This dissertation aims to discover the hidden pattern and rationales behind China's South China Sea policies over the last one hundred years from the perspective of Chinese strategic culture. A historical-cultural approach is a powerful tool in uncovering deeper understandings of the Chinese way of policy making and strategy on issues such as the South China Sea. The key research questions include: first, is there any historical legitimacy in China's sovereignty claim over the South China Sea islands? Second, do Beijing's South China Sea policies in various periods have any regularity or pattern, and how did they serve China's grand strategies at the time? By utilizing extensive Chinese and English primary sources and other sources, this study conducts a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the South China Sea issue from the framework of Chinese strategic culture.

1945年《聯合國憲章》賦予國家有義務針對彼此爭端協議和平解決爭端之方法，並且有權自由選擇和平方法解決爭端。1982年《聯合國海洋法公約》進一步確認《聯合國憲章》的和平解決爭端規範，並在尊重國家主權原則的前提下，特別載明一套關鍵維持世界海洋法制穩定存續的強制爭端解決規定。 中國大陸與東協各國於2002年針對日益激化的南海爭端簽訂《南海各方行為宣言》，其中明文重申《聯合國憲章》以及《海洋法公約》等國際法規範下的和平解決爭端原則。爾後，南海爭端隨著大國政治的發展與抗衡而顯得更加動盪，菲律賓進一步在2013年初將與中國大陸的南海爭端提交到《海洋法公約》強制仲裁程序來解決。因此，本文探討既存的《南海行為宣言》是否構成強制仲裁庭的管轄權障礙，來保障國家有自主選擇爭端解決方式的權利？又《南海行為宣言》在陸菲南海爭端中扮演何種和平解決爭端的角色，並且其意義與不足之處為何？ 在此問題意識下，首先就爭端標的進行分析，採取以國際關係及仲裁庭的角度來檢視陸菲南海爭端的性質。以國際關係的角度來檢視能發揮以下三個作用：一、理解爭端國在國際政治中的實力評估；二、檢視小國採取司法利用，以及與大國結盟以增加抗衡大國之談判籌碼及獲取法律正當性的策略；三、同時考量所涉爭端的政治與法律性質。另一方面，以仲裁庭的角度來檢視則能瞭知法院如何以國際公法原則來判斷爭端性質。 其次整理《海洋法公約》爭端解決機制以及《南海行為宣言》的內容，分析《海洋法公約》強制爭端解決機制設計的立意與《南海行為宣言》的制訂脈絡，得出《南海行為宣言》在《海洋法公約》的規範下僅為一載有「斡旋」精神的協議，爭端解決的責任仍舊交由簽署國解決。 此外，進一步再藉由仲裁庭的裁判，來分析《南海行為宣言》的法律性質。最後本文發現，中國大陸與東協各國所制訂的《南海行為宣言》僅為一重申既存和平解決規範精神的不具法律拘束力之文件，且未替簽署國創設必須由談判來解決爭端的義務。 最後，對於《南海行為宣言》作出整體評價，其彰顯具有國際法所承認之斡旋精神，展現其類似軟法性質的衝突預防之功能，然而《南海行為宣言》不具有法律實質拘束力，因而無法排除基於《海洋法公約》所提起的強制司法管轄。縱然如此，在「跨國法制歷程」概念中，《南海行為宣言》並非毫無建樹，其為透過各國「互動」而產生一行為模式之規範，然而《南海行為宣言》制訂後至仲裁庭啟動期間，並未使得相關國家對該規範進行有力「內化」的工程，使得該項規範的原則無法發揮效用。然此部分之推論尚待進一步詳細論證分析。 綜上所述，本文透過對於《南海行為宣言》之相關分析，認為我方在擬定未來南海政策時應在尊重各國主權原則的前提下，提升自身國家綜合實力以增加對外談判之籌碼，同時應增進國際法中關於和平解決爭端之研究，有效在各種方面落實國際法爭端解決規範的內化進程。

摘要 本研究採用賽局理論 (stag-hunt model) 來推論假設南海海上交通線 (SLOCs) 安全合作的情形．根據結果顯示，爭奪南海的國家，其解決衝突最好的策略應以合作的方式來提昇無論是在石油進口、貿易活動以及該地區船隻航行等方面的安全性。 為縮短假設情境與現實情況的差距，一方面，我們找出海上交通線安全合作之難點：主權、資源、和軍事發展；另一方面，也提出能促進其合作的正面因素：舊有的海上聯合巡邏、非傳統安全合作相關領堿、以及未來的南海行為準則 (SCS COC)。 最後我們介紹了「南海太平島提案」，試圖建立與協調新的海上聯合巡邏來降低該地區的緊張關係，建立彼此之間的信任，並改善衝突的情況。 根據本研究結論表示，我們的研究發現以及一些政策將能協助實施南海海上交通線安全的合作。 / Abstract This research applies game theory (stag-hunt model) to a hypothetical situation of cooperation on Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) protection in South China Sea (SCS). The results indicate that, in theory, the best option for all disputant countries in the issue is to cooperate in order to increase the security of their oil imports, trade, and ships crossing the region. To overcome the gap between the theoretical model and the reality, we have identified those factors that will hinder the implementation of cooperation on SLOCs protection, sovereignty, resources, and military development; as well as those that can be used to counterbalance the effect of negative ones, previous joint maritime patrols, non-traditional security cooperation, and the future South China Sea Code of Conduct (SCS COC). Finally, we have presented the South China Sea Peace Island Initiative, a proposal to coordinate and create new joint maritime patrols in the region as a mean to reduce tensions, build confidence, and improve the relationship between disputants. We conclude presenting the main findings of this research, as well as those policies that will be useful to implement cooperation on SLOCs protection in SCS.

“21世紀海上絲綢之路”倡議與絲綢之路經濟帶的傳輸紐帶關係，發展成為“一帶一路”倡議，為中共在2013年所提出的戰略構想。 就美國而言，由於其經濟實力受金融危機影響減弱，透過積極干涉南海爭端，可協助其順利推進亞太戰略轉向，強化本國在東亞地區的權力基礎，並制約中國勢力擴張。相對於中共來說，應有效應對美國實施重返亞太戰略可能產生的各種不利影響。 本文探討對於共同建設的“21世紀海上絲綢之路”倡議，需要沿線各國與經濟體共同努力，願景需要由政治互信不斷增強，未來發展建置議程，共同促進聯合行動方案的互聯互通。 / The initiative of “One belt, one Road” means the economic belt of Land route of Silk Road connecting Mainland China with the countries of Central Asia and the transport ties of the Maritime Silk Road connecting Mainland China with the countries of ASEAN, which has been making a strategic formulation put forward by the People's Republic of China since 2013. The impact of islands disputes between China and Philippines on the security of South China Sea, as far as the United States is concerned, with its economic strength weakened by the financial crisis, by proactively interfering with that, it helps successfully reorient its regional strategy, strengthen the U.S. power base in East Asia, and prevent China from expanding further. On the other side, to the PRC., effective strategies should be put forward to all kinds of disadvantageous influences of America's returning to the Asia-Pacific region. This article argues that jointly building the initiative of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is required all parties to work together, the vision needs to be built for future development by increasing political mutual trust as well as development agenda so as to jointly promote inter connectivity.

Le but de cette étude est de retracer l’évolution de l’hydrologie dans la partie occidentale de l’Océan Pacifique subtropical en utilisant le proxy εNd analysé sur les foraminifères et sur les oxydes de ferromanganèse authigéniques dans les sédiments. Ceux-ci proviennent de carottes sédimentaires prélevées au nord de la Mer de Chine du Sud (MCS). Avant d’utiliser l’εNd dans les sédiments profonds de la MCS, 16 profils d’eau de mer, collectés au nord de la MCS et dans le Mer des Philippines, ont été analysés afin d’établir la distribution d’εNd des masses d’eau dans l’ouest du Pacifique tropical et dans la MCS, qui jusqu’à aujourd’hui n’était pas documentée. Les valeurs d’εNd des masses d’eau profondes et intermédiaires varient de -2,7 à -4,4 et augmentent légèrement avec la profondeur. Dans la mer des Philippines, les valeurs d’εNd de l’eau intermédiaire du Pacifique Nord (North Pacific Intermediate Water, NPIW) atteint -2.7±0.4 à moyenne profondeur (500 à 1400m). En-dessous de de 1800m, l’eau profonde Pacifique (Pacific Deep Water, PDW) est caractérisée par du Nd moins radiogénique (-4.1±0.5), indiquant l’intrusion de masses d’eau australes. Pour la plupart des stations du nord de la MCS, les masses d’eau en-dessous de 1500m (PDW) affichent des valeurs d’εNd homogènes (~ -4.1), similaires à celles de la PDW dans la Mer des Philippines. Les valeurs d'εNd pour l'eau intermédiaire de la mer de Chine du Sud (South China Sea Intermediate Water, SCSIW, 500-1500m) varient entre -3.0 et -3.9 dû au mélange vertical de la NPIW avec la PDW. Les valeurs d'εNd de l'eau de mer dans la MCS (-5.3 à -7.0) affichent des modifications locales dans des zones où l'eau s'écoule au-dessus de systèmes de dépôt sédimentaire. Ceci implique que "l'échange à la marge" avec des sédiments non radiogéniques (autour de -11) peut se produire dans le temps et dans l'espace sans modifier la composition isotopique du Nd de la PDW dans le Nord de la MCS. Dans un second temps, l’εNd extrait des foraminifères planctoniques G. ruber a été étudié sur la carotte MD05-2904, collectée à 2000m de profondeur sur la marge nord-ouest de la MCS. Cette étude a été conduite dans le but de retracer les variations hydrologiques depuis le Dernier Maximum Glaciaire (DMG) dans la partie occidentale du Pacifique Nord subtropical. Les enregistrements d'εNd ainsi obtenus couvrent les derniers 25 000 ans. Ils affichent une large gamme de valeurs de -4±0.2 à -6.7±0.3, suggérant d'importants changements dans la contribution de la NPDW (εNd=-4) et de la UCDW (Upper circumpolar Deep Water, εNd -6 to -8) dans la zone étudiée. Durant la déglaciation, les enregistrements d'εNd indiquent une diminution des excursions négatives de l'εNd impliquant une plus forte proportion de SSW (Southern-sourced Water) entre 17 et 15 ka BP ainsi qu'entre 10 et 8 ka BP. Ces intervalles de temps sont contemporains de l’évènement Heinrich 1 (HS1) et de l’Holocène inférieur. Les shifts négatifs centrés sur le HS1 coïncident avec un phénomène d'upwelling renforcé dans l'océan austral, associé à un déplacement vers le pôle des vents d'ouest. Ceci implique une augmentation de la formation de la SSW qui se propage dans l'Ouest du Pacifique subtropical. L'excursion négative de l'εNd durant l’Holocène inferieur (~10-8 cal ka BP) indique une plus grande proportion de SSW qui pourrait être associée avec une plus forte production de SSW, comme observé récemment dans l'atlantique Sud, et/ou avec une possible réduction de la NPIW. Nos données suggèrent que le schéma de circulation actuel dans la partie occidental du Pacifique subtropical s'est mis en place il y a 4600 ans. / The aim of this study is to reconstruct the evolution of the hydrology of the western subtropical North Pacific Ocean by using εNd proxy analysed on foraminifera and dispersed authigenic ferromanganese oxide precipitates in sediments from deep-sea cores collected in the northern SCS. Before using the εNd proxy on deep sea sediments of the SCS, Nd of 16 seawater profiles collected in the northern South China Sea (SCS) and the Philippine Sea were investigated to establish the εNd distribution of water masses along the tropical western Pacific and the SCS that, until now have not been documented. εNd values for mid- and deep-water masses of the Philippine Sea and the SCS range from -2.7 to -4.4 and generally increase slightly with water depth. In the Philippine Sea, εNd values for the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) reach- 2.7±0.4 at mid-depths (500 to 1400 m). Below ~1800 m, the Pacific Deep Water (PDW) is characterized by less radiogenic Nd (-4.1±0.5) indicating the instrusion of southern sourced water masses. For most of the stations in the Northern SCS, water masses below 1500m (PDW) display homogenous εNd values (~ -4.1) similar to those of the PDW in the Philippine Sea. εNd values for the South China Sea Intermediate Water (SCSIW, 500-1500m) vary from -3.0 to -3.9 as a result of the vertical mixing of the NPIW with the PDW in the SCS. Seawater εNd values for the SCS (~5.3 to -7.0) display local modification in areas where the water lies above sediment drift deposit systems. This implies that “boundary exchange” with unradiogenic sediments (around~11) may occur temporally and spatially and does not modify he Nd isotopic composition of the PDW in the Northern SCS. In a second step, seawater εNd extracted from cleaned planktonic foraminifera G. ruber has been investigated on core MD05-2904, collected at a deph of 2000m on the north-western margin of the SCS. This study was undertaken in order to reconstruct hydrological variations since the LGM in the western subtropical North Pacific. The εNd records obtained from foraminifera spanning the past 25kyr. Display a wide range of values, ranging from -4±0.2 to -6.7±0.3, suggesting important changes in the contribution of the NPDW (εNd=-4) and the UCDW (εNd -6 to -8) in the subtropical western Pacific. During the period of deglaciation, εNd records indicate a relative decrease in the negative excursions of the εNd implying a higher proportion of SSW during the time intervals 17-15 cal kyr BP and 10-8 cal kyr BP; these intervals are coeval with the HS1 and early Holocene. The negative shifts centered on the HS1coincide with an enhanced upwelling in the Southern Ocean, associated with a polewards shift of the southern westerlies, inducing an enhanced formation of the SSW that propagates to the subtropical western Pacific. The negative excursion of the εNd during the Early Holocene (~10-8 cal kyr BP) indicates a higher relative proportion of SSW that could be associate with higher production of the SSW, as has been recently observed in the South Atlantic, and/or with a possible reduction of the NPIW. Our data suggest that the present modern circulation pattern in the western subtropical Pacific Ocean was fully established after 4.6 cal kyr BP.

本研究旨在探討中國大陸如何運用經濟工具與菲律賓、越南應處南海爭端。參照Keohane及Nye非對稱互賴理論（asymmetrical interdependence）提出之敏感性（sensitivity）、脆弱性（vulnerability）概念，本研究分析中國大陸自1997年採取「魅力攻勢（Charm Offensive）」策略，為其創造可供運用經濟誘因（economic attraction）及經濟脅迫（economic coercion）之戰略空間，期能使菲、越等經濟實力相對弱勢國家，在領土爭端方面知所退讓。然而，從經濟誘因之敏感性以觀，研究發現菲、越兩國例證，均無以支持經濟誘因能說服相對弱勢國家減緩聲索之論述。針此，研究者提出「信任（trust）」或可作為補強Keohane及Nye分析框架要項之一；意即中國大陸與其經濟夥伴之間若政治信任不足，則中國大陸欲藉提供經濟誘因，促其經濟夥伴在領土爭端有所退讓，勢必存在相當難度。另從經濟脅迫之脆弱性以觀，研究發現菲、越兩國例證顯示，有別於運用實質性手段（substantive measures）施壓造成之短期損失，採取象徵性手段（symbolic measures）所映射之高度風險與不確定性，對於威懾經濟實力相對弱勢國家，可能更具效力。 / This study explores how China has employed economic instruments in handling South China Sea disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam. Borrowing Keohane and Nye’s notations of sensitivity and vulnerability in asymmetrical interdependence, this study analyzes how China’s charm offensive strategy developed since 1997 has created tactical spaces for China to utilize economic attractions and economic coercions in making her weaker economic partners to concede in territorial disputes. In terms of sensitivity to economic attractions, nevertheless, findings in both cases fail to support the argument that economic incentives would persuade the weaker parties to refrain their claims. I argue that one of the missing elements in Keohane and Nye’s analytical framework is “trust”. Without sufficient political “trust” between China and her economic partners, economic attractions to induce concessions could hardly work. In terms of vulnerability to economic coercions, findings in both cases suggest that compared to the substantive measures stressing the short-term loss, the symbolic measures projecting to high degree of risks and uncertainties might be more effective to deter the weaker parties.

從1982年之《國際海洋法公約》規定相關國家在爭議之海域劃界達成協議之前，有權利就爭議海域的管理和開發做出臨時性的安排。而共同開發正是作為一種解決海域劃界爭端而被廣泛採用的臨時性辦法，共同開發方案一經提出便得到了國際實踐的認同。 通過國際實踐案例的分析，並從中汲取國際共同開發成功案例中的經驗和啟示，總結出國際共同開發的管理模式及其特點並促進我國參與南海油氣共同開發，強化與周邊國家區域利益協調和合作局勢，積極推動共同開發合作建立，避免南海周邊國家避開我國簽訂雙邊或多邊協議去侵占我國南海油氣資源及海域主權，並就我國南海管轄權範圍內積極進行合作以維護我國在南海的海洋權利。 / 1982’s International Law of the sea has prescribed that the related countries are liable to make every effort to make an interim arrangement upon the management and utilization of maritime space after coming an agreement on maritime delimitation. Joint development that is the interim arrangement with broad adoption on solving the dispute of maritime delimitation, which now has been acknowledged in international practices. Through analyzing the international cases, and the ultimate goal of this paper is that R.O.C will learn the experience and inspiration from the successful international joint development model, effectively accelerate the joint development of oil and gas, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of regional benefit with surrounding countries, and actively promote the joint development and cooperation to establish, to avoid the neighboring countries of the South China Sea to avoid bilateral or multilateral agreements signed to occupy Republic of China's oil and gas resources and sea sovereignty, and within the jurisdiction of China's South China Sea within the active cooperation to safeguard Republic of China's maritime rights in the South China Sea.

A current topic of international debate among western geopolitical scholars concerns whether recent demonstrations of Chinese naval power represent China's adoption of an outwardly aggressive maritime strategy which might require a reactive change of approach by western nations in dealing with Southeast Asian trading interests. This paper analyzes recent developments in Chinese maritime strategy in order to determine whether the strategy is actually offensive or defensive. Drawing on a realist interpretation of international relations, a geo- strategic evaluation of the Chinese state, and a detailed understanding of the principles of maritime strategy, this paper addresses the inherent difficulty in distinguishing between offensive and defensive maritime strategies given that maritime states naturally develop power-projection forces in order to protect their Sea Lanes of Communication and maritime commerce. In an effort to discern the strategic intent underlying China's modern naval activity, this paper establishes an independent vision of China's optimal defensive maritime strategy based on the state's current threat environment, and compares those results against recent investments in China's naval power. By examining the congruency of these two positions, this work offers a contextualized...

Energy security is an important phenomenon of the contemporary world. A significant number of oil and gas reserves are located on the seabed. Expansion of oil and gas drilling to deeper and from shore more remote locations can again raise the question of ownership of these deposits. On one hand, there are regions of the world where these disputes over borders of maritime territories escalate into a series of clashes and incidents. On the other hand, there are other areas where states can settle their disputes and cooperate on drilling. The goal of this study is to determine which factors lead to the fact that particularly in the South China Sea disagreement about the boundaries of maritime territories results in the escalation of disputes in comparison with the regions of the North Sea and the Caribbean Sea, where disputes are solved or minimized. These factors are represented by six variables, which are based on three theories: a realist, idealist and constructivist theory of international relations. The first part of this study describes the historical development of current international maritime law with regard to the territorial division of the world's oceans. It is followed by a description of three case areas. The second part deals with the theoretical foundations of the examined factors. In...

摘要 近十年來，北京已轉變它在東南亞區域的外交政策，希望與東盟成員國家能維持一定的良好關係，並發展出一個和平又互利的戰略夥伴關係。1997年到2012年之間，中國與東盟從建立對話機制開始，雙方實質上的經貿投資與聯合計畫都快速增長。從多方面顯示：不僅在政治、經濟與維持區域安全等方面，中國與東盟成員都已共享務實的合作成果，近來更大力拓展雙方的互連互通與交通基礎建設，期使共同邁向實質的中國－東盟戰略夥伴關係。 南中國海周邊各國的利害與衝突不一，是個複雜的區域；而中國與東盟成員之間的對話機制與合作關係的基礎上，有助於減緩此一緊張情勢。本報將採用文獻分析的定性研究方法告指出（實際上）（1）北京的東南亞外交政策正面臨的主要挑戰是有東盟以外國家新勢力的強力介入或是舊有勢力的急速恢復，進而互相抗衡。（2）中國被稱為有過分自信的政策規劃期間，北京在推動與東盟戰略夥伴關係，實際上中國與東盟成員關系都已共享務實的合作成果。 / Abstract China-ASEAN relations have been transformed over the last decade by Beijing’s aim to create a stable neighboring environment as outlined in its state policy of peaceful development. This relationship has been embodied in a series of joint plans and statements with ASEAN between 1997 and 2012. In the three areas of politics and security, economy, and connectivity and infrastructure, the paper will show the relationship has followed a similar pattern, that is cooperation has been deepened according to China’s aims for its relationship with Southeast Asia. While relations have continued to develop in these areas, constant focus on the issues of assertiveness and territorial disputes, particularly over the last 3 years, means that progress and development in the relationship often receives little attention. The South China Sea is a complex issue, however security-related dialogue between China and ASEAN member states will be shown to have mitigated this problem to a certain extent. The paper will show that the challenges to Beijing’s policy lies with countries from outside the sub-region and their return, or growing role in Southeast Asian affairs, and that in fact during the period when China has been labeled more ‘assertive’ its relationship with ASEAN has deepened and developed as planned. In its use of materials the paper will employ the qualitative research method of document analysis.