Water is a basic human necessity and water resources are becoming scarce, limited and in some cases expensive. The SADC region is a very dry and semi-arid region, which places pressure on the region’s water resources and security. Water is a key ingredient for SADC to achieve their regional goals and water security should receive high priority in this region. As SADC’s economic development will be defined by the availability of water it is important to define ‘water security’ for this region. SADC has a large number of shared water resources and the scarcity of water has fostered cooperation between the member states. Achieving water security will rely on the legal instruments that are available to the SADC region. These legal instruments focus on cooperation, integration and management of transboundary rivers. In this dissertation various international, regional and legal instruments were discussed in terms of the definition for ‘water security’ in the SADC region. This dissertation does not only focus on the legal framework for water security but also where this normative framework failed to address the elements of water security. Two case studies will be done on transboundary rivers (Limpopo and Okavango River) to illustrate how cooperation and agreements between countries could lead to ensuring a water secure region. RBO’s are at the core of IWRM and the governance of transboundary rivers will rely on the commitment to the agreements between these countries. OKACOM and LIMCOM are both discussed in terms of their legal frameworks as well as measured against the main elements of water security. This study will thus, by examining the definition of water security and applying it to the legal framework provided for by SADC, establish whether SADC’s normative framework effectively provides for water security. The case studies will provide a practical example of wherethe RBO’s have utilised the normative framework provided, and whether RBO’s facilitate or enable water security in this region. / LLM (Environmental Law and Governance), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Water is a basic human necessity and water resources are becoming scarce, limited and in some cases expensive. The SADC region is a very dry and semi-arid region, which places pressure on the region’s water resources and security. Water is a key ingredient for SADC to achieve their regional goals and water security should receive high priority in this region. As SADC’s economic development will be defined by the availability of water it is important to define ‘water security’ for this region. SADC has a large number of shared water resources and the scarcity of water has fostered cooperation between the member states. Achieving water security will rely on the legal instruments that are available to the SADC region. These legal instruments focus on cooperation, integration and management of transboundary rivers. In this dissertation various international, regional and legal instruments were discussed in terms of the definition for ‘water security’ in the SADC region. This dissertation does not only focus on the legal framework for water security but also where this normative framework failed to address the elements of water security. Two case studies will be done on transboundary rivers (Limpopo and Okavango River) to illustrate how cooperation and agreements between countries could lead to ensuring a water secure region. RBO’s are at the core of IWRM and the governance of transboundary rivers will rely on the commitment to the agreements between these countries. OKACOM and LIMCOM are both discussed in terms of their legal frameworks as well as measured against the main elements of water security. This study will thus, by examining the definition of water security and applying it to the legal framework provided for by SADC, establish whether SADC’s normative framework effectively provides for water security. The case studies will provide a practical example of wherethe RBO’s have utilised the normative framework provided, and whether RBO’s facilitate or enable water security in this region. / LLM (Environmental Law and Governance), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Water distribution systems are vulnerable to intentional, along with accidental, contamination of the water supply. Contamination warning systems (CWS) are strategies to lessen the effects of contamination by delivering early indication of an event. Online quality monitoring, a network of sensors that can assess water quality and alert an operator of contamination, is a critical component of CWS, but utilities are faced with the decision of what locations are optimal for deployment of sensors. A sensor placement algorithm was developed and implemented in a commercial network distribution model (i.e. KYPIPE) to aid small utilities in sensor placement. The developed sensor placement tool was then validated using 12 small distribution system models and multiple contamination scenarios for the placement of one and two sensors. This thesis also addresses the issue that many sensor placement algorithms require calibrated hydraulic/water quality models, but small utilities do not always possess the financial resources or expertise to build calibrated models. Because of such limitations, a simple procedure is proposed to recommend optimal placement of a sensor without the need for a model or complicated algorithm. The procedure uses simple information about the geometry of the system and does not require explicit information about flow dynamics.

Water-resource managers are facing unprecedented challenges in accommodating the large uncertainties associated with climate change in their planning decisions. Integration of climate risk information is a pre-requisite for water resources planning under a changing climate, yet this information is often presented outside the decision-making context and in a way which is not relevant for the decision at hand. Furthermore, there is a lack of approaches that explicitly evaluate the impact of nonstationary climate change on decision-relevant metrics and variables. This thesis describes novel methods for incorporating uncertain information on climate change in water resources decision-making and estimating climate change-related risks in water resources systems. The main hypotheses of this thesis are that: (1) shifting away from planning approaches based on abstract supply-demand balance metrics towards risk-based approaches that quantify the frequency and severity of observable outcomes of concern to water users, such as water shortages, can help decision-makers establish preferences among actions and identify cost and climate risk reduction trade-offs (2) adopting risk-based planning methods allows water managers to characterize and account for different sources of uncertainty in the water planning process and to understand their impact on outcomes of value and decisions. To test these hypotheses, this thesis presents an analytic approach for (1) incorporating nonstationary climate change projections and other uncertain factors related to demand changes into water resources decision-making, (2) understanding trade-offs between benefits of climate risk-reduction and cost of climate change adaptation, and (3) characterizing water supply vulnerability to unprecedented drought conditions. The approach is applied to London's urban water supply system located in the Thames river basin, south-east of England. Results from this thesis demonstrate how a systematic characterization of uncertainties related to future hydro-climatic conditions can help decision-makers compare and choose between a range of possible water management options and decide upon the scale and timing of implementation that meet decision-makers' risk tolerability. Additionally, results show the benefits of combining climate information with vulnerability analysis to test decisions' robustness to unprecedented drought conditions. The application of the proposed methods to the London urban water supply system suggests that the risks of exceeding reliability targets in the future will increase if no further supply or demand side actions were to be taken. Results from the case study also show that changes in demand due to population growth could have greater impacts on water security than climate change and that small reductions in climate-related risk may come at significantly higher costs. It should be stressed that the results from the case study are based on a simplified representation of London's water supply system and that they should be further tested with the full system model employed by the water utility which implements more complex operational rules.

RABELO, U. P. Segurança hídrica no Ceará: análise de cenários e de alternativas de intervenção. 2017. 208 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia Civil: Recursos Hídricos)–Centro de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2017. / Submitted by Edineuza Silva (edineuza@deha.ufc.br) on 2017-08-24T12:30:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_uprabelo.pdf: 3647229 bytes, checksum: bdd883fe6ccb9bf20abdbab89d012ef6 (MD5) / Rejected by Marlene Sousa (mmarlene@ufc.br), reason: Prezado Udinart, Existe uma orientação para que normalizemos as dissertações e teses da UFC, em suas paginas pré-textuais e lista de referencias, pelas regras da ABNT. Por esse motivo, sugerimos consultar o modelo de template, para ajudá-lo nesta tarefa, disponível em: http://www.biblioteca.ufc.br/educacao-de-usuarios/1234-templates Vamos agora as correções sempre de acordo com o template: 1. Nas listas de figuras, tabelas e gráficos observe o alinhamento da margem, de modo que quando aumentar o número de dígitos das figuras elas fiquem no mesmo alinhamento de quando tinham um dígito. Ex Figura 1 e 10. Quando o título da figura, da tabela ou gráfico não couber na mesma linha, sua continuação deve ficar na mesma margem da primeira letra da linha de cima e não voltar para a margem do F de Figura ou do T de Tabela. Nas listas de tabelas e gráficos não há necessidade de nomear todas as folhas de continuação. Nomeie somente na primeira folha da lista. 2. No sumário coloque o alinhamento de modo que quando aumentar o número de dígitos das seções elas fiquem no mesmo alinhamento de quando tinham apenas um dígito. Nas seções terciárias (3 dígitos) quando colocar o título em itálico, os números das seções também ficam em itálico. As referencias e os Apêndices ficam no mesmo alinhamento da Conclusão. 3. Na lista de REFERÊNCIAS, quando se tratar de um artigo de periódico, o que fica em negrito não é o titulo do artigo e sim, o nome da revista. Corrigir em toda a lista. As informações relativas a volume, número e páginas dos artigos de revista, devem aparecer exclusivamente como v. , n. p. corrigir em toda a lista quando essas informações estiverem fora desse padrão. A informação de páginas deve vir antes do ano. corrigir em toda a lista. Att. Marlene Rocha 3366-9620 on 2017-08-24T14:05:01Z (GMT) / Submitted by Edineuza Silva (edineuza@deha.ufc.br) on 2017-08-25T12:09:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_uprabelo (2).pdf: 3753031 bytes, checksum: 7f7df03f32c4240be6bbc3aaac513544 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marlene Sousa (mmarlene@ufc.br) on 2017-08-25T13:01:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_uprabelo (2).pdf: 3753031 bytes, checksum: 7f7df03f32c4240be6bbc3aaac513544 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-25T13:01:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_uprabelo (2).pdf: 3753031 bytes, checksum: 7f7df03f32c4240be6bbc3aaac513544 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-22 / Drought is a problem that has caused damage to the population of Ceará since its Settlement. Historically the state has suffered from the interannual rainfall variability, Going through several periods of scarcity, which causes lack of water for population consumption, Loss of crops and consequently intense migration. Between the years of 2012 and 2016, the Drought, with precipitation below the historical average during The rainy season, the period of greatest rainfall in the state, with the aggravation of three Of these five were among the ten years with the lowest rainfall observed in Ceará. THE Consequence of this prolonged shortage period was the Reservoirs of the state, main responsible for water maintenance. This fact ignited the The search for new alternatives for the state in drought mitigation that historically On the basis of solutions already used in other countries and those who have been successful Lack of water, including in poor availability and infrastructure The one from Ceará. In this sense, a methodology was adopted to analyze the supply scenarios x Demand, with a study horizon between the years 2020 and 2050, considering the forecasts Of growth of the main demands and the alternatives of offers already used in other Countries that have achieved results. The demands and offers, calculated in billions of meters Were projected and compared year by year between 2020 and 2050, from the Of mitigation alternatives, both for standardized scenarios and for drought scenarios Severe and prolonged dry periods. Complementary to the technical analysis was a Comparison of the implementation costs of each of the alternatives. The combination of these two Generated a ranking of the mitigation alternatives, in order to select the most effective ones And which should focus the state's efforts on investment. The Transposition of São Francisco River and improving the efficiency of irrigation systems presented themselves as The best solutions for water security in the state during the study horizon. O Investment in groundwater, water reuse and demand reduction Populations are of greater importance for future scenarios and for drought situations. Prolonged periods. The desalination of sea water was the alternative with less effect, Mainly because it is still complex and expensive, but also important in Future scenarios. The largest water deficits were found in the final years of each decade. / A seca é um problema que tem causado prejuízos à população do Ceará desde o seu povoamento. Historicamente o estado tem sofrido com a variabilidade interanual de chuvas, passando por vários períodos de escassez, o que causa falta de água para consumo populacional, perda de lavouras e consequentemente intensa migração. Entre os anos de 2012 e 2016, o estado passou por um período de seca prolongada, com precipitações abaixo da média histórica durante a quadra chuvosa, período de maior ocorrência de chuvas no estado, com o agravante de três desses cinco estarem entre os dez anos com menores precipitações observadas no Ceará. A consequência direta desse período de escassez prolongada foi o quase esvaziamento dos reservatórios do estado, principais responsáveis pela manutenção hídrica. Tal fato acendeu o alerta para a busca de novas alternativas para o estado na mitigação das secas que historicamente ocorrem, tendo como base soluções já utilizadas em outros países e quem têm obtido sucesso com relação à falta de água, inclusive em cenários de disponibilidade e infraestrutura piores que o do Ceará. Nesse sentido foi adotada uma metodologia para análise dos cenários de oferta x demanda, com um horizonte de estudo entre os anos de 2020 e 2050, considerando as previsões de crescimento das principais demandas e as alternativas de ofertas já utilizadas em outros países e que têm obtido resultado. As demandas e ofertas, calculadas em bilhões de metros cúbicos, foram projetadas e comparadas ano a ano entre 2020 e 2050, a partir da combinação das alternativas de mitigação, tanto para cenários normatizados, quanto para cenários de secas severas pontuais e secas prolongadas. Complementar às análises técnicas foi feito um comparativo de custos de implantação de cada uma das alternativas. A combinação dessas duas análises gerou um ranking das alternativas de mitigação, de modo a selecionar as mais efetivas e que deverão concentrar os esforços do estado em termos de investimento. A Transposição do Rio São Francisco e a melhoria da eficiência dos sistemas de irrigação se apresentaram como as melhores soluções para segurança hídrica do estado durante o horizonte de estudo. O investimento nas águas subterrâneas, no reuso de água e na diminuição da demanda populacional possuem uma importância maior para os cenários futuros e para situações de secas prolongadas. A dessalinização da água do mar foi a alternativa com menor efeito, principalmente por ainda ser complexa e de elevado custo, mas também possui importância em cenários futuros. Os maiores déficits hídricos foram encontrados nos anos finais de cada década.

Submitted by Jean Medeiros (jeanletras@uepb.edu.br) on 2017-12-04T12:13:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Éder Geovani da Paz Oliveira.pdf: 28934791 bytes, checksum: a7ab220efc26e59d4549d7150f2723f8 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Secta BC (secta.csu.bc@uepb.edu.br) on 2017-12-06T18:38:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Éder Geovani da Paz Oliveira.pdf: 28934791 bytes, checksum: a7ab220efc26e59d4549d7150f2723f8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-12-06T18:38:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Éder Geovani da Paz Oliveira.pdf: 28934791 bytes, checksum: a7ab220efc26e59d4549d7150f2723f8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The spatial and temporal irregularity in the rainfall regime in the northeastern semi-arid region contributes to increasing water scarcity, whose water insecurity impedes growth and economic and social development. In view of this, it was necessary to make an environmental diagnosis in the final segment of the final stretches of the East of the Transposition of the Waters of the São Francisco River and the initial of the Paraíba River, these determinations being the main objectives. For the execution of this work the method of inductive analysis was used starting from the readings and analyzes of official documents of the Project of Integration of the River São Francisco, besides visitation, in loco, with photographic records of the occurrences of impacts and the environmental degradation in said segment. The data was organized using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and the spatial analysis using satellite imagery from Landsat 8, Land Imager Operational Sensor. The technology of the geoprocessing of satellite images allowed making thematic maps, with the indicators of use of the ground and vegetal cover. Five cities located in the initial section of the high course were chosen to analyze some water characteristics such as: annual rainfall median, individual percentage of contribution in the drainage basin, potential rainfall and their respective production of sewage and evolution of basic sanitation. The main results showed different environmental impacts in the construction of the East axis, in the degradation caused by anthropogenic actions in the high river bed of the Paraíba River and its tributaries, including the garbage and sewage dumps of the cities that make up the referred drainage basin. The use of digital and geoprocessing technologies made it possible to prepare thematic maps of vegetation cover and land use, to estimate some pluvial and hydrological indicators, as well as the evolution of basic sanitation associated to the anthropic deleterious effects to the aquatic environment. The contribution of the transposed waters of the São Francisco River is undoubtedly the water security for the public water supply in Campina Grande and its surroundings, besides guaranteeing water for local sustainable development purposes. However, there is a need to apply the water management criteria in an integrated, efficient and sustainable way throughout the upper reaches of the Paraíba River in order to avoid diversion and/or waste of transposed water. / A irregularidade espacial e temporal no regime pluvial no semiárido nordestino contribui para crescente escassez de água, cuja insegurança hídrica impede o crescimento e o desenvolvimento econômico e social. Diante disto, houve a necessidade de fazer um diagnóstico ambiental no segmento final dos trechos final do Eixo Leste da Transposição das Águas do Rio São Francisco e inicial do Rio Paraíba, sendo essas determinações os objetivos principais. Para a execução deste trabalho foi utilizado o método de análise indutiva partindo das leituras e análises de documentos oficiais do Projeto de Integração do Rio São Francisco, além de visitação, in loco, com registros fotográficos das ocorrências de impactos e da degradação ambiental no referido segmento. A organização dos dados foi feita, utilizando-se o Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG) e as análises espaciais através de imagens de satélites do Landsat 8, sensor Operacional Land Imager. A tecnologia do geoprocessamento de imagens de satélite permitiu confeccionar mapas temáticos, com os indicadores de uso do solo e cobertura vegetal. Cinco cidades localizadas no trecho inicial do Alto Curso foram escolhidas para análises de algumas características hídricas tais como: medianas anuais de chuvas, percentual individual de contribuição na bacia drenagem, vazão pluvial potencial e as suas respectivas produções de esgotos e evolução do saneamento básico. Os principais resultados mostraram diferentes impactos ambientais na construção do Eixo Leste, na degradação oriundas por ações antrópicas no leito do Alto Curso do rio Paraíba e nos seus afluentes, incluindo-se os despejos de lixo e esgoto das cidades que compõem a referida bacia de drenagem. O uso das tecnologias digital e de geoprocessamento permitiram confeccionar mapas temáticas de cobertura vegetal e de uso do solo, estimar alguns indicadores pluvial e hídrico, além da evolução do saneamento básico associado aos efeitos deletérios antrópicos ao ambiente aquático. O aporte das águas transpostas do Rio São Francisco é, sem dúvida, a segurança hídrica para o abastecimento público de água em Campina Grande e dos seus arredores, além de garantir água para fins de desenvolvimento sustentável local. No entanto, há necessidade de aplicar os critérios de gestão hídrica de forma integrada, eficiente e sustentável em todo o trecho do Alto Curso do rio Paraíba a fim de evitar o desvio e/ou o desperdício da água transposta.

Water quality is an essential component of vibrant societies and ecosystems. For decades, researchers, managers, and policymakers around the world have struggled to accelerate societal progress while preserving and enhancing water quality and human health. This thesis consists of two studies that I hope will contribute to better understanding, policy, and management. In the first study, I evaluated spatial and temporal patterns in global water quality and their relationship to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, as a metric of socioeconomic development status. Using global water quality datasets containing over 2.7 million observations, I tested the Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which predicts that environmental degradation is highest at intermediate levels of socioeconomic development. I found that 46% of pollutants persisted at elevated concentrations despite GDP per capita. Because of this, high income countries experience a false sense of water security as water regulation violations are common on a global scale. In the second study, I measured waterborne pathogens in Guayaquil, the largest city in Ecuador. With a population of over 3 million and distinct hydrology from monsoonal rains and estuarine flooding, the Guayaquil metropolitan area faces drinking water and sanitation challenges similar to much of the developing world. I found that 100% of the samples we collected had unsafe total coliform counts. Water pollution is widespread and is a result of careless action. Moving forward, chronic pollution can be prevented with proper legislation that holds governments, companies, and individuals accountable.

雖然政治學界廣泛地討論水資源安全的問題, 可是迄今為止絕大部分的研究採取合作衝突相兩者互排斥的分析方法。有些學派主張水資源短缺一定導致衝突, 而制度主義學派認為在大多數情況下水資源安全推動國際合作。環境安全與衝突研究中的科學共識認為水資源不是衝突的起因而是合作的理由, 於是繼續提倡合作衝突兩者相互排斥的概念。筆者認為如今的非黑即白分析尚未能夠正確描述水資源安全的衝突合作相互作用的實際。碰到了這個研究空白的問題, 筆者應用 Naho Mirumachi發展的「TWINS」架構來檢視印度-巴基斯但與印度-孟加拉關係中的水資源安全。「TWINS」架構讓我們深入地檢視「1996年12月12日印孟簽署分享恆河水條約」與「1960印度河水域條約」這兩個條約。新世紀增長需求跟耗盡水資源的問題越來越清楚地標明, 根據這兩個條約，水資源的供水與解決衝突能力有限。雖然被視為跨界河川合作的成功故事, 可是這兩個條約不足消除潛在衝突, 而進一步表明衝與合作是同時存在的。最近印度政府表明關於水資源的政策改變, 比如最佳地利用1960印度河水域條約的規定或清拆法拉卡堰。為了防止安全化過程升高, 立即開展有意義的對話至關重要。 關鍵字: 印度-巴基斯但、印度-孟加拉、水資源安全、TWINS

Orientador: Cláudio Antônio Di Mauro / Resumo: A criação de subsídios informacionais precisos e transparentes para gestão do saneamento e recursos hídricos é uma perspectiva intrínseca do planejamento e execução de políticas cidadãs, que atendem as exigências da sociedade para o meio ambiente equilibrado e saudável a todos. Entender como se comportam as demandas de água e sua distribuição espacial é um desafio constante que aprimora os métodos de ações; principalmente se o contexto for de crise hídrica e primazia por desenvolvimento sustentável com uso racional dos recursos naturais. Este trabalho utiliza os dados do cadastro de faturamento de água do Departamento Municipal de Água e Esgoto (DMAE), no tocante ao consumo domiciliar micromedido em Uberlândia (MG) – Brasil, no período 2006-2016. Informações como: quantidade de hidrômetros, economias, volume consumido dos bairros e suas habitações, e análises estatísticas da série histórica (organizados por setores: norte, sul, leste, oeste e centro), permitiram o diagnóstico da demanda residencial de água na cidade. Discutir e propor instrumentos para melhor controle do abastecimento e uso da água contribui estrategicamente no saneamento e promoção urbana/ambiental; visto que a requisição per capita por recursos hídricos no município é alta e cresce em ritmos alarmantes, revelando uso e apropriação inadequados. A metodologia da pesquisa inclui consulta a referências bibliográficas sobre o tema; criação do software experimental “CONTÁGUA” para concepção da base de dados; empr... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The creation of precise and transparent informational subsidies for the management of sanitation and water resources is an intrinsic perspective of the planning and execution of citizen policies that meet the demands of society for a balanced and healthy environment for all. Understanding how water demands and their spatial distribution behave is a constant challenge that improves methods of action; especially if the context is water crisis and primacy for sustainable development with rational use of natural resources. This work uses the water billing data of the Municipal Department of Water and Sewage (DMAE), in relation to household consumption micromeasured in Uberlândia (MG) - Brazil, in the period 2006-2016. Information such as the number of hydrometers, economys of water, volume consumed in the neighborhoods and their dwellings, and statistical analyzes of the historical series (organized by sectors: north, south, east, west and center) allowed the diagnosis of residential water demand in the city. Discussing and proposing instruments for better control of water supply and use contributes strategically to sanitation and urban/environmental promotion; since the per capita requisition for water resources in the municipality is high and grows at alarming rates, revealing inadequate use and appropriation. The research methodology includes reference to bibliographical references on the subject; creation of the experimental software "CONTÁGUA" for designing the database; use... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

The need to better comprehend the relationship between societies and the hydrological cycle led scientists to develop sophisticated mathematical models in order to predict how these relationships will be in the future. However, some transformations might not be predicted in such socio-hydrological models, what makes necessary to search for new methods to build scenarios. In this way, the present work seeks to understand how societies will change the way they deal with water resources regarding different drivers of change, such as population growth, changes in climate, land cover, patterns of consumption and influence of governmental institutions. To do so, this work employs not only official data sets that are public available, but also information provided by citizens through citizen observatories concepts of crowdsourcing, participatory governance and environmental monitoring. Such volunteered information is based on their own experiences, knowledge and individual patterns regarding water management and sanitation aspects from the study area, São Carlos city. The conclusions reveal that the new tool presented in this work, the Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS), makes possible to outline future trajectories of coevolution in coupled human-water system and provide assessment on water security scenarios. This work integrates the water security component facing climate changes, from INCT-MC2 (FAPESP 2014/50848-9), contributes to better comprehend socio hydrological aspects in UK Academies (FAPESP 2018/03473-0) and provides a new tool, the SHOWS, which assists decision makers in resilient cities, in the context of CEPID/CEMEAI (FAPESP 2011/51305-0) e do SPRINT-Warwick (FAPESP 2018/08413-6). At international level, it is a contribution to the activities of \"Panta Rhei – Everything Flows 2013-2022\", promoted by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, which seeks to understand, estimate and predict the hydrological dynamics to support societies under change. / A necessidade de compreender as relações entre as sociedades e o ciclo hidrológico levou cientistas a elaborarem sofisticados modelos matemáticos para prever como estas relações serão no futuro. Porém, determinadas transformações podem não ser previstas nestes modelos sócio-hidrológicos, sendo necessário recorrer a novos métodos para elaborar cenários. Desta maneira, o presente trabalho busca entender como as sociedades irão modificar a maneira que lidam com os recursos hídricos frente aos vetores de mudanças, como crescimento demográfico, alterações climáticas, mudanças do uso e ocupação do solo, influência de instituições governamentais e padrões de consumo da população. Para isto, este trabalho emprega não somente o uso de dados oficiais, disponibilizados em plataformas públicas, mas também as informações fornecidas por cidadãos através dos conceitos dos observatórios cidadãos, como crowdsourcing, governança participativa e monitoramento ambiental. Estas informações voluntárias são baseadas em suas experiências, conhecimentos e padrões individuais em relação a aspectos necessários a gestão dos recursos hídricos e dos sistemas de saneamento da área de estudo, o município de São Carlos. Ao fim, conclui-se que, a partir da ferramenta Observatório Sócio Hidrológico para Segurança Hídrica (SHOWS), é possível interpretar possíveis trajetórias de coevolução entre os sistemas sociais e naturais de maneira a avaliar os cenários de segurança hídrica. Este estudo integra a componente de segurança hídrica frente às mudanças climáticas do INCT-MC2 (FAPESP 2014/50848-9), contribui para a compreensão dos aspectos sócio hidrológicos do UK Academies (FAPESP 2018/03473-0), além de testar uma nova ferramenta, o SHOWS, que serve de auxílio à tomada de decisão em cidades resilientes, no contexto do CEPID/CEMEAI (FAPESP 2011/51305-0) e do SPRINT-Warwick (FAPESP 2018/08413-6). Em âmbito internacional, é uma contribuição às atividades da década científica \"Panta Rhei – Everything Flows 2013-2022\", promovida pela International Association of Hydrological Sciences, a qual busca entender, estimar e prever dinâmicas hidrológicas para apoiar sociedades sob mudanças.