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This bachelor thesis examines how the trade flow of Turkey would change if the country becomes a member in the EU. This is done by analysing the Turkish trade flow with the EU and ROW over the period 1995 – 2005. The main question is if trade creation and trade diversion occurs? The model used in this paper is a gravity model influenced by Soloaga and Winters (2000) gravity model. To be able to answer the purpose of this paper we used a crosssectional regression and base our analysis on our results. The conclusion of this paper is that Turkey’s trade flow with the EU will increase if full-membership is accomplished. This leads to trade diversion and trade creation towards the other members-states within EU. We see Turkey as the key to the door for Middle Eastern countries and the EU; this implies that if Turkey becomes a member-state in EU, the trade could increase between these two continents. / Denna kandidatuppsats undersöker huruvida Turkiets handelsflöde kan förändras av ett eventuellt Europeiskt medlemskap. Det är gjort genom att analysera Turkiets handelstrend under perioden 1995 – 2005. Huvudfrågan är huruvida handelsfördelning och handelsökning sker? Modellen som används i uppsatsen är en gravitations modell influerad av Soloaga och Winters (2000) gravitations modell. För att kunna besvara syftet i uppsatsen har vi använt oss av en tvärsnittsregression och baserat analysen på resultaten. Sammanfattningsvis ser man att Turkiets handelsflöde med EU ökar av ett eventuellt medlemskap i EU. Detta leder till handelsökning samt handelsfördelning gentemot nuvarande medlemmar. Vi anser även att Turkiet är nyckeln Mellanöstern samt EU, vilket innebär att fullt medlemskap ökar handeln mellan dessa två kontinenter.

<p>This bachelor thesis examines how the trade flow of Turkey would change if the country becomes a member in the EU. This is done by analysing the Turkish trade flow with the EU and ROW over the period 1995 – 2005. The main question is if trade creation and trade diversion occurs?</p><p>The model used in this paper is a gravity model influenced by Soloaga and Winters (2000) gravity model. To be able to answer the purpose of this paper we used a crosssectional regression and base our analysis on our results.</p><p>The conclusion of this paper is that Turkey’s trade flow with the EU will increase if full-membership is accomplished. This leads to trade diversion and trade creation towards the other members-states within EU. We see Turkey as the key to the door for Middle Eastern countries and the EU; this implies that if Turkey becomes a member-state in EU, the trade could increase between these two continents.</p> / <p>Denna kandidatuppsats undersöker huruvida Turkiets handelsflöde kan förändras av ett eventuellt Europeiskt medlemskap. Det är gjort genom att analysera Turkiets handelstrend under perioden 1995 – 2005. Huvudfrågan är huruvida handelsfördelning och handelsökning sker?</p><p>Modellen som används i uppsatsen är en gravitations modell influerad av Soloaga och Winters (2000) gravitations modell. För att kunna besvara syftet i uppsatsen har vi använt oss av en tvärsnittsregression och baserat analysen på resultaten.</p><p>Sammanfattningsvis ser man att Turkiets handelsflöde med EU ökar av ett eventuellt medlemskap i EU. Detta leder till handelsökning samt handelsfördelning gentemot nuvarande medlemmar. Vi anser även att Turkiet är nyckeln Mellanöstern samt EU, vilket innebär att fullt medlemskap ökar handeln mellan dessa två kontinenter.</p>

The dissertation is about the impact of the European Union (EU) on the foreign policy of a candidate in the pre-accession period. More specifically, the research analyses the factors and processes that intervene between the EU power to generate change in Turkish foreign policy and Turkish national compliance with the EU conditions between 1997 and 2005 by way of analysing three cases: Turkish foreign policy towards Cyprus issue, Greek-Turkish bilateral problems in the Aegean Sea; and Turkey’s stance vis-à-vis the launch of the ESDP. Main question the research addresses is “why does a candidate choose to comply (or fail to comply) with the EU conditions in foreign policy?” In other words: “How (through what mechanisms) does the EU generate compliance with the EU conditions in foreign policy?” The dissertation approaches these questions through the perspective of the Europeanization literature and its conditionality school drawing on the Rational Choice Institutionalism. In accordance with this rationalist account, main argument the doctoral research intends to prove is that “the EU’s adaptational pressure on Turkey (operationalized as a function of clear/attainable membership perspective and credible conditionality policy) is a necessary yet not a sufficient condition for domestic compliance in foreign policy if the cost of compliance is high for the target government. In this respect, domestic actors’ strategic calculation is the ultimate determinant of the compliance degrees at the domestic level. In order to prove this core hypothesis, the research used theory testing process-tracing, longitudinal comparison of cases, counter-factual reasoning and the use of a control case. The evidence for testing the argument comes from the measurement of conditionality (measured as the linkage between a given foreign policy condition and membership-related reward) and domestic compliance (measured as foreign policy output ranging from rhetorical to behavioural change) through the content analysis of primary documents. This analysis is complemented with 33 semi-structured elite interviews. The dissertation by proving that the EU’s transformative power in foreign policy works through the cost and benefit calculation of the ruling party and by elaborating on the conditions under which the EU can interfere with this rational calculus (hence modify the opportunity structure for the target government), advances our understanding of the EU’s transformative power and contributes to the Accession Europeanization literature in general. Furthermore, the study provides additional empirical as well as theoretical in-depth case knowledge to the available literature on the Europeanization of Turkey and Turkish foreign policy. / Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This study analyses the possible impact of the European Union (EU) on the development of the relations between business interest groups and the government in Turkey, more precisely on the interventions of the business interest groups in domestic policy-making. Hence it deals with the links between the progress of the relationship between Turkey and the EU and the development of domestic interest group activity in Turkey. <p><p>The progress of Turkey’s relations with the EU enhanced the visibility of the Turkish Peak Business Organizations (PBOs) in representing Turkish business interests in Brussels. Moreover, the evolution of the activities of the PBOs, provides a broader understanding of the developments of the general characteristics of the relations between the government and business interest groups in Turkey. Hence the investigation focuses on the major Turkish PBOs.<p><p>We examine the relations of Turkish PBOs with the EU, essentially, on the basis of the observation of their transnational actions within the EU as well as their participation in financial and technical assistance programmes of the EU and in the joint institutional structures of the association regime between Turkey and the EU. By analysing these two dimensions we assess the repercussions of the socialization of the Turkish PBOs on their strategies of action in dealing with European Affairs, on discourses they adopted regarding domestic policy-making and on their organizational structure and policy agenda.<p><p>We elaborate our topic with reference to the Europeanization concept, which covers the examination of the consequences of the European governance on national systems. Through the Europeanization concept we observe the correlation between the progress of the Turkey-EU relations and the ongoing process of change in the patterns of interventions of the Turkish business interest groups in domestic policy-making. <p> / Doctorat en sciences politiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished