The thesis examines the determinants of decision making of child conception. The estimation of fixed effect model of panel data from 14 districts of the Czech Republic shows pro-cyclical development of the count of born children. According to the model, in the economic recession the demand for children declines, because the decision making is influenced by uncertainty that emerges from the labor market instability. The results are in consent with contemporary scientific literature which have shown the pro-cyclical development of fertility in developed countries since the 1980s. The model's dependent variable is the modified birth rate which allows to examine the impact of change in unemployment and other control variables on the decision making of child conception. The empirical results show that economic insecurity in the shape of unemployment have a significant negative impact on birth rate. Apart from the main outcome the paper presents other interesting results, the impact of changes in economic and demographic variables on the modified birth rate of boys and girls, marital status and education of mother and father.

The object of the thesis is to assess, how changes in the number of live births, namely drop in the 90' of the 20th century, affecting the number of students entering the first classes in public elementary schools in Prague 10. Furthermore, the thesis focuses on, whether the number of live births affects the number of students leaving the high school or conservatory in 5th and 7th year and whether leaving more girls or boys. The thesis consists of two main parts. First part deals with the development of Czech primary education, especially after 1989. There is also a characteristic of the area of Prague 10 together with each of primary schools, for which the analysis is performed. The second part begins with a description of development in birth-rates and in the primary education in the Czech Republic as a whole and then in Prague 10. First analysis focuses on the relationship between the number of live births and the number of students entering the first year. Further, there is also an analysis of the relationship between the number of live births and the number of students leaving in the fifth or seventh year while they entering the high school or conservatory. The relationship between the birth-rates and primary education in Prague 10 has been demonstrated only in relation to the number of students entering the first grade, while the relation to the number of students entering to high school or conservatory was detected. On this basis, it can be concluded that the number of students in primary schools is dependent on the birth-rates in the region. In the Appendix there are samples of two reports on which basis were obtained the data for primary education in Prague 10.

The thesis is focused on family in the early 21st century in the Czech Republic. The basic objective is to analyze important differences in for-family behaviour (in terms of traditional families) based on selected demographic indicators in regions and districts of the Czech Republic. The theoretical part describes basic concepts related to family, its functions and changes of the family. Czech families are studied mainly on evidence of selected statistical data published by the Czech Statistical Office. To determine the regional disparities, in approach to the concept of family at the district level, the synthetic indicator T has been designed. In the final part, the economic and social conditions (unemployment, education, etc.) affecting the people's approaches to the concept of family are examined within districts.

The thesis is focused on the current state of families in the Czech Republic and its individual regions. In addition to the basic characteristics of the family, this work captures the changes undergone by the family, especially in the areas of marriage and parenthood. The diploma thesis also analyzes the behavior of the Czech population through relevant statistical indicators, such as marriage, divorce, birth and fertility in the period of 1991-2008, both at the national level and at the district levels. Based on the analysed results of the statistical indicators, the author assesses whether there exist differences between individual regions of the Czech Republic, which relate to the family behavior of the population.

近年來，臺灣因社會觀念、經濟狀況等大幅改變，生育率急速下降；人口結構失衡除了生育數應由政策面加以著手改善，更應藉此提升人口素質，此時負責人口素質第一線的國小教育體系越發重要。觀諸各層級學校之業務運作上，行政業務乃為校務工作成功與否的幕後推手，故學校行政人員的心理感受及行為舉措將間接影響國民小學教學品質，此議題值得深究。本研究旨在探究偏遠地區六班國小行政人員在少子化衝擊下，其工作滿足及生涯規劃之影響，藉由多個面向瞭解受訪者工作滿足程度，並從「個人特質」、「心理動機」及「價值觀」等三種取向分析受訪者生涯之規劃，俾作為後續研究者瞭解此一議題的參考。 本研究採質性研究之深度訪談法。研究對象總數為8人，均為現仍服務於偏遠地區國民小學之專任行政人員。經分析訪談資料後，所得研究發現綜述如下： 一、偏遠地區小型國小因編制員額有限，故絕大部份行政人員業務範圍皆為一般中大型學校行政人員多樣工作複合，易有不滿足感產生。 二、小校因人員有限，同ㄧ處室之行政人員，常常需共同協力完成業務，若其中有人怠惰或拖延，其他人員勢必承擔多出的業務，才能使事情順利完成，此時易有怨言產生。 三、學校之存廢裁併政策應該整體性作考量，並針對偏遠地區訂定例外規定，畢竟學校規模小不是原罪，是否廢校要視多方的指標來善加評估。 四、無論是對於教學工作的支援，使教師及學童無後顧之憂；或者建置完善教學環境，皆指明行政人員係維持校務持續運作的幕後功臣。 五、學生人數下降並非單純因學校教學不佳，而係各種因素交錯產生的結果，少子化僅是因素之一，另學校地理位置偏僻與否、學區內學校多寡、居民經濟狀況…等皆是原因。 本研究根據研究發現，提出以下建議： 一、部份公務機關對於學校行政人員觀感為：抗壓性不足、工作輕鬆、業務單純；為避免年輕有抱負之公務人員視國小行政人員為畏途，且強化國小教育行政力量，應暢通國小行政人員之升遷管道。 二、工友或校園警衛等可使用外包或派遣人力之職務，宜考慮委由民間辦理，不但可節省國小人事經費，亦可藉此導入民間經營效率。 三、偏遠地區國小之業務主管應對於複合工作較繁重之同仁多加溝通，適時紓解其累積之不滿足感；另應定期輪調，使工作不致分配不均。 四、偏遠地區國民小學應積極發展學校特色，結合社區資源，或營造生態校園…等，提升學校價值，可讓學童感受課本外的環境，豐富教育內涵。 關鍵字：少子化、工作滿足、生涯規劃 / In the recent years, the birth rate in Taiwan has been declining rapidly due to the concepts in the society and the economic statuses. The population structure has become unbalanced. Besides increasing the number of newborns, it is more important to improve the quality of the population. And the front line of improving the quality of the population is the elementary school education system. Whether affairs in schools of different levels can be done smoothly depends on administrative works. Thus, school administrative personnel’s mental perception and behaviors may indirectly influence teaching quality in elementary schools. It is worthy to further explore this issue. This study discussed the impact of declining birth rate on the job satisfaction and career planning of the administrative personnel from an elementary school with six classes in a remote area. From different views, this study explored the degrees of job satisfaction of the interviewees and analyzed their career plans from the aspects of “individual characteristics”, “psychological motivation”, and “values”. This study can be used as a reference for future studies regarding this issue. This study adopted a qualitative research method – in-depth interviewing. There were a total of 8 research subjects, who were full-time administrative personnel serving in an elementary school in a remote area. The data obtained from the interviews were analyzed and the findings of this study are listed below: 1. Because the number of personnel in a small elementary school in a remote area is limited, most of the administrative personnel have to cover more complex works than those working in middle or large sized schools. Therefore, it is very common that these personnel are dissatisfied. 2. Because the number of personnel in a small elementary school is limited, the administrative personnel who work in the same department often have to complete tasks together. In case one of them being lazy or delaying, others have to shoulder more burdens to make sure things go smoothly. This is when complaints started to surface. 3. The consideration for the policies of school abolishment must be broad and general. There should be additional regulations for remote areas. After all, being small is not a sin for schools. Whether a school should be abolished should depend on evaluations with indexes of different aspects. 4. The success of supporting teaching works, which relieve teachers’ and children’s worries, and constructing a perfect teaching environment should be attributed to administrative personnel who school affairs on track. 5. The decreasing number of students is a result of various factors and their interactions, not just bad teaching in schools. The factors include declining birth rate, geographic locations of schools, number of schools in the same school district, economic statuses of residents, etc. According to the research findings, this study came up with the following suggestions: 1. Some of the public sectors have the following impressions on school administrative personnel: unable to handle pressure, without heavy burdens, and with simple tasks. In order to avoid the situation that public servants with ambitions being unwilling to serve the posts of elementary school administrative personnel, it is important to improve administrative power of elementary school administration and ensure promotions of elementary school administrative personnel. 2. The works of fellow workers and campus guards can be outsourced or contracted to private companies. This way, personnel expenses of elementary schools can be reduced and efficiencies of private companies can be introduced to schools. 3. Superintendents in elementary schools in remote areas should help their colleagues with heavy tasks to communicate in order to release their dissatisfaction in time. Also, a rotation system should be implemented so that job arrangement can be fairer. 4. Elementary schools in remote areas should actively develop their own features and integrate them with community resources or build ecological campuses, in order to increase values of schools. This way, children can experience environments outside their text books. These experiences are very educational. Key words: declining birth rate, job satisfaction, career planning

Submitted by Gustavo Gomes (gustavolascasas@gmail.com) on 2013-09-04T12:41:26Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Reconstru????o de Hist??rias de Nascimentos a partir de dados censit??rios.pdf: 1547221 bytes, checksum: 2387cf4fab6247aeacc0a867189dffcc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Roger Guedes (roger.guedes@fjp.mg.gov.br) on 2013-09-04T16:59:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Reconstru????o de Hist??rias de Nascimentos a partir de dados censit??rios.pdf: 1547221 bytes, checksum: 2387cf4fab6247aeacc0a867189dffcc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-04T16:59:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Reconstru????o de Hist??rias de Nascimentos a partir de dados censit??rios.pdf: 1547221 bytes, checksum: 2387cf4fab6247aeacc0a867189dffcc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Funda????o Jo??o Pinheiro / Durante a segunda metade do s??culo XX, o Brasil passou por um r??pido, surpreendente e generalizado processo de decl??nio da fecundidade, sem o pren??ncio de mudan??as s??cio-econ??micas, estruturais e de pol??ticas de planejamento familiar expl??citas. Os n??veis cada vez mais baixos da fecundidade no pa??s colocam novos desafios. Um desses desafios est?? relacionado ?? mensura????o da fecundidade. Apesar da boa qualidade dos dados censit??rios brasileiros, os debates acerca das tend??ncias da fecundidade ficam limitados ?? an??lise das medidas tradicionais, devido ?? menor qualidade dos registros de nascimentos e ?? aus??ncia de boas hist??rias de nascimentos. Na medida em que a fecundidade declina e as mudan??as passam ocorrer em um ritmo mais lento, novas dimens??es assumem um papel importante nas an??lises sobre a fecundidade. O objetivo principal deste trabalho ?? o de aplicar duas metodologias de reconstru????o de hist??ria de nascimentos ??? uma metodologia em desenvolvimento no Cedeplar e outra metodologia desenvolvida por Luther & Cho (1986) ??? aos dados censit??rios brasileiros de 2000, comparar e testar a confiabilidade dos resultados. Pretende-se, com isso, determinar a metodologia mais adequada ao caso brasileiro e buscar um melhor aproveitamento das bases de dados dispon??veis, no que concerne a formas alternativas de estima????o da fecundidade. Os objetivos espec??ficos s??o: (i) aplicar a metodologia de reconstru????o de hist??rias de nascimentos mais adequada ao caso brasileiro aos dados dos Censos Demogr??ficos de 1980 e 1991; (ii) aplicar o M??todo dos Filhos Pr??prios ??s tr??s ??ltimas edi????es do Censo Demogr??fico brasileiro ??? 1980, 1991 e 2000; (iii) comparar as s??ries hist??ricas de TFT pelas hist??rias de nascimentos com a s??rie produzida pelo M??todo dos Filhos Pr??prios; (iv) aplicar o modelo proposto por Kohler & Ortega, que dissocia os efeitos sobre a fecundidade em tr??s componentes ??? tempo, quantum e composi????o ???, utilizando as bases de dados das hist??rias de nascimentos; (v) calcular medidas alternativas de fecundidade de per??odo, baseadas em probabilidades de nascimento. Os resultados sugerem que a metodologia de reconstru????o de hist??rias de nascimentos desenvolvida no Cedeplar ?? a mais satisfat??ria para o caso do Brasil por ter produzido melhores resultados quando aplicada aos dados do Censo Demogr??fico de 2000. Os resultados da aplica????o aos dados censit??rios de 1980 e 1991 tamb??m foram satisfat??rios, quando comparados aos resultados do M??todo dos Filhos Pr??prios. A aplica????o do modelo de K??hler e Ortega e a determina????o de indicadores alternativos de fecundidade de per??odo sugerem que o decl??nio da fecundidade no Brasil foi acompanhado por um efeito tempo negativo e um efeito parturi????o significativo. Ao final dos anos 1990, os resultados indicam que ?? prov??vel que o Brasil entre no processo de posterga????o da fecundidade, com predomin??ncia de efeito tempo. A se confirmar este cen??rio, a fecundidade observada no Brasil atingir?? n??veis bem mais baixos do que os j?? observados. / Brazil has experienced a steady fertility decline during the last fifty years, despite the lack of socioeconomic and structural changes or any explicit family planning policies. The low fertility levels leads to new challenges, one of them related to fertility measurement. Although Brazil has very good quality census data, the debate on future fertility trends and their political/economic consequences has been limited by the lack of good quality birth histories and vital registration. The only empirical evidence used by the experts is the measurement of period TFRs (incidence rates). As fertility reaches lower levels, new dimensions assume an important role in fertility analysis ??? for instance, the current debate about tempo and quantum. Taking those dimensions into consideration is crucial for understanding the fertility transition in Brazil. The main objective of this dissertation is to determine the more satisfactory methodology of birth history reconstruction to the Brazilian case in 2000, based on two methodologies ??? one being developed at Cedeplar, and one elaborated by Luther and Cho (1986). Data come from the Brazilian Demographic Census. The specific objectives of this dissertation are: (i) to apply the more satisfactory birth history reconstruction methodology to the 1980 and 1991 Brazilian Demographic Censuses; (ii) to apply the Own Children Method to the last three editions of the Brazilian demographic censuses; (iii) to compare the TFR series produced by the birth history reconstruction methodology to the series produced by the Own Children Method ; (iv) to apply the K??hler and Ortega method to disentangle tempo and parity composition effects from the observed TFR; and (v) to determine alternative period fertility measures, based on birth probabilities. Results suggest that the methodology of birth history reconstruction developed at Cedeplar ??? HNM ??? is more satisfactory to the Brazilian case, as it produced better results when applied to the 2000 Brazilian Demographic Census. Data from the 1980 and 1991 censuses also yielded satisfactory results when compared to the Own Children Method results. The application of the K??hler and Ortega method and the determination of the alternative period fertility measures suggest that the fertility decline in Brazil was accompanied by a negative tempo effect and a significant parity composition effect. At the end of the 1990???s, the results indicate that Brazil will probably enter into the fertility postponement process with a dominant tempo effect. If this scenario is confirmed, Brazil will experience very low levels of observed TFR in the near future. / Pessoa, fam??lia e sociedade

This thesis deals with the regional population projections. The theoretical part is divided into several chapters, which describe and explain the basic concepts, such as demographics, birth rate, death rate and more. There are also analyzed the actual projection methods and specifying formulas. Last but not least consulted on the population projection of the Czech Republic in 2050 and the most recent projections up to the year 2100th. Own part is about the screening for districts in South Bohemian region. Projections were prepared for districts: Ceske Budejovice, Cesky Krumlov, Jindrichuv Hradec, Prachatice, Pisek, Strakonice and Tabor. As evaluation indicators were elected, population, life expectancy, total fertility rate and the secondary sex ratio or even sex ratio. Projections for population and life expectancy has been created specially for men and women.

由於台灣近年來生育率有逐年下滑的趨勢，形成少子化的現象，少子化代表著未來人口可能逐漸變少，對於社會結構、經濟發展等各方面都產生重大的影響，因此此一課題值得深究。 本研究以文獻分析及深度訪談法來進行，首先利用文獻資料來分析影響生育意願的相關原因，包括人口結構變遷對總體經濟的影響、生育行為的相關理論、現實經濟的因素、婦女勞動參與等，並歸納整理後作為深度訪談的基礎。深度訪問以大台北地區12位已婚婦女為對象，藉由深入訪談來了解箇中原因，歸結出台灣目前超低生育率的原因所在。 本研究結果發現，目前婦女生育意願低落的原因，主要是第一：傳統養兒防老的觀念式微，女性生育自主意識的崛起；第二：受教育延長、晚婚是催化高齡少子的趨勢之一；第三：現實經濟的考量下，加上養兒不易，導致多數家庭因此將生小孩的數量轉往養育的品質；第四：家庭分工的不平均也是降低婦女生育的意願的重要原因之一；最後現階段的托育政策與制度的不完善，加上生育補助有限，誘因不足之下，因而無法提高婦女的生育意願。 依據研究發現本研究建議(一)強化家庭功能，以增加婦女的社會支援；(二)提高育兒補助並視嬰幼兒為未來國家的資產，以減緩少子化的趨勢；(三)政府應以人口優質及避免人口短缺的方向努力；(四)政府應積極擬訂鼓勵男性參與育兒及家務政策，並將養育責任，由兩性來共同承擔，以達到美滿家庭的目標；(五)加強改善婦女的經濟地位，鼓勵並積極輔導婦女就業及強化專業職能的訓練，不致因婚育而影響其勞動參與，以提高其生育意願；(六)政府應正視目前超低生育率的現象，設立專責機構並參考國外(如日本或法國)生育政策及托育制度，以提高國內生育率。 關鍵字：少子化、超低生育率、生育行為、生育意願 / In Taiwan, the rate of fertility has been continually in decline in recently year, which is called ‘the phenomenon of declining birth rate.’ It signifies a less future population and impacts on every aspects of our social structure and economic development. This, it is worthy of probing. This research is conducted with the method of literature review and in-depth interviews.It first analyzes via literature review those factors influencing the will of bearing children, such as the impact of the structural change of population on the macro economy, the theory of fertility behavior, considerations of livelihood, and the women participation in labor, etc. All those factors are inducted and sorted as the basis of in-depth interview. Then, the in-depth interview is conducted on 12 married women, penetrating on the cause of extremely low fertility rate in Taiwan. This research finds the reasons to cause the low rate of fertility are as below: First, the traditional idea is decline currently to have children caring the agedness. Meanwhile, the females are learning the independent consciousness to decide how many children they want in life. The second: high grade education & late marriage is one of the trends of declining birth rate with elder females. The third: taking consideration into the family’s economy as well as hard teaching on child, most families turn to focus on life quality instead of having kid's amount. The fourth: the heavy loading of housework on females is also the reason to reduce the will of bearing children. Finally, not only the current child care policy/system but also the limited subsidization by the government is not perfect to meet the family’s requirements; which are unable to promote the will of bearing children. Based on such research findings, I come up with six policy recommendations as follows to encourage our country’s bearing rate：(一) to enhance family function according to the research, with increment women of social support；(二) look after the kids as the country’s property to promote the subsidization of bearing children to reduce the declining birth rate；(三) government should forward to superior quality population, and to avoid the population runs short；(四) the government should actively draw up some bearing plans to encourage male’s participation (sharing evenly) on child care, housework & teaching responsibility in family; which is aimed to build a sweet home for couples；(五) to improve the female’s economic position. And, to encourage/guide women to work with complete working training for proper job arrangement, which will encourage their will of bearing children when woman gets independent incomes；(六) the government should notice the serious declining birth rate currently – i.e. not only to establish some responsible organizations, but also to refer successful growing policy and child care system from other countries (such as Japan, France) in order to raise the fertility rate in Taiwan..

“Taiwan's birth rate at world record low”, opening the newspapers in Taiwan, we often could see the similar titles once in a while, the total fertility rate is 1.03‰ in 2010 which means each woman only give birth to 1.03 child a life. The population is one of the key factors to form the country. The low birth rate phenomenon occurred not only in Taiwan, but also in many developed countries. Demographers, governmental and international institutions have feared that lowest-low fertility might prove to be persistent in both developed and developing countries. Demographers in the mid-1990s could not have predicted that fertility would fall so rapidly to such levels. Not only did fertility but also other indicators related to fertility and the family adjusted suddenly and we are approaching the recent fertility decline from a broader perspective that considers the traditional and cultural legacies which affect the everyday life of ordinary citizens. The article would take the experience of OECD countries and discuss the phenomenon of the fertility measures and observe the plausible approaches of education authorities deal with low birth rate in developed countries and Taiwan.

本研究旨在探討少子化趨勢對我國國民教育師資供需之影響與相關對策。首先係從我國學齡人口結構現況及趨勢作切入，進而探究少子化趨勢對師資培育政策之影響，並分析國民教育師資供需之現況與趨勢，最後本研究藉以百分比統計、集群分析、時間序列分析、灰色預測及模糊德菲法等統計方法，分析國民教育階段師資供需之現況、預測及策略方案之評估，進而提出相關因應對策，提供政策設計者之決策參考，以期透過適當的調節與管控機制，俾利國民教育師資市場的供需均衡。 本研究依研究目的所獲得之主要研究結論有以下幾點： 一、國民教育學齡學生數之發展趨勢，已顯見受到少子化趨勢之衝擊。惟各縣市所反映之衝擊情形不同，其中以高雄市、臺北縣、基隆市、臺中市、嘉義市及臺南市等六縣市之衝擊情形最大。 二、各縣市國民小學師資人力現況受少子化趨勢之影響不一，尤其臺北市、高雄市、臺北縣、苗栗縣、臺中縣、彰化縣、南投縣、嘉義縣、 臺南縣、高雄縣、屏東縣、花蓮縣、基隆市與臺南市等縣市已呈現師資人力過剩飽和之現況。 三、各縣市國民中學師資人力現況，尚未因學齡人口數減少受明顯之衝擊，各縣市師資人力的波動情形仍屬混沌，惟其中以臺北市、彰化縣、南投縣、雲林縣、嘉義縣、屏東縣與臺南縣等屬師資人力遞減之地區。 四、以時間序列分析單變量ARIMA模式與灰色預測GM（1,1）模式進行國民教育教師人數預測之效果良好，尤其灰色預測方法平均準確率多達99％以上。 五、各縣市95-100學年度國民小學教師人數預估約減少5,703人，減少百分比為5.47％。除桃園縣、臺東縣及新竹市教師人數略有成長外，其餘各縣市教師人數皆明顯遞減，尤其南投縣、基隆市、臺北縣及屏東縣教師人數減少比率皆超過10％。 六、各縣市95-100學年度國民中學教師人數預估約增加118人，增加百分比為0.247％。其中，以臺東縣、新竹縣、嘉義市、桃園縣及澎湖縣教師人數屬穩定成長之縣市，惟雲林縣、嘉義縣、臺北市及屏東縣則屬教師人數大幅減少之縣市，其減少比率皆超過10％。 七、為期有效解決國民教育師資供需失衡之問題，於政策方案上，首要之務應先從「教師離退制度」及「教師員額編制」之體制面改革著手。 根據以上之研究結果，本研究提出以下建議，供教育行政機估決策與未來研究時之參考： 一、對教育行政機關的建議 （一）各縣市政府教育局應確實掌握未來各學年度學齡學生數之變化，並正視超額留用教師人數將逐年增加之趨勢，妥適研擬與修訂相關人事法規與制度。 （二）加強不適任教師之督導淘汰機制，推動教師專業發展評鑑，符應「專業本位、保優汰劣」之要求。 （三）健全師資培育機構組織，持續評估調節師資供需數量，落實「適量優質儲備」之措施。 （四）適當調整國民中小學教師員額編制，達成「小班小校」之理念。 （五）師資估需預測宜進行縱貫性長期研究，並委由專責單位進行全國各級學校師資推估工作。 二、對後續研究的建議 （一）在研究主題方面，可探討少子化趨勢所造成學校整併、閒置教室空間規劃、學生單位成本改變及學校行銷因應策略等議題。 （二）在研究範圍方面，可採單一縣市為研究範圍，且持續在不同的時間進行預測與評估，在研究結果之推論上將更符合現況之需求。 （三）在研究對象方面，未來之研究可針對高中職與大專校院之相對衝擊與因應策略進行研究，將使研究結果更為廣泛推論。 （四）在研究方法方面，在專家意見整合方面可改用焦點團體法或腦力激盪法；在意見調查方面可兼採質化方法。 （五）在統計方法方面，在師資供需預測方面可採以時間數列分析、模糊時間數列分析、類神經網路、多變量模糊時間數列等統計方法，藉以比較預測結果之統計差異。 / The low birth rate--the influence and strategy of the supply and demand of teacher in compulsory education Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyze the policy of teacher education by the point view of population composition and probe into the state of teacher supply and demand, with its trend of development. The article analyze by percentage, cluster analysis, time series analysis, grey forecasting, and fuzzy Delphi method to realize the current situation, forecast and solving strategies of teacher supply and demand bring related solving strategies. Marjor findings include the following: 1.The trend of students in compulsory education was to affect by the low birth rate. Every county in the low birth rate was different, especially the most influence were Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Keelung city, Taichung city, Chiayi city, and Tainan city. 2.The teacher supply and demand of different counties in elementary education were not the same, especially the most saturated membership of teachers were Taipei city, Kaohsiung city, Taipei county, Miaoli county, Taichung county, Changhua county, Nantou county, Chiayi county, Tainan county, Kaohsiung county, Pingtung county, Hualien county, Keelung city, and Tainan city. 3. The teacher supply and demand of different counties in middle education were disorderly by the low birth rate influence, but these counties’ teachers development trend were cut down, including Taipei city, Chiayi county, Nantou county, Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Pingtung county, and Tainan county. 4.The ARIMA model and grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting the supply and demand of teacher were good methods, especially the grey forecasting GM(1,1) model to forecasting degree of accuracy exceeds 99 percent. 5.Elementary education is forecasted reducing rough 5,703 teachers in 95-100 session. Besides Taoyuan county, Taitung county, and Hsinchu city have growth of teachers, the others’ teachers have obvious reducing, especially Nantou county, Keelung city, Taipei county, and Penghu county reduce teachers exceeding 10 percent. 6.The earlier stage of Middle education is forecasted increase rough 118 teachers in 95-100 session. Among countries belong to the growth of teachers are Taitung county, Hsinchu county, Chiayi city, Taoyuan county, and Penghu county. However, Among countries belong to the reducing of teachers are Yunlin county, Chiayi county, Taipei city, and Pingtung county, which reducing percentage over 10 percent. 7. To solving the imbalance of teacher supply and demand must be started in teachers’ retirement and evaluation reform, and teacher membership of organization reform. Based on the finding, several recommendations were made for the superior authorities, for the governments of education administration as well as for further research.