The need to better comprehend the relationship between societies and the hydrological cycle led scientists to develop sophisticated mathematical models in order to predict how these relationships will be in the future. However, some transformations might not be predicted in such socio-hydrological models, what makes necessary to search for new methods to build scenarios. In this way, the present work seeks to understand how societies will change the way they deal with water resources regarding different drivers of change, such as population growth, changes in climate, land cover, patterns of consumption and influence of governmental institutions. To do so, this work employs not only official data sets that are public available, but also information provided by citizens through citizen observatories concepts of crowdsourcing, participatory governance and environmental monitoring. Such volunteered information is based on their own experiences, knowledge and individual patterns regarding water management and sanitation aspects from the study area, São Carlos city. The conclusions reveal that the new tool presented in this work, the Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS), makes possible to outline future trajectories of coevolution in coupled human-water system and provide assessment on water security scenarios. This work integrates the water security component facing climate changes, from INCT-MC2 (FAPESP 2014/50848-9), contributes to better comprehend socio hydrological aspects in UK Academies (FAPESP 2018/03473-0) and provides a new tool, the SHOWS, which assists decision makers in resilient cities, in the context of CEPID/CEMEAI (FAPESP 2011/51305-0) e do SPRINT-Warwick (FAPESP 2018/08413-6). At international level, it is a contribution to the activities of \"Panta Rhei – Everything Flows 2013-2022\", promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, which seeks to understand, estimate and predict the hydrological dynamics to support societies under change. / A necessidade de compreender as relações entre as sociedades e o ciclo hidrológico levou cientistas a elaborarem sofisticados modelos matemáticos para prever como estas relações serão no futuro. Porém, determinadas transformações podem não ser previstas nestes modelos sócio-hidrológicos, sendo necessário recorrer a novos métodos para elaborar cenários. Desta maneira, o presente trabalho busca entender como as sociedades irão modificar a maneira que lidam com os recursos hídricos frente aos vetores de mudanças, como crescimento demográfico, alterações climáticas, mudanças do uso e ocupação do solo, influência de instituições governamentais e padrões de consumo da população. Para isto, este trabalho emprega não somente o uso de dados oficiais, disponibilizados em plataformas públicas, mas também as informações fornecidas por cidadãos através dos conceitos dos observatórios cidadãos, como crowdsourcing, governança participativa e monitoramento ambiental. Estas informações voluntárias são baseadas em suas experiências, conhecimentos e padrões individuais em relação a aspectos necessários a gestão dos recursos hídricos e dos sistemas de saneamento da área de estudo, o município de São Carlos. Ao fim, conclui-se que, a partir da ferramenta Observatório Sócio Hidrológico para Segurança Hídrica (SHOWS), é possível interpretar possíveis trajetórias de coevolução entre os sistemas sociais e naturais de maneira a avaliar os cenários de segurança hídrica. Este estudo integra a componente de segurança hídrica frente às mudanças climáticas do INCT-MC2 (FAPESP 2014/50848-9), contribui para a compreensão dos aspectos sócio hidrológicos do UK Academies (FAPESP 2018/03473-0), além de testar uma nova ferramenta, o SHOWS, que serve de auxílio à tomada de decisão em cidades resilientes, no contexto do CEPID/CEMEAI (FAPESP 2011/51305-0) e do SPRINT-Warwick (FAPESP 2018/08413-6). Em âmbito internacional, é uma contribuição às atividades da década científica \"Panta Rhei – Everything Flows 2013-2022\", promovida pela International Association of Hydrological Sciences, a qual busca entender, estimar e prever dinâmicas hidrológicas para apoiar sociedades sob mudanças.

Esta dissertação teve como objetivo principal avaliar o nível de segurança hídrica do abastecimento público de Porto Nacional/TO, associado à quantidade e qualidade de água bruta da bacia do Córrego São João, seu único manancial de abastecimento. Adotou-se o modelo conceitual e metodológico desenvolvido pelo Grupo de Pesquisa “Água, Gestão e Segurança Hídrica em tempos de Mudanças Ambientais Globais”, do qual a autora é parte integrante. O modelo baseia-se no conceito de segurança hídrica associado, de um lado, a riscos qualiquantitativos da água bruta no ponto de captação e, de outro lado, na sua compatibilidade com o sistema de abastecimento público, em particular os subsistemas de captação e tratamento. Dessa forma, foi possível avaliar, de forma qualitativa, a segurança hídrica do abastecimento de Porto Nacional-TO/Bacia do Córrego São João, perante quatro fatores de estresse: i) pressão sobre as condições ambientais; ii) demanda por água; iii) carga poluidora; e iv) eventos hidrológicos extremos (seca e inundação). Os resultados apontam que o maior estressor de risco à segurança hídrica do abastecimento de Porto Nacional se relaciona à demanda por água, pois a disponibilidade hídrica se encontra no seu limite e o uso da água a montante da captação da ETA continua a crescer. Por outro lado, constatou-se que as condições ambientais da Bacia têm sido progressivamente pressionadas, sobretudo pela agricultura e pastagens, além da notória expansão urbana. A qualidade de água e as secas/estiagens agravam esse quadro. Por fim, o principal resultado aponta para uma aparente compatibilidade entre a disponibilidade qualiquantitativa da água bruta do Córrego São João e os subsistemas de captação e tratamento da ETA 02, atualmente. Contudo, avaliou-se também que a Bacia se encontra próxima ao limite crítico, enquanto manancial de abastecimento de Porto Nacional. / The São João stream is the strategic source for supplying the municipal headquarters of Porto Nacional. This dissertation aimed to identify the main risks and vulnerabilities to the public supply of Porto Nacional / TO, associated to the quantity and quality of raw water of the Córrego São João basin, and to analyze the level of current and future water security of the municipality. We adopted the model developed by members of the Research Group "Water, Water Management and Safety in times of Global Environmental Change".Thus, it was possible to develop a methodology of analysis of water security of urban supplies, specific to the São João Stream basin in Porto Nacional / TO, considering four stress factors considered as the most determinant for current vulnerability: i) pressure On environmental conditions; Ii) demand for water; (Iii) pollutant load and (iv) extreme hydrological events. The results showed that the greatest stressor to the water security of the supply of Porto Nacional, related to the problems of quantity and quality of raw water, is the demand for water. On the other hand, the pressure on the environmental conditions of the Basin was evidenced by the preparation and analysis of maps of land use and occupation in 2006, 2011 and 2016; The evolution (in time and space) of the anthropic occupation with implantation of temporary crops and of pastures, besides the notorious urban expansion, was verified. We did not identify any records of total paralysis of ETA 02. The main result shows that, currently, there is still compatibility between the quali-quantitative availability of the raw water of the São João Stream and the subsystems of capture and treatment of ETA 02.

Discourses on challenges regarding water access in South Africa municipalities are intertwined with the concept of human rights and sustainable development goals. Stakeholders and social scientists continue to debate the plaque of service delivery in regard to water access in the African continent. These debates are framed around discussions to explore suitable governance models that are proficient to promote, protect and rule the right to water access amongst the poor. If South Africa and global curve continue to ignore the pleas of the disadvantaged communities on lack of water access, water scarcity will increase causing droughts and floods. The study investigated the water access, challenges and coping strategies in informal settlements specifically focusing on Iscor informal settlement. The challenges of access to water and coping strategies in informal settlements is a continuous issue of concern in South Africa Municipalities. The study was premised on qualitative approach and employed both the snowball sampling and purposive sampling techniques which refer to key participants in the study area, the government officials and the key individuals interviewed for the research. Data were gathered from a total of 61 participants; interviews were conducted with 20 participants in the study area, 10male focus group and 10 female focus group participants, three key individuals from the study area, three government officials from Department of Water and Sanitation (National and Provincial office), five officials from the City of Tshwane metropolitan Municipality and lastly 10 residents on the impact of research, since the collaboration of the research resulted in the provision of basic amenities to the study area during the course of the research. The study analyses the findings of the stated case studies, with each narrative capturing the themes on Demography; Historical background of the study area; level and impact of water access and coping strategies. The findings from the study reflected the complex range of factors influencing and exacerbating the household resilience to water inaccessibility. The research recommends that the government should implement monitoring programmes and projects which will ensure water accessibility in all informal settlements across the city, provide shelters/RDP houses to the residents, educate and create jobs through support groups and NGOs to the study area. / Development Studies / M.A. Development Studies

Drought is an extreme climate phenomenon that happens slowly and periodically threatens the environmental and socio-economic sectors. Developing countries have experienced crucial conditions in meeting the needs for food, energy, and water security. Natural disasters contribute as risky sources of food insecurity and vulnerability in the Middle East. This dissertation presents a country-level review and quantitative assessment of the current issues associated with the Food-Energy-Water-Security (FEWS) Nexus in the Middle East. In this study, sixteen countries in the Middle East are chosen, namely, Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and Turkey. The most recent datasets are used to study and analyze the factors that have increased the demand to understand and manage the linkage of FEW systems in the region. Water scarcity, extreme events, population growth, urbanization, economic growth, poverty, and political stability are found to be the key drivers of the current challenges in the Middle East. The results suggest that these factors have created a subsequent stress on FEW resources specifically on the water sector in the region. Therefore, more attention is required to sustain the FEW resources and cope with the socio-economic development. Moreover, this study presented a comprehensive assessment of drought and food-water-energy-security nexus across the Middle East using rigorous frameworks. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts are analyzed using different drought indices at multiple timescales over the region for seven decades for the period of 1948-2017. The study further analyzes food insecurity in the Middle East through the exploration of drought (as a water stress factor), energy, and other socio-economic factors in the region. A Bayesian approach is conducted to link all the factors that best predict food insecurity in Middle East pooled from 16 countries in the region. Results reveal that the intensity of agricultural drought are the most aggravated over the region in all cases. Moreover, the results demonstrated the significant impacts of drought (as a water stress factor), agricultural land availability, population growth, livestock, and cereal production on food insecurity in the Middle East.

Recent prolonged droughts make the urgent need to revise the criteria for water use permits in Brazil, especially in basins under conflicts for water use. Mechanisms for water risks transfer are an important adaptation tool. However, in Brazil, there is no established methodology that adapts this technique to assist the water use permit instrument. Moreover, there is no water risk insurance methodology with uncertainty analysis that complements its effectiveness in reducing losses from extreme events. Hydrologic modelling is the basis for development of these tools, which carries uncertainties that must be considered in decision-making. The objectives of this project were: i) coupling climatic, hydrologic and water insurance models to evaluate the use permit decision-making; ii) analyse sensitivity of performance indicators of a water risk insurance model through the application of different hydrologic models driven by climate change projections. The methodology was applied in donor basins of the Cantareira Water Supply System, which supplies water to an important metropolitan region that showed itself vulnerable to hydrologic extremes in the last years. The MHD-INPE and SWAT hydrologic models were applied, driven by the Eta- HadGEM2-ES climate model projections to characterize the future hydrologic regime in the region and also to compare the structure, performances and gaps of the models. Structural differences are most likely the greater responsible for the results differences, though no result could be identified as \"more certain\". With the hydrologic models outputs fitted the the Gumbel extreme values distribution, a proposed insurance fund simulator, MTRH-SHS, was run with 100 equiprobable scenarios of 50-year annual low-flow events to calculated an optimized premium capable of paying all indeminities of hydrologic drought. Besides the future hydrologic regimes, water demand scenarios were also tested. The optimized premiums were compared to the local GDP to assess the apparent affordability of the insurance, with some premium representing up to 0.54% of local GDP, but in the water resources management framework, the decision should be made collectively by several actors within the basin's committee. / Recentes estiagens fazem reconsiderar a necessidade de aperfeiçoar critérios de outorga de água no Brasil, especialmente em bacias com conflitos pelo uso da água. Seguros (transferência de risco) são importante ferramenta de adaptação. Contudo, no Brasil ainda não há metodologia consolidada que adapte esta técnica para auxiliar o instrumento de outorga de recursos hídricos. Ainda, não há metodologia de seguros hídricos com análise de incertezas, complementando sua efetividade ao reduzir os prejuízos advindos de eventos extremos. Modelos hidrológicos são a base de desenvolvimento destas ferramentas e carregam incertezas que devem ser integralizadas nos processos de decisão. Os objetivos deste projeto foram: i) acoplar modelos: climático, hidrológico e de seguros hídricos para a avaliação do processo de decisão de outorga; ii) realizar análise de sensibilidade dos indicadores de desempenho de modelo de seguros hídricos com diferentes modelos hidrológicos sob cenários de mudanças do clima. A metodologia foi aplicada nas bacias doadoras do Sistema Cantareira, que abastece importante região metropolitana e mostrou-se vulnerável a extremos hidrológicos nos últimos anos. Os modelos hidrológicos MHD-INPE e SWAT foram aplicados, forçados pelas projeções climáticas do modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES a fim de caracterizar o regime hidrológico future na região, assim como comparar a estrutura, diferenças e performances dos modelos hidrológicos. As diferenças estruturais são provavelmente as maiores responsáveis pela diferença nos resultados, embora não seja possível apontar um modelo "melhor" que o outro. As saídas dos modelos foram ajustadas na distribuição de Gumbel e utilizada no modelo proposto de simulação de fundo de seguros, MTRH-SHS, rodado com 100 séries equiprováveis de 50 anos de eventos mínimos anuais. A cada série um prêmio otimizado é calculado para cobrir todas as indenizações de seca hidrológica. Além das projeções hidrológicas, cenários de demanda foram testados. Os prêmios otimizados foram comparados com o PIB local para demonstrar a viabilidade em implementar o seguro. Os valores representam até 0.54% do PIB local em um dos casos, mas na gestão de recursos hídricos, a decisão final pela implementação deve ser feita no âmbito do comitê de bacias por múltiplos atores.

Balancing water demand and supply in South Africa involves high levels of uncertainty. The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) is responsible for making decisions to either increase water supply or decrease water demand so as to ensure that sufficient water is available, when and where it is needed. However, no retrospective analyses of such decisions have been found. One way to assess such decisions is to evaluate the associated costs and benefits thereof. Therefore the primary aim of this study is to evaluate the costs and benefits of selected water supply options, and of the decision-making associated with those options. In order to achieve this purpose, four case studies were analysed within a mixed-methods research paradigm, which used both quantitative and qualitative methods, including unit reference value (URV) analysis, inter- and intra-case analysis and content analysis to examine the success of the decisions made. The four case studies were conducted on the Inyaka, Nandoni, Berg and De Hoop dams and their catchments. Firstly, estimated and actual project costs were compared using unit reference analysis and inter-case analyses. Secondly, the reduction of mean annual runoff (MAR) caused by invasive alien plants (IAPs) and the cost of clearing them in the dam catchments were evaluated using inter-case analyses. Information thus gathered was used together with data from DWS documentation and the results of interviews with ten key specialists, to analyse the decision-making process that led to the decision to build De Hoop Dam (the most recent case study). The rational decision-making model (RDMM) was used as a framework within which to analyse and evaluate this decision-making process. This study has also demonstrated how the RDMM can be used to assess decision-making associated with water supply development. The results of this study show that there is considerable variation of estimated costs (at the time that the decision to build the dam was taken) in relation to the actual costs of building the dams and that Ministers were not put in a position to understand the full long-term costs or the opportunity costs of the proposed dams. Furthermore, the most recent IAP data (2008) shows that the impact on water security by IAPs could not offset the water security resulting from building each of the four dams. However, if IAP management is not continued in these catchments, the projected reduction of MAR by IAPs will compromise water security within 45 years. Given the almost exponential spread and densification of IAPs, together with their long-term impact on MAR and increased costs of controlling them, it is clear that IAP management should have been factored into water supply decision-making from the outset. In the analysis of the decision to build the De Hoop Dam, the results show that while the decision-making process that culminated in the decision to build the dam did not follow the steps of the RDMM, DWS appears to have followed a somewhat similar approach. It was found that while there was a need for the provision of additional water in the Olifants catchment, this need was overstated and the resulting overestimation caused the scale and size of the dam to be larger than it could and probably should have been. Additionally, it appears that DWS‘s decision to build the De Hoop Dam themselves, rather than having it built by the private sector, may have been less than optimal. It is recommended that, in future decision-making, DWS needs to incorporate multiple alternative options into the same solution, and to ensure that decision-makers are put into a position to make informed decisions, including adequate consideration of externalities. Furthermore, DWS needs to employ decision-making models such as the RDMM to facilitate retrospective analyses to improve their institutional knowledge. Keywords: water resources management, dams, invasive alien plants, decision-making, unit reference values, rational decision-making model.

En Latinoamérica, la gobernanza del agua se enfrenta con el problema del aumento de la demanda de recursos hídricos, la creciente variabilidad hidrológica en un contexto de cambio climático, y la contaminación que sigue proliferándose. Por lo tanto, se observa una creciente escasez de agua, en cantidad y calidad, generando competencia y conflictos entre los actores involucrados. El problema coincide con el urgente temario internacional de la concentración de tierra, que está muy entrelazado con la concentración del agua en pocas manos. La globalización y un clima político neoliberal facilitan que actores poderosos acumulen derechos y volúmenes de agua a expensas de usuarios de menor poder. Este documento tiene por objetivo examinar el contexto nacional poniendo atención especial en la acumulación en casos ejemplares de la costa peruana. Se basa en revisión de literatura, informes y archivos pertinentes. Concluye que la distribución injusta de tierra y agua, a expensas de familias rurales y de territorios comunales e indígenas, constituye una grave amenaza para la sostenibilidad ambiental, la seguridad hídrica y la seguridad alimentaria. / In Latin America, water governance is facing the problem of rising demand for water resources, increased hydrological variability in a context of climate change, proliferating contamination and thus —in general— increasing scarcity of water in terms of quantity, quality, and opportunity. This creates competition and conflicts among stakeholders. The issue coincides with the urgent international problem of concentration of land, which is heavily intertwined with the concentration of water in the hands of the few. Globalization and a neoliberal political climate facilitate that powerful actors accumulate water rights and volumes at the expense of less powerful water users. This paper examines some exemplary situations in Peru. It is based on literature review, reports and archival research. The paper concludes that the unfair distribution of land and water, at the expense of rural families, communities and indigenous territories, constitutes a serious threat to environmental sustainability, water security and food security.

Recent prolonged droughts make the urgent need to revise the criteria for water use permits in Brazil, especially in basins under conflicts for water use. Mechanisms for water risks transfer are an important adaptation tool. However, in Brazil, there is no established methodology that adapts this technique to assist the water use permit instrument. Moreover, there is no water risk insurance methodology with uncertainty analysis that complements its effectiveness in reducing losses from extreme events. Hydrologic modelling is the basis for development of these tools, which carries uncertainties that must be considered in decision-making. The objectives of this project were: i) coupling climatic, hydrologic and water insurance models to evaluate the use permit decision-making; ii) analyse sensitivity of performance indicators of a water risk insurance model through the application of different hydrologic models driven by climate change projections. The methodology was applied in donor basins of the Cantareira Water Supply System, which supplies water to an important metropolitan region that showed itself vulnerable to hydrologic extremes in the last years. The MHD-INPE and SWAT hydrologic models were applied, driven by the Eta- HadGEM2-ES climate model projections to characterize the future hydrologic regime in the region and also to compare the structure, performances and gaps of the models. Structural differences are most likely the greater responsible for the results differences, though no result could be identified as \"more certain\". With the hydrologic models outputs fitted the the Gumbel extreme values distribution, a proposed insurance fund simulator, MTRH-SHS, was run with 100 equiprobable scenarios of 50-year annual low-flow events to calculated an optimized premium capable of paying all indeminities of hydrologic drought. Besides the future hydrologic regimes, water demand scenarios were also tested. The optimized premiums were compared to the local GDP to assess the apparent affordability of the insurance, with some premium representing up to 0.54% of local GDP, but in the water resources management framework, the decision should be made collectively by several actors within the basin's committee. / Recentes estiagens fazem reconsiderar a necessidade de aperfeiçoar critérios de outorga de água no Brasil, especialmente em bacias com conflitos pelo uso da água. Seguros (transferência de risco) são importante ferramenta de adaptação. Contudo, no Brasil ainda não há metodologia consolidada que adapte esta técnica para auxiliar o instrumento de outorga de recursos hídricos. Ainda, não há metodologia de seguros hídricos com análise de incertezas, complementando sua efetividade ao reduzir os prejuízos advindos de eventos extremos. Modelos hidrológicos são a base de desenvolvimento destas ferramentas e carregam incertezas que devem ser integralizadas nos processos de decisão. Os objetivos deste projeto foram: i) acoplar modelos: climático, hidrológico e de seguros hídricos para a avaliação do processo de decisão de outorga; ii) realizar análise de sensibilidade dos indicadores de desempenho de modelo de seguros hídricos com diferentes modelos hidrológicos sob cenários de mudanças do clima. A metodologia foi aplicada nas bacias doadoras do Sistema Cantareira, que abastece importante região metropolitana e mostrou-se vulnerável a extremos hidrológicos nos últimos anos. Os modelos hidrológicos MHD-INPE e SWAT foram aplicados, forçados pelas projeções climáticas do modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES a fim de caracterizar o regime hidrológico future na região, assim como comparar a estrutura, diferenças e performances dos modelos hidrológicos. As diferenças estruturais são provavelmente as maiores responsáveis pela diferença nos resultados, embora não seja possível apontar um modelo "melhor" que o outro. As saídas dos modelos foram ajustadas na distribuição de Gumbel e utilizada no modelo proposto de simulação de fundo de seguros, MTRH-SHS, rodado com 100 séries equiprováveis de 50 anos de eventos mínimos anuais. A cada série um prêmio otimizado é calculado para cobrir todas as indenizações de seca hidrológica. Além das projeções hidrológicas, cenários de demanda foram testados. Os prêmios otimizados foram comparados com o PIB local para demonstrar a viabilidade em implementar o seguro. Os valores representam até 0.54% do PIB local em um dos casos, mas na gestão de recursos hídricos, a decisão final pela implementação deve ser feita no âmbito do comitê de bacias por múltiplos atores.

Drinking water supply insecurity is globally on the rise, and prevalent in most low and middle-income urban areas. Multiple responses have emerged to cope with the lack of a reliable and equitable supply of safe and sufficient drinking water in cities, which presents a wide range of social-ecological implications. Yet, many of the analyses to date are focused on predominantly technological, ecological, and economic perspectives, overlooking broader cultural and political dimensions. What are the elements and the interrelationship between them that sustain the lack of drinking water supply security at an urban scale? The empirical case study is located in Mexico City, the capital city of one of the most drinking water-insecure countries globally and among the world’s five largest metropolitan areas. Qualitative data is elicited from a literature review and semi-structured interviews with key experts and urban stakeholders. The results provide an integrated understanding of the proposed system structure that created and maintain the water supply problem in the long-term. Hindrances include knowledge lock-ins and critical dynamics that inhibit the political support to transition towards a drinking water security scenario. This study shows that drinking water supply crisis in the study area and other cities with similar conditions need to be understood as multi-dimensional and from a system perspective, by challenging underlying assumptions and embracing interconnectedness. Key feedback mechanisms are presented in causal loop diagrams, allowing the exploration of higher-order leverage points to reduce existing path-dependencies as one increasingly important research area, and potentially relevant for decision-makers.

Thesis (M. Sc. (Geography)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / In South Africa, inadequate water supply is currently a national crisis hence, referred to as a water stressed country. The study’s aim was to assess water supply constraints in Giyani Township of the Greater Giyani Local Municipality that falls under the Mopani District Municipality. The Constitution of the country recognises water as a constitutional right. However, many households in Giyani Township do not receive regular water supply. In some communities, water infrastructure is available but not frequently maintained and that led to irregularity in water supply. The study used qualitative and quantitative research approaches. Self-administered structured questionnaire that consisted of open-ended and close-ended questions helped to collect primary data from the 382 sampled respondents of Giyani Township. Key Informants Interview (interview of people who are authorities responsible for water supply services) supplied information with regard to water delivery services in Giyani Township. Observation method assisted in the evaluation of the condition of the water supply infrastructures as well as the availability of water on a daily basis. Findings of the study indicated that most residents relied on piped water from Giyani Local Municipality, although water was not always readily available from the municipality. Incorrect billing for water services and delays in completion of water relief projects in addition to natural causes and lack of skilled workers were some of the causes that affected the regular supply of water in the township. The study concluded that Greater Giyani Local Municipality experienced a problem of water service delivery that impact negatively on communities and development as a whole The study recommended that the community should voice out grievances about the irregular water supply and request for further clarifications from the municipality during community meetings.. Keywords: Water, water constraints, water supply, Greater Giyani Local Municipality.