Lantmännen is a Swedish agricultural cooperative in agriculture, machinery, bioenergy and food. With over 10,000 employees and 5 divisions, Lantmännen is the Nordic region’s largest ethanol manufacturer. In the Energy division business area are Agroetanol, which produces sustainable ethanol that is used for, among other things, biofuels. To produce ethanol, grains such as wheat, barley, triticale, corn and rye are mixed. The grain is purchased through forward contracts for up to a year before it is used in production. Depending on which mixture of grain is used, the amount of ethanol that is produced differs. Therefore, is it of great importance which mixture is used. Agroetanol currently use mixtures based on what is available in the procured contracts and production stocks, without regard to ethanol yields. The purpose of the master thesis is to provide a basis for Lantmännen Agroetanol that can help the company choose which mixture of raw grain is most suitable in relation to the ethanol yield. The main goal of the thesis is to create a model for calculating the expected ethanol yield in the production of specific mixtures, as well as an optimization model to optimize which mixtures are to be used from available stocks at each quarter. To achieve the goal, a statistical model was created based on data from Agroetanol. The model was created using a regression analysis in several steps. The steps began with a literature search on similar studies to determine what form the predictable model would take. At the same time as the literature search was ongoing, several interviews were conducted with staff from Agroetanol. The interviews aimed to collect historical data regarding ethanol production at the plant, as well as a survey of how the production was carried out and how the plant functioned. Based on the historical data collected, a statistical model could be produced. The model can be used to estimate the expected ethanol yield of different combinations of raw grains. The standard error of the regression was 1.3898 percentage points. The model can be used to determine the amount of each grain to be procured, to have a high ethanol yield. Based on the regression model, a mathematical mixing model for grains (BMFS) was created with the goal to plan how the available grain should be distributed in different mixtures. BMFS was based on the information about Agroetanol’s processes and production facility obtained through interviews. The model’s solution consists of which grains are to be included in each mixture for each week, how much of each grain is to be included in the mixture, from which contract the grain is to be procured and in which silo at Agroetanol it is to be stored before it is used in production. BMFS was optimized in AMPL as an optimization model, with the BARON solver. The solution is time consuming and therefore EpsR is used to make the solution easier. The EpsR value means that Baron stops looking for better solutions if the objective functioan value does not become better than the EpsR value. With the help of the regression model and BMFS, Agroetanol can improve its long-term production planning. With the regression model, they can already, when buying grain, plan according to which mixtures give the highest ethanol content. The solution from BMFS means that Agroetanol can plan the ethanol production for the entire quarter before the quarter begins. / Lantmännen är ett svenskt lantbrukskooperativ inom lantbruk, maskin, bioenergi och livsmedel. Med över 10 000 anställda och 5 divisioner är Lantmännen Nordens största etanolproducent. I divisionen Energi finns affärsområdet Agroetanol där tillverkningen av hållbar etanol som används till bland annat biodrivmedel. För att tillverka etanol används spannmål såsom vete, korn, rågvete, majs och råg. Spannmålen inhandlas genom forwardkontrakt i upp till ett år innan de används i produktionen. Beroende på vilken blandning spannmål som används skiljer sig etanolhalten åt och därav är det av stor betydelse vilken blandning som används. I dagsläget väljer Agroetanol sina blandningar utefter vad som finns i tillgängligt i de upphandlade kontrakten och produktionslagren utan hänsyn till etanolutbytet. Syftet med examens-arbetet är att bidra med ett underlag för Lantmännen Agroetanol som kan hjälpa företaget att välja vilken blandning av spannmålsråvaror som är mest lämplig i förhållande till etanolutbytet. Examensarbetets huvudmål blev därmed att skapa en statistisk modell för att beräkna förväntad etanolutbyte, samt en matematisk blandningsmodell för att optimera vilka blandningar som ska användas utifrån de tillgängliga spannmålen vid varje kvartal. För att uppnå målet skapades en statistisk modell baserad på data från Agroetanol. Modellen skapades med hjälp av en regressionsanalys i flera steg. Stegen började med en litteratursökning kring liknande studier för att avgöra vilken form prediktormodellen skulle ha. Samtidigt som litteratursökningen pågick genomfördes flera intervjuer med personal från Agroetanol. Intervjuerna syftade till att samla in historisk data angående etanolproduktionen på anläggningen, samt en kartläggning över hur produktionen genomfördes och hur anläggningen fungerade. Baserat på den historiska data som samlades in kunde en regressionsmodell framställas. Modellen kan användas för att uppskatta förväntat etanolutbyte vid olika fördelningar av spannmålen i blandningarna. Regressionens standardavvikelse hamnade på 1,3898 procentenheter. Modellen kan användas för att avgöra vilken mängd av varje spannmål som ska införskaffas för att ge ett högt etanolutbyte. Utifrån regressionsmodellen skapades en matematisk blandningsmodell för spannmål (BMFS), vars mål är att planera hur det tillgängliga spannmålet ska fördelas i olika blandningar. BMFS baserades på information kring Agroetanols processer och produktionsanläggning som införskaffats genom intervjuer. Modellens lösning består av vilka spannmål som ska ingå i varje blandning för varje vecka, hur stor del av varje spannmål ska ingå i blandningen, från vilket kontrakt ska spannmålet införskaffas och i vilken silo hos Agroetanol det ska lagras innan det används i produktionen. BMFS optimerades i AMPL som en optimeringsmodell, med lösaren BARON. Lösningen är tidskrävande och därav används EpsR för att göra lösningen lättare. EpsR-värdet innebär att Baron slutar leta bättre lösningar ifall målfunktionsvärdet inte blir bättre än EpsR-värdet. Med hjälp av regressionsmodellen och BMFS kan Agroetanol planera sin produktion mer långsiktigt. Med hjälp av regressionsmodellen kan de redan vid inköp av spannmål planera utefter vilka blandningar som ger högst etanolhalt. BMFS lösning bidrar till att Agroetanol kan planera produktionen av etanol för ett helt kvartal, innan kvartalet påbörjas. / <p>Examensarbetet är utfört vid Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap (ITN) vid Tekniska fakulteten, Linköpings universitet</p>

The aim of this thesis is to briefly introduce the reader to the problem of development of the electricity consumption, to show the possibilities of its prediction, and provide an example of electricity consumption analysis, which may serve as a basis for long-term forecast. The first part of this work is devoted to brief overview of the development of consumption of electrical energy in the Czech Republic and factors associated with that development. The main events of Czech electrification history are outlined, as well as factors influencing the magnitude of the demand for electricity in the recent times. There are described the possibilities of the influence of foreign exchange and price of the electricity, net losses, GDP, the consumption of gas, the number of inhabitants, or the structure of the economy. This work further describes the development of the consumption of electric energy abroad and comparison of the electricity consumption in the Czech Republic to its neighboring countries, in which there are apparently influence by variety of factors that affect the consumption development trend. For more complex overview, the electricity consumption of most of European states is being noted, and near the end of the chapter the development in poorest countries and in quickly growing economies is shown. The fourth chapter mentions methods for short and middle-term prediction of consumption of electricity. There also is more consistent description of possibilities useful for long-term prediction, for which the use of the results of statistics analysis is possible. The description of observed data that are used to find the dependences of different factors is made in the following part. Further the approach of the statistics analysis used in this thesis is shown, and the key terms are explained. The dates concerning the consumption of Czech Republic are analyzed, followed by the states with similar trend of the consumption and finally other European states. Sixth chapter examines the possible uses of the outcomes of statistical analyses for long-term prediction of electricity consumption. The conclusion sums up the knowledge acquired during the research concerning problem of electricity consumption and my own analysis of data.

This term project deals with the classification of 1D gel electrophoresis samples. It describes the theoretical information about gel electrophoresis, various types of errors, processing of the image and its classification using the cluster analysis. One of the main goals is creation of images with the highest quality as possible. A realization of pre-processing and detection of the sample borders is made in the MATLAB environment. And finally, classification of samples is done with subsequent statistical analysis.

This thesis is focused on the use of time series and other statistical methods as a tool for examining the financial performance and financial position of the selected company. The aim is to assess the current situation of the company and on the basis of these results, draw conclusions and propose steps to improve the situation. Projections for future years will be based on knowledge of historical data.

The subject of this thesis is to verify effect of aluminium powder in ground refractory coatin, which is intended for casting od steel castings to organic bonded moulds. The pre-sence of aluminium powder in ground coating was expertised on term of coating in itself - that means immunity to heat shock, penetration etc., and in term of influence on formation of surface defects etc. Outputs of this thesis are: setting of optimum amount of aluminium powder in ground coating and statistically verified analysis of effects of modified coating in term of creation of defects

The development in structural design and construction of high-speed craft has been extensive during the last decades. Environmental and economical issues have increased the need to develop more optimized structures, using new material concepts, to reduce weight and increase performance efficiency. However, both lack of, and limitations in design methodology, makes this a difficult task. In this thesis a methodological framework which enables detailed studies of the slamming loads and associated responses for high-speed planing craft in irregular waves is established. The slamming loads can either be formulated based on numerical simulations, or on experimental measurements and pressure distribution reconstruction. Structure responses are derived in the time-domain using finite element analysis. Statistical methods are used to determine design loads and lifetime extreme responses. The framework is applied to perform phenomenological studies of the slamming loading conditions for high-speed craft, and used to highlight and quantify the limitations in the prevailing semi-empirical method for design load determination with respect to slamming. A number of clarifications regarding the original derivation and the applicability of the prevailing semi-empirical method are presented. Finally, several potential improvements to the method are presented and the associated implications discussed. The long-term goal of the research project is to establish a method for direct calculation of loads and response for high-speed planing craft, which can enable design of truly efficient craft structures. The methodology and the results presented in this thesis are concluded to be important stepping-stones towards this goal. / <p>In page VII, Paper B is wrong title. The correct title is "Experiental Evaluation of Slamming Pressure Models Used in Structural Design of High-Speed Craft". QC 20130228</p>

Improving intersection safety and efficiency are the primary goals of alternative intersection designs. These designs seek to improve on traditional traffic control methods, often by reducing intersection conflict points, reducing or eliminating time-wasting signal phases, or both. However, public opposition to these new designs can be a large barrier to implementation of alternative intersections despite their known safety and efficiency benefits.<br><br>This study evaluated current public perception and factors influencing that perception for four alternative intersection designs - the roundabout, the restricted crossing U-turn (also known as J-turn and reduced conflict intersection), the displaced left turn (also known as the continuous flow intersection), and the diverging diamond interchange (also known as the double crossover diamond interchange). <br><br>To achieve this objective, a survey instrument was designed and distributed to a target sample of 1,000 adults residing in the State of Indiana. The survey solicited participant awareness of these designs, acceptance of a potential implementation of the design in their community, and driver confidence using the design along with participant socio-demographic data. Descriptive and inferential statistical analysis was then conducted. <br><br>The survey results indicate that residents of Indiana are not aware of designs not currently widely implemented in the state, that opposition to these rarer designs is prominent, and that drivers were generally less confident in their ability to safely navigate these unfamiliar designs. Younger respondents, male respondents, more highly educated respondents, respondents who travel more often or for farther distances, and respondents who rate their own driving ability highly are more likely to be aware, accepting, and confident using alternative designs. <br><br>The results of this study will inform future outreach efforts pertaining to alternative intersections by improving transportation agency understanding of public opinions and primary concerns regarding these designs and provide potential paths for improving public perception. <br>

The importance of processes is growing. Processes are integrated into many areas of human work, where they help to organize all activities. This thesis aims on statistical approach to process behavior analysis. There are mentioned the basic process management issues in the beginning of this thesis. The main focus is on the techniques used during process analysis. There are mentioned approaches that are used to easily and effectively assess process behavior using process behavior charts and how to deduce proper steps from the analysis results to improve the process. The last part of this thesis is dedicated to practical analysis of real process behavior data using implemented solution. The results show common usability of statistical methods and approaches to process analysis.

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