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The effects of income inequality on economic growth : evidence from ChinaChen, Wencong January 2018 (has links)
This thesis examines the effects income inequality has on economic growth, drawing on data from China. It focuses on two related questions: whether income inequality is harmful to economic growth and, if so, why. The first empirical chapter uses a newly-developed panel dataset at the province level to examine the long-run impact of income inequality on economic growth, addressing the problem of spurious regression that affects much of the existing literature. The empirical results indicate that the long-run effect of income inequality on economic growth is non-linear: while income inequality exerts a positive impact on economic growth for rich provinces, it is harmful to economic growth for poor regions. The second empirical chapter provides mathematical and empirical evidence that demonstrates the deficiencies in existing studies that solely rely on macroeconomic data. It examines three mainstream transmission mechanisms by using data at both the household and village level. At the village level, the empirical results show that income inequality leads to lower economic growth. However, at the household level, income inequality is positively linked to income growth for households with low levels of initial income. Such seemingly contradictory results agree with the predictions of my mathematical example and suggest that the political economy channel is responsible for the inequality-growth relationship in rural China. The last empirical chapter examines whether inequality and growth are linked across generations by evaluating the impact of the One Child Policy on fertility and education in China. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the empirical results suggest that the One Child Policy successfully lowered the probability of having a child for Han women and increased the probability of attending school for Han children. This empirical evidence indicates that the endogenous fertility channel operates in China.
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Power Flow Analysis on the Dual Input Transmission Mechanisms of Wind Turbine SystemsHsiao, Hsien-yu 21 July 2011 (has links)
Two parallel planetary gear trains design are proposed to construct a dual input transmission mechanism system used in small power wind turbine systems. The time varied input wind powers are applied in the system with specified speed and torque. The Dynamic power flow variation in gear pairs are modeled and simulated in this work. Results indicate the proposed planetary gear train system is feasible in wind turbine system. The effect of gear train parameters on the operation safety and life will also be studied.
The dynamic torque equilibrium equations between meshed gear pairs are employed to model the dynamic torque flow in this proposed dual input gear system. The nonlinear behavior of a synchronous generator has also included in the modeling. The dynamic responses of the dual input transmission mechanism system are simulated by using the 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The effect of system parameters used in this wind turbine system, i.e. the wind speed, the magnetic flux synchronous generator, the inertia flywheels, on the output electrical power variation have investigated in this study. The strength analyses of gear pairs with the bending fatigue and surface durability consideration have also studied in this work.
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Política monetária em Cabo Verde e mudanças macroeconômicas: evidências empíricasOliveira, Jailson da Conceição Teixeira de 20 March 2013 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2013-03-20 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This paper goal was to investigate important aspects about Cape Verde monetary policy and its transmission to the economy, during the 1991/2011 period with quarterly data. In which are included the Gross Domestic Product and the prices index as target variables, the liabilities operations rates over 91 days as a monetary policy instrument and the BCV´s nominal effective exchange rate index as the monetary policy intermediate goal. The implemented methodology was the VAR and MS-VAR models. As a result, we have that the modification of a VAR model to a MS-VAR brought information gains by allowing some non-linearity to the model. It was estimated two models for each methodology, in which the difference between then is due to the fact that one of them doesn´t include the exchange rate (simpler model). It was identified two regimes, in which the regime 2 appeared to be more persistent and is was also verified its exclusivity during the 1993:1 to 2006:2 period, which coincides with the period when it was separated the functions of the central and commercial banks and also was created two independent institutions, with a change in the exchange rate regime as well, that occurred in 1998. It was observed also that the regimes classification is sensitive to changes in the interest rate until some level and that the prevailing interest rate in Cape Verde is relatively high. This fact is due to the structure of the national financial market and the weak inter savings. In the second regime, the results from the impulse and response functions showed themselves coherents to the conventional theory, in the sense that a positive shock in the interest rates causes a reduction in the production and prices level. On the other hand, the obtained results from regime 1 are different, principally for the IPC response to a shock in the interest rate, once that this shock causes an increase in this variable. The introduction of the exchange rate in the model, caused a reduction on the impact of the Txjur on the IPC on the regime 1, when comparing to the previous model. Another registered alteration on the results was that the duration of the negative effect caused by the positive shock on the GDP appeared to be lower in both regimes. / O presente trabalho teve como intuito investigar aspectos importantes sobre a política monetária em Cabo Verde e sua transmissão à economia, durante o período 1991/2011 com dados trimestrais. Entre eles figuram o produto interno bruto e o índice de preços como variáveis metas, as taxas ativas para operações a 91 dias como instrumento de política monetária e por fim a o índice de câmbio efetivo nominal do BCV como o objetivo intermediário da política monetária. A metodologia empregada foi o modelo VAR e o MS-VAR. Como resultado temos que a modificação de um modelo VAR para um MS-VAR, trouxe ganhos de informações por permitir certa não-linearidade no modelo. Para cada metodologia foi estimado dois modelos, sendo que a diferença é porque um deles não inclui o câmbio (modelo simples). Foram identificados dois regimes, sendo que o regime 2 mostrou ser mais persistente e verificou também a sua exclusividade durante todo o período 1993:1 a 2006:2 o que coincide com o período em que houve a separação das funções do banco central e comercial e a criação de duas instituições independentes, bem como a mudança no regime cambial, que ocorreu em 1998. Observou também que a classificação dos regimes é sensível a mudanças em até certo patamar na taxa de juros e que em Cabo Verde a taxa de juros a que prevalece é relativamente alta. Tal fato se deve a própria estrutura do mercado financeiro nacional e da fraca poupança interna. No segundo regime os resultados das funções impulso e respostas mostraram coerentes com a teoria convencional, no sentido de que choque positivo na taxa de juros leva a redução no produto e nível de preços. Já os resultados obtidos no regime 1 principalmente para a resposta do IPC a um choque na taxa de juro são diferentes, uma vez que tal choque leva a um aumento nessa variável. Ao introduzir o câmbio no modelo, fez com que no regime 1 o impacto da Txjur no IPC se reduza de 3 ponto percentual para 2,5 em relação ao modelo anterior. Outra alteração registrada nos resultados foi o tempo de duração do efeito negativo do choque positivo na taxa de juros sobre o PIB que mostrou ser menor em ambos os regimes.
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Měnová politika Arménské centrální banky / The Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of ArmeniaGevorgyan, Kristine January 2011 (has links)
My thesis titled The Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of Armenia starts with characteristics of Armenia, where I focus on economic attributes of the country, international conflicts and their effects on Armenia, population development, poverty and corruption. The second part is focused on economic development of Armenia, the country's employment rate, particular items of the balance of payments and international trade. Furthermore, this part also consists of information related to the development of Armenian currency and the country's foreign debt. The third, significant part of my thesis deals with the Central Bank of Armenia and Armenia's financial system, concentrating mainly on history and the present of the subject central bank. Later in this part, I inquire into Armenia's monetary policy, where I focus on its applied transmission mechanisms and the CBA's instruments.The final part of this thesis is about what effects the CBA has on Armenia's economic development. I look into effects of monetary policy on price level development and meeting the inflation objectives. The conclusion part summarizes and gathers all pieces of information I have obtained by studying numerous literature resources and conducting personal interviews with several representatives of the Armenian banking system.This part also summarizes benefits of the CBA and its effects on economic development of Armenia, credibility evaluation and effectiveness in the objectives.
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Determinants and transmission of monetary policy in China / Déterminants et transmission de la politique monétaire en ChineLunven, Sandrine 17 December 2015 (has links)
L’objectif est d’analyser les déterminants et les mécanismes de transmission de la politique monétaire en Chine au cours des deux décennies passées. Elle contribue à la littérature par le biais de deux nouvelles mesures de la politique monétaire en Chine, l'une combinant les instruments utilisés par la banque centrale et l'autre basée sur les discours de la banque centrale sur la politique monétaire. Ces deux approches permettent de prendre en compte le comportement complexe et adaptatif de la banque centrale. Ces mesures permettent de mettre en évidence des changements substantiels dans le style de la politique à partir de 2002, plus graduelle et agressive envers l’inflation, en lien avec le début du mandat du gouverneur Xiaochuan, le processus de libéralisation des taux d’intérêt et l’ouverture commerciale et financière de la Chine. De plus, l’estimation d’un modèle à choix discret révèle une politique monétaire caractérisée par une politique accommodante sur l’inflation avant 2002 et un ciblage implicite de l’inflation à partir de 2002, similaire à celles du G3 pré- et post-1979. Enfin, cette thèse analyse les facteurs expliquant la déformation de la courbe des taux obligataires en Chine au cours de la dernière décennie. Alors que le contrôle des taux d’intérêt peut entraver l’usage de la courbe de taux comme référence pour évaluer les actifs risqués, celle-ci évolue bien en lien avec les autres instruments, la situation macroéconomique en Chine et de plus en plus aux communications de la banque centrale. Enfin, nos analyses révèlent l’influence de la politique monétaire américaine sur celle de la Chine et sur l’évolution de la courbe de taux sur la décennie passée. / The objective of this thesis is to enhance the understanding of the determinants and the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in China over the last two decades. It contributes to the literature providing two new composite measures of monetary policy in China based on alternative approaches, one combining the large range of monetary policy instruments and the other based on central bank speeches. Both prove to be essential to take into account the complex and adaptive behavior of the People’s Bank of China (PBC). Our instrument-based monetary policy index emphasizes substantial changes in policy style towards smoother but more hawkish policy moves from 2002 onwards, consistent with the start of the mandate of Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, the interest rate liberalization process and the increasing trade and financial opening. Moreover, the estimation of a discrete-choice model implies a conduct of monetary policy characterized by an inflation-accommodating policy before 2002 and an implicit inflation targeting from 2002 onwards, which respectively resembles that of pre-1979 and post-1979 policy of the G3. Our thesis examines the deformation of the bond yield curve over the last decade to evaluate monetary policy transmission mechanisms. While regulated interest rates can hamper the use of the yield curve as benchmark for pricing risk, the latter moves in line with the other instruments, the macroeconomic situation, and increasingly to central bank communication, a crucial step toward a market oriented system. Finally, US monetary policy significantly affects monetary policy determinants and transmission mechanisms in China, particularly from its WTO accession in 2001.
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Разработка методов повышения точности преобразователей вращательного движения в поступательное для систем отсчета перемещений рабочих органов станков с ЧПУ : магистерская диссертация / Development of methods for precision improvement of rotary motion converters into translational motion of reference systems for the movement of movable operating element of CNC machinesТулепова, К. В., Tulepova, K. V. January 2022 (has links)
В данной магистерской диссертации представлены результаты разработки методов повышения точности преобразователей вращательного движения в поступательное для систем отсчета перемещения рабочих органов станков с ЧПУ, что и является целью выпускной квалификационной работы. Актуальность темы обусловлена тем, что точность машин и механизмов является основной характеристикой их качества. Традиционные механические передачи (зубчатые, реечные и др.) имеют широкое применение во всех отраслях машиностроения. Требования к точности изготавливаемых деталей существенно ужесточаются, поэтому необходимо непрерывно совершенствовать методы повышения точности передач. Научная новизна обусловлена разработкой новых методов повышения точности систем отсчета перемещений путем уменьшения или ликвидирования кинематических погрешностей и погрешностей от износа преобразователей вращательного движения в поступательное. Рассмотрены элементы, применяемые при построении современных систем отсчета перемещений и возникающие в них погрешности. Проведен анализ существующих методов уменьшения кинематических погрешностей и погрешностей от износа преобразователей вращательного движения в поступательное. На его основе разработаны: метод отсчета перемещений рабочего органа станка с компенсацией погрешностей ходового винта; метод снижения износа передачи винт-гайка скольжения; метод снижения износа передачи винт-гайка качения; метод отсчета перемещений рабочего органа станка с коррекцией кинематических погрешностей рейки; метод снижения износа зубчато-реечной передачи; насос, предназначенный для использования при реализации перечисленных методов. В ходе работы над магистерской диссертацией было подано шесть заявок на изобретения. В результате было получено пять патентов: патент на изобретение №2750575 «Насос шестеренный реверсивный», патент на изобретение №2756797 «Передача винт-гайка качения», патент на изобретение №2764105 «Зубчато-реечный привод подачи металлорежущего станка с ЧПУ», патент на изобретение №2768807 «Устройство отсчета перемещений рабочего органа машины с ходовым винтом» и патент на изобретение №2767381 «Передача винт гайка скольжения». На рассмотрении в ФИПС находится заявка на изобретение №2021114570 «Зубчато-реечный привод подачи рабочего органа тяжелого крупногабаритного металлорежущего станка». / This master's thesis presents the results of the development of methods for precision improvement of reference systems for the movement of movable operating element of CNC machines, which is the purpose of the final qualifying work. The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the precision of machines and mechanisms is the main characteristic of their quality. Traditional mechanical gears (gear, rack and pinion, etc.) are widely used in all branches of mechanical engineering. The requirements for the precision of manufactured parts are significantly tightened, so it is necessary to continuously improve methods for improving the precision of transmissions. The scientific novelty is due to the development of new methods for improving the precision of displacement reference systems by reducing or eliminating kinematic errors and errors from wear of rotary motion converters to translational. The elements used in the construction of modern displacement reference systems and the errors arising in them are considered. The analysis of existing methods for reducing kinematic errors and errors from wear of rotary motion converters to translational motion is carried out. Based on it, the following methods have been developed: the method of counting the movements of the movement of movable operating element of the machine with compensation of errors of the lead screw; the method of reducing the wear of the transmission screw-nut sliding; the method of reducing the wear of the rolling screw-nut transmission; the method of counting the movements of the movement of movable operating element of the machine with correction of kinematic errors of the rail; the method of reducing the wear of rack and pinion transmission; the pump, designed for use in the implementation of the above-mentioned methods. During the work on the master's thesis, six applications for inventions were submitted. As a result, five patents were obtained: patent for invention No. 2750575 "Reversible gear pump", patent for invention No. 2756797 "Rolling screw-nut transmission", patent for invention No. 2764105 "Rack-and-pinion feeding drive of CNC metal cutting machine", patent for invention No. 2768807 "Device for counting the movements of the operating member of a machine with a drive screw" and patent for invention No. 2767381 "Sliding screw-nut gearing". The application for invention No. 2021114570 "Rack-and-pinion feeding drive of the operating member of a heavy large-sized metal-cutting machine" is under consideration in the federal institute of industrial property.
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Μελέτη και προσδιορισμός του συντελεστή Κ της κατανομής Rice για ασύρματα κανάλια σε εσωτερικούς και εξωτερικούς χώρουςΜαλακάτας, Κωνσταντίνος-Επαμεινώνδας 09 October 2014 (has links)
Σκοπός της παρούσας διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι η μελέτη και ο προσδιορισμός, θεωρητικός και πειραματικός, του συντελεστή Κ της Rician κατανομής σε ένα κανάλι στα 2.4 GHz. Η κατανομή Rice χρησιμοποιείται για την περιγραφή του πλάτους του λαμβανόμενου σήματος σε ένα κανάλι μετάδοσης με ισχυρή επίδραση οπτικής επαφής (Line-of-Sight) μεταξύ κεραίας πομπού και δέκτη. Ο συντελεστής Κ Rice εκφράζει τον λόγο της συνεισφοράς της ισχύος της απευθείας συνιστώσας του σήματος ως προς την συνολική λαμβανόμενη ισχύ λόγω φαινομένων διάχυσης. Χρησιμοποιείται για τον χαρακτηρισμό του καναλιού καθώς και τον υπολογισμό του BER (bit-error-ratio) και της πλέον σημαντικής παραμέτρου των τηλεπικοινωνιών SNR (Signal-to-Noise-Ratio), δηλαδή του λόγου σήματος προς θόρυβο.
Στο 1ο κεφάλαιο αναλύονται και περιγράφονται μερικές από τις σημαντικότερες τεχνολογίες ασυρμάτων δικτύων, από την πρώτη στιγμή της εμφάνισής τους (δίκτυα 1ης και 2ης γενιάς) έως τα πιο σύγχρονα δίκτυα 3ης και 4ης γενιάς, και παρουσιάζονται οι ζώνες συχνοτήτων που καταλαμβάνουν αυτές οι τεχνολογίες στο διαθέσιμο ηλεκτρομαγνητικό φάσμα.
Στο 2ο κεφάλαιο μελετώνται οι 3 βασικότεροι μηχανισμοί διάδοσης του ηλεκτρομαγνητικού κύματος μέσα σε ένα ασύρματο κανάλι (ανάκλαση, περίθλαση, σκέδαση), περιγράφονται οι τύποι των απωλειών που υφίσταται ένα σήμα κατά την μετάδοση του και τα φαινόμενα των διαλείψεων, που παρατηρούνται πολύ έντονα σε ένα κινητό και μεταβαλλόμενο περιβάλλον διάδοσης.
Στο 3ο κεφάλαιο γίνεται περιγραφή του μοντέλου ηλεκτρομαγνητικής μετάδοσης κατά Rice, δηλαδή όταν η απευθείας συνιστώσα του σήματος είναι η ισχυρότερη διαδρομή που ακολουθεί το εκπεμπόμενο σήμα κατά την πορεία του μέχρι τον δέκτη (LoS). Αναλύεται η σημαντικότερη παράμετρος αυτού του τύπου μετάδοσης, δηλαδή ο συντελεστής Κ, και παρουσιάζονται διάφορες μέθοδοι προσδιορισμού του τόσο θεωρητικά όσο και πειραματικά.
Στο 4ο κεφάλαιο παρουσιάζονται τα αποτελέσματα των πειραματικών μας μετρήσεων σε διάφορες τοπολογίες μετάδοσης με LoS για ένα δίκτυο Wi-Fi, δηλαδή για συχνότητα λειτουργίας στα 2.4 GHz. Για κάθε τοπολογία, περιγράφεται πλήρως το περιβάλλον μετάδοσης καθώς και ολόκληρη η διαδικασία εκπόνησης των μετρήσεων (μετρητικά όργανα, απαραίτητο λογισμικό, τυχόν προσεγγίσεις κτλ.).
Τέλος, στο 5ο και τελευταίο κεφάλαιο, παρουσιάζεται μια μέθοδος υπολογισμού του συντελεστή Κ μέσω των μετρήσεων και με τη βοήθεια του μοντέλου ελευθέρου χώρου, που χρησιμοποιείται για τον υπολογισμό των συνολικών απωλειών διαδρομής του σήματος. Τα αποτελέσματα των υπολογισμών χρησιμοποιήθηκαν, με την βοήθεια του Matlab, για την κατασκευή της CDF των τιμών του Κ αλλά και της γραφικής παράστασης της μεταβολής του Κ συναρτήσει της απόστασης. Οι εμπειρικές CDF συγκριθήκαν και προσεγγιστήκαν με γνωστές θεωρητικές CDF, και η συνάρτηση της μεταβολής του Κ με την απόσταση προσεγγίστηκε με όρους Goodness of Fit με την βοήθεια της γενικής μορφής γνωστών συναρτήσεων. Κλείνοντας, στην τελευταία παράγραφο της εργασίας αφήνεται περιθώριο και δίνεται τροφή για μελλοντική εργασία πάνω στην μελέτη και τον προσδιορισμό του συντελεστή Κ της Rice τόσο για εσωτερικούς όσο και για εξωτερικούς χώρους. / The main purpose of this thesis, is the analysis and estimation , theoretical and empirical, of the Rician K factor for a wireless channel at 2.4 GHz. The Rician power density function is used to describe the amplitude of the received signal when there is a strong LOS component. The Rician K factor expresses the ratio of the power component due to LOS signal propagation and the received signal power due to diffuse components (reflection, scattering, diffraction etc.). It is commonly used for the channel's characterization and the estimation of BER (bit error rate) and SNR (signal to noise ratio), a very important parameter for telecommunications.
In the 1st chapter, some of the most important wireless systems are described, since their very first appearance (1G & 2G networks) until the latest 3rd and 4rth generation systems. We also present the current frequency bands and how they are spread at the given electromagnetic spectrum.
In the 2nd chapter, the 3 basic propagation mechanisms (reflection, scattering, diffraction) are studied. In addition, we describe all types of signal attenuation within a wireless channel and the fading phenomena that are so commonly seen in mobile and continuously changing propagation environments.
In the 3rd chapter, the Rician model of electromagnetic propagation, where LOS is the strongest path of signal components, is analyzed. The most important parameter of this propagation type, the Rician K factor, is also studied. Therefore, various methods of theoretical and empirical estimation of the K factor are presented.
In the 4rth chapter, we include the results of our measurements in various LOS propagation topologies for a Wi-Fi system at 2.4 GHz. For each measurement topology, the propagation environment as well as the entire measurement procedure, are thoroughly described.
Lastly, in the 5th and final chapter, a K factor estimation method based on the empirical set of data and the Free Space Model, used for the average path loss calculation, is presented. The results of our measurements via the help of the Matlab software were used in order to plot the CDF of K values as well as the K values versus d (distance) curve. Using curve fitting methods, the empirical CDFs and plots were compared to theoretical ones in terms of Goodness of Fit. In the closing section, possible future research in the aforementioned fields is proposed.
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[en] ESSAYS ON MONETARY ECONOMICS AND BANKING / [pt] ENSAIOS SOBRE ECONOMIA MONETÁRIA E BANCÁRIABRUNO VINICIUS SANCHES PERDIGAO 26 December 2018 (has links)
[pt] Essa tese é composta por 3 artigos. O primeiro estuda a relação entre política monetária e a disponibilidade de crédito direcionado. Com esse propósito, estimamos as respostas de variáveis macroeconômicas setoriais a choques de política monetária identificados com restrições de sinal e restrições de igualdade em um factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR). Nossos resultados mostram que a política monetária perde potência em setores com maior proporção de crédito direcionado. O segundo artigo propõe a introdução de novas restrições para identificação de choques de política monetária. Em particular, além das restrições de sinal usuais sobre taxas de juros e inflação, nós propomos como restrição de identificação que a política monetária não tenha efeitos reais dez anos após o choque. Esse artigo apresenta evidências
de que essa restrição é consistente com o modelo novo-keynesiano canônico de 3 equações e com o modelo proposto por Smets and Wouters (2007). Em uma aplicação empírica simples, esse artigo mostra que essa restrição pode ser importante para recuperar efeitos reais de política monetária. O terceiro artigo mostra que bancos estrangeiros podem mitigar barreiras informacionais vis-à-vis bancos privados nacionais a partir da observação do comportamento de seus pares. Dado um pedido de empréstimo por parte
de uma firma pequena ou média, a existência de empréstimos bancários passados desta firma com bancos privados nacionais constitui um preditor mais importante da probabilidade de que o empréstimo seja concedido para bancos estrangeiros, em comparação a bancos privados nacionais. Nossos resultados
são compatíveis com a visão de que a maior habilidade de bancos privados nacionais em aferir o risco de crédito de firmas pouco transparentes torna os empréstimos anteriores com esses bancos um sinal mais valioso para bancos estrangeiros. / [en] This thesis is composed of three papers. The first one studies the relation between monetary policy power and the availability of earmarked loans. To that end, we estimate the responses of sectoral macroeconomic
variables to monetary policy shocks identified through sign and equality restrictions in a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR). We find that monetary policy loses power in sectors with a larger share of earmarked loans among its bank debt. The second paper proposes the introduction of new restrictions to identify monetary policy shocks in SVARs. In particular, besides standard sign restrictions on interest rates and inflation, we propose to add as an identification restriction the inability of monetary policy to have real
effects ten years after the shock. This paper presents evidence of the model consistency of this neutrality restriction both for the canonical 3-equation new keynesian model and the Smets and Wouters (2007) model. In a simple empirical application, this paper shows that this restriction may be important to recover real effects of monetary policy. The third paper shows that foreign banks can mitigate informational barriers vis-a-vis private domestic banks by observing their peers behavior. Conditional on a loan application being filed by a SME firm, we find that the existence of past loans of this firm with private domestic banks constitute a more important predictor that a loan will be granted by foreign banks in comparison to private domestic banks. Our results are compatible with the view that the
higher ability of private domestic banks to access informationally opaque business credit risks makes past loans with these banks a more valuable signal for foreign lenders.
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Cambios en la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe a raíz de la crisis : vulnerabilidades y desafíos / Changes in the transmission of economic shocks from United States to Latin America and the Caribbean in the context of the economic crisis : vulnerabilities and challenges / Changements dans la transmission de chocs des Etats-Unis à l'Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe suite à la crise économique internationale : vulnérabilités et enjeuxMartínez Alfonso, Laneydi 15 July 2015 (has links)
Traditionnellement, les mouvements cycliques de l’économie Etats-Unienne ont été déterminants dans la croissance globale, et particulièrement dans l´Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe, étant donné le rôle indiscutable joué par ce pays en tant que moteur de l’économie internationale depuis la fin de la Seconde guerre mondiale. Le début du XXIe siècle et spécialement la récente crise économique (2007-2009) à donné lieu à un intense débat international autour du découplage («decoupling» en anglais). Les épisodes relativement courts de désynchronisation économique dans certains zones géographiques durant la crise a été sans précédent, et a ouvert une fenêtre pour l'étude de l'impact (présent et/ou en devenir) des changements géoéconomiques et géopolitiques récents sur la scène internationale. Cette thèse cherche évaluer les changements dans la transmission de chocs des Etats Unis vers l’Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe, à la lumière de la récente crise économique internationale. Les Etats-Unis maintiennent une double dimension ou une dualité dans son importance économique pour l'Amérique Latine et les Caraïbes: d'abord, en tant que principal acteur de l'hémisphère et le principal partenaire commercial, et d'autre part, pour leur rôle dans l'architecture monétaire et financière internationale. La préservation de son hégémonie économique sur la région repose principalement sur ce dernier pilier, sur lequel la région a peu de capacité d'influence. Cela confirme encore la centralité économique des États-Unis dans la région, en dépit des changements majeurs dans les dynamiques économiques bilatérales, basées sur l´influence, de plus en plus hétérogènes, des chocs originaires de ce pays. / Historically, United States has been considered the undisputed engine of the world economy; therefore, the cyclical movements of its economy have been crucial to global growth, particularly to Latin America and the Caribbean. Since the beginning of XXI century, particularly following the recent economic crisis (2007-2009), a number of major changes has emerged, in the global geopolitical and geo-economic context; marked by new dynamics of "North-South” and "South –South” interrelations. These changes in conjunction with the emergence of the international debate on the theory of “decoupling", has opened a window to study the influence of the context of the recent global crisis on the economic synchronization and the transmission of shocks from United States to Latin America and the Caribbean. This research assesses the changes in the transmission of economic shocks from US to the region, in the context of the recent international crisis. Major changes are verified in the relative importance of the trade channel that links United States to Latin America and the Caribbean due to a substantial increase in the commercial ties of the region with China; at the same time, the reinforcement of the monetary and financial channel in the transmission of shocks. The role of the United States in the current international monetary and financial architecture continues to be the essential foundation that preserves its economic centrality to Latin America and the Caribbean, in an increasingly heterogeneous region in its responses to shocks originated in the US economy. / Históricamente, Estados Unidos ha sido considerado el motor indiscutible de la economía mundial, así,los movimientos cíclicos de su economía han sido determinantes en el crecimiento global y, en particular, en América Latina y el Caribe. Desde inicios del siglo XXI y, en particular, a raíz de la recientecrisis económica (2007-2009), han emergido un conjunto de cambios trascendentales en el contexto geopolítico y geoeconómico mundial; a raíz de nuevas dinámicas de interrelación “Norte-Sur” y “Sur-Sur”. Dichos cambios, unidos a la emergencia del debate internacional sobre la teoría del “desacoplamiento”, han abierto una ventana al estudio de la influencia del contexto de la reciente crisis económica internacional sobre la sincronización económica y la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe. La presente investigación evalúa cambios en la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia la región en el contexto de la reciente crisis económica internacional.Se verifican modificaciones en la relevancia relativa del canal comercial en la transmisión desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe debido al incremento sustancial de los vínculos comerciales con China; al mismo tiempo y un reforzamiento del canal monetario-financiero en la transmisión de shocks. El rol de Estados Unidos en la actual arquitectura monetario-financiera internacional se erige en el pilar fundamental que continúa privilegiando su centralidad económica en una región cada vez más heterogénea en su respuesta shocks originados en este país.
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