<p>An entity capable of assessing its and others action capabilities possess the power to predict how the involved entities may change their world. Through this knowledge and higher level of situation awareness, the assessing entity may choose the actions that have the most suitable effect, resulting in that entity’s desired world state.</p><p>This thesis covers aspects and concepts of an arbitrary planning system and presents a threat analyzer architecture built on the novel planning system Goal-Oriented Action Planning (GOAP). This planning system has been suggested for an application for improved missile route planning and targeting, as well as being applied in contemporary computer games such as F.E.A.R. – First Encounter Assault Recon and S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl. The GOAP architecture realized in this project is utilized by two agents that perform action planning to reach their desired world states. One of the agents employs a modified GOAP planner used as a threat analyzer in order to determine what threat level the adversary agent constitutes. This project does also introduce a conceptual schema of a general planning system that considers orders, doctrine and style; as well as a schema depicting an agent system using a blackboard in conjunction with the OODA-loop.</p>

Submitted by Patricia Regina Caldeira Daré Artoni (pattydare@gmail.com) on 2013-09-06T23:06:19Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_PatriciaReginaCaldeiraDareArtoni.pdf: 2049299 bytes, checksum: 4026feb5c8cbd73a4d3b99ba8bbf3522 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-09-09T13:03:15Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_PatriciaReginaCaldeiraDareArtoni.pdf: 2049299 bytes, checksum: 4026feb5c8cbd73a4d3b99ba8bbf3522 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-09T13:14:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_PatriciaReginaCaldeiraDareArtoni.pdf: 2049299 bytes, checksum: 4026feb5c8cbd73a4d3b99ba8bbf3522 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-09 / Considering the evolution in research and theory of the psychology of risk and, in particular, from the perspective of risk as feelings (emphasizing the interaction between cognition and emotion on threat analysis), this thesis proposes and tests a conceptual model with focus on the influences of vulnerability on consumer response to automobile services. This study hypothesized that self-efficacy reduces or eliminates the vulnerability‟s effect on behavioral intentions. The lack of research on feelings of vulnerability in services consumption, specifically those not related to health as are the maintenance automotive services, and the lack of studies linking vulnerability and behavioral intentions to service purchase, stimulated this research. The impact of the three antecedents of threat analysis (perceived risk, risk as feelings and perceived severity) has been tested in a single model with self-efficacy on behavioral intention in the specific context of service consumption. The measurement proposed model was evaluated for dimensionality, validity and reliability by using confirmatory factor analysis; subsequently evaluated the causal hypotheses proposed in the model of full structural equation. The model was estimated and in one samples (ns = 202). Data were collected through an transverse online survey and research findings confirm the hypotheses that (1) the perceived risk and self-efficacy affect vulnerability. The hypotheses of (2) relationship between service failure severity and perceived risk or vulnerability were not supported. Implications for the theory and management are discussed. These findings help to understand the results of studies conducted in the U.S. in recent decades, offer a theoretical contribution to the understanding of the phenomenon of vulnerability, validate a scale to measure the phenomenon applied to services in the Brazilian context and reinforce the importance of considering self-efficacy for generalizations. From the perspective of management, the study shows that vulnerability influences business performance of automotive service companies, since it negatively influences the positive recommendation and maintaining business relationships. The findings suggest that managers of service companies should endeavor to reduce the vulnerability of the consumer through information that assist in the negotiation and evaluation of the service to minimize uncertainties. / Considerando os avanços da pesquisa e teoria da psicologia do risco e, em particular, da perspectiva do risco como sentimentos, ressaltando a interação entre cognição e emoção na análise de ameaças, esta tese propõe e testa um modelo conceitual sobre o efeito da vulnerabilidade (risco como sentimento) em intenções comportamentais de serviços relacionados a automóveis. Este estudo teve como hipótese que a autoeficácia percebida pelo consumidor diminui ou elimina o efeito da vulnerabilidade nas intenções comportamentais de perpetuidade de relacionamento com a empresa de serviço. Estimularam o interesse de pesquisa tanto a carência de pesquisas sobre o papel da vulnerabilidade no consumo de serviços não relacionados à área da saúde ou ao corpo do consumidor, quanto a carência de pesquisas sobre a relação entre a vulnerabilidade e as intenções comportamentais. Testou-se em um único modelo, o impacto previsto pelos processos cognitivos e afetivos que envolvem a análise de ameaça (sentimentos de vulnerabilidade, risco e severidade das falhas) e de capacidade de enfrentamento (autoeficácia) na intenção comportamental, no contexto específico de consumo de serviços relativos a automóveis. O modelo de mensuração proposto foi avaliado quanto à dimensionalidade, validade e confiabilidade pelo uso de análise fatorial confirmatória; posteriormente, avaliou-se a relação causal proposta nas hipóteses pelo modelo completo de equações estruturais. O modelo de mensuração proposto foi avaliado quanto à dimensionalidade, validade e confiabilidade pelo uso de análise fatorial confirmatória; posteriormente, avaliou-se a relação proposta nas hipóteses pelo modelo completo de equações estruturais, usando-se o software Amos e a estimativa por máxima verossimilhança. O modelo foi estimado em uma amostra de 202 respondentes. Os dados foram coletados por meio de um levantamento eletrônico transversal e os achados da pesquisa apontam para a confirmação das hipóteses de que (1) o risco percebido cognitivamente, sentimentos de vulnerabilidade e a autoeficácia influenciam as intenções comportamentais. Não foi possível suportar a hipótese de que (2) a severidade das possíveis falhas de serviço tem relação com risco ou com sentimentos de vulnerabilidade. Esses achados ajudam a compreender a relação entre intenções comportamentais e sentimentos de vulnerabilidade. Implicações para o desenvolvimento teórico da pesquisa na área e implicações gerenciais são discutidas. Os resultados auxiliam a compreensão dos resultados de estudos realizados nos EUA nas últimas décadas. Os achados oferecem uma contribuição teórica ao entendimento do fenômeno da vulnerabilidade, a adaptação de uma escala de medida para o fenômeno no contexto brasileiro e aplicado a serviços que não sejam de saúde e cuidados com o corpo. Do ponto de vista gerencial, o estudo alerta para o fato de a vulnerabilidade exercer influência no desempenho comercial de empresas de serviços automotivos, visto que ela influência negativamente a recomendação positiva e a manutenção de relacionamentos de negócios. Os achados sugerem que os gestores de empresas de serviços devem empreender esforços para reduzir a vulnerabilidade do consumidor por meio de informações que o auxiliem na negociação e avaliação do serviço ao minimizar incertezas.

Many embedded systems are complex, and it is often required that the firmware in these systems are updatable by the end-user. For economical and confidentiality reasons, it is important that these systems only accept firmware approved by the firmware producer. This thesis work focuses on creating a security enhanced firmware update procedure that is suitable for use in embedded systems. The common elements of embedded systems are described and various candidate algorithms are compared as candidates for firmware verification. Patents are used as a base for the proposal of a security enhanced update procedure. We also use attack trees to perform a threat analysis on an update procedure. The results are a threat analysis of a home office router and the proposal of an update procedure. The update procedure will only accept approved firmware and prevents reversion to old, vulnerable, firmware versions. The firmware verification is performed using the hash function SHA-224 and the digital signature algorithm RSA with a key length of 2048. The selection of algorithms and key lengths mitigates the threat of brute-force and cryptanalysis attacks on the verification algorithms and is believed to be secure through 2030.

The digital twin is a concept that has attracted the attention of both industry and academia in the last decade with the advent of Industry 4.0 and the adoption of future technologies. Previous research has shown that the automotive industry is facing significant challenges as demand for advanced, connected systems increases, and with it, cybersecurity risks. As the automotive industry has evolved, this concept has become prevalent in many areas and is now applied to products and systems throughout their lifecycle, which also means that the digital twin plays a key role in many development processes. Therefore, it is important to investigate what the cybersecurity stands in terms of cybersecurity. This study takes an exploratory approach that primarily aims to investigate and gain a broader perspective on a relatively unexplored topic, namely cybersecurity for digital twins in the automotive industry. The application of digital twins in the automotive industry was explored to determine what security challenges exist and whether these challenges can be solved using existing security paradigms. Industrial use cases were developed to illustrate the digital twins that exist in the automotive industry. In addition, at an overall level, a threat analysis and risk assessment (TARA) is conducted, again using STRIDE, one of the most commonly used threat models, to identify potential risks and attacks that exist and how they might be addressed in each case. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted with four experts working with digital twins and future innovations in the automotive industry to gain insight into how the experts view the digital twin in the context of cybersecurity, risks and threats of digital information. The results of the TARA analysis and the interviews showed that there are many different risks for digital twins that may vary between digital twins, and that there is a common denominator for all of them that can be defined as the biggest challenge for the digital twin, which is data and its related risks. Thus, it can be said that the security paradigms for solving the digital twin are based on the threats and risks of the individual digital twin. / Digital tvilling är ett koncept som har uppmärksammats av både industrin och akademin under det senaste decenniet i och med uppkomsten av Industri 4.0 och introduktionen på framtidens tekniker. Tidigare forskning visar på att bilindustrin står inför stora utmaningar där efterfrågan på avancerade uppkopplade system efterfrågas, i samband med detta har även cybersäkerhetsriskerna ökat. Detta koncept har även med bilindustrins utveckling adopterats brett inom många områden och tillämpas idag på produkter och system under hela dess livscykel, vilket även innebär att den digitala tvillingen har en nyckelroll i många utvecklingsprocesser. Därmed är det relevant att undersöka hur den digitala tvillingen står sig gällande cybersäkerhet. Denna studie har en explorativ ansats som primärt syftar till att undersöka ett relativt outforskat ämne och få ett bredare perspektiv, nämligen cybersäkerhet för digitala tvillingar inom bilindustrin. Tillämpningen av den digitala tvillingen inom bilindustrin undersöks för att ta reda på vilka säkerhetsutmaningar som finns samt identifiera om dessa utmaningar kan lösas med befintliga säkerhetsparadigm. Industriella användningsfall tas fram för att exemplifiera på digitala tvillingar som finns inom bilindustrin, vidare utförs hotanalys och riskbedömning (TARA) på en övergripande nivå där även STRIDE, ett av de mest tillämpade hotmodeller, används för att kartlägga möjliga risker och attacker som finns hur de möjligtvis kan åtgärdas för det enskilda fallet. Semi-strukturerade intervjuer utfördes med fyra experter som arbetar med digital tvilling och framtida innovationer inom bilindustrin för att få insikt på hur dessa experter ser på den digitala tvillingen i kontexten cybersäkerhet, risker och hot av digital information. Med resultaten från TARA analysen samt intervjuerna gick det att få fram att det finns många olika risker för digitala tvillingar som kan variera mellan de enskilda digitala tvillingarna samt att det finns en gemensam nämnare för samtliga som går att definiera som den största utmaningen för den digitala tvillingen vilket är data och dess relaterade risker. Med detta kan man säga att säkerhetsparadigmerna för att lösa den digitala tvillingen baseras på den enskilda digitala tvillingens hot och risker.

The problem that was identified is that physical surveillance is not generally used by general detectives in the South African Police Service as a technique during their investigations. According to the researcher’s experience, this can be due to lack of understanding or experience or may stem from ignorance. A lack of training on the use of physical surveillance as a method to obtain information for the investigation process was also identified as a problem. This study therefore investigated the role and use of physical surveillance within the forensic investigation process. The focus of the research was on basic static (stationary), foot and vehicle surveillance as these types of surveillance are usually conducted in conjunction with each other. An empirical research design was used to conduct the research. A qualitative research approach enabled the researcher to obtain first-hand information from interviews with general detectives. Information was also obtained from a thorough literature study and from the researcher’s own experience on the topic. To conduct effective investigation, it is important for investigators to be familiar with the concept of physical surveillance, its elements, its influence and its values. A physical surveillance operation is a forensic tool used to gather evidence, to recover stolen property, and to identify and arrest the perpetrator. The use of physical surveillance during investigations serves the purpose of gathering evidence and information that can be used as intelligence. Successful forensic investigation requires skill and places extraordinary demands on detectives to utilise all available methods and techniques. The recognition of the use of physical surveillance as a method of evidence gathering is of outmost importance. The research has revealed that general detectives do not acknowledge the importance of physical surveillance as a method to obtain information for the investigation process. It is of vital importance that all detectives be properly trained with the necessary knowledge and skills to make use of this valuable investigative tool. / Police Practice / M. Tech. (Forensic Investigation)

An entity capable of assessing its and others action capabilities possess the power to predict how the involved entities may change their world. Through this knowledge and higher level of situation awareness, the assessing entity may choose the actions that have the most suitable effect, resulting in that entity’s desired world state. This thesis covers aspects and concepts of an arbitrary planning system and presents a threat analyzer architecture built on the novel planning system Goal-Oriented Action Planning (GOAP). This planning system has been suggested for an application for improved missile route planning and targeting, as well as being applied in contemporary computer games such as F.E.A.R. – First Encounter Assault Recon and S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl. The GOAP architecture realized in this project is utilized by two agents that perform action planning to reach their desired world states. One of the agents employs a modified GOAP planner used as a threat analyzer in order to determine what threat level the adversary agent constitutes. This project does also introduce a conceptual schema of a general planning system that considers orders, doctrine and style; as well as a schema depicting an agent system using a blackboard in conjunction with the OODA-loop.

This dissertation thesis is dedicated to on-line services security management from service provider's and service consumer's viewpoints. The main goal is to propose a framework for on-line services security risk management, to develop a supporting software tool prototype and to validate them through a case study performed in a real-world environment. The key components of the proposed framework are a threat model and a risk model. These models are designed to fit specific features of on-line services and the surrounding environment. A risk management process is an integral part of the framework. The process is suitable for frequent and recurrent risk assessments. The process comprises of eight steps, related roles and responsibilities are defined for each step. The process execution results in identification and execution of proper tasks which contribute to treatment of identified security risks and deficiencies. Documentation and reporting of an overall level of on-line services security over time is possible if the process is executed on a regular basis. The proposed framework was validated through a case study performed in a large enterprise environment.

The problem that was identified is that physical surveillance is not generally used by general detectives in the South African Police Service as a technique during their investigations. According to the researcher’s experience, this can be due to lack of understanding or experience or may stem from ignorance. A lack of training on the use of physical surveillance as a method to obtain information for the investigation process was also identified as a problem. This study therefore investigated the role and use of physical surveillance within the forensic investigation process. The focus of the research was on basic static (stationary), foot and vehicle surveillance as these types of surveillance are usually conducted in conjunction with each other. An empirical research design was used to conduct the research. A qualitative research approach enabled the researcher to obtain first-hand information from interviews with general detectives. Information was also obtained from a thorough literature study and from the researcher’s own experience on the topic. To conduct effective investigation, it is important for investigators to be familiar with the concept of physical surveillance, its elements, its influence and its values. A physical surveillance operation is a forensic tool used to gather evidence, to recover stolen property, and to identify and arrest the perpetrator. The use of physical surveillance during investigations serves the purpose of gathering evidence and information that can be used as intelligence. Successful forensic investigation requires skill and places extraordinary demands on detectives to utilise all available methods and techniques. The recognition of the use of physical surveillance as a method of evidence gathering is of outmost importance. The research has revealed that general detectives do not acknowledge the importance of physical surveillance as a method to obtain information for the investigation process. It is of vital importance that all detectives be properly trained with the necessary knowledge and skills to make use of this valuable investigative tool. / Police Practice / M. Tech. (Forensic Investigation)

The study investigated the application of the crime threat analysis process at station level within the Nelson Mandela Metro City area with the objective of determining inhibiting factors (constraints) and best practices. Qualitative research methodology was applied and interviews were conducted with crime analysts and specialised investigators/intelligence analysts. The research design can be best described as descriptive and explorative in nature. The crime threat analysis process embroils the application of various crime analysis techniques and the outcomes thereof intends to have a dual purpose of generating operational crime management information in assisting crime prevention initiatives and crime detection efforts, mainly focussing on the criminal activities of group offenders (organised crime related), repeat offenders and serial offenders. During the study it became evident that crime analysts understand and thus apply the crime threat analysis process indifferently, which impeded on the relevancy and the utilisation thereof as an effective crime management tool. / Criminology / M.Tech. (Policing)

The study investigated the application of the crime threat analysis process at station level within the Nelson Mandela Metro City area with the objective of determining inhibiting factors (constraints) and best practices. Qualitative research methodology was applied and interviews were conducted with crime analysts and specialised investigators/intelligence analysts. The research design can be best described as descriptive and explorative in nature. The crime threat analysis process embroils the application of various crime analysis techniques and the outcomes thereof intends to have a dual purpose of generating operational crime management information in assisting crime prevention initiatives and crime detection efforts, mainly focussing on the criminal activities of group offenders (organised crime related), repeat offenders and serial offenders. During the study it became evident that crime analysts understand and thus apply the crime threat analysis process indifferently, which impeded on the relevancy and the utilisation thereof as an effective crime management tool. / Criminology and Security Science / M.Tech. (Policing)