The work presented in this dissertation can be grouped around three major themes. The first theme relates to risk, the second theme relates to asset pricing, whereas the third theme relates to serial correlation of asset returns. The three chapters of this dissertation investigate these themes Chapter Two analyses the behavior over time of market risk, aggregate idiosyncratic risk and correlations in portfolio of Taiwan listing stocks and studied pattern of aggregate correlation between the 3 most important Taiwan stock index and Taiwan value-weighted index. We find (1) Idiosyncratic risk is trended upwards; (2) The conditional stock returns correlation process is asymmetric. The implication of our finding is (1) It takes more stocks to achieve a given level of diversification; (2) Diversification strategies perform poorly in bear markets. Chapter Three investigates the role of the asset co-skewness and conditioning information in asset pricing. First, I estimate long-run predictive regressions of asset returns to test whether aggregate idiosyncratic risk is a price factor of industrial returns. Then I use data on Taiwan 19 industry portfolios to fit various assets pricing models. I find (1) the cross-sectional ctional correlation between 2 i £] (the gamma coefficient from the 3M-CAPM equation) and 3 i ϕ (the interaction coefficient from the CCAPM equation) is positive and fairly large. (2) The firm-level volatility is a good proxy for cay as conditioning information variable. (3) The gamma coefficient can pick up the extent of beta co-vary with the market wide excess-return over the business cycle. (4)among 19 industrial returns, the 2 industrial returns can be explained by 3M-CAPM; the 7 industrial returns can be explained by CCAPM; the 5 industrial returns can be explained by 3M-CAPM+CCAPM, Others can¡¦t be explained by either of three models. Chapter Four examines the impact of positive feedback trading behavior of the investors on the short-term dynamics of return for four Taiwan index futures contracts by utilizing the framework of the model developed by Sentana & Wadhwani(1992). Use of the Asymmetric Nonlinear Smooth Transition GARCH Model demonstrates that positive feedback trading of investors is the main determinant of short-term dynamics of return for Taiwan index futures contracts. Moreover, it shows that positive trading is more intense during market declines than it is during market advances due to extensive use of spot-loss trading for investors. Finally it is shown that the sophisticated professional investors intend to take positive feedback trades wave so that they lead to increase positive feedback trading in Taiwan index futures since the government opened the enterprises for managed futures.

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

本文研究目的是在探討跨國的投資者在面對國際投資日益開放的同時，是否充分的利用國際上的資產市場以分散投資者所面對的風險。本文參考Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara（2006），建立一種衡量國際間風險分散程度的風險分散指數，並以台灣為本國基準，取台灣前三大貿易夥伴：美國、日本、中國為外國基準，以分析此四國的國際風險分散指數，衡量的標的為各國資產市場中的主要股票交易市場指數報酬率，以分析各國風險分散的情形。此外我們亦嘗試解釋國際間風險分散的情形並解釋我們所計算出的結果，並進行一些模型參數的演算，以分析在面對其他總體變化時將會遇到的情形。經由本文的實證研究發現，對於台灣而言，在國際間的風險分散程度是偏高的，亦即，面對此四國的資產市場，台灣投資者的投資配置符合風險分散的趨勢，當匯率波動愈小時，國際風險分散程度亦將愈高，大致上與Brandt et al.(2006)之以美國為本國基準所得之國際風險分散程度結果相似。 / This thesis tries to discuss if risks are shared internationally by the international asset markets. This study refers to the Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara (2006) which built an international risk sharing index to measure the degree of international risk sharing. We set up a international risk sharing indices between Taiwan and its important trading partners, US, Japan and China by the asset returns composed by the main stock indices in each country. Furthermore, we try to explain the empirical results and to show how the degree of international risk sharing will different with the changes of the macro-variables. Our empirical analyses find that the degree of the international risk sharing for Taiwan using asset-based method is better than we think. In addition, the empirical results of this thesis are similar to Brandt et al. (2006) that if the volatility of exchange rates declines, the degree of the international risk sharing will be better.

Submitted by Laura Simonsen Leal (arula@fgvmail.br) on 2016-06-22T12:59:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 laura_tese14(final).pdf: 1036208 bytes, checksum: eac8007047195b00593f30884e72a3e2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2016-06-22T13:18:16Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 laura_tese14(final).pdf: 1036208 bytes, checksum: eac8007047195b00593f30884e72a3e2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-06-29T13:38:50Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 laura_tese14(final).pdf: 1036208 bytes, checksum: eac8007047195b00593f30884e72a3e2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-29T13:39:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 laura_tese14(final).pdf: 1036208 bytes, checksum: eac8007047195b00593f30884e72a3e2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-21 / The main purpose of this paper is to propose a methodology to obtain a hedge fund tail risk measure. Our measure builds on the methodologies proposed by Almeida and Garcia (2015) and Almeida, Ardison, Garcia, and Vicente (2016), which rely in solving dual minimization problems of Cressie Read discrepancy functions in spaces of probability measures. Due to the recently documented robustness of the Hellinger estimator (Kitamura et al., 2013), we adopt within the Cressie Read family, this specific discrepancy as loss function. From this choice, we derive a minimum Hellinger risk-neutral measure that correctly prices an observed panel of hedge fund returns. The estimated risk-neutral measure is used to construct our tail risk measure by pricing synthetic out-of-the-money put options on hedge fund returns of ten specific categories. We provide a detailed description of our methodology, extract the aggregate Tail risk hedge fund factor for Brazilian funds, and as a by product, a set of individual Tail risk factors for each specific hedge fund category.

Given the wide range of macroeconomic, financial and econometric frameworks commonly used to accommodate uncomfortable empirical evidence associated with the Forex market, this article aims to model and predict the monthly variation in American Dollar-Brazilian Real exchange rate, from January 2000 to December 2009, based on asset pricing theory. Wang (2008) and Engel and West (2005) are closer to ours, in terms of fundamentals of finance, while methodologically, we are close to Chong, Chung and Ahmad (2002) and da Costa et al. (2010). Our work is relevant to the empirical literature, since the prediction results are better than the random walk approach ones. The prediction error is about 5% and 14% for the exchange rate variation and in level, respectively. In 57.5% of the changes, our model predicts the correct change direction. The main contribution based on this framework, already used to understand the Forward Premium Puzzle for advancedeconomies, consists in the derivation and the implications of a system of linear relationships characterized by a Bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean (GARCH-M), useful empirically, once we have extracted a time series for a Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) able to price the covered and the uncovered trading with U.S. Government bonds. The results suggest to the theoretical literature that, at least for monthly frequency, one should not omit the temporal variation of conditional moments of the second order. The hypothesis about the lognormal distribution of discounted returns and a parsimonious specification for conditional Heteroskedastic models can influence the predictive power of SDF, as well as the effects of the inclusion of risk premium. / Diante da vasta gama de arcabouÃos macroeconÃmicos, economÃtricos e financeiros que visam acomodar evidÃncias empÃricas desconfortÃveis associadas ao mercado cambial, este artigo visa modelar e prever a variaÃÃo mensal entre as moedas real brasileiro e dÃlar americano, de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2009, baseado na teoria de apreÃamento de ativos. Este estudo agrega-se à literatura empÃrica, ao obter resultados preditivos superiores a um modelo de passeio aleatÃrio, com erros de previsÃo da ordem de grandeza de 5% e 14% para depreciaÃÃo e para o cÃmbio em nÃvel, respectivamente, e um acerto em 57,5% das vezes com relaÃÃo à direÃÃo da variaÃÃo cambial. Alinhado em fundamentos a Wang (2008) e Engel e West (2005) e metodologicamente a Chong, Chung e Ahmad (2002) e da Costa et al. (2010), a principal contribuiÃÃo no uso deste arcabouÃo, jà utilizado no entendimento do Forward Premium Puzzle para economias avanÃadas, consiste na derivaÃÃo e nas implicaÃÃes de um sistema de relaÃÃes lineares caracterizado por um Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in- Mean (GARCH-M) bivariado, o qual pode ser testÃvel, a partir da extraÃÃo via componentes principais da sÃrie temporal para um Fator EstocÃstico de Desconto capaz de apreÃar operaÃÃes coberta e descoberta de aquisiÃÃo de tÃtulos do governo americano. Os resultados sugerem, ainda, à literatura teÃrica que, ao menos para frequÃncia mensal, nÃo se deve desprezar a variaÃÃo temporal dos momentos condicionais de segunda ordem. A hipÃtese sobre a distribuiÃÃo lognormal dos retornos descontados e uma especificaÃÃo parcimoniosa para modelos de heterocedasticidade condicional podem prejudicar a capacidade preditiva associada do Fator EstocÃstico de Desconto, assim como os efeitos da incorporaÃÃo do prÃmio de risco.

Submitted by Fernando Luiz Cordeiro (fernandolpcordeiro@gmail.com) on 2018-06-22T20:12:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 SDFDecomposition_finalv.pdf: 845158 bytes, checksum: 5ceb09364caa557c2198d20e41ee5522 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-06-29T19:55:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 SDFDecomposition_finalv.pdf: 845158 bytes, checksum: 5ceb09364caa557c2198d20e41ee5522 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-02T18:21:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SDFDecomposition_finalv.pdf: 845158 bytes, checksum: 5ceb09364caa557c2198d20e41ee5522 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018 / In this work, we use the framework developed by Christensen (2017) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) to study the long-term interest rates in the US and Brazil. In our first set of results, we assess Christensen (2017) estimator using Monte Carlo simulations in order to evaluate the estimator performance in the rare disasters and habit formation asset pricing models. Generally, the estimation quality is not uniform and, in some cases, requires a large sample size to attain reasonable results. Next, we apply the nonparametric estimation to US and Brazilian data and estimate how the yield of a long-term zero-coupon bond responds to the initial state of the economy. Using a flexible specification for the state process leads to an interesting non-linear response of the yield to changes in the initial state. We find that the Brazilian long-term interest rate is about 5.3% per year.

Submitted by Daniella Santos (daniella.santos@fgv.br) on 2010-03-11T13:25:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Fabio_Araujo_Final.pdf: 715897 bytes, checksum: 17afb0d85c3fff397df747b1a0d56bf9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Andrea Virginio Machado(andrea.machado@fgv.br) on 2010-03-12T13:27:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Fabio_Araujo_Final.pdf: 715897 bytes, checksum: 17afb0d85c3fff397df747b1a0d56bf9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-03-15T12:06:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Fabio_Araujo_Final.pdf: 715897 bytes, checksum: 17afb0d85c3fff397df747b1a0d56bf9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-08-10 / This work proposes alternative ways to consistently estimate an abstract measure, crucial to the study of intertemporal decisions, which is at the core of most macroeconomics and financial studies: the Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF). Using the Pricing Equation in a panel-data framework, is constructed a novel consistent estimator of the SDF which relies on the fact that its logarithm is pervasive to all asset returns of the economy. The resulting estimator is very simple to compute, does not dependent on strong economic assumptions, is suitable for testing different preference specifications or investigating intertemporal substitution puzzles, and can be used as basis to construct an estimator for the risk-free rate. Alternative identification strategies are applied and a parallel between it and identifications strategies based on other frameworks is drawn. Adding structure to the initial setup, two environments were the asymptotic distribution can be derived are presented. Finally, methodologies proposed are applied US and Brazilian data. Preference specifications usually found in the macro literature, as well as a class of state dependent preferences, are tested. The results for the US economy are particularly interesting, by performing formal tests, we cannot reject standard preference specifications used in the literature and estimates of the relative risk-aversion coefficient are between 1 and 2, and statistically indistinguishable from the unity. Moreover, for the class of state dependent preferences and using US quarterly data from 1972:1 and 2001:4, we estimate a highly dynamic path for the relative risk-aversion (rra) coefficient, confined to the interval [1.15, 2.05], and also reject the hypothesis of a constant level. / Este trabalho propõe maneiras alternativas para a estimação consistente de uma medida abstrata, crucial para o estudo de decisões intertemporais, o qual é central a grande parte dos estudos em macroeconomia e finanças: o Fator Estocástico de Descontos (SDF, sigla em Inglês). Pelo emprego da Equação de Apreçamento constrói-se um inédito estimador consistente do SDF que depende do fato de que seu logaritmo é comum a todos os ativos de uma economia. O estimador resultante é muito simples de se calcular, não depende de fortes hipóteses econômicas, é adequado ao teste de diversas especificações de preferência e para a investigação de paradoxos de substituição intertemporal, e pode ser usado como base para a construção de um estimador para a taxa livre de risco. Alternativas para a estratégia de identificação são aplicadas e um paralelo entre elas e estratégias de outras metodologias é traçado. Adicionando estrutura ao ambiente inicial, são apresentadas duas situações onde a distribuição assintótica pode ser derivada. Finalmente, as metodologias propostas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados dos EUA e do Brasil. Especificações de preferência usualmente empregadas na literatura, bem como uma classe de preferências dependentes do estado, são testadas. Os resultados são particularmente interessantes para a economia americana. A aplicação de teste formais não rejeita especificações de preferências comuns na literatura e estimativas para o coeficiente relativo de aversão ao risco se encontram entre 1 e 2, e são estatisticamente indistinguíveis de 1. Adicionalmente, para a classe de preferência s dependentes do estado, trajetórias altamente dinâmicas são estimadas para a tal coeficiente, as trajetórias são confinadas ao intervalo [1,15, 2,05] e se rejeita a hipótese de uma trajetória constante.

A dissertação aborda e compara as características dos índices de Sharpe (SR) e suas variantes, SRc e SRd, Sharpe generalizado (GSR ) e potencial de investimento (IP), sendo os índices GSR e IP associados a alguma função de utilidade. Pelo fato de o GSR e o IP serem idênticos, testes empíricos foram realizados entre SRc e o GSR. Ambos foram avaliados teoricamente sob dois aspectos, o que definimos de análise retrospectiva, i.e., análise de séries de log-retornos mensais observados, e a análise prospectiva, i.e., séries a ocorrer. No âmbito prospectivo, ex ante facto, o SRc (índice de Sharpe com variável de estado normal) e o SRd (índice de Sharpe com variável de estado lognormal), por estarem associados à função de utilidade quadrática, apresentam distorções como o ponto bliss e o agente econômico bomba de dinheiro. O mesmo ocorre no âmbito retrospectivo, ex post facto, com o GSR (potencial de desempenho de ativos de risco para indivíduos com função de utilidade HARA) quando o coeficiente de aversão ao risco é igual a um negativo, gama=-1. No entanto, o GSR pode ser associado a funções de utilidade diferentes da quadrática evitando seus efeitos indesejáveis. Sob a suposição de movimento browniano geométrico (MBG) e da utilidade HARA para o preço mensal ajustado de ações brasileiras e americanas e para pontos mensais de índices brasileiros e americanos, entre janeiro de 2000 e março de 2008, obtivemos os seguintes resultados: (1) o índice GSR para utilidade quadrática apresentou elevada correlação com o SRc; (2) a menor correlação de GSR com SRc ocorreu para utilidade logarítmica; (3) para a utilidade exponencial, o GSR apresenta elevado grau de correlação com o SRc. Os resultados mostraram que o GSR com utilidade exponencial é o índice que menos se aproxima do comportamento do GSR com utilidade quadrática. Sabendo-se das distorções da utilidade quadrática, a adoção do GSR com gama=1 parece mais adequado para a classificação de ativos de risco. / This master dissertation studies and compares the characteristics of Sharpe ratio and its variants, SRc and SRd, generalized Sharpe ratio (GSR) and investment potential (IP), both GSR and IP associated to any utility function. By the fact that GSR and IP are identical indexes, empiric tests were conducted between SRc and GSR. The indexes were evaluated theoretically under two different aspects: retrospective analysis, i.e., analyze the observed monthly log-returns, and prospective analysis, i.e., series to occur. Under prospective view, ex ante facto, SRc (Sharpe ratio with normal state variable) and SRd (Sharpe ratio with lognormal state variable), for being associated to the quadratic utility function, show the inherent problems to utility functions such as the bliss point and the pump money economic agent. The same happens in a retrospective view, ex post facto, with the GSR (performance potential with HARA utility function family) when the risk aversion coefficient equals minus one, gama=-1. Therefore, the GSR can be associated to different utility functions avoiding the undesirable effects. Under the GBM (geometric Brownian motion) condition and HARA utility function for the Brazilian and American adjusted monthly stock prices and indexes monthly points during January 2000 and March 2008, we reached the following: (1) results indicate that GSR for quadratic utility has high correlation level with SRc; (2) while the logarithmic utility showed lowest correlation level between GSR and SRc; (3) exponential utilities showed a high level of correlation between GSR and SRc. The results showed that GSR with exponential utility kept the biggest behavior difference for the GSR with quadratic utility. Based on the knowing problems of the quadratic utility, GSR with gama=1 seems to be a better index choice for risk assets classification.

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és triple. En primer lloc, contribuïm a aprofundir l'anàlisi de la capacitat del model dels tres factors de Fama i French (1993) per valorar els actius financers a Europa. En segon lloc, estudiem la relació entre els factors de Fama i French (FF) i el risc sistemàtic, i, per tant, en quina mesura _es coherent amb la interpretació del model intertemporal de valoració d'actius, que va més enllà de l'efecte mida i de l'efecte valor comptable-valor de mercat. I, en tercer lloc, tenim com a objectiu mesurar la integració dels mercats d'accions europeus, emmarcada en el procés continu d'alineació institucional i econòmica a Europa. En la literatura empírica de la valoració d'actius, el model dels tres factors ha esdevingut un dels més populars per ajustar segons el risc. No obstant això, fins ara, la majoria de treballs empírics han fet referència a un nombre reduït de mercats, especialment als Estats Units. Perquè el model sigui acceptat com a alternativa vàlida al model de fixació de preus d'actius de capital (CAPM), cal més suport empíric. En aquest treball, fem servir una nova mostra amb una construcció nova dels factors de FF que s'aplica en un conjunt extensiu de països, indústries i regions europees. Els resultats que n'hem obtingut impliquen que el model dels tres factors domina clarament el CAPM en cadascuna de les submostres; tot això a banda que els tests formals indiquen que cap dels models és totalment satisfactori per a la valoració d'actius. A més, documentem que l'ampliació del model de FF amb el factor moment noms millora marginalment la capacitat explicativa quan s'aplica a les rendibilitats de les accions europees.El gran èxit del model dels tres factors de Fama i French també ha generat un debat intens sobre la racionalitat econòmica que hi ha al darrere. Nosaltres hem aprofundit aquesta qüestió estudiant si la mida i la ràtio valor comptable-valor de mercat estan relacionades amb oportunitats futures d'inversió. Ho hem estudiat des de dues perspectives diferents. D'una banda, suposem que els canvis en el conjunt d'oportunitats d'inversió es poden representar mitjançant canvis en la ràtio de creixement macroeconòmic. D'altra banda, vinculem els factors de FF construïts a futures ràtios de creixement del PIB a Europa, i trobem que només la mida sembla que conté alguna informació sobre el creixement macroeconòmic futur. Però, fins i tot aquest efecte de la mida no es manté en les nostres diferents submostres.En un segon pas, relacionem la mida i la ràtio valor comptable-valor de mercat amb canvis en els diferencials dels tipus d'interès per crèdit i per termini. Aquests diferencials de rendiment es reconeixen per la capacitat de marcar les oportunitats d'inversió. Malgrat tot, els nostres resultats indiquen que ni els canvis en el diferencial de crèdit a Europa ni els canvis en el diferencial de termini poden actuar com a punts de vista alternatius subjacents als factors de mida o de valor comptable-valor de mercat. De fet, els resultats empírics que obtenim indiquen que, si augmentem el model dels tres factors amb els canvis en els diferencials de crèdit i de termini, fem incrementar la capacitat de valorar carteres d'accions en tots els àmbits: país, indústria i regió. Per tant, sembla que les variables s'haurien de considerar més com a complementàries que com a substitutives, a diferència dels resultats obtinguts per als Estats Units (vegeu Petkova, 2006; Hahn i Lee, 2006).Finalment, per estudiar el grau d'integració dels mercats d'accions europeus, seguim dues vies relacionades. Primer, mostrem que una versió paneuropea del model dels tres factors és capaç d'explicar una porció considerable de la rendibilitat de les carteres domèstiques. Aquest resultat indica que el model conté informació rellevant per valorar les accions domèstiques. Alhora, el resultat pot implicar que els mercats europeus estan integrats (vegeu Bekaert i Harvey, 1995; Roll i Ross, 1980). En un segon pas, més genèric, fem servir l'esquema del Factor de descompte estocàstic (SDF) per estimar i comparar els nuclis de valoració d'actius domèstics en els diferents mercats europeus. Els resultats indiquen que la quantitat d'informació compartida per aquests nuclis de valoració augmenta significativament en el temps, especialment després de l'arribada de l'euro. Aquest resultat pot servir com a indicador addicional de l'increment del nivell d'integració dels mercats d'accions europeus. / El objetivo de esta tesis es triple. Por una parte, contribuimos a profundizar en el análisis de la capacidad del modelo de 3 Factores de Fama y French (1993) para valorar activos financieros en Europa. En segundo lugar, estudiamos la relación entre los factores de Fama y French y el riesgo sistemático. Y por tanto, en qué medida el modelo 3 Factores es consistente con una interpretación de modelo intertemporal de valoración de activos; que va más allá del efecto tamaño y el efecto valor contable - valor de mercado. En tercer lugar, nuestro objetivo es medir la integración de los mercados de acciones europeos, enmarcada en el continuado proceso de alineamiento institucional y económico en Europa. En la literatura empírica de valoración de activos el modelo de 3 Factores se ha convertido en uno de los más populares para ajustar por riesgo. Sin embargo, hasta la fecha, la mayoría de los trabajos empíricos se han aplicado a un número reducido de mercados, especialmente en los Estados Unidos. Para que el modelo sea aceptado como una alternativa válida al CAPM, se requiere un mayor soporte empírico. En este trabajo utilizamos una nueva muestra, con una nueva construcción de los factores de FF, que se aplica a un extensivo conjunto de países, industrias y regiones europeas. Nuestros resultados implican que en cada una de nuestras sub-muestras, el modelo de 3 Factores claramente domina el CAPM; al margen de que los test formales indiquen que ninguno de los modelos es totalmente satisfactorio para la valoración de activos. También documentamos que la ampliación del modelo de 3 Factores con el factor momento sólo mejora marginalmente la capacidad explicativa cuando se aplica a las rentabilidades de las acciones europeas.El enorme éxito del modelo de 3 Factores de Fama y French ha abierto también un intenso debate sobre la racionalidad económica que existe detrás de los mismos. Nosotros ahondamos en esta discusión estudiando si el tamaño y la ratio valor contable-valor de mercado están relacionados con oportunidades de inversión futuras. Lo estudiamos mediante dos aproximaciones distintas, primero suponemos que los cambios en el conjunto de las oportunidades de inversión pueden representarse mediante cambios en la ratio de crecimiento macroeconómico. Por otra parte, vinculamos los factores de FF construidos a futuras ratios de crecimiento de PIB en Europa, y encontramos que sólo el tamaño parece contener alguna información sobre el crecimiento macroeconómico futuro. Pero, incluso este efecto tamaño, no se mantiene para en nuestras distintas sub-muestras. En un segundo paso, relacionamos el tamaño y la ratio valor contable - valor de mercado con cambios en los diferenciales de los tipos de interés por crédito y plazo. Estos diferenciales de rendimiento están reconocidos por su capacidad para marcar las oportunidades de inversión. Sin embargo, nuestros resultados indican que ni los cambios en el diferencial de crédito en Europa, ni los cambios en el diferencial de plazo, pueden actuar como aproximaciones alternativas subyacentes al los factores de tamaño o valor contable - valor de mercado. De hecho, los resultados empíricos que obtenemos indican que si aumentamos el modelo de 3 Factores con los cambios en los diferenciales de crédito y plazo, incrementa la capacidad de valorar carteras de acciones a todos los niveles: país, industria y región. Por tanto, parecería que las variables deberían de ser consideradas más como complementarias que como substitutivas, a diferencia de los resultados obtenidos para los Estados Unidos (vid Petkova, 2006; Hahn y Lee, 2006).Finalmente, para estudiar el grado de integración de los mercados de acciones europeos seguimos dos vías relacionadas. Primero mostramos que una versión paneuropea del modelo de 3 Factores es capaz de explicar una porción considerable de la rentabilidad de las carteras domesticas. Este resultado indica que el modelo contiene información relevante para valorar acciones domésticas. Al mismo tiempo, el resultado puede implica que los mercados europeos están integrados (vid. Bekaert y Harvey, 1995; Roll y Ross, 1980). En un segundo paso, más genérico, utilizamos el esquema de Factor de Descuento Estocástico (SDF) para estimar y comparar los núcleos de valoración de activos domésticos en los diferentes mercados europeos. Nuestros resultados indican que la cantidad de información compartida por esos núcleos de valoración aumenta significativamente en el tiempo, especialmente después de la llegada del euro. Este resultado puede servir como un indicador adicional del incremento del nivel de integración de los mercados europeos de acciones. / The main purpose of this dissertation is threefold. For one, we aim to shed further light on the general pricing ability of the Fama and French (1993) (FF) three-factor model (3FM) in Europe. For two, we mean to assess whether the FF factors are related to systematic risk and, thus, whether the 3FM is consistent with an intertemporal asset pricing explanation behind the size and book-to-market effects. For three, we endeavor to measure the extent to which European equity markets are integrated. This is motivated by the continuous institutional and economic alignment process in Europe.The 3FM has become one of the most popular models of risk adjustment in the empirical asset pricing literature. However, to date most empirical work has been done for a few selected markets, especially the US. Hence, the 3FM demands more time and further empirical support before it may be accepted as a credible theory-based model to replace the CAPM. We use a fresh holdout sample with newly constructed FF factors for an extensive set of European countries, industries, and regions. Our findings imply that in each of our sub-samples, the 3FM clearly dominates the CAPM, even if formal test statistics imply that neither model is free of mispricing. We also document that augmenting the 3FM by a momentum factor may only marginally help to explain European equity return behavior.The enormous success of the 3FM has also triggered an extensive debate about the economic rationale of the FF factors. We purse this discussion by assessing via two different approaches whether size and book-to-market may be related to time varying investment opportunities. We first assume that changes in the investment opportunity set are summarized by changes in future macroeconomic growth rates. Nevertheless, if we link our newly constructed FF factors to future GDP growth rates in the Eurozone, then we find that only size appears to contain some information on future macroeconomic growth. Yet, not even this finding for the size effect is, admittedly, very persistent across our sub-samples.In a second step, we relate size and book-to-market to changes in European default and term spreads. These yield spreads are generally acknowledged for their ability to track investment opportunities. Our results suggest, however, that neither changes in the European default spread nor changes in the European term spread may proxy for the risk underlying our size and book-to-market factors. In fact, our empirical findings imply that augmenting the 3FM by changes in these yield spreads may notably help to price European equity portfolios at country, industry, and regional level. Hence, it appears that the variables may be considered complements rather than substitutes. This is contrary to US findings (see Petkova, 2006, Hahn and Lee, 2006).Finally, we follow two related approaches to study the degree to which European stock markets are integrated. We first show that a pan-European version of the 3FM is able to explain a considerable proportion of domestic equity portfolio returns. For one, this entails that the model contains valuable information from pricing domestic equity. For two, it may imply that European stock markets are integrate (see Bekaert and Harvey, 1995, Roll and Ross, 1980). In a second and more generic step, we utilize a stochastic discount factor (SDF) framework to estimate and compare domestic pricing kernels across European markets. Our results convey that the amount of information shared by these kernels increases significantly over time, especially after the advent of the euro. This may serve as a further indicator of an increasing European stock market integration.

A dissertação aborda e compara as características dos índices de Sharpe (SR) e suas variantes, SRc e SRd, Sharpe generalizado (GSR ) e potencial de investimento (IP), sendo os índices GSR e IP associados a alguma função de utilidade. Pelo fato de o GSR e o IP serem idênticos, testes empíricos foram realizados entre SRc e o GSR. Ambos foram avaliados teoricamente sob dois aspectos, o que definimos de análise retrospectiva, i.e., análise de séries de log-retornos mensais observados, e a análise prospectiva, i.e., séries a ocorrer. No âmbito prospectivo, ex ante facto, o SRc (índice de Sharpe com variável de estado normal) e o SRd (índice de Sharpe com variável de estado lognormal), por estarem associados à função de utilidade quadrática, apresentam distorções como o ponto bliss e o agente econômico bomba de dinheiro. O mesmo ocorre no âmbito retrospectivo, ex post facto, com o GSR (potencial de desempenho de ativos de risco para indivíduos com função de utilidade HARA) quando o coeficiente de aversão ao risco é igual a um negativo, gama=-1. No entanto, o GSR pode ser associado a funções de utilidade diferentes da quadrática evitando seus efeitos indesejáveis. Sob a suposição de movimento browniano geométrico (MBG) e da utilidade HARA para o preço mensal ajustado de ações brasileiras e americanas e para pontos mensais de índices brasileiros e americanos, entre janeiro de 2000 e março de 2008, obtivemos os seguintes resultados: (1) o índice GSR para utilidade quadrática apresentou elevada correlação com o SRc; (2) a menor correlação de GSR com SRc ocorreu para utilidade logarítmica; (3) para a utilidade exponencial, o GSR apresenta elevado grau de correlação com o SRc. Os resultados mostraram que o GSR com utilidade exponencial é o índice que menos se aproxima do comportamento do GSR com utilidade quadrática. Sabendo-se das distorções da utilidade quadrática, a adoção do GSR com gama=1 parece mais adequado para a classificação de ativos de risco. / This master dissertation studies and compares the characteristics of Sharpe ratio and its variants, SRc and SRd, generalized Sharpe ratio (GSR) and investment potential (IP), both GSR and IP associated to any utility function. By the fact that GSR and IP are identical indexes, empiric tests were conducted between SRc and GSR. The indexes were evaluated theoretically under two different aspects: retrospective analysis, i.e., analyze the observed monthly log-returns, and prospective analysis, i.e., series to occur. Under prospective view, ex ante facto, SRc (Sharpe ratio with normal state variable) and SRd (Sharpe ratio with lognormal state variable), for being associated to the quadratic utility function, show the inherent problems to utility functions such as the bliss point and the pump money economic agent. The same happens in a retrospective view, ex post facto, with the GSR (performance potential with HARA utility function family) when the risk aversion coefficient equals minus one, gama=-1. Therefore, the GSR can be associated to different utility functions avoiding the undesirable effects. Under the GBM (geometric Brownian motion) condition and HARA utility function for the Brazilian and American adjusted monthly stock prices and indexes monthly points during January 2000 and March 2008, we reached the following: (1) results indicate that GSR for quadratic utility has high correlation level with SRc; (2) while the logarithmic utility showed lowest correlation level between GSR and SRc; (3) exponential utilities showed a high level of correlation between GSR and SRc. The results showed that GSR with exponential utility kept the biggest behavior difference for the GSR with quadratic utility. Based on the knowing problems of the quadratic utility, GSR with gama=1 seems to be a better index choice for risk assets classification.