Cette thèse porte sur le rôle joué par les coûts du commerce dans la détermination des flux commerciaux. Les deux derniers chapitres examinent le rôle des coûts commerciaux non conventionnels tandis que les deux premiers évaluent l'impact des coûts plus communément associés aux échanges à l'intérieur d'un pays ainsi qu'entre différents pays. Le Chapitre 1 est le résultat d'un effort conjoint avec Jules Hugot. Dans ce chapitre nous estimons l'élasticité du commerce à la distance et son évolution depuis 1870 en utilisant quatre épisodes importants de l'histoire du commerce international: les ouvertures des canaux de Suez et de Panama et les postérieures fermetures et réouvertures du premier. Dans le chapitre 2, j'étudie l'effet d'une réduction des coûts de transport internes à un pays. Pour pallier à l'endogénéité du placement des infrastructures, j'exploite l'expérience naturelle fournie par l'ouverture des routes maritimes reliant les côtes est et ouest du Canada à travers le Canal de Panama. Le chapitre 3 documente l'impact négatif des visas de voyage sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux. Afin d'estimer leur effet causal, j'exploite une expérience naturelle fournie par les modifications introduites à l'Annexe I des Accords de Schengen. Je montre que l'introduction ultérieure de visas pour entrer dans l'espace Schengen a considérablement réduit les flux commerciaux. Dans le chapitre 4, j'examine empiriquement l'impact des différences politiques sur les flux commerciaux. En suivant la représentation du spectre politique d'Eysenck, je montre que la distance séparant les pays sur les différentes dimensions de cet spectre politique a un impact négatif robuste sur les échanges bilatéraux. / This dissertation focuses on the role played by trade cost in the shaping of trade flows. While the last two chapters examine the role of unconventional trade costs, the first two assess the impact of more traditional domestic and international trade costs. Chapter 1 is a joint effort with Jules Hugot. In this chapter we estimate the elasticity of trade to distance and its evolution since 1870. For this purpose we take advantage of four important episodes in the history of international trade: the openings of the Suez and Panama canals and the later closure and reopening of the first. In Chapter 2 I study the effect of a reduction of domestic transport costs. To address the endogeneity of infrastructure placement, I exploit the natural experiment provided by the opening of intercoastal shipping routes connecting the west and east coasts of Canada through the Panama Canal. Chapter 3 documents the negative impact of travel visas on bilateral trade flows. In order to estimate their causal effect I exploit a natural experiment provided by changes in Annex I of the Schengen agreements. I show that the subsequent introduction of visas to enter the Schengen Space considerably reduced bilateral trade flows. In chapter 4 I examine empirically the impact of politics on trade flows. Following Eysenck's depiction of the political spectrum, I show that distance separating countries on the different dimensions of the political spectrum has a robust negative impact on bilateral exchanges.

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Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The world demand for animal proteins and profit-driven production has led to producing animal proteins intensively. Intensive pork production systems have traditionally had a poor image with the public, because these production systems are associated with environmental pollution. Currently, pigs are produced on highly specialised farms, and are fed concentrated (often imported) pig feed. The resulting higher production and higher animal densities contribute to an increased pollution of water, soil and air. The aim of this study is to determine the energy balance and emissions of three case studies, and to compare these results with their financial performance. The impacts will be recorded in the following impact categories: global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP) and Energy Use (EU). The case studies are three typical South African pig production facilities selected by the South African pork producer’s organisation (SAPPO). The production inputs, from the feed acquisition to the delivery of one kg of pig at the farm gate, were included. The three farms are located in different areas in South Africa, namely KwaZulu-Natal province (Case study 1), North-West province (Case study 2) and Western Cape province (Case study 3). The functional unit (FU) for this study is defined as 1 kg of South African pig (live-weight) at the farm gate. This study found that the GWP/FU of Case study 2 is 4 and 2 % higher than Case studies 1 and 3 respectively. The EP/FU of Case study 1 is 9 and 6 % higher than Case studies 2 and 3 respectively. The AP/FU of Case study 1 is 4 and 5 % higher than Case studies 2 and 3 respectively. The EU/FU of Case study 3 is 45 % and 16 % higher than Case studies 1 and 2 respectively. The major activities that contributed to the environmental impact categories were the slurry management activity, followed by electricity usage. The financial and environmental performance comparison did show deviations. Therefore, it is recommended that environmental and financial performance measurements be made, in order to create a true reflection of the impacts. The potential for improvement in financial and environmental performance proved to be significant in the productivity of the sow herd, as well as in the management of the piglets. The location of the production facility does not claim to hold have significant environmental or financial implications. Management of the emissions produced by piggeries can offset the impact of the piggery's location. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Nie beskikbaar.

First chapter aims to quantify the role of trade in capital goods in cross country income differences. I construct a multi-country general equilibrium model of trade along the line of Eaton and Kortum (2002) and Alvarez and Lucas (2007) and introduce trade in capital goods and capital accumulation. In this framework, comparative advantage and the costs of international trade determine the pattern of production, specialization, and trade. I calibrate the model for 53 countries by estimating trade barriers and calibrating productivity parameters to match the bilateral trade data in 1996. The model is used to analyze full trade liberalizations. I find that removing barriers on investment goods accounts a large portion of reducing cross-country income differences and welfare gain. Counterfactual exercises suggest that developing countries gain relatively more than developed countries. In the second chapter, I focus on the impact of free trade on exportimport ratios in two different sectors. I employ a multi-country general equilibrium model of bilateral trade patterns along the line of Eaton and Kortum (2002) and Alvarez and Lucas (2007). I calibrate the model for 20 countries by estimating trade barriers and calibrating productivity parameters to match the bilateral trade data in 1996. The model is used to analyze full trade liberalizations. The impacts of free trade are predicted to be an increase in the export-import ratios in the comparative advantage sector and a decline in the comparative disadvantage sector, on average. In developing countries the average percentage change in export-import ratios exceeds the average percentage change in export-import ratios in developed countries. Finally, in the third chapter, I focus on the intergenerational human capital transmission. I develop and calibrate a theoretical model that considers three mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of human capital: (i) persistence in learning ability; (ii) parental investment in child’s human capital; (iii) higher teaching productivity of parents with more human capital. Within this framework, I find that (i) and (ii) plays important roles while (iii) does not. In addition the model generates the documented fact that higherwage parents spending more time teaching their children in spite of the higher opportunity cost. I asses the role of nature and nurture effects in intergenerational persistence of earnings and I find that nature accounts a large portion of the intergenerational persistence in earnings. I also quantify the relative importance of these mechanisms on wage inequality. / text

Cette thèse analyse les mesures non-tarifaires et les barrières au commerce et leurs liens avec les échanges internationaux. Dans le chapitre 1, j’étudie les objectifs derrière l’implémentation des mesures non-tarifaires sur différents produits dans plusieurs pays en développement. Au-delà des objectifs légitimes, plusieurs mesures répondent à des objectifs économiques et politiques. Le chapitre 2 propose une analyse théorique et empirique du rôle des normes de qualité sur les entreprises hétérogènes et la qualité moyenne des produits exportés. Conjointement avec Anne-Célia Disdier et Carl Gaigné, nous montrons que, dans un contexte d’asymétrie d’information, l’adoption des normes engendre la sortie des entreprises de très basse qualité (quelle que soit leur productivité) et des entreprises de haute qualité et à basse productivité. Alors que la qualité moyenne des produits n’est pas affectée de manière significative, l’impact varie largement à travers les secteurs. Le chapitre 3, une collaboration avec Evgenii Monastyrenko, analyse comment les exportateurs russes et leurs clients internationaux se partagent les risques et les coûts pendant le processus d’expédition, compte tenu de leur exposition à de nombreux obstacles. Ainsi, les grands importateurs en termes de taille et nombre de partenaires assument davantage de risques et de coûts. La probabilité que les importateurs subissent davantage de responsabilités est également plus élevée dans les transactions de biens intermédiaires. Enfin, les importateurs localisés dans un pays avec un environnement propice aux affaires sont moins susceptibles d’assumer des risques et des coûts. / This thesis tackles non-tariff measures and other trade-related barriers and their links to inter-national trade. In Chapter 1, I study the motivations behind the implementation of non-tariff measures on specific products in several developing countries. Beyond legitimate reasons, several measures appear to respond to economic and political motivations. Chapter 2 provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the role of standard-like non-tariff measures on heterogeneous firms and the average quality of exported products. In this joint work with Anne-Célia Disdier and Carl Gaigné, we show that, under information asymmetry, the enforcement of standards induces the exit of very low-quality firms (regardless of their productivity), but also of high-quality low-productivity firms. While the overall average quality of exported products is not significantly affected, the impact varies significantly across sectors. Chapter 3, co-authored with Evgenii Monastyrenko, analyzes how Russian sellers and their international customers divide risks and costs throughout the shipping process, given their exposure to numerous barriers. Thus, big buyers in terms of size and number of connections appear to bear more risks and costs in international trade transactions. The probability that buyers take on more responsibilities is also higher for transactions of intermediate goods. Finally, when buyers are located in countries with a good business environment, they are less likely to take on responsibilities.

La présente thèse contribue au renouveau de la littérature empirique en commerce international en s’intéressant tout particulièrement à la fragmentation internationale de la production et aux coûts au commerce non-traditionnels. Dans le chapitre 1, je quantifie les conséquences de l'évolution de l’utilisation d’inputs étrangers sur le contenu factoriel du commerce en tirant profit des nouvelles caractéristiques des tableaux entrées-sorties mondiaux. Les variations du contenu factoriel du commerce sont conditionnées par la place des pays dans les chaînes de production mondiales. Le chapitre 2 analyse les liens entre les relations diplomatiques et le commerce à la lumière de l'interdépendance croissante entre pays découlant de l’internationalisation des chaînes de production. Conjointement avec Julian Hinz, nous montrons, grâce à une nouvelle mesure d’un choc diplomatique, que l’impact de ce choc sur le commerce dépend crucialement du type de bien considéré. Enfin, dans le chapitre 3 co-écrit avec Julian Hinz, nous introduisons une nouvelle mesure empirique des langues parlées à l’aide des données de Twitter. Nous l’utilisons ensuite pour évaluer l’incidence de la diversité des langues sur le commerce et le revenu réel en Europe. / In this dissertation, I contribute to the thriving empirical literature in international trade by looking specifically at the international fragmentation of production and non-traditional trade costs. In chapter 1, using the new features of global input-output tables, I quantify the impact of the recent changes in foreign input use on the factor content of trade. I found that the changes in the factor content of trade are driven by each country position in the global supply chains. The chapter 2 analyzes the links between political relations and trade in light of the growing interdependency between countries. In this joint work with Julian Hinz, using a new proxy fora negative shock to political relations between countries, we show that the impact of such a negative shock is crucially heterogeneous across traded goods. Finally, in chapter 3 co-authored with Julian Hinz, we introduce a new measure for spoken languages based on Twitter data. We then use this measure to evaluate the effect of changes in language diversity on trade and real income in different locations in Europe.

Cette thèse comprend trois études sur l’impact de l’intégration commerciale et de la libéralisation des investissements de l’ASEAN suivant les recherches empiriques de la Nouvelle Économie Géographique (NEG). Les stratégies empiriques consistent à mesurer des coûts de commerce, l’accès au marché ainsi qu’à estimer les modèles de gravité théorique. La première étude examine le progrès de l’intégration commerciale et leur impact sur la performance exportatrice. La deuxième étude voit comment la libéralisation commerciale croissante affecte les inégalités régionales. La troisième étude examine l’impact des accords d’investissement sur l’attractivité des IDE des pays de l’ASEAN. Ces résultats mettent en lumière les avantages et défis de la Communauté Économique de l’ASEAN qui aura lieu à la fin de 2015. / This thesis concerns three studies on the impact of ASEAN trade integration and investment liberalization following empirical research agenda of the new economic geography (NEG). Empirical strategies deal with measuring trade costs, market access and the estimation of modern gravity models. The first study evaluates trade integration progress in ASEAN and its impact on export performance with help of trade costs and market access indicators. The second study examines how improved market access, though deepening trade liberalization, can impact regional inequality. The third study investigates the impact of investment agreement on FDI attractiveness of the ASEAN countries. The results help shed light on potential benefits and challenges ahead of the upcoming ASEAN Economic Community at the end of 2015.

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le contexte de prolifération des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) et traite des effets des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous visons à mieux comprendre et à apporter des points de vue nouveaux sur le rôle des ACR et du régionalisme en général en tant qu’élément important de la politique commerciale international aujourd’hui. Dans le premier chapitre, nous revisitons les effets ex post des ACR sur le commerce des pays membres et le commerce extrabloc en adoptant une approche empirique. Nous cherchons à déterminer la manière dont les blocs commerciaux régionaux affectent le commerce non seulement entre pays membres mais aussi entre pays membres et pays extérieurs à l’accord. Notre analyse confirme que les ACR augmentent de manière significative le commerce intra-bloc ; néanmoins, dans de nombreux cas, les ACR impliquent des effets de détournement d’échanges qui sont préjudiciables au reste du monde. Le chapitre deux examine de quelle manière la période de mise en œuvre de l’accord et les niveaux de développement des pays membres déterminent, en dynamique, l’effet des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous obtenons des tendances distinctes des effets ex post de l’ACR sur le commerce entre les accords Nord-Nord, Sud-Sud et Nord-Sud. Nous vérifions empiriquement que les ACR conclus par des partenaires commerciaux ayant un statut de développement économique analogue (les accords Nord-Nord ou Sud-Sud) sont susceptibles d’engendrer une augmentation plus forte du commerce des membres pendant une période de mise en œuvre plus courte. Le chapitre trois porte sur la manière dont les interactions entre ACR et développement financier influencent les flux d'échanges entre partenaires commerciaux. Dans ce travail conjoint avec Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, nous montrons que le développement financier (particulièrement sous sa forme intermédiée) encourage les échanges commerciaux mais que cet effet est atténué dès lors que les partenaires commerciaux ont signé un ACR. / The subject of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of different aspects of the relationship between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the multilateral trading system. We aim to provide a fresh understanding and views of the role of RTAs and regionalism in general as an important feature of international trade policy today. In chapter one we revisit the ex post effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade and extrabloc trade by adopting an empirical approach. We explore how regional trading blocs have influenced trade among members as well as trade with nonmembers. Our analysis confirms the widespread trade-enhancing effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade; however, in many cases, they lead to trade diversion effects that are detrimental to the rest of the world. Chapter two takes a closer look at how the implementation period of trade liberalization and partners’ levels of development affect the RTA dynamic effects on trade over time. We obtain distinct patterns of ex post RTA effects on trade across North-North RTAs, South-South RTAs and North-South RTAs. We empirically validate that RTAs formed by trading partners experiencing similar economic development status (North-North RTAs or South-South RTAs) are likely to lead to a larger increase in members’ trade during a shorter implementation period. Chapter three studies the mechanism through which RTAs impact the effect of financial development on trade flows between exporting and importing countries. In this joint work with Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, we show that the trade-enhancing role of financial development in the exporting country—especially through intermediated finance—is mitigated when there is an RTA between this country and its trading partner.

<p>Maritime shipping is the most important mode of transportation for international trade. About 70 to 80 percent of the value traded worldwide moves by sea [1]. An inherent problem in global shipping markets is that non-competitive pricing behavior among carriers is widely believed to raise the cost of freight [2]–[5]. It is also likely that the effects of this problem on international trade flows and welfare are magnified by restricted cabotage reservation schemes. Historically, countries have implemented such policies to prohibit foreign competition in domestic shipping markets. The effects of protection on international goods trade are reasonably well understood. The effects of protection on service trade are less straight-forward. Issues of quality become more important, but they are challenging to measure. Moreover, most of these cabotage reservation schemes ban service imports. Therefore, this makes it complicated to compare domestic and foreign services in the same market, given that service activities are place-specific. </p> <p><br></p> <p>In order to better understand the effect of non-competitive pricing behavior in global shipping markets on international trade flows and the incidence of cabotage reservation schemes in shipping markets, I develop three essays. In the first Essay I focus on quantifying the economic effects of non-competitive pricing behavior in the maritime shipping industry on (1) freight costs, (2) international trade flows, and (3) economic welfare. The research question that I answer is: what share of observed shipping freight charges is attributable to non-competitive pricing behavior in maritime shipping markets? I estimate the maritime shipping mark-ups applying the method of Atkin and Donaldson [6] to U.S. Census import data of shipments moved by sea during the period 2002-2017. I find that freight mark-ups account for approximately one-third of total freight charges in U.S. imports. Carriers’ mark-ups thus represent an equivalent ad valorem tariff of 1.4-2.6 percent. U.S. imports of differentiated products would be 4.2 to 11.6 percent higher if these mark-ups were eliminated. The cost of these mark-ups in terms of economic welfare for U.S. consumers represents an annual reduction of 0.1-0.2 percent of their real income. Carriers also charge higher maritime shipping mark-ups (per kg.) to high-value products, products with a lower elasticity of substitution, and products with higher import tariffs. Imported products from developing countries or from distant countries to the U.S. are also charged with larger tariff equivalent mark-ups.  </p> <p><br></p> <p>In the second Essay I estimate the economic burden placed on Puerto Rico by the Jones Act. Using Lloyd’s List Intelligence (LLI) data to document the supply of shipping services in the U.S. -Puerto Rico shipping market, I find that the Jones Act fleet serving Puerto Rico contains no ships designed for the purpose of moving general cargo or bulk commodities. I then evaluate how this lack of supply of shipping services is a burden on imports of goods that would normally travel by ships of those kinds, modelling Puerto Rico’s import demand in a gravity framework. This exercise indicates that Puerto Rico’s demand for final goods exhibits a greater substitution towards non-U.S. sources among products that tend a) to be shipped by sea, b) to be physically heavy, and c) not to be moved in containers. I then estimate a structural gravity model to quantify the tariff-equivalent trade costs the Jones Act imposes on U.S. shipments. This model yields that the Jones Act represents a tariff equivalent of 30.6 percent on average across products. Finally, I use these estimates to calculate the compensating variation of Jones Act removal. I find that the cost of final expenditure in Puerto Rico would be $1.4 billion (about 1.3 percent) lower per year without the Jones Act. </p> <p><br></p> <p>Finally, in the third Essay I investigate what specifically explains the estimated change in Puerto Rico’s import demand for U.S. products due to the Jones Act. I use detailed data of vessels’ ports-of-call in the Caribbean from LLI to document issues of service quality and availability in maritime shipping services between the U.S. and Puerto Rico during the period 2004-2020, calculating metrics for some quality dimensions (e.g., vessels age, shipping capacity, shipping frequency and more). I also evaluate market conditions such as the concentration level in the market of carriers and shipyard building companies in order to examine the presumed incidence in shipping freight costs. Additionally, I use Puerto Rico’s import data from the Instituto de Estadísticas de Puerto Rico (IEPR) to evaluate how much the Jones Act restrictions affect the mode choice decisions for shipping products between U.S. mainland and Puerto Rico. The research question that I try to answer is: what is the level and evolution of the quality of shipping services provided by Jones Act-compliant vessels in the U.S.-Puerto Rico shipping market? </p>

La doctrine du libre-échange a favorisé la création d’un cadre multilatéral en 1947 avec l’accord général sur les tarifs douaniers et le commerce (GATT) puis avec l’Organisation Mondiale du Commerce (OMC) en 1995. Les négociations commerciales multilatérales sous l’égide du GATT puis de l’OMC, aboutissent à une réduction considérable des droits de douane au niveau mondial. Or, devant la diminution progressive des droits de douane, un fort accroissement des barrières dites non tarifaires (BNT) apparaît.En effet, l’expansion du commerce international et l’extension des règles commerciales multilatérales à de nouveaux domaines, autrefois protégés, tels que l’agriculture, les services et la propriété intellectuelle ont amené beaucoup de pays à faire un usage plus intensif, voire « abusif » des barrières non tarifaires, une issue pour contourner la règle « libre-échangiste ».Ces barrières non tarifaires viennent ainsi compléter, voire remplacer les droits de douane et peuvent réduire, voire annuler la valeur des consolidations tarifaires. De plus, les BNT sont deux fois plus restrictives que les droits de douane, CNUCED, (2005) et elles limitent nettement plus l’accès aux marchés que les droits tarifaires, CNUCED, (2012). Egalement, les BNT peuvent prendre différentes formes, elles n’ont pas le même degré de restrictivité et ne s’appliquent pas de la même méthode. Elles varient en fonction des pays et des produits et correspondent à différents objectifs.La présente thèse s’inscrit dans le cadre des travaux de quantification des barrières non tarifaires et vise l’évaluation du degré de restrictivité des BNT tarifaires appliquées sur les importations des pays sud-méditerranéens (MED) en provenance des pays de l’Union Européenne (UE) dans le cadre de l’intégration euro-méditerranéenne. Ce travail de recherche introduit deux modèles économétriques : le premier modèle est une équation d’ « importations », il évalue l’ampleur des barrières non tarifaires appliquées sur les importations (corrigées des tarifs) des pays MED en provenance du partenaire UE et ceci à travers le calcul des équivalents tarifaires ad-valorem. Le second modèle est une équation gravitationnelle, il estime le rôle des BNT et les coûts de commerce dans les échanges UE-MED pour aboutir à une analyse plus fine de l’impact des BNT et d’autres barrières à l’échange à savoir : les droits de douane ; les coûts de transport ; la performance logistique ; les facteurs de la proximité culturelle et les facteurs institutionnels sur le commerce euro-méditerranéen. / The doctrine of free trade has promoted the creation of a multilateral framework in 1947 with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then with the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. Multilateral trade negotiations under the GATT and the WTO have resulted in a considerable reduction of tariffs worldwide. However, before the gradual reduction of tariffs, a strong increase in non-tariff barriers (NTBs) appeared.Indeed, the expansion of international trade and the expansion of multilateral trade rules to new areas previously protected, such as agriculture, services and intellectual property have led many countries to make more intensive use of non-tariff barriers, a way to overcome the " free-market " rule.These non-tariff barriers thus complement or replace tariffs and may reduce or cancel the value of tariff bindings. In addition, NTBs are twice as restrictive tariffs and imply a much more limited market access than tariffs. In addition, NTBs can take different forms, they do not have the same degree of restrictiveness and do not apply the same method. They vary across countries and products, and correspond to different objectives.This thesis aims to quantify non-tariff barriers and to assess their degree of restrictiveness on imports of Southern Mediterranean countries (MED) from the European Union (EU) in the framework of the Euro- Mediterranean integration. This research introduces two econometric models: the first model is an equation of "imports". It assesses the magnitude of non-tariff barriers applied by MED countries to the EU and other partners through the calculation of ad valorem tariff equivalents. The second model is a gravity equation. It considers the role of NTBs and trade costs in the EU -MED trade to achieve a more detailed analysis of the impact of NTBs and other barriers to trade, such as tariffs, transport costs, logistics performance as well as cultural proximity and institutional factors on the Euro- Mediterranean trade.