Att finna den mest effektiva strategin för att maximera sin avkastning på aktiemarknaden har varit en fråga som har intresserat investerare i hundratals år. Denna studie avser att undersöka vilken av investeringsstrategierna, Gyllene korset eller Buy and hold som är mest lönsam under perioden 2004 - 2022 på Stockholmsbörsen för att dra slutsatser om marknadens effektivitet. Genom att mäta avkastningen av tio aktier från large-cap listan och tio aktier från mid-cap-listan visade studiens resultat att Buy and hold under perioden gav en högre genomsnittlig avkastning relativt Gyllene korset under parametrarna glidande medelvärde 50, 200. Detta ger stöd för den effektiva marknadshypotesen som säger att det inte går att få överavkastning genom teknisk analys. Studien finner dock stöd för att köpsignalen som gavs vid Gyllene korset skapade stora vinster, och att det snarare var en försenad säljsignal, dödskorset, som var huvudanledningen till att Buy and hold var överlägsen Gyllene korset-strategin. / Finding the most effective strategy to maximize returns in the stock market has been a question that has interested investors for hundreds of years. This study aims to see which of the investment strategies, Golden cross or Buy and hold that is most profitable during the period 2004 - 2022 on the Stockholm Stock Exchange to draw conclusions about the efficiency of the market. By measuring the return of ten stocks from the large-cap list and ten stocks from the mid-cap list, the study's results showed that during the period, Buy and hold gave a higher average return than the Golden cross under the parameters moving average 50, 200. This supports the efficient market hypothesis, which states that it is not possible to obtain excess returns through technical analysis. However, the study finds support that the buy signal given at the Golden cross created large returns, and that it was rather a delayed sell signal, the death cross, that was the reason why Buy and hold was superior to the Golden cross strategy.

Sammanfattning Titel: Sambandet mellan kapitalstruktur och börsvärde: En jämförande studie mellan fastighetsbolag och övriga Large Cap-företag på Stockholmsbörsen Författare: Magnus Hofsberger, Albin Seger Handledare: Katarina Eriksson Bakgrund: Sambandet mellan kapitalstruktur och företagsvärde har sedan Modigliani och Miller (1958) publicerade irrelevansteoremet varit ett hett ämne. Än idag finns det dock inget entydigt svar på hur detta samband ser ut. Diskussionen har även på senare tid blivit ytterst aktuell då flera branscher på den svenska marknaden har ökat sin skuldsättning. Bland dessa branscher är det framförallt fastighetsbranschen som drivit på utvecklingen. Tidigare forskning är oenig och studien upplever att det finns ett kunskapsgap kring hur sambandet mellan kapitalstruktur och börsvärde ser ut på den svenska marknaden. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka och analysera hur kapitalstrukturen hos bolag noterade på Large Cap på Stockholmsbörsen påverkar deras börsvärde. Dessutom syftar studien att undersöka eventuella skillnader i detta samband mellan fastighetsbolag och övriga Large Cap-företag. Metod: För att besvara studiens frågeställningar och syfte har studien använt sig av en kvantitativ forskningsmetod med en deduktiv ansats samt en paneldataregression för perioden 2018-2022. Resultat: Studien fann att sambandet mellan kapitalstruktur och börsvärde negativt och statistiskt signifikant. Dummyvariabeln för fastighetsbolag var inte statistiskt signifikant. Studien kan därmed konkludera att fastighetsbranschen inte skilde sig från resterande Large Cap-företag. / Abstract Title: The relationship Between Capital Structure and Market Capitalisation: A comparative study between Real Estate Companies and Other Large Cap Firms on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Authors: Magnus Hofsberger, Albin Seger Supervisor: Katarina Eriksson Background: The relationship between capital structure and market capitalisation has been a hot topic ever since Modigliani and Miller (1958) published the irrelevance-theorem. There is, however, to this day no definite answer on what this relationship looks like. The discussion has become particularly relevant in recent times as several industries in the Swedish market have increased their leverage. Among these industries, it is primarily the real estate sector that has been driving the trend. Previous research has been inconclusive, and the study has identified a knowledge gap regarding the relationship between capital structure and market capitalisation in the Swedish market. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate and analyze how the capital structure of companies listed on the Large Cap segment of the Stockholm Stock Exchange affects their market value. Additionally, the study aims to examine any differences in this relationship between real estate companies and other Large Cap firms. Method: To address the research questions and the purpose of the study, a quantitative research method with a deductive approach in addition to a paneldataregression for the period 2018-2022 was used. Results: The study found that the relationship between capital structure and market capitalisation was negative and statistically significant. The dummy variable for real estate companies was not statistically significant. The study can therefore conclude that the real estate sector did not differ from the remaining Large Cap firms.

Studiens syfte är att analysera förhållandet mellan risk, förväntad avkastning och realiserad avkastning inom industri- och finanssektorerna på Stockholmsbörsen. Vidare avser studien att jämföra sektorerna sinsemellan samt med marknaden överlag. Studien riktar sig till privata investerare som förvaltar sina egna aktieportföljer för att bidra med ökad kunskap gällande investering i aktier. Metoden är kvantitativ och det studerade underlaget utgörs av sekundärdata för historiska priser och avkastningar för utvalda aktier från Nasdaq Stockholms mest handlade index, OMXS30. Studien omfattar data mellan perioden 2018-2022. Innehållet är inspirerat av bland annat Rosdiana (2023) och Meric et al. (2010), flera delar av studien är i enlighet med vederbörande. Två hypoteser formuleras och testas, den första nollhypotesen testar risk i förhållande till avkastning och den andra nollhypotesen testar marknadens avkastning i förhållande till industri- och finanssektorernas. CAPM används för att beräkna aktiernas förväntade prestation över bestämd tidsperiod. Alfa tillämpas sedan för att beräkna eventuella skillnader i aktiernas förväntade avkastning och realiserade avkastning. Enligt studiens resultat gav aktierna inom industrisektorn överlag en högre avkastning än både finanssektorn och marknaden. Däremot förkastas ingen av de två nollhypoteserna. / The purpose of the study is to analyze the relationship between risk, expected return and realized return within the industrial and financial sectors in the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the study intends to compare these sectors with each other and with the market overall. The study targets private investors who manage their own stock portfolios and aims to contribute with increased knowledge regarding stock investments. The method is quantitative, and the practiced data consist of secondary data of historical prices and returns from selected stocks in the most traded index in Nasdaq Stockholm, OMXS30. The study covers data from the period 2018-2022. The study is inspired by Rosdiana (2023) and Meric et al. (2010). Two hypotheses are formulated and tested: the first null hypothesis tests risk relative to return, and the second null hypothesis tests market return relative to the industrial and financial sectors. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is applied to calculate the performance of stocks over a specific time period. Alpha is applied to calculate any differences in the shares expected return and realized return. Overall, stocks in the industrial sector yielded higher returns than both the financial sector and the market, but none of the null hypothesis could be rejected.

Denna studie undersöker sambandet mellan penningpolitiska uttalanden från Sveriges centralbank och börsutvecklingen, med särskilt fokus på annonsering av styrränta och avkastningen för bolag underliggande Stockholmsbörsens storbolagsindex, OMXS30. Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det föreligger abnormala avkastningar i samband med Riksbankens räntebesked, där två forskningsfrågor har formulerats som adresserar den övergripande marknadsreaktionen samt branschspecifika effekter. För att analysera dessa samband har ett antal hypoteser utformats och testats med hjälp av en eventstudie-metod. Denna metod innebar genomförande av statistiska tester baserade på insamlade sekundärdata i form av historiska aktiekurser under två perioder, 2015-2016 respektive 2022-2023. Vidare har studien granskat den effektiva marknadshypotesen, där resultaten indikerade en generell avsaknad av statistiskt signifikanta samband mellan räntebesked och abnormala avkastningar vilket stödjer teorin om en effektiv marknad. Samtidigt identifierades ett antal sektorsspecifika mönster, där industrisektorn visade viss känslighet för räntesänkningar medan finanssektorn uppvisade ett antal observationer med abnormala avkastningar i samband med räntehöjningar. Sammanfattningsvis finner studien begränsad evidens för ett direkt samband mellan Riksbankens räntebesked och aktieavkastningar inom OMXS30, vilket antyder att marknaden effektivt inkorporerar denna information i aktiekurserna. Slutligen föreslås några rekommendationer för framtida forskning för att vidare undersöka dessa dynamiker och deras konsekvenser för investerare. Dessa innefattar bland annat användningen av ett bredare urval av branscher och företag, samt inkludera en multivariatanalys samt en sentimentanalys. / This study examines the relationship between monetary policy statements from the Swedish central bank and stock market performance, with a particular focus on the policy rate announcements and the returns of companies comprising the OMXS30 index. The purpose of the study is to investigate if abnormal returns occur around Riksbank's interest rate decisions, where two research questions were formulated addressing the overall market reaction and industry-specific effects. To analyze these relationships, a number of hypotheses have been developed and tested using an event study method. This method involved conducting statistical tests based on collected secondary data in the form of historical stock prices over two periods, 2015-2016 and 2022-2023. Furthermore, the study examined the Efficient Market Hypothesis, where the results indicated a general lack of statistically significant relationships between interest rate announcements and abnormal returns, supporting the theory of an efficient market. However, sector-specific patterns were identified, with the industrial sector showing some sensitivity to interest rate cuts while the financial sector showed a number of observations with abnormal returns associated with interest rate hikes. In summary, the study finds limited evidence for a direct relationship between the Riksbank's interest rate announcements and stock returns within OMXS30, suggesting that the market effectively incorporates this information into stock prices. To conclude, some recommendations for future research are proposed to further explore these dynamics and their implications for investors. These include using a broader selection of industries and companies, as well as incorporating multivariate analysis and sentiment analysis.

Denna studie visar utbetalningspolitiken hos företag noterade på Stockholmsbörsen år 2000-2015. Svensk utbetalningspolitik skiljer sig från utbetalningspolitiken i USA och inom EU. I Sverige fick återköp som utbetalningsform stor genomslagskraft år 2000 men trots detta är utdelningar fortsatt den dominerande utbetalningsformen idag. Vid en uppdelning i finansiella och industriella företag blir det tydligt att finansiella företag fått en allt mer betydelsefull roll inom svensk utbetalningspolitik. En ökad koncentration av det kassaflöde samtliga företag fördelar till aktieägare tycks inte kunna urskiljas på den svenska marknaden. Skiljer man på finansiella och industriella företag går det att se en ökad koncentration av det kassaflöde som fördelas av finansiella företag. År 2015 finns en stor andel mogna företag på Stockholmsbörsen vilket förklarar att total utbetalning av företag har ökat sedan 2000. Det framkommer genom att studera företagens kapitalstruktur och fas i den ekonomiska livscykeln. / This paper depicts payout policies of companies listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange (SSE) 2000-2015. Payout policy in Sweden differs significantly from policy in the U.S. and the rest of the EU. In Sweden open market stock repurchases (OMR) came to be the dominant method of payout back in 2000. However, since then dividends have taken over the scene. Comparing financial and industrial corporations, makes it evident that financial corporations have come to gain prominence when it comes to shaping payout policy. It is not possible to entail an increasing concentration of cash flow that companies distribute to shareholders, when investigating the entire Swedish stock market. Dividing between the two sectors proves a heightened concentration of payouts among financial corporations. In 2015 mature companies have come to gain a greater share of SSE, which explains the increased number of dividend paying corporations since 2000. This becomes evident when examining the capital structure of the companies and their phase in the economic lifecycle.

Sammanfattning En omvänd aktiesplit ska inte ha någon direkt påverkan på ett företags värdering. Värdet är detsamma oavsett om företaget har fem utestående aktier á tjugo kronor eller en aktie á hundra kronor. Det är endast aktiepriset och antalet aktier som förändras. Dock kan informationen och genomförandet av en omvänd aktiesplit resultera i onormala reaktioner från investerare som får konsekvenser på aktiekursen, trots att själva händelsen är av en kosmetisk karaktär och kan definieras som icke-ekonomisk. Vilka effekter har då en omvänd aktiesplit på aktiekursen? Hur tolkar marknaden denna information? Och vilka motiv har företag till att genomföra en omvänd aktiesplit? Studien undersöker totalt 108 omvända aktiesplitar som genomförts på Stockholmsbörsen och First North Stockholm, under åren 2005 till 2018. Undersökningen sker genom en eventstudie och avvikande avkastning studeras på kort och lång sikt. Tidigare studier undersöker huvudsakligen två faser, annonsering samt genomförande. I denna studie undersöks fyra faser då företag presenterar information angående omvänd aktiesplit. Förslags-, besluts-, pressmeddelande- samt genomförandefasen. Anledningen till detta är för att kunna studera i vilken fas den kraftigaste marknadsreaktionen sker. Avvikande avkastning studeras baserat på splitfaktor. Utöver detta studeras även likviditet och risk både innan och efter genomförandet. De centrala teorierna som behandlas är prisintervall, effektiva marknadshypotesen och signalteori. Tidigare studier har visat att en omvänd aktiesplit generellt sätt resulterar i en negativ kursreaktion och medför en negativ avvikande avkastning. I denna undersökning finner vi likvärdiga resultat där den kraftigaste reaktionen sker vid genomförandet. Vi finner även en generell negativ avkastning under annonseringsfaserna, intressant är dock att den minsta reaktionen inträffar då den första informationen delges marknaden. En högre splitfaktor tenderar även att resultera i en mer negativ avvikande avkastning. På lite längre sikt tenderar aktiekursutvecklingen överlag att vara negativ. Undersökningens resultat visar även att både likviditet och volatilitet stiger efter genomförandet av en omvänd aktiesplit. Detta är inte helt i linje med tidigare studier då de generellt uppvisar en ökad likviditet men en minskad volatilitet. / Abstract A reverse stock split should not have any direct effect on a company’s valuation since the total value is the same whether the company has five stocks for twenty SEK each, or one stock for a hundred SEK. However, a reverse stock split tend to result in abnormal market reactions. This study investigates the effects on the stock price surrounding a reverse stock split and in the long run. The markets which are investigated are Stockholm Stock Exchange and First North Stockholm, during the period 2005 to 2018. Furthermore, the study examines whether abnormal returns exists around the announcement days and the ex-day, and if there is a connection between abnormal returns and split ratios. Liquidity and volatility changes due to the reverse stock split are also examined. The results show negative abnormal returns on the ex-day and the following days. On the announcement days there is also a general negative abnormal return, though not as substantial as during the ex-day period. A higher split ratio also tend to result in a more negative abnormal return. The study also finds that the liquidity and the volatility of the stock increases, following a reverse stock split. In the long run there is an overall negative Buy and Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR).

This volume is a collection of three essays relating to the pricing of securities in financial markets, such as stock markets, where a large number of individual securities are traded. Lead-Lag Effects in a Competitive REE MarketThis essay introduces a model of cross-security information aggregation. The model is essentially an extension of Chan (Journal of Finance, 1993) to the case of simultaneous auction markets where revealed information is correlated across securities.The model provides clear predictions of lead-lag effects between securities returns. Several of the model's predictions are confirmed empirically using data from the Paris Bourse. Other models of price formation, including the basic Chan model and nonsynchronous trading, are rejected as they cannot account for observed return patterns. Learning the True Index LevelThis essay extends the model of cross-security information aggregation by deriving implications for autocorrelation in index returns. Both time series and cross-sectional predictions are confirmed by empirical evidence from the Paris Bourse. In addition, the time series predictions are consistent with earlier, partly unexplained, empirical evidence from the US market. An Empirical Study of Index Return AutocorrelationThis essay studies return autocorrelation on the Stockholm Stock Exchange focusing on the relation between index returns and indvidual stock returns. It is demonstrated that the two return types have similar time series properties, and it is concluded that the causes of autocorrelation are the same in both cases. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 1997</p>

Problem: Interim and annual reports are some of the most crucial sources of information regarding companies’ performances. Interested parties such as analysts and investors assess this information and compare it with expectations. Analysts’ expectations of companies’ interim reports are of great importance when analysing the future development of share movement. Possible deviations between analysts’ expectations and actual presented results from the individual companies might change the perceptions of specific future stock prices. Furthermore business sectors have different characteristics and might respond differently to unexpected earnings news. Over- and underperformance of the presented results in relation to analysts’ expectations could create specific stock price movements over a forthcoming period depending on the nature of the report. The authors label this phenomenon as persistent trends. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis was to establish whether persistency and trends could be observed in the future development of companies’ stock prices with regard to analysts’ expectations and the true result presented by the companies. Method: With a quantitative approach the authors conducted an event study aiming to fulfill the purpose of this thesis. The study consisted of all fourth quarter reports presented 2001 throughout 2004 by the companies presently listed on the Most traded section of the Stockholm stock exchange A-list. The authors defined the nature of the studied reports as positive or negative depending on whether the pre-tax earning exceeded or were lower than the analysts’ expectations. Furthermore the authors constructed a mathematical formula which distinguished if the possible deviation of actual results compared to expectations was significant. The share price performance for two months subsequent to the earnings announcement was recorded and compared with the OMXS30 development for the equivalent time, thereby the authors gathered empirical evidence to fulfill the purpose. Furthermore the data was also divided into business subcategories to provide answers to whether there was uniform response to unexpected earnings information among business sectors. Results: The authors presented empirically founded evidence for the existence of persistent trends following the presentation of both positive and negative reports. The authors also rejected the presence of a uniform response to deviating earnings information in the business sectors.

<p>Background:</p><p>Recent business paper articles observe that stocks soar when there is a change in ownership. The clothing company JC climbed 26% when it was announced Torsten Jansson had increased his holdings. Daydream, a computer game developer, followed this trend increasing its market value by 17% on the news that TA Capital had increased its hold-ings. In these examples, the market learned of the changes in ownership through a press release created by the acquiring entity. These pieces of news, also known as ownership disclosures, is the target of this thesis.</p><p>Purpose:</p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether ownership disclosures result in abnormal stock price changes. Furthermore, the aim is to find out if there are any differ-ences in returns depending on who announced the ownership disclosure. In order to fulfil this purpose, a quantitative approach was used.</p><p>Method:</p><p>A random sample of 160 ownership disclosures is gathered. 77 of these are classified as passive- and 83 as active investors. For each of these pieces of news, 183 days of historical stock price data is retrieved. This data is then parsed through the market model event-study framework.</p><p>Findings:</p><p>Graphically analyzing the whole sample indicates that the market is not efficient in its strong form. The same is true when dividing the sample into passive- and active investors. Statistically, an abnormal return is confirmed for the active investors, but not for the whole sample or the passive investors.</p><p>Conclusion:</p><p>By looking at the price change effects of ownership disclosures, the Stockholm Stock Exchange O-list is determined to be efficient at the semi-strong level. The anomaly caused by active investors leads to the possibility of making a profit of 2.70% between day -1 and day +1 relative to the day of the ownership disclosure being sent out. It should be noted, though, that transaction costs and taxes are not taken into consideration.</p>

<p>Problem: Interim and annual reports are some of the most crucial sources of information regarding companies’ performances. Interested parties such as analysts and investors assess this information and compare it with expectations. Analysts’ expectations of companies’ interim reports are of great importance when analysing the future development of share movement. Possible deviations between analysts’ expectations and actual presented results from the individual companies might change the perceptions of specific future stock prices. Furthermore business sectors have different characteristics and might respond differently to unexpected earnings news. Over- and underperformance of the presented results in relation to analysts’ expectations could create specific stock price movements over a forthcoming period depending on the nature of the report. The authors label this phenomenon as persistent trends.</p><p>Purpose: The purpose of this thesis was to establish whether persistency and trends could be observed in the future development of companies’ stock prices with regard to analysts’ expectations and the true result presented by the companies.</p><p>Method: With a quantitative approach the authors conducted an event study aiming to fulfill the purpose of this thesis. The study consisted of all fourth quarter reports presented 2001 throughout 2004 by the companies presently listed on the Most traded section of the Stockholm stock exchange A-list. The authors defined the nature of the studied reports as positive or negative depending on whether the pre-tax earning exceeded or were lower than the analysts’ expectations. Furthermore the authors constructed a mathematical formula which distinguished if the possible deviation of actual results compared to expectations was significant. The share price performance for two months subsequent to the earnings announcement was recorded and compared with the OMXS30 development for the equivalent time, thereby the authors gathered empirical evidence to fulfill the purpose. Furthermore the data was also divided into business subcategories to provide answers to whether there was uniform response to unexpected earnings information among business sectors.</p><p>Results: The authors presented empirically founded evidence for the existence of persistent trends following the presentation of both positive and negative reports. The authors also rejected the presence of a uniform response to deviating earnings information in the business sectors.</p>