京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第24257号 / 情博第801号 / 新制||情||135(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科知能情報学専攻 / (主査)教授 鹿島 久嗣, 教授 山本 章博, 教授 下平 英寿 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM

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In this thesis, we analyze treatment effect estimate in randomized clinical studies. Treatment effect estimates are constructed on the basis of three models. The first part of this thesis is about the behaviour of these estimates when the treatment effects vary with patients. We find out that all types of estimates are consistent and we derived their asymptotic distribution. The estimates are compared by their asymptotic variances. The theoretical conclusions are confirmed by a simulation study. The second part describes the case where measurements of baseline and final values contain an error. Two estimates are analyzed. We find out that both estimates are consistent. We derive their asymptotic distribution and compare their variances.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como o nível de recursos escolares e a sua distribuição entre os estudantes afetam o desempenho acadêmico dos alunos brasileiros da rede pública de ensino. Para atingir tal objetivo, utilizou-se duas óticas de análise: uma análise descritiva e uma análise econométrica, ambas com base em dados do Censo Escolar e da Prova Brasil de 2013. Sob a ótica descritiva, parte-se da constatação de que as escolas públicas de Ensino Fundamental apresentam desigualdades nos patamares de recursos escolares conforme a região em que a escola se localiza. Em especial, as crianças de regiões mais empobrecidas tendem a enfrentar restrições de oferta de escolas públicas com maiores dotações de equipamentos pedagógicos, de instalações e de qualificação docente. A fim de avaliar apropriadamente a relação entre os recursos escolares e os resultados acadêmicos dos alunos no contexto brasileiro, tal distribuição não aleatória de recursos escolares entre os alunos foi considerada na análise econométrica. Nesta ótica de análise, por sua vez, foi estimado um modelo de correção em dois estágios que identificou os efeitos dos recursos escolares nas notas de Português e de Matemática dos alunos de 5º ano/4ª série do Ensino Fundamental das escolas públicas brasileiras, considerando a restrição de oferta de escolas com maior nível de recursos por meio do emprego de variável instrumental. Os resultados encontrados apontaram para a existência do efeito positivo que escolas mais bem equipadas em termos de recursos escolares têm sobre o desempenho escolar dos alunos, sendo esse efeito maior para as notas de Matemática e para a subpopulação de alunos oriundos de municípios com maior restrição de oferta de escola de alto nível de recursos. / The aim of this study is to analyze how the level of school resources and its distribution among the students affect the academic performance of Brazilian students from public schools. To achieve this goal, we used two analytical forms: a descriptive and an econometric analysis, both based in the Brazilian School Census and Prova Brasil data of 2013. Under the descriptive point of view, it is observed that public schools of Ensino Fundamental have inequalities in school resource levels depending on the region where the school is located. In particular, children from the poorest regions tend to face supply constraints of public schools with larger endowments of teaching equipment, facilities and teaching qualification. In order to properly evaluate the relationship between school resources and academic achievement of students in the Brazilian context, such non-random distribution of school resources among students was considered in the econometric analysis. In this analytical form, in its turn, a two-step correction model was estimated which identified the effects of school resources in the results of test scores in Portuguese and Math of 5th year/4th grade students of Ensino Fundamental education in Brazilian public schools, accounting for the supply restriction of schools with high level of resources using an instrumental variable. The findings pointed to the existence of the positive effect that the best equipped schools in terms of school resources have on school performance of students. This effect is particularly greater in Math scores and for the subpopulation of students from municipalities with the highest supply restriction of high quality schools.

Background: Response bias can distort treatment effect estimates and inferences in clinical trials. Although prevention, quantification, and adjustments have been developed, current methods are not applicable when subject-level reliability is used as the measure of response bias. Thus, the objective of the current study is to develop, test, and recommend a series of bias correction strategies for use in these cases. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation and logistic regression modeling were used to develop the strategies, examining the collective impact of sample size (N), effect size (ES), reliability distribution, and response style on estimating the treatment effect size in a series of hypothetical clinical trials. The strategies included a linear (LW), quadratic (QW), or cubic weight (CW) applied to the subject-level reliability; a reliability threshold (%); or a combination of the two (W-%). Bias and percent relative root mean square error (RRMSE (%)) were calculated for each treatment effect estimate and RRMSE (%) was compared to inform the bias correction recommendations. Results: The following recommendations are made for each N and ES combination: N=200/ES=small: no adjustment, N=200/ES=medium: 40%-LW, N=200/ES=large: 40%-QW, N=2000/ES=small: 40%-LW, N=2000/ES=medium: 55%-CW, N=2000/ES=large: 75%-CW, N=20000/ES=small: 70%-CW, N=20000/ES=medium: 85%-CW, N=20000/ES=large: 95%-CW. Conclusion: Employing these bias correction strategies in clinical trials where subject-level reliability can be calculated will decrease error and increase accuracy of estimates and validity of inferences.

Constraint-Induced Aphasia Therapy (CIAT) är en gruppbehandling för personer med afasi. Tidigare forskning kring CIAT har ansetts otillräcklig gällande dess långsiktiga effekt, dess effekt vid lindrig afasi och dess effekt på kommunikativ delaktighet. Föreliggande studie är en multipel fallstudie som syftar till att undersöka CIAT:s kort- och långsiktiga effekt på språk och kommunikation vid lindrig afasi. Fyra personer med kronisk afasi deltog i CIAT under två veckor. Språkfunktioner och funktionell kommunikation bedömdes före behandling (T1), efter behandling (T2) och vid uppföljning efter 3 månader (T3). Bedömningarna kompletterades av intervjuer med deltagarna och deras närstående. Vid T2 visade samtliga behandlingsdeltagare övervägande förbättrade språkliga funktioner. Vidare skattade 4/4 deltagare och samtliga närstående en förbättring av funktionell kommunikation. Vid T3 var förbättringen övervägande stabil. Skillnader i poängförbättring mellan bedömningarna antydde en behandlingseffekt, vilket stöddes av analys med teckentest. Resultat från intervjuer gav stöd för de förbättrade resultaten och kan anses öka den ekologiska validiteten. Resultaten tyder på att CIAT kan ha en kort- och långsiktig effekt på språk och kommunikation vid lindrig grad av afasi. Föreliggande studie indikerar därmed att CIAT kan vara gynnsamt för denna patientgrupp. Vidare analys krävs dock för att utesluta en effekt av upprepad testning. Med hänsyn till antalet personer som drabbas av afasi varje år och de betydande psykosociala konsekvenser afasi kan innebära bör framtida forskning utreda ytterligare hur behandling kan förbättra såväl språkliga funktioner som kommunikativ delaktighet i vardagen. / Constraint-Induced Aphasia Therapy (CIAT) is a group therapy for people with aphasia. The therapy’s effectiveness, its effect in milder aphasia and its long-term effect has not been thoroughly investigated in previous studies. This multiple case study aims to assess short- and long-term effect of CIAT on language functions and functional communication in mild aphasia. Four people with chronic aphasia received CIAT over two weeks. Language functions and functional communication was assessed prior therapy (T1), after therapy (T2) and at a 3 month follow-up (T3). In addition to assessments, interviews with participants and their family members were conducted. At T2 all participants showed mainly improved language functions. In addition, 4/4 participants and all family members rated an improvement of functional communication. Results were mainly stable at T3. Differences in improvement when comparing assessments indicated a treatment effect, which was supported by analysis with a sign test. Results from interviews supported the improved results on language tests and could be regarded as increasing the ecological validity. Results indicate a positive and lasting effect on language and communication in milder aphasia. The present study thus suggests that CIAT could be beneficial to this patient group. However, further analyses are required to rule out the possibility of a practice effect. Considering the number of people with aphasia and the psychosocial impact of aphasia, future research should further investigate how therapy could improve linguistic ability as well as communicative participation.

This thesis has two objectives in the field of policy evaluation that recently received extensive attention from international science and technology community. First, an attempt is made to examine, in the Turkish context, the effects of public subsidies on private research and development (R&amp / D), selecting and implementing a suitable empirical methodology. Second, in the context of emerging economies, it aims to contribute to the existing impact analysis literature by providing an evaluation study for the period during which public incentives in business R&amp / D have gained momentum with increased resources for diversified policy measures in Turkey since 2004. In the dissertation, three quantitative studies examining the causal relations between direct public support and private R&amp / D are presented. The first study, which uses the Tobit model, indicates that receiving a subsidy is an important determinant of private R&amp / D intensity. In the second study, adopting the propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods and using a panel dataset, effectiveness of receiving a grant from the TUBITAK industrial R&amp / D support program is examined. The results indicate program-induced input additionality in (i) R&amp / D personnel, (ii) R&amp / D intensity and (iii) R&amp / D expenditure per employee of the beneficiary firms during 2004-2006. The analysis with the propensity score matching using the data from Turkish Community Innovation Survey 2006 is repeated and similar results are obtained. The results validate that engagement in public R&amp / D programs in Turkey is beneficial for private R&amp / D. Sufficient evidence was obtained to conclude that TUBITAK&rsquo / s industrial R&amp / D project support program has encouraged most private firms to increase their R&amp / D spending and R&amp / D personnel in the period of 2003-2006.

An awareness of the effect of agricultural production on the environment has led to the development of policies to mitigate its adverse effects. This dissertation provides analyses of agri-environmental policies designed to protect environmental assets, as well as analytical decision-making tools useful for conducting policy evaluations. The first essay employs propensity score matching techniques to estimate the additionality of federal agricultural conservation programs for six conservation practices for farmers in Ohio. Additionality is an important measure of the effectiveness of conservation programs in inducing an increase in the conservation effort of farmers. Results suggest that additionality is positive and statistically significant for all six conservation practices. However, while programs achieve positive additionality for all practice types, a comparison between conservation practices reveals that certain practice types achieve higher percent additionality than others. Such results, coupled with information on the environmental benefits obtained per practice, could prove useful to program managers for improving the effectiveness of conservation programs. The second essay develops a new methodology to decompose the additionality measure into the two effects induced by conservation programs: expansion versus the new adoption of conservation practices. To do so, the relative contributions of two types of farmers, prior-adopters and new-adopters, are estimated. Results of the decomposition reveal that the additionality for prior-adopters is not significant for all practice types. Instead, additional conservation effort comes from new-adopters adopting new practices. Second, decomposition estimates suggest that practice types with a greater fraction of enrolled farmers that are new-adopters achieve greater percent additionality than those with greater proportions of prior-adopters. This suggests that a farmers? history in conservation adoption has a significant influence on additionality levels. The final essay analyzes the effect of recent instream flow diversion-guidelines on agricultural water security and streamflows within a decentralized water management regime. Spatially-explicit economic and hydrologic models are integrated to evaluate the tradeoffs between salmon bypass-flows and agricultural water security for three different diversion-guidelines within a northern-California watershed. Results indicate that the most restrictive diversion-guideline provides the greatest protection of bypass-flow days within smaller watersheds; however, within larger watersheds protection is not as significant. Water security, however, decreases sharply under the strict and moderate diversion-guidelines, especially during dry years. Overall, results indicate that greater focus should be given to protecting streamflows in the smallest watersheds, and meeting human water needs during dry years, when agricultural water security is impacted the most.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como o nível de recursos escolares e a sua distribuição entre os estudantes afetam o desempenho acadêmico dos alunos brasileiros da rede pública de ensino. Para atingir tal objetivo, utilizou-se duas óticas de análise: uma análise descritiva e uma análise econométrica, ambas com base em dados do Censo Escolar e da Prova Brasil de 2013. Sob a ótica descritiva, parte-se da constatação de que as escolas públicas de Ensino Fundamental apresentam desigualdades nos patamares de recursos escolares conforme a região em que a escola se localiza. Em especial, as crianças de regiões mais empobrecidas tendem a enfrentar restrições de oferta de escolas públicas com maiores dotações de equipamentos pedagógicos, de instalações e de qualificação docente. A fim de avaliar apropriadamente a relação entre os recursos escolares e os resultados acadêmicos dos alunos no contexto brasileiro, tal distribuição não aleatória de recursos escolares entre os alunos foi considerada na análise econométrica. Nesta ótica de análise, por sua vez, foi estimado um modelo de correção em dois estágios que identificou os efeitos dos recursos escolares nas notas de Português e de Matemática dos alunos de 5º ano/4ª série do Ensino Fundamental das escolas públicas brasileiras, considerando a restrição de oferta de escolas com maior nível de recursos por meio do emprego de variável instrumental. Os resultados encontrados apontaram para a existência do efeito positivo que escolas mais bem equipadas em termos de recursos escolares têm sobre o desempenho escolar dos alunos, sendo esse efeito maior para as notas de Matemática e para a subpopulação de alunos oriundos de municípios com maior restrição de oferta de escola de alto nível de recursos. / The aim of this study is to analyze how the level of school resources and its distribution among the students affect the academic performance of Brazilian students from public schools. To achieve this goal, we used two analytical forms: a descriptive and an econometric analysis, both based in the Brazilian School Census and Prova Brasil data of 2013. Under the descriptive point of view, it is observed that public schools of Ensino Fundamental have inequalities in school resource levels depending on the region where the school is located. In particular, children from the poorest regions tend to face supply constraints of public schools with larger endowments of teaching equipment, facilities and teaching qualification. In order to properly evaluate the relationship between school resources and academic achievement of students in the Brazilian context, such non-random distribution of school resources among students was considered in the econometric analysis. In this analytical form, in its turn, a two-step correction model was estimated which identified the effects of school resources in the results of test scores in Portuguese and Math of 5th year/4th grade students of Ensino Fundamental education in Brazilian public schools, accounting for the supply restriction of schools with high level of resources using an instrumental variable. The findings pointed to the existence of the positive effect that the best equipped schools in terms of school resources have on school performance of students. This effect is particularly greater in Math scores and for the subpopulation of students from municipalities with the highest supply restriction of high quality schools.