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East African pastoralist societies are characterised by their inherent adaptability to climatic variability, by way of their sophisticated resource management systems and social institutions which provide the knowledge and flexibility needed to respond effectively to risk and uncertainty. However, the impacts of future climate change, in addition to the myriad of social, political, economic and environmental pressures associated with integrating into an increasingly inter-connected globalised system, may be unprecedented in their scope and range, and are likely to undermine their ability to pursue successful livelihoods while putting at risk the things they value. Responses to these challenges need to be based on an accurate and evidence-based understanding of the complexity and synergistic nature of multiple stressors, in order to avoid narrow quick-fix solutions which may undermine resilience and human security in the longer term. This social science research has used a multi-methods approach to fulfil the following objectives: identify the range of stressors impacting livelihoods and wellbeing within the study areas; investigate the multi-directional associations between climate variability and conflict; and evaluate the influence of development interventions on the characteristics of social resilience. Fieldwork was undertaken in collaboration with two non-governmental organisations, with data derived from ethnographic observations and shadowing, participatory rural appraisal, focus group discussions, semi-structured interviews and household livelihood surveys. Results find that communities within the study areas are faced with multiple and interacting pressures on their lives and livelihoods, and that while climate change impacts are likely to compound vulnerability and undermine human security, they cannot be isolated from the broader context, or from local priorities and lived realities. Violent conflict is identified as being more closely associated with periods of abundant rainfall than those of scarcity or resource competition, with climate-related hazards such as drought being more likely to result in reconciliation and cooperation. Conflict is driven primarily by the broader political economy within the region, along with land boundary disputes and the ethnically-based nature of governance and resource allocation. Pastoralist systems are found to inherently contain many of the characteristics of socio-ecological resilience, with development interventions having the potential to build on these strengths in order to simultaneously promote adaptive capacity and build peace. However, the narrow focus on specific risks by organisations within the study areas, without a broader integration of responses to multiple stressors, may lead to path dependency and maladaptation, and could act to undermine resilience in the longer term. This thesis contributes qualitative empirical evidence to the climate security debate, and demonstrates that peace and cooperation are more likely outcomes than violence in pastoralist regions during periods of climate-related stress. It also provides an analysis of the extent to which development interventions inherently support or constrain adaptive capacity and social resilience to climate change, conflict, and other livelihood pressures.

More than 95% of fuel used for personal transportation is petroleum-based (Environment and Development Division (EDD), 2005). The peak and decline of world oil production is producing price and uncertainty pressures that may cause significant travel behaviour change in the future. Current travel behaviour has developed during conditions of low cost fuel and government investment in private vehicle mobility. Current urban forms and land use have also been developed during a period of growth in vehicle travel demand. Research that explores the long term (permanent oil supply reduction period) implications of reduced fuel demand on private travel behaviour is needed. Local and national government investments in transport infrastructure and urban development will be used and require maintenance for decades. Research is needed to assess long-term mode choice and car travel demand as a function of urban form and demographic indicators. This type of travel behaviour adaptive potential should be relevant to transport planning decision making. Literature review shows that there are a few available long-term planning methods, models, or tools in transportation engineering for future oil depletion. Transportation engineers need information of how current travel demand patterns may change over the lifetime of infrastructure investments in response to oil supply depletion. Behaviour change data for long term future situations would be difficult to obtain using traditional survey methods because most people have never experienced oil depletion situations. This research proposes that immersing people into the situation of oil depletion through sharp price rise would be necessary to generate relevant behaviour change decisions. The thesis is that the long term behaviour change can be assessed by characterising current adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is defined in this thesis as the travel demand pattern with maximum fuel reduction without reducing participation in activities. The reasons why people might change travel demand to reduce fuel use is not part of the definition. This research also proposed that an immersive sim game environment could be used to prompt behaviour change decisions relating to fuel price shocks. Research into sim game surveys and travel behaviour surveys was used to inform the design of a Transport Adaptive Capacity Assessment (TACA) Sim survey tool. The TACA Sim survey was designed to assess capacity to adapt travel behaviour to reduce fuel use, and to characterise the potential for mode change. Participants experience the TACA Sim survey as a self assessment or transport energy audit. The survey provides a personal feel, focuses on the usual weekly activities, and provides feedback to participants about their fuel use and car dependence. Participants supply their normal travel activities over a week, and three weeks of sim play includes a steep fuel price rise while people are allowed to change their travel behaviour in response. The TACA Sim survey was evaluated through a case study of surveys of staff and students at the University of Canterbury. A second version of the TACA survey was developed that surveyed the one week of normal travel, but then probed adaptive capacity by asking a simple question after each travel activity was entered “Could you get to the activity another way?” The sim game travel adaptive capacity is compared with the available alternative adaptive behaviour for participants in a case study at the University of Canterbury. The results of the case study show that the participants responded well with the simulated situation. This reflects that the TACA Sim is successful in helping participants to perceive the situation of fuel price rise and think about their alternatives to car travel. Asking people “Could you get to the activity another way?” was found to effectively probe their adaptive capacity which agreed well with the virtual reality survey. The virtual reality survey yields more details of what people can do such as moving house, chaining trips, combining trips and buying a more efficient vehicle. The web-based TACA survey has been developed and deployed in two further research projects.

Against a background of ongoing and predicted climatic and environmental change facing humans on a global level, this thesis combines historical perspectives with theories of social resilience in a study of reindeer husbandry in Swedish Sápmi, from the late 18th century to the early 20th century. The thesis includes four individual studies that examine the topic from different angles, connected together by reoccurring elements of social resilience. The first paper analyses the adaptive capacity of reindeer husbandry communities in the northernmost part of Swedish Sápmi during the 19th to early 20th century, using materials from the Sami bailiffs’ archives, governors’ reports and documentation from official committees. The second paper is based on similar materials and explores livelihood diversity of reindeer husbandry in southern and northern regions of Swedish Sápmi from 1860 to 1920. The third paper examines the social networks of reindeer husbandry and includes an analysis on how these are represented in demographic sources at the turn of the 20th century. The fourth and final paper examines taxation lands as objects of place-attachment in a south Sami reindeer husbandry context from 1740 to 1870. The thesis demonstrates that communities and families practiced highly flexible herding in terms of what pasture area they used, when and how they used it and with whom. In order to maintain this flexibility, communities needed authority to manage their own livelihoods and a diverse and interconnected landscape. The results further show that reindeer husbandry was a dynamic and diverse livelihood, well into the 20th century. Fishing, hunting, trapping or farming was part of many reindeer herding families’ livelihoods. By tethering aspects of diversity to norms and ideals within the communities included in the study, I argue that farming can be understood as both an enforced adaptation and as an adaptive capacity depending on the ideals within the community in question. The thesis supports the notions that reindeer husbandry since long has faced many challenges, including: border closings; competing land uses; disturbance from settlers; enforced regulations and laws concerning reindeer husbandry; and restrictions of livelihood diversity. Furthermore, these challenges were not only sources of disturbances in their own right, but they also restricted the adaptive capacity of reindeer herding communities.

Le changement climatique menacera probablement la durabilité de la plupart des systèmes agricoles en région méditerranéenne et notamment au sud de la méditerranée. Le comportement des systèmes agricoles sera différent selon les régions sur la base de contextes biophysique, socio-économique, institutionnel et politique. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'analyser la résilience et la capacité d'adaptation au changement climatique des exploitations agricoles en prenant comme référence celles de la Basse Vallée de Medjerda (Nord de la Tunisie). Pour répondre à cet objectif, trois questions principales sont successivement abordées. Le premier chapitre décrit, en se basant sur une large revue de littérature, les effets agri environnementaux du changement climatique en région méditerranéenne et particulièrement en Tunisie. Le deuxième chapitre analyse les effets potentiels du changement climatique sur la résilience des exploitations agricoles de la Basse Vallée de Medjerda (BVM). Pour faire bref, la résilience d'une exploitation est sa capacité à assurer par elle-même sa viabilité économique et par conséquent sa pérennité. Pour ce faire, un cadre conceptuel a été construit. Ce cadre est basé sur trois étapes impliquant la définition de l'échelle spatiale, les forces exogènes, les indicateurs et les seuils de persistance. A cet effet, une chaîne de modèles biophysique-socioéconomique au niveau régional a été utilisée pour simuler l'effet du changement climatique d'une part sur les rendements des cultures et sur la salinité du sol à l'échelle de la parcelle, et d'autre part sur la résilience et la capacité d'adaptation des exploitations agricoles. Cette approche quantitative permet la simulation de stratégie d'adaptation agricole système en calculant trois indicateurs : le stock de terres, le stock de main-d'œuvre et le flux des revenus, en réponse au changement climatique. Le troisième chapitre évalue les stratégies d'adaptation possibles permettant de faire face aux effets du changement climatique. Ces stratégies ont été identifiées dans le cadre d'une approche participative, en concertation avec les agriculteurs et les experts locaux au niveau de la BVM et simulées en utilisant la chaîne de modèles. Les résultats de cette étude montrent une hétérogénéité des comportements des exploitations agricoles en fonction de la diversité et du degré d‘intensification des activités de production agricoles (végétale et animale). Les exploitations agricoles les plus diversifiées et les moins intensifiées avec une activité animale importante semblent être plus résilientes au changement climatique que les exploitations spécialisées ayant un système de production intensif. Nous constatons que les stratégies d'adaptation basées sur l'augmentation des doses d'irrigation pour satisfaire les besoins croissants en eau des cultures, l'irrigation de complément des céréales, et l'amélioration de l'efficience des systèmes d'irrigation améliorent la résilience des exploitations agricoles de la Basse Vallée de Medjerda. Ces stratégies ont un effet plus important sur la profitabilité des exploitations agricoles si elles sont accompagnées par une tarification d'eau binôme. Les résultats de cette étude montrent que les systèmes agricoles peuvent s'adapter au changement climatique de différentes façons. La méthodologie utilisée peut être adaptée à d'autres régions de la Méditerranée et permettra d'aider les experts et les décideurs politiques à proposer et tester des stratégies d'adaptation au changement climatique dans ces régions. / Climate change would impact sustainability of most agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region and particularly in the south of the Mediterranean. It is expected that agricultural systems react differently depending on biophysical, socioeconomic and political contexts of each agriculture. The objective of this thesis is to analyze the resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change of the farming systems of the Low Valley of Medjerda (Northern Tunisia). To meet this objective, three main steps are developed. The first chapter describes, based on a literature review, the agri-environmental effects of climate change in the Mediterranean region and particularly in Tunisia. The second chapter analyzes the potential impact of climate change on the resilience of the farming systems in the Low Valley of Medjerda (LVM). To do this, an operational Framework was built. The third chapter assesses the possible adaptive strategies to cope with the effects of climate change. These strategies have been identified through a participatory approach, in consultation with farmers and local experts in the LVM watershed. For this purpose, a chain of regional biophysical-socio-economic models was used to simulate the effect of climate change, on crop yields and soil salinity at field scale, and on the resilience and adaptability of farming systems. The results of this study show heterogeneous behaviors of farming systems depending on the diversity and the degree of intensification of agricultural production (crop and livestock). More diversified and less intensified farming systems with a large animal activity seem to be more resilient than specialized farms with intensive production system. In addition, as expected, we find that adaptation strategies based on the increasing of irrigation doses to meet the increased crop water requirements (SIrr.am), supplemental irrigation of cereal (SIrr.c) and the improvement of the efficiency of irrigation systems (SIrr.sys)improve the resilience of farming systems in the LVM watershed. These strategies have a greater effect on the profitability of farming systems if they are accompanied by a binominal water tariff. The methodology used in this research can be adapted for other Mediterranean regions and assist experts and policy makers to propose and test strategies for adapting to climate change in these regions.

O bioma Mata Atlântica é o complexo ambiental brasileiro mais populoso e encontra-se em acelerado crescimento urbano, seguindo a tendência global de degradação das florestas tropicais úmidas e configurando metrópoles com destaque mundial como São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro. O fato urbano nesse bioma, tecido a partir de tensões sociais de desigualdades de acesso ao espaço, expande-se para encostas e áreas de inundação, em um contexto desprovido de infraestrutura adequada. Eventos de chuva têm consequências desastrosas e configuram um problema de saúde ambiental. A redução de riscos e recuperação da saúde urbana está em pauta mundialmente por meio do conceito de adaptação. Entretanto, o aumento da capacidade adaptativa demanda uma estratégia de governança visando à integração de políticas públicas existentes e aprofundamento da democracia nos processos de planejamento e gestão, principalmente na esfera municipal. A aprovação das Politicas Nacionais de Mudança do Clima (2009) e de Proteção e Defesa Civil (2012) exigem estes avanços para sua efetividade. Essa dissertação propõe-se a caracterizar o panorama de vulnerabilidades em saúde ambiental frente a perigos induzidos por eventos de chuva em municípios do bioma Mata Atlântica e, então, apontar as barreiras e potencialidades ao aumento da capacidade adaptativa, em termos de política, planejamento e gestão. A metodologia, fundamentada na interdisciplinaridade é composta por revisão bibliográfica e um estudo de caso representativo e quali-quantitativo, envolvendo uso de indicadores, entrevistas com gestores públicos e observação participante em áreas de risco no município de São Sebastião, litoral Norte de São Paulo. Os principais resultados indicam que as vulnerabilidades aos desastres são desigualmente distribuídas no tecido intraurbano, sendo mais grave nas áreas em que há sobreposições das piores condições sociais, econômicas, ambientais e infraestruturais. Além disso, também é desigual a capacidade adaptativa dos setores diretamente responsáveis pela gestão pública das vulnerabilidades analisadas, sendo o setor de saúde o mais avançado e setor de saneamento o mais deficiente. Por fim, conclui-se que a adaptação no bioma Mata Atlântica não poderá ter sucesso por meio de políticas isoladas e que a governança, incluindo parceiras intersetoriais e interinstitucionais, bem como participação social qualificada, pode ser uma oportunidade para a redução de riscos e vulnerabilidades. / The Atlantic Forest biome is the most populous Brazilian environmental complex in rapid urban growth, following the global trend of degradation of the rainforests and setting prominent cities in the world such as Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The urban fact in this biome holds social tensions of inequalities in access to space and expands to the slopes and floodplains, in an inadequate infrastructure context. Rain events have disastrous consequences and sets up a matter of environmental health. The risk reduction and recovery in urban health is at global stake through the concept of \'adaptation\'. However, increasing the adaptive capacity requires governance strategies to integrate public policy and deepening democracy in the planning and management, especially at local level. Recent approval of Brazilian Policies on Climate Change (2009) and Civil Protection and Defense (2012) require such advances for their effectiveness. This master thesis proposes to characterize environmental health vulnerabilities panorama facing rainfall induced hazards in cities of the Atlantic Forest biome, and then points barriers and potentials to adaptive capacity increase, in terms of policy, planning and management. The methodology, based on interdisciplinarity, consists of literature review and representative case study, involving use of indicators, interviews with public managers and participant observation in risk areas in the city of São Sebastião, northern coast of São Paulo. The main results indicate that vulnerability to disasters are unequally distributed the intraurban space which is more severe in areas facing risk factors overlapping, in worst social, economic, environmental and infrastructural conditions. Furthermore, adaptive capacity of the sectors directly responsible for the public management of the analyzed vulnerabilities is also unequal, being, health sector the most advanced and sanitation sector the most deficient. Finally, we conclude that adaptation in the Atlantic Forest biome could not succeed through individual policies at national level. Local governance, including intersectoral and interinstitutional partnerships as well as qualified social participation, may be an opportunity to risks and vulnerabilities reduction.

O bioma Mata Atlântica é o complexo ambiental brasileiro mais populoso e encontra-se em acelerado crescimento urbano, seguindo a tendência global de degradação das florestas tropicais úmidas e configurando metrópoles com destaque mundial como São Paulo e Rio de Janeiro. O fato urbano nesse bioma, tecido a partir de tensões sociais de desigualdades de acesso ao espaço, expande-se para encostas e áreas de inundação, em um contexto desprovido de infraestrutura adequada. Eventos de chuva têm consequências desastrosas e configuram um problema de saúde ambiental. A redução de riscos e recuperação da saúde urbana está em pauta mundialmente por meio do conceito de adaptação. Entretanto, o aumento da capacidade adaptativa demanda uma estratégia de governança visando à integração de políticas públicas existentes e aprofundamento da democracia nos processos de planejamento e gestão, principalmente na esfera municipal. A aprovação das Politicas Nacionais de Mudança do Clima (2009) e de Proteção e Defesa Civil (2012) exigem estes avanços para sua efetividade. Essa dissertação propõe-se a caracterizar o panorama de vulnerabilidades em saúde ambiental frente a perigos induzidos por eventos de chuva em municípios do bioma Mata Atlântica e, então, apontar as barreiras e potencialidades ao aumento da capacidade adaptativa, em termos de política, planejamento e gestão. A metodologia, fundamentada na interdisciplinaridade é composta por revisão bibliográfica e um estudo de caso representativo e quali-quantitativo, envolvendo uso de indicadores, entrevistas com gestores públicos e observação participante em áreas de risco no município de São Sebastião, litoral Norte de São Paulo. Os principais resultados indicam que as vulnerabilidades aos desastres são desigualmente distribuídas no tecido intraurbano, sendo mais grave nas áreas em que há sobreposições das piores condições sociais, econômicas, ambientais e infraestruturais. Além disso, também é desigual a capacidade adaptativa dos setores diretamente responsáveis pela gestão pública das vulnerabilidades analisadas, sendo o setor de saúde o mais avançado e setor de saneamento o mais deficiente. Por fim, conclui-se que a adaptação no bioma Mata Atlântica não poderá ter sucesso por meio de políticas isoladas e que a governança, incluindo parceiras intersetoriais e interinstitucionais, bem como participação social qualificada, pode ser uma oportunidade para a redução de riscos e vulnerabilidades. / The Atlantic Forest biome is the most populous Brazilian environmental complex in rapid urban growth, following the global trend of degradation of the rainforests and setting prominent cities in the world such as Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The urban fact in this biome holds social tensions of inequalities in access to space and expands to the slopes and floodplains, in an inadequate infrastructure context. Rain events have disastrous consequences and sets up a matter of environmental health. The risk reduction and recovery in urban health is at global stake through the concept of \'adaptation\'. However, increasing the adaptive capacity requires governance strategies to integrate public policy and deepening democracy in the planning and management, especially at local level. Recent approval of Brazilian Policies on Climate Change (2009) and Civil Protection and Defense (2012) require such advances for their effectiveness. This master thesis proposes to characterize environmental health vulnerabilities panorama facing rainfall induced hazards in cities of the Atlantic Forest biome, and then points barriers and potentials to adaptive capacity increase, in terms of policy, planning and management. The methodology, based on interdisciplinarity, consists of literature review and representative case study, involving use of indicators, interviews with public managers and participant observation in risk areas in the city of São Sebastião, northern coast of São Paulo. The main results indicate that vulnerability to disasters are unequally distributed the intraurban space which is more severe in areas facing risk factors overlapping, in worst social, economic, environmental and infrastructural conditions. Furthermore, adaptive capacity of the sectors directly responsible for the public management of the analyzed vulnerabilities is also unequal, being, health sector the most advanced and sanitation sector the most deficient. Finally, we conclude that adaptation in the Atlantic Forest biome could not succeed through individual policies at national level. Local governance, including intersectoral and interinstitutional partnerships as well as qualified social participation, may be an opportunity to risks and vulnerabilities reduction.

A capacidade adaptativa às enchentes diz respeito à capacidade inerente de indivíduos ou de um sistema de se ajustar aos efeitos desse evento e lidar com ele, de modo a moderar seus danos potenciais. A cidade de São Paulo é particularmente vulnerável às enchentes devido ao seu histórico de uso e ocupação do solo. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a capacidade adaptativa a partir da realidade local de moradores do Jardim Pantanal, localizado na zona leste do município de São Paulo às várzeas do rio Tietê, a fim de propor ações que possam contribuir na construção dessa capacidade. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida por meio de levantamento documental e bibliográfico, entrevistas semiestruturadas, análise das transcrições, codificação, e categorização dos dados. As capacidades adaptativas genérica e específica nos níveis organizacionais individual e de sistema são baixas, e entre os determinantes da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes os recursos financeiros, a vulnerabilidade urbana e as estratégias de enfrentamento foram considerados os mais importantes, em nível individual. A falta de recursos, a irregularidade de rendimentos e a ausência de diversificação na fonte de renda limitam as opções disponíveis de moradia em áreas regulares e dificultam a mobilização de recursos para a adoção de medidas preventivas e de recuperação pós-evento. A vulnerabilidade urbana expressa-se pela ocupação em área irregular, onde não são realizados investimentos em medidas de infraestrutura por parte dos moradores, que poderiam reduzir a exposição aos impactos das enchentes, pois não se sabe até quando poderão permanecer na área. As estratégias de enfrentamento demonstram ter caráter apenas reativo sem qualquer planejamento, sendo decididas e tomadas reativamente quando a água sobe. Tendo em vista os aspectos observados, a construção da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes no Jardim Pantanal requer: a) entrosamento entre as medidas de adaptação autônomas (do indivíduo) e as planejadas (do sistema); b) ações de adaptação antecipatórias, mais do que responsivas; e c) medidas de adaptação de curto e longo prazos que considerem as vulnerabilidades que surgiram durante o período de adaptação. / Adaptive capacity to floods means the inherent capacity of individuals or systems to adjust and cope with its effects, in order to moderate potential damages. The city of São Paulo is particularly vulnerable to floods due to its history of occupation and land use. The goal of this research was to analyze the adaptive capacity in the local reality of the Jardim Pantanal residents, located in the east zone of the municipality of São Paulo, at the bed of Tietê River, in order to propose actions that can contribute in building this capacity. The research was developed through bibliographical and documental research, semi-structured interviews, transcript analysis, coding and categorization of data. Generic and specific adaptative capacities in the individual and system organizational levels are low, and among the determinants of adaptive capacity to floods, financial resources, urban vulnerability and coping strategies are considered the most important at the individual level. The lack of resources and the instability and lack of diversification of income sources limit the options available in regular housing areas and make it difficult to mobilize resources for the adoption of preventive and post-event recovery measures. Urban vulnerability is due to illegal land occupation, where investments in infrastructure, which could reduce the exposure to the impacts of floods, are not made by residents, because they dont know for how long they will be able to stay in the area. Coping strategies were found to have only a reactive character, without any planning, being decided and taken reactively when the water rises. Given the observed aspects, building adaptive capacity to floods in Jardim Pantanal requires a) understanding between autonomous (individual) and planned (system) adaptation measures; b) anticipatory rather than responsive adaptation actions; and c) short and long-term adaptation measures to consider the vulnerabilities arising during the adaptation period.

A capacidade adaptativa às enchentes diz respeito à capacidade inerente de indivíduos ou de um sistema de se ajustar aos efeitos desse evento e lidar com ele, de modo a moderar seus danos potenciais. A cidade de São Paulo é particularmente vulnerável às enchentes devido ao seu histórico de uso e ocupação do solo. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a capacidade adaptativa a partir da realidade local de moradores do Jardim Pantanal, localizado na zona leste do município de São Paulo às várzeas do rio Tietê, a fim de propor ações que possam contribuir na construção dessa capacidade. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida por meio de levantamento documental e bibliográfico, entrevistas semiestruturadas, análise das transcrições, codificação, e categorização dos dados. As capacidades adaptativas genérica e específica nos níveis organizacionais individual e de sistema são baixas, e entre os determinantes da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes os recursos financeiros, a vulnerabilidade urbana e as estratégias de enfrentamento foram considerados os mais importantes, em nível individual. A falta de recursos, a irregularidade de rendimentos e a ausência de diversificação na fonte de renda limitam as opções disponíveis de moradia em áreas regulares e dificultam a mobilização de recursos para a adoção de medidas preventivas e de recuperação pós-evento. A vulnerabilidade urbana expressa-se pela ocupação em área irregular, onde não são realizados investimentos em medidas de infraestrutura por parte dos moradores, que poderiam reduzir a exposição aos impactos das enchentes, pois não se sabe até quando poderão permanecer na área. As estratégias de enfrentamento demonstram ter caráter apenas reativo sem qualquer planejamento, sendo decididas e tomadas reativamente quando a água sobe. Tendo em vista os aspectos observados, a construção da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes no Jardim Pantanal requer: a) entrosamento entre as medidas de adaptação autônomas (do indivíduo) e as planejadas (do sistema); b) ações de adaptação antecipatórias, mais do que responsivas; e c) medidas de adaptação de curto e longo prazos que considerem as vulnerabilidades que surgiram durante o período de adaptação. / Adaptive capacity to floods means the inherent capacity of individuals or systems to adjust and cope with its effects, in order to moderate potential damages. The city of São Paulo is particularly vulnerable to floods due to its history of occupation and land use. The goal of this research was to analyze the adaptive capacity in the local reality of the Jardim Pantanal residents, located in the east zone of the municipality of São Paulo, at the bed of Tietê River, in order to propose actions that can contribute in building this capacity. The research was developed through bibliographical and documental research, semi-structured interviews, transcript analysis, coding and categorization of data. Generic and specific adaptative capacities in the individual and system organizational levels are low, and among the determinants of adaptive capacity to floods, financial resources, urban vulnerability and coping strategies are considered the most important at the individual level. The lack of resources and the instability and lack of diversification of income sources limit the options available in regular housing areas and make it difficult to mobilize resources for the adoption of preventive and post-event recovery measures. Urban vulnerability is due to illegal land occupation, where investments in infrastructure, which could reduce the exposure to the impacts of floods, are not made by residents, because they dont know for how long they will be able to stay in the area. Coping strategies were found to have only a reactive character, without any planning, being decided and taken reactively when the water rises. Given the observed aspects, building adaptive capacity to floods in Jardim Pantanal requires a) understanding between autonomous (individual) and planned (system) adaptation measures; b) anticipatory rather than responsive adaptation actions; and c) short and long-term adaptation measures to consider the vulnerabilities arising during the adaptation period.