This doctoral thesis consists of four papers. Strategic behavior across gender: A comparison of female and male expert chess players analyzes gender differences in risk behavior in chess. We use a panel data set with 1.4 million games. Most notably, the data contains an objective measure of individual playing skill. We find that women are more risk averse and that men choose riskier strategies when playing against female opponents even though this reduces their winning probability. Gender differences in time preference and inconsistency among expert chess players presents findings on gender differences in time preference and inconsistency in chess. Impatience is estimated by measuring preferences for game durations while inconsistency by exploiting the 40th move time control. The results reveal that men are more impatient while women are more time inconsistent. Moreover, the difference in impatience increases with expertise while the difference in inconsistency decreases. Beauty queens and battling knights: Risk taking and attractiveness in chess explores the relationship between attractiveness and risk taking in chess. We examine whether people use riskier strategies when playing with attractive opponents and whether this affects performance. Our results suggest that male, but not female, chess players choose significantly riskier strategies when playing against an attractive female opponent, although this does not improve their performance. Strategic Learning in Repeated Chess Games, examines if chess players in repeated games with the same opponent, learn about the opponent’s type and adapt future strategies accordingly. It also shows how matching background characteristics affect the choice of strategy. The findings show that chess players learn about the opponent’s type. Players with similar background characteristics coordinate better than players of different gender or nationality but this difference decreases as the players update their beliefs. / At the time of doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows:Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.

This thesis consists of four empirically oriented papers on central bank independence (CBI) reforms.    Paper [1] is an investigation of why politicians around the world have chosen to give up power to independent central banks, thereby reducing their ability to control the economy. A new data-set, including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during 1980-2005, was collected. Politicians in non-OECD countries were more likely to delegate power to independent central banks if their country had been characterized by high variability in inflation and if they faced a high probability of being replaced. No such effects were found for OECD countries.    Paper [2], using a difference-in-difference approach, studies whether CBI reform matters for inflation performance. The analysis is based on a dataset including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during the period of 1980-2005. CBI reform is found to have contributed to bringing down inflation in high-inflation countries, but it seems unrelated to inflation performance in low-inflation countries.    Paper [3] investigates whether CBI-reforms are important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability, using a random-effects random-coefficients model to account for heterogeneity in the effects of CBI-reforms on inflation. CBI-reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average by 3.31 percent, but the effect is only present when countries with historically high inflation rates are included in the sample. Countries with more modest inflation rates have achieved low inflation without institutional reforms that grant central banks more independence, thus undermining the time-inconsistency theory case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI-reforms have contributed to lower inflation variability    Paper [4] studies the relationship between CBI and a suggested trade-off between price variability and output variability using data on CBI-levels, and data the on implementation dates of CBI-reforms. The results question the existence of such a trade-off, but indicate that there may still be potential gains in stabilization policy from CBI-reforms.

This thesis consists of four empirically oriented papers on central bank independence (CBI) reforms.    Paper [1] is an investigation of why politicians around the world have chosen to give up power to independent central banks, thereby reducing their ability to control the economy. A new data-set, including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during 1980-2005, was collected. Politicians in non-OECD countries were more likely to delegate power to independent central banks if their country had been characterized by high variability in inflation and if they faced a high probability of being replaced. No such effects were found for OECD countries.    Paper [2], using a difference-in-difference approach, studies whether CBI reform matters for inflation performance. The analysis is based on a dataset including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during the period of 1980-2005. CBI reform is found to have contributed to bringing down inflation in high-inflation countries, but it seems unrelated to inflation performance in low-inflation countries.    Paper [3] investigates whether CBI-reforms are important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability, using a random-effects random-coefficients model to account for heterogeneity in the effects of CBI-reforms on inflation. CBI-reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average by 3.31 percent, but the effect is only present when countries with historically high inflation rates are included in the sample. Countries with more modest inflation rates have achieved low inflation without institutional reforms that grant central banks more independence, thus undermining the time-inconsistency theory case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI-reforms have contributed to lower inflation variability    Paper [4] studies the relationship between CBI and a suggested trade-off between price variability and output variability using data on CBI-levels, and data the on implementation dates of CBI-reforms. The results question the existence of such a trade-off, but indicate that there may still be potential gains in stabilization policy from CBI-reforms.

Planos de previdência que dependem de uma postura ativa dos indivíduos para solicitar a adesão acabam tendo uma baixa participação (Benartzi & Thaler, 2007). Por outro lado, resultados mostram que os indivíduos decidem poupar a partir de determinadas \"regras de bolso\", tais como a escolha de um percentual máximo de contribuição que receba uma contrapartida do empregador (se a percentagem máxima que receberá contrapartida do patrocinador de um plano for 8%, então o indivíduo decidirá contribuir com esta percentagem). Assim, estratégias podem ser inseridas nos planos de aposentadoria, de forma que determinados comportamentos sejam \"incentivados\" e outros sejam \"coibidos\", fundamentalmente, em situações manifestas de inconsistência temporal por parte dos indivíduos. Esta pesquisa objetivou identificar, a partir de evidências empíricas, quais arranjos de planos previdenciários do tipo \'contribuição definida\' minimizam o efeito da miopia intertemporal sobre as decisões de poupança para a aposentadoria. Os fundamentos teóricos que nortearam a presente tese foram a Racionalidade Limitada, proposta por Simon (1979), a Teoria dos Prospectos, e as hipóteses do ciclo de vida comportamental (Behavioral Life-Cicle hypothesis), desenvolvidas por Benartzi e Thaler (2007). Utilizou-se um levantamento para identificar as características demográficas dos participantes e, paralelamente, um experimento com base em cenários para identificar as escolhas relacionadas aos planos de previdência complementar do tipo \'contribuição definida\'. O levantamento e o experimento foram formulados com o auxílio da plataforma online Questionpro© e disponibilizados por meio da internet aos participantes. Foram definidos cenários para o grupo de controle (sem manipulação de variáveis) e para dois grupos experimentais (com manipulação de variáveis), para identificar de que forma o desenho dos planos de previdência afeta as decisões de alocação de recursos a eles, e de que forma tais decisões se relacionam com as variáveis demográficas dos segurados. Os testes de hipóteses foram realizados por meio do teste não paramétrico de Wilcoxon para diferença de médias, e por meio da estimação de regressão linear por mínimos quadrados ordinários. Os achados sugerem que os respondentes parecem ter adotado um comportamento mais impaciente, quando o intervalo é deslocado para o futuro, do que quando se compara uma recompensa imediata e uma recompensa tardia em um mesmo intervalo de espera, contrariando a literatura sobre desconto hiperbólico, inconsistência temporal e comportamento impaciente. No que se refere ao efeito dos arranjos institucionais sobre as decisões de poupança para a aposentadoria, observou-se que o desenho deum plano de previdência em que haja inscrição automática compulsória, com a presença de um plano livre de risco, faz com que haja uma maior permanência dos indivíduos neste tipo de plano. Este resultado, aliado às estatísticas descritivas que apontam uma maior aposentadoria nos planos com inscrição automática compulsória e contrapartida do patrocinador (experimentador), em comparação com o plano sem tais características, nos leva a afirmar que tais desenhos permitem uma maior poupança para a aposentadoria por parte dos segurados. Portanto, a inserção de desenhos desta natureza em eventuais políticas públicas pode servir de \"empurrão\" para que as pessoas tomem decisões que vão de encontro à inconsistência temporal. / Pension plans that rely on an active attitude of individuals to apply for membership end up having a low participation (Benartzi & Thaler, 2007). On the other hand, there are findings that individuals decide to save using certain \"rules of thumb\", such as the choice of a maximum contribution percentage receiving a counterpart of the employer (if the maximum percentage that will receive compensation from the sponsor of a plan is 8%, then the individual will decide to contribute to this figure). Thus, strategies can be incorporated into retirement plans in order to contribute to certain behaviors are \"encouraged\" and others are \"restrained\" fundamentally manifest in situations of time inconsistency by individuals. This research aimed to identify, from empirical evidence, which arrangements of pension plans, type defined contribution, minimize the effect of intertemporal myopia on saving decisions for retirement. The theoretical foundations that guided this thesis were Bounded Rationality, proposed by Simon (1979), the Prospect Theory and Behavioral Life-Cicle hypothesis, developed by Benartzi and Thaler (2007). We used a survey to identify the demographic characteristics of the participants and, in parallel, an experiment based on scenarios to identify the choices related to the pension plans, type defined contribution. The survey and the experiment were formulated with the help of the online platform QuestionPro© and made available through the internet to participants. Scenarios were defined for the control group (without manipulation of variables) and two experimental groups (with manipulation of variables) to identify how the design of pension plans affect the resource allocation decisions to plans and how they relate to the demographic variables of the insured. Hypothesis tests were performed using the nonparametric Wilcoxon test for difference of means and through linear regression estimation by OLS. The findings suggest that respondents seem to have adopted a more impatient behavior when the range is shifted to the future than when comparing immediate reward and a delayed reward in a equivalent delay interval, contrary to the literature on hyperbolic discount, time inconsistency and impatient behavior. With regard to the effect of institutional arrangements on savings decisions for retirement it is noted that the pension plan design where there is compulsory automatic enrollment with the presence of a risk-free plan may improve permanence of individuals this type of plan. This result, combined with descriptive statistics that show a higher retirement plans with mandatory automatic enrollment and return the sponsor (experimenter), as compared to the plan without such features, allow us to state that such designs allow greater savings for retirement. Therefore, the inclusion of this type of design in public policy can serve as a \"nudge\" for people to make decisions that go against the time inconsistency.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22973号 / 理博第4650号 / 新制||理||1668(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科数学・数理解析専攻 / (主査)教授 日野 正訓, 教授 泉 正己, 准教授 矢野 孝次 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DFAM

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2009

The power grid is a complex system that requires detailed planning and operation of the power sources. As renewable resources are increasing their share of the power mix, there are new criterion and aspects to take into account. Renewable resources such as wind and solar power are intermittent and challenge the planning and operation further. Simultaneously, the power demand increases and will continue to increase in the future. As the power resources and demand are changing in the power system, the power grid needs to adapt and be more flexible. A flexibility tool for the power system is Dynamic Rating which can dynamically increase the capacity in the power grid components depending on the environmental conditions. This can enable for higher transmission in overhead lines which facilitates the operation planning of power units. Dynamic rating can be applied to various power system components, but the focus in this project is Dynamic Line Rating (DLR). It is interesting to study the implementation of dynamic rating in the realtime market. The real-time market optimal power flow can be done in singleinterval or multi-interval. In this project, dynamic rating is implemented into multi-interval real-time market optimal power flow to investigate the effect on the generation costs. The results indicate that DLR can reduce the generation costs in power grids that are sometimes congested. / Kraftnätet är ett komplext system som kräver detaljerad planering och verksamhet av energikällor. Allt eftersom andelen förnybara energikällor ökar tillkommer nya aspekter att ta hänsyn till. Förnybara energikällor såsom vindkraft och solenergi har en mer ojämn produktion då de är beroende av vädret, vilket utmanar drift och planering av elproduktion mer än tidigare samtidigt som elbehovet ökar och kommer att fortsätta öka i framtiden. Det växande elbehovet och utökningen av förnybara energikällor kräver att elnätet kan anpassas och vara flexibelt. Ett sätt att öka flexibiliteten är att värdera kapaciten i transmissionsledningar dynamiskt (DLR) istället för statiskt där kapaciteten beräknas efter värsta tänkbara scenario. Dynamisk värdering kan därför möjliggöra högre kraftöverföring i ledningarna under gynsamma väderförhållanden vilket underlättar driften och planeringen av kraftkomponenterna. I detta examensarbete studeras dynamisk värdering av transmissionsledningar i realtidselmarknaden med flera intervall (MIRTM) där driftplaneringen optimeras så att driftkostnaderna minimeras under bivillor för kraftsystemet. Målet är att undersöka hur driftkostnaderna påverkas då bivillkoret för kraftflödet i transmissionsledningarna är mer flexibelt med DLR. Resultaten från detta projekt visar att DLR kan minska kostnaderna i elnät som är överbelastade.

[pt] A Programação Dinâmica Dual Estocástica (PDDE) constitui um dos métodos mais utilizados no planejamento hidrotérmico. Trabalhos anteriores neste campo se baseiam numa abordagem tipo acaso-decisão, enquanto a realidade está mais próxima de um processo tipo decisão-acaso. Tal dissonância entre planejamento e implementação gera um problema de inconsistência temporal, pois decisões futuras planejadas podem não ser colocadas em prática sob as mesmas condições. Se por um lado a modelagem acaso-decisão permite uma metodologia de solução cenário-decomponível eficiente, por outro, a estrutura decisão-acaso proporciona uma solução mais robusta (pessimista), já que desconsidera a antecipatividade. Neste trabalho, mensura-se o gap de inconsistência relativo a metodologia atual, assim como se propõe uma abordagem alternativa para o planejamento hidrotérmico que utiliza uma estrutura de revelação de incertezas e um processo decisório tipo decisão-acaso, aproximando o modelo de planejamento da realidade operativa. Ao invés de empregar restrições de não-antecipatividade, o que impossibilitaria a decomposição por cenário de cada subproblema estocástico de dois estágios, a metodologia proposta considera decisões de primeiro estágio como variáveis de estado a serem otimizadas via PDDE. Assim, reduz-se consideravelmente a complexidade e tempo necessário para se obter uma solução, garantindo ainda a estrutura decisória tipo decisão-acaso e não-antecipatividade das decisões de primeiro estágio. Resultados baseados no SIN indicam que tal inconsistência pode levar a um aumento considerável da geração de termelétricas mais caras, causando maior volatilidade nos preços de curto prazo e aumento no custo total de operação. Desta forma, a solução metodológica proposta, baseada na abordagem decisão-acaso via espaço de estado aumentado, constitui contribuição relevante e oportuna tanto para práticas na indústria quanto para o estado-da-arte da literatura utilizada para o planejamento da operação hidrotérmica sob incerteza. / [en] Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) is currently one of the most employed methods for hydrothermal planning. All previous works on this subject are based on a hazard-decision approach, whereas reality is more closely related to a decision-hazard process. This dissonance between planning and implementation is a source of time-inconsistency, as future planned decisions under the same conditions may not be put into practice. If on the one hand the hazard-decision modeling framework allows a scenario-decomposable efficient solution methodology, on the other hand the decision-hazard structure provides a more robust (pessimistic) solution as it does not rely on anticipativity assumptions. In this work, we measure the inconsistency-gap related to the current methodology and propose an alternative approach for hydrothermal planning that utilizes an informationrevelation structure and decision process based on a decision-hazard framework, thereby approximating the planning model to realistic operational actions. Instead of relying on non-anticipativity constraints, which would prevent the scenario decomposition of each two-stage stochastic subproblem, the proposed methodology considers first-stage decisions as state variables to be optimized through the SDDP procedure. In this framework, the complexity and time required to find a solution is considerably reduced yet ensuring the decision-hazard decision structure and non-anticipativity of the first-stage decisions. Results based on the Brazilian power system indicate that this inconsistency may considerably increase generation of more expensive thermal units, leading to spikes in energy market spot prices and an increase in overall operational costs. Therefore, the proposed decision-hazard approach and augmented-state solution methodology constitute timely and relevant contributions to both industry practices and state of the art literature on the subject of hydrothermal operation planning under uncertainty.

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és analitzar com s'han de concebre les polítiques fiscals i monetàries en un context en què els polítics tenen problemes de credibilitat. Es desenvolupen metodologies i aplicacions per mostrar com diferents graus de credibilitat de les institucions polítiques afecten la determinació d'impostos, deute públic, instruments monetaris i, en general, els resultats econòmics. En el primer capítol - Loose commitment (Compromís Dèbil) -, s'introdueix una nova metodologia per resoldre problemes de política òptima tenint en compte que els polítics podrien no complir les seves promeses, i analitza els efectes de la credibilitat sobre la imposició sobre el capital i sobre el treball. El segon capítol - Political Disagreement Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt (Desacord Polític, Falta de Compromís i el Nivell de Deute) - considera un cas en què la credibilitat es limitada per el fet d'haver-hi alternança entre polítics amb objectius diferents. En particular, es mostra com l'alternança política i la falta de compromís afecten el nivell de deute públic. Finalment, el tercer capítol - The Macroeconomic Effects of Unstable Monetary Policy Objectives (Els Efectes Macroeconòmics de la Inestabilitat dels Objectius de Política Monetària) - analitza com la possibilitat de canvis en els objectius influeixen en les decisions de política monetària. / El objetivo de esta tesis es analizar cómo se deben concebir las políticas fiscales y monetarias en un contexto en que los políticos tienen problemas de credibilidad. Se desarrollan metodologías y aplicaciones para mostrar cómo diferentes grados de credibilidad de las instituciones políticas afectan la determinación de impuestos, deuda pública, instrumentos monetarios y, en general, los resultados económicos. En el primer capítulo - Loose commitment (Compromiso Débil)-, se introduce una nueva metodología para resolver problemas de política óptima tomando en cuenta que los políticos podrían no cumplir con sus promesas, y analiza los efectos de la credibilidad sobre la imposición sobre el capital y el trabajo. El segundo capítulo - Political Disagreement Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt (Desacuerdo Político, Falta de Compromiso y el Nivel de Deuda) - considera un caso en que la credibilidad está limitada por el hecho de que hay alternancia entre políticos con distintos objetivos. En particular, se muestra cómo la alternancia política y la falta de compromiso afectan el nivel de deuda pública. Por último, el tercer capítulo - The Macroeconomic Effects of Unstable Monetary Policy Objectives (Los Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Inestabilidad de los Objetivos de Política Monetaria) - analiza cómo la posibilidad de cambios en los objetivos influye en las decisiones de política monetaria. / The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how fiscal and monetary policies should be designed in a context where policymakers have credibility problems. Methodologies and applications are developed to show how different degrees of policymakers' credibility affect the determination of policy choices, such as taxes or monetary instruments, and more generally the economic outcomes.The first chapter - Loose Commitment -, introduces a new methodology to solve optimal policy problems taking into account that policymakers may not fulfill their promises, and analyzes the effects of policymakers' commitment on capital and labor taxation. The second chapter - Political Disagreement, Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt - considers a case where commitment is limited by the fact that policymakers with different objectives alternate in office. In particular, it is shown how lack of commitment and political turnover affect the level of public debt. Finally, the third chapter - The Macroeconomic Effects of Unstable Monetary Policy Objectives - analyzes how the possibility of changes in policy objectives influences monetary policy choices.

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