This study is based on the viewpoint of the intertemporal substitution of the consumption smoothing. Under considering the interactive influences on the international economy, the writer employs the present value model to investigate an estimated model of the current accounts. The basis of the traditional current account model is to apply the traditional single-country VAR estimation, and not to consider the internationally interactive effects among countries. However, with the more and more frequent interactions among nations, the economic development in different countries, for the aspect of economic theory, may have interactive influences on each other. Respecting this viewpoint that the current account theory of the traditionally intertemporal model are actually unable to effectively support the inference of the model, the writer therefore adds the cross-country VAR estimation method analyze the transnational influences. I hope that the model can effectively modify the estimation index for the conventional model. In addition, a good model not only should contain in-sample goodness of fit, but also could reveal the variables of the future by using the out-of-sample. Therefore, according to the method of predictive capability assessment proposed by Diebold and Mariano (1995), I attempt to compare the out-of-sample prediction between the single and the cross-country VAR. From the aspect of the goodness of fit, the finding of this study has proven that the model considered the cross-country VAR indeed has a relatively better goodness-of-fit result in Japan, if compared to the traditional single-country. However, in the U.S., the traditional single-country model does not immensely improve the goodness-of-fit result. The finding shows that either the traditional single-country VAR or cross-country VAR, it possesses the perfect goodness of fit. The reason, perhaps, is that America itself has already been the center of the politics and economy. Also, it seems those Americans representative households have as well as the worldview. Therefore, people in the States might have considered the economic conditions of other countries when they are engaged in consumption behaviors. If this is the case, there are no many opportunities for those people to adjust their behaviors when considering the foreign economic situations. On the other hand, from the viewpoint of the prediction capability, the final result conducted both in the U.S. and in Japan agreeably demonstrates that it is a better method of prediction using the cross-country VAR estimation than the traditional single-country one.

This thesis analyzes the long run relationship between stock markets and macroeconomic variables, such as the real industrial production index, consumer price index, money supply, and long-term government bonds. By the use of recent developments in cointegration methodologies a larger set of countries is analyzed due to mitigation of the issue where variables are integrated of different orders. Based on a present value model, this thesis applies an ARDL model and conducts the bounds testing procedure for analysis of cointegrating relationships among the variables. Complemented by the popular Johansen cointegration methodology, it is found that the variables are cointegrated for all of the twelve countries. Hence, the present value model provides a theoretical explanation of the long run connection between stock markets and macroeconomic variables. Finally, the long run relationship is estimated using both FMOLS and DOLS. Results show that real economic activity, proxied by the real industrial production index, enters a positive relationship with the stock market indices, and so does money supply. In contrast, the consumer price index and long-term government bonds enter a negative relationship with the stock market indices. Hence, this thesis adds to the literature by applying new methodologies to the topic, through which a larger set of countries can be analyzed, and by further analyzing the long run relationship between stock markets and real economic activity.

No description available.

本研究的目的在於了解台灣地區的農地地價是否符合現值模型，是否存在價格泡沫，以及農地做農業使用時是否存在機會成本。經由VAR模式分析之後發現，就本研究的農地資料而言，台灣地區的農地地價並不符合現值模型，而有價格泡沫現象，此一價格泡沫現象又以位於都市近郊的農地較為明顯。至於農地農用的機會成本，在本研究的實證結果中並不顯著，推論可能是我國現行農地買賣有所限制，以及實證資料係取自「核心農家」的農地所致。 　　價格泡沫現象的存在，推測是現行土地使用規劃與管制不確實所致，策研擬應以落實土地利用規劃與管制為要。另外，由於農地農用之機會成本並不明顯，表示目前的農地地價尚無法反應工、商業的土地需求，故以地價高低為指標的農地釋出政策，宜再審慎考慮。

This paper examines the short and long-term interdependencies between stock prices and dividends. I utilize firm level data from FTSE ALL SHARE from 1990-2014 and apply panel vector error correction model estimated with Engle & Grangers (1987) two-step procedure. The results show that there is a bi-directional long-term relationship between stock prices and dividends, i.e. an adjustment process is at work when a disequilibrium occurs. I also find a bi-directional short-term relationship. This paper also shows that Lintners model and the present value model are relevant frameworks in stock valuations.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:31:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carlos Eduardo Mariano da Silvaprot.pdf: 2595730 bytes, checksum: 9833a96c1c04d678ce0e727b83b72b45 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-11 / The aim of this work is to test the rationality of the Brazilian market for commodities actively negotiated at the BM&FBovespa, the exchange for stocks and derivatives in Brazil. The study encompasses live cattle, arabic coffee, corn and the US$/R$ exchange rate. The Present Value Model (PVM) was used to test the ratio between the future and spot prices spread and the market price of commodity under study. The ratio between the convenience yield, that accrues to holders of inventory, and the spot price is also tested. Cointegration tests, Granger causality tests and serial autocorrelation are among the tools employed. Conformance to the present value model is weak, since there is no cointegration between the convenience yield and the spot price for none of the four commodities. Prices, therefore, deviate from fundamentals. It is not possible to reconcile return forecasts with an efficient market environment under a context of rational expectations for the above mentioned assets. It is thus necessary continued investigations in this field. Two alternative schools of thought for investigations would be using equilibrium models between future and spot prices with arbitrage finite elasticity and, if prices follow an stochastic multivariate process, reverting to a trend line, to treat the convenience yield as an endogenous variable. / Este trabalho de pesquisa teve por objetivo principal testar a racionalidade do mercado brasileiro de commodities agropecuárias, para os ativos boi gordo, café arábica, milho e no âmbito de ativos financeiros, para a taxa de câmbio do dólar norteamericano. Essas commodities estocáveis são largamente transacionadas na Bolsa de Mercadoria e Futuros (BM&FBovespa). Utilizou-se o modelo de valor presente (PVM) da razão entre o spread dos preços futuros e a vista ( spot ) e o preço de mercado do ativo em questão, bem como entre o ganho de conveniência, que é o benefício obtido pelos detentores de estoque físico e o preço de mercado spot , utilizando testes de cointegração, de causalidade no sentido de Granger e de auto correlação dos excessos de retorno. Os resultados da pesquisa mostram uma fraca evidência do modelo para explicar os preços das commodities estocáveis estudadas, já que não houve cointegração entre o preço spot e o ganho de conveniência para nenhuma das commodities. Os preços, portanto, se desviam dos valores fundamentais para as commodities neste estudo. Assim, não é possível compatibilizar a previsibilidade de retornos com a existência de um mercado eficiente sob um contexto de expectativas racionais para os ativos estudados. Nesse sentido é necessária a continuidade das investigações neste campo. Duas vertentes alternativas para esses estudos seriam a utilização de modelos de equilíbrio de preços spot e futuros com elasticidade finita de arbitragem e, em outra linha de pesquisa, se os preços seguirem um processo multivariável estocástico, revertendo à uma linha de tendência, tratar o ganho de conveniência como uma variável endógena.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:31:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Patricia Marilia Ricomini e Almeida.pdf: 431610 bytes, checksum: 0efa171a28be7631027cccbcc8a1bc23 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-03-08 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / The concept of efficient market hypothesis has been the focus of finances for a long time, with the development of powerful theoretical reasons to explain why the hypothesis should remain. Since the beginning of 1930, the first papers about the analysis of securities were in evidence, it s been emerging the idea that the fundamental value of any security should be equal to the discounted cash flow from it and prices would vary around their fundamental values. Despite of security s present value beeing the best indicator to reflect their true value, this model covers expectations about future income, discount rate and people s racionality, becoming dificult the aplication of this model uses. As consequence, Campbell e Shiller (1987) developed the cointegration model, a powerful framewoork for testing expectations and racionality in financial markets. In this context, the literature about panel with unit roots and cointegration have been extended in a fast way. In part, this is happening due to the complex nature of interactions and dependences that, generally, ocurrs during the time and between individual units in the panel. The major recent concern of econometric literature, related to the cointegration tests and the unit roots of the dynamic panels, has been the development of tests that control the cross sectional dependence. In such case, an econometric model was adopted based on the application of the unit roots and the cointegration tests in panel, with the firm beeing the unit of analysis. To deal with the serial correlation, problems of nonstationary series as well as problems of small sample, recent techniques were applied in this study: panel dynamic OLS (DOLS) and fully modified OLS (FMOLS). Nine stocks, that compose the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index, have been analyzed throughout the period between 1994 and 2008. Summarizing, in spite of some conflicting results, it s possible to prove that there is a cointegration process between the prices of equities traded at BM&FBOVESPA and the dividends. The results obtained in this study allow the partial validation of the present value model at the firm level. However, the prices seemed not to reflect the expectation of dividends for the brazillian market. Therein, the prices of equities are over valued in relation to the payment of the dividends. Future researchs about the present value model for the brazillian market should be done. / A Hipótese de Eficiência de Mercado tem sido a proposição central das finanças durante muitos anos, com o desenvolvimento de razões teóricas poderosas explicando porque a hipótese deveria permanecer. A partir da década de 30, destacam-se os primeiros trabalhos relacionados à análise de títulos, surgindo a idéia de que o valor fundamental de qualquer título seria igual ao fluxo de caixa descontado deste, e que os preços atuais iriam variar em torno dos valores fundamentais. Apesar do valor presente de um ativo ser o melhor indicador para refletir seu verdadeiro valor, ele envolve expectativas sobre a renda futura, a taxa de desconto e a racionalidade das pessoas, tornando difícil a aplicação na prática desse modelo. Surge, então, o modelo de cointegração de Campbell e Shiller (1987), uma ferramenta útil para o teste de expectativas e racionalidade nos mercados financeiros. Nesse contexto, a literatura sobre painel com raízes unitárias e cointegração começa a crescer rapidamente. Em parte isso ocorre em função da natureza complexa de interações e dependências que geralmente existem ao longo do tempo e entre as unidades individuais no painel. A maior preocupação da literatura, no que diz respeito à análise de dados em painéis dinâmicos, tem sido o desenvolvimento de testes que controlem a dependência cross sectional. Nesse estudo,adotou-se um modelo econométrico baseado na aplicação de raízes unitárias e testes de cointegração em painel, tendo a empresa como unidade de análise. Para tratar a correlação serial, problemas de não estacionariedade das séries bem como problemas de pequena amostra, foram adotadas as técnicas de Panel Dynamic OLS (DOLS) e Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS). Analisaram-se nove ações (Klabin, Petrobrás, Bradesco, Itáu, Cemig, Ambev, Souza Cruz, Aracruz e Vale) para o período de 1994 a 2008. Apesar de alguns resultados conflitantes, é possível afirmar que existe um processo de cointegração entre os preços das ações negociadas e os dividendos. Os resultados permitem a validação parcial do modelo de valor presente a nível individual, já que os preços das ações parecem não refletir integralmente a expectativa dos dividendos para o mercado brasileiro. Os preços das ações estão superavaliados com relação aos dividendos. Recomendam-se pesquisas futuras sobre o modelo de valor presente para o mercado financeiro brasileiro.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Felipe Namur.pdf: 898119 bytes, checksum: 5a7a9a3c8afc7163ca30e749e356a10e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-08-18 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Campbell and Schiller (1987) proposed, within the scope of econometric analysis and cointegration, a powerful tool that enabled the present value model tests to also test market rationality and efficiency. The opportunity offered by the present value model of a substantial and settled fundamental value theory together with a powerful tool kit of empiricaleconometric tests was able to effectively contribute for the comprehension of important phenomena in the area of financial economics such as asset pricing, agents rationality and market efficiency as well as impelling new studies and improvements. If this basic rationality can be verified then follows several econometrically testable implications. In other words there will be a spread S reflecting the differences between the theoretical or fundamental value and the actual prices that if stationary will reflect a long term trend of reversion to those fundamental values. Pindick (1991) pioneered in the application of the present value model for commodities. Although other works and tests of the present value model for other assets have been developed it could not be found any other work or research for commodities but Pindick (1991) in the literature. The other papers and researches dealing with commodities before Pindick (1991) regard the convenience yield qualitatively, developing and analyzing it conceptually. It is in Pindyck (1991) that for the first time a quantitative operational variable for the convenience yield is built demonstrating that it´s values can be extracted from future prices. These so named cash flows can be seen as similar to dividends for stocks and are possible of being tested by the present value model. This work s purpose is to apply Pindyck s (1991) methodologies in Brazilian reality, using the live cattle commodity over the period from 2.001 to 2.008 based on theoretical reference and literature about the present value model, rationality hypothesis, market efficiency and making use of econometric tool kit regarding stationarity and unit root tests (ADF), Granger casuality testes, F tests with restrictions, OLS, VAR and cointegration tests. The validation of virtually all the implications of the present value model leads to the following conclusion and response to the formulated research problem: Prices for live cattle over the period from 2.001 to 2.008 match with the net convenience yield cash flows discounted to the present. The evidences presented assert the adjustment between prices and cash flows, implying that economic agents while trading with the live cattle commodity do that rationally, and only in a no significant fashion drive away from its fundamental values, regressing to it as a rule. / Campbell e Schiller (1987) propuseram, dentro da estrutura de análise econométrica e cointegração,uma poderosa ferramenta para que os testes de modelo de valor presente possam também testar racionalidade e eficiência de mercado. A oportunidade oferecida pelo modelo de valor presente, uma consistente e sedimentada teoria de valor fundamental simultaneamente a um poderoso ferramental de testes empírico-econométricos, pode contribuir de forma efetiva para a compreensão de importantes fenômenos na área de finanças, como apreçamento de ativos, racionalidade de agentes e eficiência de mercados, além de ser um propulsor de novos estudos e avanços. Se esta racionalidade básica puder ser verificada, então diversas implicações testáveis econometricamente se derivam. Em outras palavras haverá um spread S refletindo as diferenças entre o valor teórico ou fundamental e os valores praticados que, sendo estacionário refletirá uma tendência de longo prazo de reversão a estes valores fundamentais. Pindyck (1991) é o trabalho pioneiro de aplicação do modelo de valor presente para mercadorias. Embora outros trabalhos e testes de modelo de valor presente para outros ativos tenham sido desenvolvidos não se encontrou na literatura nenhuma outra pesquisa para mercadorias além de Pindyck (1991). Os trabalhos sobre mercadorias anteriores tratam do ganho de conveniência de forma qualitativa, elaborando-o e analisando-o conceitualmente. É em Pindyck (1991) que pela primeira vez se constrói uma variável operacional, quantitativa para o ganho de conveniência, demonstrando que seus valores podem ser extraídos dos preços dos contratos futuros. Estes fluxos de caixa, assim identificados, podem ser vistos como semelhantes aos fluxos produzidos pelos dividendos das ações e possíveis de serem testados pelo modelo de valor presente. A proposta deste estudo é reproduzir as metodologias empregadas por Pindyck (1991) na realidade brasileira, para a mercadoria boi gordo, no período de 2001 a 2008, tendo como referencial teórico modelos de valor presente, hipóteses de racionalidade, eficiência de mercado e utilizando-se de ferramental econométrico abrangendo testes de estacionariedade e raiz unitária (ADF), testes de causalidade de Granger, testes F com restrições, MQO, VAR e testes de co-integração. A aceitação de praticamente todas as implicações do modelo de valor presente permite a seguinte conclusão e resposta ao problema de pesquisa formulado: Os preços do boi gordo no período de 2.001 a 2.008 correspondem aos fluxos de caixa dos ganhos de conveniência líquidos esperados, descontados a valor presente. As evidências apresentadas constatam a correspondência entre preços e fluxos de caixa, implicando que os agentes econômicos ao transacionarem com a mercadoria boi gordo o fazem de forma racional, e apenas de forma não significativa afastam-se de seus valores fundamentais, regredindo a eles como norma.

在一個動態體系中，土地在各期的最佳利用方式，將可能隨開發時機而改變，如此，倘若政府土地稅的課徵，會對地主土地開發時序選擇造成影響，則將有影響土地利用的可能。職是之故，土地稅對土地開發時序的影響，就成了政府在課徵土地稅時，必須思索的課題。本文首先重點式的介紹國內外論及此一課題的相關文獻。其次利用現值模型做為分析的架構，得到了以下結論： 　　(1)地主土地開發的最適時機，在將土地開發延後一期之邊際成本等於利益相對之時。 　　(2)在土地開發前適用的稅率高於開發後的狀況下，課徵土地收益稅與地價稅，將加速土地開發。而在開發後稅率高於開發前之情形下，課徵土地收益稅與稅基「永以為定」的地價稅，效果為延緩土地的開發；但課徵稅基為市場價值的地價稅時，效果則不明確。 　　(3)課徵增值稅的效果取於土地前次移轉價值。如果此移轉地價高於（小於）土地開發前純收益之還原價值，則土地增值稅的課徵將加速（延後）土地開發的進行。 　　(4)無論是否課徵土地稅，土地開發前純收益流量的增加，將會導致土土地延後開發。另一方面，提高土地開發後之純收益流量，通常會造成土地開發的提前。不過，在地價稅的課徵係以市場價值做為稅基的情形下，土地開發後純收益流量增加對土地開發時序時影響，視土地開發前後適用稅率的相對大小而定。在土地市場發生閉鎖效果時，課徵土地增值稅將造成部分土地的延後開發。

Made available in DSpace on 2008-05-13T13:47:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 1850.pdf: 600111 bytes, checksum: 512f00eac39c4e25d72fa4b37ecc7e97 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-04-12 / Using Brazilian financial data for some shares traded in the Brazilian Stock Market (BOVESPA) we test the expectation hypothesis of present value models discounted by a constant factor. This model relates the price of a stock to its expected dividends. To perform econometric testing we use mainly the jointly restriction through Wald Test in a Vector Autoregression framework, as well as alternative testing procedures. The empirical results partially support the present value model discounted by a constant factor to predict prices for stock through its expected dividends. / Através de dados financeiros de ações negociadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, testa-se a validade do modelo de valor presente (MVP) com retornos esperados constantes ao longo do tempo (Campbell & Schiller, 1987). Esse modelo relaciona o preço de uma ação ao seu esperado fluxo de dividendos trazido a valor presente a uma taxa de desconto constante ao longo do tempo. Por trás desse modelo está a hipótese de expectativas racionais, bem como a hipótese de previsibilidade de preço futuro do ativo, através da inserção dos dividendos esperados no período seguinte. Nesse trabalho é realizada uma análise multivariada num arcabouço de séries temporais, utilizando a técnica de Auto-Regressões Vetoriais. Os resultados empíricos apresentados, embora inconclusivos, permitem apenas admitir que não é possível rejeitar completamente a hipótese de expectativas racionais para os ativos brasileiros.