Background: The interest in shares has increased over the years, despite several stock market crashes. One reason for this is the emergence of stock trading online,which makes it easier for individuals to trade in shares. However, there has been much criticism towards financial analyst with the lack of fundamental basis to support their recommendations. Objective: The purpose of this study is to examine the share valuation models swedish financial analysts today applies and consider appropriate. A comparison will also be carried out in previous studies, to see if the application of the modelsand their suitability has changed. Method: The study used a qualitative approach with deductive approach. Semistructured interviews were conducted and the basis for the study's primary data.The theories and previous studies obtained through secondary data. Results: Our results demonstrate that no single model applied, is appropriate. Therefore, the financial analyst combines the models. Financial analysts place great emphasis on the macro-economic aspects in the valuation of shares. Macroeconomic analyses underlying fundamental valuation models.

Environmental economics is the application of economic principles to the study of how natural resources are developed and managed. The methodologies used attempt to value ecosystem services provided by healthy, functioning natural lands and ecosystems. Ecosystem services attributed to natural lands contribute significant human welfare benefits that go largely undervalued or misrepresented in the decision-making process for the development of land. As environmental valuation methodologies and techniques continue to advance, policy decisions will be better able to create outcomes that maximize benefits for targeted populations and landscapes. The purpose of this paper is to first describe the methodologies used in environmental economics. These methodologies will then be applied to the Big Cottonwood Canyon Watershed located to the east of Salt Lake City, Utah. The case study will describe the ecosystem services provided by the watershed and value them. Using these values, the study focuses on the proposed development of SkiLink, a gondola system that would connect two separate ski resorts in two separate canyons – the Solitude Mountain Resort, located in Big Cottonwood Canyon, and Canyons Resort, located near Park City, Utah. The debate over the proposed SkiLink focuses on weighing its potential contribution to Utah’s economy against its potential environmental consequences. Based on a detailed analysis of the economic benefits and ecosystem losses created by the proposal, a cost-benefit analysis of the project will be presented along with recommendations for further study of potential development that would likely accompany the building of SkiLink.

When single-family lots are valued for development of new residential areas,the valuation is influenced by several factors. The valuation is a matter ofdefinition that varies according to its interpreter. Previous research conductedin other countries, has identified a number of value-influencing factors. Thesefactors are the basis for this study.The study's purpose is to highlight the value-influencing factors thatcustomers value and are looking for in the choice of single-family lots. Thestudy also seeks to determine if there is an unknown difference between howprofessionals and clients value single-family lots.The study showed that the value factors considered important for customersand also professionals are consistent and applicable with the factors reportedfrom previous research. These value factors are the location, adjacentneighboring areas, public transportation service, house plot size and proximityto the community, bodies of water and schools. For the Swedish market fourvalue-influencing factors not mentioned in the previous research wereidentified. The additional factors are; the selling price of the single-family lot, acorner placement lot, connecting bicycle path and walkway and lot withorientation south and west. The previous research mentioned also three valueinfluencingfactors that were not identified in the Swedish study. These factorswere; distance to the highway, municipal tax rate and access to the singlefamilylot.The study showed that the parties generally have good knowledge of oneanother´s valuation of single-family lots. This study focused mainly on theprofessional’s knowledge of the customer’s value-influencing factors. Theprofessionals base their valuation on incurred development costs, local priceassessments and a consideration of customer’s value-influencing factors. Thisknowledge is important for real estate appraisers and developers when settinga value on single-family lots, to be able to determine the most accurate value.The study is limited to Swedish medium-sized cities and was performed inKarlstad and Hammaro, which together have a population of approximately100,000 inhabitants. The data was collected through both a qualitative and aquantitative method approach, intended to reflect both professionals andcustomers perspectives. The qualitative method approach consisted of openand individual interviews with experienced professionals. The quantitative7method approach consisted of an online questionnaire, which was answeredby existing and potential customers. The empirical data for the qualitativemethod approach is presented in text and the quantitative method approachby the empirical data presented in tabular form.

The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to-be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature of expert elicitation in technology valuation process, appropriate uncertainty quantification and propagation is very critical. The uncertainty in defining the impact of an input on performance parameters of a system, make it difficult to use traditional probability theory. Often the available information is not enough to assign the appropriate probability distributions to uncertain inputs. Another problem faced during technology elicitation pertains to technology interactions in a portfolio. When multiple technologies are applied simultaneously on a system, often their cumulative impact is non-linear. Current methods assume that technologies are either incompatible or linearly independent. It is observed that in case of lack of knowledge about the problem, epistemic uncertainty is most suitable representation of the process. It reduces the number of assumptions during the elicitation process, when experts are forced to assign probability distributions to their opinions without sufficient knowledge. Epistemic uncertainty can be quantified by many techniques. In present research it is proposed that interval analysis and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence are better suited for quantification of epistemic uncertainty in technology valuation process. Proposed technique seeks to offset some of the problems faced by using deterministic or traditional probabilistic approaches for uncertainty propagation. Non-linear behavior in technology interactions is captured through expert elicitation based technology synergy matrices (TSM). Proposed TSMs increase the fidelity of current technology forecasting methods by including higher order technology interactions. A test case for quantification of epistemic uncertainty on a large scale problem of combined cycle power generation system was selected. A detailed multidisciplinary modeling and simulation environment was adopted for this problem. Results have shown that evidence theory based technique provides more insight on the uncertainties arising from incomplete information or lack of knowledge as compared to deterministic or probability theory methods. Margin analysis was also carried out for both the techniques. A detailed description of TSMs and their usage in conjunction with technology impact matrices and technology compatibility matrices is discussed. Various combination methods are also proposed for higher order interactions, which can be applied according to the expert opinion or historical data. The introduction of technology synergy matrix enabled capturing the higher order technology interactions, and improvement in predicted system performance.

Three step process: Each valuation process can - independent of its economic or ecological focus - be subdivided into three stages: The selection of the target object, the determination of the effects to be analyzed and, last but not least, the monetary or non-monetary valuation of these effects. Already during the first two stages an implicit valuation through the selection processes for the target object and the effects takes place. The actual explicit valuation that is predominantly discussed in the literature is confined to the last stage. For the whole valuation process the three stages have to be clearly separated in order to be able to unequivocally attribute the influences on the results to the single stages. Implementation: Each valuation process is only as good as the information and decision instruments that are used in the determination of its results. Special features of eco-related consequences: The structure of a valuation process of eco-related consequences corresponds to the one for economic, monetary valuable consequences. The scientific discussion needs an objective analysis of the three stages and of the information and decision processes that implement the valuation.

Brownfields redevelopment has been encouraged by governments or the real estate market because of economic, social and environmental benefits. However, uncertainties in contaminated land redevelopment may cause massive investment risk and need to be managed so that contaminated land redevelopment is facilitated. This study was designed to address hydrogeological as well as economic uncertainty in a hypothetical contaminated land redevelopment project and manage the risk from these uncertainties through the integration of the hydrogeological and economic uncertainties. Hydrogeological uncertainty is derived from incomplete site information, including aquifer heterogeneity, and must be assessed with scientific expertise, given the short history of redevelopment projects and their unique hydrogeological characteristics. Hydrogeological uncertainty has not yet been incorporated in one framework with the economic uncertainty that has been relatively well observed in financial markets. Two cases of Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (NAPL) contamination were simulated using a physically-based hydrogeological model to address hydrogeological uncertainty: one concerns the effect of an ethanol spill on a light NAPL (LNAPL) contaminated area in the vadose zone, and the other is regarding the vapour phase intrusion of volatile organic compounds, in particular, Trichloroethylene (TCE), a dense NAPL (DNAPL), into indoor air through a variably saturated heterogeneous aquifer. The first simulation replicated experimental observations in the laboratory, such as the capillary fringe depressing and the NAPL pool remobilizing and collecting in a reduced area exhibiting higher saturations than observed prior to an ethanol injection. However, the data gap, in particular, on the chemical properties between the model and the experiment caused the uncertainty in the model simulation. The second NAPL simulation has been performed based on a hypothetical scenario where new dwellings in a redeveloped area have the potential risk of vapour phase intrusion from a subsurface source into indoor air because remediation or foundation design might fail. The simulation results indicated that the aquifer heterogeneity seemed the most significant factor controlling the indoor air exposure risk from a TCE source in the saturated zone. Then, the exposure risk was quantified using Monte Carlo simulations with 50 statistically equivalent heterogeneous aquifer permeability fields. The quantified risk (probability) represents the hydrogeological uncertainty in the scenario and gives the information on loss occurrence intensity of redevelopment failure. Probability of failure (or loss occurrence intensity) was integrated with cost of failure (or loss magnitude) to evaluate the risk capital in the hypothetical brownfields redevelopment project. The term “risk capital” is adopted from financial literature and is the capital you can lose from high risk investment. Cost of failure involves economic uncertainty and can be defined based on a developer’s financial agreement with new dwellers to prevent litigation in the case of certain events, such as an environmental event where indoor air concentrations of pollutants exceed regulatory limits during periodic inspections. The developer makes such a financial agreement with new dwellers because new dwellings have been constructed founded on flawed site information, and municipalities may require it if a land use planning approval is required. An agreement was presumed that the developer would repurchase the affected houses from new dwellers immediately, if indoor air contamination exceeded the regulatory limit. Furthermore, the developer would remediate any remaining contamination, demolish the affected houses and build new houses if they were worth investing in. With this financial plan assumed, the stochastic housing price, stochastic inflation rate and stochastic interest rate have been considered to cause the uncertainty in the cost of failure, and the information on these stochastic variables was obtained from the financial market due to its long history of observations. This research reviewed appropriate risk capital valuation methods for hydrogeologists to apply straightforwardly to their projects, with integrating probability of failure (hydrogeological uncertainty) and cost of failure (economic uncertainty). The risk capital is essentially the probability of failure times the cost of failure with safety loading added to compensate investors against hydrogeological and financial uncertainty. Fair market prices of risk capital have been valuated using financial mathematics and actuarial premium calculations, and each method has a specific safety loading term to reflect investors’ level of risk aversion. Risk capital results indicated that the price of the risk capital was much more sensitive to hydrogeological uncertainty than financial uncertainty. Developers can manage the risk capital by saving a contingency fee for future events or paying an insurance premium, given that the price of this risk capital is the price of a contingent claim, subsequent to failure in remediation or in foundation design, and equivalent to an environmental insurance premium if there is an insurance company to indemnify the liability for the developer. The optimal framework of investment strategy in brownfields redevelopment can be built by linkage of addressing and integrating uncertainties and valuating risk capital from the uncertainties. This framework involves balancing the costs associated with each step while maximizing a net profit from land redevelopment. The optimal investment strategy, such as if or when to remediate or redevelop and to what degree, is given when the future price of the land minus time and material costs as well as the contingency fee or insurance premium maximizes a net profit.

Contingent Claim Pricing with Applications to Financial Risk Management By Hua Chen 2008 Committee Chair: Samuel H. Cox and Shaun Wang Major Academic Unit: Department of Risk Management and Insurance This is a multi-essay dissertation designed to explore the contingent claim pricing theory with non-tradable underlying assets, with emphasis on its applications to insurance and risk management. In the first essay, I apply the real option pricing theory and dynamic programming methods to address problems in the area of operational risk management. Particularly, I develop a two-stage model to help firms determine optimal switching triggers in the event of an influenza epidemic. In the second essay, I examine mortality securitization in an incomplete market framework. I build a jump-diffusion process into the original Lee-Carter model and explore alternative model with transitory versus permanent jump effects. I discuss pricing difficulties of the Swiss Re mortality bond (2003) and use the Wang transform to account for correlations of the mortality index over time. In the third essay, I study the valuation of the non-recourse provision in reverse mortgages. I model the various risks embedded in the HECM program and apply the conditional Esscher transform to price the non-recourse provision. I further examine the premium structure of HECM loans and investigate whether insurance premiums are adequate to cover expected claims.

Policyholder exercise behavior presents an important risk factor for life insurance companies. Yet, most approaches presented in the academic literature – building on value maximizing strategies akin to the valuation of American options – do not square well with observed prices and exercise patterns. Following a recent strand of literature, in order to gain insights on what drives policyholder behavior, I first develop a life-cycle model for variable annuities (VA) with withdrawal guarantees. However, I explicitly allow for outside savings and investments, which considerably affects the results. Specifically, I find that withdrawal patterns after all are primarily motivated by value maximization – but with the important asterisk that the value maximization should be taken out from the policyholders’ perspective accounting for individual tax benefits. To this effect, I develop a risk-neutral valuation methodology that takes these different tax structures into consideration, and apply it to our example contract as well as a representative empirical VA. The results are in line with corresponding outcomes from the life cycle model, and I find that the withdrawal guarantee fee from the empirical product roughly accords with its marginal price to the insurer. I further consider the implications of policyholder behavior on product design. In particular – due to differential tax treatments and contrary to option pricing theory – the marginal value of such guarantees can become negative, even when the holder is a value maximizer. For instance, as I illustrate with both a simple two-period model and an empirical VA, a common death benefit guarantee may indeed yield a negative marginal value to the insurer.

The Football industry has turned into a financial war and the purchasing power among the clubs is getting more and more important. The fact is that some of the largest clubs in Europe actually have a negative net income in the last years. The importance of find- ing investors that are willing to invest in the club to achieve good financial ratios are getting more and more important. To find these investors a club must show good finan- cial results that will get the investors interested. In this thesis a valuation has been made of the two Nordic firms; AIK Solna and Parken Sport & Entertainment. With the use of valuation theory and profitability ratios; this thesis will value the organizations entirely as two firms. This will lead to the most accu- rate comparison because the firms are built up in different ways and this thesis will draw a conclusion about the effects of the whole firm value not just single parts of the firm. In this valuation calculations of different valuation ratios such as Free Cash Flow to Eq- uity and Free Cash Flow to Firm have been used. This thesis will also show calculations of profitability ratios such as ROE, ROA, ROC, P/E ratio and Interest Coverage ratio. When calculating the value of the firms the Modigliani and Miller firm valuation formu- la was used. The results of this thesis show that Parken Sport & Entertainment was nei- ther under or overvalued. The stock value of Parken Sport & Entertainment that was calculated was almost the same as its set value on the stock market today. AIK Solna on the other hand has big financial problems and their stock value was actually valued to a negative result. This is not a good result when they want to get new investors to the firm.

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