Severe flooding events in recent years have underlined the importance of accurate hydrological modelling in urban areas. There are many important parameters relating to both the rainfall distribution and properties of the land on which the rain falls that controls the impacts of the rain event. While the importance of input parameters such as initial water content, topography and extent of hardened surfaces is widely known, their impact on hydrological response in urban areas is not thoroughly understood. In 2017, scientists from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, presented five empirical hyetographs based on long-term Swedish municipal rain data (Olsson, et al., 2017). The hyetographs vary in location of peak and distribution of intensity. Olsson (2019) evaluated the hydrological response in terms of water depth of the hyetographs in relation to Chicago Design Storm (CDS), a common design storm used in Swedish hydrological modelling, and found that CDS nearly always overestimates the hydrological response in comparison to the empirical hyetographs, meaning historical rainfall intensity distributions, developed by SMHI.  The aim of this thesis is to analyse the robustness of empirical hyetographs by conducting a sensitivity analysis of a generic urban model with a variation of input parameters. A statistical analysis of data on hardened surfaces, topography and initial water content was conducted to find the median, 5th and 95th percentile respectively of the range of values in Swedish conditions. These values were applied to a synthetic urban model and run together with the five empirical hyetographs and CDS in MIKE 21. The results indicate that the empirical hyetographs are not very robust relating to variations in infiltration capacity (initial water content and amount of hardened areas), while they are more robust when varying the topography. The variation of topography also resulted in large variations in water depth, time to peak and extent of flooded area, while variation of initial water content and amount of hardened surfaces had smaller, although still clear, effects. Furthermore, the results show that hyetographs with a late peak are more sensitive to variations in initial water content and hardened surfaces than hyetographs with an early peak. On average, CDS estimates the response in comparison to the empirical hyetographs accurately, with an average overestimation of 0.5%, but does not capture the range and complexity of the empirical hyetographs. Including the frequency of the different hyetographs, CDS gave an overestimation of 5% compared to the empirical hyetographs. The highlight the uncertainty in using CDS as input for urban cloudburst modelling, but limitations in form of catchment properties in a study area and the importance of the input values limits the generability of the study. / De senaste årens allvarliga översvämningshändelser har understrukit vikten av noggrann hydrologisk modellering i stadsområden. Även om betydelsen av parametrar som initial vattenmättnad, topografi och andelen hårdgjorda ytor är allmänt känd, är deras inverkan på urban hydrodynamisk modellering inte helt klarlagd. Under 2017 presenterade forskare från Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut, SMHI, fem empiriska hyetografer baserade på långvariga kommunala regndata (Olsson et al., 2017). Hyetograferna varierar i fördelning av intensitet och tidsmässig placering av maxintensitet. Olsson (2019) utvärderade hyetografernas hydrologiska respons i relation till Chicago Design Storm (CDS), en vanlig designstorm som används i svensk hydrologisk modellering, och fann att CDS nästan alltid överskattar responsen i jämförelse med de empiriska hyetograferna.  Syftet med detta examensarbete är att analysera robustheten hos de empiriska hyetograferna genom att utföra en känslighetsanalys av en generisk stadsmodell med en variation av ingångsparametrar. En statistisk analys av data om hårdgjorda ytor, topografi och initial vattenmättnad genomfördes för att hitta median, 5:e respektive 95:e percentilen av värdena i svenska förhållanden. Dessa värden applicerades på en generisk stadsmodell och kördes tillsammans med de fem empiriska hyetograferna och CDS i MIKE 21. Resultaten indikerar att de empiriska hyetograferna inte är helt robusta vad gäller variationer i infiltrationskapacitet (initial vattenmättnad och andel hårdgjorda ytor), medan de är mer robusta vid variation av topografin. Variationen av topografi resulterade också i stora variationer i vattendjup, tid till maxflöde och utbredning av översvämmat område, medan variation av initial vattenmättnad och mängden hårdgjorda ytor hade mindre, men fortfarande tydliga, effekter. Vidare visar resultaten att hyetografer med sen topp är känsligare för variationer i initial vattenhalt och hårdgjorda ytor än hyetografer med tidig topp. I genomsnitt uppskattar CDS responsen från de empiriska hyetograferna korrekt, med en genomsnittlig överskattning på 0.5%, men fångar inte omfånget och komplexiteten hos de empiriska hyetograferna. Inräknat frekvensen av de olika hyetograferna gav CDS en överskattning på 5 % jämfört med de empiriska hyetograferna. Resultaten belyser osäkerheterna i att använda CDS regn som drivdata i skyfallsmodelleringar för stadsplanering, men begränsningar i form av markegenskaper i ett enskilt studieområde och vikten av modellens initialvärden begränsar dock generaliteten för studien.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-27T14:18:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Roberta Maia Marcon.pdf: 786825 bytes, checksum: 17ff39c24c5b9b198943e9b875f41af5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-10-17 / This study intention was to experimentally investigate the control by antecedent events, such as control to respond to discriminative stimulus or by motivating operation, and also by consequent events on the verbal response from three people: two males and a female, diagnosed with schizophrenia, aged 26 and 53 years. It was applied functional assessment strategies through direct and indirect observation, as well as by functional analyses or function analyses methodology. The latter implicates in the environmental events manipulation, especially in four conditions: attention, control, escape demand and alone. These conditions were manipulated in the presence of motivating operation, identified based on context variables, and operation in the presence of positive and negative reinforcement (attention conditions and escape demand). Functional analyses data indicated that bizarre vocalizations were issued with high frequency conditions attention and escape demand; showing the control to respond to establishing or reinforcement operation. For the control condition it was possible to decrease the effect from changing the reinforced stimuli effectiveness from the establishing operation. However, bizarre vocalizations were not emitted as the reinforcement stimulus were offered regardless it occurred or not, as reinforcement operation was not used. When alone, the bizarre vocalizations were abolished, evidencing the control to respond to the presence of abolishing operation and without reinforcement operation. Based on this study information, the conclusion is that the control exercised by antecedent events explains the control exercised from consequent events. This is because in different antecedent conditions, the probability of bizarre vocalization changes, justifying the necessity to analyze with same relevance the control from antecedent and consequent events as response to experimental manipulation as in this context. The functional analysis was complementary to the functional assessment from direct observation, which data were not enough to elucidate controlled events to bizarre vocalization. In addition, it was complementary to the functional assessment by direct observation that, although with enough data to indicate manipulations, these are from an experimental strategy. For this reason it was justified the use of functional analysis methodology from empiric studies about the control from the antecedents from behavior, including bizarre vocalizations from people with schizophrenia. / O presente estudo objetivou investigar experimentalmente o controle exercido pelos eventos antecedentes seja o controle do responder pelo estímulo discriminativo ou pela operação motivadora , e também pelos eventos consequentes sobre as respostas verbais de três pessoas: duas do sexo masculino e uma do sexo feminino, com diagnóstico de esquizofrenia e idades entre 26 e 53 anos. Com essa finalidade, empregou-se estratégias de avaliação funcional por observação indireta e por observação direta e a análise funcional ou metodologia de análise funcional. Esta última envolveu a manipulação de eventos ambientais em quatro condições principais: atenção, controle, fuga de demanda e sozinho. Essas condições foram manipuladas na presença de operação motivadora, identificada com base em variáveis de contexto, e na presença de operação de reforçamento positivo e negativo (condições atenção e fuga de demanda). Os dados da análise funcional apontaram que as vocalizações bizarras foram emitidas com alta frequência nas condições atenção e fuga de demanda, sendo evidenciado o controle do responder pela operação estabelecedora e pela operação de reforçamento. Na condição controle foi possível deduzir o efeito de alterar a eficácia do estímulo reforçador pela operação estabelecedora. Contudo, as vocalizações bizarras não foram emitidas haja vista que o estímulo reforçador foi disponibilizado independentemente da ocorrência das mesmas, por estar ausente uma operação de reforçamento. Na condição sozinho as vocalizações bizarras foram suprimidas, sendo evidenciado o controle sobre o responder quando na presença de operação abolidora e ausência de operação de reforçamento. Com base nos dados deste estudo conclui-se que o controle do responder exercido pelos eventos antecedentes melhor elucida o controle exercido pelos eventos consequentes. Isso porque na presença de diferentes condições antecedentes as vocalizações bizarras alteraram sua probabilidade de ocorrência na operação de reforçamento, o que justifica a importância de se analisar, com igual relevância, o controle pelos eventos antecedentes e consequentes sobre o responder em manipulações experimentais no contexto aplicado. Cumpre ressaltar que a análise funcional mostrou-se complementar à avaliação funcional por observação indireta, cujos dados não se mostraram suficientes para elucidar eventos controladores das vocalizações bizarras. Também mostrou-se complementar à avaliação funcional por observação direta que, embora forneça dados suficientes para delinear manipulações, estas se dão por meio de uma estratégia com a estrutura de um experimento. Isso justifica o uso da metodologia de análise funcional em estudos empíricos acerca do controle exercido pelos antecedentes sobre o comportamento, incluindo vocalizações bizarras de pessoas com diagnóstico de esquizofrenia.

Submitted by Angela Maria de Oliveira (amolivei@uepg.br) on 2018-11-13T15:51:07Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Melissa Koch Fernandes.pdf: 13195142 bytes, checksum: 6f749b7b1da141696e2c5981f9a657d1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-11-13T15:51:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 811 bytes, checksum: e39d27027a6cc9cb039ad269a5db8e34 (MD5) Melissa Koch Fernandes.pdf: 13195142 bytes, checksum: 6f749b7b1da141696e2c5981f9a657d1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-09-13 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O rio Pitangui, de curso antecedente, é afluente da margem direita do rio Tibagi e percorre três municípios (Castro, Carambeí e Ponta Grossa) da região centro-leste do estado do Paraná. Embora todo o seu curso esteja submetido ao mesmo tipo climático, Cfb de Köeppen, e mesma unidade fitogeográfica, Floresta Ombrófila Mista, a diferença altitudinal e distintas litotipias representadas pelo degrau topográfico da Escarpa Devoniana, e a consequente separação entre os Planaltos Paranaenses, determinam diferenças geo-morfo-hidro-pedológicas marcantes. Foram selecionadas dez estações amostrais ao longo do rio nos dois planaltos, e para cada estação foram: a) alocadas nove parcelas de 5 x 10 m dispostas em três linhas paralelas à margem do rio, onde foram mensurados e identificados todos os indivíduos com DAP ≥ 5 cm; b) foram instalados e mensurados três poços hídricos (1,20 cm x 5,0 cm) e c) realizadas análises químicas e físicas dos solos. Foi observado que a variação do nível do lençol freático e a composição dos solos são os principais fatores determinantes das variações florísticas e estruturais identificadas ao longo do curso do rio. No Primeiro Planalto Paranaense (PPP), o Ambiente Ripário 1, caracteriza-se por relevo plano sujeito a inundações permanentes ou periódicas, com vegetação hidrófila a higrófila sobre solos hidromórficos a semi-hidromórficos. As espécies mais importantes foram Sebastiania commersoniana, Erythrina crista-galli, Symplocos uniflora e Sebastiania brasiliensis. Ainda no PPP, o Ambiente Ripário 2, constitui área ecotonal com a Represa de Alagados, trata-se de um ambiente mais alçado, com vertente moderada pouco sujeito a inundações, com vegetação mesófila sobre solos não-hidromórficos, cuja espécie mais importante foi Nectandra grandiflora. No Segundo Planalto Paranaense (SPP), o Ambiente Ripário 3, representado por relevo plano a suave ondulado, com vegetação mesófila que se desenvolve sobre solos preferencialmente não-hidromórficos. As espécies mais importantes foram Nectandra grandiflora e Eugenia uniflora. Em todos os ambientes os solos são sempre ácidos, com elevado conteúdo de carbono total nas camadas superficiais e percolação de fósforo nas estações amostrais próximas a cultivos agrícolas. A distribuição dos grupos funcionais de espécies mesófilas, higrófilas e hidrófilas se revelou bom indicador da variação do nível freático. Na escala de paisagem percebe-se que os fenômenos multiescalares seguem subordinados, ou seja, a modelagem do substrato geológico determina a flutuação do freático e a formação e distribuição de solos, e esse por sua vez, determina a cobertura vegetal. Estudos integrados desse porte fornecem subsídios seguros para programas de restauração florestal em ambientes ripários. / Pitangui is an antecedent river, a major right tributary of the Tibagi River, which crosses three municipalities along the East-Central region of the State of Paraná. Although being subjected to the same climate, Cfb of Köeppen, and same phytogeographic unit, temperate forest, its altitudinal differences and distinct litotipies represented by the Devonian Escarpment topographic slope, and the consequent separation between the Paraná plateaus, determine remarkable geo-pedo-hydromorphological differences. It was observed that the groundwater level variation and the soil composition are the main drivers of floristic and structural variations among these riverine forests. On the First Plateau (PPP), the Riparian Environment #1 is characterized by relief plan subject to permanent or periodic flooding with hydrophylous or hygrophilous vegetation over hydromorphic or semi-hydromorphic soils. The main species are Sebastiania commersoniana, Erythrina crista-galli, Symplocos uniflora, and Sebastiania brasiliensis. Yet in PPP, Riparian Enviroment #2 is an ecotonal area within Alagados Reservoir. This is a more elevated one, subject to few floodings, with mesophylous vegetation on no-hydromorphic soils, which main specie is Nectandra grandiflora. On the Second Plateau (SPP), Riparian Environment #3 is characterized by relief plan to slighltly undulating with mesophylous vegetation on soils preferably non-hydromorphic. The main species are Nectandra grandiflora and Eugenia uniflora. In all environments soils are ever acid with high contents of total carbon in the surface layers, as well percolation of phosphorus next to agricultural crops areas. The functional groups distribution among mesophilous, higrophilous, and hidrophilous species were good indicators of the ground water level flutuation. On a landscape scale, multiescalar phenomena are subordinated, as geological modeling determine ground water levels as well soils orign and distribution. These one drives the vegetation settlement. Integrated studies like this provide insurance subsidies for forest restoration programs in riparian environments

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2017-11-30T15:12:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Sidnei da Silva Perfeito_.pdf: 1480498 bytes, checksum: be584b0dbad66bb993ebb9a645870f0d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-30T15:12:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sidnei da Silva Perfeito_.pdf: 1480498 bytes, checksum: be584b0dbad66bb993ebb9a645870f0d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-14 / Nenhuma / É notório que os conflitos por terras reclamadas por indígenas ainda persistem, mesmo depois do reconhecimento conferido pela Constituição Federal de 1988 e da paradigmática decisão sobre a demarcação da Terra Indígena (TI) Raposa Serra do Sol. A vasta normatização sobre o tema, tanto no âmbito global como local, não foi suficiente para que o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) prolatasse decisão que reconhecesse a ancestralidade do direito à ocupação, e com isso colaborasse na pacificação do assunto. Portanto, a pergunta que se pretende responder contempla tal cenário contraditório: se houve efetivo reconhecimento formal, por que, apesar disso, os índios ainda reivindicam as terras que simbolizam sua cultura e sua razão de existir? A partir dessa indagação é que se lança um olhar perspectivado pelas teorias de Axel Honneth e de Nancy Fraser na busca de ideias que possam representar a superação do quadro de falta de efetividade dos direitos dos povos indígenas. De início, Honneth defendeu uma teoria monista de reconhecimento cujo fundamento reside na autorrealização, pois entende que as experiências de sofrimento e de exclusão formam o combustível capaz de desencadear lutas que repercutem nos movimentos sociais, e assim haveria a emancipação do indivíduo a ponto de resolver também os problemas de distribuição. Noutra direção, em debate com Honneth, Fraser alega que o reconhecimento por si só é incapaz de resolver todas as injustiças e que é preciso conjugar medidas aptas a promover a distribuição. A partir desses estudos, os doutrinadores concebem outras propostas que objetivam superar a invisibilidade, transpor a subordinação de status, entender a reificação como produto do esquecimento do reconhecimento antecedente e a importância dos contrapúblicos em relação às arenas oficiais de debate. Norteando-se por esse referencial teórico, empreendeu-se uma revisão da evolução do reconhecimento formal dos direitos dos indígenas e uma crítica ao modo como referidas normas foram recebidas na decisão da demarcação da TI Raposa Serra do Sol e outras decisões que igualmente não contribuíram para a pacificação dos conflitos. Ao final, tencionou-se mostrar que as teorias de Honneth e de Fraser - isoladamente ou aliadas - podem contribuir para a efetivação dos direitos territoriais já reconhecidos aos indígenas. / It is well-known the conflicts for land claimed by indigenous peoples still persist, even after the recognition of the lands granted by the Federal Constitution of 1988 and the paradigmatic decision about the demarcation of Raposa Serra do Sol Indigenous Land. The vast regulation concerning the theme, both at global and local level, was not enough for the Federal Supreme Court to pronounce a decision recognizing the ancestry of the right to occupation and, thereby, to collaborate to pacify the issue. The question to be answered has this contradictory scenario: if there was an effective formal recognition, why, despite this, do the Indians still claim the lands that symbolize their culture and their reason to exist? From this question, a look is cast, under the theories of Axel Honneth and Nancy Fraser, in the search for ideas that can represent the overcoming of the frame of effectiveness of indigenous peoples’ rights. At the beginning, Honneth defended a monistic recognition theory, based on self-realization, once he understands the experiences of suffering and exclusion are able to form the fuel that will commence struggles which have repercussion on social movements and, with this, would happen an individual emancipation able to solve distribution problems. In another direction, debating with Honneth, Fraser says recognition, by itself, is unable to solve all injustices and so it is necessary to combine measures capable of promoting distribution. From these studies, the authors conceive other proposals aimed at overcoming invisibility, subordination status, understanding reification as a product of forgetfulness of antecedent recognition, and the importance of counterpublics in relation to official debate arenas. Always guided by this theoretical reference, it was done a review of the evolution of formal indigenous rights recognition and a critique of the way these norms were received in the demarcation trial of Raposa Serra do Sol Indigenous Land and other decisions likewise did not contribute to pacify conflicts. At the end, it was attempted to demonstrate that Honneth and Fraser’s theories, isolated or allied, can contribute for the realization of territorial rights already recognized to indigenous.

Submitted by admin tede (tede@pucgoias.edu.br) on 2017-10-25T17:03:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ana Maria Lisboa Cesarino de Paula.pdf: 1005253 bytes, checksum: 5368dd1d941408f029b9df78fbb61a5d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-25T17:03:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ana Maria Lisboa Cesarino de Paula.pdf: 1005253 bytes, checksum: 5368dd1d941408f029b9df78fbb61a5d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-09-04 / The present study investigated the control exerted by antecedent and consequent events on the fear responses of three women diagnosed with anxiety disorder, and aged 45-74 years. To research these events was applied the process of functional assessment by using the strategies: (a) indirect functional assessment through interview (appointment), (b) direct functional assessment through direct observation, and (c) functional analysis or functional analysis methodology. The functional analysis consisted of the manipulation environmental events, especially in four principal conditions: attention, demand, alone and control. The attention condition was subdivided in (1) to contact-attention, (2) to worryattention, and (3) to establish-attention. The data obtained with the procedures adopted in the indirect assessment by interview, as well as that ones in direct observation of participants in the natural environment provided important subsidies to the experimental framework of functional analysis, and showed complementary to it. The functional analysis results demonstrated that the fear responses occurred with high frequency in attention and demand conditions, and didn't occur in alone and control conditions. However, one class of results, sensorial stimulation occurred in high frequency in alone condition. So, it was evident the control on fear responses by the sources positive and negative reinforcement, while the sensorial stimulations were controlled by automatic reinforcement. The date obtained make evident that the investigation by functional analysis methodology demonstrated the importance of fear responses control by using sources of positive reinforcement, negative reinforcement, and automatic reinforcement. The process of functional assessment applied in this study proved to be effective, once it was showed the control exerted by antecedent and consequent events on the fear responses and sensorial stimulation of the participants; than this way it is justified its application to evaluate the behavior of people diagnosed with anxiety disorder. / O presente estudo investigou o controle exercido pelos eventos antecedentes e consequentes sobre as respostas de medo de três pessoas do sexo feminino com diagnóstico de transtorno de ansiedade e idades entre 45 e 74 anos. Para pesquisar esses eventos foi usado o processo de avaliação funcional por meio das estratégias: (a) avaliação funcional indireta por entrevista, (b) avaliação funcional por observação direta e (c) análise funcional ou metodologia de análise funcional. A análise funcional constou da manipulação de eventos ambientais em quatro condições principais: atenção, demanda, sozinho e controle, sendo que a condição de atenção foi subdividida em (1) atençãocontactar, (2) atenção-preocupar e (3) atenção-constatar. Os dados obtidos com os procedimentos adotados na avaliação indireta por entrevista, bem como a observação direta dos participantes no ambiente natural, forneceram importantes subsídios para a armação experimental da análise funcional e se mostraram complementares a ela. Os resultados da análise funcional demonstraram que as respostas de medo ocorreram com alta frequência nas condições de atenção e demanda e não ocorreram nas condições sozinho e controle. No entanto uma classe de respostas, estimulação sensorial, ocorreu em alta frequência na condição sozinho. Evidenciou-se, assim, o controle das respostas de medo pelas fontes de reforçamento positivo e negativo. Já as estimulações sensoriais foram controladas pelo reforçamento automático. Os dados obtidos evidenciam que a investigação por meio da metodologia de análise funcional demonstrou a importância do controle das respostas de medo por fontes de reforçamento positivo, reforçamento negativo e reforçamento automático. O processo de avaliação funcional empregado por este estudo provou ser eficaz, uma vez que ficou evidenciado o controle exercido pelos eventos antecedentes e consequentes sobre as respostas de medo e estimulação sensorial das participantes, sendo que assim se justifica seu emprego para avaliar os comportamentos de pessoas com o diagnóstico de ansiedade.

The scarcity of data poses a challenging obstacle for the study of natural disasters, especially in developing countries where the social vulnerability plays as important a role as the physical vulnerability.  The work presented in this thesis is oriented towards the demonstration of the usefulness of press archives as a data source for the temporal and spatial analysis of landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras for the period between 1980 and 2005.  In the last four decades, Tegucigalpa has been characterized by a disorganized urban growth that has significantly contributed to the destabilization of the city’s slopes.  In the first part of the thesis, a description of the database compilation procedure is provided.  The limitations of using data derived from press archives have also been addressed to indicate how these affect the subsequent landslide analyses.  In the second part, the temporal richness offered by press archives has allowed the establishment of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence.  Through the use of the critical rainfall intensity method, the analysis of rainfall thresholds for 7, 15, 30 and 60 antecedent days shows that the number of yielded false alarms increases with the threshold duration.  A new method based on the rainfall frequency contour lines was proposed to improve the distinction between days with and without landslides.  This method also offers the possibility to identify the landslides that may only occur with a major contribution of anthropogenic disturbances as well as those landslides induced by high-magnitude rainfall events.  In the third part, the matrix method has been employed to construct two landslide susceptibility maps: one based on the multi-temporal press-based landslide inventory and a second one based on the landslide inventory derived from an aerial photograph interpretation carried out in 2014.  Despite the low spatial accuracy provided by the press archives in locating the landslides, both maps exhibit 69% of consistency in the susceptibility classes and a good agreement in the areas with the highest propensity to landslides.  Finally, the integration of these studies with major actions required to improve the process of landslide data collection is proposed to prepare Tegucigalpa for future landslides.

Le comportement des rivières au cours du rifting joue un rôle important dans la sédimentation syn-rift et la distribution de la subsidence. Pendant la croissance des failles normales, les rivières répondent aux mouvements verticaux. En réponse au soulèvement tectonique, les rivières peuvent être déviées vers les zones en subsidence ou inversées. Les rivières peuvent aussi inciser les zones en soulèvement. L'évolution à long terme des rivières et leurs enregistrements stratigraphiques restent mal documentés pendant les processus de croissance et de migration des failles normales. Cette thèse analyse les interactions entre les rivières antécédentes et la croissance des réseaux de failles normales. Les implications en termes de distribution des faciès syn-rift sont étudiées à l'échelle du bassin et des blocs de failles. Les dépôts fluviatiles et deltaïques sont préservés dans plusieurs blocs de failles normales soulevés le long de la marge sud du rift de Corinthe (Grèce). Les logs sédimentaires et la cartographie des faciès syn-rift permettent le découpage lithostratigraphique de la zone d'étude. La série syn-rift est principalement conglomératique et difficile à dater. La magnétostratigraphie et quelques marqueurs biostratigraphiques sont utilisés pour dater et corréler les dépôts entre les différents blocs de faille. L'analyse des isotopes cosmogéniques 26Al et 10Be dans les dépôts a permis la détermination d'âge d'enfouissement. L'ensemble des âges obtenus par ces différentes méthodes permet de proposer un modèle de corrélation et de reconstruire l'évolution du rift précoce entre 3,6 et 1,8 Ma environ. (1) Le système fluviatile étudié évolue à travers plusieurs blocs de failles actives. (2) Le système de drainage antécédent hérité de la chaîne hellénique est caractérisé par un flux sédimentaire important depuis le début du rifting. (3) Le système fluviatile (au moins 30 km de long) remplit le paléorelief et le flux sédimentaire dépasse largement l'accommodation créée par les failles. L'enfouissement des failles par le système fluviatile limite la création de topographie et le développement d'un réseau de drainage conséquent. (4) L'axe fluviatile antécédent reste constant et contrôle la distribution des faciès. (5) Les changements de faciès et les architectures alluviales sont observés à l'échelle du bassin et ne sont pas directement contrôlés par les variations d'accommodation dans les blocs de failles. (6) Les zones d'accommodation maximale sont ici disposées parallèlement à l'axe fluviatile antécédent. La persistance des rivières et le flux sédimentaire pendant plusieurs centaines de milliers d'années ont permis la localisation de la déformation, induisant une rétroaction positive sur la croissance des failles. Le système distributaire se termine à l'est où des deltas progradent en milieu lacustre peu profond. Les systèmes de dépôts fluviatiles, deltaïques et turbiditiques actifs à l'initiation du rift de Corinthe enregistrent l'approfondissement diachrone du bassin. Le comportement des rivières antécédentes est aussi étudié à l'échelle d'une zone de relais entre deux failles bordières actuellement actives. Pendant le Pléistocène moyen et supérieur, la zone de relais a capturé la rivière antécédente de Krathis qui a construit une succession de deltas. La connexion entre les deux failles majeures est marquée par (1) des failles obliques dites "de transfert", (2) plusieurs familles de terrasses marines enregistrant le soulèvement diachrone de la rampe de relais, et (3) la migration progressive de l'accommodation vers le bassin. Cette étude permet pour la première fois de reconstruire les processus de connexion de failles sur une période 0,5 Ma. La rivière Krathis persiste au cours du développement de la zone de relais et met en évidence, une fois de plus, l'importance des rivières antécédentes dans la localisation des dépocentres majeurs dans les rifts / Rivers behaviour during early rifting can significantly impact on syn-rift sedimentation and the distribution of subsidence. During normal fault growth, existing rivers can be diverted toward subsiding zones. They can respond to footwall uplift either by reversing their flow or by incising into uplifting zones. Long-lived river systems and their stratigraphic record in rifts are poorly documented, not only during early fault propagation and linkage processes but also during successive migrating phases of fault activity. We investigate the interactions of major antecedent rivers with a growing normal fault system and the implications for facies distributions, both on a basin scale and at the scale of individual normal fault blocks. Along the southern margin of the western Corinth rift (Greece), the Plio-Pleistocene fluvial and deltaic successions are investigated. Syn-rift deposits are preserved in a series of uplifted normal fault blocks (10–20 km long, 3–7 km wide). Detailed sedimentary logging and high resolution mapping of the syn-rift deposits document variations of alluvial architecture across the basin and enable to define lithostratigraphic units. Magnetostratigraphy and rare biostratigraphic data are used to date and correlate the alluvial succession between fault blocks. Burial ages were tentatively determined using cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 26Al produced in situ in quartz grains. Based on the correlation model, we reconstruct the evolution of the early western Corinth rift between about 3.6 and 1.8 Ma. (1) The transverse and antecedent Kalavryta river system flowed and deposited across a series of active normal fault blocks. (2) This river system was inherited from the Hellenide mountain belt and supplied high volumes of coarse sediments from the onset of extension. (3) As depocentres enlarged through time, the fluvial deposits progressively filled palaeorelief. A continuous braided plain developed above active buried faults and no significant consequent drainage system developed between the narrow fault blocks. (4) The main fluvial axis of the antecedent drainage persists through time and controlled facies distribution. (5) The length scale of facies transitions is greater than, and therefore not related to fault spacing. Here, along-strike subsidence variations in individual fault blocks represent a secondary contributor to the alluvial architecture. (6) The zones of maximum subsidence on individual faults are aligned across strike, parallel to the persistent fluvial axis. This implies that long-term sediment supply and loading influenced normal fault growth. Sediment supply largely outpaced local hangingwall subsidence and overfilled the early rift basin. The river system terminated eastward where small deltas are built into a shallow lake that occupied the central Corinth rift. During this time, another river system built fan deltas along the southern margin, recording diachronous deepening of the basin. The behaviour of antecedent rivers is also studied at the scale of a relay zone, that developed later in the rift history between two growing fault segments. During the Middle to Late Pleistocene, the relay zone captured the antecedent Krathis River, which deposited prograding Gilbert-type deltas. Transfer faults record progressive linkage and basinward migration of accommodation along the ramp axis, while marine terraces record diachronous uplift in their footwalls. Although early linkage occurred, the main normal faults continued to propagate until final connexion. For the first time a reconstruction of the linkage phase is presented over a period of ca. 0.5 Myr. Throughout this linkage history, the Krathis River continued to flow across the relay zone. Again, this emphasizes the role of antecedent rivers in supplying sediments and controlling the location of the major depocentres along the rift margins

Submitted by Danielle Macedo Aranha (dani_0102@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-09-06T21:00:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 A RELAÇÃO DOS INDICADORES DE CONFIANÇA COM O CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO.docx: 658170 bytes, checksum: 8db8fac9d73ee52753d7dea622caa12f (MD5) / Rejected by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: Prezada Danielle, boa tarde. Para que possamos aprovar seu trabalho, favor fazer as seguintes correções: - Nas páginas que são inseridos os títulos do arquivo devem estar em NEGRITO; -"Lista de Figuras" e "Lista de Tabelas" devem estar centralizadas na página e também em negrito. Favos fazer as correções, qualquer dúvida mande um e-mail para mestradoprofissional@fgv.br ou ligue 3799-7764 Att, Thais Oliveira on 2017-09-11T18:21:15Z (GMT) / Submitted by Danielle Macedo Aranha (dani_0102@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-09-11T18:54:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 A RELAÇÃO DOS INDICADORES DE CONFIANÇA COM O CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO.docx: 658733 bytes, checksum: fa7738dbb3e7a53acc869bbc06a98776 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2017-09-11T19:17:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 A RELAÇÃO DOS INDICADORES DE CONFIANÇA COM O CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO.docx: 658733 bytes, checksum: fa7738dbb3e7a53acc869bbc06a98776 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-12T13:54:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 A RELAÇÃO DOS INDICADORES DE CONFIANÇA COM O CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO.docx: 658733 bytes, checksum: fa7738dbb3e7a53acc869bbc06a98776 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-29 / The objective of this work is to understand how the confidence indexes can be used as predictors of GDP estimated by two methods: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and Autoregressive Vectors (VAR), with estimates outside the sample. The period adopted for this work comprises the beginning of 2002 until May 2017, considering all the quarterly series. The series adopted were taken from surveys published by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) of the Getulio Vargas Foundation and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We have identified that confidence indicators may be good predictors of economic growth, however, they could not be used in isolation to determine the changing trend of the economic cycle. In addition, the inclusion of macroeconomic variables did not eliminate the predictive power of confidence indicators. It was verified through the models that they have a significant weight that can partially explain the cycle of economic activity, but the short period of the variables is still limiting for their complete evaluation, especially when trying to verify their short-term relationship. / O trabalho tem como objetivo compreender como os índices de confiança podem ser utilizados como previsores do PIB estimados por dois métodos: método dos Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO) e Vetores Autoregressivos (VAR), com previsões fora da amostra. O período adotado para este trabalho compreende o início de 2002 até maio de 2017, considerando todas as séries trimestrais. As séries adotadas foram extraídas das pesquisas divulgadas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE) da Fundação Getulio Vargas e pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Identificamos que os indicadores de confiança podem ser bons preditores do crescimento econômico, contudo, não poderiam ser usados isoladamente para determinar a mudança de tendência do ciclo econômico. Adicionalmente, a inclusão de variáveis macroeconômicas não eliminou o poder preditivo dos indicadores de confiança. Verificou-se através dos modelos que eles possuem um peso significante que podem explicar parcialmente o ciclo da atividade econômica, mas o curto período das variáveis ainda é limitador para sua completa avaliação, principalmente, quando se tenta verificar sua relação de curto prazo.

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