failure rates has been found for the 138 and 440 kV grids, respectively, for the period studied, in good correspondence with the decay in the sunspot numbers. No obvious correlation was found between power failures and geomagnetic activity, represented by (Kp) the planetary index or major geomagnetic storms (Dst) in the period, either on short or on long time scales. One suggested explanation associates the decrease in solar activity to the increased conductivity in the atmosphere caused by increase cosmic ray flux. Consequently there may be a reduction in the threshold voltage necessary to produce discharge atmospheric to cause failures in high-voltage grids. The global electric circuit described by the ionosphere-ground coupling (the electrosphere), plays an important role in explaining the reduction the failures. With increase in conductivity atmospheric discharges are less potent, resulting in fewer failures with the decreasing solar cycle / Doutorado / Energia Eletrica / Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

L'étude des variations de l'activité solaire et de ses effets sur les environnements climatiques reste une question ouverte, en dépit des nombreux efforts des chercheurs dans les différents domaines de la science. Par ailleurs, l'activité solaire est notamment un aspect important pour comprendre les relations Soleil-Terre et l'espace interplanétaire. Son étude nécessite différents types d'approches basées sur de nombreux modèles physiques. Le sujet de cette thèse est l'étude des influences possibles des perturbations planétaires sur l'activité solaire.Dans cette thèse, on a d'abord rappelé quelques connaissances générales sur les observations solaires, qui consistent à compter le nombre de taches solaires observées à la surface du Soleil. Les observations ont commencé au début du XVIIème siècle et se poursuivent actuellement. L'activité solaire est ainsi mesurée par le nombre de taches solaires. La physique solaire et les différentes approches pour expliquer les relations entre les planètes et le Soleil sont aussi brièvement évoquées.On a ensuite tenté d'étudier le comportement de l'activité solaire à court, moyen et long terme en utilisant l'analyse en fréquences pour déterminer les principales périodes solaires connues. L'analyse en fréquences permet ainsi de reconstruire une solution pour l'activité solaire, qui reproduit son évolution à long terme. On a vérifié la correspondance de cette solution avec les données d'activité solaire ainsi qu'avec les relevés géologiques de radioisotopes. Les minima et maxima de l'activité solaire reconstruite par l'analyse en fréquences sont aussi en bon accord avec les évènements géologiques connus. De nombreux travaux ont cherché à expliquer les influences directes ou partielles, extérieures (planètes,...) ou intérieures (dynamo,...) sur les variations de l'activité solaire. Dans ce travail, on a cherché à voir si une partie des variations observées de l'activité solaire pouvait être expliqué par la théorie des perturbations planétaires. Les possibles marées planétaires, qui influencent les variations du cycle solaire, sont également étudiées. On a ainsi mis au point un modèle dynamique plus réaliste pour décrire l'effet de marée exercé par les perturbations planétaires sur la déformation de la surface non sphérique du Soleil et qui peut moduler partiellement son activité. On s'intéresse uniquement aux effets dynamiques des planètes sur le Soleil et le modèle ne prend ainsi pas en compte leurs processus physiques internes. Le Soleil a été considéré comme un corps triaxial homogène et les planètes comme des points matériels.La variation des coefficients du potentiel induit par l'effet des marées solides a été calculée en utilisant les dernières éphémérides planétaires INPOP, qui sont transformées pour correspondre au repère de référence ici considéré. Le calcul des expressions semi-analytiques des coefficients de déformation du potentiel a été effectué. Ainsi, les estimations des effets des marées planétaires de chacune des planètes ainsi que l'effet total résultant ont été comparées aux observations de l'activité solaire et à l'évolution de l'activité solaire obtenue par l'analyse en fréquences. Enfin, la corrélation entre les déformations de la surface du Soleil et les variations de l'activité solaire est discutée. / The causes of solar variations and their impact on climatic environments have been andstill are the subject of large debate. The possible influence of planetary perturbations on thesolar cycles have also been recently the subject of multiples controverses. The goal of thepresent thesis is to provide some insight on this problem by a new computation of the planetaryperturbations on the Sun, at short, middle and and long time scales.At first, we describe our current understanding of the physical causes of the solar activityand their major observable manifestations, such as the sun spots records. We provide somehistorical background for the numerous records of solar activity proxies. We also review thedifferent approaches to explain the solar planetary relationships through an analysis of thepublished literature.The main purpose of the present work is to study the possible influence of the planetarygravitational perturbations on the solar cycles. In a first part, we analyse the short, middle andlong term solar activity behavior by using the quasiperiodic approximations provided by thefrequency map analysis method to determine the main periodicities of the solar cycles. Thisallows us to provide some reconstruction of the long timescale changes of solar activity variation.The reconstructed activity series are compared with the observed solar activity data and thelong term natural archives such as radioisotopes proxies. The reconstructed series still preservethe well recorded historical grand minima and maxima events and provide us some extendeddata for the study of the long timescale evolution of solar cycles.There has already been some attempts to explain the direct or partial influences of anexternal (e.g., the planets ) or an internal (e.g., its dynamo) effects on the solar changes. In thepresent work, we investigate the planetary tidal influence on solar cycle variations. We havedeveloped a realistic dynamical model for describing the tidal effect exerted by the perturbationof the planets of the Solar system on the deformation of the non-spherical Sun’s surface whichmay partially modulate its activity variations. The model is limited to the dynamical effects ofthe planets on the Sun and do not take account any physical interior process of the Sun. TheSun is considered as an homogeneous three axial non spherical body.The variations of the potential coefficients induced by the effects of body tides are com-puted, using the last INPOP planetary ephemerides and the long term solutions La2004. Thesemi-analytical expressions of the deformation coefficients of potential are derived. Thus, theestimations of the planetary tides effects of each planets and their combinations are comparedto the solar activity records and their reconstructed series. Hence, the correlations between thevariations of the deformation of Sun’s surface and its activity records are discussed.

The ionospheric variability and its complexity is strongly dependent on continuous varying intense solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and UV radiations. We investigate the ionospheric response to the solar activity variations during the solar cycle (SC) 23 (1999-2008) and 24 (2009-2017) by using the F10.7 index, and Total Electron Content (TEC) maps provided by the international GNSS service (IGS). Wavelet cross-correlation method is used to evaluate the correlation between F10.7 and the global mean TEC. The maximum correlation is observed at the solar rotation time scale (16-32 days). There is a significant difference in the correlation at the time scale of 32-64 days. During SC 23, the correlation is stronger than during SC 24. This is probably due to the longer lifetime of active regions during SC 23. The wavelet variance estimation method suggests that the variance during SC 23 is more significant than during SC 24. Furthermore, the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (CTIPe) model was used to reproduce the ionospheric delay of about 1-2 days observed in the IGS TEC observations. A strong correlation was modelled as well as observed during a high solar activity year (2013) as compared to low a solar activity year (2008). / Die ionosphärische Variabilität ist stark abhängig von der kontinuierlich variierenden intensiven solaren extrem ultravioletten (EUV) und UV-Strahlung. Wir untersuchen die ionosphärische Reaktion auf Variationen der Sonnenaktivität während der Sonnenzyklen (SC) 23 (1999-2008) und 24 (2009-2017) mit Hilfe des F10.7-Radioflussindexes und TEC (Gesamtelektronengehalt, Total Electron Content) -Karten, die vom internationalen GNSS-Dienst (IGS) bereitgestellt werden. Wavelet-Kreuzkorrelation wird verwendet, um die Korrelation zwischen F10.7 und global gemitteltem TEC zu bestimmen. Die maximale Korrelation wird auf der Zeitskala der Sonnenrotation (16-32 Tage) beobachtet. Es gibt einen signifikanten Unterschied in der Korrelation auf der Zeitskala von 32 bis 64 Tagen. Während des SC 23 ist die Korrelation stärker als während SC 24. Dies ist auf die längere Lebensdauer der aktiven Regionen zurückzuführen. Das Wavelet-Varianz-Schätzverfahren legt nahe, dass die Varianz beim SC 23 mehr von Bedeutung ist, als während SC 24. Des Weiteren wurde das gekoppelte Thermosphäre-Ionosphäre-Plasmasphäre-Elektrodynamik (CTIPe) Modell verwendet, um die ionosphärische Verzögerung von 1-2 Tagen zu reproduzieren. Eine starke Korrelation wurde bei hoher Sonnenaktivität (2013) im Gegensatz zu geringer Sonnenaktivität (2008) simuliert und auch beobachtet.

No / The Solar Feature Catalogues (SFCs) are created from digitized solar images using automated pattern recognition techniques developed in the European Grid of Solar Observation (EGSO) project. The techniques were applied for detection of sunspots, active regions and filaments in the automatically standardized full-disk solar images in Caii K1, Caii K3 and H¿ taken at the Meudon Observatory and white-light images and magnetograms from SOHO/MDI. The results of automated recognition are verified with the manual synoptic maps and available statistical data from other observatories that revealed high detection accuracy. A structured database of the Solar Feature Catalogues is built on the MySQL server for every feature from their recognized parameters and cross-referenced to the original observations. The SFCs are published on the Bradford University web site http://www.cyber.brad.ac.uk/egso/SFC/ with the pre-designed web pages for a search by time, size and location. The SFCs with 9 year coverage (1996¿2004) provide any possible information that can be extracted from full disk digital solar images. Thus information can be used for deeper investigation of the feature origin and association with other features for their automated classification and solar activity forecast.

No / A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active." Building on earlier studies in this series in which we describe the methodology, details, and results of flare forecasting comparison efforts, we focus here on patterns of forecast outcomes (success and failure) over multiday periods. A novel analysis is developed to evaluate forecasting success in the context of catching the first event of flare-active periods and, conversely, correctly predicting declining flare activity. We demonstrate these evaluation methods graphically and quantitatively as they provide both quick comparative evaluations and options for detailed analysis. For the testing interval 2016-2017, we determine the relative frequency distribution of two-day dichotomous forecast outcomes for three different event histories (i.e., event/event, no-event/event, and event/no-event) and use it to highlight performance differences between forecasting methods. A trend is identified across all forecasting methods that a high/low forecast probability on day 1 remains high/low on day 2, even though flaring activity is transitioning. For M-class and larger flares, we find that explicitly including persistence or prior flare history in computing forecasts helps to improve overall forecast performance. It is also found that using magnetic/modern data leads to improvement in catching the first-event/first-no-event transitions. Finally, 15% of major (i.e., M-class or above) flare days over the testing interval were effectively missed due to a lack of observations from instruments away from the Earth-Sun line.

published_or_final_version / Architecture / Master / Master of Landscape Architecture

Abstract This thesis studies the long-term relation between the solar wind driven energetic particle forcing into the atmosphere and the tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The work covers the period of more than one hundred years since the turn of the 20th century to present. The thesis makes a statistical analysis of satellite measurements of precipitating energetic electrons, sunspot number data and geomagnetic activity, and compares them with temperature and pressure measurements made at the Earth's surface. Recent results, both observational and from chemistry climate models, have indicated significant effects in the Earth's middle atmosphere due to the energetic electrons precipitating from the magnetosphere. These effects include the formation of reactive hydrogen and nitrogen oxides in the high latitude mesosphere and the depletion of ozone caused by them. Ozone is a radiatively active and important gas, which affects the thermal structure and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Accordingly, the depletion of ozone can intensify the large scale stratospheric circulation pattern called the polar vortex. Winter weather conditions on the surface have been shown to be dependent on the polar vortex strength. This thesis shows that there is a significant relation between the average fluxes of medium energy (ten to hundred keVs) precipitating electrons and surface temperatures in parts of the Northern Hemisphere in winter time. Temperatures are positively correlated with electron fluxes in North Eurasia and negatively correlated in Greenland during the period 1980-2010 which is covered by direct satellite observations of precipitating particles. This difference is especially notable when major sudden stratospheric warmings and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which both are known to affect the polar vortex strength, are taken into account. When extended to the late 19th century, the analysis shows that a similar temperature pattern is predominated during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle. The high speed solar wind streams and energetic particle precipitation typically maximize also at the declining phase of the solar cycle. This specific temperature pattern is related to the variability of the northern annular mode (NAM), which is the most significant circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Before the space era, geomagnetic activity measured by ground observations can be used as a proxy for energetic particle precipitation. Earlier studies have found a significant positive correlation between geomagnetic activity and NAM since the 1960s. We find that, when the QBO measured at 30 hPa height is in the easterly phase, a positive correlation is extended to the beginning of 1900s. We also show that high geomagnetic activity causes a stronger effect in the Northern Hemisphere winter than high sunspot activity, especially in the Atlantic and Eurasia. A comprehensive knowledge of the Earth's climate system and all its drivers is crucial for the future projection of climate. Solar variability effects have been estimated to produce only a small factor to the global climate change. However, there is increasing evidence, including the results presented in this thesis, that the different forms of solar variability can have a substantial effect to regional and seasonal climate variability. With this new evidence, the solar wind related particle effects in the atmosphere are now gaining increasing attention. These effects will soon be included in the next coupled model inter comparison project (CMIP6) as an additional solar related climate effect. This emphasizes the relevance of this thesis.