The Earth's climate is changing and cities are facing a warmer future. As the locus of economic activity and concentrated populations on the planet, cities are both a primary driver of greenhouse gas emissions and places where the human health impacts of climate change are directly felt. Cities increase local temperatures through the conversion of natural land covers to urban uses, and exposures to elevated temperatures represent a serious and growing health threat for urban residents. This work is concerned with understanding the interactions of global trends in climate with local influences tied to urban land covers. First, it examines temperatures during an extended period of extreme heat and asks whether changes in land surface temperatures during a heat wave are consistent in space and time across all land cover types. Second, the influences of land covers on temperatures are considered for normal and extreme summer weather to find out which characteristics of the built environment most influence temperatures during periods of extreme heat. Finally, the distribution of health vulnerabilities related to extreme heat in cities are described and examined for spatial patterns. These topics are investigated using meteorology from the summer of 2006 to identify extremely hot days in the cities of Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Phoenix and their surrounding metropolitan regions. Remotely sensed temperature data were examined with physical and social characteristics of the urban environment to answer the questions posed above. The findings confirm that urban land covers consistently exhibit higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas and are much more likely to be among the hottest in the region, during a heat wave specifically. In some cities urban thermal anomalies grew between the beginning and end of a heat wave. The importance of previously recognized built environment thermal influences (impervious cover and tree canopy) were present, and in some cases, emphasized during extreme summer weather. Extreme heat health health vulnerability related to environmental factors coincided spatially with risks related to social status. This finding suggests that populations with fewer resources for coping with extreme heat tend to reside in built environments that increase temperatures, and thus they may be experiencing increased thermal exposures. Physical interventions and policies related to the built environment can help to reduce urban temperatures, especially during periods of extremely hot weather which are predicted to become more frequent with global climate change. In portions of the city where populations with limited adaptive capacity are concentrated, modification of the urban landscape to decrease near surface longwave radiation can reduce the chances of adverse health effects related to extreme heat. The specific programs, policies, and design strategies pursued by cities and regions must be tailored with respect to scale, location, and cultural context. This work concludes with suggestions for such strategies.

University of Macau / Faculty of Science and Technology / Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Macau / Faculty of Science and Technology / Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Since the early 1800's, many studies have recognized increased heat in urban areas, known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect, as one of the results of human modification to the natural landscape. UHI is related to differences in land surface temperature (LST) between rural areas and urban areas where factors of the built environment such as the thermodynamic capacities of materials, structural geometry, and heat generating activities cause increased storage and re-radiation of heat to the atmosphere. This thesis examines the correlation between factors of urbanization and differences in land surface temperature (LST) in the subtropical climate of Pinellas County, Florida using remote sensing techniques. It describes the spatial pattern of LST, analyzes its relationship to factors of urbanization relative to NDVI, percentage of impervious surface, and land use land cover in the study area. It also assesses the effectiveness of remote sensing as an efficient method of identifying LST patterns at the local and neighborhood level for mitigation strategies. Landsat TM thermal band imagery for three dates; April 1986, 2001 and 2009 was processed using Qin's mono-window algorithm (MWA) technique to derive LST levels. This data was compared to in-situ readings, then normalized and statistically analyzed for correlation with vegetation ratio (NDVI) and imperviousness percentages derived using linear spectral mixing/unmixing, and also with land use/land cover classification. The resulting LST spatial pattern is a gradient across the peninsular landscape, from cooler water and wetland areas to a generally warmer interior, interspersed with micro-urban heat islands (MUHIs), corresponding to urban structures and "cool-islands" of parkland and lakes. Correspondence between LST pattern and urban structures and land use demonstrates the suitability of medium resolution remote sensing data and techniques for identifying micro-urban heat islands (MUHIs) for possible mitigation. Mitigation could include relatively low-cost measures like replacement of inefficient asphalt roofs with more reflective and emissive "cool roofs," placement of "street trees" to enhance shade, and replacement of impervious pavements by permeable surfaces. The thesis concludes that Landsat TM imagery processed with the MWA provides an efficient, relatively low-cost method for locating MUHIs. Satellite remote sensing, combined with aerial photography can facilitate neighborhood level analysis for the implementation of low-cost mitigation techniques. Previous studies have demonstrated that these are successful ways to mitigate the UHI effect at the micro-scale level; lowering urban heat and saving energy, and also facilitating the reintegration of natural elements into the urban environment.

Στα πλαίσια της έλλειψης της μελέτης του φαινομένου της ΑΘΝ σε περιφερειακές Ελληνικές πόλεις, η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή παρουσιάζει και αναλύει τα αποτελέσματα της μελέτης του φαινομένου της ΑΘΝ σε δύο μικρές πόλεις της περιφέρειας, το Αγρίνιο και τα Ιωάννινα. Στόχος της εργασίας είναι να μελετήσει την ύπαρξη της ΑΘΝ, καθώς και να προσδιορίσει την ένταση και τη μορφή της. Για το σκοπό αυτό ένα δίκτυο αισθητήρων θερμοκρασίας σε συνδυασμό με μετεωρολογικούς σταθμούς αναπτύχθηκε στις δύο πόλεις και θερμοκρασιακά δεδομένα συλλέχθηκαν για το σχηματισμό του θερμικού τους προφίλ. Τα αποτελέσματα δείχνουν έντονη παρουσία του φαινομένου κυρίως κατά τις βραδινές ώρες και ένταση θερμικής νησίδας που φτάνει και τη μέση τιμή των 3.8 οC το μήνα Αύγουστο στο Αγρίνιο ενώ στα Ιωάννινα για την ίδια περίοδο το φαινόμενο έχει πιο ήπια μορφή (1.5 οC). Για την αντιμετώπιση του φαινομένου, την εξοικονόμηση ενέργειας καθώς και τη βελτίωση της θερμικής άνεσης των κτιρίων πόλεων που αντιμετωπίζουν πρόβλημα με την ΑΘΝ, μελετήθηκε η περίπτωση χρήσης υδρόφιλων ενεργειακών υλικών ως επικάλυψη οροφών, για μείωση της ροής θερμότητας από την οροφή με εξατμιστικό δροσισμό καθώς και τα δευτερεύοντα ενεργειακά κέρδη από μια πιθανή εγκατάσταση φωτοβολταϊκών οροφής. Η μελέτη περιλάμβανε την ανάπτυξη πειραματικής διάταξης αεροσήραγγας για τη δοκιμή των υλικών, με προσομοίωση των καιρικών συνθηκών της πόλης κατά του καλοκαιρινούς μήνες, όπου και το φαινόμενο της αστικής θερμικής νησίδας είναι πολύ έντονο, καθώς και ανάπτυξη φωτοβολταϊκών σε ταράτσα πανεπιστημιακού κτιρίου. Τα αποτελέσματα δείχνουν ότι ο εξατμιστικός δροσισμός μπορεί να αποτελέσει μια πολλά υποσχόμενη μέθοδο για την αντιμετώπιση της ΑΘΝ, ενώ η εγκατάσταση φωτοβολταϊκών μπορεί να συνεισφέρει επίσης στην εξοικονόμηση ενέργειας για δροσισμό τους καλοκαιρινούς μήνες, επιπλέον της παραγωγής ενέργειας. / Due to the lack of research on the field of the UHI effect in minor Greek cities, this thesis presents and analyzes the results of studying the UHI phenomenon in two small cities of the Greek province, Agrinio and Ioannina. Our aim was to study the existence of the UHI phenomenon as well as to determine its intensity and its type. In order to achieve that, a network of thermal sensors and meteorological stations was set on the two cities and temperature data were collected in order to define their thermal profile. The results point severe presence of the phenomenon especially during the nocturnal hours while the intensity of the phenomenon reaches up to 3.8 οC during August in Agrinio while in Ioannina at the same period the phenomenon is softer (1.5 οC). To mitigate the problem, save energy and improve the thermal capacity of the urban buildings in cities where the UHI occurs, the use of hydrophilic materials as a layer sheathing the roof was developed, in order to control the thermal flow from the roof by evaporative cooling. Furthermore, secondary energy benefits from a possible photovoltaics roof installation were investigated. Our research included the developing of an experimental set-up of a wind tunnel where sample materials were tested, by simulating the weather conditions of the city during the summer months, exactly the period of the high UHI intensity, as well as the installation of photovoltaics on a terrace of the university. The results indicate that evaporative cooling might be a very promising method in the field of the UHI phenomenon confrontation while the installation of photovoltaics can contribute in power saving for cooling during the summer months, in addition to electricity production.

The objective of this work is to study the urban climate, mainly by focusing on urban temperature trends. The specific focus is to understand the reasons of increase in minimum temperature through observational and modelling techniques. For this purpose, the temperatures data from 1950 to 2004 measured on several meteorological stations of Pakistan is studied and analyzed. Daily averaged annual and seasonal minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature data of 37 meteorological observatories of Pakistan (17 urban, 7 town and 13 rural) from 1950 to 2004 is first homogenized and then analyzed. The results show that after 1980s Tmin and Tmax increase faster than the period before 1980s at urban areas. During 1980-2004, the increase in Tmin at major urban stations is observed higher than the smaller towns and rural stations. To understand, the effect of the size of the city, changing land use and the building height on the evolution of minimum and maximum temperatures in urban areas has been studied by using the FVM (Finite Volume Model) model and the simulations are run for three days starting at 00:00 (GMT) on 19th day of each month and ending at 00:00 (GMT) on 22nd day of each month. For each month, 48 possible combinations of simulation scenarios are run (4*4*3) and in total, 576 simulations (48*12) are run for a year. The main results show that Tmin and Tmax increase when urban fraction u, city size r and building height h increase. But it is noticed that Tmax increases more than the Tmin when u increases, Tmin increases more than the Tmax when r increases and Tmin increases more than the Tmax when h increases. Among all urban factors (urban fraction u, city size r and building's height h), city size is the major factor that mainly contributes to increase the minimum temperature more than the maximum temperature in urban areas.

abstract: The Urban Heat Island (UHI) has been known to have been around from as long as people have been urbanizing. The growth and conglomeration of cities in the past century has caused an increase in the intensity and impact of Urban Heat Island, causing significant changes to the micro-climate and causing imbalances in the temperature patterns of cities. The urban heat island (UHI) is a well established phenomenon and it has been attributed to the reduced heating loads and increased cooling loads, impacting the total energy consumption of affected buildings in all climatic regions. This thesis endeavors to understand the impact of the urban heat island on the typical buildings in the Phoenix Metropolitan region through an annual energy simulation process spanning through the years 1950 to 2005. Phoenix, as a representative city for the hot-arid cooling-dominated region, would be an interesting example to see how the reduction in heating energy consumption offsets the increased demand for cooling energy in the building. The commercial reference building models from the Department of Energy have been used to simulate commercial building stock, while for the residential stock a representative residential model prescribing to IECC 2006 standards will be used. The multiyear simulation process will bring forth the energy consumptions of various building typologies, thus highlighting differing impacts on the various building typologies. A vigorous analysis is performed to see the impact on the cooling loads annually, specifically during summer and summer nights, when the impact of the 'atmospheric canopy layer' - urban heat island (UHI) causes an increase in the summer night time minimum and night time average temperatures. This study also shows the disparity in results of annual simulations run utilizing a typical meteorological year (TMY) weather file, to that of the current recorded weather data. The under prediction due to the use of TMY would translate to higher or lower predicted energy savings in the future years, for changes made to the efficiencies of the cooling or heating systems and thermal performance of the built-forms. The change in energy usage patterns caused by higher cooling energy and lesser heating energy consumptions could influence future policies and energy conservation standards. This study could also be utilized to understand the impacts of the equipment sizing protocols currently adopted, equipment use and longevity and fuel swapping as heating cooling ratios change. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.S. Architecture 2011

Urbana miljöer växer globalt och en allt större andel av jordens befolkning är bosatta i urbana miljöer. Samtidigt lever vi idag i en tid där pågående klimatförändringar har förändrat och kommer fortsätta att förändra temperaturförhållanden globalt, framförallt i världens städer. En urban värmeö är ett område i en stad i vilken temperaturen är högre än omkringliggande landsbygd. Temperaturskillnaden mellan urbana områden i staden och rurala områden utanför staden är generellt som störst efter solnedgången då landsbygdsmiljön kyls av med en hastighet som överstiger den i stadsmiljön. Störst avvikelse iakttas således generellt nattetid under moln- och vindfria förhållanden. Fenomenet karaktäriseras av att staden som struktur inverkar på klimatet lokalt. Med staden som struktur menas bland annat stadens och byggnaders geometri, men även förändringar av vindens rörelsemönster och verkan i staden.  Vidare påverkar även en ökad absorption av solstrålning, till följd av multireflektion eller en hög andel hårdgjorda ytor, temperaturen i staden. Dessutom leder stadens struktur ofta till en minskning av sensibel värmeöverföring ut ur staden på grund av att byggnader, framförallt i en tät bebyggelse eller byggnadsstruktur, hindrar den långvågiga strålningen att fritt kunna stiga upp i atmosfären. Strålningen bibehålls på så sätt i staden. Valet av byggnadsmaterial i staden, som generellt innehar låga albedo, bidrar också till att energi från solstrålning lagras i staden under dagen och avges under natten, något som i sin tur bidrar till en uppvärmning i staden. I tillägg bidrar antropogena verksamheter i staden, såsom exempelvis uppvärmning av byggnader, spillvärme från desamma samt förbränning av fossila bränslen, till en uppvärmning av luften i staden. Allt högre temperaturer i världens städer är av intresse att studera då det kan påverka människorna som lever i städerna negativt. Då studier om framtidens klimat pekar på att värmeböljor kommer att bli mer intensiva och utdragna men också förekomma med en ökad frekvens, kommer också risken för att människor drabbas av värmerelaterade åkommor att öka, detta då antalet dödsfall kopplat till värmeslag, värmestress eller likartade hälsobesvär ökar i takt med temperaturen. Åtgärder för att kyla luften i urbana miljöer och minska intensiteten av den urbana värmeön kan bland annat vara att implementera fler grön- och blåstrukturer i stadsmiljön, men också överväga vilka typer av byggnadsmaterial och färgval som används i staden, för att försöka höja albedovärdet i staden och på så sätt öka reflektionen av inkommande solstrålning. Då temperaturen i staden Norrköping, enligt rådande klimatforskning, förväntas bli högre i framtiden är det av relevans, inte minst ur ett hälsoperspektiv, att uppmärksamma och beakta frågan. Idag finns det dock en brist på studier om urbana värmeöar i mellanstora svenska städer, som är lokaliserade i en region som kan komma att drabbas av betydligt fler värmeböljor i framtiden, och en stadsstorlek där en stor andel av den svenska befolkningen bor. Med ovanstående som bakgrund har fältmätningar och analyser i GIS utförts för att undersöka den urbana värmeön i Norrköping utifrån dagens klimat men också utifrån olika framtida klimat- och stadssutvecklingsscenarier. Det finns idag en tydlig urban värmeö i Norrköping, utifrån fältmätningar under fem veckor under våren 2017, med en temperaturskillnad på mellan 3,44 och 5,64 °C i de urbana miljöerna gentemot referenslokalen i en rural miljö. Den urbana värmeön kan dessutom komma att öka dels i utbredning, dels i intensitet om staden utvecklas och förtätas på ett sätt där olika byggnadsstrukturers inverkan på temperaturen inte tas i beaktning. / Urban environments grow globally, and an increasing proportion of the world's population resides in urbanized areas. At the same time, the ongoing climate change has changed and will continue to change global temperature conditions, especially in the world's cities.  An urban heat island is an area in a city in which the temperature is higher than the surrounding countryside. The temperature difference between urban and rural areas is generally greatest after sunset when the rural areas are cooled at a higher speed than the urban environment. The biggest deviation is thus generally observed at night during clear and calm weather conditions. The phenomenon is characterized by how structures in the city, inter alia, the geometry of the city and buildings, but also changes in the wind patterns affect the climate locally.  Higher temperatures in the cities globally are of interest to study as it may adversely affect the growing number of people living in cities. As studies of the climate of the future indicate that heat waves will become more intense and elongated but also occur with an increased frequency, the risk of people suffering from heat related disorders will also increase, as the number of deaths associated with heat stress or similar health concerns correlates with an increase in temperature. Measures to cool the air in urban environments and reduce the intensity of urban warming can include implementing more green and blue structures in the urban environment, but also considering the types of building materials and color choices used in the city in order to try increasing the albedo value, and thus increase the reflection of incoming solar radiation. As the temperature in the city of Norrköping, according to prevailing climate research, is expected to be higher in the future, it is of relevance, especially from a health perspective, to pay attention to and consider the issue of urban heat islands. Today, however, there is a lack of studies on urban heat islands in medium-sized Swedish cities, which are located in a region that may be affected by significantly more heat waves in the future, and a city size in which a large proportion of the Swedish population lives. On that basis, field measurements and analyzes in GIS have been conducted to try and visualize the urban heat island in Norrköping based on today's climate, but also from different future climate and urban development scenarios. There is today a visible urban heat island in Norrköping, based on field measurements during five weeks in the spring of 2017. In addition, the urban heat island may increase in both size and intensity if the city develops and densifies in a manner that does not take into account the influence that different types of building structures have on the temperature.

La végétation influence le climat urbain de l'échelle de la rue à l'échelle de la ville. Les arbres de rue, en particulier, constituent une technique alternative à l'atténuation de l'îlot de chaleur urbain et à l'amélioration du confort thermique. Ils modifient les bilans radiatif et énergétique en interceptant et absorbant une partie du rayonnement solaire incident, créent de l'ombre, augmentent l'humidité relative de l'air par évapotranspiration et modifient également les écoulements d'air dans le canyon urbain. Le modèle TEB est un des rares modèles de climat urbain prenant en compte la végétation. Il intègre des paramétrisations dédiées à la végétation basse dans les canyons urbains et aux toitures végétalisées, et peut représenter les interactions de petite échelle entre les surfaces minéralisées, la végétation et l'atmosphère. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, une paramétrisation a été implémentée dans TEB pour modéliser les aspects radiatifs, énergétiques et aérauliques liés à la présence d'arbres de rue dans l'espace urbain. Une canopée arborée explicite a été intégrée dans le canyon urbain au-dessus de la chaussée et des jardins. Le modèle ISBA est utilisé pour représenter les strates haute et basse de la végétation. Les calculs radiatifs du modèle TEB ont été modifiés afin de prendre en compte les effets d'ombrage et d'atténuation du rayonnement solaire et IR liés à la présence de cette canopée, et les interactions IR entre l'ensemble des éléments urbains du canyon. Une évaluation du bilan radiatif a été réalisée grâce à une comparaison avec le modèle architectural d'ensoleillement à haute résolution SOLENE, sur la base de simulations de canyons urbains idéalisés et pour différentes configurations d'arbres de rue. Les flux d'énergie calculés par ISBA selon l'approche \textit{big leaf} ont ensuite été désagrégés entre les contributions de la végétation haute et basse. Les flux des arbres ont été redistribués sur la verticale de façon à modifier le microclimat à hauteur réaliste vis-à-vis de la position de la canopée arborée. Un effet de traînée lié à la présence de la canopée arborée a été intégré dans les équations de quantité de mouvement et d'énergie cinétique turbulente résolues par la paramétrisation de couche limite de surface de TEB pour le volume d'air au sein du canyon. Une évaluation en cas réel de cette nouvelle version du modèle a été conduite sur un site expérimental, à savoir une cour semi-fermée aménagée avec des arbres et où ont été collectées différentes variables microclimatiques. Les résultats montrent des améliorations considérables quant à la modélisation des températures de surface des murs et du sol, de la température de l'air sous la canopée arborée, et de la vitesse du vent. Ces implémentations visent à simuler de façon plus réaliste différentes stratégies d'adaptation par la végétalisation et d'évaluer leurs performances sur l'atténuation de l'îlot de chaleur urbain, le confort thermique, et la consommation d'énergie des bâtiments. / Vegetation influences the urban climate, from road to city scale. Street trees implementation is an alternative technic to reduce the urban heat island and to improve the thermal comfort. They modify the radiative and energetic balances by intercepting and absorbing a part of the solar radiation, provide shade, increase the humidity with evapotranspiration, and alter the air flow in the urban canyons. The TEB model is one the rare urban climate models taking into account vegetation. It integrates parameterizations dedicated to low vegetation and green roofs. It can represent the small-scale interactions between mineral surfaces, vegetation and the atmosphere. During this PhD thesis, a parameterization has been developed to model the radiative, energetic and dynamical effects of street and garden trees in urban spaces. An explicit tree canopy has been integrated into the urban canyon, above gardens but also streets. The ISBA vegetation scheme has been used, and included in TEB, to represent these vegetated entities (both low and high strata). The radiative computations of the TEB model have been improved in order to represent the shading and attenuation of radiation due to trees, as well as all the infra-red interactions between the urban elements. An evaluation of the radiative budget has been done thanks to a comparison with the high- resolution architectural model SOLENE, using numerous different urban canyons with several layouts of tree canopies. Then, the energy fluxes computed by ISBA have been dis- aggregated between contributions from high and low vegetation. Fluxes allocated to the trees have been redistributed on the vertical in order to alter the microclimate at realistic height, i.e. respecting the position of the tree crown. A specific drag force of trees on the airflow is simulated. An evaluation has been done on a real experimental site in a canyon-like courtyard with trees where several microclimatic data were collected. The results show an impressive improvement of the surface temperatures of walls and ground, air temperature and wind speed. In the future, these implementations will allow to simulate more realistically several adaptation strategies using greening at city scale, and to evaluate their efficiency in terms of urban heat island mitigation, improvement of human comfort and building energy consumption.

Urbanisation alters the hydrologic response of a catchment, resulting in increased runoff rates and volumes, and loss of infiltration and base flow. Quantification of uncertainties is important in hydrologic designs of urban infrastructure. Major sources of uncertainty in the Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty and, in the case of projections of future IDF relationships under climate change, uncertainty arising from use of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) and scenarios. The work presented in the thesis presents methodologies to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCMs using a Bayesian approach. High uncertainties in GEV parameters and return levels are observed at shorter durations for Bangalore City. Twenty six GCMs from the CMIP5 datasets, along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. Disaggregation of precipitation extremes from larger time scales to smaller time scales when the extremes are modeled with the GPD is burdened with difficulties arising from varying thresholds for different durations. In this study, the scale invariance theory is used to develop a disaggregation model for precipitation extremes exceeding specified thresholds. A scaling relationship is developed for a range of thresholds obtained from a set of quantiles of non-zero precipitation of different durations. The disaggregation model is applied to precipitation datasets of Berlin City, Germany and Bangalore City, India. From both the applications, it is observed that the uncertainty in the scaling exponent has a considerable effect on uncertainty in scaled parameters and return levels of shorter durations. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to obtain spatial distribution of return levels of precipitation extremes in urban areas and quantify the associated uncertainty. Applicability of the methodology is demonstrated with data from 19 telemetric rain gauge stations in Bangalore City, India. For this case study, it is inferred that the elevation and mean monsoon precipitation are the predominant covariates for annual maximum precipitation. For the monsoon maximum precipitation, it is observed that the geographic covariates dominate while for the summer maximum precipitation, elevation and mean summer precipitation are the predominant covariates. In this work, variation in the dependence structure of extreme precipitation within an urban area and its surrounding non-urban areas at various durations is studied. The Berlin City, Germany, with surrounding non-urban area is considered to demonstrate the methodology. For this case study, the hourly precipitation shows independence within the city even at small distances, whereas the daily precipitation shows a high degree of dependence. This dependence structure of the daily precipitation gets masked as more and more surrounding non-urban areas are included in the analysis. The geographical covariates are seen to be predominant within the city and the climatological covariates prevail when non-urban areas are added. These results suggest the importance of quantification of dependence structure of spatial precipitation at the sub-daily timescales, as well as the need to more precisely model spatial extremes within the urban areas. The work presented in this thesis thus contributes to quantification of uncertainty in precipitation extremes through developing methodologies for generating probabilistic future IDF relationships under climate change, spatial mapping of probabilistic return levels and modeling dependence structure of extreme precipitation in urban areas at fine resolutions.