Cette thèse porte sur inférence statistique, les méthodes bootstrap et l’analyse multivariée dans le cadre des processus semi-markoviens. Les applications principales concernent un problème de la mécanique de la rupture. Ce travail a une contribution double. La première partie concerne la modélisation stochastique du phénomène de la propagation de fissure de fatigue. Une équation différentielle stochastique décrit le mécanisme de la dégradation et le caractère aléatoire inné du phénomène est traité par un processus de perturbation. Sous l'hypothèse que ce processus soit un processus markovien (ou semi-markovien) de saut, la fiabilité du modèle est étudiée en faisant usage de la théorie du renouvellement markovien et une nouvelle méthode, plus rapide, de calcul de fiabilité est proposée avec l'algorithme correspondant. La méthode et le modèle pour le processus markovien de perturbation sont validés sur des données expérimentales. Ensuite, la consistance forte des estimateurs des moindres carrés des paramètres du modèle est obtenue en supposant que les résidus du modèle stochastique de régression, dans lequel le modèle initial est transformé, soient des différences de martingales. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, nous avons abordé le problème difficile de l'approximation de la distribution limite de certains estimateurs non paramétriques des noyaux semi-markoviens ou certaines fonctionnelles via la méthode bootstrap pondérée dans un cadre général. Des applications de ces résultats sur des problèmes statistiques sont données pour la construction de bandes de confiance, les tests statistiques, le calcul de la valeur p du test et pour l’estimation des inverses généralisés. / The present dissertation is devoted to the statistical inference, bootstrap methods and multivariate analysis in the framework of semi-Markov processes. The main applications concern a mechanical problem from fracture mechanics. This work has a two-fold contribution. The first part concerns in general the stochastic modeling of the fatigue crack propagation phenomenon. A stochastic differential equation describes the degradation mechanism and the innate randomness of the phenomenon is handled by a perturbation process. Under the assumption that this process is a jump Markov (or semi-Markov) process, the reliability of the model is studied by means of Markov renewal theory and a new, faster, reliability calculus method is proposed with the respective algorithm. The method and the model for the Markov perturbation process are validated on experimental fatigue data. Next, the strong consistency of the least squares estimates of the model parameters is obtained by assuming that the residuals of the stochastic regression model are martingale differences into which the initial model function is transformed. In the second part of the manuscript, we have tackled the difficult problem of approximating the limiting distribution of certain non-parametric estimators of semi-Markov kernels or some functionals of them via the weighted bootstrap methodology in a general framework. Applications of these results on statistical problems such as the construction of confidence bands, the statistical tests, the computation of the p-value of the test are provided and the estimation of the generalized inverses.

The Bayesian nonparametric inference requires the construction of priors on infinite dimensional spaces such as the space of cumulative distribution functions and the space of cumulative hazard functions. Well-known priors on the space of cumulative distribution functions are the Dirichlet process, the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process and the beta-Stacy process. On the other hand, the beta process is a popular prior on the space of cumulative hazard functions. This thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part, we tackle the problem of sampling from the above mentioned processes. Sampling from these processes plays a crucial role in many applications in Bayesian nonparametric inference. However, having exact samples from these processes is impossible. The existing algorithms are either slow or very complex and may be difficult to apply for many users. We derive new approximation techniques for simulating the above processes. These new approximations provide simple, yet efficient, procedures for simulating these important processes. We compare the efficiency of the new approximations to several other well-known approximations and demonstrate a significant improvement. In the second part, we develop explicit expressions for calculating the Kolmogorov, Levy and Cramer-von Mises distances between the Dirichlet process and its base measure. The derived expressions of each distance are used to select the concentration parameter of a Dirichlet process. We also propose a Bayesain goodness of fit test for simple and composite hypotheses for non-censored and censored observations. Illustrative examples and simulation results are included. Finally, we describe the relationship between the frequentist and Bayesian nonparametric statistics. We show that, when the concentration parameter is large, the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process and its corresponding quantile process share many asymptotic pr operties with the frequentist empirical process and the frequentist quantile process. Some of these properties are the functional central limit theorem, the strong law of large numbers and the Glivenko-Cantelli theorem.

The Bayesian nonparametric inference requires the construction of priors on infinite dimensional spaces such as the space of cumulative distribution functions and the space of cumulative hazard functions. Well-known priors on the space of cumulative distribution functions are the Dirichlet process, the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process and the beta-Stacy process. On the other hand, the beta process is a popular prior on the space of cumulative hazard functions. This thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part, we tackle the problem of sampling from the above mentioned processes. Sampling from these processes plays a crucial role in many applications in Bayesian nonparametric inference. However, having exact samples from these processes is impossible. The existing algorithms are either slow or very complex and may be difficult to apply for many users. We derive new approximation techniques for simulating the above processes. These new approximations provide simple, yet efficient, procedures for simulating these important processes. We compare the efficiency of the new approximations to several other well-known approximations and demonstrate a significant improvement. In the second part, we develop explicit expressions for calculating the Kolmogorov, Levy and Cramer-von Mises distances between the Dirichlet process and its base measure. The derived expressions of each distance are used to select the concentration parameter of a Dirichlet process. We also propose a Bayesain goodness of fit test for simple and composite hypotheses for non-censored and censored observations. Illustrative examples and simulation results are included. Finally, we describe the relationship between the frequentist and Bayesian nonparametric statistics. We show that, when the concentration parameter is large, the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process and its corresponding quantile process share many asymptotic pr operties with the frequentist empirical process and the frequentist quantile process. Some of these properties are the functional central limit theorem, the strong law of large numbers and the Glivenko-Cantelli theorem.

In this thesis, the main objects of study are probability measures on the isomorphism classes of countable, connected rooted graphs. An important class of such measures is formed by unimodular measures, which satisfy a certain equation, sometimes referred to as the intrinsic mass transport principle. The so-called law of a finite graph is an example of a unimodular measure. We say that a measure is sustained by a countable graph if the set of rooted connected components of the graph has full measure. We demonstrate several new results involving sustained unimodular measures, and provide thorough arguments for known ones. In particular, we give a criterion for unimodularity on connected graphs, deduce that connected graphs sustain at most one unimodular measure, and prove that unimodular measures sustained by disconnected graphs are convex combinations. Furthermore, we discuss weak limits of laws of finite graphs, and construct counterexamples to seemingly reasonable conjectures.

The Bayesian nonparametric inference requires the construction of priors on infinite dimensional spaces such as the space of cumulative distribution functions and the space of cumulative hazard functions. Well-known priors on the space of cumulative distribution functions are the Dirichlet process, the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process and the beta-Stacy process. On the other hand, the beta process is a popular prior on the space of cumulative hazard functions. This thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part, we tackle the problem of sampling from the above mentioned processes. Sampling from these processes plays a crucial role in many applications in Bayesian nonparametric inference. However, having exact samples from these processes is impossible. The existing algorithms are either slow or very complex and may be difficult to apply for many users. We derive new approximation techniques for simulating the above processes. These new approximations provide simple, yet efficient, procedures for simulating these important processes. We compare the efficiency of the new approximations to several other well-known approximations and demonstrate a significant improvement. In the second part, we develop explicit expressions for calculating the Kolmogorov, Levy and Cramer-von Mises distances between the Dirichlet process and its base measure. The derived expressions of each distance are used to select the concentration parameter of a Dirichlet process. We also propose a Bayesain goodness of fit test for simple and composite hypotheses for non-censored and censored observations. Illustrative examples and simulation results are included. Finally, we describe the relationship between the frequentist and Bayesian nonparametric statistics. We show that, when the concentration parameter is large, the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process and its corresponding quantile process share many asymptotic pr operties with the frequentist empirical process and the frequentist quantile process. Some of these properties are the functional central limit theorem, the strong law of large numbers and the Glivenko-Cantelli theorem.

In this thesis, the main objects of study are probability measures on the isomorphism classes of countable, connected rooted graphs. An important class of such measures is formed by unimodular measures, which satisfy a certain equation, sometimes referred to as the intrinsic mass transport principle. The so-called law of a finite graph is an example of a unimodular measure. We say that a measure is sustained by a countable graph if the set of rooted connected components of the graph has full measure. We demonstrate several new results involving sustained unimodular measures, and provide thorough arguments for known ones. In particular, we give a criterion for unimodularity on connected graphs, deduce that connected graphs sustain at most one unimodular measure, and prove that unimodular measures sustained by disconnected graphs are convex combinations. Furthermore, we discuss weak limits of laws of finite graphs, and construct counterexamples to seemingly reasonable conjectures.

L'objet de cette thèse est d'étendre le cadre théorique et les méthodes numériques du transport optimal à des objets plus généraux que des mesures de probabilité. En premier lieu, nous définissons des modèles de transport optimal entre mesures positives suivant deux approches, interpolation et couplage de mesures, dont nous montrons l'équivalence. De ces modèles découle une généralisation des métriques de Wasserstein. Dans une seconde partie, nous développons des méthodes numériques pour résoudre les deux formulations et étudions en particulier une nouvelle famille d'algorithmes de "scaling", s'appliquant à une grande variété de problèmes. La troisième partie contient des illustrations ainsi que l'étude théorique et numérique, d'un flot de gradient de type Hele-Shaw dans l'espace des mesures. Pour les mesures à valeurs matricielles, nous proposons aussi un modèle de transport optimal qui permet un bon arbitrage entre fidélité géométrique et efficacité algorithmique. / This thesis generalizes optimal transport beyond the classical "balanced" setting of probability distributions. We define unbalanced optimal transport models between nonnegative measures, based either on the notion of interpolation or the notion of coupling of measures. We show relationships between these approaches. One of the outcomes of this framework is a generalization of the p-Wasserstein metrics. Secondly, we build numerical methods to solve interpolation and coupling-based models. We study, in particular, a new family of scaling algorithms that generalize Sinkhorn's algorithm. The third part deals with applications. It contains a theoretical and numerical study of a Hele-Shaw type gradient flow in the space of nonnegative measures. It also adresses the case of measures taking values in the cone of positive semi-definite matrices, for which we introduce a model that achieves a balance between geometrical accuracy and algorithmic efficiency.

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No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Reinier Díaz Millán - 2015.pdf: 3568052 bytes, checksum: b4c892f77911a368e1b8f629afb5e66e (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / Nesta tese apresentamos v arios algoritmos para resolver os problemas de Desigualdade Variacional e Inclus~ao. Para o problema de desigualdade variacional propomos, no Cap tulo 2 uma generaliza c~ao do algoritmo cl assico extragradiente, utilizando vetores normais n~ao nulos do conjunto vi avel. Em particular, dois algoritmos conceituais s~ao propostos e cada um deles cont^em tr^es variantes diferentes de proje c~ao que est~ao relacionadas com algoritmos extragradientes modi cados. Duas buscas diferentes s~ao propostas, uma sobre a borda do conjunto vi avel e a outra ao longo das dire c~oes vi aveis. Cada algoritmo conceitual tem uma estrat egia diferente de busca e tr^es formas de proje c~ao especiais, gerando tr^es sequ^encias com diferente e interessantes propriedades. E feito a an alise da converg^encia de ambos os algoritmos conceituais, pressupondo a exist^encia de solu c~oes, continuidade do operador e uma condi c~ao mais fraca do que pseudomonotonia. No Cap tulo 4, n os introduzimos um algoritmo direto de divis~ao para o problema variacional em espa cos de Hilbert. J a no Cap tulo 5, propomos um algoritmo de proje c~ao relaxada em Espa cos de Hilbert para a soma de m operadores mon otonos maximais ponto-conjunto, onde o conjunto vi avel do problema de desigualdade variacional e dado por uma fun c~ao n~ao suave e convexa. Neste caso, as proje c~oes ortogonais ao conjunto vi avel s~ao substitu das por proje c~oes em hiperplanos que separam a solu c~ao da itera c~ao atual. Cada itera c~ao do m etodo proposto consiste em proje c~oes simples de tipo subgradientes, que n~ao exige a solu c~ao de subproblemas n~ao triviais, utilizando apenas os operadores individuais, explorando assim a estrutura do problema. Para o problema de Inclus~ao, propomos variantes do m etodo de divis~ao de forward-backward para achar um zero da soma de dois operadores, a qual e a modi ca c~ao cl assica do forwardbackward proposta por Tseng. Um algoritmo conceitual e proposto para melhorar o apresentado por Tseng em alguns pontos. Nossa abordagem cont em, primeramente, uma busca linear tipo Armijo expl cita no esp rito dos m etodos tipo extragradientes para desigualdades variacionais. Durante o processo iterativo, a busca linear realiza apenas um c alculo do operador forward-backward em cada tentativa de achar o tamanho do passo. Isto proporciona uma consider avel vantagem computacional pois o operador forward-backward e computacionalmente caro. A segunda parte do esquema consiste em diferentes tipos de proje c~oes, gerando sequ^encias com caracter sticas diferentes. / In this thesis we present various algorithms to solve the Variational Inequality and Inclusion Problems. For the variational inequality problem we propose, in Chapter 2, a generalization of the classical extragradient algorithm by utilizing non-null normal vectors of the feasible set. In particular, two conceptual algorithms are proposed and each of them has three di erent projection variants which are related to modi ed extragradient algorithms. Two di erent linesearches, one on the boundary of the feasible set and the other one along the feasible direction, are proposed. Each conceptual algorithm has a di erent linesearch strategy and three special projection steps, generating sequences with di erent and interesting features. Convergence analysis of both conceptual algorithms are established, assuming existence of solutions, continuity and a weaker condition than pseudomonotonicity on the operator. In Chapter 4 we introduce a direct splitting method for solving the variational inequality problem for the sum of two maximal monotone operators in Hilbert space. In Chapter 5, for the same problem, a relaxed-projection splitting algorithm in Hilbert spaces for the sum of m nonsmooth maximal monotone operators is proposed, where the feasible set of the variational inequality problem is de ned by a nonlinear and nonsmooth continuous convex function inequality. In this case, the orthogonal projections onto the feasible set are replaced by projections onto separating hyperplanes. Furthermore, each iteration of the proposed method consists of simple subgradient-like steps, which does not demand the solution of a nontrivial subproblem, using only individual operators, which explores the structure of the problem. For the Inclusion Problem, in Chapter 3, we propose variants of forward-backward splitting method for nding a zero of the sum of two operators, which is a modi cation of the classical forward-backward method proposed by Tseng. The conceptual algorithm proposed here improves Tseng's method in many instances. Our approach contains rstly an explicit Armijo-type line search in the spirit of the extragradient-like methods for variational inequalities. During the iterative process, the line search performs only one calculation of the forward-backward operator in each tentative for nding the step size. This achieves a considerable computational saving when the forward-backward operator is computationally expensive. The second part of the scheme consists of special projection steps bringing several variants.