A combination of the urban heat island effect and a rising temperature baseline resulting from global climate change inequitably impacts socially vulnerable populations residing in urban areas. This dissertation examines distributional inequity of exposure to urban heat by socially disadvantaged groups and minorities in the context of climate justice. Using Cutter’s hazards-of-place model, variables indicative of social vulnerability and biophysical vulnerability are statistically tested for their associations. Biophysical vulnerability is conceptualized utilizing a urban heat risk index calculated from summer 2010 LANDSAT imagery to measure land surface temperature , structural density through the normalized difference built-up index, and vegetation abundance through the normalized difference vegetation index. A cross-section of twenty geographically distributed metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. are examined using census derived variables at the tract level. The results of bivariate correlation analysis, ordinary least squares regression, and spatial autoregression analysis indicate consistent and significant associations between greater social disadvantage and higher urban heat levels. Multilevel modeling is used to examine the relationship of MSA-level segregation with tract-level minority status and social disadvantage to higher levels of urban heat. Segregation has a significant but varied relationship with the variables, indicating that there are inconsistent associations with urban heat due to differing urban ecologies. Urban heat and social vulnerability present a varying landscape of thermal inequity in different urban areas, associated in many cases with residential segregation.

Urbanisation alters the hydrologic response of a catchment, resulting in increased runoff rates and volumes, and loss of infiltration and base flow. Quantification of uncertainties is important in hydrologic designs of urban infrastructure. Major sources of uncertainty in the Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty and, in the case of projections of future IDF relationships under climate change, uncertainty arising from use of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) and scenarios. The work presented in the thesis presents methodologies to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCMs using a Bayesian approach. High uncertainties in GEV parameters and return levels are observed at shorter durations for Bangalore City. Twenty six GCMs from the CMIP5 datasets, along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. Disaggregation of precipitation extremes from larger time scales to smaller time scales when the extremes are modeled with the GPD is burdened with difficulties arising from varying thresholds for different durations. In this study, the scale invariance theory is used to develop a disaggregation model for precipitation extremes exceeding specified thresholds. A scaling relationship is developed for a range of thresholds obtained from a set of quantiles of non-zero precipitation of different durations. The disaggregation model is applied to precipitation datasets of Berlin City, Germany and Bangalore City, India. From both the applications, it is observed that the uncertainty in the scaling exponent has a considerable effect on uncertainty in scaled parameters and return levels of shorter durations. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to obtain spatial distribution of return levels of precipitation extremes in urban areas and quantify the associated uncertainty. Applicability of the methodology is demonstrated with data from 19 telemetric rain gauge stations in Bangalore City, India. For this case study, it is inferred that the elevation and mean monsoon precipitation are the predominant covariates for annual maximum precipitation. For the monsoon maximum precipitation, it is observed that the geographic covariates dominate while for the summer maximum precipitation, elevation and mean summer precipitation are the predominant covariates. In this work, variation in the dependence structure of extreme precipitation within an urban area and its surrounding non-urban areas at various durations is studied. The Berlin City, Germany, with surrounding non-urban area is considered to demonstrate the methodology. For this case study, the hourly precipitation shows independence within the city even at small distances, whereas the daily precipitation shows a high degree of dependence. This dependence structure of the daily precipitation gets masked as more and more surrounding non-urban areas are included in the analysis. The geographical covariates are seen to be predominant within the city and the climatological covariates prevail when non-urban areas are added. These results suggest the importance of quantification of dependence structure of spatial precipitation at the sub-daily timescales, as well as the need to more precisely model spatial extremes within the urban areas. The work presented in this thesis thus contributes to quantification of uncertainty in precipitation extremes through developing methodologies for generating probabilistic future IDF relationships under climate change, spatial mapping of probabilistic return levels and modeling dependence structure of extreme precipitation in urban areas at fine resolutions.

Submitted by Cláudia Bueno (claudiamoura18@gmail.com) on 2016-04-01T19:43:27Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Rubens Villar Siqueira - 2015.pdf: 4882241 bytes, checksum: 3f8cb0b344dec7efd60e3c7564ed2c56 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2016-04-04T11:52:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Rubens Villar Siqueira - 2015.pdf: 4882241 bytes, checksum: 3f8cb0b344dec7efd60e3c7564ed2c56 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-04T11:52:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Rubens Villar Siqueira - 2015.pdf: 4882241 bytes, checksum: 3f8cb0b344dec7efd60e3c7564ed2c56 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-12-03 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / Climate analysis, whether at global, regional or local level, it has been the subject of research in various fields of earth sciences. Among the climatic parameters, temperature and precipitation have gained importance in recent decades because of significant changes in their magnitudes. Thus, this work performs a detailed analysis of the temperature for the Greater Goiânia, using satellite images to generate surface temperature for the study area, at first, through an analysis between the years 1997 and 2008 and after in about twenty years, periodically every four years, for the years 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 and 2014. The elaborate maps, besides showing the spatial variation of urban heat islands, show that there was significant changes to the minimum temperature, maximum and average. Between the period 1997 and 2008, the minimum decrease about 1.4°C and maximum jump of 31.2°C to 36.0°C. Test results for the five periods between 1997 and 2014, show that the year 2014 is presented as the hottest in the years studied. Through the resulting maps of this analysis, it can see that the range of temperatures, the difference between the maximum and minimum, grow with the years. An estimated temperature of satellite validation model was performed by direct comparison between the surface temperature and the data of GOIÂNIA weather station belonging to INMET, with differences of 0.7°C to 1.9°C between the temperatures demonstrating the applicability of satellite images to estimate temperatures in areas that do not have a dense meteorological network. The last analysis performed is forecast monthly temperatures for the period between the years 2040-2047, using the method of Holt-Winters. The model used for predicting allowed the computation of the seasonality of the minimum monthly temperatures, average and maximum for the historical period between the years 1970 to 2015. The predicted temperatures renew the expectation of increased minimum temperatures, average and maximum presented by the analysis of Historic data. As shown, in addition to the monthly increases in temperature, the occurrence of these will be situated in the highest classes of about 1.0° C warmer. We can see that, too, after 2000, all temperatures rise significantly, where their amplitudes between the minimum and maximum are located at a higher level than in previous years. / A análise do clima, seja em escala global, regional ou local, tem sido objeto de pesquisa em diversas áreas das ciências da terra. Dentre os parâmetros climáticos, a temperatura e a precipitação ganharam importância nas últimas décadas devido as alterações significativas em suas magnitudes. Desta forma, este trabalho executa uma análise particularizada da temperatura para a Região Metropolitana de Goiânia, utilizando imagens de satélites a fim de gerar a temperatura de superfície para a área de estudo, em um primeiro momento, por meio de uma análise entre os anos de 1997 e 2008 e após em cerca de vinte anos, periodicamente a cada quatro anos, para os anos de 1997, 2001, 2005, 2009 e 2014. Os mapas elaborados, além de mostrarem a variação espacial das ilhas de calor urbano, demonstram que houve variações significativas para as temperaturas mínimas, máximas e médias. Entre o período de 1997 e 2008, as mínimas decrescem aproximadamente em 1,4°C e as máximas saltam de 31,2°C para 36,0°C. Os resultados da análise para os cinco períodos entre 1997 e 2014, demonstram que o ano de 2014 se apresentou como o mais quente entre os anos estudados. Por meio dos mapas resultantes desta análise, é possível notar que a amplitude das temperaturas, diferença entre as máximas e mínimas, crescem com o decorrer dos anos. Um modelo de validação das temperaturas estimadas por satélite foi executado por meio da comparação direta entre a temperatura de superfície e os dados da estação meteorológica GOIÂNIA, pertencente ao INMET, apresentando diferenças de 0,7°C a 1,9°C entre as temperaturas, demonstrando a aplicabilidade de imagens de satélite para estimativa de temperaturas em áreas que não dispõem de uma rede meteorológica adensada. A última análise executada trata da previsão de temperaturas mensais para o período entre os anos de 2040 a 2047, utilizando o método de Holt-Winters. O modelo adotado para a previsão permitiu a computação da sazonalidade das temperaturas mensais mínimas, médias e máximas para o período histórico entre os anos de 1970 a 2015. As temperaturas previstas reafirmam a expectativa do aumento das temperaturas mínimas, médias e máximas apresentadas pela análise dos dados históricos. Conforme demonstrado, além dos aumentos nas temperaturas mensais, a ocorrência destas se situará em regiões mais altas, com cerca de 1,0°C mais quentes. Podemos notar que, também, após o ano 2000, todas as temperaturas se elevam de forma significativa, onde suas amplitudes entre as mínimas e máximas se situam em um patamar mais elevado que nos anos anteriores.

This thesis reports an insider case study conducted by an active participant in the setting which is the UHI Millennium Institute. UHI is a federal, collegial partnership of 13 academic partner colleges. This partnership is made up of Further Education Colleges and smaller and specialised institutions. The case study focuses on one programme team, the BA Social Sciences team and at its role in the implementation of the institutional learning and teaching policy and its related strategies. The case study uses literature on policy implementation and of Further/Higher Education links. It makes use of social practice theory and the notion of the teaching and learning regime to analyse the cultural characteristics of the team and a typolgy of responses to change, to review the response of the team to policy objectives. In doing so the case study is a response to calls for more 'close-up' research at the meso-level of analysis. The study reviews the response of the team over a 10-year trajectory from the initial validation of the programme to 2009. The study takes an interpretive, participant-obervation based approach to examine the cultural characteristics and response of the programme team. The methods used to gather data include examination of comprehensive documentation relating to the programme over this time frame and semi-structured interviews with team members. The findings are that the cultural character of the team is dominated by its origins in Further Education and by the social relationships involved in a team which spans three colleges and deals with three sets of college managers and UHI. The response of the team to institutional policy is to embrace its objectives but also to reconstruct policy in ways possible within constraints. The team can make certain choices but is also constrained by policy from 'the top'. The study discusses implications for the notion of the teaching and learning regime and for the typology of responses used and proposes ways in which these might be modified. Proposals for further research in this field are made, particularly involving the implications for policy making of the relationship between college management and UHI.

This study critically examines the (UHI) effect in urban and suburban neighbourhoods of Quito, Ecuador, over a 19-year period, focusing on the interplay between atmospheric pollution and urban/ suburban temperature. Utilizing Empirical Dynamic Modeling(EDM) and Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM), this study dives into the nonlinear dynamics of environmental factors, a method that traditional linear models fail to address effectively.The results unveil a consistent and strong positive correlation across various neighbourhoods, with temperature fluctuations indicating a typical UHI effect. This is most noticeable in urbanized areas where the temperature is significantly higher due to dense infrastructure and reduced greenery, a pattern that diminishes as one moves towards the outskirts. Specifically, pollutants like PM2.5 exhibit a non-uniform positive correlation, suggesting their collective increase or decrease across different regions, whereas CO shows a very slight and inconsistent inverse relationship across locations. The causal analysis further substantiates a significant interaction between PM2.5 concentrations and temperature, with the data revealing a reciprocal predictive capacity between these variables. The CCM analysis, through its graphical representation of predictive skills, confirms the causal effect of PM2.5 on urban temperature, marking an essential contribution to understanding the UHI effect and its implications for urban environmental dynamics. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the UHI phenomenon, highlighting the intricate relationship between urbanization, atmospheric pollution, and climate. The findings emphasize the necessity for urban planning and policy to consider these complex interactions to mitigate the effects of climate change on urban environments.

The urban heat island (UHI) is a phenomenon of noticeably higher temperatures in the cities as compared to their respective surrounding areas. This thesis aims at characterizing the influence of city expansion to the urban heat island phenomenon. The study is carried out in a city of Caceres in the Spanish province of the same name. A model input data is obtained with Landsat multispectral images. The analysis of satellite images shows that functional vegetation cover and water surfaces help in mitigating urban heat island effect. However, the Caceres city expansion does not influence the urban heat island intensity. A possible explanation for it is as the city expanded the ratio of vegetation to dry land remains constant in time.

Understanding climate change and variability at urban scale is essential for water resource management, land use planning, and development of adaption plans. However, there are serious challenges to meet these goals due to unavailability of observed and / or simulated high resolution spatial and temporal climate data. Recent efforts made possible the availability of high resolution climate data from non-hydrostatic regional climate model (RCM) and statistically downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study investigates trends in climate and urbanization and their impact on surface water supply for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The methodology presented in this study focused on the observed and projected NIMRHadGEM2- AO model and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of B2 and A2 of HadCM3 model are also employed for rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature data using for climate analysis. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) modeling system was used for determination of climate and urbanization impacts on water. Land-Sat images were analyzed using Normalized Differencing Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was employed to investigate the major changes and intensity of the urban heat island (UHI). The result indicates monthly rainfall anomalies with respect to the baseline mean showing wet anomaly in summer (kiremt) during 2030s and 2050s, and a dry anomaly in the 2080s under A2 and B2 scenarios with exception of a wet anomaly in September over the city. The maximum temperature anomalies under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) also show warming during near, mid and end terms. The mean monthly minimum temperature anomalies under A2 and B2 scenarios are warm but the anomalies are much lower than RCPs. The climate under the RCP 8.5 and high population growth (3.3 %) scenario will lead to the unmet demand of 462.77 million m3 by 2039. Future projection of urban heat island under emission pathway of A2 and B2 scenario shows that, the nocturnal UHI will be intense in winter or dry season episodes in the city. Under A2 scenario the highest urban warming will occur during October to December (2.5 ºC to 3.2 ºC). Under RCP 8.5 scenario the highest urban warming will occur during October to December (0.5 ºC to 1.0 °C) in the 2050s and 2080s. Future management and adaptation strategies are to expand water supply to meet future demand and to implement demand side water management systems of the city and UHI / Environmental Sciences / Ph. D. (Environmental Management)

De nombreuses études au cours des dernières décennies ont porté sur l'effet l’îlot de chaleur urbain (ICU). Les efforts initiaux visant à comprendre les facteurs qui influent sur l’ICU ont contribué à la mise en place de solutions et de stratégies d'atténuation adaptées. Les stratégies d'atténuation comprennent généralement l'augmentation de l'albédo urbain (réflectivité au rayonnement solaire) et l'évapotranspiration. Les augmentations d'albedo sont obtenues grâce à des technologies de toiture et de pavage ayant un albédo élevé. Une augmentation de l'évapotranspiration est obtenue par une combinaison de la diminution de la fraction de surfaces imperméables et la plantation de végétation dans les zones urbaines. Le confort thermique extérieur est défini à partir d’indices prenant en compte différents paramètres physiques et traduit la perception et la satisfaction des piétons. Ce confort est très difficile à obtenir en climat chaud et aride. Par conséquent, le travail présenté dans ce document met l'accent sur les méthodes appropriées pour réduire l’ICU et ainsi améliorer le confort thermique en plein air des piétons. Jusqu’à présent, peu de recherches ont été menées sur le confort thermique extérieur dans un climat chaud et aride. Les études sur l'atténuation de l'ICU et le confort thermique extérieur sont pratiquement inexistantes pour la ville de Bagdad. Bagdad a un tissu urbain complexe avec des constructions modernes, des maisons traditionnelles et des éléments caractéristiques du patrimoine local. Le climat en été est chaud, et les mois d'été sont considérés comme la plus longue saison avec près de 7 mois de l'année. Dans un premier temps, cette étude se concentre sur l'étude des stratégies d'atténuation à envisager afin d’évaluer comment le confort des piétons est affecté par les choix de conception des constructions, en comparant un quartier traditionnel à un quartier moderne. L’étude envisage ensuite la façon dont la végétation et les ombrages contribuent à réduire l'effet de l'ICU et à améliorer le confort thermique extérieur. Quatre scénarios différents sont élaborés pour évaluer le rôle d’éléments végétaux tels que les arbres, l'herbe et les différents modèles d'ombrage. L'évaluation a été effectuée le jour le plus chaud de l'été, la température radiante moyenne, l'humidité spécifique, la température de l'air et les distributions de la vitesse du vent ont été analysées à l'aide du logiciel ENVI-met. Le confort thermique est ensuite évalué à l'aide des indices thermiques de la température équivalente physiologique PET et du PMV étendu aux ambiances extérieures. En outre, une proposition de solution est abordée afin d’étudier son impact sur le confort thermique pour la journée la plus chaude (situation extrême) et une journée typique d’été. Les résultats ont révélé une amélioration du confort thermique dans la journée typique d’été. L'étude montre comment les facteurs urbains tels que le rapport d'aspect, la couverture végétale, les ombres et la géométrie du quartier sont des éléments cruciaux que les urbanistes et les municipalités doivent prendre en compte, en particulier pour les nouveaux aménagements urbains dans un climat chaud et aride. Une proposition d’aménagement global pour atténuer les ICU dans le cas d’un nouveau quartier sous climat aride, est détaillée en fin de mémoire. / Numerous studies over the past several decades focused on the effect of the Urban Heat Island. Initial efforts on understanding the factors affecting UHI contributed to proceed the appropriate solutions and mitigation strategies. Mitigation strategies comprise increase both urban albedo (reflectivity to solar radiation), and evapotranspiration. Albedo increases are obtained through high albedo roofing and paving technologies. An increase in evapotranspiration is achieved through a combination of decreasing the fraction of impervious surfaces and planting vegetation in urban areas. The outdoor thermal comfort is influenced by the perception and satisfaction of the pedestrians, especially in hot and arid climates. Consequently, this work focuses on the appropriate methods for reducing the Urban Heat Island and thus to enhance the pedestrians outdoor thermal comfort. However, there is limited research conducted on the outdoor thermal comfort in hot and arid climate. The studies on the mitigation the Urban Heat Island and the outdoor thermal comfort are almost non-existent for Baghdad city. Baghdad has a complex urban fabric with modern design constructions buildings, traditional and heritage houses. The climate in summer is hot, and summer months are considered the longest season with nearly 7 months of the year. This study focuses on investigating possible mitigation strategies to ensure how pedestrian comfort is affected by the constructions design choices comparing a traditional district to a modern one, and on how vegetation and shading patterns contribute to reducing the effect of UHI and improving the outdoor thermal comfort. Four different scenarios are designed to assess the role of vegetation elements such as trees, grass, and different shading patterns. The evaluation was performed on the hottest day in summer, the mean radiant temperature, specific humidity, air temperature, and wind speed distributions have been analyzed using ENVI-met software. Thermal comfort is assessed using the thermal indices the Physiological Equivalent Temperature PET and the Predicted Mean Vote PMV. Also, a proposal model is designed to evaluate the thermal comfort on the hottest day and the typical day in summer. The results revealed an improvement on thermal comfort in the typical day in summer. The study shows how the urban factors such as the aspect ratio, vegetation cover, shadings, and geometry of the canyon are crucial elements that urban planners and municipalities have to take into account, especially for new urban developments in hot, arid climate.

Modification of land use/land cover in South Florida has posed a major challenge in the region’s eco-hydrology by shifting the surface-atmosphere water and energy balance. Although drainage and development in South Florida took place extensively between the mid- and late- 20th century, converting half of the original Everglades into agricultural and urban areas, urban expansion still accounts for a dominant mode of surface cover change in South Florida. Changes in surface cover directly affect the radiative, thermophysical and aerodynamic parameters which determine the absorption and partitioning of radiation into different components at the Earth surface. The alteration is responsible for changing the thermal structure of the surface and surface layer atmosphere, eventually modifying surface-induced convection. This dissertation is aimed at analyzing the extent and pattern of land cover change in South Florida and delineating the associated development of urban heat island (UHI), energy flux alteration, and convective rainfall modification using observed data, remotely sensed estimates, and modeled results. Urban land covers in South Florida are found to have increased by 10% from 1974 to 2011. Higher Landsat-derived land surface temperatures (LST) are observed in urban areas (LSTu-r =2.8°C) with satisfactory validation statistics for eastern stations (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient =0.70 and R2 =0.79). Time series trends, significantly negative for diurnal temperature range (DTR= -1°C, p=0.005) and positive for lifting condensation level (LCL > 20m) reveal temporal and conspicuous urban-rural differences in nocturnal temperature (ΔTu-r = 4°C) shows spatial signatures of UHI. Spatially higher (urban: 3, forest: 0.14) and temporally increasing (urban: 1.67 to 3) Bowen’s ratios, and sensible heat fluxes exceeding net radiation in medium and high-intensity developed areas in 2010 reflect the effect of urbanization on surface energy balance. Radar reflectivity-derived surface-induced convective rainfall reveals significantly positive mean differences (thunderstorm cell density: 6/1000 km2and rain rate: 0.24 mm/hr/summer, p < 0.005) between urban and entire South Florida indicating convective enhancement by urban covers. The research fulfils its two-fold purposes: advancing the understanding of post-development hydrometeorology in South Florida and investigating the spatial and temporal impacts of land cover change on the microclimate of a subtropical city.

The important urban issue of urban heat islands in Stockholm is examined in this thesis. These places influence urban sustainability, liveability, and public health because of the much higher temperatures they experience relative to their surroundings. This thesis objectives were to discover these urban heat islands, comprehend their patterns, investigate how they relate to sociodemographic characteristics, and identify vulnerable areas. Advanced remote sensing techniques and analytical techniques were used to locate and show urban heat islands. The procedure produced visualizations of urban heat patterns, illuminating the geographical distribution and intensity of these islands as well as the urban zones most exposed to risks from heat.The study found a link between hotter temperatures and places with higher population densities, as predicted by the authors. Regression analysis and visual inspection both support this link, which underlines the impact of population dynamics on the local environment and the necessity for people- centered urban development. Additionally, a connection was shown between warmer areas and locations with a non-Swedish population. This finding suggests possible differences in heat exposure and raises concerns about the urban heat occurrence in same areas as where vulnerable socio- demographic factors appear. However, more thorough research is needed to determine the underlying reasons behind this link.The lack of a significant relationship between age groups or income levels and the prevalence of urban heat in the thesis suggests that Stockholm's vulnerability to heat may not be highly associated with these variables. This highlights the complexity of urban heat and its effects. A vulnerability map was made using data from previous research on groups that are vulnerable and causing factors. It was possible to identify regions where vulnerable socio-demographics factors and heat zones overlapped when compared to the heat map, which was useful information for developing the vulnerability map, that identified the areas in need of more resources.