Climatic variations, together with large-scale environmental forces and human development affect the quality of coastal recreational waters, creating potential risks to human health. These environmental forces, including increased temperature and precipitation, often promote specific vector-borne diseases in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Human activities affect water quality through discharges from urban areas, including nutrient and other pollutants derived from wastewater systems. Both water quality of recreational beaches and vector-borne diseases can be better managed by understanding their relationship with local environmental forces. I evaluated how changes in vector-borne diseases and poor recreational water quality were related to specific environmental factors through the application of satellite-derived observations, field observations, and public health records. Variability in dengue fever incidence rates in coastal towns of the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) was evaluated with respect to environmental factors in Chapter Two. Correlations between fecal indicator bacteria concentrations (i.e., culturable enterococci) at Escambron Beach (San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA) and regional environmental factors are discussed in Chapter Three. Predictions of dengue fever occurrences in the Yucatan Peninsula were tested using a nonlinear approach (i.e., Artificial Neural Networks) and are presented in Chapter Four. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model was also used to predict culturable enterococci concentration exceeding safe recreational water quality standards in Escambron Beach and results are presented in Chapter Five. Environmental factors assessed to understand their influence on dengue fever occurrences and culturable enterococci concentrations included precipitation, mean sea level (MSL), air temperatures (e.g., maximum, minimum, and average), humidity, and satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST), dew point, direct normal irradiance (DNI), and turbidity. These factors were combined with demographic data (e.g., population size) and compared with dengue fever incidence rates and culturable enterococci concentration using linear and nonlinear statistical approaches. Dengue incidence rates in Yucatan (Mexico) generally increased in July/August and decreased during November/December. A linear regression model showed that previous dengue incidence rates explained 89% of dengue fever variability (p < 0.05). Dengue incidence two weeks prior (previous incidence) influences future outbreaks by allowing the virus to continue propagating. Yet dengue incidence was best explained by precipitation, minimum air temperature, humidity, and SST (p < 0.05). Dengue incidence variability was best explained by SST and minimum air temperature in our study region (r = 0.50 and 0.48, respectively). Increases in SST preceded increased dengue incidence rate by eight weeks. Dengue incidence time series were positively correlated to SST and minimum air temperature anomalies. This is related to the virus and mosquito behavior. Including oceanographic variables among environmental factors in the model improved modelling skill of dengue fever in Mexico. Chapter Three shows that precipitation, MSL, DNI, SST, and turbidity explained some of the enterococci variation in Escambron Beach surface waters (AIC = 26.76; r = 0.20). Variation in these parameters preceded increased culturable enterococci concentrations, with lags spanning from 24 h up to 11 days. The highest influence on culturable enterococci was precipitation between 480 mm–900 mm. Rainy events often result in overflows of sewage systems and other non-point sources near Escambron Beach in Puerto Rico. A significant decrease in culturable enterococci concentrations was observed during increased irradiance (r = -0.24). This may be due to bacterial inactivation. Increased culturable enterococci concentrations were significantly associated with higher turbidity daily anomalies (r = 0.25), in part because bacteria were protected from light inactivation. Increased culturable enterococci concentrations were related to warmer SST anomalies (r = 0.12); this is likely due to increased bacterial activity and reproduction. Higher culturable enterococci concentrations were also significantly correlated to medium to high values of dew point daily anomalies (r = 0.19). A significant decrease in culturable enterococci during higher daily MSL anomalies (r = -0.19) is possibly due to dilution of bacteria in beach waters, whereas during lower MSL anomalies the back-washing promotes increased bacteria concentrations through mixing from sediments. These environmental variables improve our understanding of the ecology of these bacteria over time. The predictive capability increases by including more than one environmental variable. Chapter Four explains a predictive model of dengue fever occurrences in San Juan, Puerto Rico (1994–2012), and Yucatan (2007–2012). The model was modified to predict dengue fever outbreak occurrences for two population segments: population at risk of infection (i.e., < 24 years old) and vulnerable population (i.e., < 5 years old and > 65 years old). There were a total of four predictive models, two sets for each location using the specified population segments. Model predictions showed previous dengue cases, minimum air temperature, date, and population size as the factors with the most influence to predict dengue fever outbreak occurrences in Mexico. Previous dengue cases, maximum air temperature, date, and population size were the most influential factors for San Juan, Puerto Rico. The models showed an accuracy around 50% and a predictive capability of 70%. These environmental and demographic variables are important primary predictors for dengue fever outbreaks in Puerto Rico and Mexico. Chapter Five shows the application of the ANNs model to predict culturable enterococci exceedance based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Recreational Water Quality Criteria (RWQC) at Escambron Beach, San Juan, Puerto Rico. The model identified DNI, turbidity, 48 h cumulative precipitation, MSL, and SST as the most influential factors to predict enterococci concentration exceedance, based on the U.S. EPA RWQC at Escambron Beach from 2005–2014. The model showed an accuracy of 76%, with a predictive capability greater than 60%, which is higher than linear models. Results showed the applicability of remote sensing data and ANNs to predict recreational water quality and help improve early warning system and public health. This work helps to better understand complex relationships between climatic variations and public health issues in tropical coastal areas and provides information that can be used by public health practitioners.

[Truncated abstract] With rapidly increasing population densities along coastlines and rising global sea levels, coastal protection has become a major concern for coastal communities. Predicting sediment transport in nearshore regions, however, is one of the most challenging tasks faced by coastal researchers in designing coastal structures or beach nourishment schemes. Although nearshore sediment transport mainly occurs in the longshore direction, cross-shore sediment transport is crucial in determining the shoreline evolution and beach morphology . . . This study investigated the factors influencing sediment re-suspension and cross-shore suspended sediment flux in the frequency domain through a series of field measurements conducted at several different locations and a numerical model. Only oscillatory flow components were examined and the mean flow components were not considered. Although many different factors such as cross-shore location with respect to breaker line, significant wave height to water depth ratio (Hs/h), normalised horizontal velocity skewness (<u³>/‹u²›³/²), median grain size (d50), breaker type, and wave groupiness appeared to influence the magnitude of cross-shore suspended sediment flux, bed ripples was identified as the major contributing factor in changing the direction of suspended sediment flux due to incident swell waves. Moreover, the direction changed significantly with ripple type. High frequency measurements, obtained to examine the influence of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) on higher sediment suspension events observed under wave groups indicated that higher TKE was generated at the seabed by approaching wave groups, which in turn resulted in higher suspension events.°1

This thesis examines functional relationships between the morphologic, hydrodynamic, ecological and sedimentological characteristics of the Warraber reef platform, an inter-tidal reef island system, Central Torres Strait, Australia (10[degrees] 12??? S, 142 [degrees] 49??? E). Hydrodynamic and sediment-transport experiments were conducted on the reef flat using current meters, water level recorders and directional sediment traps. Results showed dominantly SE flows during the dry season and more variable NW to SE flows during the wet season. Topography and reefal water levels modulated the direction and strength of currents and the generation of wind-waves on the reef flat as well as the passage of waves over the reef rim. These hydrodynamic conditions are sufficient to induce significant transport of moderately fast to slow settling sediment (&gt-5.25 symbol psi) on the reef flat, though the platform as a whole is a relatively closed transport system. Carbonate production was estimated based on the key ecological variables of live assemblage distribution and cover. Overall, only 24% of the reef flat was occupied by carbonate-producing organisms. The average estimated carbonate-production rate for the reef was 1.6 kgm -2y-1 (0.07-4.37 kgm-2y-1). Production is dominated by coral (73%), with subordinate proportions contributed by coralline algae (19%). And molluscs, foraminifera and Halimeda (&lt4%) though actual reef-flat sediments did not reflect this potential. Instead, they were dominated by molluscs (35-55%), coralline algae (16-26%), coral (8-13%), Halimeda (7-8%) and foraminifera (5-10%). Differential rates of carbonate to sediment conversion meant the reef-platform sediments were more closely related to the cover of live organisms than to the contribution of carbonate production by each parent organism. The settling properties of the least altered particles of the five commonest constituents were measured and these provided the basis for an eco-sedimentological model of the reef-platform system. Modelled textures were compared to the actual textures, indicating the degree of textural alteration resulting from a combination of biological and physical processes, including sediment production, hydraulic sorting and mechanical breakdown. This analysis, integrated with the hydrodynamic, exposure and other data, was used to determine reef-platform surface-sediment sources, sinks and transport pathways. In using both the textual and constituent compositional properties of sediments, as well as information on local biological and physical processes, the model approach developed offers progress towards an integrative, interdisciplinary analysis of carbonate environments.

Why do people transgress legal borders on beaches by the lakes and the coastline, despite thefact of a Swedish law defending the beach and a rigorous administration mirroring it? Nationalstudies show great differences in regional and local practice regarding the administration ofthe law of beach defense, Strandskyddslagen.This licentiate thesis explores the administration of Swedish beaches from both an actorand a structural point of view. It was carried out as a case study of three municipalities situatedby the southeast part of the Baltic and inland. The interviewed actors were regional andlocal civil servants including local politicians. The purpose of the thesis was to reveal whatimplications daily practice among civil servants and local politicians have on the forms ofhow beaches are appropriated and dominated. The thesis focus on the dualism of the privateand the public space. Drawing on structural and poststructural theory and qualitative methodologythe importance of methodology is argued. The author use a triangulation of differenttheories and methods. Grounded on interviews, five areas were thematized; ideology, power,professional cultures, communication and mirroring. The thesis reveals that chains of causesto the heterogeneity of the local and regional beach administration, can be investigated moreefficiently by using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methodology.The author found that the administrators personal ideology in relation to the ideology expressedby the law is of importance in the daily practice. He also show how the two mainparts of Strandskyddslagen contribute to the development of two identifiable approaches inthe civil servants practice. This finding he connects with the development of professional staffcultures. Eventually the thesis discuss the importance of interior communication betweendifferent levels of the administration and underpin the rising cost problem when municipalitiesare delegated the main responsibility for mirroring the beaches. This leading to a tendencyof a growing appearance of corporate influence on local public politics regarding exploitationof land close to beaches.The author propose a closer communication between regional and municipal environment-and building administrators. He emphasizes the importance of transparency, communicationand education at both the regional, local administrative and political level of the beachadministration.

Shoreline sand waves are shoreline undulations with a length scale of several kilometres and a time scale of years to decades. They occur on many coasts, migrating in the direction of the dominant littoral drift and they introduce a variability into the shoreline position that can be greater than the long term coastal trend. The objective of this thesis is to provide more insight into the formation and dynamics of shoreline sand waves and, in particular, to explore the role of the so called high angle wave instability. Previous studies showed that the shoreline can be unstable under very oblique wave incidence. This high angle wave instability develops due to the feedback of shoreline changes and the associated changes in the bathymetry into the wave field. Wave propagation over this perturbed bathymetry leads to specific gradients in the alongshore transport that can cause the growth and migration of shoreline sand waves. In this thesis a quasi 2D non-linear morphodynamical model is improved and used to explore high angle wave instability and predict the formation and evolution of shoreline sand waves. The model assumes that the large scale and long term shoreline dynamics is controlled by the wave driven alongshore transport so that the details of the surfzone morphodynamics are not resolved. It overcomes some of the limitations of previous modelling studies on high angle wave instability. The wave field is computed with a simple wave module over the evolving bathymetry and an empirical formula is used to compute the alongshore transport. Cross-shore dynamics is described in a parameterized way and the model is capable of describing shoreline perturbations with a finite and dynamic cross-shore extent. The conditions under which shoreline instability can lead to the formation of shoreline sand waves are refined. Generic simulations with constant wave conditions and random initial perturbations show that the shoreline becomes unstable when the wave incidence angle at the depth of closure (i.e., the most offshore extent of the shoreline perturbations) is larger than a critical angle of about 42 degrees and shoreline sand waves develop in unison. The cross-shore dynamics plays an essential role because it determines the offshore extent of the shoreline perturbations. Using default model parameters, wave conditions and cross-shore profile, the sand waves develop with wavelengths between 2 and 5 km, the time scale for their formation is between 5 and 10 years and they migrate downdrift at about 0.5 km/yr. Simulations with a localized large scale perturbation trigger the formation of a downdrift sand wave train. Larger wave obliquity, higher waves and shorter wave periods strengthen the shoreline instability. A more realistic wave climate, with alternating high and low angle wave incidence reduces the potential for shoreline instability. A percentage of about 80% of high angle waves is required for sand wave formation. It is demonstrated that the range of low wave angles that can occur on a coast is larger than the range of high wave angles, and that the stabilizing effect produced by low angle waves (causing diffusion) is bigger than the destabilizing effect produced by high angle waves (causing growth and migration). Even if high angle waves are not dominant, the instability mechanism might still play a role in the persistence and downdrift migration of large scale shoreline perturbations. The model results are in qualitative agreement with observations of shoreline sand waves. The quasi 2D approach provides new insight into the physical mechanisms behind high angle wave instability and the occurrence of a minimal and optimal length scale for sand wave formation. Essential physical processes are wave energy dispersion due to wave refraction, wave energy focusing near the crest of a sand wave and the monotonic decrease of the gradients in alongshore transport for increasing length scales. / Les ones de sorra a la línia de costa són ondulacions de la línia de costa amb una escala espacial de kilòmetres i una escala temporal d’anys a dècades. Ocorren a moltes costes, migren en la direcció del transport litoral i introdueixen una variabilitat a la línia de costa que pot ser major que la seva tendència a llarg termini. L’objectiu d’aquesta tesi és estudiar amb més profunditat la formació i la dinàmica de les ones de sorra i, més concretament, explorar el rol de l’anomenada inestabilitat d’angle gran. Estudis previs van demostrar que la línia de costa pot ser inestable en cas d’onades obliqües que incideixen amb un angle gran. Aquesta inestabilitat d’angle gran es produeix degut a la retroalimentació entre els canvis a la línia de costa (i els que conseqüentment ocorren a la batimetria) i els canvis al camp d’onades. La propagació de les onades sobre la batimetria pertorbada crea gradients del transport de sediment longitudinal que causen el creixement i la migració de les ones de sorra. En aquesta tesi s’ha millorat un model morfodinàmic quasi 2D i no lineal per usar-lo per explorar la inestabilitat d’angle gran i predir la formació i evolució de les ones de sorra. El model assumeix que la dinàmica a gran escala i llarg termini està dominada pel transport de sediment longitudinal produït per les onades de manera que la morfodinàmica de la zona de rompents no es detalla. S’han superat algunes de les limitacions dels estudis anteriors de modelat de la inestabilitat d’angle gran. El camp d’onades es calcula amb un mòdul senzill de propagació sobre la batimetria canviant i el transport longitudinal s’estima usant una fórmula empírica. La dinàmica transversal es parametritza per descriure pertorbacions de la línia de costa amb una extensió transversal finita i dinàmica. S’han refinat les condicions sota les quals la inestabilitat d’angle gran produeix la formació d’ones de sorra. Les simulacions amb condicions constants d’onades i pertorbacions inicials aleatòries mostren que la línia de costa esdevé inestable quan l’angle d’incidència a la profunditat de tancament és major que un angle de 42 graus i les ones de sorra es desenvolupen a l’uníson. La dinàmica transversal té un rol essencial al determinar l’extensió transversal de les pertorbacions. Usant els valors per defecte dels paràmetres del model, les ones de sorra tenen espaiats d’entre 2 i 5 km i temps de creixement d’entre 5 i 10 anys, i migren en la direcció del transport a uns 0.5 km/any. Les simulacions també mostren que una pertorbació inicial localitzada desencadena la formació d’un tren d’ones de sorra. Com més obliqües i grans són les onades i com menor és el seu període major és la inestabilitat. Un clima d’onatge més realista, alternant onades d’angle d’incidència gran i petit, redueix el potencial de la inestabilitat d’angle gran. Calen almenys un 80% d’onades d’angle gran perquè es formin ones de sorra. El rang d’onades d’angle petit que poden succeir en una costa és major que el d’onades d’angle gran, i l’efecte estabilitzador de les onades d’angle petit (que produeix difusió) és més important que l’efecte desestabilitzador de les onades d’angle gran (que produeix creixement i migració). Fins i tot si les onades d’angle gran no dominen, el mecanisme d’inestabilitat pot tenir un paper important en la persistència i migració de pertorbacions de la línia de costa a gran escala. Els resultats s’assemblen qualitativament a les observacions d’ones de sorra. L’enfocament quasi 2D permet estudiar més detalls del mecanisme físic que hi ha darrere de la inestabilitat d’angle gran i del fet que existeixin longituds d’ona mínima i òptima per la formació d’ones de sorra. Els processos físics essencials són la dispersió de l’energia de l’onatge degut a la refracció, la concentració d’energia de les onades a les crestes de les ones de sorra i el decreixement monòton del transport litoral quan augmenta l’escala espacial.

Beach profile models predict the changes in bathymetry along a line perpendicular to the shoreline. These models are used to forecast bathymetric changes in response to storms, sea level rise or human activities such as dredging and beach nourishment. Process-based models achieve this by simulating the physical processes that drive the sediment transport as opposed to behavior models which simulate observed profile changes without resolving the underlying processes. Some of these processes are wave shoaling and breaking, boundary layer streaming, and offshore-directed undertow currents. These hydrodynamic processes control the sediment processes such as sediment pick-up from the bottom, diffusion of the sediment across the water column and its advection with waves and currents. For this study, newly developed sediment transport and boundary layer models were coupled with existing models of wave transformation, nearshore circulation and bathymetry update, to predict beach profile changes. The models covered the region from the dry land to a depth of 6-8 meters, spanning up to 500 meters in the cross-shore direction. The modeling system was applied at storm time scales, extending from a couple of hours to several days. Two field experiments were conducted at Myrtle Beach, SC, involving the collection of wave, current and bathymetric data as a part of this study. The results were used to calibrate and test the numerical models along with data from various laboratory studies from the literature. The sediment transport model computes the variation of sediment concentrations over a wave period and over the water column, solving the advection-diffusion equation using the Crank-Nicholson finite-difference numerical scheme. Using a new approach, erosion depth thickness and sediment concentrations within the bed were also predicted. The model could predict sediment transport rates for a range of conditions, within a factor of two. It successfully computed the sediment concentration profile over the water column and within the bed and its variation throughout a wave period. Erosion depth and sheet flow layer thickness were also predicted reasonably well. Wave heights across the profile were predicted within ten percent when the empirical wave breaking parameter was tuned appropriately. Mean cross-shore velocities contain more uncertainty, even after tuning. The importance of capturing the location of the maximum, near-bottom, cross-shore velocity when predicting bar behavior was shown. Bar formation, erosion, accretion, onshore and offshore bar movement were all computed with the model successfully

In this study, a two-dimensional depth-averaged beach evolution numerical model is developed to study the medium and long term nearshore sea bottom evolution due to non-cohesive sediment transport under the action of wind waves only over the arbitrary land and sea topographies around existing coastal structures and formations. The developed beach evolution numerical model is composed of four sub-models: a nearshore spectral wave transformation model based on energy balance equation including random wave breaking and diffraction terms to compute the nearshore wave characteristics, a nearshore wave-induced circulation model based on the non-linear shallow water equations to compute the nearshore depth averaged wave-induced current velocities and mean water level changes, a sediment transport model to compute the local total sediment transport rates occurring under the action of wind waves and a bottom evolution model to compute the bed level changes in time due to gradients of sediment transport rates in cross-shore and longshore directions. The governing partial differential equations are solved utilizing finite difference schemes. The developed models are applied successfully to several theoretical and conceptual benchmark cases and an extensive data set of laboratory and field measurements. As an alternative approach to be used in beach evolution problems, a distributed total sediment load formula is proposed based on the assumption that the local total sediment transport rates across the surf zone are proportional to the product of the rate of dissipation of wave energies due to wave breaking and wave-induced current velocities. The proposed distribute load approach is validated with the available laboratory and field measurements.

Models of the fate and transport of river plumes and the bacteria they carry into lakes are developed. They are needed to enable informed decisions about beach closures to avoid economic losses, and to help design water intakes and operate combined sewer overflow schemes to obviate exposure of the public to potential pathogens. This study advances our understanding of river plumes dynamics in coastal waters by means of field studies and numerical techniques. Extensive field measurements were carried out in the swimming seasons of 2006 and 2007 on the Grand River plume as it enters Lake Michigan. They included simultaneous aerial photography, measurements of lake physical properties, the addition of artificial tracers to track the plume, and bacterial sampling. Our observed results show more flow classes than included in previous studies (e.g. CORMIX). Onshore wind can have a significant effect on the plume and whether it impacts the shoreline. A new classification scheme based on the relative magnitude of plume-crossflow length scale and Richardson number based on the wind speed is devised. Previous studies on lateral spreading are complemented with a new relationship in the near field. The plume thickness decreased rapidly with distance from the river mouth and a new non-dimensional relationship to predict thickness is developed. Empirical near field models for surface buoyant plumes are reviewed and a near field trajectory and dilution model for large aspect ratio surface discharge channels is devised. Bacterial reductions due to dilution were generally small (less than 10:1) up to 4.5 km from the river mouth. E. coli decay rates were significantly affected by solar radiation and ranged from 0.2 to 2.2 day-1 which were within the range of previous studies in Lake Michigan. Total coliform survived longer than E. coli suggesting different die-off mechanisms. Mathematical models of the bacterial transport are developed that employ a nested modeling scheme to represent the 3D hydrodynamic processes of surface river discharges in the Great Lakes. A particle tracking model is used that provides the capability to track a decaying tracer and better quantify mixing due to turbulent diffusion. Particle tracking models have considerable advantages over gradient diffusion models in simulating bacterial behavior nearshore that results in an improved representation of bacteria diffusion, decay and transport. Due to the complexity and wide variation of the time and length scale of the hydrodynamic and turbulent processes in the near field (where plume mixing is dominated by initial momentum and buoyancy) and far field (where plume mixing is dominated by ambient turbulence), a coupling technique is adapted. The far field random walk particle tracking model incorporates the empirical near field model. It simulates the transport, diffusion and decay of bacteria as discrete particles and employs the near field output as the source and transports the particles based on ambient currents predicted by the 3D hydrodynamic model. The coupled model improves dilution predictions in the near field. The new techniques advance our knowledge of the nearshore fate and transport of bacteria in the Great Lakes and can be ultimately applied to the NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System to provide a reliable prediction tool for bacterial transport in recreational waters.

Thesis (D.Min.)--Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary, 2006. / Includes abstract and prospectus. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 153-162).

When we consider the nature of the scientific community in conjunction with a sense of typical economic circumstances we find that there are two distinct paths for development. One path involves hypothesis testing and evolution of strategies that are linked with iterations in equipment advances. A second, more complicated scenario, can involve external influences whether economic, political, or otherwise, such as the government closure of NASA's space program in 2011 which will no doubt influence research in associated fields. The following chapters are an account of examples of two statistical techniques and the importance of both on the two relatively unrelated geological fields of coastal geomorphology and ground water hydrology. The first technique applies a multi-dimensional approach to defining groundwater water table response based on precipitation in areas where it can reasonably be assumed to be the only recharge. The second technique applies a high resolution multi-scalar approach to a geologic setting most often restricted to either high resolution locally, or low resolution regionally. This technique uses time-frequency analysis to characterize cuspate patterns in LIDAR data are introduced using examples from the Atlantic coast of Florida, United States. These techniques permit the efficient study of beachface landforms over many kilometers of coastline at multiple spatial scales. From a LIDAR image, a beach-parallel spatial series is generated. Here, this series is the shore-normal position of a specific elevation (contour line). Well-established time-frequency analysis techniques, wavelet transforms, and S-Transforms, are then applied to the spatial series. These methods yield results compatible with traditional methods and show that it is useful for capturing transitions in cuspate shapes. To apply this new method, a land-based LIDAR study allowing for rapid high-resolution surveying is conducted on Melbourne Beach, Florida and Tairua Beach, New Zealand. Comparisons and testing of two different terrestrial scanning stations are evaluated during the course of the field investigation. Significant cusp activity is observed at Melbourne Beach. Morphological observations and sediment analysis are used to study beach cusp morphodynamics at the site. Surveys at Melbourne were run ~500 m alongshore and sediment samples were collected intertidally over a five-day period. Beach cusp location within larger scale beach morphology is shown to directly influence cusp growth as either predominantly erosional or accretional. Sediment characteristics within the beach cusp morphology are reported coincident with cusp evolution. Variations in pthesis size distribution kurtosis are exhibited as the cusps evolve; however, no significant correlation is seen between grain size and position between horn and embayment. During the end of the study, a storm resulted in beach cusp destruction and increased sediment sorting. In the former technique using multi-dimensional studies, a test of a new method for improving forecasting of surficial aquifer system water level changes with rainfall is conducted. The results provide a more rigorous analysis of common predictive techniques and compare them with the results of the tested model. These results show that linear interpretations of response-to-rainfall data require a clarification of how large events distort prediction and how the binning of data can change the interpretation. Analyses show that the binning ground water recharge data as is typically done in daily format may be useful for quick interpretation but only describes how fast the system responds to an event, not the frequency of return of such a response. Without a secure grasp on the nonlinear nature of water table and rainfall data alike, any binning or isolation of specific data carries the potential for aliasing that must be accounted for in an interpretation. The new model is proven capable of supplanting any current linear regression analysis as a more accurate means of prediction through the application of a multivariate technique. Furthermore, results show that in the Florida surficial aquifer system response-to-rainfall ratios exhibit a maxima most often linked with modal stage.