The paper studies structural credit risk models with incomplete information of the asset value. It is shown that the pricing of typical corporate securities such as equity, corporate bonds or CDSs leads to a nonlinear filtering problem. This problem cannot be tackled with standard techniques as the default time does not have an intensity under full information. We therefore transform the problem to a standard filtering problem for a stopped diffusion process. This problem is analyzed via SPDE results from the filtering literature. In particular we are able to characterize the default intensity under incomplete information in terms of the conditional density of the asset value process. Moreover, we give an explicit description of the dynamics of corporate security prices. Finally, we explain how the model can be applied to the pricing of bond and equity options and we present results from a number of numerical experiments.

The goal of this research is to achieve accurate characterization of multi-layered soft tissues in three dimensions using focused ultrasound. The characterization of the acoustic parameters of each tissue layer is formulated as recursive processes of forward- and inverse- scattering. Forward scattering deals with the modeling of focused ultrasound wave propagation in multi-layered tissues, and the computation of the focused wave amplitudes in the tissues based on the acoustic parameters of the tissue as generated by inverse scattering. The model for mapping the tissue acoustic parameters to focused waves is highly nonlinear and stochastic. In addition, solving (or inverting) the model to obtain tissue acoustic parameters is an ill-posed problem. Therefore, a nonlinear stochastic inverse scattering method is proposed such that no linearization and mathematical inversion of the model are required. Inverse scattering aims to estimate the tissue acoustic parameters based on the forward scattering model and ultrasound measurements of the tissues. A multi-scale stochastic filter (MSF) is proposed to perform inverse scattering. MSF generates a set of tissue acoustic parameters, which are then mapped into focused wave amplitudes in the multi-layered tissues by forward scattering. The tissue acoustic parameters are weighted by comparing their focused wave amplitudes to the actual ultrasound measurements. The weighted parameters are used to estimate a weighted Gaussian mixture as the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the parameters. This PDF is optimized to achieve minimum estimation error variance in the sense of the posterior Cramer-Rao bound. The optimized posterior PDF is used to produce minimum mean-square-error estimates of the tissue acoustic parameters. As a result, both the estimation error and uncertainty of the parameters are minimized. PDF optimization is formulated based on a novel multi-scale PDF analysis framework. This framework is founded based on exploiting the analogy between PDFs and analog (or digital) signals. PDFs and signals are similar in the sense that they represent characteristics of variables in their respective domains, except that there are constraints imposed on PDFs. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider a PDF as a signal that is subject to amplitude constraints, and as such apply signal processing techniques to analyze the PDF. The multi-scale PDF analysis framework is proposed to recursively decompose an arbitrary PDF from its fine to coarse scales. The recursive decompositions are designed so as to ensure that requirements such as PDF constraints, zero-phase shift and non-creation of artifacts are satisfied. The relationship between the PDFs at consecutive scales is derived in order for the PDF optimization process to recursively reconstruct the posterior PDF from its coarse to fine scales. At each scale, PDF reconstruction aims to reduce the variances of the posterior PDF Gaussian components, and as a result the confidence in the estimate is increased. The overall posterior PDF variance reduction is guided by the posterior Cramer-Rao bound. A series of experiments is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed method on ultrasound multi-layered soft tissue characterization. Multi-layered tissue phantoms that emulate ocular components of the eye are fabricated as test subjects. Experimental results confirm that the proposed MSF inverse scattering approach is well suited for three-dimensional ultrasound tissue characterization. In addition, performance comparisons between MSF and a state-of-the-art nonlinear stochastic filter are conducted. Results show that MSF is more accurate and less computational intensive than the state-of-the-art filter.

The goal of this research is to achieve accurate characterization of multi-layered soft tissues in three dimensions using focused ultrasound. The characterization of the acoustic parameters of each tissue layer is formulated as recursive processes of forward- and inverse- scattering. Forward scattering deals with the modeling of focused ultrasound wave propagation in multi-layered tissues, and the computation of the focused wave amplitudes in the tissues based on the acoustic parameters of the tissue as generated by inverse scattering. The model for mapping the tissue acoustic parameters to focused waves is highly nonlinear and stochastic. In addition, solving (or inverting) the model to obtain tissue acoustic parameters is an ill-posed problem. Therefore, a nonlinear stochastic inverse scattering method is proposed such that no linearization and mathematical inversion of the model are required. Inverse scattering aims to estimate the tissue acoustic parameters based on the forward scattering model and ultrasound measurements of the tissues. A multi-scale stochastic filter (MSF) is proposed to perform inverse scattering. MSF generates a set of tissue acoustic parameters, which are then mapped into focused wave amplitudes in the multi-layered tissues by forward scattering. The tissue acoustic parameters are weighted by comparing their focused wave amplitudes to the actual ultrasound measurements. The weighted parameters are used to estimate a weighted Gaussian mixture as the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the parameters. This PDF is optimized to achieve minimum estimation error variance in the sense of the posterior Cramer-Rao bound. The optimized posterior PDF is used to produce minimum mean-square-error estimates of the tissue acoustic parameters. As a result, both the estimation error and uncertainty of the parameters are minimized. PDF optimization is formulated based on a novel multi-scale PDF analysis framework. This framework is founded based on exploiting the analogy between PDFs and analog (or digital) signals. PDFs and signals are similar in the sense that they represent characteristics of variables in their respective domains, except that there are constraints imposed on PDFs. Therefore, it is reasonable to consider a PDF as a signal that is subject to amplitude constraints, and as such apply signal processing techniques to analyze the PDF. The multi-scale PDF analysis framework is proposed to recursively decompose an arbitrary PDF from its fine to coarse scales. The recursive decompositions are designed so as to ensure that requirements such as PDF constraints, zero-phase shift and non-creation of artifacts are satisfied. The relationship between the PDFs at consecutive scales is derived in order for the PDF optimization process to recursively reconstruct the posterior PDF from its coarse to fine scales. At each scale, PDF reconstruction aims to reduce the variances of the posterior PDF Gaussian components, and as a result the confidence in the estimate is increased. The overall posterior PDF variance reduction is guided by the posterior Cramer-Rao bound. A series of experiments is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed method on ultrasound multi-layered soft tissue characterization. Multi-layered tissue phantoms that emulate ocular components of the eye are fabricated as test subjects. Experimental results confirm that the proposed MSF inverse scattering approach is well suited for three-dimensional ultrasound tissue characterization. In addition, performance comparisons between MSF and a state-of-the-art nonlinear stochastic filter are conducted. Results show that MSF is more accurate and less computational intensive than the state-of-the-art filter.

This thesis consists of five scientific papers dealing with equations related to the optimal switching problem, mainly backward stochastic differential equations and variational inequalities. Besides the scientific papers, the thesis contains an introduction to the optimal switching problem and a brief outline of possible topics for future research. Paper I concerns systems of variational inequalities with operators of Kolmogorov type. We prove a comparison principle for sub- and supersolutions and prove the existence of a solution as the limit of solutions to iteratively defined interconnected obstacle problems. Furthermore, we use regularity results for a related obstacle problem to prove Hölder continuity of this solution. Paper II deals with systems of variational inequalities in which the operator is of non-local type. By using a maximum principle adapted to this non-local setting we prove a comparison principle for sub- and supersolutions. Existence of a solution is proved using this comparison principle and Perron's method. In Paper III we study backward stochastic differential equations in which the solutions are reflected to stay inside a time-dependent domain. The driving process is of Wiener-Poisson type, allowing for jumps. By a penalization technique we prove existence of a solution when the bounding domain has convex and non-increasing time slices. Uniqueness is proved by an argument based on Ito's formula. Paper IV and Paper V concern optimal switching problems under incomplete information. In Paper IV, we construct an entirely simulation based numerical scheme to calculate the value function of such problems. We prove the convergence of this scheme when the underlying processes fit into the framework of Kalman-Bucy filtering. Paper V contains a deterministic approach to incomplete information optimal switching problems. We study a simplistic setting and show that the problem can be reduced to a full information optimal switching problem. Furthermore, we prove that the value of information is positive and that the value function under incomplete information converges to that under full information when the noise in the observation vanishes.

This doctoral thesis consists of five research articles on the general topic of optimal decision making under uncertainty in a Bayesian framework. The papers are preceded by three introductory chapters. Papers I and II are dedicated to the problem of finding an optimal stopping strategy to liquidate an asset with unknown drift. In Paper I, the price is modelled by the classical Black-Scholes model with unknown drift. The first passage time of the posterior mean below a monotone boundary is shown to be optimal. The boundary is characterised as the unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation. Paper II solves the same optimal liquidation problem, but in a more general model with stochastic regime-switching volatility. An optimal liquidation strategy and various structural properties of the problem are determined. In Paper III, the problem of sequentially testing the sign of the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion with the 0-1 loss function and a constant cost of observation per unit of time is studied from a Bayesian perspective. Optimal decision strategies for arbitrary prior distributions are determined and investigated. The strategies consist of two monotone stopping boundaries, which we characterise in terms of integral equations. In Paper IV, the problem of stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning point to maximise the expected value at the stopping time is studied. Besides a few general properties established, structural properties of an optimal strategy are shown to be sensitive to the prior. A general condition for a one-sided optimal stopping region is provided. Paper V deals with the problem of detecting a drift change of a Brownian motion under various extensions of the classical Wiener disorder problem. Monotonicity properties of the solution with respect to various model parameters are studied. Also, effects of a possible misspecification of the underlying model are explored.

In dieser Arbeit untersuchen wir die Struktur von Gausschen Prozessen, die durch gewisse lineare Transformationen von zwei Gausschen Martingalen erzeugt werden. Die Klasse dieser Transformationen ist durch nanzmathematische Gleichgewichtsmodelle mit heterogener Information motiviert. In Kapital 2 bestimmen wir für solche Prozesse, die zunächst in einer erweiterten Filtrierung konstruiert werden, die kanonische Zerlegung als Semimartin-gale in ihrer eigenen Filtrierung. Die resultierende Drift wird durch Volterra-Kerne beschrieben. Insbesondere charakterisieren wir diejenigen Prozesse, die in ihrer eigenen Filtrierung eine Brownsche Bewegung bilden. In Kapital 3 konstruieren wir neue orthogonale Zerlegungen der Brownschen Filtrierungen. In den Kapitaln 4 bis 6 wenden wir unsere Resultate zur Charakterisierung Brownscher Bewegungen im Kontext nanzmathematischer Modelle an, in denen es Marktteilnehmer mit zusätzlicher Insider-Information gibt. Wir untersuchen Erweiterungen eines Gleichgewichtsmodells von Kyle [42] und Back [7], in denen die Insider-Information in verschiedener Weise durch Gaussche Martingale spezifiziert wird. Insbesondere klären wir die Struktur von Insider-Strategien, die insofern unaufallig bleiben, als sich die resultierende Gesamtnachfrage wie eine Brownsche Bewegung verhält. / In this thesis, we study Gaussian processes generated by certain linear transformations of two Gaussian martingales. This class of transformations is motivated by nancial equilibrium models with heterogeneous information. In Chapter 2 we derive the canonical decomposition of such processes, which are constructed in an enlarged ltration, as semimartingales in their own ltration. The resulting drift is described in terms of Volterra kernels. In particular we characterize those processes which are Brownian motions in their own ltration. In Chapter 3 we construct new orthogonal decompositions of Brownian ltrations. In Chapters 4 to 6 we are concerned with applications of our characterization results in the context of mathematical models of insider trading. We analyze extensions of the nancial equilibrium model of Kyle [42] and Back [7] where the Gaussian martingale describing the insider information is specified in various ways. In particular we discuss the structure of insider strategies which remain inconspicuous in the sense that the resulting cumulative demand is again a Brownian motion.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:56:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IsabelleMC.pdf: 1004057 bytes, checksum: b47eb9a45b0341f4dca9a97680f4953d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-07-31 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient?fico e Tecnol?gico / This work considers the development of a filtering system composed of an intelligent algorithm, that separates information and noise coming from sensors interconnected by Foundation Fieldbus (FF) network. The algorithm implementation will be made through FF standard function blocks, with on-line training through OPC (OLE for Process Control), and embedded technology in a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) that interacts with the fieldbus devices. The technique ICA (Independent Component Analysis), that explores the possibility of separating mixed signals based on the fact that they are statistically independent, was chosen to this Blind Source Separation (BSS) process. The algorithm and its implementations will be Presented, as well as the results / Este trabalho prop?e o desenvolvimento de um sistema de filtragem composto por um algoritmo inteligente, capaz de separar informa??o e ru?dos provenientes de sensores de campo interligados por uma rede Foundation Fieldbus (FF). A implementa??o do algoritmo ser? feita tanto em blocos funcionais padr?o da pr?pria rede FF, com treinamento on-line via OPC (OLE for Process Control), como em tecnologia embarcada em um DSP (Digital Signal Processor) que interage com os dispositivos fieldbus. A t?cnica ICA (Independent Component Analysis), que explora a possibilidade de separar uma mistura de sinais baseando-se no fato de que eles s?o estatisticamente independentes, foi escolhida para realizar este processo de separa??o cega de fontes (Blind Source Separation - BSS). O algoritmo e suas implementa??es ser?o apresentados, bem como os resultados obtidos

Au cours de cette thèse, le problème général de la conception de méthodes couplées de contrôle et d'estimation pour des systèmes dynamiques non linéaires a été étudié. La cible principale était la navigation par corrélation de terrain (TAN en anglais), où le problème était de guider et d’estimer la position 3D d’un drone survolant une zone connue. Dans cette application, on suppose que les seules données disponibles sont la vitesse du système, une mesure de la différence entre l'altitude absolue du drone et l'altitude du sol survolé et une carte du sol. La TAN est un bon exemple d'application non linéaire dans laquelle le principe de séparation ne peut pas être appliqué. En réalité, la qualité des observations dépend du contrôle et plus précisément de la zone survolée par le drone. Par conséquent, il existe un besoin de méthodes couplées d'estimation et de contrôle. Il est à noter que le problème d'estimation créé par TAN est en soi difficile à analyser et à résoudre. En particulier, les sujets suivants ont été traités:• Conception d'observateur non linéaire et commande en retour de sortie pour la TAN avec des cartes au terrain analytiquesdans un cadre déterministe à temps continu.• La modélisation conjointe du filtrage optimal non linéaire et du contrôle optimal stochastique en temps discretavec des informations imparfaites.• la conception de schémas de contrôle prédictif stochastique duaux associés à un filtre particulaire et leur implémentation numérique pour la TAN. / During this PhD, the general problem of designing coupled control and estimation methods for nonlinear dynamical systems has been investigated. The main target application was terrain-aided navigation (TAN), where the problem is to guide and estimate the 3D position of a drone flying over a known area. In this application, it is assumed that the only available data are the speed of the system, a measurement of the difference between the absolute altitude of the drone and the altitude of the ground flied over and a map of the ground. TAN is a good example of a nonlinear application where the separation principle cannot be applied. Actually, the quality of the observations depends on the control and more precisely on the area that is flied over by the drone. Therefore, there is a need for coupled estimation and control methods. It is to be noted that the estimation problem created by TAN is in itself difficult to analyse and solve. In particular, the following topics have been treated:• Nonlinear observer design and outputfeedback control for TAN with analytical ground mapsin a deterministic continuous-time framework.• The joint modelling of nonlinear optimal filtering and discrete-time stochastic optimal controlwith imperfect information.• The design of output-feedback Explicit dual stochastic MPC schemes coupled with a particlefilter and their numerical implementation to TAN.

Stable and computationally efficient reconstruction methodologies are developed to solve two important medical imaging problems which use near-infrared (NIR) light as the source of interrogation, namely, diffuse optical tomography (DOT) and one of its variations, ultrasound-modulated optical tomography (UMOT). Since in both these imaging modalities the system matrices are ill-conditioned owing to insufficient and noisy data, the emphasis in this work is to develop robust stochastic filtering algorithms which can handle measurement noise and also account for inaccuracies in forward models through an appropriate assignment of a process noise. However, we start with demonstration of speeding of a Gauss-Newton (GN) algorithm for DOT so that a video-rate reconstruction from data recorded on a CCD camera is rendered feasible. Towards this, a computationally efficient linear iterative scheme is proposed to invert the normal equation of a Gauss-Newton scheme in the context of recovery of absorption coefficient distribution from DOT data, which involved the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix appearing in the update equation. This has sufficiently speeded up the inversion that a video rate recovery of time evolving absorption coefficient distribution is demonstrated from experimental data. The SVD-based algorithm has made the number of operations in image reconstruction to be rather than. 2()ONN3()ONN The rest of the algorithms are based on different forms of stochastic filtering wherein we arrive at a mean-square estimate of the parameters through computing their joint probability distributions conditioned on the measurement up to the current instant. Under this, the first algorithm developed uses a Bootstrap particle filter which also uses a quasi-Newton direction within. Since keeping track of the Newton direction necessitates repetitive computation of the Jacobian, for all particle locations and for all time steps, to make the recovery computationally feasible, we devised a faster update of the Jacobian. It is demonstrated, through analytical reasoning and numerical simulations, that the proposed scheme, not only accelerates convergence but also yields substantially reduced sample variance in the estimates vis-à-vis the conventional BS filter. Both accelerated convergence and reduced sample variance in the estimates are demonstrated in DOT optical parameter recovery using simulated and experimental data. In the next demonstration a derivative free variant of the pseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF) is developed for DOT wherein the size of the unknown parameter is reduced by representing of the inhomogeneities through simple geometrical shapes. Also the optical parameter fields within the inhomogeneities are approximated via an expansion based on the circular harmonics (CH) (Fourier basis functions). The EnKF is then used to recover the coefficients in the expansion with both simulated and experimentally obtained photon fluence data on phantoms with inhomogeneous inclusions. The process and measurement equations in the Pseudo-Dynamic EnKF (PD-EnKF) presently yield a parsimonious representation of the filter variables, which consist of only the Fourier coefficients and the constant scalar parameter value within the inclusion. Using fictitious, low-intensity Wiener noise processes in suitably constructed ‘measurement’ equations, the filter variables are treated as pseudo-stochastic processes so that their recovery within a stochastic filtering framework is made possible. In our numerical simulations we have considered both elliptical inclusions (two inhomogeneities) and those with more complex shapes ( such as an annular ring and a dumbbell) in 2-D objects which are cross-sections of a cylinder with background absorption and (reduced) scattering coefficient chosen as = 0.01 mm-1 and = 1.0 mm-1respectively. We also assume=0.02 mm-1 within the inhomogeneity (for the single inhomogeneity case) and=0.02 and 0.03 mm-1 (for the two inhomogeneities case). The reconstruction results by the PD-EnKF are shown to be consistently superior to those through a deterministic and explicitly regularized Gauss-Newton algorithm. We have also estimated the unknown from experimentally gathered fluence data and verified the reconstruction by matching the experimental data with the computed one. The superiority of a modified version of the PD-EnKF, which uses an ensemble square root filter, is also demonstrated in the context of UMOT by recovering the distribution of mean-squared amplitude of vibration, related to the Young’s modulus, in the ultrasound focal volume. Since the ability of a coherent light probe to pick-up the overall optical path-length change is limited to modulo an optical wavelength, the individual displacements suffered owing to the US forcing should be very small, say within a few angstroms. The sensitivity of modulation depth to changes in these small displacements could be very small, especially when the ROI is far removed from the source and detector. The contrast recovery of the unknown distribution in such cases could be seriously impaired whilst using a quasi-Newton scheme (e.g. the GN scheme) which crucially makes use of the derivative information. The derivative-free gain-based Monte Carlo filter not only remedies this deficiency, but also provides a regularization insensitive and computationally competitive alternative to the GN scheme. The inherent ability of a stochastic filter in accommodating the model error owing to a diffusion approximation of the correlation transport may be cited as an added advantage in the context of the UMOT inverse problem. Finally to speed up forward solve of the partial differential equation (PDE) modeling photon transport in the context of UMOT for which the PDE has time as a parameter, a spectral decomposition of the PDE operator is demonstrated. This allows the computation of the time dependent forward solution in terms of the eigen functions of the PDE operator which has speeded up the forward solution, which in turn has rendered the UMOT parameter recovery computationally efficient.

This thesis essentially deals with the development and numerical explorations of a few improved Monte Carlo filters for nonlinear dynamical systems with a view to estimating the associated states and parameters (i.e. the hidden states appearing in the system or process model) based on the available noisy partial observations. The hidden states are characterized, subject to modelling errors, by the weak solutions of the process model, which is typically in the form of a system of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SDEs). The unknown system parameters, when included as pseudo-states within the process model, are made to evolve as Wiener processes. The observations may also be modelled by a set of measurement SDEs or, when collected at discrete time instants, their temporally discretized maps. The proposed Monte Carlo filters aim at achieving robustness (i.e. insensitivity to variations in the noise parameters) and higher accuracy in the estimates whilst retaining the important feature of applicability to large dimensional nonlinear filtering problems. The thesis begins with a brief review of the literature in Chapter 1. The first development, reported in Chapter 2, is that of a nearly exact, semi-analytical, weak and explicit linearization scheme called Girsanov Corrected Linearization Method (GCLM) for nonlinear mechanical oscillators under additive stochastic excitations. At the heart of the linearization is a temporally localized rejection sampling strategy that, combined with a resampling scheme, enables selecting from and appropriately modifying an ensemble of locally linearized trajectories whilst weakly applying the Girsanov correction (the Radon- Nikodym derivative) for the linearization errors. Through their numeric implementations for a few workhorse nonlinear oscillators, the proposed variants of the scheme are shown to exhibit significantly higher numerical accuracy over a much larger range of the time step size than is possible with the local drift-linearization schemes on their own. The above scheme for linearization correction is exploited and extended in Chapter 3, wherein novel variations within a particle filtering algorithm are proposed to weakly correct for the linearization or integration errors that occur while numerically propagating the process dynamics. Specifically, the correction for linearization, provided by the likelihood or the Radon-Nikodym derivative, is incorporated in two steps. Once the likelihood, an exponential martingale, is split into a product of two factors, correction owing to the first factor is implemented via rejection sampling in the first step. The second factor, being directly computable, is accounted for via two schemes, one employing resampling and the other, a gain-weighted innovation term added to the drift field of the process SDE thereby overcoming excessive sample dispersion by resampling. The proposed strategies, employed as add-ons to existing particle filters, the bootstrap and auxiliary SIR filters in this work, are found to non-trivially improve the convergence and accuracy of the estimates and also yield reduced mean square errors of such estimates visà-vis those obtained through the parent filtering schemes. In Chapter 4, we explore the possibility of unscented transformation on Gaussian random variables, as employed within a scaled Gaussian sum stochastic filter, as a means of applying the nonlinear stochastic filtering theory to higher dimensional system identification problems. As an additional strategy to reconcile the evolving process dynamics with the observation history, the proposed filtering scheme also modifies the process model via the incorporation of gain-weighted innovation terms. The reported numerical work on the identification of dynamic models of dimension up to 100 is indicative of the potential of the proposed filter in realizing the stated aim of successfully treating relatively larger dimensional filtering problems. We propose in Chapter 5 an iterated gain-based particle filter that is consistent with the form of the nonlinear filtering (Kushner-Stratonovich) equation in our attempt to treat larger dimensional filtering problems with enhanced estimation accuracy. A crucial aspect of the proposed filtering set-up is that it retains the simplicity of implementation of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The numerical results obtained via EnKF-like simulations with or without a reduced-rank unscented transformation also indicate substantively improved filter convergence. The final contribution, reported in Chapter 6, is an iterative, gain-based filter bank incorporating an artificial diffusion parameter and may be viewed as an extension of the iterative filter in Chapter 5. While the filter bank helps in exploring the phase space of the state variables better, the iterative strategy based on the artificial diffusion parameter, which is lowered to zero over successive iterations, helps improve the mixing property of the associated iterative update kernels and these are aspects that gather importance for highly nonlinear filtering problems, including those involving significant initial mismatch of the process states and the measured ones. Numerical evidence of remarkably enhanced filter performance is exemplified by target tracking and structural health assessment applications. The thesis is finally wound up in Chapter 7 by summarizing these developments and briefly outlining the future research directions