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The tidal prism, or the volume of water exchanged from the sea to an estuary from mean low to mean high tide, influences system hydrodynamics and ecological functioning. Since 1884, the tidal prism in Morro Bay, California has been estimated to be decreasing over time due to sedimentation from upstream practices. What is the current tidal prism in Morro Bay and how will that change with sea level rise? How will eelgrass respond to rising sea levels? For this study, inexpensive tidal gauges were deployed at four locations in Morro Bay from March to August 2023 to measure spatially varying tidal elevations and datums within the bay. I utilized a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and tidal information to determine volumes of water in Morro Bay. Estimated sea level rise scenarios were utilized to project the 2022 tidal prism into the years 2050 and 2100. Additionally, I estimated the 2019 and 2022 viable eelgrass habitat area using the vertical growth range. I estimated the future potential viable habitat area in the years 2050 and 2100 using estimated sea level rise scenarios. Future projections were made assuming no change in bathymetry over time. Different instruments used to obtain water levels yielded up to ~4 percent differences in the tidal prism estimate. Measurement uncertainty in the monthly tidal datums produced ~3 percent uncertainty within the tidal prism estimate. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2022 tidal prism was lower by ~2 percent. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2023 tidal prism estimated from two nearly co-located tidal instruments at the mouth of Morro Bay were higher by ~5 and ~7 percent, respectively. Spatially varying tidal datums in Morro Bay were found to affect the tidal prism by up to ~3 percent, compared to tidal prism estimates using only a tidal datum near the estuary mouth. However, the effect of spatially varying tidal datums on the tidal prism is the same order of magnitude as measurement uncertainty and is thus not statistically significant. As sea levels rise, the tidal prism is projected to increase by ~40 percent by 2100 from 2022 under the most extreme scenario, H++. Initially, as sea levels rise, the potential viable eelgrass habitat area will increase from the area in 2022 (1108 acres (4.47E+06 m2)). After sea levels rise to 1.5 m above 2000 levels, the potential viable eelgrass area will have reached a maximum area of 1938 acres (7.82E+06 m2). However, under SLR scenario H++, potential viable habitat area is predicted to decrease by up to 59% by 2100 from 2022. The tidal prism, or the volume of water exchanged from a bay to the seathe sea to an estuary from mean lowhigh to mean highlow tide, influences system hydrodynamics and ecological functioning. Since 1884, the tidal prism in Morro Bay, California has been estimated to be decreasing over time due to sedimentation from upstream practices. What is the current tidal prism in Morro Bay and how will that change with sea level rise? How will eelgrass respond to rising sea levels? For this study, inexpensive tidal gauges were deployed at four locations in Morro Bay from March to August 2023 to obtain measure spatially varying tidal elevations and datums within the bay. I utilized a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and tidal information from NOAA to determine volumes of water in Morro Bay at the estimated monthly mean tidal datums. Estimated sea level rise scenarios were utilized to project the 2022 tidal prism into the years 2050 and 2100. Additionally, I estimated the 2019 and 2022 viable eelgrass habitat area using the vertical growth range. I estimated the future potential viable habitat area in the years 2050 and 2100 using estimated sea level rise scenariosfor various sea level rise scenarios.Future projections were made assuming no change in bathymetry over time. Different instruments used to obtainwater levels yielded up to ~4 percent differences in the tidal prism estimate. Measurement uncertainty in the monthly tidal datums produced~3 percent uncertainty within the tidal prism estimate. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2022 tidal prism from Stilltek decreasedwas lower by ~2.05 percent. Compared to the tidal prism in August 2019, the August 2023 tidal prism estimated from the Stilltek gauge and the Cal Poly Coast Guard gaugetwo nearly co-located tidal instruments at the mouth of Morro Bay increased were higher by ~5.06 and ~6.777 percent, respectively. Spatially varying tidal datums in Morro Bay were found to affect the tidal prism by up to ~2.883 percent, compared to tidal prism estimates using only a tidal datum near the estuary mouth. However, the effect of spatially varying tidal datums on the tidal prism is the same order of magnitude as measurement uncertainty and is thus not statistically significant. As sea levels rise, the tidal prism is projected to increase by ~to a maximum of 40 percent by 2100 from 2022 under the most extreme scenario, H++. InitiallyInitially, as sea levels rise, the potential viable eelgrass habitat area will increase from the area in 2022 (1108 acres (4.47E+06 m2)). ABut after sea levels rise to 1.5 m above 2000 levels, the potential viable eelgrass areas will have reached the thresholda maximum area of 1938 acres (7.82E+06 m2). However, under SLR scenario H++, potential viable habitat area is predicted to decrease by up to 59% by 2100 from 2022.

Water constraints for humans and nature are gaining more and more public attention as a critical environmental dilemma that needs to be addressed. When aquifers and rivers are running dry, the debate refers to an ongoing “world water crisis”. This thesis focuses on the water and agricultural production complexity in a global, regional and local perspective during different phases of development. It addresses the river basin closing process in light of consumptive water use changes, land use alterations, past and future food production in waterscarce developing countries in general, and a south Indian case study basin in particular, the Bhavani basin in Tamil Nadu. The study focuses on early phases of global agricultural development and addresses consumptive use and river depletion in response to land use change and irrigation expansion. It shows that focus must be shifted from a water use to a consumptive water use notion that considers both green and blue water resources. The Bhavani basin development trajectory reveals a dynamic interplay between land and water resources and different socio-political groups during the “green revolution” period. The present system has emerged as a step-by-step adaptation in response to hydro-climatic variability, human demands and infrastructure constraints. The study reveals three kinds of basin closure: allocation closure; hydrological closure; and perception wise closure. Many concerted actions on multiple scales have contributed to an increasing water use complexity even after closure. The study shows the extent to which natural variability hides creeping changes, and that the “average year” is a deceptive basis for water allocation planning. Future consumptive water requirements to feed growing populations in the developing world is analysed with a back-casting country-based approach. The study shows a doubling of water requirements by 2050 and how the challenge can be halved by increased water productivity. Since blue water accessibility for irrigation clearly will be insufficient, additional green water has to be acquired by horizontal agricultural expansion into other terrestrial ecosystems. The task will be substantial and increase the importance of global food trade. / Vattenbrist för människor och ekosystem är en mer och mer uppmärksammad miljöfråga. Sjunkande grundvattennivåer och uttorkade floder gör att många talar om en ”global vattenkris”. Denna avhandling fokuserar på de komplexa sambanden mellan vatten och jordbruksproduktion utifrån ett globalt, regionalt och lokalt perspektiv under olika utvecklingsfaser under fyra sekler. Den redogör för hur avrinningsområden överintecknas och slutligen ”stängs” för ytterligare vattenutvinning. Effekterna av ökad vattenutvinning i relation till historisk och framtida matproduktion analyseras generellt i utvecklingsländer med vattenbrist, och i detalj i en fallstudie i Bhavani avrinningsområde i Tamil Nadu i södra Indien. Studien visar för den tidiga jordbruksutvecklingen på global nivå hur förändrad markanvändning och bevattningsexpansion leder till förändrad balans mellan evapotranspiration och avrinning, med uttorkning av vattendrag som följd. Den visar vidare vikten av ett paradigmskifte där fokus flyttas från vattenanvändning till ”konsumerande” vattenanvändning, och som inkluderar både grönvatten- och blåvattenresurser. Analysen av Bhavaniområdets utvecklingskurva under det senaste seklets jordbruksutveckling visar på ett dynamiskt växelspel mellan land- och vattenresurser och mellan olika samhällsgrupper. Den nuvarande vattenanvändningssituationen har stegvis växt fram som en respons på hydroklimatisk variabilitet, människors behov och infrastrukturbegränsningar. Studien påvisar att ett avrinningsområde kan ses som ”stängt” på tre skilda sätt: när flödet är överintecknat, när utflödet sinar, och när vattenanvändare upplever att behoven överstiger tillgången. Även efter ”stängning” har etablering och intensifiering av vattenutvinning fortsatt och resulterat i ett alltmer komplext och sammanflätat vattenanvändningsmönster. Studien visar vidare hur hög hydroklimatisk variabilitet, dels gör att ”genomsnittlig vattentillgång” är förledande vid planering av vattenfördelning i ett avrinningsområde, och dels döljer smygande kumulativa effekter av ökad vattenutvinning. Slutligen anlyseras ländervis framtida vattenbehov för att möta matbehovet i världens utvecklingsländer, vilket visar på en fördubbling fram till 2050. Tack vare ökad vattenproduktivitet kan behovet emellertid halveras. Endast en bråkdel av det resterande behovet kan mötas genom ökad bevattning, dvs. med mera blåvatten. En stor del av vattenbehovet måste istället täckas med mera grönvatten via uppodling av andra terrestra ekosystem. Uppgiften innebär en betydande utmaning och global handel med jordbruksprodukter kommer att öka avsevärt i betydelse.

Master of Landscape Architecture or Regional and Community Planning / Department of Landscape Architecture/Regional and Community Planning / Timothy Keane / Kansas City is expecting a 25% growth in population by 2050. This design proposal promotes West Bottoms as a potential area to house some of the new population, and more importantly supply a live and work community for these people. West Bottoms is also home to major industry in Kansas City as well as an up and coming art culture. West Bottoms has great potential for a community that allows the existing and new population to be a part of a live-work-play community with the vacancies in the area. The projected population growth is expected to promote sprawl, further increasing the average driving time to the city. West Bottoms currently has few connections to the downtown and offers few reasons to come to the area. These connections are mainly major bridges or highways. Another issue West Bottoms faces is flooding problems from OK Creek and Turkey Creek, which lead into the Kansas and Missouri Rivers. Finally, post and present industrial soil contamination threatens the groundwater. When mixed with flooding concerns, this contamination is potentially harmful for the health of downstream cities. Drawing inspiration from travels, Kansas City charm, plants, art, and water storage, case studies were researched. Themes from each case study were quantified. These themes paired with inventory and analysis of the West Bottoms provided the basis for the design proposed here. The successional design of the area will progress from a contaminated landscape to a landscape that holds floodwater. The final design holds all of the stormwater from the 100 year 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hour rain events. The final design incorporates areas of learning, a variety of paths and seating, a live-work-play community, clean and creative industry, and an art culture that sustains the excitement for the timeline of succession. Overtime this landscape will evolve into a new destination for Kansas City using an integrated solution remediating the soil and holding flood waters as an amenity for the new population.

Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Technology: Governance and Economic Development, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa. 2015. / South African rural areas are amongst the poorest in the world, as there is still a wide gap in terms of development with their urban neighbours. With an estimated 6.4 million South Africans falling below the national poverty line in 2010, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) remains the province with the highest number of poor people. The majority of rural dwellers in South Africa and KZN rely on subsistence farming, while others depend on government grants or family members living and working in urban areas to sustain a living. However, the income received is often insufficient to cater for their daily needs. In consonance with the high prevalence of poverty and the stagnation of subsistence farming, this study aims to examine the role of water supply in rural agricultural development in the Ward 19 area of Mtubatuba Municipality, which is situated along the north eastern region of KZN. To accomplish this aim, a mixed research approach with elements of qualitative (interviews) and quantitative (questionnaire) research techniques was used to obtain relevant information. A total of 50 participants took part in this study, all of whom were subsistence farmers in Ward 19 of Mtubatuba Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal. Furthermore, interviews were conducted with three senior officials from the regional office of the Department of Water Affairs in Durban; three staff members from the Mtubatuba Municipality; two individuals from Ward 19; two senior staff members from the Department of Agriculture, Environmental Affairs and Rural Development in Mtubatuba; as well as two senior staff members from Umkanyakude water services provider in Mtubatuba. The study revealed that water shortages have adversely undermined the development and growth of subsistence farming in this poor community. Furthermore, the difficulties experienced by the marginalised people of Ward 19 are typical of many rural areas which have not fully benefitted from transformation in a post-apartheid South Africa. In order to address the defunct subsistence iii farming in this community, the study proposed a well-tailored and effective water resource management approach with the intention of transforming subsistence farming into commercial farming, thus improving the standard of living and reducing poverty to a reasonable level. Furthermore, in recognition that the area under study is dominated by women, the study emphasised the imperativeness of empowering the women of the community as a strategy underpinning rural development.