Le groupe alimentaire des légumes et fruits en est un dont les bénéfices sur la santé ont été largement reconnus notamment en diminuant les risques de maladies chroniques telles que l'obésité, le diabète et certains cancers. Malgré les recommandations, un nombre considérable de Canadiens et Québécois n' atteignent pas le nombre minimal de portions recommandé par le Guide alimentaire canadien, spécialement les populations à faible revenu. L'accès économique aux aliments, en particulier la capacité à payer pour des aliments recommandés, est un déterminant important de la saine alimentation chez les ménages à faible revenu et compterait parmi les causes des inégalités sociales de santé. Cette étude exploratoire s'est intéressée à la variation du coût des fruits et légumes dans différents milieux socio-économiques de la région de Québec. Deux constats ressortent: (1) le coût d'un panier de fruits et légumes varie selon les types d' établissement (grande surface, surface conventionnelle, petite surface, fruiterie, dépanneur), mais non avec le niveau d'urbanisation (urbain; rural) ni la défavorisation matérielle et (2) tous les types d' établissement à l'étude sont plus nombreux par 100 km² dans le milieu urbain par rapport au milieu rural. D'autres études, couvrant un plus grand territoire et incorporant les aspects de l'environnement alimentaire sont nécessaires afin de conclure sur l' effet de l' accès économique aux fruits et légumes sur les inégalités de santé dans la région. Des actions et solutions pourraient être ainsi initiées afin d' éviter que des écarts de santé, s'ils existent, ne s'accentuent.

Tableau d'honneur de la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales, 2011-2012 / Ce travail de recherche propose un modèle dynamique des décisions de gestion du sol de la part d'un fermier lorsqu'il y a présence de conflits. Dans le contexte modélisé, la baisse de fertilité et la dégradation du sol entrave la sécurité alimentaire et le bien-être économique, comme par exemple en Afrique subsaharienne. La qualité du sol est modélisée comme une ressource naturelle renouvelable, alors que la présence de conflits est modélisé à l'aide d'un paramètre captant le risque de perde la terre (risque d'expropriation). Construire le problème économique de manière intertemporelle fait ressortir sous quelles conditions un fermier rationnel changera sa décision d'une stratégie de gestion durable à très long terme à une stratégie caractérisée par l'extinction defa la ressource. Nous caractérisons l'équilibre à long terme et comment celui-ci peut varier en fonction du risque d'expropriation.

Ce mémoire porte sur l'impact de la hausse des tarifs des médecins spécialistes du Québec en 2001. Cette augmentation a été en moyenne de 10o/c pour tous les tarifs inclus dans notre échantillon. Cependant, si l'on se limite aux tarifs ayant effectivement augmenté, cette augmentation moyenne passe à 20%. Nous disposons de données panel sur les médecins spécialistes du Québec pour la période de 1996-2002, mais n'utiliserons que les années 2000-2002 de façon à ne pas capter l'influence de l'introduction de la rémunération mixte de 1999. À l'aide de ces données, nous avons analysé l'impact de l'augmentation des tarifs sur les comportements des médecins, c'est-à-dire, leur volume d'actes, leurs heures de travail ainsi que la répartition de celles-ci entre les heures cliniques et les heures non-cliniques. De plus, nous avons analysé l'impact d'un tel changement sur la qualité des services offerts par les médecins telle que mesurée par le temps moyen passé par acte clinique. Les données proviennent de la Régie de l'assurance-maladie du Québec ainsi que des sondages annuels du Collège des médecins du Québec. Pour effectuer nos analyses, nous avons estimé un modèle à effet fixe. Nous avons divisé notre échantillon en plusieurs sous-échantillons selon le mode de rémunération du médecin ou selon le sexe. Nous avons ainsi analysé neuf sous-échantillons. Les médecins de notre échantillon ne changent pas de rémunération entre les années et sont présents en 2000 et doivent être présents au moins en 2001 ou 2002. De plus, nous avons estimé le modèle à l'aide d'un pooled tobit en présence d'observations censurées à zéro. Nos estimations permettent d'obtenir plusieurs résultats généraux fort intéressants. L'impact d'une augmentation des tarifs sur le volume d'actes est en relation inverse avec l'âge des médecins. L'impact est positif pour les jeunes médecins mais devient de plus en plus négatif à mesure que le médecin vieillit. Pour ce qui est des revenus, la relation est semblable, mais malgré l'avancement en âge l'impact demeure positif. Nous remarquons qu 'en ce qui a trait aux heures de travail, peu de changements sont observables. Ceci est dû au contre-balancement entre la diminution des heures cliniques et l'augmentation des heures non-cliniques se sommant donc en un effet nul sur les heures de travail.

The music industry is a market of superstars, that is a market where a relatively small number of people earn enormous amounts of money and dominate the activity in which they engage (Rosen,1981). Theories on the superstars phenomenon suggest that luck (Adler, 1985) or talent (Rosen, 1981) are the driving forces behind success. Thus, the “superstars models” left performers with no “active” role: successful artists are either endowed with an innate talent far above the average or are extremely lucky. However, all musicians (talented or not; lucky or not) take continuously decisions that affect their career. Chapter 1 and 2 of this dissertation analyze in details some of these decisions and their influence on success.<p>Chapter 1, Rock Bands: Matching, Recording & Work Organization,4 investigates the impact of partnerships, matching, and work organization on the success of rock musicians using a unique database of 1,494 albums released between 1970 and 2004. We show that rock bands differ in their work organization because the agreements between the members of band are different. These agreements can be seen as implicit contracts. Drawing on this observation, we develop a model where agents (musicians) with different levels of creativity match (to form a band) and produce a joint output (a song). We show that the way agents match (positively or negatively) is correlated with success and depends on the (in)completeness of contracts. The theoretical results are supported by the data.<p>Chapter 2, Musical Characteristics and Success in Commercial Music, analyzes the relationship between musical characteristics, that can objectively be measured, and different types of success (commercial success, critical success, and success assessed by music lovers). We show that the strength and the direction (positive or negative) of the relationship between success and musical characteristics vary with the measure of success.<p>The third chapter goes in a slightly different direction than the two others as it deals with long term reputation of composers rather than commercial success of pop-rock musicians. Chapter 3, The Formation of the Canons of the Baroque Music, analyzes the reputation of baroque composers over time. The dataset makes it possible to describe the evolution of composers’ reputation and of the baroque canon. The entries in seven important musical dictionaries written between 1790 and 2000 are used to measure reputations. We provide evidence that a consensus exists between musicologists, who often rely on their predecessors’ work.<p><p>References:<p>Adler, M. (1985). Stardom and talent. American Economic Review, 75, 208-211.<p>Rosen, S. (1981). The economics of superstars, American Economic Review, 71, 845–858.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

For decades, economic theories have been mostly based on rational choices made by selfish individuals to maximize their utility, while sociology spent a lot of efforts describing the environment of individuals and explaining how this environment shapes theirs decisions. However, the last thirty years have seen many sociological concepts appear in the economic literature. For example, behavioral economics introduces things such as envy or altruism in economic theories. Other notions such as social capital, social norms, trust or community became more and more present in economic papers. The objective of this new strand of literature is to engage into sort of socioeconomic approach and to shed some light on interpersonal relationships. This thesis belongs to this socioeconomic approach, and tries to explore new aspects of various concepts. The two first papers are theoretical. In the first one, we explore the negative side of social capital, which has not been studied extensively, by investigating the effect of a norm on consumers when moving is costly. In the second one, we introduce a sociological concept, namely social identity, in a classic economic model in order to show how social interactions modifies its results, and hence, the importance of taking such interpersonal relationships into account. The third and final paper is an empirical case study of social capital in Belgium, an exercise that has not been done before, with the objective of comparing the level of social capital between the various regions of the country. <p><p>In the first paper, The Tyranny of Social Norms on Individual Behavior, we study the negative effect of the existence of a norm and moving cost inside a community. Because of deviation cost (such as social shame or peer pressure for example), consumers inside a given community may not reach their ideal consumption, that is the consumption they would have without social constraint. On the other hand, moving to another community may be too expensive (in terms of social assets needed to be part of the new community). Hence, agents may get stuck in their community, being forced to consume something they do not want to. One example of such behavior is the underinvestment in education in some neighborhood. We show that such equilibria are possible and that they may be socially suboptimal equilibria as well as Pareto inferior equilibria. We also show that state intervention can correct those “bad” equilibria by operating transfers between agents in order to lower the moving cost.<p><p>In the second paper, Social Identity, Advertising and Market Competition, we use a particular approach of a sociological concept, namely Social Identity, which focuses on the fact that people want to signal who they are to others. We assume that this is done by choosing a specific consumption (think of fashion market for example). We show that under this assumption, the classical result of Bertrand Price Competition does not hold anymore, and that prices and profits are positive, meaning that social identity creates market power for firms. Moreover, if the number of goods is limited, groups will be formed, and there will be multiple equilibria, each one corresponding to a particular partition of the consumers. We then add the possibility for firms to use advertising. This allows consumers to have a coordination tool, but increases also market powers for firms. We investigate the various equilibria that arise and their impact in term of welfare.<p><p>In the third paper, Social Capital in Belgium, we construct an index of social capital using the European Social Survey, and we show that this index can be decomposed in three aspects: Trust, Social Activities and Social Network. We then study whether there is a difference in social capital between Belgium’s regions or not. We show that indeed, such difference exists, even when controlling for socioeconomic variables. In a third part, we investigate whether the level of social capital is higher or lower in Belgium than in other European countries, and we analyze European regional differences in term of social capital.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Compared to the globalized markets of goods and services, technology production has been often described as “far from globalized” and mainly concentrated in the home country of multinational enterprises. However, academics and international organizations recognize that research and development (R&D) activities are increasingly performed at the international level. In particular, the globalization of innovation is a major concern since it is at the crossroads of the rising importance of knowledge economy and the increasing international slicing of firms’ value chains. In this context, the main motivations of this thesis are to investigate the extent to which innovation takes place across national borders and to analyze the drivers of this phenomenon across countries and across industries. For this purpose, this dissertation provides new evidence on the globalization of innovation in four empirical essays using patent-based indicators.<p><p>First, the relevance of patent statistics as indicators of innovation is evaluated by studying the relationship between expenditures in R&D activities and patenting efforts. Chapter 2 decomposes this relationship at the industry level to shed light on the origins of the worldwide surge in patent applications. The empirical investigation of the R&D-patent relationship relies on a unique panel dataset composed of 18 manufacturing industries in 19 countries covering the period from 1987 to 2005, for which five broad patent indicators are developed. This study shows that patent applications at the industry level reflect not only research productivity, but also two main components of the propensity to patent which are firms’ strategic considerations: the decision to protect an invention with a patent (the “appropriability strategy”) and the number of patents filed to protect an innovation (the “filing strategy”). The comparison between the results for various patent count indicators provides also interesting insights. While some industries (computers and communication technologies) and countries (South Korea, Spain, and Poland) have experienced a drastic increase in patent applications, the ratio of priority patent applications to R&D expenditures has been generally constant. This result suggests that there has been no spurt in innovation productivity. In contrast, regional applications (filings at the United States Patent and Trademark Office or at the European Patent Office) have been increasing since the early 1990s, suggesting that the patent explosion observed in large regional patent offices is due to the greater globalization of intellectual property rights rather than a surge in research productivity. Innovative firms are increasingly targeting global markets and hence have a higher tendency to seek protection in key markets worldwide.<p><p>Chapter 3 introduces, firstly, aggregate patent-based indicators to measure the globalization of innovation production. Secondly, it describes the patterns in international technology production for a large panel dataset covering 21 industries in 29 countries from 1980 to 2005. A strong growth in the intensity of globalization of innovation is confirmed not only in terms of cross-border ownership of innovation, but also in terms of international technological collaborations. More interestingly, heterogeneity across countries and industries is observed. On the one hand, more innovative countries (or industries) do not present more globalized innovation footprint. On the other hand, the ownership of innovation is still strongly concentrated in a few countries, although its location is increasingly dispersed across the world. Thirdly, it investigates empirically two main opposing motives driving the internationalization of innovation: home-base augmenting and home-base exploiting strategies. The results show that the degree of internationalization of innovation is negatively related to the revealed technological advantage of countries across industries. Countries tend to be more technologically globalized in industrial sectors in which they are less technologically specialized. The empirical findings suggest also that countries with multidisciplinary technological knowledge are more likely to take part in international co-inventions of new technologies and to be attractive for foreign innovative firms. This aggregated patent-based analysis provides additional evidence that globalization of innovation is a means of acquiring competences abroad that are lacking at home, suggesting that home-base augmenting motives matter in the globalization of innovation production. By contrast, the internationalization of innovation does not seem to be purely market-driven since large economies are not the target of foreign innovative firms and international patenting is more related to international competitiveness of country-industry pairs than to the direction of trade flows.<p><p>While the previous chapter studies the globalization of innovation of a country with the rest of world, Chapter 4 aims at explaining who collaborates with whom in the international production of technology. In particular, the impact of technological distance between partner’s economies is investigated for a panel dataset covering international co-inventions between 29 countries in 21 industries between 1988 and 2005. The descriptive analysis highlights that the overall growth in internationalization of innovation is due to both the increase in the number of international innovative actors and the rise of the average intensity of collaboration. The empirical findings then suggest that the two main arguments related to technological distance – ‘similarity versus diversity’ – can be reconciled by taking an industry approach. Indeed, the estimation results show that the impact of technological distance is twofold on the intensity of collaborative innovation at industry level. On the one hand, the more similar the industry-specific knowledge of two countries (low technological distance within the industry), the more easily they collaborate by sharing common industrial knowledge. On the other hand, the more different their non-industry-specific knowledge (high technological distance outside the scope of the industry), the more they collaborate to gain access to broad and interdisciplinary expertise. It suggests that the relative absorptive capacity between partner’s economies and the search for novel and complementary knowledge are key drivers of the globalization of innovation. Moreover, the results confirm the moderating effect of non-technological distance factors (spatial proximity, ease of communication, institutional proximity, and overall economic ties) in cross-border innovative relationships. <p><p>The topic of Chapter 5 is the cost-benefit analysis of the creation of a new ‘globalized’ patent: the EU Patent (formerly known as Community Patent) which consists in a single patent covering the entire EU territory for both application procedure and legal enforcement after grant. The objective of this chapter is threefold: (i) simulate the budgetary consequences in terms of renewal fees’ income for the European and national patent offices; (ii) evaluate the implications for the business sector in terms of absolute and relative fees; (iii) assess the total economic impact for the most important actors of the European patent system. Based on an econometric model explaining the determinants of the maintenance rate of patents, the simulations suggest that – with a sound renewal fee structure – the EU patent could generate more income for nearly all patent offices than under the current status quo. It would, at the same time, substantially reduce the relative patenting costs for applicants. Finally, the loss of economic rents by patent attorneys, translators and lawyers, and the drop of controlling power by national patent offices elucidate further the persistence of a fragmented European patent system.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

1. The context: The European patent system has been affected by substantial changes over the past three decades, which have raised vigorous debates at different levels. The main objective of the present dissertation is to contribute to these debates through an exploratory analysis of different changes in patenting practices – in particular the way applications are drafted and filed to patent offices –, their drivers, association with the value of patents, and potential impact on the patent system. The coming essays are therefore empirical in their essence, but are inspired by economic motivations and concerns. Their originality is threefold: it resides in the novelty of the main questions discussed, the comprehensive database specifically built to address them, and the range of statistical methods used for this purpose. The main argument throughout these pages is that patenting practices have significantly evolved in the past decades and that these developments have affected the patent system and could compromise its ability to fulfil its economic purpose. The economic objective of patents is to encourage innovation and its diffusion through the public disclosure of the inventions made. But their exploitation in the knowledge economy has assumed so many different forms that inventors have supposedly developed new patenting and filing strategies to deal with these market conditions or reap the maximum benefits from their patents. The present thesis aims at better understanding the dimensions, determinants, and some potential consequences of these developing practices.<p><p>2. The evolution: Chapter 2 presents a detailed descriptive analysis of the evolution in the size of patent applications filed to the European Patent Office (EPO). In this chapter, we propose two measures of patent voluminosity and identify the main patterns in their evolution. Based on a dataset with about 2 million documents filed at the EPO, the results show that the average voluminosity of patent applications – measured in terms of the number of pages and claims contained in each document – has doubled over the past 25 years. Nevertheless, this evolution varies widely across countries, technologies and filing procedures chosen by the applicant. This increasing voluminosity of filings has a strong impact on the workload of the EPO, which justifies the need for regulatory and policy actions.<p><p>3. The drivers: The evolution in patent voluminosity observed in chapter 2 calls for a multivariate analysis of its determinants. Chapter 3 therefore proposes and tests 4 different hypotheses that may contribute to explaining the observed inflation in size: the influence of national laws and practices and their diffusion to other countries with the progressive globalization of patenting procedures, the complexification of research activities and inventions, the emergence of new sectors with less established norms and vocabularies, and the construction of patent portfolios. The econometric results first reveal that the four hypotheses are significantly associated with longer documents and are therefore empirically supported. It appears however that the first hypothesis – the diffusion of national drafting practices through international patenting procedures – is the strongest contributor of all, resulting in a progressive harmonization of drafting styles toward American standards, which are longer by nature. The portfolio construction hypothesis seems a less important driver but nevertheless highlights substantial changes in patenting practices. These results raise two questions: Do these evolving patenting practices indicate more valuable patents? Do they induce any embarrassment for the patent system?<p><p>4. Measuring patent value: If the former of these two questions is to be addressed, measures are needed to identify higher value patents. Chapter 4 therefore proposes a review of the state of the art on patent value indicators and analyses several issues in their measurement and interpretation. Five classes of indicators proposed in the literature may be obtained directly from patent databases: the number of countries in which each patent is enforced, the number of years during which each patent has been renewed, the grant decision taken, the number of citations received from subsequent patents, and whether it has been opposed by a third party before the EPO. Because the former two measures are closely connected (the geographical scope of protection and length of maintenance can hardly be observed independently), they have been subjected to closer scrutiny in the first section of chapter 4, which shows that these two dimensions have experienced opposite evolutions. A composite measure – the Scope-Year Index – reveals that the overall trend is oriented downwards, which may suggest a substantial decline in the average value of patents. The second section of chapter 4 returns to the five initial classes of measures and underlines their main patterns. It appears that most of them witness the well-known properties of patent value: a severe skewness and large country and technology variations. A closer look at their relationships, however, reveals a high degree of orthogonality between them and opposite trends in their evolution, suggesting that they actually capture different dimensions of a patent’s value and therefore do not always pinpoint the same patents as being the most valuable. This result strongly discourages the reliance on one of the available indicators only and opens some avenue for the creation of one potential composite index of value based upon the five indicators to maximize the chances of capturing all potentially valuable patents in a large database. The proposed index reflects the intensity of the signal provided by all 5 constituting indicators on the potential value of each patent. Its declining trend reflects a rarefaction of this signal on average, leading to different plausible interpretations.<p><p>5. The links with patent value: Based upon the six indicators of value proposed in chapter 4 (the five classical ones plus the composite), the question of the association between filing strategies and the value of patents may be analysed. This question is empirically addressed in chapter 5, which focuses on all EPO patents filed between 1990 and 1995. The first section presents a comprehensive review of the existing evidence on the determinants of patent value. The numerous contributions in the field differ widely along three dimensions (the indicator of value chosen as dependent variable, the sampling methodology, and the set of variables tested as determinants), which have translated into many ambiguities across the literature. Section 2 proposes measures to identify different dimensions of filing strategies, which are essentially twofold: they relate to the routes followed by patent filings toward the EPO (PCT, accelerated processing), and to their form (excess claims, share of claims lost in examination), and construction (by assembly or disassembly, divisional). These measures are then included into an econometric model based upon the framework provided by the literature. The proposed model, which integrates the set of filing strategy variables along with some of the classical determinants, is regressed on the six available indicators separately over the full sample. In addition, the sensitivity of the available results to the indicator and the sampling methodology is assessed through 18 geographic and 14 industrial clustered regressions and about 30 regressions over random samples for each indicator. The estimates are then compared across countries, industries and indicators. These results first reveal that filing strategies are indicative of more valuable patents and provide the most stable determinants of all. And third, the results do confirm some classical determinants in their positive association with patent value, but highlight a high degree of sensitivity of most of them to the indicator or the sample chosen for the analysis, requiring much care in generalizing such empirical results.<p><p>6. The links with patent length: Chapter 6 focuses on one particular dimension of patent value: the length of patents. To do so, the censored nature of the dependent variable (the time elapsed between the filing of a patent application and its ultimate fall into the public domain) dictates the recourse to a survival time model as proposed by Cox (1972). The analysis is original in three main respects. First of all, despite the fact that renewal data have been exploited for about two decades to obtain estimates of patent value (Pakes and Schankerman, 1984), this chapter provides – to the best of our knowledge – the first comprehensive analysis of the determinants of patent length. Second, whereas most of the empirical literature in the field focuses on granted patents and investigates their maintenance, the analysis reported here includes all patent applications. This comprehensive approach is dictated by the provisional rights provided by pending applications to their holders and by the legal uncertainty these represent for competitors. And third, the model integrates a wide set of explanatory variables, starting with the filing strategy variables proposed in chapter 5. The main results are threefold: first, they clearly show that patent rights have significantly increased in length over the past decades despite a small apparent decline in the average grant rate, but largely due to the expansion of the examination process. Second, they indicate that most filing strategies induce considerable delays in the examination process, possibly to the benefit of the patentee, but most certainly to the expense of legal uncertainty on the markets. And third, they confirm that more valuable patents (more cited or covering a larger geographical scope) take more time to process, and live longer, whereas more complex applications are associated with longer decision lags, but also with lower grant and renewal rates.<p><p>7. Conclusions: The potential economic consequences and some policy implications of the findings from the dissertation are discussed in chapter 7. The evolution of patenting practices analysed in these works has some direct consequences for the stakeholders of the patent system. For the EPO, they generate a considerable increase in workload, resulting in growing backlogs and processing lags. For innovative firms, this phenomenon translates into an undesired increase in legal uncertainty, for it complicates the assessment of the limits to each party’s rights and hence of the freedom to operate on a market, which is precisely what the so-called ‘patent trolls’ and ‘submariners’ may be looking for. Although empirical evidence is lacking, some fear that this may result in underinvestment in research, development or commercialization activities (e.g. Hall and Harhoff, 2004). In addition, legal uncertainty is synonymous with an increased risk of litigation, which may hamper the development of SMEs and reduce the level of entrepreneurship. Finally, for society, we are left with a contrasted picture, which is hard to interpret. The European patent system wishes to maintain high quality standards to reduce business uncertainty around granted patents, but it is overloaded with the volume of applications filed, resulting in growing backglogs which translate into legal uncertainty surrounding pending applications. The filing strategies that contribute to this situation might reflect a legitimate need for more time and flexibility in filing more valuable patents, but they could also easily turn into real abuses of the system, allowing some patentees to obtain and artificially maintain provisional rights conferred by pending applications on inventions that might not meet the patentability requirements. Distinguishing between these two cases goes beyond the scope of the present dissertation, but should they be found abusive, they should be fought for they consume resources and generate uncertainty. And if legitimate, then they should be understood and the system adapted accordingly (e.g. by adjusting fees to discourage some strategies, raising the inventive step, fine-tuning the statutory term in certain technologies, providing more legal tools for patent examiners to reject unpatentable applications, etc.) so as to better serve the need of inventors for legal protection in a more efficient way, and to adapt the patent system to the challenges it is or will be facing. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Around the world, knowledge and technology transfer have moved to the forefront of attention in economic, social and industrial policy. As the origins of future development increasingly derives from innovation, attention is paid more and more to non-traditional sources that have the potential to become the basis for creation of new businesses or the catalyser for the rejuvenation of old ones. Among those sources, we find university. These last years, academic patents have been one of the emerging phenomena witnessing the growing evolvement of university in the innovation process. The aim of this doctoral dissertation is to analyse the transfer of technology from university to industry through the analysis of patents. This work pursuits a threefold approach. First, it intends to analyse which characteristics determine the propensity of a university to get involved in technology transfer and more specifically to apply for a patent. Second, it disentangles the underlining value determinants of the patents to decode the value of academic patents and to identify the research processes that are leading to the most valuable inventions. Finally, it investigates the relevancy of academic patenting for innovation in general and wonders if on the long run, such practices could put innovation at risk. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Ce mémoire étudie le risque de longévité pour un régime de retraite à prestations déterminées dans un contexte québécois et canadien. On le définit comme le risque que les retraités vivent significativement plus longtemps que prévu, occasionnant des pertes pour le régime. Afin de le quantifier, on a recours à des données du Régime de pensions du Canada (RPC), du Régime de rentes du Québec (RRQ) et de la Base de données sur la longévité canadienne (BDLC) permettant l’utilisation de différentes variables explicatives (âge, année, cohorte, revenu et région). Une projection stochastique de la mortalité sur plusieurs sous-populations est effectuée selon un cadre général inspiré de Hunt et Blake (2014) et une approche de modèle relatif de Villegas et Haberman (2014). Selon les modèles identifiés et retenus dans ce mémoire, une évolution défavorable de la mortalité pour un régime de retraite, à un niveau de confiance de 95 %, pourrait occasionner une hausse d’environ 5% du coût des rentes pour les femmes et de 10 à 15 % du coût des rentes pour les hommes. Ces hausses de coût se comparent, pour une hypothèse de rendement de 4 % (i = 4,0 %), à une diminution de 0,4 % (i = 3,6 %) de cette hypothèse pour les femmes et de 1,0 % (i = 3,0 %) pour les hommes. Également, les résultats de la modélisation tendent à démontrer l’ordre suivant quant à l’importance relative des variables étudiées afin d’expliquer le niveau de la mortalité des femmes et des hommes : 1) l’âge 2) l’année 3) le revenu (proxy socio-économique) 4) la région (RPC vs RRQ). Il n’a pas été possible de déterminer qu’une variable de cohorte était nécessaire pour améliorer la modélisation de la mortalité des retraités canadiens.

Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished