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This study is based on the viewpoint of the intertemporal substitution of the consumption smoothing. Under considering the interactive influences on the international economy, the writer employs the present value model to investigate an estimated model of the current accounts. The basis of the traditional current account model is to apply the traditional single-country VAR estimation, and not to consider the internationally interactive effects among countries. However, with the more and more frequent interactions among nations, the economic development in different countries, for the aspect of economic theory, may have interactive influences on each other. Respecting this viewpoint that the current account theory of the traditionally intertemporal model are actually unable to effectively support the inference of the model, the writer therefore adds the cross-country VAR estimation method analyze the transnational influences. I hope that the model can effectively modify the estimation index for the conventional model. In addition, a good model not only should contain in-sample goodness of fit, but also could reveal the variables of the future by using the out-of-sample. Therefore, according to the method of predictive capability assessment proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995), I attempt to compare the out-of-sample prediction between the single and the cross-country VAR. From the aspect of the goodness of fit, the finding of this study has proven that the model considered the cross-country VAR indeed has a relatively better goodness-of-fit result in Japan, if compared to the traditional single-country. However, in the U.S., the traditional single-country model does not immensely improve the goodness-of-fit result. The finding shows that either the traditional single-country VAR or cross-country VAR, it possesses the perfect goodness of fit. The reason, perhaps, is that America itself has already been the center of the politics and economy. Also, it seems those Americans representative households have as well as the worldview. Therefore, people in the States might have considered the economic conditions of other countries when they are engaged in consumption behaviors. If this is the case, there are no many opportunities for those people to adjust their behaviors when considering the foreign economic situations. On the other hand, from the viewpoint of the prediction capability, the final result conducted both in the U.S. and in Japan agreeably demonstrates that it is a better method of prediction using the cross-country VAR estimation than the traditional single-country one.

Tesis para optar al grado de Magíster en Economía / En este trabajo se analiza el efecto que tienen los incentivos financieros y de salud sobre las decisiones de retiro de las personas en un contexto con incertidumbre. Para esto se construye una versión modificada del “Option Value Model” que permite incluir los incentivos generados por un sistema de capitalización individual y por el estado de salud de los trabajadores. Los resultados avalan la relevancia de estos y dan cuenta de un alto ajuste del modelo a la realidad. Posteriormente, utilizamos las estimaciones para realizar simulaciones del efecto que tendrían cambios en parámetros socialmente sensibles sobre la decisión de retiro individual. En primer lugar, encontramos que un alza en la tasa de interés tiene un efecto ambiguo puesto que por una parte se acumula más en cada periodo, mientras que por otra, disminuyen las pensiones a las que se puede optar. En términos empíricos, si la variación es pequeña, la tasa de retiro aumentará; mientras que si es de mayor cuantía, disminuirá. Segundo, vemos que un aumento en la tasa de ahorro previsional inducirá el retiro, puesto que los trabajadores podrán optar a mejores pensiones en cada momento. Por último, estudiamos el impacto de cambios en el nivel de salud, donde observamos que un mejor nivel de salud incentiva a postergar el retiro, puesto que se percibe un menor desgaste al trabajar.

This thesis analyses the use of value models as boundary objects to support decision making during conceptual design of Product-Service Systems. Compared to requirements-based models, value models are claimed to enhance understanding of the design problems and customer needs, as well as to help the design team in creating more value adding solutions. The work of this thesis was to prepare, conduct and analyse a series of design experiments, which are are based on the continuous observations of designers’ verbalized design considerations. Protocol analysis was conducted to investigate how value models perform as boundary objects in design, in comparison with requirements-based models. The time spent on each different activity in the protocol has been used as main proxy in the experiment. Data triangulation was ensured by the use of a questionnaire that was answered by all participants. Both methods revealed that in the preliminary phase, value models are more effective than requirements-based models in conveying intuitive value-related information, assessing intangibles value aspects, and encouraging discussions on value concerns.

This thesis analyzes the long run relationship between stock markets and macroeconomic variables, such as the real industrial production index, consumer price index, money supply, and long-term government bonds. By the use of recent developments in cointegration methodologies a larger set of countries is analyzed due to mitigation of the issue where variables are integrated of different orders. Based on a present value model, this thesis applies an ARDL model and conducts the bounds testing procedure for analysis of cointegrating relationships among the variables. Complemented by the popular Johansen cointegration methodology, it is found that the variables are cointegrated for all of the twelve countries. Hence, the present value model provides a theoretical explanation of the long run connection between stock markets and macroeconomic variables. Finally, the long run relationship is estimated using both FMOLS and DOLS. Results show that real economic activity, proxied by the real industrial production index, enters a positive relationship with the stock market indices, and so does money supply. In contrast, the consumer price index and long-term government bonds enter a negative relationship with the stock market indices. Hence, this thesis adds to the literature by applying new methodologies to the topic, through which a larger set of countries can be analyzed, and by further analyzing the long run relationship between stock markets and real economic activity.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:44:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Mestrado PUC.pdf: 629205 bytes, checksum: c6c883b3f57af0cd553e521d11ab32b6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-06-28 / Este trabalho, fruto da experiência profissional voltada para gerenciamento de projetos na área de TI, foi idealizado como instrumento de compreensão e reflexão sobre as práticas de gerenciamento de projetos de TI nas organizações no Brasil, utilizando-se das melhores práticas do PMI e as teorias de Cultura Organizacional. O objetivo, então, dessa pesquisa foi traçar um perfil das organizações que implementaram as práticas de gerenciamento de projetos do PMI no Brasil, baseado na tipologia cultural de Quinn ou CVM, identificando os tipos culturais mais e menos favoráveis à metodologia, levando a um entendimento maior sobre os fatores culturais para as práticas do PMI no Brasil. Palavras-chave: gerenciamento de projetos; cultura organizacional; melhores práticas de gerenciamento de projetos do PMI

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An average-value model of a rotating rectifier circuit in a brushless excitation system is set forth, where a detailed simulation is required to extract the essential averaged-model parameters using numerical averaging. In the proposed approach, a synchronous machine model with saturation and cross saturation and an arbitrary rotor network representation that uses a voltage-behind-reactance representation for the field winding of the main machine is proposed. This allows the field winding to be represented as branches in a circuit solver, permitting straightforward simulation with connected circuitry. Also a brushless exciter model is introduced to be compatible with the averaged-model, where the exciter armature windings are represented using a voltage-behind-reactance formulation. The resulting average-value model is verified in time domain against detailed simulation, and its validity is demonstrated in all rectifier modes of operation.

In this thesis we deal with statistical inference related to extreme value phenomena. Specifically, if X is a random vector with values in d-dimensional space, our goal is to estimate moments of ψ(X) for a suitably chosen function ψ when the magnitude of X is big. We employ the powerful tool of regular variation for random variables, random vectors and time series to formally define the limiting quantities of interests and construct the estimators. We focus on three statistical estimation problems: (i) multivariate tail estimation for regularly varying random vectors, (ii) extremogram estimation for regularly varying time series, (iii) estimation of the expected shortfall given an extreme component under a conditional extreme value model. We establish asymptotic normality of estimators for each of the estimation problems. The theoretical findings are supported by simulation studies and the estimation procedures are applied to some financial data.