The Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation, the International Federation of Air Traffic Control Associations, the International Air Transport Association and the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation agree that professionals in the Air Navigation Services Provider Sector require successful organisational leadership to facilitate and manage transformation within the highly regulated Air Navigation Services Provider Sector. Detailed organisational leadership requirements and associated leadership training and development needs are, however, not specified by the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation. An opportunity therefore existed to investigate leadership traits and behaviours within a specific context. This research project is contextualised within a safety-conscious, highly regulated and technology-driven industry (the South African Aviation Industry), a safety-critical sector (Air Navigation Services) and specifically the Air Traffic and Navigation Services Company. It was found that little academic research has been done to address the role of followers in the leadership process and to determine what followers expect and require from their leaders. The research problem statement, in response to this research necessity, is: “How can follower experiences and expectations of leadership behaviours in a safety-critical commercial environment be collected, analysed, understood, structured and utilised to aid leadership development?” An ethnographic research case study approach allowed the researcher to investigate the multifarious phenomena that constitute the current views (experiences and expectations) held by followers with regard to leadership behaviour qualities. A mixed methods approach was followed. Data collection was facilitated by means of individual interviews, focus group interviews, field notes and a structured questionnaire. Qualitative data were inductively analysed to identify the recurring patterns and common themes and quantitative data were deductively analysed to assess the nature of existing conditions and relevance. Data and method triangulation was implemented to determine whether multiple sources of data agreed, and to obtain better, cross-checked insights. Findings from this research study provided academic, industry, process and methodology insights into views held by followers regarding leadership and followership constructs. Definitions and perspectives held and reported by followers regarding leaders and leadership, characteristics of preferred and undesired leadership styles, relational and emotional bonds between followers and their leaders acknowledged the presence, value and influence of follower mental models. In this case followers contextualised leadership roles and responsibilities and suggested a transformational leadership style as a desired state. Findings also emphasised a need to appreciate the importance of the social exchange and social contingency theories of leadership in order to create a better understanding of leadership by emphasising the importance of context when studying leaders and leadership from a follower perspective. Obtained follower insights resulted in a structured leadership training and development needs analysis process framed within the specific context. Future research efforts in this regard may be aimed at determining the necessity to educate followers to critically appreciate and evaluate leadership performance and creating a better understanding of how followers’ mental models internally represent complex, dynamic systems and how these representations change over time. / Business Management / DBL

This program of research was aimed at investigating a novel application of computer aided text analysis (CATA). To date, CATA has been used in a wide variety of disciplines, including Psychology, but never in the area of personnel selection. Traditional personnel selection techniques have met with limited success in the prediction of costly training failures for some occupational groups such as pilot and air traffic controller. Accordingly, the overall purpose of this thesis was to assess the validity of linguistic style to select personnel. Several studies were used to examine the structure of language in a personnel selection setting; the relationship between linguistic style and the individual differences dimensions of ability, personality and vocational interests; the validity of linguistic style as a personnel selection tool and the differences in linguistic style across occupational groups. The participants for the studies contained in this thesis consisted of a group of 810 Royal Australian Air Force Pilot, Air Traffic Control and Air Defence Officer trainees. The results partially supported two of the eight hypotheses; the other six hypotheses were supported. The structure of the linguistic style measure was found to be different in this study compared with the structure found in previous research. Linguistic style was found to be unrelated to ability or vocational interests, although some overlap was found between linguistic style and the measure of personality. In terms of personnel selection validity, linguistic style was found to relate to the outcome of training for the occupations of Pilot, Air Traffic Control and Air Defence Officer. Linguistic style also demonstrated incremental validity beyond traditional ability and selection interview measures. The findings are discussed in light of the Five Factor Theory of Personality, and motivational theory and a modified spreading activation network model of semantic memory and knowledge. A general conclusion is drawn that the analysis of linguistic style is a promising new tool in the area of personnel selection.

Introduktion: Buller definieras som oönskat ljud. Uppfattningen av ett oönskat ljud är mycket individuellt. Det som anses vara oljud för en person, kan upplevas som icke-oljud för en annan person. Buller anses dock generellt som störande ljud och är vanligtvis något som varje individ stöter på under sin vardag som exempelvis på arbetsplatsen, skolan, eller i hemmet. Buller anses vara den miljöstörning som berör flest människor i Sverige. Det är ett växande problem och flygtrafik anses vara en av de mest genomgripande utomhusljudkällorna. Bullerproblem som är förknippade med flygtrafik är koncentrerade i områden nära flygplatser, vilket kan påverka flera tusentals boendes hälsa. Flygtrafikbuller har länge varit ett folkhälsoproblem och många människor som är bosatta i närheten av en flygplats har utvecklat ett antal negativa hälsoeffekter av flygtrafikbuller Syfte: Att undersöka hur boende som är bosatta nära flygplatsen Linköping City Airport upplever och påverkas av flygtrafikbuller.  Metod: Studien har utförts som en enkätundersökning med en kvantitativ tvärsnittsdesign. Webbenkäten som har använts som mätinstrument har konstruerats för att besvara syftet. 292 vuxna individer (>18år), varav 158 män och 133 kvinnor, deltog i studien. Insamlad statistiska data har bearbetats och analyserats i SPSS. För att kunna besvara syftet har följande statistiska tester använts: chi2-test, spearmans-korrelationsanalys och logistisk regressionsanalys.   Resultat och konklusion: Boende som är bosatta i Tannefors visade överlag positiva upplevelser till flygtrafiken och var positivt inställda till flygplatsen. De boende som upplevde störningar minst varje vecka vissa delar av året upplevde att flygtrafikbuller medför svårigheter att utföra olika aktiviteter. Kvinnor i den yngsta åldersgruppen upplevde flygtrafikbuller som mer störande jämfört med män. Män hade en mer negativ inställning till flygplatsen jämfört med kvinnor. Boende som rapporterade sämre hälsotillstånd, sömnproblem och användande av öronproppar eller något annat hörselskydd för att kunna sova bättre, sämre sömnkvalitet, trötthet, obehagskänslor, ledsenhet och nedstämdhet, osällskaplighet och att man föredrar att vara ifred, irritation och vresighet, stress, lock eller tinnitus i öronen meddelade också ett större besvär för flygtrafikbuller. / Introduction: Aircraft noise is an example of unwanted sound. The perception of unwanted sound is very individual. What is considered noise by one person may be perceived as non-noise by someone else. However, noise is generally regarded as disturbing noise and is usually something that each individual encounters in their daily life, such as in the workplace, at school, or at home. Noise is considered to be the form of environmental disruption that affects the most people in Sweden. It is a growing problem, and air traffic is considered to be one of the most pervasive outdoor sound sources. Noise problems associated with air traffic are concentrated in areas close to airports, which can affect the health of thousands of residents. Air traffic noise has long been a public health problem, and many people living near an airport have developed a number of negative health effects due to air traffic noise. Purpose: To study how residents living near Linköping City Airport experience and are affected by air traffic noise.   Method: The study has been conducted as a questionnaire survey with a quantitative crosssectional design. The online survey that has been used as a measuring instrument has been designed to answer the purpose. 292 adult subjects (> 18 years), including 158 men and 133 women, participated in the study. Collected statistical data has been processed and analysed in SPSS. In order to answer the purpose, the following statistical tests have been used: chi2 test, Spearman’s correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis. Results and conclusion: Residents living in Tannefors generally had positive experiences from air traffic and were positive towards the airport. The residents who experienced disturbances at least every week during certain parts of the year felt that air traffic noise caused difficulties performing various activities. Women in the youngest age group experienced air traffic noise as more disturbing compared to men. Men had fewer negative attitudes towards the airport compared to women. Residents who reported poorer health conditions, sleep problems and the use of earplugs or other hearing protectors to be able to sleep better, poorer sleep quality, fatigue, discomfort, sadness and depressed mood, low morale, a desire to be left alone, irritation and grief, stress, clogged ear or tinnitus also started that air traffic noise was a major inconvenience.

This diploma thesis is dedicated to the European Commission's project known under the name Single European Sky which pursues an objective to reorganize the current European airspace structure for the more efficient provision of air navigation services purposes. As an introduction, the author sets himself the goal to acquaint the reader with relevant international organizations in the field of civil aviation, introduce him in a general way into the provision of air navigation services' issues, including the situations when these services are being provided across the national boundaries. Following this general reading, the thesis fluently moves on to its main subject matter which is the Single European Sky initiative. An attention is focused on the state of European airspace before the initiative has been launched as well as the preparatory works which resulted in the adoption of the first SES legislative package. The following chapter presents the basic legal framework regulating the Single European Sky as amended by the adoption of the second legislative package. Principal part of the thesis is comprised in the next chapter dealing with the process of project's implementation. Within its framework, the reader's attention is turned, inter alia, to such crucial issues as the national supervisory...

Dans cette thèse, nous proposons des modèles probabilistes et statistiques d’analyse de données multidimensionnelles pour la prévision de l’incertitude sur les trajectoires d’aéronefs. En supposant que pendant le vol, chaque aéronef suit sa trajectoire 3D contenue dans son plan de vol déposé, nous avons utilisé l’ensemble des caractéristiques de l’environnement des vols comme variables indépendantes pour expliquer l’heure de passage des aéronefs sur les points de leur trajectoire de vol prévue. Ces caractéristiques sont : les conditions météorologiques et atmosphériques, les paramètres courants des vols, les informations contenues dans les plans de vol déposés et la complexité de trafic. Typiquement, la variable dépendante dans cette étude est la différence entre les instants observés pendant le vol et les instants prévus dans les plans de vol pour le passage des aéronefs sur les points de leur trajectoire prévue : c’est la variable écart temporel. En utilisant une technique basée sur le partitionnement récursif d’un échantillon des données, nous avons construit quatre modèles. Le premier modèle que nous avons appelé CART classique est basé sur le principe de la méthode CART de Breiman. Ici, nous utilisons un arbre de régression pour construire une typologie des points des trajectoires des vols en fonction des caractéristiques précédentes et de prévoir les instants de passage des aéronefs sur ces points. Le second modèle appelé CART modifié est une version améliorée du modèle précédent. Ce dernier est construit en remplaçant les prévisions calculées par l’estimation de la moyenne de la variable dépendante dans les nœuds terminaux du modèle CART classique par des nouvelles prévisions données par des régressions multiples à l’intérieur de ces nœuds. Ce nouveau modèle développé en utilisant l’algorithme de sélection et d’élimination des variables explicatives (Stepwise) est parcimonieux. En effet, pour chaque nœud terminal, il permet d’expliquer le temps de vol par des variables indépendantes les plus pertinentes pour ce nœud. Le troisième modèle est fondé sur la méthode MARS, modèle de régression multiple par les splines adaptatives. Outre la continuité de l’estimateur de la variable dépendante, ce modèle permet d’évaluer les effets directs des prédicteurs et de ceux de leurs interactions sur le temps de passage des aéronefs sur les points de leur trajectoire de vol prévue. Le quatrième modèle utilise la méthode d’échantillonnage bootstrap. Il s’agit notamment des forêts aléatoires où pour chaque échantillon bootstrap de l’échantillon de données initial, un modèle d’arbre de régression est construit, et la prévision du modèle général est obtenue par une agrégation des prévisions sur l’ensemble de ces arbres. Malgré le surapprentissage observé sur ce modèle, il est robuste et constitue une solution au problème d’instabilité des arbres de régression propre à la méthode CART. Les modèles ainsi construits ont été évalués et validés en utilisant les données test. Leur application au calcul des prévisions de la charge secteur en nombre d’avions entrants a montré qu’un horizon de prévision d’environ 20 minutes pour une fenêtre de temps supérieure à 20 minutes permettait d’obtenir les prévisions avec des erreurs relatives inférieures à 10%. Parmi ces modèles, CART classique et les forêts aléatoires présentaient de meilleures performances. Ainsi, pour l’autorité régulatrice des courants de trafic aérien, ces modèles constituent un outil d’aide pour la régulation et la planification de la charge des secteurs de l’espace aérien contrôlé. / In this thesis we propose probabilistic and statistic models based on multidimensional data for forecasting uncertainty on aircraft trajectories. Assuming that during the flight, aircraft follows his 3D trajectory contained into his initial flight plan, we used all characteristics of flight environment as predictors to explain the crossing time of aircraft at given points on their planned trajectory. These characteristics are: weather and atmospheric conditions, flight current parameters, information contained into the flight plans and the air traffic complexity. Typically, in this study, the dependent variable is difference between actual time observed during flight and planned time to cross trajectory planned points: this variable is called temporal difference. We built four models using method based on partitioning recursive of the sample. The first called classical CART is based on Breiman CART method. Here, we use regression trees to build points typology of aircraft trajectories based on previous characteristics and to forecast crossing time of aircrafts on these points. The second model called amended CART is the previous model improved. This latter is built by replacing forecasting estimated by the mean of dependent variable inside the terminal nodes of classical CART by new forecasting given by multiple regression inside these nodes. This new model developed using Stepwise algorithm is parcimonious because for each terminal node it permits to explain the flight time by the most relevant predictors inside the node. The third model is built based on MARS (Multivariate adaptive regression splines) method. Besides continuity of the dependent variable estimator, this model allows to assess the direct and interaction effects of the explanatory variables on the crossing time on flight trajectory points. The fourth model uses boostrap sampling method. It’s random forests where for each bootstrap sample from the initial data, a tree regression model is built like in CART method. The general model forecasting is obtained by aggregating forecasting on the set of trees. Despite the overfitting observed on this model, it is robust and constitutes a solution against instability problem concerning regression trees obtained from CART method. The models we built have been assessed and validated using data test. Their using to compute the sector load forecasting in term to aircraft count entering the sector shown that, the forecast time horizon about 20 minutes with the interval time larger than 20 minutes, allowed to obtain forecasting with relative errors less than 10%. Among all these models, classical CART and random forests are more powerful. Hence, for regulator authority these models can be a very good help for managing the sector load of the airspace controlled.

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Η τεχνολογία της αναγνώρισης και παρακολούθησης αεροσκαφών βρίσκει ποικίλες εφαρμογές σε όλους τους τομείς της αεροναυσιπλοΐας, πολιτικούς και στρατιωτικούς, από τον έλεγχο και τη ρύθμιση της εναέριας κυκλοφορίας σε πολιτικά αεροδρόμια έως το χειρισμό και την καθοδήγηση αντιαεροπορικών όπλων για στρατιωτικούς σκοπούς (π.χ. το σύστημα TAS του αντιαεροπορικού συστήματος MIM-23B Hawk). Έως σήμερα, γνωστές μέθοδοι υλοποίησης αποτελούν οι ραδιοεντοπιστές (radar), οι υπέρυθρες και οι θερμικές κάμερες, τα οποία είναι εγκατεστημένα σε επίγειους σταθμούς, σε κινούμενες μονάδες και σε αεροσκάφη. Το σύστημα που δημιουργήθηκε και θα παρουσιαστεί στην παρούσα διπλωματική εργασία αποτελεί μια εναλλακτική μέθοδο υλοποίησης της αναγνώρισης και της παρακολούθησης ιπτάμενων αντικειμένων, που εκμεταλλεύεται το οπτικό φάσμα με τη χρήση μιας οπτικής κάμερας ενσωματωμένης σε ένα σερβοκινητήρα. Σε σημεία όπου είναι δύσκολο να εφαρμοσθεί κάποια άλλη τεχνολογία ή σε σημεία που δεν καλύπτονται από άλλες συσκευές ανίχνευσης (π.χ. radar), η συσκευή μας προσφέρει όμοιες υπηρεσίες και συμπληρώνει πιθανά χάσματα ακάλυπτων περιοχών. Συγκεκριμένα, μέσω του λογισμικού που έχει αναπτυχθεί, όταν κάποιος στόχος (αεροσκάφος) εισέλθει στο οπτικό πεδίο της κάμερας, ανιχνεύεται και αναγνωρίζεται. Στη συνέχεια ο σερβοκινητήρας παρακολουθεί τον στόχο τροφοδοτούμενος με δεδομένα της θέσης και της ταχύτητάς του, ενώ βρίσκεται σε συνεχή επικοινωνία με την κάμερα. Όλα τα παραπάνω έχουν αναπτυχθεί ώστε να λειτουργούν σε συνθήκες πραγματικού χρόνου. Παρά την απουσία μιας θεωρητικής παρουσίασης ή μιας ολοκληρωμένης λύσης οπτικής αναγνώρισης και παρακολούθησης αεροσκαφών, η αναζήτηση και μελέτη της διεθνούς βιβλιογραφίας μας έδωσε το θεωρητικό υπόβαθρο για την κατανόηση του προβλήματος και ταυτόχρονα τη δυνατότητα να συνδυάσουμε τεχνικές και μεθόδους για την επίτευξη του στόχου μας. Για την επιτυχή αναγνώριση και παρακολούθηση των στόχων δημιουργήθηκαν διάφορα μοντέλα προσομοίωσης για τον έλεγχο της συμπεριφοράς μεμονομένων χαρακτηριστικών. Συγκεκριμένα, στο υποσύστημα της αναγνώρισης του στόχου μοντελοποιήθηκε αρχικά μια μέθοδος εξαγωγής της θέσης βασισμένη στο χρώμα του στόχου σε περιβάλλον Matlab/Simulink. Στη συνέχεια η ίδια μέθοδος μεταφέρθηκε σε περιβάλλον LabVIEW για να εμπλουτισθεί με διάφορες άλλες μεθόδους βασισμένες σε ένα σύνολο από χαρακτηριστικά που θα αναλυθούν στη συνέχεια. Το τελικό μοντέλο αποτελεί συνδυασμό των μεθόδων του αθροίσματος απολύτων διαφορών, της οπτικής ροής, της εξαγωγής χρωματικών και σχηματικών χαρακτηριστικών, της κανονικοποιημένης εττεροσυσχέτισης και άλλων λογικών μεθόδων και βελτιστοποιήσεων τους. Για την επίτευξη μιας επιτυχυμένης παρακολούθησης ενός “κλειδωμένου” στόχου, δοκιμάστηκαν και έγιναν πολλές προσομοιώσεις με διαφορετικούς τύπους ελεγκτών. Συγκεκριμένα η δυναμική του μοντέλου που δημιουργήθηκε, εξαρτάται από ένα συνδυασμό ελεγκτών θέσεως, ταχύτητας και άλλων παραμέτρων. Αυτά εξασφαλίζουν ένα ευσταθές και γραμμικοποιημένο σύστημα παρακολούθησης, ικανό να παρακολουθήσει οποιοδήποτε στόχο με τη προϋπόθεση ότι τα χαρακτηριστικά του στόχου καθώς και η κατάστασή του (θέση, ταχύτητα κτλ.), ικανοποιούν τις απαιτήσεις του αλγορίθμου αναγνώρισης και είναι μέσα στις εργοστασιακές δυνατότητες του συστήματος. Το μοντέλο αυτό αναπτύχθηκε και υλοποιήθηκε σε περιβάλλον LabVIEW, όπως και οι μετρήσεις και προσομοιώσεις που έγιναν πάνω σε αυτό. Όλες οι παραπάνω μέθοδοι συνεργάζονται και είναι ικανοί να δώσουν ακριβή αποτελέσματα θέσης πραγματικών στόχων κατά τη διάρκεια της ημέρας ακόμα και κάτω από δύσκολες συνθήκες (όπως συννεφιά, χαμηλή φωτεινότητα, παρεμβολή αντικειμένων) σε πραγματικό χρόνο. Η ακραία μεταβολή των περιβαλλοντικών συνθηκών θα επηρρέαζε οποιοδήποτε οπτικό σύστημα, συνεπώς και το παρόν. Περιγραφή των παραγόντων που επηρρεάζουν το σύστημά μας θα γίνει στη συνέχεια. / The technology of aircraft recognition and tracking applies in various applications in all areas of air navigation, civil and military, from air traffic control and regulation at civilian airports to anti-aircraft weapon handling and guidance for military purposes (e.g the TAS system of MIM-23B Hawk anti-aircraft system). To date, known methods of implementation are the radar, infrared and thermal cameras, which are installed at ground stations, in moving plants and aircrafts. The system that was created and is presented in this thesis is an alternative implementation of identifying and tracking flying objects, which operates in the optical spectrum using an optical camera built into a servomotor (pan-tilt unit – PTU). In regions where is difficult for one technology to be applied or in areas that are not covered by other detection devices (e.g. radar), our device offers similar services and complements potential gaps that arise by uncovered areas. Specifically, through the software we developed, when a target (aircraft) enters the field of view of our camera, it is detected and identified. Then the PTU, fed with data of target position and velocity, tracks the aircraft while keeps in constant communication with the camera. All the above have been developed to operate in real time. Despite the lack of a theoretical presentation or a complete solution of optical aircraft recognition and tracking, search and study of literature has given us the theoretical background for understanding the problem and making it possible to combine techniques and methods to achieve our goal. For the successful identification and monitoring of the targets, various simulation models were created to control the behavior of isolated features. Specifically, for the target recognition subsystem a method for extraction of the position based on the color of the target was initially modeled in Matlab/Simulink environment. Then the same method was implemented in LabVIEW to be enriched with several other methods based on a set of features that will be discussed below. The final model is a combination of the sum of absolute differences between two images, the extraction of color and shape profiles, the normalized cross-correlation and other logical methods and their optimizations. In order a successful tracking of a “locked” target to be achieved, there have been many tests and carried out many simulations with different types of controllers. Specifically, the dynamic of the model which was created, depends on a combination of position/velocity controllers and other parameters. These provide a stable and linearized tracking system, capable to follow any target under the condition that the characteristics of the target and its current status (position, speed, etc.) meet the requirements of the recognition algorithm and is within the capabilities of the system. The model was developed and implemented in the LabVIEW environment, as well as measurements and simulations were carried out in it. All these methods work and are able to give accurate results of the position of real targets during the day, even under difficult circumstances (such as clouds, decreased sky brightness etc) in real time. The extreme variation of environmental conditions would affect any optical system and hence could affect ours as well. Description of the factors that affect our system will be presented.

Luftverkehrsprognosen stellen ein wichtiges Instrument dar, die Luftverkehrsinfrastruktur zu beeinflussen. Hinter vielen der Projekte, die von Luftverkehrsprognosen begleitet werden, stehen Interessen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Ausbauvorhaben von Flughäfen, die von eindeutigen Zielen und Wünschen getragen werden. Die Gutachter, die im Rahmen solcher Ausbauvorhaben tätig werden, sind der Gefahr ausgesetzt, beeinflusste Prognosen zu erstellen. Die Art und Intensität dieser Beeinflussung sowie die Methodik dieser Analysen sind Gegenstand dieses Aufsatzes. Zunächst wurden neuere Ergebnisse der OECD und EU erarbeitet und denen der Flughafenstudien gegenübergestellt. Nachfolgend wurde die Intensität der Beeinflussung auf Grundlage einer eigenen Untersuchung analysiert. Dabei wurden politische Entscheidungsträger im Rhein-Main-Gebiet nach Ihrer Verwendung von Studien und deren Ergebnisse befragt. Die Impact Study, als häufigste Forschungsmethodik, wurde in ihre Bestandteile zerlegt und mit der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse, welche die durch die FAA empfohlene Methode ist, verglichen. Grundsätzlich sind solche Gutachten meist externe Analysen aus privatwirtschaftlicher Hand, die einerseits im Auftrag von regionalen Entscheidungsträgern, aber andererseits auch im Auftrag von Flughafen- und Fluggesellschaften angefertigt wurden. Die Unabhängigkeit der Prognosen ist damit gefährdet. Auf Grundlage der (neutralen) OECD- und EU-Ergebnisse zeigte sich, dass etwaige regionale Wirtschaftsimpulse und damit einhergehendes Beschäftigungswachstum durch erhöhten Flugverkehr nicht zu finden sind. Die kritische Analyse von „bezahlten Studien“ ist demnach von Bedeutung. Die Mehrzahl der politischen Amts- und Entscheidungsträger in Deutschland trifft allerdings Entscheidungen auf Basis keiner oder ausschließlich nicht-neutraler, bezahlter Auftragsstudien. Historisch betrachtet ist dies kein Novum. Bereits in den 60er Jahren kann man solche Studien und Entscheidungen nachweisen. Bezüglich des Forschungsdesign zeigte sich, dass Impact-Studien kaum für zur Beurteilung des Luftverkehrs geeignet sind. Sie beziehen die relevanten Effekte nur teilweise in ihre Berechnungen ein. Es wurde eine Reihe von systematischen Fehlern identifiziert. Die FAA-Richtlinien in den USA für methodisch korrekte Studien greifen nur wenig. Für weitere Forschung sehen wir die wichtige Aufgabe, die Methodik der Full Cost-Benefit-Analyse für die Prognose möglicher Effekte zur Anwendung zu bringen. / Aviation traffic forecasts and airport analyses are important instruments which influence decisions on aviation related infrastructure. Behind many of such infrastructure projects, which are supported by forecast analyses, one finds political interests. This is especially the case for aviation projects, such as infrastructure enlargement projects of airports, which are motivated by distinct goals and desires. Referees who act within this framework are exposed to the risk of producing biased results. The form and degree of intensity of such influence and manipulation, as well as the methodology of such forecast analyses, are the subject of this working paper. To begin with, newer research results by the OECD and the EU have been formulated and further compared to results of studies commissioned by airport operators. Subsequently, the degree of intensity of such influence has been analysed on the basis of our own research. A survey was thereby produced, investigating the application of neutral and non-neutral studies in the decision-making processes of the public administration in the Rhein-Main-area. Impact studies, which are currently the most used method, have been segmented and compared with studies using full cost-benefit-analysis, the recommended method by the FAA. With regard to these results, it can be argued that most forecast analyses are produced by private consultancies, by order of public entities but also by order of airport operators. The independence of such research and its results is therefore endangered. Recent OECD and EU research results have shown that eventual effects, such as regional economic stimulus and employment growth, are absent. Thus, care in the application of study results in this field is necessary. However, the majority of policy makers (in Germany) unfortunately base their decisions mostly on non-neutral studies. Historically seen, this is not a novelty. Regarding the research design, impact studies are hardly suitable for airport studies. Further, it can be shown that impact studies incorporate mostly only non-negative items in their cash flow calculations, compared to full cost-benefit-analyses which incorporate all relevant items. A number of systematic flaws are further identified. The regulation-guidelines by the FAA, which demand to incorporate all items, have had little impact on the research design of airport studies in the US so far. The promotion and fostering of full cost-benefit-analyses is necessary to lift the quality of airport studies.

La thèse porte sur la conception et l'analyse mathématique de méthodes de Monte Carlo fiables et précises pour l'estimation de la (très petite) probabilité qu'un processus de Markov atteigne une région critique de l'espace d'état avant un instant final déterministe. L'idée sous-jacente aux méthodes de branchement multi-niveaux étudiées ici est de mettre en place une suite emboitée de régions intermédiaires de plus en plus critiques, de telle sorte qu'atteindre une région intermédiaire donnée sachant que la région intermédiaire précédente a déjà été atteinte, n'est pas si rare. En pratique, les trajectoires sont propagées, sélectionnées et répliquées dès que la région intermédiaire suivante est atteinte, et il est facile d'estimer avec précision la probabilité de transition entre deux régions intermédiaires successives. Le biais dû à la discrétisation temporelle des trajectoires du processus de Markov est corrigé en utilisant des régions intermédiaires perturbées, comme proposé par Gobet et Menozzi. Une version adaptative consiste à définir automatiquement les régions intermédiaires, à l’aide de quantiles empiriques. Néanmoins, une fois que le seuil a été fixé, il est souvent difficile voire impossible de se rappeler où (dans quel état) et quand (à quel instant) les trajectoires ont dépassé ce seuil pour la première fois, le cas échéant. La contribution de la thèse consiste à utiliser une première population de trajectoires pilotes pour définir le prochain seuil, à utiliser une deuxième population de trajectoires pour estimer la probabilité de dépassement du seuil ainsi fixé, et à itérer ces deux étapes (définition du prochain seuil, et évaluation de la probabilité de transition) jusqu'à ce que la région critique soit finalement atteinte. La convergence de cet algorithme adaptatif à deux étapes est analysée dans le cadre asymptotique d'un grand nombre de trajectoires. Idéalement, les régions intermédiaires doivent êtres définies en terme des variables spatiale et temporelle conjointement (par exemple, comme l'ensemble des états et des temps pour lesquels une fonction scalaire de l’état dépasse un niveau intermédiaire dépendant du temps). Le point de vue alternatif proposé dans la thèse est de conserver des régions intermédiaires simples, définies en terme de la variable spatiale seulement, et de faire en sorte que les trajectoires qui dépassent un seuil précocement sont davantage répliquées que les trajectoires qui dépassent ce même seuil plus tardivement. L'algorithme résultant combine les points de vue de l'échantillonnage pondéré et du branchement multi-niveaux. Sa performance est évaluée dans le cadre asymptotique d'un grand nombre de trajectoires, et en particulier un théorème central limite est obtenu pour l'erreur d'approximation relative. / The thesis deals with the design and mathematical analysis of reliable and accurate Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the (very small) probability that a Markov process reaches a critical region of the state space before a deterministic final time. The underlying idea behind the multilevel splitting methods studied here is to design an embedded sequence of intermediate more and more critical regions, in such a way that reaching an intermediate region, given that the previous intermediate region has already been reached, is not so rare. In practice, trajectories are propagated, selected and replicated as soon as the next intermediate region is reached, and it is easy to accurately estimate the transition probability between two successive intermediate regions. The bias due to time discretization of the Markov process trajectories is corrected using perturbed intermediate regions as proposed by Gobet and Menozzi. An adaptive version would consist in the automatic design of the intermediate regions, using empirical quantiles. However, it is often difficult if not impossible to remember where (in which state) and when (at which time instant) did each successful trajectory reach the empirically defined intermediate region. The contribution of the thesis consists in using a first population of pilot trajectories to define the next threshold, in using a second population of trajectories to estimate the probability of exceeding this empirically defined threshold, and in iterating these two steps (definition of the next threshold, and evaluation of the transition probability) until the critical region is reached. The convergence of this adaptive two-step algorithm is studied in the asymptotic framework of a large number of trajectories. Ideally, the intermediate regions should be defined in terms of the spatial and temporal variables jointly (for example, as the set of states and times for which a scalar function of the state exceeds a time-dependent threshold). The alternate point of view proposed in the thesis is to keep intermediate regions as simple as possible, defined in terms of the spatial variable only, and to make sure that trajectories that manage to exceed a threshold at an early time instant are more replicated than trajectories that exceed the same threshold at a later time instant. The resulting algorithm combines importance sampling and multilevel splitting. Its preformance is evaluated in the asymptotic framework of a large number of trajectories, and in particular a central limit theorem is obtained for the relative approximation error.

This thesis addresses the problems of collision avoidance and coalition formation of multiple UAVs in high density traffic environments, proposes simple and efficient algorithms as solutions, and discusses their applications in multiple UAV missions. First, the problem of collision avoidance among UAVs is considered and deconfliction algorithms are proposed. The efficacy of the proposed algorithms is tested using simulations involving random flights in high density traffic. Further, the proposed collision avoidance algorithms are implemented using realistic six degree of freedom UAV models. The studies in this thesis show that implementation of the proposed collision avoidance algorithms leads to a safer and efficient operational airspace occupied by multiple UAVs. Next, coalition formation in a search and prosecute mission involving a large number of UAVs and targets is considered. This problem is shown to be NP-hard and a sub-optimal but polynomial time coalition formation strategy is proposed. Simulations are carried out to show that this coalition formation algorithm works well. The coalition formation algorithm is then extended to handle situations where the UAVs have limited communication ranges. Finally, this thesis considers some multiple UAV missions that require the application of collision avoidance and coalition formation techniques. The problem of multiple UAV rendezvous is tackled by using (i) a consensus among the UAVs to attain rendezvous and (ii) the collision avoidance algorithm previously developed for safety. The thesis also considers a search and prosecute mission where the UAVs also have to avoid collisions among one another. In summary, the main contributions of this thesis include (a) novel collision avoidance algorithms, which are conceptually simple and easy to implement, for resolving path conflicts – both planar and three dimensional – in a high density traffic airspace with UAVs in free flight and (b) efficient coalition formation algorithms for search and prosecute task with large number of UAVs and targets where UAVs have limited communication ranges and targets are maneuvering. Simulations to evaluate the performance of algorithms based on these concepts to carry out realistic tasks by UAV swarms are also given.