Estudos sobre a manutenção da diversidade cultural sugerem que o mecanismo de interação social, normalmente considerado como responsável pela homogeneização cultural, também pode gerar diversidade. Com o intuito de estudar esse fenômeno, o cientista político Robert Axelrod propôs um modelo baseado em agentes que exibe estados absorventes multiculturais a partir de uma interação homofílica homogeneizadora entre os agentes. Nesse modelo, a diversidade (ou desordem) cultural é produzida pela escolha dos fatores culturais iniciais dos agentes e a interação homofílica age apenas no sentido de reduzir a desordem inicial. Em virtude de sua simplicidade, várias releituras e variações do modelo de Axelrod são encontradas na literatura: introdução de uma mídia externa, alterações da conectividade dos agentes, inserção de perturbações aleatórias, etc. Entretanto, essas propostas carecem de uma análise sistemática do comportamento do modelo no limite termodinâmico, ou seja, no limite em que o número de agentes tende a infinito. Essa tese foca primariamente nesse tipo de análise nos casos em que os agentes estão fixos nos sítios de uma rede quadrada ou nos sítios de uma cadeia unidimensional. Em particular, quando os fatores culturais iniciais dos agentes são gerados por uma distribuição de Poisson, caracterizamos, através de simulações de Monte Carlo, a transição entre a fase ordenada (pelo menos um domínio cultural ´e macroscópico) e a fase desordenada (todos os domínios culturais são microscópicos) na rede quadrada. Entretanto, não encontramos evidência de uma fase ordenada na cadeia unidimensional. Já para fatores culturais iniciais gerados por uma distribuição uniforme, observamos a transição de fase tanto na rede unidimensional como na bidimensional. Por fim, mostramos que a introdução de um campo externo espacialmente uniforme, cuja interpretação é a de uma mídia global influenciando a opinião dos agentes, elimina o regime monocultural do modelo de Axelrod no limite termodinâmico. / Studies on the maintenance of cultural diversity suggest that the mechanism of social interaction, generally regarded as responsible for cultural homogenization, may also generate diversity. In order to study this phenomenon, the political scientist Robert Axelrod proposed an agent-based model that exhibits multicultural absorbing states, despite the homophilic and homogenizing character of the interaction between agents. In this model the cultural diversity (or disorder) is produced by the choice of the initial cultural traits of the agents, and the homphilic interaction acts towards the reduction of the initial disorder. Due to its simplicity, several re-examinations and variants of Axelrods model are found in the literature: the introduction of an external media, changes in the connectivity of the agents, introduction of random perturbations, etc. However, these proposals lack a systematic analysis of the behavior of the model in the thermodynamic limit, i.e., in the limit that the number of agents tends to infinity. This thesis focuses mainly on that type of analysis in the cases the agents are fixed in the sites of a square lattice or in the sites of a chain. In particular, when the initial cultural traits of the agents are generated by a Poisson distribution we characterize, through Monte Carlo simulations, the transition between the ordered phase (at least one macroscopic cultural domain) and the disordered phase (only microscopic domains) in the square lattice. However, we found no evidence of an ordered phase in the one-dimensional lattice (chain). For initial cultural traits generated by a uniform distribution, we find a phase transition in both the one and two-dimensional lattices. Finally, we show that the introduction of a spatially uniform external field, which can be interpreted as a global media influencing the opinion of the agents, eliminates the monocultural regime of Axelrods model in the thermodynamic limit.

L'objectif de cette thèse porte sur l'étude des phénomènes de blocage dans un flux particules à faible densité dans un canal. Le blocage est induit par la géométrie du canal. L'essentiel de mes travaux concerne la description des situations où le blocage est contrôlé par les limites en capacité d'un canal. Le paramètre pertinent pour ce phénomène est donné par le nombre de particules minimum, N, conduisant à l'interruption du flux de particules. Un modèle stochastique simple introduit par Gabrielli et al. (PRL. 110, 170601, 2013) illustre ce comportement: des particules arrivent aléatoirement selon une distribution de Poisson à l'entrée d'un canal unidimensionnel et le traversent avec un temps constant, noté t. Le blocage survient lorsque N particules sont simultanément sur le pont. Le travail de cette thèse à été d'étudier les extensions de ce modèle. Les observables du système sont la probabilité de survie, le flux sortant ainsi que la statistique sur les particules sorties avant le blocage. Les différentes études ont permis pour le cas N>2, pour une distribution homogène quelconque et inhomogène d'entrée, pour un système de multi-canaux ainsi que pour une durée finie de blocage d'obtenir des résultats analytiques exactes ainsi que des approximations à l'aide d'outils statistique. Le dernier projet de cette thèse porte sur l'étude microscopique des phénomènes de blocage. Le modèle simple que nous avons étudié est un système bidimensionnel de particules browniennes soumis à une force de traînée et se déplaçant dans un canal avec rétrécissement. La présence d'un obstacle au milieu du canal peut causer un colmatage selon les valeurs des différents paramètres du système. / This manuscript presents a study of blocking phenomenon in particulate streams flowing through anarrow channel. In particular, it examines situations in which blocking is controlled by the limitedcarrying capacity of the channel. It builds on a simple stochastic model, introduced by Gabrielli etal. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 170601, 2013), in which particles arrive randomly according to a Poissondistribution at the entrance of a one-dimensional channel with an intensity λ and, unless interrupted,exit after a transit time, τ. Blocking occurs instantaneously when N=2 particles are simultaneouslypresent in the channel. The quantities of interest include the probability that the channel is still openat time t (survival probability) and the flux and total number of exiting particles. The thesisexamines a number of generalizations including when more than two particles must be present toinduce blockage, N>2, a time dependent intensity, a finite blocking time, and multi-channelsystems. We obtain exact and approximate analytical results using tools such as the masterequations describing the evolution of the n-particle partial probabilities, large deviation theory andqueuing theory. The theoretical results are validated by comparison with the results of numericalsimulations. The final chapter of the thesis uses a different approach, namely a brownian dynamics simulation of a two dimensional system of soft particles subjected to an external driving and dragforces. The presence of an obstacle in the middle of the channel can cause irreversible orintermittent clogging depending on the system geometry, temperature and particle stiffness.

Ce travail de thèse porte sur la modélisation et la simulation numérique de la collision et l'agglomération de particules colloïdales dans un écoulement fluide turbulent par une nouvelle méthode. Ces particules sont sensibles dans une même mesure aux effets brownien et turbulent. La première partie du travail concerne la modélisation du phénomène physique,allant du transport des particules jusqu'à la modélisation des forces d'adhésion physico-chimiques en passant par l'étape cruciale qui est la détection des interactions entre les particules (collisions). Cette détection des collisions est dans un premier temps étudiée par rapport aux algorithmes classiques existants dans la littérature. Bien que très efficaces dans le cadre de particules soumises à l'agitation turbulente, les conclusions de cette partie exposent les limites des méthodes existantes en termes de coûts numériques, pour le traitement d'un ensemble de colloïdes soumis au mouvement brownien. La seconde partie du travail oriente alors les travaux vers une vision novatrice du phénomène physique considéré. Le caractère diffusif aléatoire est alors considéré d'un point de vu stochastique, comme un processus conditionné dans l'espace et dans le temps. Ainsi, une nouvelle méthode de détection et de traitement des collisions de particules soumises exclusivement à un mouvement diffusif est présentée et validée, exposant un gain considérable en termes de coûts numériques. Le potentiel de cette nouvelle approche est validé et ouvre de nombreuses pistes de réflexion dans l'utilisation des méthodes stochastiques appliqués à la représentation de la physique / Ph.D thesis focuses on modeling and numerical simulation of collision and agglomeration of colloidal particles in a turbulent flow by using a new method. These particles are affected by both Brownian and turbulent effects. The first part of the work deals with current models of the physical phenomenon, from the transport of single particles to a model for physico-chemical adhesive forces, and points out the critical step which is the detection of interactions between particles (collisions). This detection is initially studied by applying classical algorithms existing in the literature. Although they are very efficient in the context of particles subject to turbulent agitation, first conclusions show the limitations of these existing methods in terms of numerical costs, considering the treatment of colloids subject to the Brownian motion. The second part of this work proposes a new vision of the physical phenomenon focusing on the random diffusive behaviour. This issue is adressed from a stochastic point of view as a process conditionned in space and time. Thus, a new method for the detection and treatment of collisions is presented and validated, which represents considerable gain in terms of numerical cost. The potential of this new approach is validated and opens new opportunities for the use of stochastic methods applied to the representation of physics

Notre thèse s’articule autour du thème de l’utilisation optimale de l’information contenue dans un modèle probabiliste flexible. Dans le premier chapitre, nous couvrons des résultats bien connus des martingales comme le théorème de convergence dit L1 des martingales et le théorème d’arrêt. Nous discutons de problèmes ouverts similaires au «last arrival problem» (Bruss et Yor, 2012) qui sont des vrais défis du point de vue théorique et nous ne pouvons que conjecturer la stratégie optimale.Dans les chapitres suivants, nous résolvons des extensions de problèmes d’arrêt optimal proposés par R. R. Weber (U. Cambridge), basés sur le «théorème des odds» (Bruss, 2000). En résumé, il s’agit d’effectuer une seule action (un seul arrêt) lorsque deux suites d’observations indépendantes sont observées simultanément. Nous donnons la solution à ces problèmes pour un nombre (fixé) choisi de processus.Le chapitre suivant passe en revue la plupart des développements récents (depuis 2000) réalisés autour du «théorème des odds» (Bruss, 2000). Le matériel présenté fut publié (2013), il a donc été mis à jour dans cette thèse pour inclure les derniers résultats depuis cette date.Puis nous réservons un chapitre pour une solution explicite pour un cas particulier du Problème d’arrêt optimal de Robbins. Ce chapitre est basé sur un article publié par l’auteur en collaboration avec le professeur Swan (Université de Liège). Ce chapitre offre une belle illustration des difficultés rencontrées lorsque trop d’information sur les variables est contenue dans le modèle. La solution optimale de ce problème dans le cas général n’est pas connue. Par contre, contre-intuitivement, dans le «last arrival problem» mentionné plus haut, moins d’information permet, comme nous le montrons, de trouver en effet la solution optimale.La thèse contient un dernier chapitre sur un problème de nature plus combinatoire que nous pouvons lier à la théorie des graphes dans une certaine mesure. Nous étudions le processus de création d’un graphe aléatoire particulier et les propriétés des cycles créés par celui-ci. Le problème est séquentiel et permet d’envisager des problèmes d’arrêt intéressants. Cette étude a des conséquences en théorie des graphes, en analyse combinatoire ainsi qu’en science de la chimie combinatoire pour les applications. Un de nos résultats est analogue au résultat de Janson (1987) relatif au premier cycle créé pendant la création de graphes aléatoires. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The aim of this thesis is to define and study stochastic models of repairable systems and the application of these models to biological systems, especially for cell survival after irradiation with ionizing radiation.

Lors de la conception des avions, il est courant que les constructeurs évaluent la sûreté de fonctionnement en utilisant des modèles stochastiques, mais l'évaluation de la fiabilité opérationnelle à l’aide de modèles en ligne, pendant la réalisation des missions, reste rarement effectuée. Souvent, l'évaluation stochastique concerne la sécurité des avions. Cette thèse porte sur la modélisation de la fiabilité opérationnelle des avions, pour aider à la planification des activités de maintenance et des missions, ainsi qu’à la bonne réalisation de ces dernières. Nous avons développé une approche de modélisation, basée sur un méta-modèle qui sert de base i) de structuration des informations nécessaires à l’évaluation de la fiabilité opérationnelle d’un avion et ii) pour la construction de modèles stochastiques pouvant être mis à jour dynamiquement. La mise à jour concerne l'état courant des systèmes avion, un profil de mission et les moyens de maintenance disponibles dans les diverses escales incluses dans le profil de la mission. L'objectif est de permettre l'évaluation de la fiabilité opérationnelle en ligne. Deux cas d’études, basés sur des sous-systèmes avion, sont considérés à titre d'illustration. Nous présentons des exemples de résultats qui montrent le rôle important de l’évaluation de la fiabilité opérationnelle pendant une mission d’avion / Dependability assessment, by system manufacturer, during aircraft design, based on stochastic modeling, is of common practice, but model based operational dependability assessment online, during missions' achievement, is seldom done. Usually, the stochastic assessment addresses aircraft safety.This thesis addresses aircraft operational dependability modeling to support mission and maintenance planning, as well as the achievement of the missions. We develop a modeling approach, based on a meta-model that is used as a basis i) to structure the information needed to assess aircraft operational reliability and ii) to build a stochastic model that can be updated dynamically. The update concerns the current state of the aircraft system, a mission profile and the maintenance facilities available at the flight stop locations involved in the mission. The aim is to enable operational reliability assessment online. Two case studies, based on aircraft subsystems, are considered for illustration. We present examples of evaluation results that show the valuable role of operational dependability assessment during aircraft mission

Digitalisering, datainsamling och de kraftigt utökade databaser som idag finns tillgängliga är något som resulterat i stora förändringar i hur man arbetar, detta gäller många branscher och inte minst fastighetsbranschen. Den ökade mängden tillgängliga data är ett stort hjälpmedel när det kommet till att ta beslut. För att på bästa sätt ta vara på all denna data krävs det dock att nya metoder och verktyg utvecklas eller gamla anpassas. Oavsett hur mycket data som finns tillgänglig kommer det dock alltid finnas osäkerheter att ta hänsyn till. Stokastiska modeller har tagits fram just för att hantera både stora mängder data och som hjälpmedel för att uppskatta osäkerhet. Idag används stokastiska modeller inom många olika branscher såsom finans, medicin samt inom forskning i fysik, matematik och statistik. Än idag har de dock en mycket liten roll när det kommer till investeringsbeslut inom fastighetsbranschen Syftet med detta arbete är att undersöka om stokastiska modeller i framtiden kommer att ha en större roll när det kommer till investeringsbeslut inom fastighetsbranschen, samt vad den idag begränsade användningen beror på. Dessutom syftar arbetet på att belysa de skillnader, samt för- och nackdelar som finns hos och mellan deterministiska och stokastiska modeller tillämpade för att assistera beslutsprocessen kring investeringar i fastigheter. Det kommer göras dels genom en intervjustudie med verksamma inom branschen med erfarenhet av arbete med investeringsbeslut. Detta för att höra deras syn på huruvida det idag finns ett motstånd mot stokastiska modeller och om de tror att stokastiska modeller kommer ha en större roll i framtiden. Men också genom en litteraturstudie av tidigare arbeten. Slutsatsen från arbetet är det tydligt att det finns skillnader mellan deterministiska och stokastiska modeller, något som även gör att det till viss del ger olika resultat, även om avvikelserna som betraktades under detta arbete inte var speciellt omfattande. Detta kan stöttas av Jensen`s Inequality samt The Flaw of Averages, vilket tyder på att det kan var så att både risk och möjlighet idag under- eller överskattas. När det kommer till stokastiska modellers framtid inom investeringsbeslut i fastigheter var respondenterna relativt eniga i att de inte skulle bli någon större skillnad mot idag. Detta skulle dock kunna förändras om några skulle börja använda modellerna då detta skulle kunna leda till att fler följer efter. Effekten skulle också kunna accelereras om digitalisering, förbättrade databaser och AI skulle ge modellerna möjlighet att uppskatta mjuka parameter och ta med dessa i sina beräkningar. / Digitalization, data collection and the significantly increased databases that today are accessible have resulted in new work methods in several different industries, one of them being the real estate industry. The increased amount of data accessible can assist in a lot of different situations, for example being a great basis for decision making. To be able to utilize the data in the best way possible, however, either new methods and tools or a change in current methods to adapt to the new conditions that exist is needed. These methods also must be able to handle uncertainty since it will always exist, no matter the amount of data. Stochastic models are previously developed to do just that, handle large amounts of data and at the same time work as a tool for working with uncertainty. Stochastic models are today used in a lot of different industries including finance, medicine, and computer science but also to assist research in mathematics, physics, and statistics. Still today, however, the use is very limited when it comes to real estate investments. The aim of this thesis is to research the possibility of an increased use of stochastic models in real estate investments in the future and the reason for it being very limited today. The thesis also aims to illustrate the differences between deterministic and stochastic models and the pros and cons that follows. To achieve this several interviews with real estate professionals with experience in investment decisions were conducted. In addition to this a literature review was made to analyze previous work on the topic and to collect information considering the differences between deterministic and stochastic models. To summarize the results from this study there are some clear differences between deterministic and stochastic models which in this case also lead to different results, even if it in this study is a minor difference. This finding is supported by Jensen’s Inequality and The Flaw of averages which shows that models used today may both under- and overestimate both the risk and opportunity of an investment. When it comes to the future of stochastic models in real estate investments the respondents were quite united in their believe that not much will change from today. This could change however, if some started to use the models many thought other would follow. This effect might also be accelerated if digitalization, increased databases, and AI could result in better estimates of soft parameters and use it in its calculations.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-04T18:50:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese.pdf: 5590910 bytes, checksum: a89ccd96ade2b696f0e5b9163dc31bf5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-11-13 / Lagrangian stochastic models are a largely used tool in the study of passive substances dispersion inside the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. Its application is related to the trajectory computation of thousands of particles, that numerically simulate the dispersion of suspense substances in the atmosphere. In this study, the basic concepts related to the Lagrangian stochastic modelling are presented and discussed together with its main characteristics and its computational implementation, to the study of particles dispersion in the atmosphere. In a computational experiment, the obtained results are compared with observational data from the TRACT experiment, that took place in Europe in 1992. The input data needed for the dispersion model are extracted from simulations with the numerical weather forecast model RAMS. Dispersion over Rio de Janeiro region is also tested in a second experiment. / Modelos Lagrangianos estocásticos constituem ferramenta muito utilizada no estudo da dispersão de substâncias passivas na Camada Limite Atmosférica. Sua aplicação consiste em calcular a trajetória de milhares de partículas, que simulam numericamente a dispersão de uma substância em suspensão na atmosfera. Nesta tese, são apresentados e discutidos os conceitos básicos relacionados à Modelagem Lagrangiana Estocástica de Partículas, bem como suas principais características e sua implementação computacional, para o estudo da dispersão de partículas na atmosfera. Numa experimentação computacional, comparam-se os resultados obtidos com dados observacionais provenientes do experimento TRACT, realizado na Europa em 1992. Os dados de entrada necessários ao modelo de dispersão são extraídos de simulações do modelo de previsão numérica do tempo RAMS. A dispersão sobre o Estado do Rio de Janeiro é também testada em um segundo experimento.

[pt] Sintetizadores de séries temporais de atenuação por chuva constituem um importante recurso para o projeto, teste e otimização de Técnicas de Mitigação de Desvanecimento. Como dados experimentais de propagação não estão disponíveis para todas as configurações possíveis de enlaces Terra-espaço, a síntese de séries temporais de atenuação por chuva torna-se uma solução interessante, permitindo a reprodução das características dinâmicas de longa duração da atenuação pela chuva. Nesta tese de doutorado, modelos de canal capazes de sintetizar períodos curtos e longos de atenuação por chuva são analisados, testados e validados para os climas tropical e equatorial brasileiros. Aspectos críticos que determinam o correto comportamento destes geradores de séries temporais são analisados e sua faixa de validade é apresentada. Em regiões de clima tropical e equatorial, o desenvolvimento insuficiente da estrutura de telecomunicações terrestre e, por vezes, a necessidade de vencer distâncias continentais, amplificam a necessidade de implementação de sistemas de comunicação por satélite no médio prazo. Tais sistemas apresentam a vantagem de servir grandes áreas com curto tempo de implantação e a possibilidade de atingir mercado considerável. Para as novas aplicações, fortemente focadas em conteúdo multimídia para consumidores corporativos e residenciais, a banda C não é atraente porque o desenvolvimento de novos sistemas com pequenos terminais, como desejado, é incompatível com as grandes antenas necessárias para a proteção dos sistemas existentes nesta banda. Para o fornecimento de serviços multimídia a altas taxas é previsto o uso da banda Ka. Problemas de propagação são severos nestas altas faixas de frequência de forma que figuras de mérito padrão para desempenho e disponibilidade são difíceis de ser obtidas em regiões climáticas tropicais e equatoriais. Por esta razão, metodologias tradicionais de cálculo de enlaces, que levam ao uso de altas margens fixas não são as mais indicadas. Lança-se mão de Técnicas de Mitigação de Desvanecimento (Fade Mitigation Techniques, FMT). No projeto e otimização de FMTs, o conhecimento do comportamento dinâmico do canal de radiopropagação é necessário. Objetivando preencher este requisito, são usadas séries temporais de atenuação por chuva nas simulações de sistema. Porém, séries temporais experimentais não estão disponíveis em nível global em todas as frequências e inclinações de enlace desejadas, para que se projete e teste FMTs. Portanto, a alternativa ao uso de séries experimentais é a geração (sintetização) de séries temporais de atenuação por chuva fazendo uso de características climatológicas bem como de parâmetros geométricos e de propagação relativos ao enlace. Neste trabalho, modelos de canal baseados na abordagem original de Maseng e Bakken são testados com dados de beacon em 11,5 GHz (banda Ku), medidos em quatro localidades Brasileiras, representativas de climas tropical, subtropical e equatorial. Ainda, um modelo misto usando cadeias de Markov e um modelo, já existente, gerador de eventos de atenuação por chuva sob demanda é proposto e analisado. Validação é realizada por meio de variáveis de teste propostas pela ITU-R e também pela análise da fidelidade que características específicas dos eventos sintetizados possuem em relação às características de eventos reais medidos. / [en] Rain attenuation time series synthesizers constitute an important resource to the design, test and optimization of Fade Mitigation Techniques (FMTs). In the absence of experimental propagation data for every possible Earth-Space configuration, the synthesis of rain attenuation time series becomes an interesting solution to allow for the reproduction of the long-term dynamic characteristics of rain attenuation. In this thesis, channel models able to synthesize long- and shortterm rain attenuation periods are discussed, tested and validated for the Brazilian tropical and equatorial climates. Critical issues determining the correct behavior of such time series generators are analyzed and their range of validity is presented.

Lagrangian stochastic models are a largely used tool in the study of passive substances dispersion inside the Atmospheric Boundary Layer. Its application is related to the trajectory computation of thousands of particles, that numerically simulate the dispersion of suspense substances in the atmosphere. In this study, the basic concepts related to the Lagrangian stochastic modelling are presented and discussed together with its main characteristics and its computational implementation, to the study of particles dispersion in the atmosphere. In a computational experiment, the obtained results are compared with observational data from the TRACT experiment, that took place in Europe in 1992. The input data needed for the dispersion model are extracted from simulations with the numerical weather forecast model RAMS. Dispersion over Rio de Janeiro region is also tested in a second experiment. / Modelos Lagrangianos estocásticos constituem ferramenta muito utilizada no estudo da dispersão de substâncias passivas na Camada Limite Atmosférica. Sua aplicação consiste em calcular a trajetória de milhares de partículas, que simulam numericamente a dispersão de uma substância em suspensão na atmosfera. Nesta tese, são apresentados e discutidos os conceitos básicos relacionados à Modelagem Lagrangiana Estocástica de Partículas, bem como suas principais características e sua implementação computacional, para o estudo da dispersão de partículas na atmosfera. Numa experimentação computacional, comparam-se os resultados obtidos com dados observacionais provenientes do experimento TRACT, realizado na Europa em 1992. Os dados de entrada necessários ao modelo de dispersão são extraídos de simulações do modelo de previsão numérica do tempo RAMS. A dispersão sobre o Estado do Rio de Janeiro é também testada em um segundo experimento.