The paper is dedicated to analysis of factors having direct influence on the business cycle of the Czech economy in the previous decade. Indicators for surveillance were chosen not only to inform about current development of the economy but were also chosen such indicators that provide direct news about the status. These both groups were matched and analysed and interlinked in order to get a complex review. The paper comprises a benchmark of the central European region of Visegrad Four -- Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary which enables to assess Czech economy in a broader context.

The dissertation is focused on Information a communications technology (ICT) development's analysis and its economic coincidence. The aim of dissertation is the ICT progress general rules' formulation, gathering from historical data analysis, future progress prediction and consequent economic and social coincidence research. The analytical section assesses the state of technological development and compared its dynamics in various related fields (microelectronics and ICT) metrics of technical parameters (computing power) or economic data (ICT revenue). They are mainly analyzed historical data from the U.S. market over the past 53 years (which are available in an appropriate structure and detail) as well as other 8 states (representatives of the EU: Czech Republic, Germany, Belgium; representatives of Asia: Japan, China, India; representatives of Latin America: Brazil and Argentina) for past 13 years. The main part is devoted to analyzing the time dependence of the ratio of revenues from ICT and GDP in the examined country, which best reflects the influences of the surrounding progress and defines the individual progress stages. It monitored the dynamics of ICT sales, depending on its form (or investment services) and the influence of global and local economy. The output of work is the confirmation of theories: - A smoother development of ICT in their delivery of services in the form of investment compared to sales, - Primary dependence of ICT development on global changes and secondary dependence on changes in local economies. ICT development cycle was formulated in the frame of confirmed theories, it was certified its compliance with J.Schumpeter's theory of innovation cycles according and it was designed by its mathematical model. This work allowed to justify the development of ICT trends and contributed to the prediction of its further progress.

The aim of this thesis is to estimate monthly probability that the Czech economy is in a recession. For this purpose, I construct indexes of coincident and leading variables from multiple time series by Maximum Likelihood. Changes in coincident index are preceded by changes in the leading index by almost one year for peaks and about one month for troughs on average. To assess the probability of recession, I estimate multiple mixture models for growth rates of coincident index focusing on Markov-Switching specification for the latent business cycle process. I found that the two-state Markov-Switching AR (1) is superior to other models based on information criteria. Lagged values of leading index further improve the model fit but the model provides less clear signals of recessions compared to models based solely on coincident index.

Potential output is used as the indicator of the business cycle. The aim of this study is to compare the results of different methods used for estimating potential output and verify the hypothesis that potential output or rather the output gap can serve as a reliable indicator to determine the phase of the business cycle in the Czech Republic in the years 1996-2012. 6 different methods - linear trend, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Baxter-King filter, Butterworth filter, Kalman filter and the production function have been used to estimate potential output. The output gap was determined based on the estimated potential output. The comparison of the results of all methods has confirmed the same development trend of potential output. All the methods for estimating potential output, except Butterworth filter, have showed that their results are good indicators of the business cycle in the Czech Republic.

The master thesis analyses potential impacts of introduction of the quantitative easing by the Czech National Bank as a new monetary instrument in the Czech Republic, which would be used as a means of fight against the economic cycle. Instruments which a central bank can use in the area of monetary policy become limited in the era of major interest rates inclining to zero. Power of conventional means becomes insufficient. As a result, more and more central banks consider introduction of a relatively new instrument -- quantitative easing which is applied e.g. by the FED or the ECB at present. The main goal of the thesis is to assess advantages and disadvantages of introduction of quantitative easing by the Czech National Bank and its ability to influence the economic cycle when basic principles of quantitative easing are applied on a real small opened economy. The output should present analysis and assessment of costs and benefits arising from introduction of quantitative easing. Actual data from the economies, where the quantitative easing has been applied, are analyzed in the thesis. The results of the analysis are used as a basis for creation of a simple universal model of functioning of quantitative easing which is after customizing according to specifics of the Czech economy, applied to the Czech Republic. Three possible scenarios of development of economy after introduction of quantitative easing by the CNB were developed on the basis of the model which differs from each other as they relate to a different phase of economic cycle.

This diploma thesis focuses on political-business cycle which is a theme frequently omitted in discussions about economic situation in the Czech Republic. Theoretical part of the work will provide readers with the topic of political-business cycle and its basic models which will serve as a support to the statistical research in the analytical part. Is fiscal policy in hands of Czech politicians an efficient tool to manipulate voters? The aim of the work is to answer this question and thus give a detailed look of political-business cycle on example of four regular electoral periods of Czech Parliament. To reach the goal of diploma thesis, we used regressive analysis to examine hypothesis if the date of elections influences certain folders of income and expenses of government budget. This hypothesis was not accepted on the significance level of 5 per cent. The reasons are mainly short time series of tested indicators.

This thesis tries to describe government help to economy during the period of crisis in years 2006 -- 2013 in USA and Iceland with regard to Austrian business cycle theory. This thesis stands critical toward connection of fiscal and monetary policy and their activist policy because this policy was one of the causes of economical fluctuation in last years. Help of fiscal policy connected with monetary policy took primarily form of providing liquidity to financial sector and granting government guarantees to financial institutions and bailing out their risky assets. Regulatory measures are subjected to closer analysis and are commented according to data analysis.

This thesis deals with influence of the economic cycle in the automotive industry in the Czech Republic in 2003 - 2014. It describes the basic economic theories of economic cycles. It analyzes the impact of the economy growth on the production of automobiles on overall production and also to individual automakers in the Czech Republic, particularly carmakers Škoda Auto, TPCA and Hyundai. It is compared with the situation of the Slovak Republic, Germany and the USA. It was also studied the impact of the economic cycle on the demand for new vehicles according to the number of first registrations of new cars. Also evaluated was the impact of "scrapping" on sales and production.

The current study applies a two-state switching regression model to examine the behavior of a hypothetical portfolio of ten socially responsible (SRI) equity mutual funds during the expansion and contraction phases of US business cycles between April 1991 and June 2009, based on the Carhart four-factor model, using monthly data. The model identified a business cycle effect on the performance of SRI equity mutual funds. Fund returns were less volatile during expansion/peaks than during contraction/troughs, as indicated by the standard deviation of returns. During contraction/troughs, fund excess returns were explained by the differential in returns between small and large companies, the difference between the returns on stocks trading at high and low Book-to-Market Value, the market excess return over the risk-free rate, and fund objective. During contraction/troughs, smaller companies offered higher returns than larger companies (ci = 0.26, p = 0.01), undervalued stocks out-performed high growth stocks (hi = 0.39, p i = 0.01, p = 0.02). The hypothetical SRI portfolio was less risky than the market (bi = 0.74, p i = -0.01, p = 0.03). The hypothetical SRI portfolio exhibited similar risk as the market (bi = 0.93, p

Cette thèse étudie des sujets hétérogènes puisqu'elle s’intéresse à la fois à l'économie du logement et à la politique monétaire internationale à l’aide de divers outils, tels que la modélisation théorique, l’évaluation microéconomique d’une politique publique, et une approche macroéconomique empirique. Elle est constituée de trois chapitres. Le premier, co-écrit avec Eric Monnet, s'intéresse à la relation entre les changements démographiques au sein des pays et l’investissement résidentiel. Le second, co-écrit avec Guillaume Chapelle et Benjamin Vignolles, évalue l'impact d'un dispositif d’incitation fiscale à l’investissement locatif sur plusieurs dimensions du marché du logement français. Enfin, le troisième étudie comment la politique monétaire devrait réagir aux afflux de capitaux en cas de frictions sur le marché financier. / This thesis investigates heterogeneous topics since it is related to both housing economics and monetary economics, and uses various tools including theoretical modeling, microeconomic policy evaluation and macroeconomic empirical approach. It is constituted of three chapters. The first one, co-authored with Eric Monnet, is interested in the relationship between demographic changes within countries and housing investment. The second one, co-authored with Guillaume Chapelle and Benjamin Vignolles, assesses the impact of a housing tax credit on several dimensions of the housing market. Finally, the third one studies how monetary policy should react to capital inflows when there are frictions on the financial market.