This study contributes to developing terrestrial and marine palynological indicators of winter or summer monsoon signals as well as oceanographic environments of the South China Sea (SCS). The high-resolution reconstructions of Holocene East Asian Monsoon (EAM) climate and oceanographic condition of the northern SCS provide insights into regional climate events in the western low-latitude Pacific Ocean and their impacts on local oceanography and ecology. Sediment trap samples from the southwest Taiwan waters of the SCS in winter monsoon (March-April) and summer monsoon (July-August) seasons identify abundances of Pinus and Ulmus pollen as indicators of the winter monsoon whereas fern spores appeared to be indicators of the summer monsoon. The increased fluxes of dinoflagellate cyst (DC) taxa during summer are correlated with decreased sea-surface salinity (SSS) associated with nutrient-rich river inputs. DC distributions across the SCS show that some taxa are good indicators of changes in sea-surface temperature (SST), SSS, water depth and chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentrations associated with EAM and oceanographic conditions. In particular, the concenrations of Brigantedinium spp. and cysts of Protoperidinium together with Echinidinium spp. are positively correlatd with SST in January and SST in July, and chl-a concentrations, respectively, which are linked to past monsoon strength and primary productivity. In total, four high cyst concentration regions have been observed off southern Vietnam, Borneo, Hainan, and South China. High-resolution palynological records from a sediment core in the northern SCS reflect several EAM climatic and oceanographic events over the last 12.5 kyr. A short-term Impagidinium decrease implied that the Taiwan Strait opened at ~11.7–11.0 cal kyr BP, with reduced Kuroshio Current influence when the East China Sea waters entered through the strait. Three Holocene relative sea-level stages were identified in the palynomorph records. The highest herb pollen abundances were observed before ~10.4 cal kyr BP, reflecting the shortest distance from the grassland sources on the exposed shelf at the low sea-level stand. High Brigantedinium and cysts of Protoperidinium abundances also indicate a near-shore environment. During ~10.4- ~6.8-6.0 cal kyr BP at the rising sea-level stage, fern spore abundances increased and DC abundances decreased. Consistently low total DC concentrations and high fern spore abundance were observed after ~6.8-6.0 cal kyr BP when the present oceanographic conditions were formed. Increased abundances of Pinus pollen reflected three strengthened winter monsoon intervals at ~5.5, 4.0 and 2.5 cal kyr BP under the present oceanographic conditions. The highest Dapsilidinium pastielsii abundances reflected the warmest interval at ~6.8-5.5 cal kyr BP of the northern SCS. / Graduate / 2019-12-13

O presente trabalho visa analisar a tensa relação sino-americana no Mar do Sul da China. Para tanto, começa por trazer as principais características que tornam este mar o epicentro dos novos conflitos na região Ásia-Pacífico, para em seguida, por meio de conceitos inovadores, verificar os reais interesses sino-americanos em jogo, no Mar do Sul da China. Em esforço exemplificativo da “disputa” entre Washington e Beijing naquele Mar, trazemos o Impeccable Incident, para no fecho conclusivo da pesquisa, analisar se a tensa relação sino-americana é fruto de um determinado padrão, ou apenas uma ruptura nas políticas externas dos dois países. / The present paper analyzes the tense sino-american relationship in the South China Sea. To do so, we start by bringing the main features that make this Sea, the “epicenter” of the new maritime conflicts in the region of Pacific-Asia, for then through innovative concepts, verify the real sino-american interests in the South China Sea. In an exemplary effort concerning the "dispute" between Washington and Beijing on that Sea, we bring the Impeccable Incident, for in the ending chapter analyze whether the tense sino-american relationship is the result of a pattern, or just a rupture in the external policies of the two countries.

Este trabalho possui como tema a política externa da Indonésia, constituindo-se como um estudo de caso. A dissertação está estruturada em três capítulos. O primeiro procura identificar os elementos estruturais que condicionam a inserção internacional do país. O segundo capítulo aborda a situação regional do sudeste asiático, avaliando a influência da ascensão chinesa e a atuação de demais potências extrarregionais: Estados Unidos, Japão, Coreia do Sul, Austrália, Índia e Rússia. O terceiro capítulo tem por objetivo analisar a formulação da política externa indonésia, levando em consideração os pontos descritos nos capítulos anteriores. Metodologicamente, partiu-se de uma livre operacionalização do método das três imagens de Kenneth Waltz (o Homem, o Estado e a Guerra). Por fim, conclui-se que o aumento do número de potências e da anarquia oferece paradoxalmente uma janela de oportunidade para uma atuação mais autônoma da Indonésia no Sistema Internacional. / This work has as its theme the foreign policy of Indonesia, constituting itself as a case study. The dissertation is divided into three chapters. The first seeks to identify the structural elements that affect the international integration of the country. The second chapter discusses the regional situation in Southeast Asia, assessing the influence of China's rise and the action of other extra-regional powers: the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and Russia. The third chapter aims to analyze the formulation of Indonesian foreign policy, taking into account the points described in the previous chapters. Methodologically, it uses a free adaptation of the three images method of Kenneth Waltz (Man, State and War). Finally, it is concluded that the increasing number of powers and anarchy, paradoxically offers a window of opportunity for a more independent role of Indonesia in the International System.

O presente trabalho visa analisar a tensa relação sino-americana no Mar do Sul da China. Para tanto, começa por trazer as principais características que tornam este mar o epicentro dos novos conflitos na região Ásia-Pacífico, para em seguida, por meio de conceitos inovadores, verificar os reais interesses sino-americanos em jogo, no Mar do Sul da China. Em esforço exemplificativo da “disputa” entre Washington e Beijing naquele Mar, trazemos o Impeccable Incident, para no fecho conclusivo da pesquisa, analisar se a tensa relação sino-americana é fruto de um determinado padrão, ou apenas uma ruptura nas políticas externas dos dois países. / The present paper analyzes the tense sino-american relationship in the South China Sea. To do so, we start by bringing the main features that make this Sea, the “epicenter” of the new maritime conflicts in the region of Pacific-Asia, for then through innovative concepts, verify the real sino-american interests in the South China Sea. In an exemplary effort concerning the "dispute" between Washington and Beijing on that Sea, we bring the Impeccable Incident, for in the ending chapter analyze whether the tense sino-american relationship is the result of a pattern, or just a rupture in the external policies of the two countries.

Este trabalho possui como tema a política externa da Indonésia, constituindo-se como um estudo de caso. A dissertação está estruturada em três capítulos. O primeiro procura identificar os elementos estruturais que condicionam a inserção internacional do país. O segundo capítulo aborda a situação regional do sudeste asiático, avaliando a influência da ascensão chinesa e a atuação de demais potências extrarregionais: Estados Unidos, Japão, Coreia do Sul, Austrália, Índia e Rússia. O terceiro capítulo tem por objetivo analisar a formulação da política externa indonésia, levando em consideração os pontos descritos nos capítulos anteriores. Metodologicamente, partiu-se de uma livre operacionalização do método das três imagens de Kenneth Waltz (o Homem, o Estado e a Guerra). Por fim, conclui-se que o aumento do número de potências e da anarquia oferece paradoxalmente uma janela de oportunidade para uma atuação mais autônoma da Indonésia no Sistema Internacional. / This work has as its theme the foreign policy of Indonesia, constituting itself as a case study. The dissertation is divided into three chapters. The first seeks to identify the structural elements that affect the international integration of the country. The second chapter discusses the regional situation in Southeast Asia, assessing the influence of China's rise and the action of other extra-regional powers: the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and Russia. The third chapter aims to analyze the formulation of Indonesian foreign policy, taking into account the points described in the previous chapters. Methodologically, it uses a free adaptation of the three images method of Kenneth Waltz (Man, State and War). Finally, it is concluded that the increasing number of powers and anarchy, paradoxically offers a window of opportunity for a more independent role of Indonesia in the International System.

In the last decade China has transformed itself into a maritime power. It is well established that the appointment of Xi-Jinping as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist in 2013 has been effective in rivalling the U.S Pivot to Asia of 2012 concerning the hegemonic dominance of the highly contested South China Sea region. The thesis aims to demonstrate how emerging powers like China are ready to exhibit methods of soft and hard power to liberate contested waters worth billions of unclaimed dollars of hydrocarbon resources beneath its seabed to showcase how an emerging power is ready to challenge an established power for regional hegemony. A combination of both qualitative and quantitative data has been used to examine Chinese power projection in the South China Sea with relation to their actions in terms of modernisation of their naval fleet, hedging of multilateral institutions and artificial constructions in disputed territories. In sum, a theoretical in depth analysis on how control over the South China Sea is crucial to long term Chinese security. .

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L'upwelling du Sud Vietnam (SVU) joue un rôle clef dans la dynamique océanique et la productivité biologique en Mer de Chine du Sud. Cette thèse vise à quantifier la variabilité interannuelle du SVU et identifier les facteurs et mécanismes en jeu. Pour cela, un jeu de simulations numériques pluri-annuelles à haute résolution a été utilisé. Le réalisme du modèle a été évalué et optimisé par comparaison aux observations in-situ et satellites. Les résultats montrent que la grande variabilité du SVU est fortement pilotée par le rotationnel du vent estival, et liée à l'oscillation ENSO via son impact sur le vent. Cependant, cette influence du vent est significativement modulée par la variabilité intrinsèque océanique liée aux interactions entre la vorticité associée aux tourbillons océaniques et le vent, et dans une moindre mesure par la circulation océanique de grande échelle et les fleuves. Ces conclusions sont robustes aux choix effectués pour corriger la dérive de surface du modèle. / The summer South Vietnam Upwelling (SVU) is a major component of the South China Sea circulation that also influences the ecosystems. The objectives of this thesis are first to quantitatively assess the interannual variability of the SVU in terms of intensity and spatial extent, second to quantify the respective contributions from different factors (atmospheric, river and oceanic forcings; ocean intrinsic variability OIV; El-Niño Southern Oscillation ENSO) to the SVU interannual variability, and third to identify and examine the underlying physical mechanisms. To fulfill these goals we use a set of sensitivity eddy-resolving simulations of the SCS circulation performed with the ROMS_AGRIF ocean regional model at 1/12° resolution for the period 1991-2004. The ability of the model to realistically represent the water masses and dynamics of the circulation in the SCS and SVU regions was first evaluated by comparison with available satellite and in-situ observations. We then defined a group of sea-surface-temperature upwelling indices to quantify in detail the interannual variability of the SVU in terms of intensity, spatial distribution and duration. Our results reveal that strong SVU years are offshore-dominant with upwelling centers located in the area within 11-12oN and 110-112oE, whereas weak SVU years are coastal-dominant with upwelling centers located near the coast and over a larger latitude range (10-14oN). The first factor that triggers the strength and extent of the SVU is the summer wind curl associated with the summer monsoon. However, its effect is modulated by several factors including first the OIV, whose contribution reaches 50% of the total SVU variability, but also the river discharge and the remote ocean circulation. The coastal upwelling variability is strongly related to the variability of the eastward jet that develops from the coast. The offshore upwelling variability is impacted by the spatio-temporal interactions of the ocean cyclonic eddies with the wind stress curl, which are responsible for the impact of the OIV. The ocean and river forcing also modulate the SVU variability due to their contribution to the eddy field variability. ENSO has a strong influence on the SVU, mainly due to its direct influence on the summer wind. Those results regarding the interannual variability of the SVU are robust to the choice of the surface bias correction method used in the model. We finally present in Appendix-A2 preliminary results about the impacts of tides.

自二十世紀四○年代末期以來，菲律賓對中共的外交政策與菲中關係經歷了戲劇性的變化，大致可以分為4個時期：從二十世紀四○年代末到六○年代末和七○年代初的近20年，親美主義與反共的意識形態形成了這一時期菲律賓的對外政策，意識形態與國家安全則是菲國對中共政策的主要考量，菲律賓奉行對中共完全「隔離」的冷戰政策；從七○年代初到九○年代初的近20年中，隨著冷戰體系的逐漸坍塌，菲律賓對外政策從重意識形態和政治轉向為發展外交，從而決定與中共建交，而國家安全在菲中關係中的作用則下降；從九○年代初到二十一世紀初，菲中關係由於後冷戰時期東亞地區格局的變動，以及菲中在南海的爭端，菲國再次評估中共對其國家安全的影響，從而又一次調整與美國的關係，希望借助美國的力量來制衡中共；而自2001年亞羅育總統上台以來，開啟了菲中關係的新時代，雙方建立了戰略合作伙伴關係，步入了雙邊關係的「黃金時期」，並延續至現任總統艾奎若三世。 在菲中關係的4個歷史時期，意識形態、美國因素、共產黨活動、歷史遺產、華僑華人、領海爭端、臺灣問題、政治結構、經濟關係等一系列因素從國內與國際的層面相互關聯和作用，此消彼長，共同影響了菲律賓的對中共外交政策。 就菲中關係發展的未來趨勢而言，菲中關係將主要受菲國國內政治的影響，傳統的美國因素仍不容忽視，同時，雙方在南海上的爭端儘管暫時擱置，但仍充滿不確定性，這些因素都限制了菲中關係的發展，但中共仍然可以在很大程度上利用菲律賓國內的政治、經濟需求來主導未來菲中關係的發展。 / Philippines’ China Policy and Philippines-Sino relations have undergone dramatic changes since the World WarII., and can be divided into four phrases. During the first period, from the late 1940s to the late 1960s and early 70s, the Pro-U.S. principal and anti-communist ideology, two factors formed the Philippines’ foreign policy. Ideology and national security were Philippines’ prime considerations, Philippines pursued a fully isolation Policy towards China. During the second phrase, from the early 1970s and the early 1990s, with the gradual collapse of the Cold War system, Philippines’ foreign policy has shifted from ideology-centric to politics-centric, the development of diplomacy has become the leading foreign policy thought, the above policy based on national security and ideology was declined, in this context, Philippines finally opened its door to People Republic of China. The third phrase started from the early 1990s and ended at the beginning of the21st century, during which Philippines’ idea on national security was reshaped the new structure of East Asia in the post-Cold War times, and the dispute between Philippines and PRC, Philippines re-evaluated PRC’s influence to her national security. Philippines hoped to introduce USA’s power to balance China in this region. A new time for Philippines-Sino was activated since President Arroyo came into power in 2001, in this period, both sides agreed to establish strategic partner relations in 2004. The Philippine-Sino relation has reached the “Golden Era” and continued up to now the president Aquino III. In the four stages of Philippines-Sino relations, ideology, the United States, the Communist Party of the Philippines and its rebellion, historical heritage, and overseas Chinese, territorial dispute, Taiwan issue, Philippines’ political structure, economic relations and other factors, interact and intersect from the international level and national level, and finally decide Philippines’ China Policy. As far as the future of bilateral relations between Philippines and PRC is concerned, though mostly decided by domestic politics, Philippines-Sino relations cannot yet break away from historic factors like America. And even though the two sides have put away the South China Sea dispute, it still remained so many uncertainties. All these factors have limited the developments of Philippines-Sino relations. Anyway, China still can, to great extend, lead the to-be relations through its strong economic and political power.