The Swedish death rate related to narcotics is amongst the highest within the EU. The purpose of this study is to use process tracing while investigating and understanding the high death rate among people who use narcotics in Sweden. The focus is on whether the Swedish drug policy is driven by morals instead of scientific proof and asks whether morals are the main cause of the high death rate in Sweden. The study utilizes the “threshold theory” and the theory of “symbolic politics.” To do this the following questions are being answered: “How has the Swedish zero tolerance towards narcotics looked like since the 1970s until present day?” and “are there any signs to proof that the Swedish drug policy is driven more by morals than by scientific evidence, and if so, what are they?” The study also tests the hypothesis that the high death rate is related to the restrictive drug policy in Sweden. In order to answer this the study collects data and regulations from different time periods in Sweden thru a qualitative method. The study confirms that the Swedish drug policy is driven by moral while overlooking scientific proof and it is also likely that the hypothesis of the study is true.

Submitted by Patrick Sales (patrick_laser@yahoo.com.br) on 2015-12-18T18:01:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2015-12-18T19:28:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-12-21T18:15:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-21T18:15:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-11-26 / A modernização da Marinha do Brasil se faz necessária em face de fatores relacionados à obsolescência dos meios, incremento tecnológico e outros incentivos de ordem doméstica e internacional. No caso brasileiro, apesar de haverem diversos programas de reaparelhamento desde a proclamação da república, os programas de maior envergadura e que geraram resultados importantes ocorreram em 1910, 1977 e 2007. O Reaparelhamento da Marinha do Brasil responde principalmente a incentivos de ordem sistêmica e doméstica. A sua efetividade é o principal objetivo de um programa de incremento material, e muito mais do que orientação à defesa da pátria, os objetivos expressos na grande estratégia de um país devem preceder a decisão de repotencialização da Força. O trabalho utiliza a metodologia histórico comparativa, por meio do método denominado Process Tracing. Essa incipiente metodologia permite verificar as evidências ao longo de processos e verificar a hierarquização de cada fator por meio de testes empíricos baseados na minuciosa descrição histórica dos casos. As teorias realistas buscam explicações para o comportamento dos países em relação ao Sistema Internacional. O ambiente anárquico em que se encontram os países definem suas preferências, mas o aspecto doméstico responde fortemente a esses incentivos sistêmicos e justifica as diferentes conduções de políticas externas em ambiente similar. A teoria neoclássica considera os fatores domésticos como intervenientes neste processo. Por meio do modelo desenvolvido por Schweller (2006), este trabalho verificou que o aspecto sistêmico é determinante para o reaparelhamento da Marinha, e no âmbito doméstico o consenso e coesão das elites são necessárias, entretanto a coesão social passou de coadjuvante a uma das condições necessárias a partir do início do século XXI no processo de reaparelhamento. / The Brazilian Navy’s modernization is needed in the face of factors related to obsolescence, technological advances and other domestic and international incentives. In Brazil, although there are several refit programs since beginning of Republic, the biggest programs and whose generated important results occurred in: 1910, 1977 and 2007. The Modernization of the Brazilian Navy responds mainly to systemic and domestic incentive. Its effectiveness is the main goal of a material increase program, and more than orientation to country’s defense, the objectives expressed in the grand strategy should precede the Armed Forces re-powering decision The paper uses historical comparative method, using the method called Process Tracing. This incipient methodology for verifying the evidence over processes and verify each factor’s hierarchy through empirical tests based on thorough historical description of cases. Realistic theories seek explanations for countries’ behavior on International System. The anarchic environment in which they are, define their preferences, but the domestic aspect responds strongly to these systemic incentives and justifies the different conduction of foreign policies in a similar environment. The neoclassical theory considers the domestic factors as stakeholders in this process. Through the model developed by Schweller (2006), this study found that the systemic aspect is crucial to the reequipping of the Navy, and domestic consensus and cohesion of the elites are necessary, however social cohesion went from supporting one of the conditions necessary from the beginning of the XXI century in the repowering process.

The aim of this study is to analyse the Moderate Party and the Swedish Democrats idea development in the issue of migration in 2010-2018. The inquiry consists of the following two research questions. How has the Moderate Party and the Swedish Democrats positions regarding migration developed in 2010-2018? How can institutional theories explain the Moderate Party and the Swedish Democrats idea development? The study is encompassed by three theoretical perspectives also recognised as rational-choice institutionalism, historical institutionalism and discursive institutionalism. In regard to the methodological approach, the study employs the comparative case study design with the most-similar system and is essentially an idea analytical study. The main results reveal that both the Moderate Party and the Swedish Democrats have adjusted their migration policies but to different degrees. The Swedish Democrats promote similar policies in 2010 as in 2018 with smaller alterations while the Moderate Party has customised larger alterations, distinguishing the party’s migration policy from 2010 and 2018. These policy alterations are primarily explained as a result of rational action, societal discourses and critical junctures.

North Korea twice conducted ballistic missile tests close to Japan in 1998 and 2006. While Japan responded with non-coercive condemnations to demonstrate its disapproval in 1998, it imposed unilateral economic sanctions in 2006, marking the first instance in post-World War II of applying a substantial coercion to punish a neighbouring state. The research asks why Japanese policy toward the North shifted for a seemingly identical type of provocation. The dissertation seeks contextual explanations by using inductive process-tracing, a type of ‘middle approach’ between historical narratives and parsimonious theories. It is applied to highlight the underlying mechanism through which public discursive changes concerning national security and North Korea during this eight-year period influenced the subsequent policy shift in 2006. The dissertation concludes that the unilateral sanctions were not necessarily a calculated strategic response to punish the missile launch (or North Korean nuclear programs) per se, but were a direct consequence of a deeper shift in societal discourse taking place beforehand. During the eight-year period, there had been other visible provocations and shocks originating from the North, especially the sensational revelation in 2002 of past North Korean abductions of Japanese citizens. These highly-publicized incidents facilitated the Japanese public to be increasingly conscious about Japan’s security weaknesses and re-evaluate its historical relations with its neighbour, leading to a hardened domestic environment in which the new idea of pressuring the North became a feasible option even before 2006. These North Korean provocations and the resulting societal security discourse, along with concurrent structural changes in the Japanese government and mass media which made them both highly susceptible to discursive currents among citizens, mutually interacted to produce the policy result when the opportunity arose. The research, however, also challenges the popular view that the sanctions are the first example of the wholesale transformation of Japan’s post-war ‘pacifist’ security principles. It argues that the confined means (economic) by which the sanctions were imposed reflects the highly nuanced discourse, which endorses Japan’s legitimate right to specifically punish the North for the harms done, but that the societal momentum is not equally supportive of the more controversial areas concerning military usage and the current constitution.

North Korea twice conducted ballistic missile tests close to Japan in 1998 and 2006. While Japan responded with non-coercive condemnations to demonstrate its disapproval in 1998, it imposed unilateral economic sanctions in 2006, marking the first instance in post-World War II of applying a substantial coercion to punish a neighbouring state. The research asks why Japanese policy toward the North shifted for a seemingly identical type of provocation. The dissertation seeks contextual explanations by using inductive process-tracing, a type of ‘middle approach’ between historical narratives and parsimonious theories. It is applied to highlight the underlying mechanism through which public discursive changes concerning national security and North Korea during this eight-year period influenced the subsequent policy shift in 2006. The dissertation concludes that the unilateral sanctions were not necessarily a calculated strategic response to punish the missile launch (or North Korean nuclear programs) per se, but were a direct consequence of a deeper shift in societal discourse taking place beforehand. During the eight-year period, there had been other visible provocations and shocks originating from the North, especially the sensational revelation in 2002 of past North Korean abductions of Japanese citizens. These highly-publicized incidents facilitated the Japanese public to be increasingly conscious about Japan’s security weaknesses and re-evaluate its historical relations with its neighbour, leading to a hardened domestic environment in which the new idea of pressuring the North became a feasible option even before 2006. These North Korean provocations and the resulting societal security discourse, along with concurrent structural changes in the Japanese government and mass media which made them both highly susceptible to discursive currents among citizens, mutually interacted to produce the policy result when the opportunity arose. The research, however, also challenges the popular view that the sanctions are the first example of the wholesale transformation of Japan’s post-war ‘pacifist’ security principles. It argues that the confined means (economic) by which the sanctions were imposed reflects the highly nuanced discourse, which endorses Japan’s legitimate right to specifically punish the North for the harms done, but that the societal momentum is not equally supportive of the more controversial areas concerning military usage and the current constitution.

This paper examines causal mechanisms of the process leading up to the Russian military intervention in Syria that began in September 2015. It aims to concretize the causal processes of three different hypotheses that are based on commonplace assumptions of Russian foreign policy on Syria. It thoroughly explores three different causal paths, mapping events that may have had implications to the apparent change of heart within the Russian leadership. The paper analyses the relevance of these processes through a rational choice theory framework.

This paper seeks to conduct a first test of the explanatory potential of the poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision-making in the context of small states. The case studied is the Swedish decision to contribute to the UN-sanctioned and NATO-led Operation Unified Protector in 2011. The paper conducts a theory-testing Causal Process Tracing (CPT) study drawing on a variety of different sources including news articles, parliamentary records, government bills, official statements and remarks made by key individuals, and secondary sources. The result of the analysis demonstrate the potential validity of the poliheuristic understanding of the decision- making process operating in a small state, but fall short of demonstrating actual validity. The final results are thus more akin to results typically found in a plausibility probe case study, and future research is deemed merited based on the potential validity found.

This thesis deals with policy failure and policy success and aims at introducing this issue into the context of the Czech Republic. The main perspective of the thesis follows approaches to analysis of policy success and policy failure developed by Mark Bovens, Paul 't Hart, and Allan McConnell. Their theoretical assumption is complex, as they evaluate the policies upon the criteria of the more general dimensions (process, program, and politics). The goal of the thesis is not only to utilize their theoretical background but also to refine and reconceptualize current theory of policy success and policy failure, respectively. The thesis is based on case study research design. The chosen case - organizational reform of labor offices - is considered as a typical policy failure. I describe and analyze in detail the selected case with a wide range of qualitative and quantitative methods. This reform was extensive and was realized in two stages. The first stage focused on the organizational structure (from decentralized to centralized management). The second stage included changes in the content of the public employment services provided by the labor offices (the newly introduced services were all non-insurance social benefits). The analysis of labor offices reform seeks to answer the following questions,...

Abductive reasoning is the process of finding the best explanation for a set of observations. The theory of abductive reasoning (TAR, Johnson & Krems, 2001) allows detailed process assumptions that were only partly tested in detail up until now. This thesis employs an artificial abductive reasoning task, the Black Box task, and eye tracking measures in order to gain insight into the process. The first part of this thesis aims at evaluating process measures based on eye tracking and using them in order to gain a better understanding of the processes postulated in TAR such as the construction of a situation model or retrieval of relevant information. The second part investigates the relationship between working memory and abductive reasoning by manipulating the amount of information stored in memory and examining the relationship between visual abductive reasoning and working memory skills. In a last part a perspective to the transferability of our results to everyday life tasks is given. The first study focuses on differentiating between processes that take place during the encoding and the evaluation of observation information by comparing eye movement measures. In the second study, we tested process assumptions such as the construction of a mental representation from TAR using memory indexing, an eye tracking method that makes it possible to trace the retrieval of explanations currently held in working memory. Gaze analysis revealed that participants encode the presented evidence (i.e., observations) together with possible explanations into memory. When new observations are presented, the previously presented evidence and explanations are retrieved. With the memory indexing method, we were able to assess the process of information retrieval in abductive reasoning, which was previously believed to be unobservable. The theory of abductive reasoning (TAR; Johnson & Krems, 2001) assumes that when information is presented sequentially, new information is integrated into a mental representation called a situation model, the central data structure on which all reasoning processes are based. Since working memory capacity is limited, the question arises how reasoning might change with the amount of information that has to be processed in memory. To answer this question, we conducted a third experimental study, in which we manipulated whether previous observation information and previously found explanations had to be retrieved from memory or were still present in the visual array. We analyzed individual ratings of difficulty as well as behavioral data and reasoning outcomes. Our results provide evidence that people experience differences in task difficulty when more information has to be retrieved from memory. This is also evident in changes in the mental representation as reflected by eye tracking measures. However, these differences are not evident in the reasoning outcome. These findings suggest that individuals construct their situation model from both information in memory as well as external memory stores. The complexity of the model depends on the task at hand: when memory demands are high, only relevant information is included. With this compensation strategy, people are able to achieve similar reasoning outcomes even when faced with more difficult tasks. The precise relationship between reasoning and working memory capacity remains largely opaque. Combining data of both studies from chapter 3 and 4, we firstly investigated if reasoning performance differs due to differences in working memory capacity. Secondly, using eye tracking, we explored the relationship between the facets of working memory and the process of visuospatial reasoning. Therefore both, a test for storage and processing, and content components (verbal-numerical/ spatial) of working memory as well as an intelligence measure, were engaged. Results show a clear relationship between reasoning accuracy, spatial storage and processing components as well as intelligence. Process measures suggest that high spatial working memory ability might lead to the use of strategies optimizing the content and complexity of the mental representation on which abductive reasoning is based. In a fifth study, we aimed to investigate whether there are also indicators for the mechanisms postulated by TAR in a task that is closer to real life reasoning. Therefore, we asked participants to solve 12 jigsaw puzzles whereby the abductive task was the identification of the motive presented on the puzzles. Thereby, the pieces of the puzzles posed as observation and hypotheses to the motive of the puzzle as explanations. As a process tracing measure, we used thinking aloud. Verbal protocols were recorded, transcripted and carefully coded according to the operators and explanation types postulated in TAR. We found evidence that participants use most of the operators with a likeliness that significantly lies above chance level. We also found evidence of the existence of the different explanation types. Eye movements were able to give insight in the interrelations between working memory, attention, and action. Therefore, this work contributes to understanding abductive reasoning, not only by testing the assumptions of TAR, but also by finding relations between memory, action and thought. The results do not only account for abductive reasoning in an artificial task but also in everyday life reasoning.:1 Introduction 1 1.1 Theories on Abductive Reasoning and Beyond 4 1.1.1 Theory of Abductive Reasoning 4 1.1.2 Other Theories 7 1.2 Reasoning, Working Memory, and Mental Representation 9 1.3 Process Tracing 11 1.4 An Artificial Abductive Task: The Black Box 12 1.5 Overview and Research Objectives 15 1.5.1 Differentiating between Encoding and Processing 15 1.5.2 Current Explanations in Memory 16 1.5.3 Information Stored in Memory 16 1.5.4 More than Storage of Information 17 1.5.5 In the Context of Everyday Life 18 1.5.6 Summary, Perspectives, and Conclusion 18 2 The Possibilities of Eye Tracking: Differentiating between Encoding and Processing 21 2.1 Abstract 22 2.2 Introduction 23 2.3 Method 26 2.3.1 Participants 26 2.3.2 Task and Apparatus 27 2.3.3 Procedure 28 2.3.4 Analysis 29 2.4 Results 30 2.5 Discussion 32 3 Tracing Current Explanations in Memory: A Process Analysis Based on Eye Tracking 37 3.1 Abstract 38 3.2 Introduction 39 3.2.1 Current Explanations of Abductive Reasoning 41 3.2.2 Tracing the Reasoning Process 44 3.2.3 Present Study 45 3.3 Method 48 3.3.1 Participants 49 3.3.2 Apparatus 49 3.3.3 Material 50 3.3.4 Procedure 53 3.4 Results 54 3.4.1 Performance 54 3.4.2 Gaze Analyses 55 3.4.3 Hypothesis 1: Information Stored in the Situation Model 57 3.4.4 Hypothesis 2: Different Types of Explanations—Concrete vs. Abstract 61 3.5 Discussion 67 3.5.1 Information Stored in the Situation Model 68 3.5.2 Concretely and Abstractly Explained Observations 68 3.5.3 TAR and Current Theories on Abductive Reasoning 70 3.5.4 Tracing Memory Processes 72 3.5.5 Conclusion 74 Appendix 3.1 75 Appendix 3.2 76 Appendix 3.3 77 Appendix 3.4 78 4 Information Stored in Memory Affects Abductive Reasoning 79 4.1 Abstract 80 4.2 Introduction 81 4.2.1 The Reasoning Process 82 4.2.2 Visual Attention 85 4.2.3 Research Objectives 86 4.2.4 This Study 87 4.2.5 Using Eye Movements as a Method to Assess Memory Retrieval 89 4.2.6 Hypotheses 89 4.3 Method 92 4.3.1 Participants 92 4.3.2 Apparatus 92 4.3.3 The Black Box Task 92 4.3.4 Procedure 95 4.3.5 Pairwise Comparisons 96 4.4 Results 96 4.4.1 Performance 96 4.4.2 Gaze Analysis 99 4.4.3 Hypothesis 1: Differences Experienced in Task Difficulty 101 4.4.4 Hypothesis 2: Elements of the Situation Model 102 4.4.5 Hypothesis 3: Integrative Solutions 105 4.5 Discussion 107 4.5.1 Differences Experienced in Task Difficulty 108 4.5.2 Elements of the Situation Model 108 4.5.3 Integrative Solutions 110 4.5.4 Summary 112 5 More than Storage of Information – What Working Memory Contributes to Visual Abductive Reasoning 113 5.1 Abstract 114 5.2 Introduction 115 5.2.1 Working memory 116 5.2.2 Relations between Abductive Reasoning Working Memory Capacity 118 5.2.3 Eye Movements as a Process Tracing Method 119 5.2.4 Abductive Reasoning Outcomes and Working Memory Ability. 120 5.2.5 Abductive Reasoning Processes and Working Memory Ability 121 5.3 Method 123 5.3.1 Participants 124 5.3.2 Apparatus 124 5.3.3 Material 125 5.3.4 Procedure 127 5.4 Results 128 5.4.1 Analysis 128 5.4.2 Abductive Reasoning Accuracy and Working Memory Ability 131 5.4.3 Abductive Reasoning Processes and Working Memory Ability 132 5.5 Discussion 135 5.5.1 The Interaction of Reasoning Accuracy and Memory Ability 135 5.5.2 The Interaction of the Process of Reasoning and Memory Ability 136 5.5.3 Conclusion 138 6 The Theory of Abductive Reasoning in the Context of Everyday Life 141 6.1 Abstract 142 6.2 Introduction 143 6.2.1 Abduction in “Real Life” 145 6.3 Method 146 6.3.1 Participants 146 6.3.2 Task 147 6.3.3 Material 148 6.3.4 Apparatus 148 6.3.5 Procedure 149 6.3.6 Coding system 150 6.4 Results 153 6.4.1 Analysis 153 6.4.2 Descriptive Data 153 6.3.3. Likeliness of Operator Use 155 6.5 Discussion 156 6.5.1 Operator Use 156 6.5.2 Explanation Types 157 6.5.3 Perspectives 158 7 Summary, Perspectives, and Conclusion 159 7.1 The Process of Abductive Reasoning 159 7.2 Contributions of other Theories 162 7.3 Eye Tracking and its Methodological Implications 164 7.4 Future Research and Applications 167 7.5 Conclusion 169 8 References 171 Curriculum Vitae 191 Publications 196

This dissertation examines the impact of trauma on information-seeking behaviors and decision-making processes. Essay 1 includes a qualitative analysis of the transcripts obtained from interviews with four military service members diagnosed with PTSD. The results showed that 75% of this small sample population exhibited addictive behavior that was presented in their information behaviors. All four members indicated that the excessive extent to which they seek information is related to the perceived importance of the information and their level of trust in the sources. Low trust in information sources increases the number of sources searched for validation in this population. Essay 2 involved the collection and analysis of survey data. The results of the stepwise backward regression show that two trauma variables (adult sexual assault, sudden fear) have a significant combined negative effect on decision-making in this population. The analysis and results of a different survey are presented in Essay 3. The stepwise logistic regression analysis results conducted on the summated scales developed showed a strong positive link between trust in scientific experts for scientific information and the dichotomous dependent variable trust in social media for news. The research conducted in this dissertation extends the understanding of how trauma affects people's information-seeking habits and decision-making processes. The findings have implications for how to communicate, policies relevant to information dissemination, and mental health measures. Future research is suggested to understand these behaviors and potential treatments better.