The current thesis titled "Credit risk of central bank foreign exchange operations" aims to explain the concept of credit risk and its types from theoretical perspective and to define sources of credit risk that are specific for central banks and which arise from central bank's operations. It also aims at the analysis of possible methods of credit risk limitation. The practical part of this thesis is dedicated to the study of specific sources of credit risk as well as methods of credit risk management which are presented on the examples of the central banks of Great Britain, Japan and the European central bank. Closer attention is also paid to the response of these central banks to the 2008 financial crisis and the impact that this crisis had on the extent of their exposure to credit risk.

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Diploma thesis is intended on a financial situation of the company in 2004 - 2007. Financial analysis has been applied in this work. New results have been mentioned in the first part of the thesis. The analysis builds up on these results. The aim of the work is to improve the situation in the company Střecha.

My diploma thesis designs a suitable alternace of shifting a production for Havlík Opal Ltd. company. This step should fulfil the firms requierements to lower the costs, savings creation, modersination of technology, production atuomation and help to generate higher profit.

Цифровые продажи с помощью подходов Cross-sell и Up-sell являются эффективной стратегией привлечения прибыли от новой и действующей клиентской базы. Цель данной работы – разработать систему Cross-sell и Up-sell продаж для банковской кредитной организации. В рамках работы, приводится решение по реализации алгоритма прогнозирования продуктового набора клиента с учётом экономических показателей. Проект показал высокую экономическую эффективность. / Digital selling through cross-sell and up-sell approaches is an effective strategy to generate revenue from a new and existing customer base. The purpose of this work is to develop a system of Cross-sell and Up-sell sales for a bank credit institution. As part of the work, a solution is provided for the implementation of an algorithm for predicting the client's product mix, taking into account economic indicators. The project has shown high economic efficiency.

In the literature there are mixed results on the link between credit and agricultural output growth. Some authors argue that credit leads to growth in agricultural output. Others view growth as one of the factors that influence credit supply, thus growth leads and credit follows. By and large, studies have not endeavoured to establish the short-run impact of agricultural credit on output. They are generally limited in establishing the long-run relationship between credit and agricultural output and thus present a research gap in this respect. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by focusing on the finance-growth nexus at sectoral level as a departure from extant literature that has focused on the macroeconomic level. Using South African data, the study investigated the causal relationship between the supply of credit and agricultural output as well as whether the two are cointegrated and have a short-run relationship. The study found that bank credit and agricultural output are cointegrated. Using the error correction model (ECM), the results showed that, in the short-run, bank credit has a negative impact on agricultural output, reflecting the uncertainties of institutional credit in South Africa. However, the ECM coefficient shows that the supply of agricultural credit rapidly adjusts to short-term disturbances, indicating that there is no room for tardiness in the agricultural sector. The absence of institutional credit will immediately be replaced by availability of other credit facilities from non-institutional sources. Conventional Granger causality tests show unidirectional causality from (1) bank credit to agricultural output growth, (2) agricultural output to capital formation, (3) agricultural output to labour, (4) capital formation to credit, and (5) capital formation to labour, and a bi-directional causality between credit and labour. Noteworthy and significant for South Africa is that for the agricultural sector, the direction of causality is from finance to growth, in other words supply-leading, whereas at the macroeconomic level, the direction of causality is from economic growth to finance, in other words, demand-leading. Applying a structural equation modelling approach to survey data of smallholder farmers, the positive relationship between bank credit and agricultural output observed from analysis of secondary data was confirmed. / Business Management / DCOM (Business Management)

This study provides evidence of the relationship between bank-granted credit and business cycles in South Africa. The study is conducted in three phases, namely qualitative research (Phase I), quantitative research (Phase II) and econometric analysis (Phase III). A sequential (connected data) mixed methodology (Phase I and II) is used to collect and analyze primary data from market participants. The qualitative research (Phase I) involves structured interviews with influential or well informed people on the subject matter. Phase I of the study is used to understand the key determinants of bank credit in South Africa and to appreciate how each of the credit aggregates behaves during alternate business cycles. Qualitative survey results suggest key determinants of commercial bank credit in South Africa as economic growth, collateral value, bank competition, money supply, deposit liabilities, capital requirements, bank lending rates and inflation. The qualitative results are used to formulate questions of the structured survey questionnaire (Quantitative research- Phase II). The ANOVA and Pearman’s product correlation analysis techniques are used to assess relationship between variables. The quantitative results show that there is direct and positive relationship between bank lending behavior and credit aggregates namely economic growth, collateral value, bank competition and money supply. On the other hand, the results show that there is a negative relationship between credit growth and bank capital and lending rates. Overall, the quantitative findings show that bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. The survey results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Phase III of the study re-examines econometric relationship between bank lending and business cycles. The study employs cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques in order to test for existence of long-run relationship between the selected variables. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector. The econometric test results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between economic growth and bank credit extension. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa. Overall, the results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between macroeconomic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa needs to give policy priority to promotion and development of the real sector of the economy to propel and accelerate credit extension. Economic growth is considered as the significant policy variable to stimulate credit extension. The findings therefore hold important implications for both theory and policy. / Business Management / D.B.L.

Bien que les pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale montrent de plus en plus des similitudes structurelles avec des pays développés, leurs économies restent vulnérables aux facteurs d’instabilité financière caractéristiques aux pays en développement. La présence de ces vulnérabilités a conduit aux débats sur les avantages de l’adhésion rapide à l’Union Economique et Monétaire (UEM). Traditionnellement, selon de la Théorie des Zones Monétaires Optimales, l’adoption de l’euro peut être bénéfique éliminant le risque du taux de change, donnant un meilleur accès au financement externe et atténuant l’impact des crises financières. De l’autre côté, l’abandon de l’autonomie de la politique monétaire et du taux de change prive les autorités nationales d’une marge de manœuvre dans le cas où le pays soit touché par les chocs asymétriques (d’offre) ou sa réponse aux chocs symétriques diverge de celle de la zone monétaire. L’objective de cette thèse est de déterminer les vulnérabilités financières des PECO et le degré d’asymétrie de leurs économies afin de participer aux débats sur la stratégie d’adhésion à l’euro. / Although the Central and Eastern European countries show in many respects increasing similarities to developed economies they still present some characteristics pointing to potential sources of increased financial vulnerability. The presence of these vulnerabilities has raised the discussion about whether early euro adoption could represent an effective policy remedy for the CEECs’ economies. Traditionally, in the sense of the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) Theory, the arguments vary between two points of view. On the one side, the EMU adhesion would have a beneficial effect eliminating exchange rate risks, giving a better access to external financing and attenuating the impact of financial crises. On the other side, EMU membership may not protect these countries against asymmetric shocks. In fact, in the case of (real) asymmetric shocks or asymmetric response to common (real and nominal) shocks, the output and employment costs of the euro adoption could be very high. The objective of this dissertation is to study these issues, focusing first on potential source of financial vulnerabilities, and then to assess the degree of the CEECs’ shock asymmetry to participate in debates on the euro adoption.

In the literature there are mixed results on the link between credit and agricultural output growth. Some authors argue that credit leads to growth in agricultural output. Others view growth as one of the factors that influence credit supply, thus growth leads and credit follows. By and large, studies have not endeavoured to establish the short-run impact of agricultural credit on output. They are generally limited in establishing the long-run relationship between credit and agricultural output and thus present a research gap in this respect. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by focusing on the finance-growth nexus at sectoral level as a departure from extant literature that has focused on the macroeconomic level. Using South African data, the study investigated the causal relationship between the supply of credit and agricultural output as well as whether the two are cointegrated and have a short-run relationship. The study found that bank credit and agricultural output are cointegrated. Using the error correction model (ECM), the results showed that, in the short-run, bank credit has a negative impact on agricultural output, reflecting the uncertainties of institutional credit in South Africa. However, the ECM coefficient shows that the supply of agricultural credit rapidly adjusts to short-term disturbances, indicating that there is no room for tardiness in the agricultural sector. The absence of institutional credit will immediately be replaced by availability of other credit facilities from non-institutional sources. Conventional Granger causality tests show unidirectional causality from (1) bank credit to agricultural output growth, (2) agricultural output to capital formation, (3) agricultural output to labour, (4) capital formation to credit, and (5) capital formation to labour, and a bi-directional causality between credit and labour. Noteworthy and significant for South Africa is that for the agricultural sector, the direction of causality is from finance to growth, in other words supply-leading, whereas at the macroeconomic level, the direction of causality is from economic growth to finance, in other words, demand-leading. Applying a structural equation modelling approach to survey data of smallholder farmers, the positive relationship between bank credit and agricultural output observed from analysis of secondary data was confirmed. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

Submitted by André Fava Pestana (afpestana@gmail.com) on 2014-12-23T22:09:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 441121 bytes, checksum: d3fd4490be660a716f9368bbf366064e (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado André, Não deve constar números de página nas páginas de 1 á 8. Peço a gentileza de excluir estes números e postar novamente. Lembrando que o Sumário está correto, seu trabalho se inicia na página 9. À disposição para qualquer esclarecimento. Att. Renata Souza Cursos de Pós-Graduação (55 11) 3799-7764 SRA - Secretaria de Registros Acadêmicos on 2014-12-29T11:26:26Z (GMT) / Submitted by André Fava Pestana (afpestana@gmail.com) on 2014-12-29T13:32:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2014-12-29T13:37:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-01-05T11:30:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_AFP_MPFE_VersãoFinal.pdf: 442163 bytes, checksum: c1d9e18d4959a2ad10458a4c85047465 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-12-19 / Banks, as diligent agents, actively monitor their debtors in order to obtain a precise assessment of their financial position. This monitoring stance usually allows them to access non-public information regarding a firm and its business, and acquire hold up power in the credit granting activity. This hold up power is believed to allow banks to charge the firm higher interest rates than otherwise would be justified by the company’s credit risk profile through the economic cycle, mainly during recessions. The presence of hold up power is tested on this paper in businesses more or less dependent on bank credit. By comparing the evolution of bank spreads paid by Brazilian public companies with and without access to the corporate bond market and through the economic cycle comprising the 2009 crisis, some insight is gained on the impact of an economic downturn and of holding corporate bonds in reducing the bank’s hold up power and hence the spreads paid by the company. Data from 50 firms for the years 2007 to 2013 were organized in a panel and modeled using the Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) technique, as an alternative to the classic Least Squares (LS) technique. The dummies, i) access to corporate bond credit, ii) economic recession and iii) interaction of the 2 previous variables were created and tested after controlling for firm specific factors such as credit restriction, firm size, leverage, etc and statistical evidence was found supporting the intuition that having access to the bond market can reduce the bank spreads during recessions. / A concessão de crédito bancário demanda esforço do agente credor que se dedica de forma ativa na obtenção de informações relativas à firma, até então não disponíveis ao público. Dado o hold up power do banco detentor de informações não públicas, este deveria poder cobrar spreads mais altos do que seria justificado unicamente pelo risco de crédito do tomador ao longo dos ciclos econômicos, sendo tal dinâmica mais acentuada em cenários de crise. Testa-se aqui esta hipótese e para isso são comparadas as variações do spread bancário médio da dívida de empresas brasileiras com diferentes composições de endividamento, levando-se em conta sua dependência do crédito bancário. Foram criadas: i) uma variável dummy identificando o acesso ao crédito direto para que se pudesse avaliar o seu efeito nos spreads; ii) outra dummy identificando cenários de recessão que permite avaliar o impacto do ciclo econômico nos spreads e iii) dummy interação que viabilizou o estudo do efeito combinado das duas variáveis anteriores. Fatores de risco individuais da firma, tais como tamanho, nível de alavancagem e sua natureza em termos de restrição a crédito foram controlados na análise. Os dados foram organizados em painel com os quais foi montada regressão linear valendo-se da técnica Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS), alternativa ao Least Squares (LS) clássico. Encontrou-se evidência estatística de que em cenários de recessão econômica o acesso ao mercado direto de crédito traz efeito benéfico sobre os spreads bancários pagos pelas firmas.