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Telecom's Services Innovation in CHT and Indosat陳柔延, Chandra Tjin, Eriny Unknown Date (has links)
Abstract
The impact of technology has been rapidly changing the economy and environment in these past two decades. Both manufacturing and service companies which intend to maintain the viability of their organizations have to adapt in such an environment.
For a long time, services have been perceived as being technologically backward and to take little initiative with respect to innovate. In general services were presumed to be laggards in adopting new technology, and to be largely passive adopter of major innovations; however, it was recognized that there are some exceptionally dynamic services – such as telecommunications.
Service sector firms play important roles in innovation, not the least in the creative use and diffusion of technologies; but also serve as important sources and agents for the transfer of technological and organizational knowledge to all sectors.
In innovation, knowledge plays a big role in gaining competitive advantage. There is a more fundamental need to understand how organizations create new knowledge in order to produce new products or services. Hence, the need – organizational knowledge – is growing in this turbulent economy of accelerated technological change.
To create knowledge in an organization usually lies in an individual’s knowledge. This is called as tacit knowledge and is a significant point to innovate. Nonaka and Takeuchi (1995) had pointed out that an individual knowledge gets articulated and amplified into and throughout the organization. Moreover, there is a one way to bring about continuous innovation is to look outside and into the future, anticipating changes in the market, technology, competition, or product.
The service sectors have been innovating gradually in Indonesia and Taiwan, particular in telecommunications after liberalized. In 2002, the Indonesia’s economy grew 3.66 percent from the previous year which the highest growth occurring in the transportation and communication sectors by 7.83 percent. In addition, the telecoms sector in Taiwan will contribute 63.1 billion new Taiwan dollars (1.9 billion US dollars) to Taiwan’s GDP annually over the next five years when the telecommunication market is fully liberalized.
In this study will discuss about the innovation of cellular telecommunication services in Indonesia and Taiwan. By analyzing the service innovation process in MMS and Video Streaming from Indosat and Chunghwa, to figure out:
1. Where the new innovation concept comes from;
2. How they define theirs customer interface; and
3. How they develop theirs employees’ skills to deliver service.
We also examine the linking between the company background and innovation. This could be their establishment time, objectives, macro economy point of view, and so on. It might be crucial points to encourage them to innovate.
Key Words: service innovation, telecommunications service, innovation process / The impact of technology has been rapidly changing the economy and environment in these past two decades. Both manufacturing and service companies which intend to maintain the viability of their organizations have to adapt in such an environment.
For a long time, services have been perceived as being technologically backward and to take little initiative with respect to innovate. In general services were presumed to be laggards in adopting new technology, and to be largely passive adopter of major innovations; however, it was recognized that there are some exceptionally dynamic services – such as telecommunications.
Service sector firms play important roles in innovation, not the least in the creative use and diffusion of technologies; but also serve as important sources and agents for the transfer of technological and organizational knowledge to all sectors.
In innovation, knowledge plays a big role in gaining competitive advantage. There is a more fundamental need to understand how organizations create new knowledge in order to produce new products or services. Hence, the need – organizational knowledge – is growing in this turbulent economy of accelerated technological change.
To create knowledge in an organization usually lies in an individual’s knowledge. This is called as tacit knowledge and is a significant point to innovate. Nonaka and Takeuchi (1995) had pointed out that an individual knowledge gets articulated and amplified into and throughout the organization. Moreover, there is a one way to bring about continuous innovation is to look outside and into the future, anticipating changes in the market, technology, competition, or product.
The service sectors have been innovating gradually in Indonesia and Taiwan, particular in telecommunications after liberalized. In 2002, the Indonesia’s economy grew 3.66 percent from the previous year which the highest growth occurring in the transportation and communication sectors by 7.83 percent. In addition, the telecoms sector in Taiwan will contribute 63.1 billion new Taiwan dollars (1.9 billion US dollars) to Taiwan’s GDP annually over the next five years when the telecommunication market is fully liberalized.
In this study will discuss about the innovation of cellular telecommunication services in Indonesia and Taiwan. By analyzing the service innovation process in MMS and Video Streaming from Indosat and Chunghwa, to figure out:
1. Where the new innovation concept comes from;
2. How they define theirs customer interface; and
3. How they develop theirs employees’ skills to deliver service.
We also examine the linking between the company background and innovation. This could be their establishment time, objectives, macro economy point of view, and so on. It might be crucial points to encourage them to innovate.
Key Words: service innovation, telecommunications service, innovation process
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[en] EFFICIENT QUANTIZATION OF THE FILTER PARAMETERS IN USELP CORDES / [pt] QUANTIZAÇÃO EFICIENTE DOS PARÂMETROS DO FILTRO EM CODIFICADORES VSELPSONIA LORENA QUEIROZ DALL AGNOL 22 August 2006 (has links)
[pt] A quantização eficiente dos coeficientes do filtro de
síntese utilizado em codificadores de voz CELP (Code
Excited Linear Prediction) é fundamental para o bom
desempenho desta classe de codificadores, especialmente
quando se considera a operação em taxas inferiores a 8
Kbps. Neste trabalho são examinados três quantizadores
vetoriais distintos que apresentam bom potencial para
utilização em codificadores que operem a baixas taxas de
bits. Cada um desses quantizadores foi implementado dentro
da estrutura do codificador VSELP (Vector Sum Excited
Linear Prediction) uma variação importante do codificador
CELP padronizada para uso na telefonia celular digital
americana. Estas três técnicas de quantização vetorial dos
coeficientes do filtro baseiam-se na representação LSP e
são comparadas em termos da robustez aos erros no canal de
transmissão, da complexidade computacional de
implementação e, principalmente, da qualidade da voz
sintetizada (avaliada em função de medidas objetivas de
razão sinal ruído ponderada e de testes de escuta
informais). Também é examinada a aplicação da técnica de
Simulated Annealing para associação de índices aos níveis
de saída dos quantizadores, visando diminuir a sua
sensibilidade aos erros no canal de transmissão. / [en] Efficent quantization of synthesis filter coefficients on
CELP (Code Excited Linear Prediction) coders is very
important for a good performance of this class of coders,
specially when operating below 8 Kbps. Three vector
quantizers with good potential for utilization on low rate
coders are studied. Each of them was implemented inside
the structure of VSELP( Vector Sum Linear Prediction)
coder, an important menber in the class of CELP coders:
VSELP is the north American cellular
Communication standard. These three vector quantizers work
with LSP parameters and are compared considering the
robustness to channel errors, complexity and quality of
sythesized speech. The quality of synthesized speech is
evaluated considering objective measures of frequency
weighted signal to noise ratio and subjective results
obtained from informal listening tests. In order to
improve the robustness to channel errors, the problem of
binary indices assignment to the output levels of the
quantizer is also investigated. The technique used to
determine good indices assignments is Simulated Annealing
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[en] DATA MINING APPLIED TO CUSTOMER RETENTION IN WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATIONS / [pt] MINERAÇÃO DE DADOS NA RETENÇÃO DE CLIENTES EM TELEFONIA CELULARJORGE BRANTES FERREIRA 16 September 2005 (has links)
[pt] O objetivo desta dissertação é propor um sistema de
mineração de dados
completo para a solução de problemas de retenção de
clientes, presentes nas
mais variadas indústrias. Tal solução reside na correta
identificação, em meio a
gigantescas bases de dados, dos clientes cujos perfis e
históricos de
comportamento denotam que sua saída da empresa é iminente.
Agindo então
sobre a inteligência gerada a partir desta classificação de
clientes, incentivos e
ações de retenção devem ser postos em prática para evitar
e/ou minimizar a
perda para algum concorrente de clientes valiosos. Ao longo
do processo de
mineração de dados, deu-se atenção ao processo de
preparação e
representação dos dados e métodos de seleção de variáveis,
na tentativa de
melhorar e otimizar o desempenho dos modelos a serem
estudados. Vários
modelos diferentes foram testados, otimizados e comparados
na tarefa de
classificação de clientes como aqueles que permanecerão na
empresa ou
aqueles que apresentam riscos de abandono. Entre os modelos
estudados
estão: redes neurais, sistemas neuro-fuzzy hierárquicos,
algoritmos genéticos,
árvores de decisão e máquinas de vetor de suporte. Em
particular, avaliou-se a
questão do abandono de clientes (churn) na indústria de
telecomunicações
móvel brasileira, devido à disponibilidade de dados reais
para a análise. Foi feito
um estudo abrangente do problema do churn, identificando
suas causas,
conseqüências e detalhes. Conclui-se com uma análise do
impacto da
implementação da metodologia proposta em ações de retenção
de clientes, sob
o prisma da lucratividade ou corte de despesas em que tal
utilização implicaria. / [en] The goal of this work is to propose a complete data mining
system for the
solution of customer retention problems, commonly found in
many industries.
Such a solution encompasses the accurate identification
among huge amounts of
data of those consumers who would most likely end their
relationship with the
firm, based on their historical behavior and individual
profile. Acting upon the
intelligence provided by a precise customer classification,
incentives and
retention actions should be put into practice to prevent or
minimize the losses of
valuable clients to competitors. Throughout the data mining
process designed
here, great care was given to the preparation and
representation of the data and
to input selection methods, in an effort to optimize the
performance of the
classification models. Various different classification
techniques have been
tested, with the objective of finding the one best suited
for the task at hand: to
pinpoint those customers who present clear risks of
abandoning the analyzed
company. Among the studied models were neural networks,
decision trees,
genetic algorithms, neuro-fuzzy systems and SVMs (Support
Vector Machines).
As a case study, the issue of churn (loss of customer to
a competitor) in the
Brazilian wireless telecommunications was tackled, due to
the availability of data.
A detailed study was made, identifying the causes,
consequences and details of
the business problem. As a conclusion, the great impact of
the implementation of
the proposed system in retention strategies of wireless
carriers is evaluated,
under the view of the profitability that would be generated
by its use.
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[en] THE DIFFUSION OF MOBILE TELEPHONY IN BRASIL: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION / [pt] A DIFUSÃO DA TELEFONIA CELULAR NO BRASIL: UMA INVESTIGAÇÃO EMPÍRICAGUILHERME GOULART PACHECO 18 March 2005 (has links)
[pt] Desde seu surgimento no Brasil, em 1990, os celulares
apresentaram
notável rapidez em sua expansão, superando os telefones
fixos em 2003 e
chegando a 54 milhões de linhas em meados de 2004. Esta
dissertação analisa o
processo de difusão da telefonia celular no Brasil e tem
como objetivos (a)
compreender como se deu este processo e (b) encontrar
fatores econômicos,
tecnológicos e decisões de negócio que possam tê- lo
influenciado. O processo de
difusão é baseado na teoria epidêmica de difusão de
inovações e são revisados e
discutidos os modelos de difusão de inovações mais
utilizados na literatura. A
análise dos dados se dá por meio de técnicas de regressão
não lineares e lineares.
Os resultados da pesquisa mostram que o processo de
difusão dos celulares no
Brasil pode ser adequadamente representado por um modelo
epidêmico de difusão
de inovações que indica que o crescimento está próximo de
seu ponto de inflexão,
onde inicia a desaceleração a caminho da maturidade.
Finalmente, a pesquisa
evidencia que a competição, os investimentos em marketing,
as tarifas e a
inovação foram os fatores que aceleraram a velocidade o
processo de difusão da
telefonia celular no Brasil. / [en] Since its appearance in Brasil, in 1990, the mobile phones
showed a
remarkably fast expansion, exceeding the number of fixed
phones in 2003 and
reaching 54 million of active subscribers in the middle of
2004. This dissertation
analyses the process of diffusion of mobile telephony in
Brasil and its objectives
are (a) to understand how this process happened and (b) to
find economic,
technology or business decisions that may have influenced
it. The diffusion
process is based in epidemic theory of diffusion of
innovations and this study
analyses and discusses the most popular models of
diffusion of innovations found
in the literature. The data is analyzed by nonlinear and
linear regression and the
results of the research show that the process of diffusion
of mobile phones in
Brazil can be fitted in an epidemic innovation diffusion
model which indicates
that the growth is close to its inflexion point, where it
began to slow down
towards maturity. Finally, the research shows that
competition, marketing
expenses, tariffs and innovation were the factors that
accelerated the speed of the
diffusion of mobile telephony in Brasil.
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[en] JOINT POWER CONTROL AND CHANNEL ALOCATIN IN CELLULAR WIRELESS SYSTEMS / [pt] APLICAÇÃO CONJUNTA DE CONTROLE DE POTÊNCIA E ALOCAÇÃO DINÂMICA DE CANAIS A SISTEMAS MÓVEIS CELULARESGUILHERME ZENKNER PERCIA 05 July 2006 (has links)
[pt] Este trabalho investiga o comportamento de três métodos de
alocação de canais para Sistemas Móveis Celulares quando
associados a três algoritmos de controle de potência
distribuídos. Os objetivos desta associação são uma maior
capacidade comparada à obtida com a aplicação isolada de
alocação de canais, e uma melhor distribuição da Razão Sina-
Interferência, através do uso otimizado da potência de
transmissão. Resultados de simulações mostram que estes
dois objetivos podem ser atingidos, mas com alguns custos. / [en] This work investigates the behavior if three channel
allocation schemes for Mobile Cellular Systems, when
associated to three different automatic uplink power
control schemes. The two objectives sought with this
association are improved capacity over the isoladed use of
the allocation schemes, and a better distribuition of the
Signal to Interference Ratio (SRI) due to an optimized use
of transmission power. Simulation results show that indeed
this can be achieved, but not without some costs.
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[en] THE REPLACEMENT OF THE MOBILE OPERATORS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN THE BRAZILIAN AND GERMAN MARKETS / [pt] A TROCA DE OPERADORA DE TELEFONIA CELULAR: UM ESTUDO COMPARATIVO ENTRE OS MERCADOS BRASILEIRO E ALEMÃORODRIGO CIARAVOLO MARTINS 09 February 2010 (has links)
[pt] Com mais de 150 milhões de celulares em operação e uma penetração de
aproximadamente 80 linhas móveis para cada 100 habitantes, o mercado brasileiro
de telefonia móvel está entrando na maturidade, onde a média é de 100 aparelhos
para cada 100 habitantes. Seguindo a tendência destes mercados, o processo de
implantação da portabilidade numérica foi concluído em Março de 2009 e tem
como metas principais reduzir barreiras de mudança, aumentar a competição no
setor e estimular migrações entre operadoras. O objetivo desse trabalho é
identificar os fatores que influenciam a formação da intenção de troca dos
consumidores e, a partir de um modelo, comparar o mercado brasileiro ao alemão,
considerado maduro. Para o estudo, uma amostra de 202 usuários foi coletada no
mercado brasileiro e 200 no mercado alemão. Utilizando modelagem por
equações estruturais, foi possível identificar que, em ambos os mercados a
satisfação do consumidor é um antecedente com forte influência sobre o processo
de formação de intenção de troca. Além disso, os resultados sugerem existir maior
peso da percepção da qualidade do serviço na formação da satisfação no mercado
brasileiro. Já no mercado alemão, a maior influência parece vir da percepção do
valor pago pelo serviço. Os resultados dos testes de hipótese apontam maior
percepção de qualidade e valor dos serviços pelos consumidores alemães,
enquanto que no Brasil, os usuários ainda percebem maiores barreiras de
mudança. O estudo pretende contribuir para o entendimento das relações
existentes entre os construtos estudados e oferecer sugestões que possam auxiliar
no desenvolvimento de estratégias pelos participantes do mercado. / [en] With more than 150 million mobile phones under operation and a
penetration rate close to 80 lines per 100 inhabitants, the Brazilian mobile market
is entering in the maturity, where the average rate is equal to 100 lines per 100
inhabitants. Following the trend of these markets, the introduction of the mobile
number portability has been concluded in March 2009 and has as main objectives
to reduce the switching barriers, increase the level of competition and encourage
the switching process among the operators. The purpose of this study is to identify
the elements which influence the switching intention and, based on a model,
compare the Brazilian mobile market to the German one, considered already
mature. For the study, a sample of 202 users was collected in the Brazilian market
and 200 in the German one. Applying the Structural Equation Model (SEM), it
was possible to identify, in both markets, that the customer satisfaction is a strong
antecedent, with great influence in the switching intention. Moreover, the data
analysis indicates that in the Brazilian market the service quality has a higher
influence than in the German one. For the German users, the perceived price
appear to be more important. The results from the hypotheses tests indicate that
the perception of the service quality and the perceived price is higher in the
German market, while the Brazilian customers still feel high switching barriers.
The findings intent to contribute for the academic knowledge due to the
investigation of the relationships among the constructs analyzed, and to suggest
insights that can help the market players in the development of market strategies.
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[en] LOYALTY POSSIBILITIES IN THE MOBILE SERVICE / [pt] POSSIBILIDADES DE FIDELIZAÇÃO NO SERVIÇO DE TELEFONIA CELULARRODRIGO CAVALIERI DE SOUZA 02 July 2004 (has links)
[pt] Este estudo identifica os atributos capazes de promover a
fidelização de Clientes à operadoras de telefonia celular,
com o objetivo de subsidiar profissionais do setor de
telecomunicações no desenvolvimento de ofertas para seus
atuais e futuros Clientes. Através da teoria da análise
conjunta busca-se identificar conjuntos de atributos
desejáveis e relevantes para a escolha de uma operadora de
telefonia celular. A escolha dos atributos e níveis
resultou de uma pesquisa qualitativa (entrevistas
informais) com executivos de operadoras de telefonia
celular e com cerca de 10 usuários. Em seguida, foi
escolhido manualmente, a composição de estímulos (cartões)
a serem aplicados aos entrevistados. Realizou-se, então, a
coleta de dados por meio de questionários, os quais foram
entregues pessoalmente aos entrevistados. Na última etapa,
após a análise dos atributos e utilidades dos níveis
propostos na pesquisa de campo, verificou-se que os
atributos, design do aparelho, Qualidade de cobertura e
Custo mensal apresentaram percepção e importância relativa
elevada frente aos entrevistados. Propiciando que o
objetivo geral de se identificarem as características
relevantes para a escolha e fidelização de uma operadora de
telefonia celular fosse alcançado. / [en] This research identifies the atributes to promote customer
loyalty for mobile operators, in order to help them in
retain its actual and future customers. It accomplishes its
goal through the conjoint analysis theory. The attributes
and levels choice resulted from interviews made with
mobile operators executives and mobile users. The conjoint
stimuli were defined following the basic principle of
fractional factorial design. The partial utilities of the
attributes levels show that equipment design, coverage
quality and monthly cost presented a high perception and
relative importance, which in turn, are recommended for
customer loyalty.
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[en] A STUDY ON THE USE OF THE CELLULAR TELEPHONY IN THE LOW INCOME CLASSES / [pt] UM ESTUDO SOBRE O USO DA TELEFONIA CELULAR NAS CLASSES DE BAIXA RENDACARLOS EDUARDO AZEN ALVES 27 October 2006 (has links)
[pt] A telefonia celular no Brasil representa um segmento de
notável sucesso
comercial nos últimos anos, apresentando um crescimento
muito rápido e uma
penetração que superou em muito as melhores expectativas
das próprias
operadoras. Parte importante deste sucesso é devido à
adoção da telefonia celular
pelas camadas de menor renda da população. Considerando
este contexto, esta
pesquisa tem como objetivo estudar os impactos da
telefonia celular para este
segmento, levantando as motivações para uso do serviço, os
impactos no dia-a-dia
dos usuários e o processo de aprendizado e uso dos
serviços disponíveis. A
pesquisa foi feita por intermédio de entrevistas em
profundidade com usuários de
baixa renda familiar per capita. Como resultado, notamos
que a telefonia celular
contribuiu para uma melhoria na qualidade de vida, pelas
oportunidades de
relacionamento social e inserção no mercado de trabalho.
Por outro lado, nota-se
uma oportunidade em potencializar o uso do telefone
celular entre os usuários de
baixa renda, simplificando seu uso e divulgando as
vantagens dos serviços
disponíveis. / [en] During the last years, mobile telecommunication has been a
segment with
remarkable commercial success in Brazil, presenting a fast
user base growth and a
market penetration that exceeded the best expectations
from the own operators. A
significant part of this success is due to the adoption of
cell phone by lower
income users. Considering this context, this research aims
to study the impacts of
mobile telecommunication for this specific segment, by
depicting the motivations
for its usage, the impacts on user´s daily life and how
they learned and use
available services. Based on extensive interviews with
lower median family
income users, the research indicates that the cell phone
can help improve life
quality, through social integration and greater work
opportunities. On the other
hand, we can note an opportunity to improve cell phone
usage among lower
income users, by simplifying and divulgating the benefits
of existing services.
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Collaborative Construction of Telecommunications Services. An Enterprise Architecture and Model Driven Engineering MethodCHIPRIANOV, Vanea 16 January 2012 (has links) (PDF)
In the context of world economies transitioning to services, telecommunications services are the primary means of communication between different economic entities and are therefore essential. The focus on the end consumer, the convergence with the Internet, the separation between the software and the hardware implementing a service, and the telecommunications market deregulation have led to a revolution and a new era in the telecommunications industry. To meet these challenges, former national telecommunications providers have to reduce the construction time, from months to days, while affecting non-negatively other parameters (e.g., cost, quality of service, quality of experience) of new telecommunications services. To tackle this broad theme, we propose a telecommunications service construction process, the software tools that are to be used in this process and a tool building process to build them. The telecommunications service construction process reflects current practices in the telecommunications industry. As such, it should be (easily) accepted by practitioners. The software tools (i.e., Domain Specific Modeling Languages designed as profiles of an Enterprise Architecture Modeling Language, graphical editors, code generators, Off the Shelf network simulators, a collaboration Design Rationale Domain Specific Modeling Language) help telecommunications providers face the challenges. The tool building process relies on models and provides a high automation degree, hence software tools can be build more rapidly. We illustrate the telecommunications service construction process and the tools using a multimedia conferencing service. Our proposals contribute to reducing the construction time of new telecommunications services, while providing the possibility of improved quality of service and increased involvement of the consumer. Faster provisioning of new telecommunications services, that better answer the consumers¿ needs, will increase the rate of development of new economic services in general, and will ultimately have a positive impact on world economic development.
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[en] THREE ESSAYS ON ASSET PRICING APPLYING REAL OPTIONS METHODOLOGY / [pt] TRÊS ENSAIOS SOBRE A METODOLOGIA DE APREÇAMENTO DE ATIVOS UTILIZANDO OPÇÕES REAISKATIA MARIA CARLOS ROCHA 18 May 2007 (has links)
[pt] A dissertação apresenta três ensaios econômicos onde a
abordagem de
opções reais faz-se mister seja na definição de políticas
regulatórias, estratégias de
investimentos ou apreçamento de risco soberano. O primeiro
ensaio, toma como
premissa a nova regulação orientada a custos da
interconexão de redes de
telecomunicações e propõe ajustes no cálculo da
remuneração de capital da telefonia
fixa local. O modelo proposto estabelece o mark-up sobre o
custo médio ponderado
do capital (WACC) a ser aplicado nos novos contratos de
concessão, levando-se em
conta a opção de acesso disponibilizada pela operadora de
STFC aos entrantes. O
ensaio inova ao incorporar ao modelo de opções o impacto
de mudanças de
paradigmas tecnológicos que ocasionam saltos negativos na
demanda da
concessionária. Os resultados apontam para robustez do
mark-up em relação a
alterações nos parâmetros básicos do modelo (tráfego fixo-
fixo, fixo-móvel e choques
negativos de demanda), e apontam para um mark-up inferior
a 1%. O segundo
ensaio analisa estratégias de investimentos em
incorporação imobiliária, setor que
envolve baixa liquidez, lento payback, e apresenta
diversas incertezas econômicas
relacionadas à demanda de mercado, preço por metro
quadrado e custo do terreno.
O ensaio analisa estratégias de lançamentos simultâneos e
seqüenciais de
empreendimentos imobiliários; o primeiro envolvendo um
menor custo de construção,
associado, porém, a uma maior incerteza nos resultados. O
lançamento seqüencial
apresenta características semelhantes a opções reais por
embutir uma série de
oportunidades quanto à aquisição de informações, adiamento
e abandono do projeto.
Apresenta-se o estudo de caso de uma incorporação na
cidade do Rio de Janeiro,
identificando-se a estratégia ótima bem como o preço
máximo a ser pago pelo
terreno. O lançamento seqüencial agrega valor adicional de
10% ao projeto além de
diminuir a exposição ao risco do incorporador em mais de
metade se comparado à
metodologia tradicional de fluxo de caixa descontado.
Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio
recai sobre risco soberano e propõe um modelo estrutural a
partir da teoria de opções
e ativos contingentes para analisar a estrutura a termo de
quatro países emergentes
(Brasil, México, Rússia e Turquia) que representaram, em
média, 54 % do índice
EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000-2005. A taxa de
câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples,
é considerada como indicativa de default. O
modelo calibrado indica que no período, o mercado
sistematicamente sub-apreçou os
títulos do Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto
para México, Rússia e
Turquia apreçou corretamente os spreads soberanos. O
ensaio fornece ainda a
probabilidade implícita de default do emissor, variável
fundamental para o
apreçamento dos derivativos de crédito, mercado que
cresceu vertiginosamente após
a crise da Ásia e Rússia, passando de US$ 180 bilhões de
dólares em 1996 para um
valor esperado de US$ 20 trilhões ao final de 2006. Este
mercado é reconhecido
como responsável por conter os efeitos contágios e manter
a estabilidade no
mercado financeiro em crises recentes como a da WorldCom,
Parmalat, Enron entre
outros. / [en] The dissertation presents three economic essays examining
situations where
the real options approach can be useful in the definition
of regulatory policies,
investment strategies and pricing of sovereign risk. The
first essay considers the new
regulation oriented to interconnection costs of
telecommunications networks and
proposes adjustments in calculating the return on capital
invested in local fixed
telephone service. The proposed model establishes the mark-
up on the weighted
average cost of capital (WACC) to be applied to new
concession contracts, taking into
account the access option provided by the fixed operator
to entrants. The essay
innovates by incorporating to the options model the impact
of changes in
technological paradigms that cause the concessionaire´s
demand to fall. The results
indicate the robustness of the mark-up in relation to
alterations in the model´s basic
parameters (fixed-fixed and fixed-mobile traffic and
negative demand shocks), and
mark-up was estimated to be under 1%. The second essay
analyzes investment
strategies in real estate development, a sector that
involves low liquidity, slow
payback and various economic uncertainties related to
market demand, price per
square meter and land cost. The essay analyzes strategies
for simultaneous and
sequential launch of real estate projects. The first
involves lower construction cost, but
comes associated with more uncertain results. Sequential
launch presents
characteristics similar to real options because it has a
series of built-in opportunities
regarding the acquisition of information and delay or
abandonment of the project. We
present a case study of a development in the city of Rio
de Janeiro, identifying the
optimal strategy and the maximum land cost. Sequential
launch aggregates 10% extra
value to the undertaking, besides reducing the developer´s
risk exposure by over half
in comparison with the traditional discounted cash flow
method. Finally, the third
essay examines sovereign risk and proposes a model from
the theory of options and
contingent assets to analyze the term structure of four
emerging countries (Brazil,
Mexico, Russia and Turkey) that together represented on
average 54% of JPMorgan´s
EMBIG index in the 2000-2005 period. The real exchange
rate, modeled as a simple
diffusion process, is considered as indicative of default.
The calibrated model
indicates that in the period studied, the market
systematically underpriced Brazilian
bonds by an average of 100 basis points, while for Mexico,
Russia and Turkey it fairly priced the sovereign debt. The
essay also provides the implicit probability of the
issuer´s default, a fundamental variable for pricing
credit derivatives, a market that has
grown at a dizzying pace since the Asian and Russian
crises, rising from US$ 180
billion in 1996 to an expected value of US$ 20 trillion at
the end of 2006. This market
is recognized as being responsible for containing the
contagious effects and
maintaining the stability of the financial market in
recent crises, such as the corporate
meltdowns of WorldCom, Parmalat and Enron, among others.
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