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Modeling and projecting Nepal´s Mortality and FertilityDevkota, Jyoti U. 26 September 2000 (has links)
The objective behind this study was to mathematically analyse, model and forecast the vital rates (mortality and fertility)
of Nepal. In order to attain this goal, the data have been converted into tables and analysed intensively using several
softwares such as Mocrosoft Excel, SPSS, Mathematica. The margin of error of data has been analysed. In Chapter 4, the
error and uncertainity in the data have been analysed using Bayesian analysis. The reliability of the data of Nepal has been
compared with the reliability of the data of Germany. The mortality and fertility conditions of Nepal have been compared
from two angles. Data on India (particularly north India) have provided comparison on the socio-economic grounds
whereas data on Germany(with accurate and abundant data) have provided comparison on the ground of data availability
and accuracy. Thus in addition to analysing and modeling the data, the regional behaviour has been studied. The limited and
defective data of Nepal have posed a challange at every stage and phase. Because of this very long term forecasting of
mortality could not be made. But the model has provided a lot of information on the mortality for the years for which the
data were lacking. But in the comming future, with new data at hand and with the new models developed here, it could be
possible to do long term projections. In the less developed world, rural and urban areas have a big impact on the mortality
and fertility of a country. The rural and urban effects on mortality and fertility have been studied individually. While
analyzing the mortality scene of Nepal, it has been observed that the mortality is decreasing. The decrease is slow, but it
reflects the advancement in medical facilities and health awareness. The fertility is also decreasing. There is a decrease in
the number of children per woman and per family. This decrease is more pronounced in the urban areas as compared to the
rural areas. This also reflects that the family planning programmes launched are showing results, particularly in urban
areas.
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Populační vývoj ve Švédsku od roku 1960 / Population development in Sweden since 1960Nováková, Iveta January 2021 (has links)
Population development in Sweden since 1960 Abstract This diploma thesis deals with the population development in Sweden between 1960 and 2018. The main goal of this work is to evaluate in the context of selected demographic characteristics the course of demographic changes that appeared in the country after 1960. The result is changes in the level of demographic reproduction, which are referred to as the second demographic transition. From the 1960s to the present, Sweden has seen an increase in the average age at first marriage, an increase in the average age of the mother giving birth and an increase in the number of divorces. During the observed period, the Swedish population aged, the share of the pre-productive component of the population decreased, while the share of the post-productive component in the population increased. The development of total fertility in Sweden is often compared to a roller coaster due to its specific fluctuation. From 1960 to 2018, Sweden saw a decline in mortality rates, especially in the older age groups and up to one year of age, which was reflected in the values of life expectancy at birth that grew for both men and women. Sweden is inspiring for other European countries with its gender-neutral family and social policy. Keywords: population development, Sweden, second...
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就学前児童の親の社会福祉関連QOLをインパクトとしたプログラム評価に関する研究 / シュウガクゼン ジドウ ノ オヤ ノ シャカイ フクシ カンレン QOL オ インパクト トシタ プログラム ヒョウカ ニカンスル ケンキュウ / シュウガクマエ ジドウ ノ オヤ ノ シャカイ フクシ カンレン キューオーエル オ インパクト ト シタ プログラム ヒョウカ ニ カンスル ケンキュウ髙橋 順一, 高橋 順一, Junichi Takahashi 20 March 2019 (has links)
本研究は,就学前児童の親における「次世代育成支援対策推進政策に対する認知的評価」と「社会福祉関連QOL」の関係を明らかにすることを目的とした.政策評価における課題を整理し,プログラム評価,特にロジックモデル評価に焦点を当てた.大中小3都市の1,583名分のデータを用い,アウトカム指標を開発し,政策のロジックモデルを評価した.地域・性別ごとの分析も実施し,就学前児童の親の視点によるアウトカム・インパクトを効果的・効率的に高める政策に関する知見を得た. / The purpose of this study was to clarify the relationship between "cognitive appraisal of the policy on Advancement of Measures to Support Raising Next-Generation Children" and "social welfare related quality of life" of preschool children's parents. I organized the issues in policy evaluation and focused on program evaluation, especially logic model evaluation. I used 1,583 data of preschool children's parents in three large, medium and small cities and evaluated the logic model of the policy using the developed outcome and impact indicators. I also analyzed by region and gender, and gained knowledge on measures to effectively/efficiently enhance the outcome and the impact from the viewpoint of the parents. / 博士(社会福祉学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Social Welfare / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University
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